title: The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2,and land use.
abstract: There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO2levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO2fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO2fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO2impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors - climate change, CO2fertilization effects, fire, and land use - to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.
authors.affiliation: Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.|Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA.|Hydrometeorology & Remote Sensing (HyDROS) Laboratory, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA.
authors.forename: Ke
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: The Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA.|Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil.
authors.forename: Andrea D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: de Almeida Castanho
authors.affiliation: School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
authors.forename: David R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Galbraith
authors.affiliation: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
authors.forename: Sanaz
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Moghim
authors.affiliation: Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.|Department of Biological Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Naomi M
authors.initials: NM
authors.lastname: Levine
authors.affiliation: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.|School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
authors.forename: Rafael L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Bras
authors.affiliation: The Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Michael T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Coe
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Vicosa, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
authors.forename: Marcos H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Costa
authors.affiliation: Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Yadvinder
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Malhi
authors.affiliation: Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Marcos
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Longo
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Ryan G
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Knox
authors.affiliation: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
authors.forename: Shawna
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: McKnight
authors.affiliation: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
authors.forename: Jingfeng
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Paul R
authors.initials: PR
authors.lastname: Moorcroft
keywords: Amazon; CO2 fertilization; biomass; climate change; deforestation; fire; land use; terrestrial biosphere model; water stress