title: Predictors of difficulty in carrying out basic activities of daily living among the old-old: A 2-year community-based cohort study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To present practical predictors for the difficulty of carrying out basic activities of daily living (ADL) among the old-old during a 2-year period.
  
  
  METHODS
  Assessment was carried out using data obtained from the Tosa Longitudinal Aging Study, a community-based cohort survey on geriatric functions in the elderly. Predictor variables measured at baseline included age; sex; height; weight; blood pressure; oxygen saturation; neurobehavioral functions, such as Mini-Mental State Examination, Kohs Block Design test, Timed Up and Go test, button score, functional reach test, geriatric depression scale, cardio-ankle vascular index, ankle brachial pressure index; and blood chemical results, such as hemoglobin, fasting blood sugar, hemoglobin A1c, serum lipids, serum albumin and serum creatinine. The outcome variable was the presence of difficulties while carrying out basic ADL after 2 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Age of ≥85 years, Timed Up and Go test of ≥15 s, button score of >17 s and presence of knee pain were independent predictors of difficulty in carrying out basic ADL after 2 years. Elderly individuals who have had at least two positive findings out of these four variables were likely to have impaired basic ADL during a 2-year period with a positive predictive value of 52.0%, negative predictive value of 90.2%, sensitivity of 70.3% and specificity of 80.8%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Assessment of age, Timed Up and Go test, manual dexterity, and presence of knee pain is a useful and relevant way to identify patients who should be informed about their likelihood of developing difficulties in carrying out basic ADL.
authors: Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.|Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.|Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Ryota
authors: R
authors: Sakamoto
authors: Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.|Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Kiyohito
authors: K
authors: Okumiya
authors: Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Masayuki
authors: M
authors: Ishine
authors: Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Taizo
authors: T
authors: Wada
authors: Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Michiko
authors: M
authors: Fujisawa
authors: Department of Field Medicine, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Hissei
authors: H
authors: Imai
authors: Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Yasuko
authors: Y
authors: Ishimoto
authors: Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Yumi
authors: Y
authors: Kimura
authors: Department of Field Medicine, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Eriko
authors: E
authors: Fukutomi
authors: Department of Field Medicine, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Wenling
authors: W
authors: Chen
authors: Department of Field Medicine, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Kwanchit
authors: K
authors: Sasiwongsaroj
authors: Department of Field Medicine, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Emiko
authors: E
authors: Kato
authors: Medical Center East, Tokyo Women's Medical University, Tokyo, Japan.
authors: Kuniaki
authors: K
authors: Otsuka
authors: Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.|Department of Field Medicine, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Kozo
authors: K
authors: Matsubayashi
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000367:Age Factors; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011379:Prognosis; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: basic activities of daily living; comprehensive geriatric assessment; knee pain; manual dexterity; predictor