title: Forecasting the progress towards the target of Millennium Development Goal 1C in children under 5 years of age in Bangladesh.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the average annual rates of reduction of stunting, underweight and wasting for the period 1996 to 2011, and to evaluate whether Bangladesh will be expected to achieve the target of Millennium Development Goal 1C of reducing the prevalence of underweight by half by 2015.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used five nationwide, cross-sectional, Demographic and Health Survey data sets to estimate prevalence of undernutrition defined by stunting, underweight and wasting among children under 5 years of age using the WHO child growth standards. We then computed the average annual rates of reduction of prevalence of undernutrition using the formula derived by UNICEF. Finally, we projected the prevalence of undernutrition for the year 2015 using the estimated average annual rates of reduction.
  
  
  METHODS
  Nationwide covering Bangladesh.
  
  
  METHODS
  Children under 5 years of age (n 28,941).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The prevalence of stunting decreased by 18.8% (from 60.0% to 41.2%), underweight by 16.0% (from 52.2% to 36.2%) and wasting by 5.1% (from 20.6% to 15.5%) during 1996 to 2011. The overall average annual rates of reduction were 2.84%, 2.69 % and 2.47%, respectively, for stunting, underweight and wasting. We forecast that in 2015, the prevalence of stunting, underweight and wasting will be 36.7%, 32.5% and 14.0%, respectively, at the national level. The prevalence of undernutrition is likely to remain high in rural areas, in the Sylhet division and in the poorest wealth quintile.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Bangladesh is likely to achieve the Millennium Development Goal 1C target of reducing the prevalence of underweight by half by 2015. However, it is falling behind in reducing stunting and further investment is needed to reduce individual, household and environmental determinants of stunting in Bangladesh.
authors: 1School of Population Health,University of Queensland,Level 2,Public Health Building,Herston Road,Herston,QLD 4006,Australia.
authors: Md Tanvir
authors: MT
authors: Hasan
authors: 2Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit,School of Population Health,University of Queensland,Herston,Queensland,Australia.
authors: Ricardo J
authors: RJ
authors: Soares Magalhaes
authors: 1School of Population Health,University of Queensland,Level 2,Public Health Building,Herston Road,Herston,QLD 4006,Australia.
authors: Gail M
authors: GM
authors: Williams
authors: 1School of Population Health,University of Queensland,Level 2,Public Health Building,Herston Road,Herston,QLD 4006,Australia.
authors: Abdullah A
authors: AA
authors: Mamun
mesh_terms: D001459:Bangladesh / Q000453:epidemiology; D015362:Child Nutrition Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006040:Goals; D006128:Growth; D006130:Growth Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D044342:Malnutrition / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D015995:Prevalence; D012016:Reference Values; D013851:Thinness / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D019282:Wasting Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*
keywords: Average annual rate of reduction; Bangladesh; Progress towards Millennium Development Goal 1C; Undernutrition
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