title: Epidemiological implications of mobility between a large urban centre and smaller satellite cities.
abstract: An SIR infectious disease propagation model is considered that incorporates mobility of individuals between a large urban centre and smaller satellite cities. Because of the difference in population sizes, the urban centre has standard incidence and satellite cities have mass action incidence. It is shown that the general basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] acts as a threshold between global asymptotic stability of the disease free equilibrium and disease persistence. The case of Winnipeg (MB, Canada) and some neighbouring satellite communities is then considered numerically to complement the mathematical analysis, highlighting the importance of taking into account not only [Formula: see text] but also other measures of disease severity. It is found that the large urban centre governs most of the behaviour of the general system and control of the spread is better achieved by targeting it rather than reducing movement between the units. Also, the capacity of a satellite city to affect the general system depends on its population size and its connectivity to the main urban centre.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada. arinoj@cc.umanitoba.ca.
authors.forename: Julien
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Arino
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada. portets@cc.umanitoba.ca.
authors.forename: Stéphanie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Portet
mesh_terms: D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D002947:Cities; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D058872:Epidemics / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008350:Manitoba / Q000453:epidemiology; D055641:Mathematical Concepts; D008954:Models, Biological; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014186:Transportation; D014505:Urban Population
keywords: Attack rate; Incidence functions; Metapopulation; Mobility; Reproduction number; Urbanism