title: Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission.
abstract: Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems.
authors: Department of Public Health and Policy, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, UK Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London W2 1PG, UK paul.parham@liverpool.ac.uk.
authors: Paul E
authors: PE
authors: Parham
authors: The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK.
authors: Joanna
authors: J
authors: Waldock
authors: Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK.
authors: George K
authors: GK
authors: Christophides
authors: Meteorological Office Hadley Centre, UK Meteorological Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK.
authors: Deborah
authors: D
authors: Hemming
authors: Department of Mathematics, Austin Peay State University, Clarksville, TN 37044, USA.
authors: Folashade
authors: F
authors: Agusto
authors: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, PO Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA.
authors: Katherine J
authors: KJ
authors: Evans
authors: Department of Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA.
authors: Nina
authors: N
authors: Fefferman
authors: Department of Biological Sciences, Old Dominium University, Norfolk, VA 23529, USA.
authors: Holly
authors: H
authors: Gaff
authors: Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1904, USA School of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ 85069-7100, USA.
authors: Abba
authors: A
authors: Gumel
authors: Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, PO Box AB, Millbrook, NY 12545-0129, USA.
authors: Shannon
authors: S
authors: LaDeau
authors: Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996-1300, USA.
authors: Suzanne
authors: S
authors: Lenhart
authors: Department of Physics, Clark Atlanta University, PO Box 172, Atlanta, GA 30314, USA.
authors: Ronald E
authors: RE
authors: Mickens
authors: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University School of Engineering, Medford, MA 02155, USA.
authors: Elena N
authors: EN
authors: Naumova
authors: Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, PO Box AB, Millbrook, NY 12545-0129, USA.
authors: Richard S
authors: RS
authors: Ostfeld
authors: Department of Disease Control, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
authors: Paul D
authors: PD
authors: Ready
authors: Department of Entomology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
authors: Matthew B
authors: MB
authors: Thomas
authors: Universidad Nacional Autnoma de Mexico Institute of Mathematics Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico.
authors: Jorge
authors: J
authors: Velasco-Hernandez
authors: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556-0369, USA.
authors: Edwin
authors: E
authors: Michael
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000635:transmission*; D004199:Disease Vectors; D006801:Humans; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors
keywords: climate; climate change; human health; modelling; vector-borne diseases