title: A competing risk analysis for hospital length of stay in patients with burns.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Current outcome predictors for illness and injury are measured at a single time point-admission. However, patient prognosis often changes during hospitalization, limiting the usefulness of those predictions. Accurate depiction of the dynamic interaction between competing events during hospitalization may enable real-time outcome assessment.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To determine how the effects of burn outcome predictors (ie, age, total body surface area burn, and inhalation injury) and the outcomes of interest (ie, mortality and length of stay) vary as a function of time throughout hospitalization.
  
  
  METHODS
  In this retrospective study, we used the American Burn Association's National Burn Repository, containing outcomes and patient and injury characteristics, to identify 95 579 patients admitted with an acute burn injury to 80 tertiary American Burn Association burn centers from 2000 through 2009. We applied competing risk statistical methods to analyze patient outcomes.
  
  
  METHODS
  We estimated the cause-specific hazard rates for death and discharge to assess how the instantaneous risk of these events changed across time. We further evaluated the varying effects of patient age, total body surface area burn, and inhalation injury on the probability of discharge and death across time.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Maximum length of stay among patients who died was 270 days and 731 days among those discharged. Total body surface area, age, and inhalation injury had significant effects on the subdistribution hazard for discharge (P < .001); these effects varied across time (P < .002). Burn size (coefficient -0.046) determined early outcomes, while age (coefficient -0.034) determined outcomes later in the hospitalization. Inhalation injury (coefficient -0.622) played a variable role in survival and hospital length of stay.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Real-time measurement of dynamic interrelationships among burn outcome predictors using competing risk analysis demonstrated that the key factors influencing outcomes differed throughout hospitalization. Further application of this analytic technique to other injury or illness types may improve assessment of outcomes.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis Medical Center, Sacramento.
authors.forename: Sandra L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Taylor
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Shriners Hospitals for Children-Northern California, Sacramento3Burn Department, Shriners Hospitals for Children-Northern California, Sacramento.
authors.forename: Soman
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sen
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Shriners Hospitals for Children-Northern California, Sacramento3Burn Department, Shriners Hospitals for Children-Northern California, Sacramento.
authors.forename: David G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Greenhalgh
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Shriners Hospitals for Children-Northern California, Sacramento.
authors.forename: MaryBeth
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lawless
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Shriners Hospitals for Children-Northern California, Sacramento.
authors.forename: Terese
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Curri
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis Medical Center, Sacramento2Department of Surgery, Shriners Hospitals for Children-Northern California, Sacramento3Burn Department, Shriners Hospitals for Children-Northern California, Sa.
authors.forename: Tina L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Palmieri
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002056:Burns / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000628:therapy; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007902:Length of Stay / Q000639:trends; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult