title: [Risk factors for mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To identify risk factors of mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Primary care setting in Lleida, Spain.
  
  
  METHODS
  2.501 patients older than 40 years with at least a spirometry in the 24 months prior to the beginning of the study were followed for 3 years.
  
  
  METHODS
  The dependent variable was the overall mortality in the period 11/01/2010-10/31/2013; and the independents: spirometric parameters, severity (GOLD) and clinical variables. Their association with mortality was analyzed by calculating the adjusted odds ratio using a non-conditional logistic regression model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The average age of 2.501 patients at the beginning of the study was 68.4 years (SD=11.6). 75.0% were males. 50.8% had a mild severity COPD, followed by moderate (35.3%), severe (9.4%) and very severe (4.4%). Mortality rate for the all period was 12.55%. The variables of the predictive model were: age, male sex, previous exacerbations, number of visits to primary care, comorbidity, smoking, severity of COPD (GOLD) and not receiving influenza vaccination, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.76.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This model, easy and quick to apply, would identify those patients at increased risk of mortality and who could benefit from preventive strategies to improve their survival.
authors.affiliation: Institut de Recerca Biomèdica (IRB) Lleida, Lleida, España; Departament de Salut, Agència de Salut Pública de Catalunya, Lleida, España; CAP Mollerussa, Institut Català de la Salut (ICS), Mollerussa, España. Electronic address: jmontser@alumni.unav.es.
authors.forename: Josep
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Montserrat-Capdevila
authors.affiliation: Institut de Recerca Biomèdica (IRB) Lleida, Lleida, España; Departament de Salut, Agència de Salut Pública de Catalunya, Lleida, España; Facultat de Medicina, Universitat de Lleida, Lleida, España.
authors.forename: Pere
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Godoy
authors.affiliation: Unitat de Suport a la Recerca Lleida, Lleida, España; Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària (IDIAP) Jordi Gol, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, España; Unitat d'Epidemiologia del Servei de Cardiologia, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, España.
authors.forename: Josep Ramon
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Marsal
authors.affiliation: Institut de Recerca Biomèdica (IRB) Lleida, Lleida, España; Hospital Universitari Arnau de Vilanova, Lleida, España; Unitat d'Epidemiologia del Servei de Cardiologia, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, España; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Madrid, España.
authors.forename: Ferran
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Barbé-Illa
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000401:mortality*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D013147:Spirometry
keywords: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; Enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica; Factores de Riesgo; Mortalidad; Mortality; Risk Factors