title: Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China.
abstract: The arid region of Northwest China, located in the central Asia, responds sensitively to global climate change. Based on the newest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on hydrology and the water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The analysis results show that: (1) In the northwest arid region, temperature and precipitation experienced "sharply" increasing in the past 50 years. The precipitation trend changed in 1987, and since then has been in a state of high volatility, during the 21st century, the increasing rate of precipitation was diminished. Temperature experienced a "sharply" increase in 1997; however, this sharp increasing trend has turned to an apparent hiatus since the 21st century. The dramatic rise in winter temperatures in the northwest arid region is an important reason for the rise in the average annual temperature, and substantial increases in extreme winter minimum temperature play an important role in the rising average winter temperature; (2) There was a significant turning point in the change of pan evaporation in the northwest arid area in 1993, i.e., in which a significant decline reversed to a significant upward trend. In the 21st century, the negative effects of global warming and increasing levels of evaporation on the ecology of the northwest arid region have been highlighted; (3) Glacier change has a significant impact on hydrology in the northwest arid area, and glacier inflection points have appeared in some rivers. The melting water supply of the Tarim River Basin possesses a large portion of water supplies (about 50%). In the future, the amount of surface water will probably remain at a high state of fluctuation.
authors: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China. Electronic address: chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn.
authors: Yaning
authors: Y
authors: Chen
authors: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China. Electronic address: liz@ms.xjb.ac.cn.
authors: Zhi
authors: Z
authors: Li
authors: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China. Electronic address: fanyt@ms.xjb.ac.cn.
authors: Yuting
authors: Y
authors: Fan
authors: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China. Electronic address: wanghj@ms.xjb.ac.cn.
authors: Huaijun
authors: H
authors: Wang
authors: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China. Electronic address: denghj@ms.xjb.ac.cn.
authors: Haijun
authors: H
authors: Deng
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D057231:Climate Change / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003889:Desert Climate; D062070:Hydrology / Q000639:trends*; D046448:Ice Cover; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011891:Rain; D012914:Snow; D058438:Water Cycle; D062066:Water Resources / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
keywords: Climate change; Northwest arid area; Water resources