title: Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change.
abstract: Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change.
authors.affiliation: Unit of Ecology & Evolution, University of Fribourg, Ch. du Musée 10, CH-1700, Fribourg, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Patrice
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Descombes
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Environment, DHI-Group, Hørsholm, Denmark.
authors.forename: Mary S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Wisz
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire Ecologie des Systèmes Marins Côtiers UMR 5119, CNRS, IRD, IFREMER, UM2, UM1, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, FR-34095, Montpellier Cedex 5, France.
authors.forename: Fabien
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Leprieur
authors.affiliation: CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, LABEX 'CORAIL', University of Perpignan, 66860, Perpignan, France.|CESAB-FRB, Immeuble Henri Poincaré, Domaine du Petit Arbois, FR-13857, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 3, France.
authors.forename: Valerianio
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Parravicini
authors.affiliation: EarthByte Group, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.|Shell International Exploration & Production, The Hague, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Heine
authors.affiliation: Center for Ocean and Ice Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Steffen M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Olsen
authors.affiliation: EPOC, CNRS, Université de Bordeaux, Allée Geoffroy St Hilaire, 33615, Pessac cedex, France.
authors.forename: Didier
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Swingedouw
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire Arago, UR "CoReUs", Institut pour la Recherche en Développement, Labex Corail, B.P. 44, 66651, Banyuls/mer, France.
authors.forename: Michel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kulbicki
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire Ecologie des Systèmes Marins Côtiers UMR 5119, CNRS, IRD, IFREMER, UM2, UM1, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, FR-34095, Montpellier Cedex 5, France.|Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld, 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Mouillot
authors.affiliation: Unit of Ecology & Evolution, University of Fribourg, Ch. du Musée 10, CH-1700, Fribourg, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Loïc
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Pellissier
keywords: fish; fossil; sea surface temperature; specialists; species distribution model; species richness