title: Predicting risk for childhood asthma by pre-pregnancy, perinatal, and postnatal factors.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Symptoms of atopic disease start early in human life. Predicting risk for childhood asthma by early-life exposure would contribute to disease prevention. A birth cohort study was conducted to investigate early-life risk factors for childhood asthma and to develop a predictive model for the development of asthma.
  
  
  METHODS
  National representative samples of newborn babies were obtained by multistage stratified systematic sampling from the 2005 Taiwan Birth Registry. Information on potential risk factors and children's health was collected by home interview when babies were 6 months old and 5 yr old, respectively. Backward stepwise regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors of childhood asthma for predictive models that were used to calculate the probability of childhood asthma.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 19,192 children completed the study satisfactorily. Physician-diagnosed asthma was reported in 6.6% of 5-yr-old children. Pre-pregnancy factors (parental atopy and socioeconomic status), perinatal factors (place of residence, exposure to indoor mold and painting/renovations during pregnancy), and postnatal factors (maternal postpartum depression and the presence of atopic dermatitis before 6 months of age) were chosen for the predictive models, and the highest predicted probability of asthma in 5-yr-old children was 68.1% in boys and 78.1% in girls; the lowest probability in boys and girls was 4.1% and 3.2%, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This investigation provides a technique for predicting risk of childhood asthma that can be used to developing a preventive strategy against asthma.
authors.affiliation: Division of Environmental Health and Occupational Medicine, National Health Research Institutes, Miaoli, Taiwan.|Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Hui-Ju
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Wen
authors.affiliation: Institute of Health Policy and Management, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Tung-Liang
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Chiang
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Shio-Jean
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Yue Leon
authors.initials: YL
authors.lastname: Guo
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001249:Asthma / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000517:prevention & control; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D018811:Maternal Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects; D018743:Perinatal Care; D011181:Postnatal Care; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011247:Pregnancy; D011295:Prenatal Care; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors
keywords: asthma; birth cohort; childhood; prediction