title: Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.
abstract: Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age.
authors: Center of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Medical Information Technology, Department of Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, School of Medicine, Polytechnic University of Marche, 60020, Torrette di Ancona, Italy.
authors: Luigi
authors: L
authors: Ferrante
authors: Edlira
authors: E
authors: Skrami
authors: Rosaria
authors: R
authors: Gesuita
authors: Roberto
authors: R
authors: Cameriere
mesh_terms: D000300:Adoption / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D000365:Age Determination by Skeleton / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D000366:Age Determination by Teeth / Q000379:methods*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002138:Calibration; D003198:Computer Simulation; D057237:Criminals / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D005553:Forensic Dentistry / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D000069756:Undocumented Immigrants / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence
keywords: age estimation; asymmetric Laplace distribution; bayesian calibration; forensic statistics