title: How environmental conditions impact mosquito ecology and Japanese encephalitis: an eco-epidemiological approach.
abstract: Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of the major vector-borne diseases in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific region, posing a threat to human health. In rural and suburban areas, traditional rice farming and intensive pig breeding provide an ideal environment for both mosquito development and the transmission of JEV among human beings. Combining surveillance data for mosquito vectors, human JE cases, and environmental conditions in Changsha, China, 2004-2009, generalized threshold models were constructed to project the mosquito and JE dynamics. Temperature and rainfall were found to be closely associated with mosquito density at 1, and 4month lag, respectively. The two thresholds, maximum temperature of 22-23°C for mosquito development and minimum temperature of 25-26°C for JEV transmission, play key roles in the ecology of JEV. The model predicts that, in the upper regime, a 1g/m(3) increase in absolute humidity would on average increase human cases by 68-84%. A shift in mosquito species composition in 2007 was observed, and possibly caused by a drought. Effective predictive models could be used in risk management to provide early warnings for potential JE transmission.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Huai-Yu
authors.initials: HY
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.affiliation: Discipline of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.
authors.forename: Peng
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Bi
authors.affiliation: UMMISCO, UMI 209 IRD-UPMC, 93142 Bondy, France; Eco-Evolutionary Mathematic, IBENS UMR 8197, ENS, 75230 Paris Cedex 05, France.
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cazelles
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Sen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Shan-Qian
authors.initials: SQ
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Yao
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Pei
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Xiao-Xu
authors.initials: XX
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control (SKLID), Department of Viral Encephalitis, Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic of China; Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Hangzhou, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Shi-Hong
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Fu
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland 4059, Australia.
authors.forename: Shi-Lu
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Tong
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control (SKLID), Department of Viral Encephalitis, Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic of China; Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Hangzhou, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: rainoffall@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Huan-Yu
authors.initials: HY
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, People's Republic of China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, People's Republic of China; Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA. Electronic address: bingxu@tsinghua.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Bing
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Xu
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D002980:Climate; D009033:Culicidae / Q000502:physiology*; D004199:Disease Vectors; D017753:Ecosystem; D004672:Encephalitis, Japanese / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D011156:Population Density; D012307:Risk Factors; D013696:Temperature
keywords: China; Climate; Environmental thresholds; Generalized threshold models; Japanese encephalitis; Mosquito vector