title: The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.
abstract: This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania.
authors.forename: Barbara
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Mellers
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania.
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Stone
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania.
authors.forename: Pavel
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Atanasov
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania.
authors.forename: Nick
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Rohrbaugh
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania.
authors.forename: S Emlen
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Metz
authors.affiliation: Department of Computer Science, University of Pennsylvania.
authors.forename: Lyle
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ungar
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania.
authors.forename: Michael M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Bishop
authors.affiliation: Department of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Horowitz
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Missouri.
authors.forename: Ed
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Merkle
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania.
authors.forename: Philip
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Tetlock
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007360:Intelligence; D007600:Judgment; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011057:Politics; D011336:Probability; D011580:Psychological Techniques