title: Reductions in emissions from deforestation from Indonesia's moratorium on new oil palm, timber, and logging concessions.
abstract: To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation, Indonesia instituted a nationwide moratorium on new license areas ("concessions") for oil palm plantations, timber plantations, and logging activity on primary forests and peat lands after May 2011. Here we indirectly evaluate the effectiveness of this policy using annual nationwide data on deforestation, concession licenses, and potential agricultural revenue from the decade preceding the moratorium. We estimate that on average granting a concession for oil palm, timber, or logging in Indonesia increased site-level deforestation rates by 17-127%, 44-129%, or 3.1-11.1%, respectively, above what would have occurred otherwise. We further estimate that if Indonesia's moratorium had been in place from 2000 to 2010, then nationwide emissions from deforestation over that decade would have been 241-615 MtCO2e (2.8-7.2%) lower without leakage, or 213-545 MtCO2e (2.5-6.4%) lower with leakage. As a benchmark, an equivalent reduction in emissions could have been achieved using a carbon price-based instrument at a carbon price of $3.30-7.50/tCO2e (mandatory) or $12.95-19.45/tCO2e (voluntary). For Indonesia to have achieved its target of reducing emissions by 26%, the geographic scope of the moratorium would have had to expand beyond new concessions (15.0% of emissions from deforestation and peat degradation) to also include existing concessions (21.1% of emissions) and address deforestation outside of concessions and protected areas (58.7% of emissions). Place-based policies, such as moratoria, may be best thought of as bridge strategies that can be implemented rapidly while the institutions necessary to enable carbon price-based instruments are developed.
authors.affiliation: Center for Global Development, Washington, DC 20036; jbusch@cgdev.org.
authors.forename: Jonah
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Busch
authors.affiliation: Center for Global Development, Washington, DC 20036;
authors.forename: Kalifi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ferretti-Gallon
authors.affiliation: Center for Global Development, Washington, DC 20036;
authors.forename: Jens
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Engelmann
authors.affiliation: Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science and Oceans, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202;
authors.forename: Max
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wright
authors.affiliation: Food, Forests, and Water Program, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;
authors.forename: Kemen G
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Austin
authors.affiliation: Food, Forests, and Water Program, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002;
authors.forename: Fred
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Stolle
authors.affiliation: Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742; and.
authors.forename: Svetlana
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Turubanova
authors.affiliation: Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742; and.
authors.forename: Peter V
authors.initials: PV
authors.lastname: Potapov
authors.affiliation: Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742; and.
authors.forename: Belinda
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Margono
authors.affiliation: Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742; and.
authors.forename: Matthew C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Hansen
authors.affiliation: Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540.
authors.forename: Alessandro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Baccini
keywords: REDD+; agriculture; climate change; impact evaluation; land-use change