title: What actually confers adaptive capacity? Insights from agro-climatic vulnerability of Australian wheat.
abstract: Vulnerability assessments have often invoked sustainable livelihoods theory to support the quantification of adaptive capacity based on the availability of capital--social, human, physical, natural, and financial. However, the assumption that increased availability of these capitals confers greater adaptive capacity remains largely untested. We quantified the relationship between commonly used capital indicators and an empirical index of adaptive capacity (ACI) in the context of vulnerability of Australian wheat production to climate variability and change. We calculated ACI by comparing actual yields from farm survey data to climate-driven expected yields estimated by a crop model for 12 regions in Australia's wheat-sheep zone from 1991-2010. We then compiled data for 24 typical indicators used in vulnerability analyses, spanning the five capitals. We analyzed the ACI and used regression techniques to identify related capital indicators. Between regions, mean ACI was not significantly different but variance over time was. ACI was higher in dry years and lower in wet years suggesting that farm adaptive strategies are geared towards mitigating losses rather than capitalizing on opportunity. Only six of the 24 capital indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity in a way predicted by theory. Another four indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity but of the opposite sign, countering our theory-driven expectation. We conclude that the deductive, theory-based use of capitals to define adaptive capacity and vulnerability should be more circumspect. Assessments need to be more evidence-based, first testing the relevance and influence of capital metrics on adaptive capacity for the specific system of interest. This will more effectively direct policy and targeting of investment to mitigate agro-climatic vulnerability.
authors: CSIRO Land and Water Flagship and Agriculture Flagship, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, South Australia, Australia.
authors: Brett A
authors: BA
authors: Bryan
authors: CSIRO Land and Water Flagship and Agriculture Flagship, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, South Australia, Australia; College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China.
authors: Jianjun
authors: J
authors: Huai
authors: CSIRO Land and Water Flagship and Agriculture Flagship, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, South Australia, Australia.
authors: Jeff
authors: J
authors: Connor
authors: CSIRO Land and Water Flagship and Agriculture Flagship, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, South Australia, Australia.
authors: Lei
authors: L
authors: Gao
authors: CSIRO Land and Water Flagship and Agriculture Flagship, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, South Australia, Australia.
authors: Darran
authors: D
authors: King
authors: CSIRO Land and Water Flagship and Agriculture Flagship, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, South Australia, Australia.
authors: John
authors: J
authors: Kandulu
authors: CSIRO Land and Water Flagship and Agriculture Flagship, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, South Australia, Australia; Crop Science Group, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
authors: Gang
authors: G
authors: Zhao
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000379:methods; D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia; D057231:Climate Change; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000254:growth & development*; D012756:Sheep; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014908:Triticum / Q000254:growth & development*