title: Prediction of cancer incidence and mortality in Korea, 2015.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  For estimation of Korea's current cancer burden, this study aimed to report on the projected cancer incidence and mortality rates for the year 2015.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2012 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2013 were acquired from Statistics Korea. The cancer incidence in 2015 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to the observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against the observed years and then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. A similar procedure was used for cancer mortality, except a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 280,556 new cancer cases and 76,698 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2015. The crude incidence rate per 100,000 of all sites combined will likely reach 551.6 and the age-standardized incidence rate, 347.6. The estimated five leading primary cancer incidence sites are the stomach, colorectum, lung, prostate, and liver in men; and thyroid, breast, colorectum, stomach, and lung in women. The projected crude mortality rate of all sites combined and age-standardized rate is 150.8 and 82.4, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Cancer is currently one of the foremost public health concerns in Korea, and as the population ages, the nation's cancer burden will continue to increase.
authors.affiliation: The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea ; National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
authors.forename: Kyu-Won
authors.initials: KW
authors.lastname: Jung
authors.affiliation: The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea ; National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
authors.forename: Young-Joo
authors.initials: YJ
authors.lastname: Won
authors.affiliation: The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea ; National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
authors.forename: Chang-Mo
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Oh
authors.affiliation: The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea ; National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
authors.forename: Hyun-Joo
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Kong
authors.affiliation: The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea ; National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
authors.forename: Hyunsoon
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Cho
authors.affiliation: National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
authors.forename: Duk Hyoung
authors.initials: DH
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea.
authors.forename: Kang Hyun
authors.initials: KH
authors.lastname: Lee
keywords: 2015; Forecasting; Incidence; Korea; Mortality; Neoplasms