title: Rapid declines of large mammal populations after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
abstract: Anecdotal evidence suggests that socioeconomic shocks strongly affect wildlife populations, but quantitative evidence is sparse. The collapse of socialism in Russia in 1991 caused a major socioeconomic shock, including a sharp increase in poverty. We analyzed population trends of 8 large mammals in Russia from 1981 to 2010 (i.e., before and after the collapse). We hypothesized that the collapse would first cause population declines, primarily due to overexploitation, and then population increases due to adaptation of wildlife to new environments following the collapse. The long-term Database of the Russian Federal Agency of Game Mammal Monitoring, consisting of up to 50,000 transects that are monitored annually, provided an exceptional data set for investigating these population trends. Three species showed strong declines in population growth rates in the decade following the collapse, while grey wolf (Canis lupus) increased by more than 150%. After 2000 some trends reversed. For example, roe deer (Capreolus spp.) abundance in 2010 was the highest of any period in our study. Likely reasons for the population declines in the 1990s include poaching and the erosion of wildlife protection enforcement. The rapid increase of the grey wolf populations is likely due to the cessation of governmental population control. In general, the widespread declines in wildlife populations after the collapse of the Soviet Union highlight the magnitude of the effects that socioeconomic shocks can have on wildlife populations and the possible need for special conservation efforts during such times.
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI, 53706, U.S.A.. e.bragina@gmail.com.|Faculty of Biology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1-12 Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russia. e.bragina@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Eugenia V
authors.initials: EV
authors.lastname: Bragina
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 430 Lincoln Drive, Madison, WI, 53706, U.S.A.
authors.forename: A R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Ives
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI, 53706, U.S.A.
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Pidgeon
authors.affiliation: Geography Department, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kuemmerle
authors.affiliation: Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, 33 Leninsky pr., Moscow, 117071, Russia.
authors.forename: L M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Baskin
authors.affiliation: FGU 'Thentrohotcontrol', 4 Zoologicheskaya str., Moscow, 123056, Russia.
authors.forename: Y P
authors.initials: YP
authors.lastname: Gubar
authors.affiliation: Geography Department, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Piquer-Rodríguez
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1300 University Avenue, Madison, WI, 53706, U.S.A.
authors.forename: N S
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Keuler
authors.affiliation: Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, 33 Leninsky pr., Moscow, 117071, Russia.
authors.forename: V G
authors.initials: VG
authors.lastname: Petrosyan
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI, 53706, U.S.A.
authors.forename: V C
authors.initials: VC
authors.lastname: Radeloff
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001188:Artiodactyla / Q000502:physiology*; D002335:Carnivora / Q000502:physiology*; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012426:Russia; D014586:USSR
keywords: Rusia; Russia; change point; game mammals; mamíferos de caza; population trend; punto de cambio; shock socio-económico; socioeconomic shock; tendencia poblacional