Prognostic factors, morbidity and mortality in pancreatic trauma: a critical appraisal of 432 consecutive patients treated at a Level 1 Trauma Centre.
BACKGROUND
This large retrospective observational cohort study evaluated prognostic factors, 30-day morbidity and mortality and complications related to the pancreas in patients who had sustained pancreatic injuries.


METHODS
The records of 432 consecutive patients treated for pancreatic injuries at an urban Level 1 Trauma Centre in Cape Town between January 1982 and December 2012 were reviewed. Primary endpoints were postoperative morbidity and death. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess significant predictors of morbidity and mortality.


RESULTS
Overall mortality in 432 patients [394 men, median age 26, median RTS 7.8] was 15.7% and morbidity 66%. Bivariate logistic regression analysis showed that nine factors, age, RTS, presence of shock, need for a transfusion, volume of blood transfused, damage control surgery, AAST grade of pancreatic injury, an associated vascular injury and a repeat laparotomy were significant predictors of morbidity. In the final multivariate logistic regression analysis model however only two variables, AAST grade of pancreatic injury and a repeat laparotomy were significant predictors of morbidity. When factors associated with mortality were considered, logistic regression analysis found that 11 variables, age, RTS, the presence of shock, patients who required a major blood transfusion, the median number of units transfused, the need for a damage control laparotomy, AAST grade 3, 4, 5 pancreatic injuries, associated vascular injuries, the number of associated injuries, postoperative complications and days in ICU were significant. However in the final stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis model only five variables, age, shock, median number of units transfused and the presence of associated complications were significant factors associated with mortality.


CONCLUSIONS
Morbidity was 64% and AAST grade of pancreatic injury and a repeat laparotomy were significant predictors of morbidity. Overall mortality was 15.7%. Most deaths were due to associated injuries and were unrelated to the pancreatic injury. Five variables, age, shock, median number of units transfused and the presence of associated complications were significant factors associated with mortality. These data indicate that the magnitude of blood loss and haemorrhagic shock are primary determinants for survival and that urgent reversal of shock and control of bleeding are essential to reduce mortality in this cohort of patients.
Department of Surgery, University of Cape Town, Health Sciences Faculty, Groote Schuur Hospital, Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa; Surgical Gastroenterology Unit, Groote Schuur Hospital, Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa. Electronic address: jej.krige@uct.ac.za.
J E J
JE
Krige
Department of Surgery, University of Cape Town, Health Sciences Faculty, Groote Schuur Hospital, Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa; Surgical Gastroenterology Unit, Groote Schuur Hospital, Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa.
U K
UK
Kotze
Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Health Sciences Faculty, Groote Schuur Hospital, Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa.
M
M
Setshedi
Department of Surgery, University of Cape Town, Health Sciences Faculty, Groote Schuur Hospital, Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa; Trauma Centre, Groote Schuur Hospital, Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa.
A J
AJ
Nicol
Department of Surgery, University of Cape Town, Health Sciences Faculty, Groote Schuur Hospital, Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa; Trauma Centre, Groote Schuur Hospital, Observatory, Cape Town, South Africa.
P H
PH
Navsaria
D000007:Abdominal Injuries / Q000473:pathology*; D006801:Humans; D010179:Pancreas / Q000293:injuries*; D014949:Wounds, Nonpenetrating / Q000473:pathology*; D014950:Wounds, Penetrating / Q000473:pathology*
Injury; Morbidity; Mortality; Pancreas; Prognostic factors