title: Modeling and forecasting of the under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah province in Iran: a time series analysis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The target of the Fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of the MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration.
  
  
  METHODS
  The under-five mortality data available from the Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis of the monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, the unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with a periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be consequences of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The present work is the first attempt at time series modeling of the U5MR in Iran, and reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge to fully achieving the MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards the MGD-4, and predict the impact of future variations on the U5MR.
authors: Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
authors: Mehran
authors: M
authors: Rostami
authors: Department of Statistics, Faculty of Sciences, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.
authors: Abdollah
authors: A
authors: Jalilian
authors: Research Center for Health Sciences, Department of Health Education and Promotion, School of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
authors: Behrooz
authors: B
authors: Hamzeh
authors: Deputy of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
authors: Zahra
authors: Z
authors: Laghaei
keywords: Fourth Millennium Development Goal; Infant mortality; Iran; Seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average model; Time series