title: Carnival or football, is there a real risk for acquiring dengue fever in Brazil during holidays seasons?
abstract: More than 600,000 football fans, coming from all over the world, were expected to visit Brazil during the FIFA World Cup 2014. International travel can become a public health problem when the visitors start to become sick, needing medical intervention and eventually hospitalization. The occurrence of dengue fever infections in Brazil is persistent and has been increasing since the 1980s, and the health authorities were expected to take preventive measures and to warn the visitors about the risks during the tournament period. Before the World Cup started, studies have been published stating that dengue could be a significant problem in some of the Brazilian cities hosting the games. These conclusions were taken after a brief observation of the available data, analyzing its mean and standard deviation only, or based on seasonal climate forecasts, causing alarm for the world cup in Brazil. Here, with a more careful data analysis, we show that the seasonality of the disease plays a major role in dengue transmission. The density of dengue cases in Brazil is residual during winter in the Southern hemisphere (mid June to mid September) and the fans of football were not likely to get dengue during the tournament period.
authors: 1] Centro de Matemática e Aplicações Fundamentais, Lisbon University, Portugal [2] Laboratório de dengue e febre amarela, Fundação Ezequiel Dias, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
authors: Maíra
authors: M
authors: Aguiar
authors: Centro de Matemática e Aplicações Fundamentais, Lisbon University, Portugal.
authors: Filipe
authors: F
authors: Rocha
authors: 1] Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Belo Horizonte, Brazil [2] Observatório de Saúde Urbana de Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais Federal University, Brazil.
authors: José Eduardo Marques
authors: JE
authors: Pessanha
authors: Centro de Matemática e Aplicações Fundamentais, Lisbon University, Portugal.
authors: Luis
authors: L
authors: Mateus
authors: Centro de Matemática e Aplicações Fundamentais, Lisbon University, Portugal.
authors: Nico
authors: N
authors: Stollenwerk
mesh_terms: D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D016208:Databases, Factual; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D006693:Holidays; D006801:Humans; D011634:Public Health; D012306:Risk; D012621:Seasons; D012916:Soccer; D014195:Travel