title: Opportunities and costs for preventing vertebrate extinctions.
abstract: Despite an increase in policy and management responses to the global biodiversity crisis, implementation of the 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets still shows insufficient progress [1]. These targets, strategic goals defined by the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), address major causes of biodiversity loss in part by establishing protected areas (Target 11) and preventing species extinctions (Target 12). To achieve this, increased interventions will be required for a large number of sites and species. The Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) [2], a consortium of conservation-oriented organisations that aims to protect Critically Endangered and Endangered species restricted to single sites, has identified 920 species of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, conifers and reef-building corals in 588 'trigger' sites [3]. These are arguably the most irreplaceable category of important biodiversity conservation sites. Protected area coverage of AZE sites is a key indicator of progress towards Target 11 [1]. Moreover, effective conservation of AZE sites is essential to achieve Target 12, as the loss of any of these sites would certainly result in the global extinction of at least one species [2]. However, averting human-induced species extinctions within AZE sites requires enhanced planning tools to increase the chances of success [3]. Here, we assess the potential for ensuring the long-term conservation of AZE vertebrate species (157 mammals, 165 birds, 17 reptiles and 502 amphibians) by calculating a conservation opportunity index (COI) for each species. The COI encompasses a set of measurable indicators that quantify the possibility of achieving successful conservation of a species in its natural habitat (COIh) and by establishing insurance populations in zoos (COIc).
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense M, Denmark; Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense M, Denmark; Centre for Research and Conservation, Royal Zoological Society of Antwerp, 2018 Antwerp, Belgium. Electronic address: jfa949@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Dalia A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Conde
authors.affiliation: Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense M, Denmark; Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Southern Denmark, 5230 Odense M, Denmark.
authors.forename: Fernando
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Colchero
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.
authors.forename: Burak
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Güneralp
authors.affiliation: World Association of Zoos and Aquariums (WAZA), IUCN Conservation Centre, 1196 Gland, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Markus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gusset
authors.affiliation: American Bird Conservancy (ABC), The Plains, VA 20198, USA.
authors.forename: Ben
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Skolnik
authors.affiliation: American Bird Conservancy (ABC), The Plains, VA 20198, USA.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Parr
authors.affiliation: IUCN SSC Conservation Breeding Specialist Group (CBSG), Apple Valley, MN 55124, USA.
authors.forename: Onnie
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Byers
authors.affiliation: Amphibian Ark, c/o IUCN SSC Conservation Breeding Specialist Group (CBSG), Apple Valley, MN 55124, USA.
authors.forename: Kevin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Johnson
authors.affiliation: Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust, Les Augrès Manor, Jersey JE3 5BP, UK.
authors.forename: Glyn
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Young
authors.affiliation: International Species Information System (ISIS), Bloomington, MN 55425, USA.
authors.forename: Nate
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Flesness
authors.affiliation: Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, St. Lucia 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Hugh
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Possingham
authors.affiliation: Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust, Les Augrès Manor, Jersey JE3 5BP, UK; ICCS, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK. Electronic address: dalia@biology.sdu.dk.
authors.forename: John E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Fa
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000191:economics; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D017753:Ecosystem; D056727:Endangered Species; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D006801:Humans; D014714:Vertebrates