title: [Consequences of increasing and ageing population of Basse-Normandie on gynecology and obstetrics activity].
abstract: BACKGROUND
  In Basse-Normandie, the population over 65 years old will expend more rapidly between 2007 and 2042 (+11.6%) than the rest of the French population (+9.2%). The same population of Basse-Normandie will get old in the 15 years to come. The impact of these demographic changes over the activity in the gynecology-obstetrics field is not clearly identified. Although we cannot predict the technical and scientific developments in the next 15 years, we are presenting a model allowing to hypothesize about changes of gynecology and obstetrics according to population's aging.
  
  
  METHODS
  We have established a projection model for the realizable surgical acts in obstetrics and gynecology in accordance with the aging of the population in Basse-Normandie. The study was realized based on the acts concerning the cesarean sections (C-section), tubal sterilization, hysteroscopy and hysterectomy as well as ovarectomy and breast surgery. For each activity branch, the codes of the Classification commune des actes médicaux (CCAM) were selected and then removed from the Programme médicalisé des systèmes d'information (PMSI) database. We have used and adapted the Omphale model of the National Statistics and Economical Studies Institute and we have applied it for the period of 2009-2025.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Our projection model has permeated to show a 5.5% regression of the C-section acts, a 2% incretion of the hysterectomies and hysteroscopies, 7.7% of ovarectomies as well as a 9.8% augmentation of the breast surgeries. However, we predict a 11.8% diminution of the sterilizations by tubal implants. Globally, the activity in obstetrics and gynecology will remain constant with an insignificant augmentation of 46 acts (0.01%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In Basse-Normandie, the surgical activity in gynecology-obstetrics will moderately increase in the next 15 years. This constant activity signifies that there is no need to form more residents than the number of practitioner to retire. The interest of this model is that it is applicable at a national level and it permits to confront the demographic data and the projections of different activities.
authors: Service de gynécologie-obstétrique et médecine de la reproduction, CHU de Caen, avenue Côte-de-Nacre, 14000 Caen, France. Electronic address: maria_mandon@yahoo.fr.
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Mandon
authors: Département ville, échanges et territoires, Centre national des arts et métiers, LIRSA, EA 4603, 75000 Paris, France.
authors: J-M
authors: JM
authors: Macé
authors: Service de gynécologie-obstétrique et médecine de la reproduction, CHU de Caen, avenue Côte-de-Nacre, 14000 Caen, France; UFR de médecine, université de Caen, avenue Côte-de-Nacre, 14000 Caen, France.
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Dreyfus
authors: Service de chirurgie vasculaire, CHU de Caen, avenue Côte-de-Nacre, 14000 Caen, France; UFR de médecine, université de Caen, avenue Côte-de-Nacre, 14000 Caen, France.
authors: L
authors: L
authors: Berger
mesh_terms: D005602:France; D006176:Gynecology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009774:Obstetrics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth
keywords: Gynecology and obstetrics; Gynécologie; Healthcare assessment; Healthcare planning; Hospital information system; Obstétrique; Planification des soins; Système d’information hospitalière; Évaluation des soins