title: Complex forest dynamics indicate potential for slowing carbon accumulation in the southeastern United States.
abstract: Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. We used land use and forest inventory data to estimate how forest C dynamics have changed in the southeastern United States and attribute changes to land use, management, and disturbance causes. From 2007-2012, forests yielded a net sink of C because of net land use change (+6.48 Tg C yr(-1)) and net biomass accumulation (+75.4 Tg C yr(-1)). Forests disturbed by weather, insect/disease, and fire show dampened yet positive forest C changes (+1.56, +1.4, +5.48 Tg C yr(-1), respectively). Forest cutting caused net decreases in C (-76.7 Tg C yr(-1)) but was offset by forest growth (+143.77 Tg C yr(-1)). Forest growth rates depend on age or stage of development and projected C stock changes indicate a gradual slowing of carbon accumulation with anticipated forest aging (a reduction of 9.5% over the next five years). Additionally, small shifts in land use transitions consistent with economic futures resulted in a 40.6% decrease in C accumulation.
authors.affiliation: United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, 4700 Old Kingston Pike, Knoxville, TN 37919.
authors.forename: John W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Coulston
authors.affiliation: United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, PO Box 8008 North Carolina State University Raleigh, NC 27695.
authors.forename: David N
authors.initials: DN
authors.lastname: Wear
authors.affiliation: United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, PO Box 8008 North Carolina State University Raleigh, NC 27695.
authors.forename: James M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Vose
mesh_terms: D002244:Carbon / Q000737:chemistry*; D057486:Carbon Cycle; D017753:Ecosystem; D065928:Forests; D015144:Southeastern United States
chemical_list: D002244:Carbon