title: A population-based cohort study of 394,401 children followed for 10 years exhibits sustained effectiveness of scoliosis screening.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The value of scoliosis screening has been recently shown in a multicenter randomized controlled trial. However, the long-term sustainability of the clinical effectiveness of scoliosis screening as a routine health service remains unknown.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to assess the sustainability of the clinical effectiveness of school scoliosis screening.
  
  
  METHODS
  A large population-based cohort study with a 10-year follow-up was conducted.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 394,401 students who were in the fifth grade during the five academic years from 1995/1996 to 1999/2000 formed five consecutive annual cohorts. The students were eligible for the Hong Kong scoliosis screening program, with their screening history and medical records until their nineteenth birthdays being assessed.
  
  
  METHODS
  The outcome measures considered in the study were development of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis by the 19 years of age and the Cobb angle.
  
  
  METHODS
  The clinical effectiveness of scoliosis screening was assessed by referral rate for radiographic diagnosis, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 306,144 students (78%) participated in scoliosis screening, which used a two-tier system. The prevalence of curves of 20° or greater was 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-1.8%), whereas the referral rate for radiography, the sensitivity, and the positive predictive value (PPV) for curves of 20° or greater were 4.1% (95% CI, 4.0-4.2%), 91% (95% CI, 90-92%), and 40% (95% CI, 39-41%), respectively. Across the five consecutive annual cohorts, the prevalence and sensitivity for curves of 20° or greater increased by 0.23% (95% CI, 0.21-0.25%; p<.001) and 0.76% (95% CI, 0.43-1.04%; p<.001) per year, respectively; however, the PPV was reduced by 1.71% (95% CI, 1.09-2.33%; p<.001) per year.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This report describes the first large population-based study with a long-term follow-up indicating that a scoliosis screening program can have sustained clinical effectiveness in identifying patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis needing clinical observation. As the prevalence of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis increases, scoliosis screening should be continued as a routine health service in schools or by general practitioners if there is no scoliosis screening policy.
authors.affiliation: School of Nursing, The University of Hong Kong, 21 Sassoon Rd, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Daniel Y T
authors.initials: DY
authors.lastname: Fong
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, 5/F Professorial Block, Pokfulam, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Kenneth M C
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Cheung
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, 5/F Professorial Block, Pokfulam, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Yat-Wa
authors.initials: YW
authors.lastname: Wong
authors.affiliation: School of Nursing, The University of Hong Kong, 21 Sassoon Rd, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Yuen-Yin
authors.initials: YY
authors.lastname: Wan
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics of the Singapore Clinical Research Institute, 31 Biopolis Way, Nanos #02-01, Singapore 138669; Centre for Quantitative Medicine of the Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, 8 College Road, Singapore 169857.
authors.forename: Chun-Fan
authors.initials: CF
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, 5/F, Clinical Science Building, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Tsz-Ping
authors.initials: TP
authors.lastname: Lam
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, 5/F, Clinical Science Building, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Jack C Y
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Cheng
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Prince of Wales Hospital, 30-32 Ngan Shing Street, Shatin, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Bobby K W
authors.initials: BK
authors.lastname: Ng
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, The University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, 5/F Professorial Block, Pokfulam, Hong Kong. Electronic address: hrmoldk@hku.hk.
authors.forename: Keith D K
authors.initials: KD
authors.lastname: Luk
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000379:methods*; D012600:Scoliosis / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis; Clinical effectiveness; Health services; Retrospective cohort; Scoliosis screening; Sustainability