title: Determinants of virtual water flows in the Mediterranean.
abstract: The aim of the paper is to investigate the main determinants of the bilateral virtual water (water used in the production of a commodity or service) flows associated with international trade in agricultural goods across the Mediterranean basin. We consider the bilateral gross flows of virtual water in the area and study what export-specific and import-specific factors are significantly associated with virtual water flows. We follow a sequential approach. Through a gravity model of trade, we obtain a "refined" version of the variable we aim to explain, one that is free of the amount of flows due to pair-specific factors affecting bilateral trade flows and that fully reflects the impact of country-specific determinants of virtual water trade. A number of country-specific potential explanatory variables, ranging from water endowments to trade barriers, from per capita GDP to irrigation prices, is presented and tested. To identify the variables that help to explain the bilateral flows of virtual water, we adopt a model selection procedure based on model averaging. Our findings confirm one of the main controversial results in the literature: larger water endowments do not necessarily lead to a larger 'export' of virtual water, as one could expect. We also find some evidence that higher water irrigation prices reduce (increase) virtual water 'exports' ('imports').
authors.affiliation: University of Trento, School of International Studies, Italy; University of Trento, Department of Economics and Management, Italy. Electronic address: andrea.fracasso@unitn.it.
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Fracasso
authors.affiliation: University of Trento, School of International Studies, Italy; Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy - IEFE, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy. Electronic address: martina.sartori@lett.unitn.it.
authors.forename: Martina
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sartori
authors.affiliation: University of Trento, School of International Studies, Italy; University of Trento, Department of Economics and Management, Italy; Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques - DRIC, France. Electronic address: stefano.schiavo@unitn.it.
authors.forename: Stefano
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Schiavo
keywords: Bayesian model averaging; Mediterranean countries; Virtual water trade; Weighted average least square