title: Climate change alters reproductive isolation and potential gene flow in an annual plant.
abstract: Climate change will likely cause evolution due not only to selection but also to changes in reproductive isolation within and among populations. We examined the effects of a natural drought on the timing of flowering in two populations of Brassica rapa and the consequences for predicted reproductive isolation and potential gene flow. Seeds were collected before and after a 5-year drought in southern California from two populations varying in soil moisture. Lines derived from these seeds were raised in the greenhouse under wet and drought conditions. We found that the natural drought caused changes in reproductive timing and that the changes were greater for plants from the wet than from the dry site. This differential shift caused the populations to become more phenological similar, which should lead to less reproductive isolation and increased gene flow. We estimated a high level of assortative mating by flowering time, which potentially contributed to the rapid evolution of phenological traits following the drought. Estimates of assortative mating were higher for the wet site population, and assortative mating was reduced following the drought. This study shows that climate change can potentially alter gene flow and reproductive isolation within and among populations, strongly influencing evolution.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, Larkin Hall, Fordham University Bronx, NY, USA.
authors.forename: Steven J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Franks
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Koffler Scientific Reserve, University of Toronto Toronto, ON, Canada.
authors.forename: Arthur E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Weis
keywords: Brassica rapa; assortative mating; gene flow; global climate change; natural selection; phenology; population structure; rapid evolution