title: Mechanistic understanding of human-wildlife conflict through a novel application of dynamic occupancy models.
abstract: Crop and livestock depredation by wildlife is a primary driver of human-wildlife conflict, a problem that threatens the coexistence of people and wildlife globally. Understanding mechanisms that underlie depredation patterns holds the key to mitigating conflicts across time and space. However, most studies do not consider imperfect detection and reporting of conflicts, which may lead to incorrect inference regarding its spatiotemporal drivers. We applied dynamic occupancy models to elephant crop depredation data from India between 2005 and 2011 to estimate crop depredation occurrence and model its underlying dynamics as a function of spatiotemporal covariates while accounting for imperfect detection of conflicts. The probability of detecting conflicts was consistently <1.0 and was negatively influenced by distance to roads and elevation gradient, averaging 0.08-0.56 across primary periods (distinct agricultural seasons within each year). The probability of crop depredation occurrence ranged from 0.29 (SE 0.09) to 0.96 (SE 0.04). The probability that sites raided by elephants in primary period t would not be raided in primary period t + 1 varied with elevation gradient in different seasons and was influenced negatively by mean rainfall and village density and positively by distance to forests. Negative effects of rainfall variation and distance to forests best explained variation in the probability that sites not raided by elephants in primary period t would be raided in primary period t + 1. With our novel application of occupancy models, we teased apart the spatiotemporal drivers of conflicts from factors that influence how they are observed, thereby allowing more reliable inference on mechanisms underlying observed conflict patterns. We found that factors associated with increased crop accessibility and availability (e.g., distance to forests and rainfall patterns) were key drivers of elephant crop depredation dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for rigorous prediction of future conflicts, a critical requirement for effective conflict management in the context of increasing human-wildlife interactions.
authors.affiliation: School of Natural Resources and Environment, 103 Black Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, U.S.A.|Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, 110 Newins-Ziegler Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, U.S.A.|Wildlife Conservation Society, India Program, 1669 31st Cross 16th Main, Banashankari 2nd Stage, Bengaluru, 560070, India.
authors.forename: Varun R
authors.initials: VR
authors.lastname: Goswami
authors.affiliation: Samrakshan Trust, Bolsalgre, Baghmara, Meghalaya, 794102, India.
authors.forename: Kamal
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Medhi
authors.affiliation: United States Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Suite 4039, 12100 Beech Forest Road, Laurel, MD, 20708, U.S.A.
authors.forename: James D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Nichols
authors.affiliation: School of Natural Resources and Environment, 103 Black Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, U.S.A.|Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, 110 Newins-Ziegler Hall, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Madan K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Oli
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D000818:Animals; D003220:Conflict, Psychological; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D004606:Elephants / Q000502:physiology*; D005247:Feeding Behavior; D006801:Humans; D007194:India; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011336:Probability
keywords: ciencia ciudadana; citizen science; crop and livestock depredation; depredación de cultivos y ganado; detección de probabilidad; detection probability; elefantes; elephants; human-dominated landscapes; modelado predictivo; monitoreo; monitoring; predictive modeling; terrenos dominados por humanos