title: Comparative assessment of prognostic value for revised-Mayo risk model and Child-Pugh score in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to compare the utility of the revised Mayo risk model (rMRM) and Child-Pugh scores (CPSs) for predicting the prognosis of disease in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC).
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients were divided into 2 groups: Group I (37 patients; alive and not requiring liver transplantation) and Group II (8 patients; deceased or requiring liver transplantation). rMRM suggests the possible survival percentage over a 4-year period. Thus, rMRM scores and CPSs on the first visit were calculated from the data at the time of diagnosis for patients diagnosed with PSC <4 years ago. rMRM scores and CPSs of patients with >4 years of follow-up were calculated using data from the visit 4 years prior to their last follow-up.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Bivariate analyses showed that need for liver transplantation/mortality was correlated with either first visit CPS (r=0.481, p=0.001) or rMRM (r=0.452, p=0.002). Analysis of the area under the curve showed that both models performed similarly in terms of predicting the need for liver transplantation/mortality (rMRM: 0.780; CPS: 0.762; p=0.8). There was a significant difference in Kaplan-Meier survival rates between Group I and Group II for both risk models (rMRM: p<0.001; CPS: p<0.001) when the decisive event was death or need for liver transplantation.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Both rMRM and CPSs are useful in risk assessment of patients with PSC. The ability to predict prognosis is similar for both risk models.
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Yüksek İhtisas Education and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey. droztaserkin@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Erkin
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Öztaş
authors.forename: Diğdem
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Özer Etik
authors.forename: Rahşan Olga
authors.initials: RO
authors.lastname: Metin
authors.forename: İsmail Hakkı
authors.initials: İH
authors.lastname: Kalkan
authors.forename: Erkan
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Parlak
authors.forename: Fatih Oğuz
authors.initials: FO
authors.lastname: Önder
authors.forename: Mehmet
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Arhan
authors.forename: Nurgül
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Şaşmaz
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017668:Age of Onset; D000368:Aged; D019540:Area Under Curve; D015209:Cholangitis, Sclerosing / Q000145:classification* / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D016031:Liver Transplantation; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011379:Prognosis; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D055815:Young Adult