title: Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change.
abstract: How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii, in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias. Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats.
authors: Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA jgking@bio.unc.edu.
authors: Joel G
authors: JG
authors: Kingsolver
authors: Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
authors: Lauren B
authors: LB
authors: Buckley
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological; D000818:Animals; D005075:Biological Evolution; D002080:Butterflies / Q000033:anatomy & histology* / Q000502:physiology*; D003120:Colorado; D017753:Ecosystem; D057232:Global Warming; D008543:Melanins; D010641:Phenotype; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature; D014921:Wings, Animal / Q000033:anatomy & histology
chemical_list: D008543:Melanins
keywords: Colias butterflies; biophysical models; climate change; environmental variation; evolution; natural selection
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001 Dec 4;98(25):14509-11
references: 11698659
references: Evolution. 2002 Apr;56(4):836-40
references: 12038541
references: Evolution. 2004 Feb;58(2):360-6
references: 15068352
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1969 Jul;63(3):767-74
references: 16591777
references: Am Nat. 2006 Jun;167(6):853-66
references: 16685639
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 May 6;105(18):6668-72
references: 18458348
references: Science. 2009 Jan 9;323(5911):240-4
references: 19131626
references: Ecol Lett. 2009 Apr;12(4):334-50
references: 19292794
references: Am Nat. 2009 Dec;174(6):755-68
references: 19857158
references: Physiol Biochem Zool. 2010 Mar-Apr;83(2):197-206
references: 20001251
references: PLoS Biol. 2010 Apr 27;8(4):e1000357
references: 20463950
references: Nat Commun. 2011 Feb 22;2:208
references: 21343926
references: Integr Comp Biol. 2011 Nov;51(5):719-32
references: 21724617
references: Proc Biol Sci. 2012 Sep 22;279(1743):3843-52
references: 22787021
references: PLoS One. 2012;7(9):e44370
references: 22970205
references: Am Nat. 2012 Dec;180(6):815-22
references: 23149405
references: Evol Appl. 2014 Jan;7(1):1-14
references: 24454544
references: Evol Appl. 2014 Jan;7(1):15-28
references: 24454545
references: Evol Appl. 2014 Jan;7(1):68-87
references: 24454549
references: Trends Ecol Evol. 2014 Sep;29(9):521-30
references: 25038023
references: Oecologia. 1973 Mar;13(1):1-54
references: 28307981
references: Oecologia. 1977 Mar;27(1):1-22
references: 28309335
references: Oecologia. 1979 Dec;44(1):44-52
references: 28310462
references: Oecologia. 1982 Apr;53(1):27-33
references: 28310599
references: Oecologia. 1985 Jul;66(4):546-553
references: 28310797
references: Evolution. 1983 Nov;37(6):1210-1226
references: 28556011
references: Evolution. 1968 Sep;22(3):437-458
references: 28564757
references: J Insect Physiol. 1974 Oct;20(10):1913-24
references: 4423955