title: Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard).
abstract: Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21(st) century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to -4 m a(-1) w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario.
authors: 1] Department of Geography, RWTH Aachen University, Wüllnerstraβe 5b, 52056 Aachen, Germany [2] Departamento Matemática Aplicada, E.T.S.I. Telecomunicación, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Avenida Complutense 30, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors: Marco
authors: M
authors: Möller
authors: Department of Geography, RWTH Aachen University, Wüllnerstraβe 5b, 52056 Aachen, Germany.
authors: Christoph
authors: C
authors: Schneider
mesh_terms: D001110:Arctic Regions; D057231:Climate Change; D057232:Global Warming; D046448:Ice Cover; D013538:Svalbard
references: Nature. 2011 May 19;473(7347):357-60
references: 21508960
references: Nature. 2010 Feb 11;463(7282):747-56
references: 20148028
references: Nature. 2009 Sep 24;461(7263):472-5
references: 19779433
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2000 Feb 15;97(4):1406-11
references: 10677474
references: Science. 2010 Jun 18;328(5985):1517-20
references: 20558707
references: Nature. 2006 Jan 19;439(7074):311-3
references: 16421567