title: PLANNING AND RESPONSE IN THE AFTERMATH OF A LARGE CRISIS: AN AGENT-BASED INFORMATICS FRAMEWORK*
abstract: We present a synthetic information and modeling environment that can allow policy makers to study various counter-factual experiments in the event of a large human-initiated crisis. The specific scenario we consider is a ground detonation caused by an improvised nuclear device in a large urban region. In contrast to earlier work in this area that focuses largely on the prompt effects on human health and injury, we focus on co-evolution of individual and collective behavior and its interaction with the differentially damaged infrastructure. This allows us to study short term secondary and tertiary effects. The present environment is suitable for studying the dynamical outcomes over a two week period after the initial blast. A novel computing and data processing architecture is described; the architecture allows us to represent multiple co-evolving infrastructures and social networks at a highly resolved temporal, spatial, and individual scale. The representation allows us to study the emergent behavior of individuals as well as specific strategies to reduce casualties and injuries that exploit the spatial and temporal nature of the secondary and tertiary effects. A number of important conclusions are obtained using the modeling environment. For example, the studies decisively show that deploying ad hoc communication networks to reach individuals in the affected area is likely to have a significant impact on the overall casualties and injuries.
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Christopher
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Barrett
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Keith
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Bisset
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Shridhar
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Chandan
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Jiangzhuo
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Youngyun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Chungbaek
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Eubank
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Yaman
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Evrenosoğlu
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Bryan
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Lewis
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Kristian
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Lum
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Achla
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Marathe
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Madhav
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Marathe
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Henning
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Mortveit
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Nidhi
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Parikh
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Arun
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Phadke
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Jeffrey
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Reed
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Caitlin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Rivers
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Sudip
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Saha
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Paula
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Stretz
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Samarth
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Swarup
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Thorp
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Anil
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Vullikanti
authors.affiliation: Departments of Computer Science, Agriculture and Applied Economics, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory Virginia Bioinformatics Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.
authors.forename: Dawen
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Xie