title: Estimating the effects of a calorie-based sugar-sweetened beverage tax on weight and obesity in New York City adults using dynamic loss models.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) contribute to weight gain and increase the risk of obesity. In this article, we determine the effects of an innovative SSB tax on weight and obesity in New York City adults.
  
  
  METHODS
  Dynamic weight loss models were used to estimate the effects of an expected 5800-calorie reduction resulting from an SSB tax on weight and obesity. Baseline data were derived from the New York City Community Health Survey. One, five, and 10-year simulations of weight loss were performed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Calorie reductions resulted in a per-person weight loss of 0.46 kg in year 1 and 0.92 kg in year 10. A total of 5,531,059 kg was expected to be lost over 10 years when weighted to the full New York City adult population. Approximately 50% of overall bodyweight loss occurred within the first year, and 95% within 5 years. Results showed consistent but nonsignificant decreases in obesity prevalence.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  SSB taxes may be viable strategies to reduce obesity when combined with other interventions to maximize effects in the population.
authors: Department of Epidemiology & Health Promotion, New York University College of Dentistry, New York University Global Institute of Public Health, New York. Electronic address: ryan.ruff@nyu.edu.
authors: Ryan Richard
authors: RR
authors: Ruff
authors: Food and Nutrition Policy Research Program, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC.
authors: Chen
authors: C
authors: Zhen
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D015992:Body Mass Index; D002253:Carbonated Beverages / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000191:economics; D004040:Dietary Carbohydrates / Q000009:adverse effects*; D002149:Energy Intake; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009519:New York City; D009765:Obesity / Q000191:economics / Q000209:etiology*; D050177:Overweight / Q000191:economics / Q000209:etiology; D013549:Sweetening Agents / Q000009:adverse effects; D013660:Taxes; D014505:Urban Population; D015431:Weight Loss / Q000502:physiology*
chemical_list: D004040:Dietary Carbohydrates; D013549:Sweetening Agents
keywords: Dynamic weight loss modeling; Obesity; Sugar-sweetened beverage; Taxes