title: Estimating national road crash fatalities using aggregate data.
abstract: Injuries and fatalities from road traffic crashes have emerged a major public health challenge in Pakistan. Reliable estimates of road crash fatalities (RCF) of a country, is a vital element needed for identification and control of key risk factors, road-safety improvement efforts and prioritizing national health. Reliability of current annual RCF estimates for Pakistan becomes highly questionable due to serious underreporting. This study aimed to predict annual RCF for Pakistan using data from World Health Organization and International Road Federation sources. An ordinary least square (OLS) regression model that relates fatality rate with different explanatory variables was developed. RCF were predicted for Pakistan for year 2012 and 2013, and results were compared with national police reported estimates. Study results indicated that there is serious underreporting of RCF in Pakistan and immediate measures are needed to improve the existing road crash recording and reporting system at the national and subnational levels.
authors.affiliation: a National Institute of Transportation, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering , National University of Sciences and Technology , Islamabad , Pakistan.
authors.forename: Anwaar
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ahmed
authors.affiliation: a National Institute of Transportation, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering , National University of Sciences and Technology , Islamabad , Pakistan.
authors.forename: Beenish Akbar
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.affiliation: a National Institute of Transportation, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering , National University of Sciences and Technology , Islamabad , Pakistan.
authors.forename: Muhammad Bilal
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Khurshid
authors.affiliation: a National Institute of Transportation, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering , National University of Sciences and Technology , Islamabad , Pakistan.
authors.forename: Muhammad Babar
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.affiliation: a National Institute of Transportation, School of Civil & Environmental Engineering , National University of Sciences and Technology , Islamabad , Pakistan.
authors.forename: Abdul
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Waheed
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000068598:Data Accuracy; D003625:Data Collection; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010154:Pakistan / Q000453:epidemiology; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: Pakistan; prediction, aggregate data, underreporting; road/national highway accidents