title: Hendra virus survival does not explain spillover patterns and implicates relatively direct transmission routes from flying foxes to horses.
abstract: Hendra virus (HeV) is lethal to humans and horses, and little is known about its epidemiology. Biosecurity restrictions impede advances, particularly on understanding pathways of transmission. Quantifying the environmental survival of HeV can be used for making decisions and to infer transmission pathways. We estimated HeV survival with a Weibull distribution and calculated parameters from data generated in laboratory experiments. HeV survival rates based on air temperatures 24 h after excretion ranged from 2 to 10 % in summer and from 12 to 33 % in winter. Simulated survival across the distribution of the black flying fox (Pteropus alecto), a key reservoir host, did not predict spillover events. Based on our analyses we concluded that the most likely pathways of transmission did not require long periods of virus survival and were likely to involve relatively direct contact with flying fox excreta shortly after excretion.
authors: James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
authors: Gerardo
authors: G
authors: Martin
authors: Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA.|Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA.|James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
authors: Raina
authors: R
authors: Plowright
authors: Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.|James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
authors: Carla
authors: C
authors: Chen
authors: James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
authors: David
authors: D
authors: Kault
authors: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Geelong, Victoria, Australia.
authors: Paul
authors: P
authors: Selleck
authors: James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
authors: Lee F
authors: LF
authors: Skerratt
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002685:Chiroptera / Q000821:virology*; D045404:Hendra Virus / Q000235:genetics* / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D045464:Henipavirus Infections / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary* / Q000821:virology; D006736:Horses / Q000821:virology*; D050296:Microbial Viability; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012621:Seasons