title: A model of the 2014 ebola epidemic in west Africa with contact tracing.
abstract: A differential equations model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The model describes the dynamic interactions of the susceptible and infected populations of these countries. The model incorporates the principle features of contact tracing, namely, the number of contacts per identified infectious case, the likelihood that a traced contact is infectious, and the efficiency of the contact tracing process. The model is first fitted to current cumulative reported case data in each country. The data fitted simulations are then projected forward in time, with varying parameter regimes corresponding to contact tracing efficiencies. These projections quantify the importance of the identification, isolation, and contact tracing processes for containment of the epidemics.
authors: Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
authors: Glenn
authors: G
authors: Webb
authors: Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
authors: Cameron
authors: C
authors: Browne
authors: Department of Mathematics, Ryerson University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
authors: Xi
authors: X
authors: Huo
authors: Ecole Polytechnique de Thiès, Thiès, Sénégal.
authors: Ousmane
authors: O
authors: Seydi
authors: Department of Infectious Diseases, Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal.
authors: Moussa
authors: M
authors: Seydi
authors: Université de Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France.
authors: Pierre
authors: P
authors: Magal
keywords: ebola