title: Landscape risk factors for Lyme disease in the eastern broadleaf forest province of the Hudson River valley and the effect of explanatory data classification resolution.
abstract: This study assessed how landcover classification affects associations between landscape characteristics and Lyme disease rate. Landscape variables were derived from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), including native classes (e.g., deciduous forest, developed low intensity) and aggregate classes (e.g., forest, developed). Percent of each landcover type, median income, and centroid coordinates were calculated by census tract. Regression results from individual and aggregate variable models were compared with the dispersion parameter-based R(2) (Rα(2)) and AIC. The maximum Rα(2) was 0.82 and 0.83 for the best aggregate and individual model, respectively. The AICs for the best models differed by less than 0.5%. The aggregate model variables included forest, developed, agriculture, agriculture-squared, y-coordinate, y-coordinate-squared, income and income-squared. The individual model variables included deciduous forest, deciduous forest-squared, developed low intensity, pasture, y-coordinate, y-coordinate-squared, income, and income-squared. Results indicate that regional landscape models for Lyme disease rate are robust to NLCD landcover classification resolution.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, United States.
authors.forename: Kyle P
authors.initials: KP
authors.lastname: Messier
authors.affiliation: National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States.
authors.forename: Laura E
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Jackson
authors.affiliation: Bureau of Communicable Disease Control, New York State Department of Health, Albany, NY, United States.
authors.forename: Jennifer L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: White
authors.affiliation: National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States. Electronic address: Hilborn.e@epa.gov.
authors.forename: Elizabeth D
authors.initials: ED
authors.lastname: Hilborn
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D000818:Animals; D025065:Borrelia burgdorferi / Q000302:isolation & purification; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D065928:Forests; D006801:Humans; D018884:Ixodes / Q000382:microbiology; D008193:Lyme Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009518:New York / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D045483:Rivers; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric
keywords: Land use; Landcover; Landscape design; Lyme disease; Negative binomial regression; New York