title: Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.
abstract: Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands. j.a.p.heesterbeek@uu.nl.
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Heesterbeek
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, UK.
authors.forename: Roy M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Anderson
authors.affiliation: Roskilde University, Roskilde, Denmark.
authors.forename: Viggo
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Andreasen
authors.affiliation: Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
authors.forename: Shweta
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bansal
authors.affiliation: MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK.
authors.forename: Daniela
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: De Angelis
authors.affiliation: WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Dye
authors.affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
authors.forename: Ken T D
authors.initials: KT
authors.lastname: Eames
authors.affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
authors.forename: W John
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Edmunds
authors.affiliation: University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
authors.forename: Simon D W
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Frost
authors.affiliation: Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
authors.forename: Sebastian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Funk
authors.affiliation: School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, UK. School of Tropical Medicine, University of Liverpool, UK.
authors.forename: T Deirdre
authors.initials: TD
authors.lastname: Hollingsworth
authors.affiliation: Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: House
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, UK.
authors.forename: Valerie
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Isham
authors.affiliation: University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
authors.forename: Petra
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Klepac
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
authors.forename: Justin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lessler
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
authors.forename: James O
authors.initials: JO
authors.lastname: Lloyd-Smith
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
authors.forename: C Jessica E
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Metcalf
authors.affiliation: Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK.
authors.forename: Denis
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Mollison
authors.affiliation: Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
authors.forename: Lorenzo
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Pellis
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology-Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, NIH, Bethesda, MD, USA.
authors.forename: Juliet R C
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Pulliam
authors.affiliation: Institute of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Mick G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Roberts
authors.affiliation: Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, NIH, Bethesda, MD, USA.
authors.forename: Cecile
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Viboud
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D060085:Coinfection; D003140:Communicable Disease Control; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D021821:Communicable Diseases, Emerging / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D014943:Global Health; D006291:Health Policy; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D011634:Public Health; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission