title: A spatial individual-based model predicting a great impact of copious sugar sources and resting sites on survival of Anopheles gambiae and malaria parasite transmission.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Agent-based modelling (ABM) has been used to simulate mosquito life cycles and to evaluate vector control applications. However, most models lack sugar-feeding and resting behaviours or are based on mathematical equations lacking individual level randomness and spatial components of mosquito life. Here, a spatial individual-based model (IBM) incorporating sugar-feeding and resting behaviours of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae was developed to estimate the impact of environmental sugar sources and resting sites on survival and biting behaviour.
  
  
  METHODS
  A spatial IBM containing An. gambiae mosquitoes and humans, as well as the village environment of houses, sugar sources, resting sites and larval habitat sites was developed. Anopheles gambiae behaviour rules were attributed at each step of the IBM: resting, host seeking, sugar feeding and breeding. Each step represented one second of time, and each simulation was set to run for 60 days and repeated 50 times. Scenarios of different densities and spatial distributions of sugar sources and outdoor resting sites were simulated and compared.
  
  
  RESULTS
  When the number of natural sugar sources was increased from 0 to 100 while the number of resting sites was held constant, mean daily survival rate increased from 2.5% to 85.1% for males and from 2.5% to 94.5% for females, mean human biting rate increased from 0 to 0.94 bites per human per day, and mean daily abundance increased from 1 to 477 for males and from 1 to 1,428 for females. When the number of outdoor resting sites was increased from 0 to 50 while the number of sugar sources was held constant, mean daily survival rate increased from 77.3% to 84.3% for males and from 86.7% to 93.9% for females, mean human biting rate increased from 0 to 0.52 bites per human per day, and mean daily abundance increased from 62 to 349 for males and from 257 to 1120 for females. All increases were significant (P < 0.01). Survival was greater when sugar sources were randomly distributed in the whole village compared to clustering around outdoor resting sites or houses.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Increases in densities of sugar sources or outdoor resting sites significantly increase the survival and human biting rates of An. gambiae mosquitoes. Survival of An. gambiae is more supported by random distribution of sugar sources than clustering of sugar sources around resting sites or houses. Density and spatial distribution of natural sugar sources and outdoor resting sites modulate vector populations and human biting rates, and thus malaria parasite transmission.
authors: Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA. l.zhu3@med.miami.edu.
authors: Lin
authors: L
authors: Zhu
authors: Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA. w.qualls@med.miami.edu.
authors: Whitney A
authors: WA
authors: Qualls
authors: Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK. john.marshall@imperial.ac.uk.
authors: John M
authors: JM
authors: Marshall
authors: Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA. KArheart@biostat.med.miami.edu.
authors: Kris L
authors: KL
authors: Arheart
authors: USGS/Biological Resources Division and Department of Biology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, USA. don_deangelis@usgs.gov.
authors: Donald L
authors: DL
authors: DeAngelis
authors: Department of Marine Biology and Ecology, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA. jmcmanus@rsmas.miami.edu.
authors: John W
authors: JW
authors: McManus
authors: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Odonto-Stomatology, University of Bamako, BP 1805, Bamako, Mali. cheick@icermali.org.
authors: Sekou F
authors: SF
authors: Traore
authors: Malaria Research and Training Center, Faculty of Medicine, Pharmacy and Odonto-Stomatology, University of Bamako, BP 1805, Bamako, Mali. sdoumbi@icermali.org.
authors: Seydou
authors: S
authors: Doumbia
authors: Department of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, IMRIC, Kuvin Centre for the Study of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel. yosefs@ekmd.huji.ac.il.
authors: Yosef
authors: Y
authors: Schlein
authors: Department of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, IMRIC, Kuvin Centre for the Study of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel. guntercmuller@hotmail.com.
authors: Günter C
authors: GC
authors: Müller
authors: Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA. JBeier@med.miami.edu.
authors: John C
authors: JC
authors: Beier
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000852:Anopheles / Q000469:parasitology* / Q000502:physiology*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005247:Feeding Behavior; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000469:parasitology* / Q000502:physiology*; D008297:Male; D012726:Sexual Behavior, Animal; D016019:Survival Analysis
references: Malar J. 2007;6:113
references: 17711580
references: J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1994 Jun;10(2 Pt 2):288-96
references: 8965081
references: Malar J. 2010;9:210
references: 20663142
references: J Med Entomol. 1996 Jul;33(4):613-8
references: 8699456
references: J Insect Physiol. 2010 Feb;56(2):151-6
references: 19782687
references: J Vector Ecol. 2004 Jun;29(1):140-53
references: 15266751
references: Malar J. 2003 May 7;2:9
references: 12801421
references: Parassitologia. 1996 Dec;38(3):481-9
references: 9257337
references: PLoS One. 2010;5(1):e8951
references: 20126628
references: Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2007 Sep;101(9):867-80
references: 17631372
references: Malar J. 2013;12:291
references: 23968494
references: Bull Entomol Res. 2001 Aug;91(4):289-96
references: 11587625
references: J Med Entomol. 2000 Sep;37(5):664-74
references: 11004777
references: Anim Behav. 2011 Apr 1;81(4):765-774
references: 21499504
references: J Med Entomol. 2007 Nov;44(6):923-9
references: 18047189
references: PLoS Med. 2010;7(8):e1000303
references: 20689800
references: Bull Entomol Res. 2003 Oct;93(5):375-81
references: 14641976
references: Med Vet Entomol. 1992 Oct;6(4):325-34
references: 1463897
references: Malar J. 2011;10:80
references: 21477321
references: Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2012 Oct;87(4):727-36
references: 22927493
references: Malar J. 2009;8:19
references: 19166589
references: Med Vet Entomol. 2006 Sep;20(3):308-16
references: 17044882
references: Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2009 Nov;103(11):1105-12
references: 19200566
references: J Med Entomol. 2001 Jan;38(1):22-8
references: 11268686
references: Malar J. 2002 Dec 18;1:19
references: 12537599
references: Annu Rev Entomol. 1995;40:443-74
references: 7810991
references: Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2005 Sep;73(3):546-52
references: 16172479
references: J Med Entomol. 1996 Jul;33(4):608-12
references: 8699455
references: Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2000 May;62(5):535-44
references: 11289661
references: Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2006 Jan;74(1):3-11
references: 16407338
references: Bull Entomol Res. 2004 Oct;94(5):441-8
references: 15385063
references: J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1986 Jun;2(2):150-3
references: 3507484
references: Malar J. 2013;12:13
references: 23297732
references: Med Vet Entomol. 1993 Oct;7(4):328-32
references: 8268486
references: Malar J. 2013;12:290
references: 23965136
references: PLoS One. 2011;6(1):e15996
references: 21283732
references: J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1987 Sep;3(3):433-41
references: 3504928
references: Malar J. 2012;11:3
references: 22217265