Response of global particulate-matter-related mortality to changes in local precursor emissions.
Recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) assessments estimated that outdoor fine-particulate matter (PM2.5) is a causal factor in over 5% of global premature deaths. PM2.5 is produced by a variety of direct and indirect, natural and anthropogenic processes that complicate PM2.5 management. This study develops a proof-of-concept method to quantify the effects on global premature mortality of changes to PM2.5 precursor emissions. Using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we calculated sensitivities of global PM2.5-related premature mortality to emissions of precursor gases (SO2, NOx, NH3) and carbonaceous aerosols. We used a satellite-derived ground-level PM2.5 data set at approximately 10 × 10 km(2) resolution to better align the exposure with population density. We used exposure-response functions from the GBD project to relate mortality to exposure in the adjoint calculation. The response of global mortality to changes in local anthropogenic emissions varied spatially by several orders of magnitude. The largest reductions in mortality for a 1 kg km(-2) yr(-1) decrease in emissions were for ammonia and carbonaceous aerosols in Eastern Europe. The greatest reductions in mortality for a 10% decrease in emissions were found for secondary inorganic sources in East Asia. In general, a 10% decrease in SO2 emissions was the most effective source to control, but regional exceptions were found.
†Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada.
Colin J
CJ
Lee
†Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada.|‡Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.
Randall V
RV
Martin
§University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, United States.
Daven K
DK
Henze
∥School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4, Canada.
Michael
M
Brauer
⊥Health Effects Institute, Boston, Massachusetts 02110-1817, United States.
Aaron
A
Cohen
†Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada.
Aaron van
Av
Donkelaar
D000336:Aerosols / Q000032:analysis; D000641:Ammonia / Q000032:analysis; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects; D005061:Europe, Eastern; D005202:Asia, Eastern; D005740:Gases; D006801:Humans; D008956:Models, Chemical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D009589:Nitrogen Oxides / Q000032:analysis; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000032:analysis*; D011156:Population Density; D013431:Sulfates / Q000032:analysis
D000336:Aerosols; D005740:Gases; D009589:Nitrogen Oxides; D052638:Particulate Matter; D013431:Sulfates; D000641:Ammonia