title: Development of a non-melanoma skin cancer detection model.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The incidence and prevalence of skin cancer is rising. A detection model could support the (screening) process of diagnosing non-melanoma skin cancer.
  
  
  METHODS
  A questionnaire was developed containing potential actinic keratosis (AK) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) characteristics. Three nurses diagnosed 204 patients with a lesion suspicious of skin (pre)malignancy and filled in the questionnaire. Logistic regression analyses generated prediction models for AK and BCC.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A prediction model containing nine characteristics correctly predicted the presence or absence of AK in 83.2% of the cases. BCC was predicted correctly in 91.4% of the cases by a model containing eight characteristics. The nurses correctly diagnosed AK in 88.3% and BCC in 90.9% of the cases.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Detection or screening models for AK and BCC could be made with a limited number of variables. Nurses also diagnosed skin lesions correctly in a high percentage of cases. Further research is necessary to investigate the robustness of these findings, whether the percentage of correct diagnoses can be improved and how best to implement model-based prediction in the diagnostic process.
authors: MohsA Skin Cancer Clinic, Venray and Eindhoven, The Netherlands.
authors: Simone
authors: S
authors: van der Geer
authors: P Ad M
authors: PA
authors: Kleingeld
authors: Chris C P
authors: CC
authors: Snijders
authors: Frank J C H
authors: FJ
authors: Rinkens
authors: Geert A E
authors: GA
authors: Jansen
authors: H A Martino
authors: HA
authors: Neumann
authors: Gertruud A M
authors: GA
authors: Krekels
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002280:Basal Cell Carcinoma / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology; D002983:Clinical Competence; D003880:Dermatology; D005188:False Negative Reactions; D005189:False Positive Reactions; D005260:Female; D058005:General Practitioners; D006801:Humans; D055623:Keratosis, Actinic / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D057184:Practice Patterns, Nurses'; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012878:Skin Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires