title: Burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years and a disease forecasting time series model of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60-69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Li-Ping
authors.initials: LP
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Si-Yuan
authors.initials: SY
authors.lastname: Liang
authors.affiliation: Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Xian-Jun
authors.initials: XJ
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Xiu-Jun
authors.initials: XJ
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Yan-Ling
authors.initials: YL
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Wei
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Ma
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D012612:Scrub Typhus / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology*; D055815:Young Adult