title: Nomogram including pretherapeutic parameters for prediction of survival after SIRT of hepatic metastases from colorectal cancer.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Pre-therapeutic prediction of outcome is important for clinicians and patients in determining whether selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) is indicated for hepatic metastases of colorectal cancer (CRC).
  
  
  METHODS
  Pre-therapeutic characteristics of 100 patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) treated by radioembolization were analyzed to develop a nomogram for predicting survival. Prognostic factors were selected by univariate Cox regression analysis and subsequent tested by multivariate analysis for predicting patient survival. The nomogram was validated with reference to an external patient cohort (n = 25) from the Bonn University Department of Nuclear Medicine.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of the 13 parameters tested, four were independently associated with reduced patient survival in multivariate analysis. These parameters included no liver surgery before SIRT (HR:1.81, p = 0.014), CEA serum level ≥ 150 ng/ml (HR:2.08, p = 0.001), transaminase toxicity level ≥2.5× upper limit of normal (HR:2.82, p = 0.001), and summed computed tomography (CT) size of the largest two liver lesions ≥10 cm (HR:2.31, p < 0.001). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for our prediction model was 0.83 for the external patient cohort, indicating superior performance of our multivariate model compared to a model ignoring covariates.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The nomogram developed in our study entailing four pre-therapeutic parameters gives good prediction of patient survival post SIRT.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  • Four individual parameters predicted reduced survival following SIRT in CRC. • These parameters were combined into a nomogram of pre-therapeutic risk stratification. • The model provided good prediction of survival in two independent patient cohorts.
authors.affiliation: Department of Nuclear Medicine, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Munich, Germany, wolfgang.fendler@med.uni-muenchen.de.
authors.forename: Wolfgang Peter
authors.initials: WP
authors.lastname: Fendler
authors.forename: Harun
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ilhan
authors.forename: Philipp M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Paprottka
authors.forename: Tobias F
authors.initials: TF
authors.lastname: Jakobs
authors.forename: Volker
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Heinemann
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Bartenstein
authors.forename: Feras
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Khalaf
authors.forename: Samer
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ezziddin
authors.forename: Marcus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hacker
authors.forename: Alexander R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Haug
mesh_terms: D001918:Brachytherapy / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology*; D005260:Female; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000532:radiotherapy* / Q000556:secondary; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D049451:Nomograms; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D016019:Survival Analysis; D016896:Treatment Outcome