title: The association of weather variability and under five malaria mortality in KEMRI/CDC HDSS in Western Kenya 2003 to 2008: a time series analysis.
abstract: Malaria is among the leading causes of mortality in the younger under-five group of children zero to four years of age. This study aims at describing the relationship between rainfall and temperature on under-five malaria or anaemia mortality in Kenya Medical Research Institute and United States Centers for Disease Control (KEMRI/CDC) Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). This study was conducted through the ongoing KEMRI and CDC collaboration. A general additive model with a Poisson link function was fit to model the weekly association of lagged cumulative rainfall and average temperature on malaria/anemia mortality in KEMRI/CDC HDSS for the period 2003 to 2008. A trend function was included in the model to control for time trends and seasonality not explained by weather fluctuations. 95% confidence intervals was presented with estimates. Malaria or anemia mortality was found to be associated with changes in temperature and rainfall in the KEMRI HDSS, with a delay up to 16 weeks. The empirical estimates of associations describe established biological relationships well. This information, and particularly, the strength of the relationships over longer lead times can highlight the possibility of developing a predictive forecast with lead times up to 16 weeks in order to enhance preparedness to high transmission episodes.
authors: KEMRI Centre for Global Health Research, Kisumu, Kenya, Box 1578, Kisumu 40100, Kenya. msewe@kemricdc.org.|Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå SE-901 85, Sweden. msewe@kemricdc.org.
authors: Maquins
authors: M
authors: Sewe
authors: Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå SE-901 85, Sweden. joacim.rocklov@envmed.umu.se.
authors: Joacim
authors: J
authors: Rocklöv
authors: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centre for Global Health, 600 Clifton Rd, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. jow5@cdc.gov.
authors: John
authors: J
authors: Williamson
authors: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centre for Global Health, 600 Clifton Rd, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. mlh8@cdc.gov.
authors: Mary
authors: M
authors: Hamel
authors: KEMRI Centre for Global Health Research, Kisumu, Kenya, Box 1578, Kisumu 40100, Kenya. namek@kemricdc.org.
authors: Amek
authors: A
authors: Nyaguara
authors: KEMRI Centre for Global Health Research, Kisumu, Kenya, Box 1578, Kisumu 40100, Kenya. fodhiambo@kemricdc.org.
authors: Frank
authors: F
authors: Odhiambo
authors: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centre for Global Health, 600 Clifton Rd, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. kel4@cdc.gov.
authors: Kayla
authors: K
authors: Laserson
mesh_terms: D000740:Anemia / Q000401:mortality; D002648:Child; D046688:Child Mortality; D002675:Child, Preschool; D057231:Climate Change; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007630:Kenya / Q000453:epidemiology; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality*; D011159:Population Surveillance; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors; D014887:Weather