title: The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection.
abstract: Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach.
authors: Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (CONICET, CCT- La Plata, UNLP), Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Bulevar 120s/n e/61 y 62. La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires B1902CHX, Argentina paulamedone@gmail.com.
authors: Paula
authors: P
authors: Medone
authors: Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (CONICET, CCT- La Plata, UNLP), Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Bulevar 120s/n e/61 y 62. La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires B1902CHX, Argentina.
authors: Soledad
authors: S
authors: Ceccarelli
authors: Department of Public Health and Policy, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, UK Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK.
authors: Paul E
authors: PE
authors: Parham
authors: Instituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas (BIOMED), Universidad de Carabobo, Sede Aragua, Maracay, Venezuela.
authors: Andreína
authors: A
authors: Figuera
authors: Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (CONICET, CCT- La Plata, UNLP), Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Bulevar 120s/n e/61 y 62. La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires B1902CHX, Argentina.
authors: Jorge E
authors: JE
authors: Rabinovich
mesh_terms: D063147:Animal Distribution / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D001118:Argentina; D014355:Chagas Disease / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D057231:Climate Change; D003198:Computer Simulation; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D014225:Triatominae / Q000469:parasitology / Q000502:physiology*; D014687:Venezuela
keywords: Chagas disease; Rhodnius prolixus; Triatoma infestans; climate change; climatic modelling; force of infection