title: Simulating the dynamic effect of land use and transport policies on the health of populations.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We identified the features of a land use-transportation system that optimizes the health and well-being of the population.
  
  
  METHODS
  We developed a quantitative system dynamics model to represent relationships among land use, transport, economic development, and population health. Simulation experiments were conducted over a 10-year simulation period to compare the effect of different baseline conditions and land use-transport policies on the number of motor vehicle crash deaths and disability-adjusted life years lost.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Optimal reduction in the public health burden attributable to land transport was demonstrated when transport safety risk reduction policies were combined with land use and transport polices that minimized reliance on individual motorized transport and maximized use of active transport modes. The model's results were particularly sensitive to the level of development that characterized each city at the start of the simulation period.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Local, national, and international decision-makers are encouraged to address transport, land use, and health as an integrated whole to achieve the desired societal benefits of traffic safety, population health, and social equity.
authors.affiliation: Roderick J. McClure is with the Harvard Injury Prevention Research Center, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA. Claudia Adriazola-Steil is with the World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. Christine Mulvihill, Michael Fitzharris, and Mark Stevenson are with the Accident Research Centre, Monash University, Victoria, Australia. Paul Salmon is with the Accident Research Center, University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, Queensland, Australia. C. Paul Bonnington is with the eResearch Centre, Monash University.
authors.forename: Roderick J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: McClure
authors.forename: Claudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Adriazola-Steil
authors.forename: Christine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Mulvihill
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fitzharris
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Salmon
authors.forename: C Paul
authors.initials: CP
authors.lastname: Bonnington
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stevenson
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D057217:Economic Development / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014943:Global Health; D006304:Health Status; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013597:Systems Analysis; D014186:Transportation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*