title: Accurate prediction of severe allergic reactions by a small set of environmental parameters (NDVI, temperature).
abstract: Severe allergic reactions of unknown etiology,necessitating a hospital visit, have an important impact in the life of affected individuals and impose a major economic burden to societies. The prediction of clinically severe allergic reactions would be of great importance, but current attempts have been limited by the lack of a well-founded applicable methodology and the wide spatiotemporal distribution of allergic reactions. The valid prediction of severe allergies (and especially those needing hospital treatment) in a region, could alert health authorities and implicated individuals to take appropriate preemptive measures. In the present report we have collecterd visits for serious allergic reactions of unknown etiology from two major hospitals in the island of Crete, for two distinct time periods (validation and test sets). We have used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a satellite-based, freely available measurement, which is an indicator of live green vegetation at a given geographic area, and a set of meteorological data to develop a model capable of describing and predicting severe allergic reaction frequency. Our analysis has retained NDVI and temperature as accurate identifiers and predictors of increased hospital severe allergic reactions visits. Our approach may contribute towards the development of satellite-based modules, for the prediction of severe allergic reactions in specific, well-defined geographical areas. It could also probably be used for the prediction of other environment related diseases and conditions.
authors: Department of Experimental Endocrinology, University of Crete, School of Medicine, Heraklion, Greece; Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Crete, School of Medicine, Heraklion, Greece.
authors: George
authors: G
authors: Notas
authors: Department of Biology, University of Crete, School of Sciences and Technology, Heraklion, Greece.
authors: Michail
authors: M
authors: Bariotakis
authors: Department of Biology, University of Crete, School of Sciences and Technology, Heraklion, Greece.
authors: Vaios
authors: V
authors: Kalogrias
authors: Department of Experimental Endocrinology, University of Crete, School of Medicine, Heraklion, Greece.
authors: Maria
authors: M
authors: Andrianaki
authors: Department of Experimental Endocrinology, University of Crete, School of Medicine, Heraklion, Greece.
authors: Kalliopi
authors: K
authors: Azariadis
authors: Department of Experimental Endocrinology, University of Crete, School of Medicine, Heraklion, Greece.
authors: Errika
authors: E
authors: Kampouri
authors: Department of Experimental Endocrinology, University of Crete, School of Medicine, Heraklion, Greece.
authors: Katerina
authors: K
authors: Theodoropoulou
authors: Department of Experimental Endocrinology, University of Crete, School of Medicine, Heraklion, Greece.
authors: Katerina
authors: K
authors: Lavrentaki
authors: Health Center of Gerani, Chania General Hospital, Mournies Chania, Greece.
authors: Stelios
authors: S
authors: Kastrinakis
authors: Department of Experimental Endocrinology, University of Crete, School of Medicine, Heraklion, Greece.
authors: Marilena
authors: M
authors: Kampa
authors: Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Crete, School of Medicine, Heraklion, Greece.
authors: Panagiotis
authors: P
authors: Agouridakis
authors: Department of Biology, University of Crete, School of Sciences and Technology, Heraklion, Greece; Botanical Garden, University of Crete, Gallos Campus, Rethymnon, Greece.
authors: Stergios
authors: S
authors: Pirintsos
authors: Department of Experimental Endocrinology, University of Crete, School of Medicine, Heraklion, Greece.
authors: Elias
authors: E
authors: Castanas
mesh_terms: D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital; D006115:Greece; D006785:Hospitals, University; D006801:Humans; D006967:Hypersensitivity / Q000175:diagnosis*; D007073:Immunoglobulin E / Q000276:immunology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010944:Plants / Q000009:adverse effects*; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D007073:Immunoglobulin E