title: Projection of osteoporosis-related fractures and costs in China: 2010-2050.
abstract: A state-transition microsimulation model was used to project the substantial economic burden to the Chinese healthcare system of osteoporosis-related fractures. Annual number and costs of osteoporosis-related fractures were estimated to double by 2035 and will increase to 5.99 (95 % CI 5.44, 6.55) million fractures costing $25.43 (95 % CI 23.92, 26.95) billion by 2050. Consequently, cost-effective intervention policies must urgently be identified in an attempt to minimize the impact of fractures.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  The aim of the study was to project the osteoporosis-related fractures and costs for the Chinese population aged ≥50 years from 2010 to 2050.
  
  
  METHODS
  A state-transition microsimulation model was used to simulate the annual incident fractures and costs. The simulation was performed with a 1-year cycle length and from the Chinese healthcare system perspective. Incident fractures and annual costs were estimated from 100 unique patient populations for year 2010, by multiplying the age- and sex-specific annual fracture risks and costs of fracture by the corresponding population totals in each of the 100 categories. Projections for 2011-2050 were performed by multiplying the 2010 risks and costs of fracture by the respective annual population estimates. Costs were presented in 2013 US dollars.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Approximately 2.33 (95 % CI 2.08, 2.58) million osteoporotic fractures were estimated to occur in 2010, costing $9.45 (95 % CI 8.78, 10.11) billion. Females sustained approximately three times more fractures than males, accounting for 76 % of the total costs from 1.85 (95 % CI 1.68, 2.01) million fractures. The annual number and costs of osteoporosis-related fractures were estimated to double by 2035 and will increase to 5.99 (95 % CI 5.44, 6.55) million fractures costing $25.43 (95 % CI 23.92, 26.95) billion by 2050.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our study demonstrated that osteoporosis-related fractures cause a substantial economic burden which will markedly increase over the coming decades. Consequently, healthcare resource planning must consider these increasing costs, and cost-effective screening and intervention policies must urgently be identified in an attempt to minimize the impact of fractures on the health of the burgeoning population as well as the healthcare budget.
authors.affiliation: Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, 7000, Australia.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Si
authors.forename: T M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Winzenberg
authors.forename: Q
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Palmer
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008875:Middle Aged; D017059:Models, Econometric; D010024:Osteoporosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D058866:Osteoporotic Fractures / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D017678:Sex Distribution