title: Tactics and strategies for managing Ebola outbreaks and the salience of immunization.
abstract: We present a stochastic transmission chain simulation model for Ebola viral disease (EVD) in West Africa, with the salutary result that the virus may be more controllable than previously suspected. The ongoing tactics to detect cases as rapidly as possible and isolate individuals as safely as practicable is essential to saving lives in the current outbreaks in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Equally important are educational campaigns that reduce contact rates between susceptible and infectious individuals in the community once an outbreak occurs. However, due to the relatively low R 0 of Ebola (around 1.5 to 2.5 next generation cases are produced per current generation case in naïve populations), rapid isolation of infectious individuals proves to be highly efficacious in containing outbreaks in new areas, while vaccination programs, even with low efficacy vaccines, can be decisive in curbing future outbreaks in areas where the Ebola virus is maintained in reservoir populations.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA ; School of Mathematical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X54001, Durban 4000, South Africa.
authors.forename: Wayne M
authors.initials: WM
authors.lastname: Getz
authors.affiliation: Metabiota, Inc., 1 Sutter Street, Suite 600, San Francisco, CA 94104, USA.
authors.forename: Jean-Paul
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Gonzalez
authors.affiliation: Computer Science Department, Oberlin College, Oberlin, OH 44074, USA.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Salter
authors.affiliation: Metabiota, Inc., 24 Main Motor Road, Congo Cross, Freetown, Sierra Leone.
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bangura
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
authors.forename: Colin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Carlson
authors.affiliation: Metabiota Inc., Kenema Government Hospital, Kenema, Sierra Leone.
authors.forename: Moinya
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Coomber
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Dougherty
authors.affiliation: Directorate of Disease Prevention and Control, DPC Ministry of Health and Sanitation, Freetown, Sierra Leone.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kargbo
authors.affiliation: Metabiota, Inc., 1 Sutter Street, Suite 600, San Francisco, CA 94104, USA.
authors.forename: Nathan D
authors.initials: ND
authors.lastname: Wolfe
authors.affiliation: Metabiota Inc., Kenema Government Hospital, Kenema, Sierra Leone ; Sorbonne Université, UPMC, Université de Paris 06, CR7, CIMI-Paris, 75005 Paris, France.
authors.forename: Nadia
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Wauquier
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D046129:Ebola Vaccines / Q000627:therapeutic use; D029043:Ebolavirus; D058872:Epidemics; D016701:Guinea; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000628:therapy* / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs / Q000379:methods*; D007988:Liberia; D008390:Markov Chains; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010356:Patient Isolation; D012807:Sierra Leone; D012984:Software; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014611:Vaccination
chemical_list: D046129:Ebola Vaccines