title: A quantitative approach for integrating multiple lines of evidence for the evaluation of environmental health risks.
abstract: Decision analysis often considers multiple lines of evidence during the decision making process. Researchers and government agencies have advocated for quantitative weight-of-evidence approaches in which multiple lines of evidence can be considered when estimating risk. Therefore, we utilized Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to integrate several human-health risk assessment, biomonitoring, and epidemiology studies that have been conducted for two common insecticides (malathion and permethrin) used for adult mosquito management to generate an overall estimate of risk quotient (RQ). The utility of the Bayesian inference for risk management is that the estimated risk represents a probability distribution from which the probability of exceeding a threshold can be estimated. The mean RQs after all studies were incorporated were 0.4386, with a variance of 0.0163 for malathion and 0.3281 with a variance of 0.0083 for permethrin. After taking into account all of the evidence available on the risks of ULV insecticides, the probability that malathion or permethrin would exceed a level of concern was less than 0.0001. Bayesian estimates can substantially improve decisions by allowing decision makers to estimate the probability that a risk will exceed a level of concern by considering seemingly disparate lines of evidence.
authors: Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University , Bozeman, MT , USA.
authors: Jerome J
authors: JJ
authors: Schleier Iii
authors: Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University , Bozeman, MT , USA.
authors: Lucy A
authors: LA
authors: Marshall
authors: Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University , Bozeman, MT , USA.
authors: Ryan S
authors: RS
authors: Davis
authors: Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University , Bozeman, MT , USA.
authors: Robert K D
authors: RK
authors: Peterson
keywords: Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Decision analysis; Mosquito management; Pesticide; Risk assessment; Uncertainty analysis
references: J Med Entomol. 2009 May;46(3):693-702
references: 19496443
references: Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2006 Oct;2(4):302-11
references: 17069173
references: Risk Anal. 2005 Dec;25(6):1545-57
references: 16506981
references: Pest Manag Sci. 2007 Jul;63(7):641-6
references: 17373672
references: J Urban Health. 2001 Jun;78(2):372-81
references: 11419588
references: Environ Sci Technol. 2009 Jan 1;43(1):128-34
references: 19209595
references: Arch Environ Contam Toxicol. 2010 Jan;58(1):105-11
references: 19536586
references: Risk Anal. 2005 Jun;25(3):651-62
references: 16022697
references: Environ Health Perspect. 2006 Mar;114(3):366-72
references: 16507459
references: J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol. 2009 Jan;19(1):30-44
references: 18385670
references: Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2008 Jul;4(3):306-13
references: 18324871
references: Pest Manag Sci. 2006 Jan;62(1):46-56
references: 16217731
references: Am J Emerg Med. 2005 Jul;23(4):463-7
references: 16032612
references: Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2007 Jul;3(3):373-82
references: 17695110
references: Environ Sci Technol. 2006 Jan 1;40(1):395-401
references: 16433377
references: J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 2008 Mar;24(1):42-6
references: 18437813
references: J Urban Health. 2002 Dec;79(4):482-90
references: 12468668
references: Sci Total Environ. 2009 Sep 15;407(19):5199-205
references: 19619890
references: Risk Anal. 2009 Feb;29(2):249-56
references: 19000080
references: Risk Anal. 1993 Aug;13(4):403-12
references: 8234948
references: MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2005 Jun 3;54(21):529-32
references: 15931155
references: J Toxicol Environ Health A. 2007 Oct;70(20):1758-71
references: 17885933
references: Stat Methods Med Res. 2001 Aug;10(4):277-303
references: 11491414
references: Environ Health Perspect. 2004 Aug;112(11):1183-7
references: 15289164
references: Environ Toxicol Chem. 2008 May;27(5):1063-8
references: 18419202
references: Am J Epidemiol. 1998 Nov 15;148(10):929-36
references: 9829864
references: Environ Health Perspect. 2000 Oct;108 Suppl 5:883-93
references: 11035998
references: Clin Infect Dis. 2001 Nov 15;33(10):1713-9
references: 11595987
references: Sci Total Environ. 2011 Mar 15;409(8):1406-17
references: 21277006