title: Prediction of 30-day mortality after transcatheter aortic valve implantation: a comparison of logistic EuroSCORE, STS score, and EuroSCORE II.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The logistic EuroSCORE and STS score have been used for the selection of suitable TAVI patients, but their predictive ability is unsatisfactory. The study aim was to evaluate the performance of the EuroSCORE II in predicting 30-day mortality after TAVI in comparison to the logistic EuroSCORE and STS scoring systems.
  
  
  METHODS
  Between January 2008 and April 2013, a total of 123 consecutive patients underwent TAVI (transapical, n = 85; transfemoral, n = 38) at the authors' institution. Calibration and discriminatory ability was evaluated for three risk scores models (logistic EuroSCORE, STS score, and EuroSCORE II), and compared for the prediction of 30-day mortality using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for goodness-of-fit and receiver operating characteristics curve analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The overall 30-day mortality was 4.1% (5/123). Predicted mortality was 25.0 ± 15.7% by logistic EuroSCORE, 7.3 ± 6.9% by STS score, and 7.8 ± 8.7% by EuroSCORE II. The observed/expected mortality ratio was 0.16 for logistic EuroSCORE, 0.56 for STS score, and 0.52 for EuroSCORE II. The area under the curve was 0.69 (95% CI 0.54-0.84) for the logistic EuroSCORE, 0.60 (95% CI 0.38-0.82) for the STS score, and 0.66 (95% CI 0.46-0.86) for the EuroSCORE II.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In the present study, the EuroSCORE II was found to predict 30-day mortality more accurately for the TAVI cohort than did the more established logistic EuroSCORE, and also to compare (at present) on a par with the STS score. However, there were no differences in discriminatory power between the models. It is believed that, in the absence of a more TAVI-oriented risk stratification system, the EuroSCORE II may be a valuable adjunct in the clinical setting.
authors: Malin
authors: M
authors: Johansson
authors: Shahab
authors: S
authors: Nozohoor
authors: Igor
authors: I
authors: Zindovic
authors: Johan
authors: J
authors: Nilsson
authors: Per Ola
authors: PO
authors: Kimblad
authors: Johan
authors: J
authors: Sjögren
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001024:Aortic Valve Stenosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D002423:Cause of Death; D016002:Discriminant Analysis; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D065467:Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement / Q000401:mortality*