Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker.
A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play.
Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Rogier J D
RJ
Potter van Loon
Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Martijn J
MJ
van den Assem
Nottingham School of Economics, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom.
Dennie
D
van Dolder
D005715:Gambling; D006801:Humans; D020407:Internet; D011336:Probability; D012044:Regression Analysis