title: p-values should not be used for evaluating the strength of DNA evidence.
abstract: Recently, p-values have been suggested to explain the strength of a likelihood ratio that evaluates DNA evidence. It has been argued that likelihood ratios would be difficult to explain in court and that p-values would offer an alternative that is easily explained. In this article, we argue that p-values should not be used in this context. p-Values do not directly relate to the strength of the evidence. The likelihood ratio measures the strength of the evidence, while the p-value measures how rare it is to find evidence that is equally strong or stronger, which is something fundamentally different. In addition, a p-value is not always unambiguous. To illustrate our arguments, we present several examples from forensic genetics.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, VU University, De Boelelaan 1081a, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Electronic address: m.v.kruijver@vu.nl.
authors.forename: Maarten
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kruijver
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, VU University, De Boelelaan 1081a, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Electronic address: r.w.j.meester@vu.nl.
authors.forename: Ronald
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Meester
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, VU University, De Boelelaan 1081a, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Netherlands Forensic Institute, P.O. Box 24044, 2490 AA The Hague, The Netherlands. Electronic address: k.slooten@nfi.minvenj.nl.
authors.forename: Klaas
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Slooten
mesh_terms: D004247:DNA / Q000235:genetics*; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions
chemical_list: D004247:DNA
keywords: Kinship; Likelihood ratios; Mixtures; Weight of evidence; p-Values