title: Present and future projections of habitat suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito, a vector of viral pathogens, from global climate simulation.
abstract: Climate change can influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause chikungunya, dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the twenty-first century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that approximately 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million km(2) will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.
authors: Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus y.proestos@cyi.ac.cy.
authors: Y
authors: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5991-0322
authors: Y
authors: Proestos
authors: Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Life Sciences, South Kensington Campus, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK.
authors: G K
authors: GK
authors: Christophides
authors: Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors: K
authors: K
authors: Ergüler
authors: Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitnerweg 1, 55128 Mainz, Germany.
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Tanarhte
authors: Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Life Sciences, South Kensington Campus, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK.
authors: J
authors: J
authors: Waldock
authors: Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center (CaSToRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitnerweg 1, 55128 Mainz, Germany jos.lelieveld@mpic.de.
authors: J
authors: J
authors: Lelieveld
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000502:physiology*; D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D014943:Global Health; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000502:physiology*; D058865:Introduced Species; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014777:Virus Diseases / Q000635:transmission*
keywords: Aedes albopictus; climate change; global climate modelling; habitat suitability; vector distribution model; vector-borne diseases