title: Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model.
abstract: We aimed to reparameterize and validate an existing dengue model, comprising an entomological component (CIMSiM) and a disease component (DENSiM) for application in Malaysia. With the model we aimed to measure the effect of importation rate on dengue incidence, and to determine the potential impact of moderate climate change (a 1 °C temperature increase) on dengue activity. Dengue models (comprising CIMSiM and DENSiM) were reparameterized for a simulated Malaysian village of 10 000 people, and validated against monthly dengue case data from the district of Petaling Jaya in the state of Selangor. Simulations were also performed for 2008-2012 for variable virus importation rates (ranging from 1 to 25 per week) and dengue incidence determined. Dengue incidence in the period 2010-2012 was modelled, twice, with observed daily weather and with a 1 °C increase, the latter to simulate moderate climate change. Strong concordance between simulated and observed monthly dengue cases was observed (up to r = 0·72). There was a linear relationship between importation and incidence. However, a doubling of dengue importation did not equate to a doubling of dengue activity. The largest individual dengue outbreak was observed with the lowest dengue importation rate. Moderate climate change resulted in an overall decrease in dengue activity over a 3-year period, linked to high human seroprevalence early on in the simulation. Our results suggest that moderate reductions in importation with control programmes may not reduce the frequency of large outbreaks. Moderate increases in temperature do not necessarily lead to greater dengue incidence.
authors.affiliation: Sansom Institute for Health Research, University of South Australia,Adelaide,Australia.
authors.forename: C R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.affiliation: Disease Control Division,Ministry of Health Malaysia.
authors.forename: B S
authors.initials: BS
authors.lastname: Gill
authors.affiliation: Sansom Institute for Health Research, University of South Australia,Adelaide,Australia.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Mincham
authors.affiliation: Disease Control Division,Ministry of Health Malaysia.
authors.forename: A H
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: Mohd Zaki
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit,Institute for Medical Research,Malaysia.
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Abdullah
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit,Institute for Medical Research,Malaysia.
authors.forename: W R W
authors.initials: WR
authors.lastname: Mahiyuddin
authors.affiliation: Medical Entomology Unit & WHO Collaborating Centre,Institute for Medical Research,Malaysia.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ahmad
authors.affiliation: Medical Entomology Unit & WHO Collaborating Centre,Institute for Medical Research,Malaysia.
authors.forename: M K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Shahar
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University,Canberra,Australia.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Harley
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University,Canberra,Australia.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Viennet
authors.affiliation: Department of Parasitology and Medical Entomology,Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia,Malaysia.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Azil
authors.affiliation: Environmental Health Research Centre, Institute for Medical Research,Malaysia.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kamaluddin
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes; D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D004772:Entomology / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008296:Malaysia / Q000453:epidemiology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012984:Software
keywords: Arboviruses; dengue fever; epidemiology; estimating; modelling; prevalence of disease