title: A prediction model for periodontal disease: modelling and validation from a National Survey of 4061 Taiwanese adults.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to predict periodontal disease (PD) with demographical features, oral health behaviour, and clinical correlates based on a national survey of periodontal disease in Taiwan.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 4061 subjects who were enrolled in a cross-sectional nationwide survey on periodontal conditions of residents aged 18 years or older in Taiwan between 2007 and 2008 were included. The community periodontal index (CPI) was used to measure the periodontal status at the subject and sextant levels. Information on demographical features and other relevant predictive factors for PD was collected using a questionnaire.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In our study population, 56.2% of subjects had CPI grades ≥3. Periodontitis, as defined by CPI ≥3, was best predicted by a model including age, gender, education, brushing frequency, mobile teeth, gingival bleeding, smoking, and BMI. The area under the curve (AUC) for the final prediction model was 0.712 (0.690-0.734). The AUC was 0.702 (0.665-0.740) according to cross-validation.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A prediction model for PD using information obtained from questionnaires was developed. The feasibility of its application to risk stratification of PD should be considered with regard to community-based screening for asymptomatic PD.
authors: QC Dental Clinic, Taipei, Taiwan.|Department of Dentistry, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan.|School of Dentistry, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors: Hongmin
authors: H
authors: Lai
authors: Graduate Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors: Chiu-Wen
authors: CW
authors: Su
authors: School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.|Oral Health Care Research Center, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors: Amy Ming-Fang
authors: AM
authors: Yen
authors: Department and Graduate Institute of Health Care Management, College of Management, Chang Gung University, Tao-Yuan, Taiwan.
authors: Sherry Yueh-Hsia
authors: SY
authors: Chiu
authors: Department of Health Industry Management, Kainan University, Tao-Yuan, Taiwan.
authors: Jean Ching-Yuan
authors: JC
authors: Fann
authors: Graduate Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors: Wendy Yi-Ying
authors: WY
authors: Wu
authors: Graduate Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors: Shu-Lin
authors: SL
authors: Chuang
authors: School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors: Hsing-Chih
authors: HC
authors: Liu
authors: Graduate Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors: Hsiu-Hsi
authors: HH
authors: Chen
authors: School of Oral Hygiene, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.|Oral Health Care Research Center, College of Oral Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors: Li-Sheng
authors: LS
authors: Chen
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D019540:Area Under Curve; D015992:Body Mass Index; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005884:Gingival Hemorrhage / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D010510:Periodontal Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D010512:Periodontal Index; D010514:Periodontal Pocket / Q000453:epidemiology; D010518:Periodontitis / Q000453:epidemiology; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology; D013624:Taiwan / Q000453:epidemiology; D014086:Tooth Mobility / Q000453:epidemiology; D014099:Toothbrushing / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Community Periodontal Index; ROC curve; periodontal disease; prediction