title: Estimated effects of white rice consumption and rice variety selection on incidence of type 2 diabetes in Cambodia.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Rice consumption patterns are considered an important risk factor for diabetes in many countries. The present study aimed to model the impact of a shift in consumption of white rice from current to appropriately reduced levels and a shift in rice variety from one with a high glycaemic index to one with a low glycaemic index, on the burden of type 2 diabetes in Cambodia.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prevent Plus software was used to model the impact of selected changes to white rice consumption on the burden of type 2 diabetes. Data used for modelling included: demographic projections, relative risk estimates for white rice consumption and diabetes, diabetes incidence, rice type and quantities consumed. The 10-year projections were based on different scenarios of changes in risk factors.
  
  
  RESULTS
  With no intervention, 10-year projections showed that total new diabetes cases will increase from 11 315 (9·1 per 10 000 person-years) for the year 2011 to 14 852 new cases (12·4 per 10 000 person-years) in 2020. However, this increase will be reduced by 27 % (average across 10 years) with a change in rice variety from Phka Rumdual to IR66 and by 26 % (average across 10 years) with a 25 % reduction in quantity from current consumption levels.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Changing rice consumption patterns has potential for an important impact on diabetes risk, with a change of rice variety having a similar impact on the burden of diabetes in communities consuming rice with a high glycaemic index as a 25 % reduction in the quantity of rice consumed. Similar effects are likely for other countries with rice as a staple food, diversity in rice varieties and high incidence of diabetes.
authors.affiliation: 1The University of Queensland,Centre for Nutrition & Food Sciences,Queensland Alliance for Agricultural & Food Innovations,Brisbane,Queensland,Australia.
authors.forename: Seila
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sar
authors.affiliation: 2The University of Queensland,School of Public Health,Herston,QLD 4006,Australia.
authors.forename: Geoffrey C
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: Marks
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism; D002160:Cambodia / Q000453:epidemiology; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D004032:Diet; D004040:Dietary Carbohydrates / Q000378:metabolism* / Q000494:pharmacology; D002523:Edible Grain; D005247:Feeding Behavior; D005260:Female; D038321:Glycemic Index; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D009752:Nutritional Status; D012275:Oryza / Q000145:classification; D012307:Risk Factors; D013045:Species Specificity
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D004040:Dietary Carbohydrates
keywords: Cambodia; Diabetes; Epidemiological modelling; Rice