title: [A study of GM (1, 1) model for predicting the incidence trends of pneumoconiosis cases of an area].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To explore the application of the gray series model GM (1, 1) in predicting trends in the incidence of pneumoconiosis and evaluate its degree of predicted precision.
  
  
  METHODS
  Analyzing the incidence of pneumoconiosis in this region from 2009 to 2013, and predicting the incidence of pneumoconiosis of the area in 2014-2016 by establishing GM (1, 1) according to the gray system theory.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Using occupational pneumoconiosis population data from 2009 to 2013, to establish GM (1, 1) model: yt = 1396.89e(0.12(t-1)), α = -0.12, µ = 147.2. The pneumoconiosis in 2014, 2015, 2016 were predicted respectively 51, 47, 43 cases based on the GM (1, 1) model, and C value of model is 0.15, P value is 1, all of them meet the requirements of model predictions. It shows the cases of pneumoconiosis are rising significantly.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  GM (1, 1) model can be used to predict the recent trend in the incidence of pneumoconiosis.
authors.affiliation: Foshan Institute of Occupational Disease Prevention and Control. Foshan Guangdong 528000. China.
authors.forename: Qiang
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Tan
authors.forename: Chunhui
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Gu
authors.forename: Yao
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.forename: Jiancong
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.forename: Songgen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: E-mail: ymliu61@163.com.
authors.forename: Yimin
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011009:Pneumoconiosis / Q000453:epidemiology*