title: A nomogram that predicts pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation also predicts survival outcomes after definitive chemoradiation for esophageal cancer.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Pathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiation for esophageal cancer is associated with improved outcomes. We evaluated whether a nomogram designed to predict who would have a pCR after trimodality therapy could also predict outcome after definitive chemoradiation.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients in this retrospective, single-institution analysis had received chemoradiation without surgery for esophageal cancer from 1998 through 2010; 333 such patients had complete information on all variables required for the pCR nomogram: sex; T status (by endoscopic sonography); tumor grade; tumor avidity on positron emission tomography (PET); and esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD)-directed biopsy results after chemoradiation. We used multivariate Cox regression to test potential associations between clinical outcomes [overall survival (OS), locoregional recurrence, and distant metastasis] and patient or treatment factors and the pCR nomogram score; the component variables of the nomogram were not reintroduced into the multivariate analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The median follow-up time for all patients (median age 66 years) was 18.2 months (30.7 months for those alive at the time of analysis). Patients with nomogram scores ≤125 (median for all patients) had significantly worse outcomes than patients with scores >125: median OS time 19.7 vs. 48.2 months; disease-free survival (DFS) time 6.1 vs. 31.1 months; locoregional failure-free survival time 17.7 months vs. not reached; and distant metastasis-free survival time 11.7 months vs. not reached (all P<0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that nomogram score independently predicted each survival outcome, along with other patient and disease factors.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The pCR nomogram score predicted survival outcomes in patients receiving definitive chemoradiation for esophageal cancer. Although this nomogram requires further validation, it may prove useful for stratifying patients for clinical trials designed to intensify treatments for patients at the highest risk of relapse.
authors: 1 Department of Radiation Oncology, 2 Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 3 Department of Pathology, 4 Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors: Steven H
authors: SH
authors: Lin
authors: 1 Department of Radiation Oncology, 2 Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 3 Department of Pathology, 4 Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors: Jingya
authors: J
authors: Wang
authors: 1 Department of Radiation Oncology, 2 Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 3 Department of Pathology, 4 Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors: Pamela K
authors: PK
authors: Allen
authors: 1 Department of Radiation Oncology, 2 Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 3 Department of Pathology, 4 Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors: Arlene M
authors: AM
authors: Correa
authors: 1 Department of Radiation Oncology, 2 Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 3 Department of Pathology, 4 Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors: Dipen M
authors: DM
authors: Maru
authors: 1 Department of Radiation Oncology, 2 Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 3 Department of Pathology, 4 Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors: Stephen G
authors: SG
authors: Swisher
authors: 1 Department of Radiation Oncology, 2 Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 3 Department of Pathology, 4 Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors: Wayne L
authors: WL
authors: Hofstetter
authors: 1 Department of Radiation Oncology, 2 Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 3 Department of Pathology, 4 Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors: Zhongxing
authors: Z
authors: Liao
authors: 1 Department of Radiation Oncology, 2 Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, 3 Department of Pathology, 4 Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors: Jaffer A
authors: JA
authors: Ajani
keywords: Pathologic complete response (pCR); chemoradiation; esophageal cancer; nomogram score
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