title: Mapping present and future potential distribution patterns for a meso-grazer guild in the Baltic Sea.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The Baltic Sea is one of the world's largest semi-enclosed brackish water bodies characterized by many special features, including endemic species that may be particularly threatened by climate change. We mapped potential distribution patterns under present and future conditions for a community with three trophic levels. We analysed climate-induced changes in the species' distribution patterns and examined possible consequences for the chosen food web.
  
  
  METHODS
  Baltic Sea and northern Europe.
  
  
  METHODS
  We developed two open-source workflow-based analytical tools: one for ecological niche modelling and another for raster layer comparison to compute the extent and intensity of change in species' potential distributions. Individual ecological niche models were generated under present conditions and then projected into a future climate change scenario (2050) for a food web consisting of a guild of meso-grazers (Idoteaspp.), their host algae (Fucus vesiculosusandFucus radicans) and their fish predator (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), literature and museum collections, together with five environmental layers at a resolution of 5 and 30 arc-minutes.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Habitat suitability forIdotea balthicaandIdotea chelipesin the Baltic Sea seems to be mostly determined by temperature and ice cover rather than by salinity. 2050 predictions for all modelled species show a northern/north-eastern shift in the Baltic Sea. The distribution ranges forIdotea granulosaandG. aculeatusare predicted to become patchier in the Baltic than in the rest of northern Europe, where the species will gain more suitable habitats.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  For the Baltic Sea, climate-induced changes resulted in a gain of suitable habitats forF. vesiculosus,I. chelipesandI. balthica, whereas lower habitat suitability was predicted forI. granulosa,F. radicansandG. aculeatus. The predicted north-eastern shift ofI. balthicaandI. chelipesinto the distribution area ofF. radicansin the Baltic Sea may result in increased grazing pressure. Such additional threats to isolated Baltic populations can lead to a higher extinction risk for the species, especially as climate changes are likely to be very rapid.
authors: Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences, Kristineberg, University of Gothenburg Kristineberg 566, SE-451 78, Fiskebäckskil, Sweden.
authors: Sonja
authors: S
authors: Leidenberger
authors: Centro de Referência em Informação Ambiental, CRIA Brazil.
authors: Renato
authors: R
authors: De Giovanni
authors: Fraunhofer IAIS Knowledge Discovery, Schloss Birlinghoven 53754, Sankt Augustin, Germany.
authors: Robert
authors: R
authors: Kulawik
authors: School of Computer Science, University of Manchester Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK.
authors: Alan R
authors: AR
authors: Williams
authors: Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg SE-405 30, Göteborg, Sweden.
authors: Sarah J
authors: SJ
authors: Bourlat
authors: Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences, Kristineberg, University of Gothenburg Kristineberg 566, SE-451 78, Fiskebäckskil, Sweden.
authors: Christine
authors: C
authors: Maggs
keywords: Baltic Sea; Climate change; Fucus radicans; Fucus vesiculosus; Gasterosteus aculeatus; Idotea; e-Science; ecological niche modelling; food web; workflows
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