title: Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014.
abstract: Between March and June 2014 the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) had a large outbreak of MERS-CoV, renewing fears of a major outbreak during the Hajj this October. Using KSA Ministry of Health data, the MERS-CoV Scenario and Modeling Working Group forecast incidence under three scenarios. In the expected incidence scenario, we estimate 6.2 (95% Prediction Interval [PI]: 1-17) pilgrims will develop MERS-CoV symptoms during the Hajj, and 4.0 (95% PI: 0-12) foreign pilgrims will be infected but return home before developing symptoms. In the most pessimistic scenario, 47.6 (95% PI: 32-66) cases will develop symptoms during the Hajj, and 29.0 (95% PI: 17-43) will be infected but return home asymptomatic. Large numbers of MERS-CoV cases are unlikely to occur during the 2014 Hajj even under pessimistic assumptions, but careful monitoring is still needed to detect possible mass infection events and minimize introductions into other countries.
authors: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
authors: Justin
authors: J
authors: Lessler
authors: DepartJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
authors: Isabel
authors: I
authors: Rodriguez-Barraquer
authors: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
authors: Derek A T
authors: DA
authors: Cummings
authors: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK.
authors: Tini
authors: T
authors: Garske
authors: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK.
authors: Maria
authors: M
authors: Van Kerkhove
authors: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK.
authors: Harriet
authors: H
authors: Mills
authors: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
authors: Shaun
authors: S
authors: Truelove
authors: Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
authors: Rafat
authors: R
authors: Hakeem
authors: Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
authors: Ali
authors: A
authors: Albarrak
authors: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, London, UK.
authors: Neil M
authors: NM
authors: Ferguson
keywords: MERS-coronavirus; infectious disease