title: Estimates of price and income elasticity in Greece. Greek debt crisis transforming cigarettes into a luxury good: an econometric approach.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  During the past decades, smoking prevalence in Greece was estimated to be near or over 40%. Following a sharp fall in cigarette consumption, as shown in current data, our objective is to assess smokers' sensitivity to cigarette price and consumer income changes as well as to project health benefits of an additional tax increase.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cigarette consumption was considered as the dependent variable, with Weighted Average Price as a proxy for cigarette price, gross domestic product as a proxy for consumers' income and dummy variables reflecting smoking restrictions and antismoking campaigns. Values were computed to natural logarithms and regression was performed. Then, four scenarios of tax increase were distinguished in order to calculate potential health benefits.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Short-run price elasticity is estimated at -0.441 and short-run income elasticity is estimated at 1.040. Antismoking campaigns were found to have a statistically significant impact on consumption. Results indicate that, depending on the level of tax increase, annual per capita consumption could fall by at least 209.83 cigarettes; tax revenue could rise by more than €0.74 billion, while smokers could be reduced by up to 530 568 and at least 465 smoking-related deaths could be averted.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Price elasticity estimates are similar to previous studies in Greece, while income elasticity estimates are far greater. With cigarettes regarded as a luxury good, a great opportunity is presented for decisionmakers to counter smoking. Increased taxation, along with focused antismoking campaigns, law reinforcement (to ensure compliance with smoking bans) and intensive control for smuggling could invoke a massive blow to the tobacco epidemic in Greece.
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Economics, National School of Public Health, Athens, Greece.
authors.forename: Filippos
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Tarantilis
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Economics, National School of Public Health, Athens, Greece.
authors.forename: Kostas
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Athanasakis
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Economics, National School of Public Health, Athens, Greece.
authors.forename: Dimitris
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Zavras
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Piraeus, Athens, Greece.
authors.forename: Athanassios
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Vozikis
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Economics, National School of Public Health, Athens, Greece.
authors.forename: Ioannis
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Kyriopoulos
mesh_terms: D057172:Economic Recession / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006115:Greece; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D017059:Models, Econometric; D062789:Tobacco Products / Q000191:economics*
keywords: HEALTH ECONOMICS