title: Dynamics of a morbillivirus at the domestic-wildlife interface: Canine distemper virus in domestic dogs and lions.
abstract: Morbilliviruses cause many diseases of medical and veterinary importance, and although some (e.g., measles and rinderpest) have been controlled successfully, others, such as canine distemper virus (CDV), are a growing concern. A propensity for host-switching has resulted in CDV emergence in new species, including endangered wildlife, posing challenges for controlling disease in multispecies communities. CDV is typically associated with domestic dogs, but little is known about its maintenance and transmission in species-rich areas or about the potential role of domestic dog vaccination as a means of reducing disease threats to wildlife. We address these questions by analyzing a long-term serological dataset of CDV in lions and domestic dogs from Tanzania's Serengeti ecosystem. Using a Bayesian state-space model, we show that dynamics of CDV have changed considerably over the past three decades. Initially, peaks of CDV infection in dogs preceded those in lions, suggesting that spill-over from dogs was the main driver of infection in wildlife. However, despite dog-to-lion transmission dominating cross-species transmission models, infection peaks in lions became more frequent and asynchronous from those in dogs, suggesting that other wildlife species may play a role in a potentially complex maintenance community. Widespread mass vaccination of domestic dogs reduced the probability of infection in dogs and the size of outbreaks but did not prevent transmission to or peaks of infection in lions. This study demonstrates the complexity of CDV dynamics in natural ecosystems and the value of long-term, large-scale datasets for investigating transmission patterns and evaluating disease control strategies.
authors.affiliation: Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom; mafalda.viana@glasgow.ac.uk tiziana.lembo@glasgow.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Mafalda
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Viana
authors.affiliation: Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom; mafalda.viana@glasgow.ac.uk tiziana.lembo@glasgow.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Cleaveland
authors.affiliation: Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom;
authors.forename: Jason
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Matthiopoulos
authors.affiliation: Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom;
authors.forename: Jo
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Halliday
authors.affiliation: Departments of Ecology Evolution and Behavior and.
authors.forename: Craig
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Packer
authors.affiliation: Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108;
authors.forename: Meggan E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Craft
authors.affiliation: Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom;
authors.forename: Katie
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hampson
authors.affiliation: Lincoln Park Zoo, Chicago, IL 60614; Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL 60607;
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Czupryna
authors.affiliation: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
authors.forename: Andrew P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Dobson
authors.affiliation: Animal Health Diagnostic Center, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14851;
authors.forename: Edward J
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4776-5759
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Dubovi
authors.affiliation: Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute, Arusha, Tanzania;
authors.forename: Eblate
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Ernest
authors.affiliation: Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute, Arusha, Tanzania;
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Fyumagwa
authors.affiliation: Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute, Arusha, Tanzania;
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hoare
authors.affiliation: Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom;
authors.forename: J Grant C
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Hopcraft
authors.affiliation: Wildlife Zoonoses and Vector-Borne Diseases Research Group, Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Surrey KT15 3NB, United Kingdom; School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Surrey GU2 7XH, United Kingdom;
authors.forename: Daniel L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Horton
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JT, United Kingdom;
authors.forename: Magai T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Kaare
authors.affiliation: Zoetis International Services, Paris 75668, France;
authors.forename: Theo
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kanellos
authors.affiliation: Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom; Paul G. Allen School for Global Animal Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164;
authors.forename: Felix
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Lankester
authors.affiliation: Conservation Areas and Species Diversity Programme, South Africa Country Office, International Union for the Conservation of Nature, Pretoria, South Africa;
authors.forename: Christine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Mentzel
authors.affiliation: Tanzania National Parks, Arusha, Tanzania; Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries Development, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania;
authors.forename: Titus
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Mlengeya
authors.affiliation: Lincoln Park Zoo, Chicago, IL 60614;
authors.forename: Imam
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Mzimbiri
authors.affiliation: Royal Veterinary College, University of London, London NW1 0TU, United Kingdom; and.
authors.forename: Emi
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Takahashi
authors.affiliation: MRC--University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G6 1QH, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Brian
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Willett
authors.affiliation: Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom;
authors.forename: Daniel T
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Haydon
authors.affiliation: Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom; mafalda.viana@glasgow.ac.uk tiziana.lembo@glasgow.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Tiziana
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Lembo
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000829:Animals, Domestic; D000835:Animals, Wild; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004216:Distemper / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D004217:Distemper Virus, Canine / Q000472:pathogenicity* / Q000502:physiology; D004285:Dogs; D008045:Lions; D018103:Morbillivirus / Q000472:pathogenicity* / Q000502:physiology
keywords: cross-species transmission; multihost pathogens; reservoirs; serology; state–space models