title: Targeted conservation to safeguard a biodiversity hotspot from climate and land-cover change.
abstract: Responses of biodiversity to changes in both land cover and climate are recognized [1] but still poorly understood [2]. This poses significant challenges for spatial planning as species could shift, contract, expand, or maintain their range inside or outside protected areas [2-4]. We examine this problem in Borneo, a global biodiversity hotspot [5], using spatial prioritization analyses that maximize species conservation under multiple environmental-change forecasts. Climate projections indicate that 11%-36% of Bornean mammal species will lose ≥ 30% of their habitat by 2080, and suitable ecological conditions will shift upslope for 23%-46%. Deforestation exacerbates this process, increasing the proportion of species facing comparable habitat loss to 30%-49%, a 2-fold increase on historical trends. Accommodating these distributional changes will require conserving land outside existing protected areas, but this may be less than anticipated from models incorporating deforestation alone because some species will colonize high-elevation reserves. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of upland reserves and that relatively small additions (16,000-28,000 km(2)) to the current conservation estate could provide substantial benefits to biodiversity facing changes to land cover and climate. On Borneo, much of this land is under forestry jurisdiction, warranting targeted conservation partnerships to safeguard biodiversity in an era of global change.
authors.affiliation: Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury CT2 7NR, UK; School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK. Electronic address: m.j.struebig@kent.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Matthew J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Struebig
authors.affiliation: Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, 10315 Berlin, Germany. Electronic address: wilting@izw-berlin.de.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wilting
authors.affiliation: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), P.O. Box 0113 BOCBD, Bogor 16000, Indonesia.
authors.forename: David L A
authors.initials: DLA
authors.lastname: Gaveau
authors.affiliation: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), P.O. Box 0113 BOCBD, Bogor 16000, Indonesia; Borneo Futures, People and Nature Consulting International, Country Woods House 306, Jl. WR Supratman, Pondok Ranji-Rengas, Ciputat, Jakarta 15412, Indonesia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Erik
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Meijaard
authors.affiliation: Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury CT2 7NR, UK.
authors.forename: Robert J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, 10315 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Manuela
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fischer
authors.affiliation: Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury CT2 7NR, UK; Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK.
authors.forename: Kristian
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Metcalfe
authors.affiliation: Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, 10315 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Stephanie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kramer-Schadt
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D001893:Borneo; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D056727:Endangered Species; D016468:Forestry / Q000379:methods*; D008322:Mammals / Q000502:physiology*; D013045:Species Specificity