title: Quantitative risk assessment of human salmonellosis and listeriosis related to the consumption of raw milk in Italy.
abstract: Two quantitative risk assessment (RA) models were developed to describe the risk of salmonellosis and listeriosis linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. Exposure assessment considered the official microbiological records monitoring raw milk samples from vending machines performed by the regional veterinary authorities from 2008 to 2011, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, and consumption preference. Two separate RA models were developed: one for the consumption of boiled milk and the other for the consumption of raw milk. The RA models predicted no human listeriosis cases per year either in the best or worst storage conditions and with or without boiling raw milk, whereas the annual estimated cases of salmonellosis depend on the dose-response relationships used in the model, the milk storage conditions, and consumer behavior in relation to boiling raw milk or not. For example, the estimated salmonellosis cases ranged from no expected cases, assuming that the entire population boiled milk before consumption, to a maximum of 980,128 cases, assuming that the entire population drank raw milk without boiling, in the worst milk storage conditions, and with the lowest dose-response model. The findings of this study clearly show how consumer behavior could affect the probability and number of salmonellosis cases and in general, the risk of illness. Hence, the proposed RA models emphasize yet again that boiling milk before drinking is a simple yet effective tool to protect consumers against the risk of illness inherent in the consumption of raw milk. The models may also offer risk managers a useful tool to identify or implement appropriate measures to control the risk of acquiring foodborne pathogens. Quantification of the risks associated with raw milk consumption is necessary from a public health perspective.
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, University of Bologna, Via Tolara di Sopra, 50-40064 Ozzano Emilia, Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Federica
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Giacometti
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Lombardy and Emilia Romagna, Via Pitagora, 2-42100 Reggio Emilia, Italy.
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Bonilauri
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, University of Bologna, Via Tolara di Sopra, 50-40064 Ozzano Emilia, Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Sabrina
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Albonetti
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Lazio and Tuscany, Via Appia Nuova, 1411-00187 Rome (Campanelle), Italy.
authors.forename: Simonetta
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Amatiste
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Lombardy and Emilia Romagna, Strada della Faggiola, 1-29027 Gariga di Podenzano (PC), Italy.
authors.forename: Norma
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Arrigoni
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Piedmont, Liguria and Valle D'Aosta, Via Bologna, 148-10154 Turin, Italy.
authors.forename: Manila
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bianchi
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Lombardy and Emilia Romagna, Via Bianchi, 7/9-25124 Brescia, Italy.
authors.forename: Barbara
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Bertasi
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Lazio and Tuscany, Via Appia Nuova, 1411-00187 Rome (Campanelle), Italy.
authors.forename: Stefano
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bilei
authors.affiliation: National Reference Centre for Cattle Milk Quality, Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Lombardy and Emilia Romagna, 7/9-25124 Brescia, Italy.
authors.forename: Giuseppe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Bolzoni
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Sicily, Via G. Marinuzzi, 3-90129, Palermo, Italy.
authors.forename: Giuseppe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Cascone
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Venice, Viale dell'Università, 10-35020 Legnaro, Padua, Italy.
authors.forename: Damiano
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Comin
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Lombardy and Emilia Romagna, Via Bianchi, 7/9-25124 Brescia, Italy.
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Daminelli
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Piedmont, Liguria and Valle D'Aosta, Via Bologna, 148-10154 Turin, Italy.
authors.forename: Lucia
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Decastelli
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Lombardy and Emilia Romagna, Via P. Fiorini, 5-40127 Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Giuseppe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Merialdi
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Venice, Viale dell'Università, 10-35020 Legnaro, Padua, Italy.
authors.forename: Renzo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mioni
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, University of Bologna, Via Tolara di Sopra, 50-40064 Ozzano Emilia, Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Angelo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Peli
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Umbria and Marche, Via G. Salvemini, 1-06162 Perugia, Italy.
authors.forename: Annalisa
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Petruzzelli
authors.affiliation: Experimental Institute for Zooprophylaxis in Lombardy and Emilia Romagna, Via P. Fiorini, 5-40127 Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Franco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Tonucci
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Bari, Strada Provinciale per Casamassima, km 3, 70010 (BA), Italy.
authors.forename: Elisabetta
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bonerba
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, University of Bologna, Via Tolara di Sopra, 50-40064 Ozzano Emilia, Bologna, Italy. andrea.serraino@unibo.it.
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Serraino
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D005509:Food Dispensers, Automatic / Q000592:standards; D005511:Food Handling; D005516:Food Microbiology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008089:Listeria monocytogenes / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D008088:Listeriosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D008892:Milk / Q000382:microbiology*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016011:Normal Distribution; D066256:Raw Foods / Q000382:microbiology*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012475:Salmonella / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D012478:Salmonella Food Poisoning / Q000453:epidemiology