title: The Predictive Value of Discrete Choice Experiments in Public Health: An Exploratory Application.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The objective of this study was to assess the predictive value of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in public health by comparing stated preferences to actual behavior.
  
  
  METHODS
  780 Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients received a questionnaire, containing a DCE with five attributes related to T2DM patients' willingness to participate in a combined lifestyle intervention. Panel mixed-multinomial-logit models were used to estimate the stated preferences based on 206 completed DCE questionnaires. Actual participation status was retrieved for 54 respondents based on patients' medical records and a second questionnaire. Predicted and actual behavior data were compared at population level and at individual level.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Based on the estimated utility function, 81.8% of all answers that individual respondents provided on the choice tasks were predicted correctly. The actual participation rate at the aggregated population level was minimally underestimated (70.1 vs. 75.9%). Of all individual choices, 74.1% were predicted correctly with a positive predictive value of 0.80 and a negative predictive value of 0.44.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Stated preferences derived from a DCE can adequately predict actual behavior in a public health setting.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Benjamin H
authors.initials: BH
authors.lastname: Salampessy
authors.affiliation: Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. jorien.veldwijk@rivm.nl.|Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands. jorien.veldwijk@rivm.nl.
authors.forename: Jorien
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Veldwijk
authors.affiliation: Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.|Department of Health Sciences, EMGO Institute for Health and Care Research, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Jantine Schuit
authors.affiliation: Leidsche Rijn Julius Health Care Centers, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Karolien
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: van den Brekel-Dijkstra
authors.affiliation: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Rabin E J
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Neslo
authors.affiliation: Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.|Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Ardine de Wit
authors.affiliation: Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Mattijs S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Lambooij
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002755:Choice Behavior; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000523:psychology*; D004032:Diet; D015444:Exercise; D005260:Female; D015438:Health Behavior; D006801:Humans; D008019:Life Style; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011634:Public Health / Q000379:methods*; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D015599:Trauma Severity Indices