title: Predicting graft loss by 1 year in pediatric heart transplantation candidates: an analysis of the Pediatric Heart Transplant Study database.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Pediatric data on the impact of pre-heart transplantation (HTx) risk factors on early post-HTx outcomes remain inconclusive. Thus, among patients with previous congenital heart disease or cardiomyopathy, disease-specific risk models for graft loss were developed with the use pre-HTx recipient and donor characteristics.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Patients enrolled in the Pediatric Heart Transplant Study (PHTS) from 1996 to 2006 were stratified by pre-HTx diagnosis into cardiomyopathy and congenital heart disease cohorts. Logistic regression identified independent, pre-HTx risk factors. Risk models were constructed for 1-year post-HTx graft loss. Donor factors were added for model refinement. The models were validated with the use of patients transplanted from 2007 to 2009. Risk factors for graft loss were identified in patients with cardiomyopathy (n=896) and congenital heart disease (n=965). For cardiomyopathy, independent risk factors were earlier year of transplantation, nonwhite race, female sex, diagnosis other than dilated cardiomyopathy, higher blood urea nitrogen, and panel reactive antibody >10%. The recipient characteristic risk model had good accuracy in the validation cohort, with predicted versus actual survival of 97.5% versus 95.3% (C statistic, 0.73). For patients with congenital heart disease, independent risk factors were nonwhite race, history of Fontan, ventilator dependence, higher blood urea nitrogen, panel reactive antibody >10%, and lower body surface area. The risk model was less accurate, with 86.6% predicted versus 92.4% actual survival, in the validation cohort (C statistic, 0.63). Donor characteristics did not enhance model precision.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Risk factors for 1-year post-HTx graft loss differ on the basis of pre-HTx cardiac diagnosis. Modeling effectively stratifies the risk of graft loss in patients with cardiomyopathy and may be an adjunctive tool in allocation policies and center performance metrics.
authors.affiliation: From University of Michigan, Mott Children's Hospital, Ann Arbor (K.R.S., M.Z., R.J.G.); Lucille Packard Children's Hospital, Palo Alto, CA (C.A.); Children's Hospital, Boston, MA (T.P.S.); Freeman Hospital, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (R.K.); Children's Hospital of Omaha, NE (R.S.); Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH (T.M.H.); Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Bronx, NY (D.H.); University of Alabama at Birmingham (D.C.N., E.P.); and St. Louis Children's Hospital, MO (C.E.C.). kurts@med.umich.edu.
authors.forename: Kurt R
authors.initials: KR
authors.lastname: Schumacher
authors.affiliation: From University of Michigan, Mott Children's Hospital, Ann Arbor (K.R.S., M.Z., R.J.G.); Lucille Packard Children's Hospital, Palo Alto, CA (C.A.); Children's Hospital, Boston, MA (T.P.S.); Freeman Hospital, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (R.K.); Children's Hospital of Omaha, NE (R.S.); Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH (T.M.H.); Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Bronx, NY (D.H.); University of Alabama at Birmingham (D.C.N., E.P.); and St. Louis Children's Hospital, MO (C.E.C.).
authors.forename: Christopher
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Almond
authors.affiliation: From University of Michigan, Mott Children's Hospital, Ann Arbor (K.R.S., M.Z., R.J.G.); Lucille Packard Children's Hospital, Palo Alto, CA (C.A.); Children's Hospital, Boston, MA (T.P.S.); Freeman Hospital, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (R.K.); Children's Hospital of Omaha, NE (R.S.); Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH (T.M.H.); Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Bronx, NY (D.H.); University of Alabama at Birmingham (D.C.N., E.P.); and St. Louis Children's Hospital, MO (C.E.C.).
authors.forename: Tajinder P
authors.initials: TP
authors.lastname: Singh
authors.affiliation: From University of Michigan, Mott Children's Hospital, Ann Arbor (K.R.S., M.Z., R.J.G.); Lucille Packard Children's Hospital, Palo Alto, CA (C.A.); Children's Hospital, Boston, MA (T.P.S.); Freeman Hospital, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (R.K.); Children's Hospital of Omaha, NE (R.S.); Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH (T.M.H.); Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Bronx, NY (D.H.); University of Alabama at Birmingham (D.C.N., E.P.); and St. Louis Children's Hospital, MO (C.E.C.).
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Kirk
authors.affiliation: From University of Michigan, Mott Children's Hospital, Ann Arbor (K.R.S., M.Z., R.J.G.); Lucille Packard Children's Hospital, Palo Alto, CA (C.A.); Children's Hospital, Boston, MA (T.P.S.); Freeman Hospital, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (R.K.); Children's Hospital of Omaha, NE (R.S.); Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH (T.M.H.); Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Bronx, NY (D.H.); University of Alabama at Birmingham (D.C.N., E.P.); and St. Louis Children's Hospital, MO (C.E.C.).
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Spicer
authors.affiliation: From University of Michigan, Mott Children's Hospital, Ann Arbor (K.R.S., M.Z., R.J.G.); Lucille Packard Children's Hospital, Palo Alto, CA (C.A.); Children's Hospital, Boston, MA (T.P.S.); Freeman Hospital, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (R.K.); Children's Hospital of Omaha, NE (R.S.); Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH (T.M.H.); Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Bronx, NY (D.H.); University of Alabama at Birmingham (D.C.N., E.P.); and St. Louis Children's Hospital, MO (C.E.C.).
authors.forename: Timothy M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Hoffman
authors.affiliation: From University of Michigan, Mott Children's Hospital, Ann Arbor (K.R.S., M.Z., R.J.G.); Lucille Packard Children's Hospital, Palo Alto, CA (C.A.); Children's Hospital, Boston, MA (T.P.S.); Freeman Hospital, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (R.K.); Children's Hospital of Omaha, NE (R.S.); Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH (T.M.H.); Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Bronx, NY (D.H.); University of Alabama at Birmingham (D.C.N., E.P.); and St. Louis Children's Hospital, MO (C.E.C.).
authors.forename: Daphne
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Hsu
authors.affiliation: From University of Michigan, Mott Children's Hospital, Ann Arbor (K.R.S., M.Z., R.J.G.); Lucille Packard Children's Hospital, Palo Alto, CA (C.A.); Children's Hospital, Boston, MA (T.P.S.); Freeman Hospital, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (R.K.); Children's Hospital of Omaha, NE (R.S.); Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH (T.M.H.); Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Bronx, NY (D.H.); University of Alabama at Birmingham (D.C.N., E.P.); and St. Louis Children's Hospital, MO (C.E.C.).
authors.forename: David C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Naftel
authors.affiliation: From University of Michigan, Mott Children's Hospital, Ann Arbor (K.R.S., M.Z., R.J.G.); Lucille Packard Children's Hospital, Palo Alto, CA (C.A.); Children's Hospital, Boston, MA (T.P.S.); Freeman Hospital, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (R.K.); Children's Hospital of Omaha, NE (R.S.); Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH (T.M.H.); Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Bronx, NY (D.H.); University of Alabama at Birmingham (D.C.N., E.P.); and St. Louis Children's Hospital, MO (C.E.C.).
authors.forename: Elizabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Pruitt
authors.affiliation: From University of Michigan, Mott Children's Hospital, Ann Arbor (K.R.S., M.Z., R.J.G.); Lucille Packard Children's Hospital, Palo Alto, CA (C.A.); Children's Hospital, Boston, MA (T.P.S.); Freeman Hospital, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (R.K.); Children's Hospital of Omaha, NE (R.S.); Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH (T.M.H.); Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Bronx, NY (D.H.); University of Alabama at Birmingham (D.C.N., E.P.); and St. Louis Children's Hospital, MO (C.E.C.).
authors.forename: Mary
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zamberlan
authors.affiliation: From University of Michigan, Mott Children's Hospital, Ann Arbor (K.R.S., M.Z., R.J.G.); Lucille Packard Children's Hospital, Palo Alto, CA (C.A.); Children's Hospital, Boston, MA (T.P.S.); Freeman Hospital, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (R.K.); Children's Hospital of Omaha, NE (R.S.); Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH (T.M.H.); Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Bronx, NY (D.H.); University of Alabama at Birmingham (D.C.N., E.P.); and St. Louis Children's Hospital, MO (C.E.C.).
authors.forename: Charles E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Canter
authors.affiliation: From University of Michigan, Mott Children's Hospital, Ann Arbor (K.R.S., M.Z., R.J.G.); Lucille Packard Children's Hospital, Palo Alto, CA (C.A.); Children's Hospital, Boston, MA (T.P.S.); Freeman Hospital, Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (R.K.); Children's Hospital of Omaha, NE (R.S.); Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH (T.M.H.); Children's Hospital at Montefiore, Bronx, NY (D.H.); University of Alabama at Birmingham (D.C.N., E.P.); and St. Louis Children's Hospital, MO (C.E.C.).
authors.forename: Robert J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Gajarski
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D009202:Cardiomyopathies / Q000601:surgery*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D006084:Graft Rejection / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006330:Heart Defects, Congenital / Q000601:surgery*; D016027:Heart Transplantation; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome
keywords: heart transplantation; pediatrics; risk assessment; risk factors