title: Use of expert knowledge elicitation to estimate parameters in health economic decision models.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and methods of expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) for specifying input parameters in health economic decision models (HEDM).
  
  
  METHODS
  We created two samples using the National Health System Economic Evaluations Database: (1) 100 randomly selected HEDM studies to determine prevalence of EKE and (2) sixty studies using a formal EKE process to determine methods used.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Fifty-seven (57 percent) of the random sample included at least one EKE-derived parameter. Of these, six (10 percent) used a formal expert process. Thirty-four studies from our second sample of sixty studies (57 percent) described at least one aspect of the process (e.g., elicitation method) with reasonable clarity. In approximately two-thirds of studies the external experts estimated parameters de novo; the remainder confirmed or modified initial estimates provided by authors, or the method was unclear. The majority of elicitations obtained point estimates only, although a few studies asked experts to estimate ranges of parameter values.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The use of EKE for parameter estimation is common in HEDMs, although there is room for improvement in the methods used.
authors: Burden of Disease Epidemiology,Equity and Cost Effectiveness Programme,Department of Public Health,University of Otago,Wellington,PO Box 7343,Wellington,New Zealandtony.blakely@otago.ac.nz.
authors: David
authors: D
authors: Hadorn
authors: Burden of Disease Epidemiology,Equity and Cost Effectiveness Programme,Department of Public Health,University of Otago,Wellington,PO Box 7343,Wellington,New Zealandtony.blakely@otago.ac.nz.
authors: Giorgi
authors: G
authors: Kvizhinadze
authors: Burden of Disease Epidemiology,Equity and Cost Effectiveness Programme,Department of Public Health,University of Otago,Wellington,PO Box 7343,Wellington,New Zealandtony.blakely@otago.ac.nz.
authors: Lucie
authors: L
authors: Collinson
authors: Burden of Disease Epidemiology,Equity and Cost Effectiveness Programme,Department of Public Health,University of Otago,Wellington,PO Box 7343,Wellington,New Zealandtony.blakely@otago.ac.nz.
authors: Tony
authors: T
authors: Blakely
mesh_terms: D016208:Databases, Factual; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004470:Economics, Medical; D007722:Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice; D013673:Technology Assessment, Biomedical / Q000191:economics
keywords: Biomedical technology