title: Trends in head and neck cancers in England from 1995 to 2011 and projections up to 2025.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The magnitude of the growing burden of oropharyngeal cancers (OPC), a sub-set of head and neck cancers (HNC), is unknown in England.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data were extracted from population-based cancer registries in England. The burden of HNC overall and by anatomic site was described from 1995 to 2011. Projections of future rates up to 2025 were estimated using flexible age-period-cohort modelling.
  
  
  RESULTS
  HNC increased by 59% between 1995 and 2011 in England. Projections indicate that the number of HNC cases will increase by 55% from 2011, totalling 11,748 new cases in 2025, ranking HNC as the sixth most common cancer. Of the anatomic sites, OPC is projected to account for 35% of HNC with the largest rate increase (annual percentage change, +7.3% for men and +6.2% for women between 2011 and 2025), predominantly affecting males <60years. This projected burden is equivalent to a 239% increase in number of OPC cases. Incidence of the oral cavity, salivary glands and palate are projected to rise at lower rates, whereas rates of the nasopharynx, hypopharynx and larynx remain relatively stable or decreasing.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The substantial recent and predicted future significant increase in OPC highlights the need for prioritising the provision of cancer services for the considerable burden of OPC patients and survivors and cancer control strategies.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, Charterhouse Square, London EC1M 6BQ, UK. Electronic address: k.louie@qmul.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Karly S
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Louie
authors.affiliation: Institute of Head and Neck Studies and Education, School of Cancer Sciences, College of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Birmingham, Robert Aitken Building, 2nd Floor, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
authors.forename: Hisham
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Mehanna
authors.affiliation: Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, Charterhouse Square, London EC1M 6BQ, UK.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Sasieni
mesh_terms: D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D009959:Oropharyngeal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012042:Registries
keywords: Head and neck cancers; Human papillomavirus; Projections; Trends