title: The past, present, and future of cancer incidence in the United States: 1975 through 2020.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The overall age-standardized cancer incidence rate continues to decline whereas the number of cases diagnosed each year increases. Predicting cancer incidence can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform research.
  
  
  METHODS
  Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were used to estimate the number of cancers (all sites) resulting from changes in population risk, age, and size. The authors projected to 2020 nationwide age-standardized incidence rates and cases (including the top 23 cancers).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Since 1975, incident cases increased among white individuals, primarily caused by an aging white population, and among black individuals, primarily caused by an increasing black population. Between 2010 and 2020, it is expected that overall incidence rates (proxy for risk) will decrease slightly among black men and stabilize in other groups. By 2020, the authors predict annual cancer cases (all races, all sites) to increase among men by 24.1% (-3.2% risk and 27.3% age/growth) to >1 million cases, and by 20.6% among women (1.2% risk and 19.4% age/growth) to >900,000 cases. The largest increases are expected for melanoma (white individuals); cancers of the prostate, kidney, liver, and urinary bladder in males; and the lung, breast, uterus, and thyroid in females.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Overall, the authors predict cancer incidence rates/risk to stabilize for the majority of the population; however, they expect the number of cancer cases to increase by >20%. A greater emphasis on primary prevention and early detection is needed to counter the effect of an aging and growing population on the burden of cancer.
authors: Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors: Hannah K
authors: HK
authors: Weir
authors: Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors: Trevor D
authors: TD
authors: Thompson
authors: Northrop Grumman Corporation, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors: Ashwini
authors: A
authors: Soman
authors: Department of Registration, Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway.
authors: Bjørn
authors: B
authors: Møller
authors: Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors: Steven
authors: S
authors: Leadbetter
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018426:SEER Program; D014481:United States
keywords: cancer; cancer registries; incidence; predictions; projections; surveillance
references: J Clin Oncol. 2009 Jun 10;27(17):2758-65
references: 19403886
references: NCHS Data Brief. 2013 Jul;(125):1-8
references: 24152376
references: Br J Cancer. 2007 May 7;96(9):1484-8
references: 17473821
references: Eur J Cancer Prev. 2002 Jun;11 Suppl 1:S1-96
references: 12442806
references: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2013 Feb 6;105(3):175-201
references: 23297039
references: Chronic Dis Can. 2011 Mar;31(2):71-8
references: 21466757
references: J Am Acad Dermatol. 2011 Nov;65(5 Suppl 1):S17-25.e1-3
references: 22018063
references: Cancer. 2002 May 15;94(10):2766-92
references: 12173348
references: Eur J Public Health. 2014 Dec;24(6):1017-22
references: 24596400
references: J Oncol Pract. 2014 Jan;10(1):39-45
references: 24443733
references: Int J Clin Oncol. 2008 Apr;13(2):102-11
references: 18463952
references: Am J Manag Care. 2012 Sep;18(9):525-32
references: 23009303
references: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2011 May;20(5):733-9
references: 21357727
references: J Adolesc Young Adult Oncol. 2011 Jun;1(2):95-102
references: 26812631
references: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 1999 Dec;8(12):1117-21
references: 10613347
references: N Engl J Med. 2007 Apr 19;356(16):1670-4
references: 17442911
references: Prostate Cancer. 2012;2012:691380
references: 23251806
references: Cancer. 2010 Feb 1;116(3):544-73
references: 19998273
references: Cancer. 2014 May 1;120(9):1290-314
references: 24343171
references: Healthy People 2010 Stat Notes. 2001 Jan;(20):1-10
references: 11676466
references: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2011 Jan 19;103(2):117-28
references: 21228314
references: Cancer. 2010 Jul 15;116(14):3477-84
references: 20564103
references: J Registry Manag. 2012 Winter;39(4):178-84
references: 23493024
references: Cancer Causes Control. 2003 Mar;14(2):175-93
references: 12749723
references: Cancer Causes Control. 2004 Dec;15(10):1027-34
references: 15801487
references: Thyroid. 2013 Jul;23(7):885-91
references: 23517343
references: MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2011 Mar 11;60(9):269-72
references: 21389929
references: J Natl Cancer Inst. 1999 Jun 16;91(12):1017-24
references: 10379964
references: Nat Rev Cancer. 2006 Jan;6(1):63-74
references: 16372017
references: J Invest Dermatol. 2009 Jul;129(7):1666-74
references: 19131946
references: Int J Cancer. 2003 May 20;105(1):101-7
references: 12672038
references: Br J Cancer. 2011 Nov 22;105(11):1795-803
references: 22033277
references: Cancer. 2012 May 1;118(9):2338-66
references: 22460733
references: Eur J Cancer Prev. 2005 Apr;14(2):117-28
references: 15785315
references: J Registry Manag. 2013 Fall;40(3):115-21; quiz 144-5
references: 24643213
references: MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2007 Jun 8;56(22):549-53
references: 17557070
references: Health Aff (Millwood). 2013 Oct;32(10):1766-72
references: 24101067
references: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2008 Dec 3;100(23):1672-94
references: 19033571
references: Stat Med. 2003 Sep 15;22(17):2751-66
references: 12939784
references: Health Aff (Millwood). 2012 Aug;31(8):1803-13
references: 22869659