title: Mathematical models of human african trypanosomiasis epidemiology.
abstract: Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), commonly called sleeping sickness, is caused by Trypanosoma spp. and transmitted by tsetse flies (Glossina spp.). HAT is usually fatal if untreated and transmission occurs in foci across sub-Saharan Africa. Mathematical modelling of HAT began in the 1980s with extensions of the Ross-Macdonald malaria model and has since consisted, with a few exceptions, of similar deterministic compartmental models. These models have captured the main features of HAT epidemiology and provided insight on the effectiveness of the two main control interventions (treatment of humans and tsetse fly control) in eliminating transmission. However, most existing models have overestimated prevalence of infection and ignored transient dynamics. There is a need for properly validated models, evolving with improved data collection, that can provide quantitative predictions to help guide control and elimination strategies for HAT.
authors.affiliation: Mathematics Institute/WIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
authors.forename: Kat S
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Rock
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Chris M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Stone
authors.affiliation: Department of Parasitology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK.
authors.forename: Ian M
authors.initials: IM
authors.lastname: Hastings
authors.affiliation: Mathematics Institute/WIDER, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
authors.forename: Matt J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Keeling
authors.affiliation: Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK; Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
authors.forename: Steve J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Torr
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Nakul
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Chitnis
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007300:Insect Control; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015995:Prevalence; D014353:Trypanosomiasis, African / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission
keywords: Human African trypanosomiasis; Mathematical epidemiology; Mathematical modelling; Sleeping sickness; Tsetse flies