title: A Bayesian network for assessing the collision induced risk of an oil accident in the Gulf of Finland.
abstract: The growth of maritime oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland (GoF), North-Eastern Baltic Sea, increases environmental risks by increasing the probability of oil accidents. By integrating the work of a multidisciplinary research team and information from several sources, we have developed a probabilistic risk assessment application that considers the likely future development of maritime traffic and oil transportation in the area and the resulting risk of environmental pollution. This metamodel is used to compare the effects of two preventative management actions on the tanker collision probabilities and the consequent risk. The resulting risk is evaluated from four different perspectives. Bayesian networks enable large amounts of information about causalities to be integrated and utilized in probabilistic inference. Compared with the baseline period of 2007-2008, the worst-case scenario is that the risk level increases 4-fold by the year 2015. The management measures are evaluated and found to decrease the risk by 4-13%, but the utility gained by their joint implementation would be less than the sum of their independent effects. In addition to the results concerning the varying risk levels, the application provides interesting information about the relationships between the different elements of the system.
authors.affiliation: †Department of Environmental Sciences, Fisheries and Environmental Management Group, Kotka Maritime Research Center, University of Helsinki, Keskuskatu 10, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland.
authors.forename: Annukka
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lehikoinen
authors.affiliation: ‡School of Engineering, Department of Applied Mechanics, Kotka Maritime Research Centre, Aalto University, Keskuskatu 10, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland.
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hänninen
authors.affiliation: §Centre for Maritime Studies, Kotka Maritime Research Centre, University of Turku, Keskuskatu 10, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland.
authors.forename: Jenni
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Storgård
authors.affiliation: ∥Department of Environmental Sciences, Fisheries and Environmental Management Group, University of Helsinki , P.O. Box 65, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland.
authors.forename: Emilia
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Luoma
authors.affiliation: ∥Department of Environmental Sciences, Fisheries and Environmental Management Group, University of Helsinki , P.O. Box 65, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland.
authors.forename: Samu
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Mäntyniemi
authors.affiliation: ∥Department of Environmental Sciences, Fisheries and Environmental Management Group, University of Helsinki , P.O. Box 65, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland.
authors.forename: Sakari
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kuikka
mesh_terms: D000059:Accidents / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004957:Estonia; D005387:Finland; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D000066388:Oil and Gas Industry / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012426:Russia; D012767:Ships