title: Analyzing seasonality of tuberculosis across Indian states and union territories.
abstract: A significant seasonal variation in tuberculosis (TB) is observed in north India during 2006-2011, particularly in states like Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. To quantify the seasonal variation, we measure average amplitude (peak to trough distance) across seasons in smear positive cases of TB and observe that it is maximum for Himachal Pradesh (40.01%) and minimum for Maharashtra (3.87%). In north India, smear positive cases peak in second quarter (April-June) and reach a trough in fourth quarter (October-December), however low seasonal variation is observed in southern region of the country. The significant correlations as 0.64 (p-value<0.001), 0.54 (p-value<0.01) and 0.42 (p-value<0.05) are observed between minimum temperature and seasonality of TB at lag-1 in north, central and northeast India respectively. However, in south India, this correlation is not significant.
authors: School of Basic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi 175001, Himachal Pradesh, India.
authors: Pankaj
authors: P
authors: Narula
authors: School of Basic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi 175001, Himachal Pradesh, India.
authors: Praveer
authors: P
authors: Sihota
authors: School of Basic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi 175001, Himachal Pradesh, India. Electronic address: sarita@iitmandi.ac.in.
authors: Sarita
authors: S
authors: Azad
authors: Computer Laboratory, William Gates Building 15, JJ Thomson Avenue, Cambridge CB3 0FD, University of Cambridge, UK.
authors: Pietro
authors: P
authors: Lio
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012621:Seasons; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology*
keywords: Poisson regression; Seasonality; Smear positive cases; Temperature; Tuberculosis