Future premature mortality due to O3, secondary inorganic aerosols and primary PM in Europe--sensitivity to changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, population and building stock.
Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000-2009, 2050-2059 and 2080-2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box. 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark. cag@envs.au.dk.
Camilla
C
Geels
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping SE-60176, Sweden. camilla.andersson@smhi.se.
Camilla
C
Andersson
Department of Health Protection, National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), 70701 Kuopio, Finland. otto.hanninen@thl.fi.
Otto
O
Hänninen
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box. 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark. asla@envs.au.dk.
Anne Sofie
AS
Lansø
Department of Air Pollution and Noise, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, 4404 Nydalen, 0403 Oslo, Norway. per.schwarze@fhi.no.
Per E
PE
Schwarze
National Pollen and Aerobiological Research Unit, Institute of Science and the Environment, University of Worcester, Worcester WR2 6AJ, UK. c.skjoth@worc.ac.uk.
Carsten Ambelas
CA
Skjøth
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, P.O. Box. 358, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark. jbr@envs.au.dk.
Jørgen
J
Brandt
D000336:Aerosols / Q000009:adverse effects*; D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D003252:Construction Materials / Q000009:adverse effects*; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005060:Europe; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D061213:Mortality, Premature; D010126:Ozone / Q000009:adverse effects*; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000009:adverse effects*
D000336:Aerosols; D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter; D010126:Ozone