title: Liver cancer mortality characteristics and trends in China from 1991 to 2012.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To investigate the distribution of liver cancer mortality as well as its developing trend from l991 to 2012, forecast the future five-year trend, and provide a basis for the comprehensive prevention and management.
  
  
  METHODS
  Mortality data for liver cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were used to describe characteristics and distribution of liver cancer mortality. Trend surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of liver cancer mortality. Curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were used to predict and forecast future trends.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mortality rate of liver cancer has constantly increased in China since 1991. Rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas, and in males are higher than in females. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the next 5 years. The age-specific mortality of liver cancer increases with age and peaks in the group of 80-84 years old. Geographical analysis showed the liver mortality rate was higher in the southeast provinces, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, and southwest regions like Guangxi Province.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in China has consistently increased from 1991 to 2012, and the upward trend is predicted to continue in the future. Much better prevention and management of liver cancer is needed in high mortality areas (the southwestern and southeastern parts of China) and high mortality age groups (80- to 84-year-olds), especially in rural areas.
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China E-mail : klin@stu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Jia-Ying
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.forename: Ku-Sheng
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.forename: Yang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.forename: Wen-Rui
authors.initials: WR
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.forename: Pei-Ling
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Du
authors.forename: Zhen-Xi
authors.initials: ZX
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Xiao-Ling
authors.initials: XL
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Jia-Yi
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Lin
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012424:Rural Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D055815:Young Adult