title: Predictors of incidence of clinically significant depressive symptoms in the elderly: 10-year follow-up study of the Bambui cohort study of aging.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We aim to evaluate the incidence rate and predictors of clinically significant depressive symptoms (CSDS) over 10 years of follow-up from a population-based cohort study (the Bambui Cohort Study of Aging).
  
  
  METHODS
  We calculated the predictors of incidence of CSDS over 10 years of follow-up by the Cox proportional regression analysis. Depressive symptoms were evaluated by GHQ-12 and scores of five or higher indicated CSDS.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The annualized incidence rate of clinically significant depressive symptoms was 46 per 1000 person-year. In the multivariate analysis, the main predictors of CSDS were cognitive impairment (HR = 1,69 CI95% [1,20 - 2.37], p = 0.002), diabetes (HR = 1.59 CI95% [1.14 - 2.20], p = 0.006), use of 2 to 4 (HR = 1,95 CI95% [1.21 - 3.15], p = 0.006) and of 5 or more medications in the last 90 days (HR = 2.19 CI95% [1.31 - 3.66], p = 0.003) and higher baseline depressive symptoms (HR = 2.12 CI95% [1.61 - 2.78], p < 0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These results highlight the importance of higher depressive symptoms, cognitive impairment and endocrine-metabolic disorders to the development of depressive symptoms in older adults. These findings provide a framework for the development of interventions to prevent the emergence of clinically significant depressive symptoms in the elderly.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Investigation in Clinical Neuroscience, Federal University of Minas Gerais Medical School, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
authors.forename: Kenia Kelly Fiaux
authors.initials: KK
authors.lastname: do Nascimento
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Investigation in Clinical Neuroscience, Federal University of Minas Gerais Medical School, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
authors.forename: Kelly Silva
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Pereira
authors.affiliation: René Rachou Research Center, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
authors.forename: Josélia O A
authors.initials: JO
authors.lastname: Firmo
authors.affiliation: René Rachou Research Center, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.|Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
authors.forename: Maria Fernanda
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Lima-Costa
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Investigation in Clinical Neuroscience, Federal University of Minas Gerais Medical School, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.|Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.|Department of Mental Health, Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
authors.forename: Breno S
authors.initials: BS
authors.lastname: Diniz
authors.affiliation: René Rachou Research Center, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
authors.forename: Erico
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Castro-Costa
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging / Q000523:psychology*; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D003072:Cognition Disorders / Q000150:complications; D003866:Depressive Disorder / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D048909:Diabetes Complications / Q000209:etiology; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors
keywords: cohort studies; incidence; late-life depressive symptoms; risk factors