title: The scientific consensus on climate change as a gateway belief: experimental evidence.
abstract: There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a "gateway belief model" (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America.
authors.forename: Sander L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: van der Linden
authors.affiliation: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
authors.forename: Anthony A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Leiserowitz
authors.affiliation: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
authors.forename: Geoffrey D
authors.initials: GD
authors.lastname: Feinberg
authors.affiliation: Center for Climate Change Communication, Department of Communication, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States of America.
authors.forename: Edward W
authors.initials: EW
authors.lastname: Maibach
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D032921:Consensus; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical