title: The Orinoco megadelta as a conservation target in the face of the ongoing and future sea level rise.
abstract: Currently, risk assessments related to rising sea levels and the adoption of defensive or adaptive measures to counter these sea level increases are underway for densely populated deltas where economic losses might be important, especially in the developed world. However, many underpopulated deltas harbouring high biological and cultural diversity are also at risk but will most likely continue to be ignored as conservation targets. In this study, we explore the potential effects of erosion, inundation and salinisation on one of the world's comparatively underpopulated megadeltas, the Orinoco Delta. With a 1 m sea level rise expected to occur by 2100, several models predict a moderate erosion of the delta's shorelines, migration or loss of mangroves, general inundation of the delta with an accompanying submersion of wetlands, and an increase in the distance to which sea water intrudes into streams, resulting in harm to the freshwater biota and resources. The Warao people are the indigenous inhabitants of the Orinoco Delta and currently are subject to various socioeconomic stressors. Changes due to sea level rise will occur extremely rapidly and cause abrupt shifts in the Warao's traditional environments and resources, resulting in migrations and abandonment of their ancestral territories. However, evidence indicates that deltaic aggradation/accretion processes at the Orinoco delta due to allochthonous sediment input and vegetation growth could be elevating the surface of the land, keeping pace with the local sea level rise. Other underpopulated and large deltas of the world also may risk immeasurable biodiversity and cultural losses and should not be forgotten as important conservation targets.
authors.affiliation: Dep. Ecology, Fac. Biology, Univ. of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 643, 08028 Barcelona, Spain; Laboratory of Paleobiology, Institut Català de Paleontologia Miquel Crusafont (ICP), E-08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193 Barcelona, Spain. Electronic address: tvegas@ub.edu.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Vegas-Vilarrúbia
authors.affiliation: Dep. Ecology, Fac. Biology, Univ. of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 643, 08028 Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Hernández
authors.affiliation: Botanic Institute of Barcelona (IBB-CSIC), Pg. del Migdia s/n, 08038 Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Valentí
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Rull
authors.affiliation: Wealth and Asset Management, Accenture, Av. Diagonal, 08028 Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Elisa
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Rull Vegas
keywords: Biodiversity; Climate change; Coastal flooding; Global warming; Hydrochemistry; Indigenous cultures; Large deltas; Neotropic; Wetland