title: [Modeling the occurrence of shellfish poisoning outbreaks caused by Gymnodinium catenatum (Dinophyceae) through electromagnetic signal triggering].
abstract: Accumulation of paralytic shellfish poisoning toxins (PSTs) in bivalves attributed to Gymnodinium catenatum blooms at the NW Portuguese coast was previously associated with periods of low solar activity (measured by the radio flux [R]), or low geomagnetic A(a) index. It was also observed that reduction of R preceded the occurrence of toxin accumulation, while A(a) index increase could be related to its absence during periods of low activity. For modeling toxin accumulation, the monthly decrease in R was studied along the decade 2003-2012. A match that helped explaining the highly toxic years of 2007 and 2008 was obtained by plotting the formula: ΔR = (R(n-1) - R(n))/(R(n) - 65)2, where 65 represented the lowest radio activity known to date. The complex denominator was required to take into account the sunspot cycle. A 1-2 month lag was observed between maximal relative decline and maximal PSTs accumulation. PSTs in bivalves from the Portuguese south coast were related with natural electromagnetic cycles for the first time, and were not statistically associated with low R. A statistically significant association with low A(a) index also was not achieved, due to the low number of occurrences, although the 25-75 percentile was restricted to low Aa indexes in a similar way to that found for the NW coast. PSTs accumulation outside solar minima could be triggered by a steep decline in the A(a) index (ΔA), but no lag was observed in this case. While ΔR amplitude helped explaining the highly toxic years of 2007 and 2008 at the NW coast, the amplitude of ΔA was not related to the severity of the accumulation. Other kind of local electromagnetic signaling was investigated resorting to the occurrence of seismologic phenomena, because these events can trigger electric activities. No statistical association was found between seism number or magnitude and PSTs at the south coast, located near the boundary between the African and Eurasian plates, and marked by moderate seismicity.
authors.forename: Pulo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Vale
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D004141:Dinoflagellida / Q000378:metabolism*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005260:Female; D057097:Harmful Algal Bloom / Q000528:radiation effects*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008387:Marine Toxins / Q000378:metabolism*; D008954:Models, Biological; D011174:Portugal / Q000453:epidemiology; D057096:Shellfish Poisoning / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D013472:Sunlight
chemical_list: D008387:Marine Toxins