title: Modelling foot-and-mouth disease transmission in a wild pig-domestic cattle ecosystem.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To use simulation modelling to predict the potential spread and to explore control options for a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursion in a mixed wild pig-domestic cattle ecosystem in northern Australia.
  
  
  METHODS
  Based on aerial surveys, expert opinion and published data, the wild pig and grazing cattle distributions were simulated. A susceptible-infected-resistant disease-spread model was coded and parameterised according to published literature and expert opinion.
  
  
  METHODS
  A baseline scenario was simulated in which infection was introduced via wild pigs, with transmission from pigs to cattle and no disease control. Assumptions regarding disease transmission were investigated via sensitivity analyses. Predicted size and length of outbreaks were compared for different control strategies based on movement standstill, surveillance and depopulation.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In most of the simulations, FMD outbreaks were predicted to be ongoing after 6 months, with more cattle herds infected than wild pig herds (median 907 vs. 22, respectively). Assuming only pig-to-pig transmission, the infection routinely died out. In contrast, assuming cattle-to-cattle, cattle-to-pig or pig-to-cattle transmission resulted in FMD establishing and spreading in more than 75% of simulations. A control strategy targeting wild pigs only was not predicted to be successful. Control based on cattle only was successful in eradicating the disease. However, control targeting both pigs and cattle resulted in smaller outbreaks.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  If FMD is controlled in cattle in the modelled ecosystem, it is likely to be self-limiting in wild pigs. However, to eradicate disease as quickly as possible, both wild pigs and cattle should be targeted for control.
authors.affiliation: The University of Sydney, Faculty of Veterinary Science, 425 Werombi Road, Camden, New South Wales, 2570, Australia. michael.ward@sydney.edu.au.
authors.forename: M P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Ward
authors.forename: M G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Garner
authors.forename: B D
authors.initials: BD
authors.lastname: Cowled
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000829:Animals, Domestic; D000835:Animals, Wild; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003710:Demography; D004195:Disease Models, Animal; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D015876:Northern Territory / Q000453:epidemiology; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D014904:Western Australia / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Australia; cattle; foot-and-mouth disease; simulation model; wild pigs