Age, period and cohort effects on time trends in alcohol consumption in the Swedish adult population 1979-2011.
OBJECTIVE
In Sweden, alcohol abstention has increased over the last 20 years and consumption has recently decreased after a peak in 2004. To understand the dynamics of these trends the present study aims at estimating age, period and cohort (APC) effects on trends in alcohol use prevalence as well as overall and beverage-specific volume of drinking over the last three decades.


METHODS
APC analysis of seven cross-sectional surveys from 1979 to 2011 was conducted using cross-classified random effects models (CCREMs) by gender. The nationally representative samples comprised 77,598 respondents aged 16-80 years. Outcome measures were 30-day prevalence of alcohol use and overall as well as beverage-specific alcohol volume.


RESULTS
Trends in prevalence, overall and beverage-specific volume were significantly affected by APC. The period effects of prevalence and overall volume show a small decline after an increase up to the year 2005. Mean beer and wine volume levelled off after a peak in 2005 and volume of spirits drinking decreased constantly. Predicted alcohol prevalence rates in male cohorts (1945-1985) remained generally at the same level, while they declined in post-World War II female generations. Results point to high overall and beverage-specific consumption among cohorts born in the 1940s, 1950s and 1980s.


CONCLUSIONS
High consuming cohorts of the 1940-1950s were key in rising consumption up to 2005. Progression through the life course of these cohorts, a decrease in prevalence and drinking volume in successive cohorts seem to have contributed to the recent downward trend in alcohol use in Sweden.
Centre for Social Research on Alcohol and Drugs, SoRAD, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-106 91, Sweden IFT Institut für Therapieforschung, München, Germany kraus@ift.de.
Ludwig
L
Kraus
Centre for Social Research on Alcohol and Drugs, SoRAD, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-106 91, Sweden.
Mimmi Eriksson
ME
Tinghög
Centre for Social Research on Alcohol and Drugs, SoRAD, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-106 91, Sweden.
Annette
A
Lindell
IFT Institut für Therapieforschung, München, Germany.
Alexander
A
Pabst
IFT Institut für Therapieforschung, München, Germany.
Daniela
D
Piontek
Centre for Social Research on Alcohol and Drugs, SoRAD, Stockholm University, Stockholm SE-106 91, Sweden Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia Centre for Alcohol Policy Research, Turning Point Alcohol and Drug Centre, Fitzroy, VIC, Australia.
Robin
R
Room
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D064829:Alcohol Abstinence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000434:Alcoholic Beverages; D001515:Beer / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015988:Cohort Effect; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D012737:Sex Factors; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology; D014920:Wine / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D055815:Young Adult