The many projected futures of dengue.
Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
Jane P
JP
Messina
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
Oliver J
OJ
Brady
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
David M
DM
Pigott
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
Nick
N
Golding
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
Moritz U G
MU
Kraemer
1] Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, California 95616, USA. [2] Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892, USA.
Thomas W
TW
Scott
Environmental Research Group Oxford, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
G R William
GR
Wint
1] Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK. [2] Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892, USA.
David L
DL
Smith
1] Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK. [2] Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892, USA.
Simon I
SI
Hay
D000818:Animals; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical