title: Historical view and future demand for knee arthroplasty in Sweden.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The incidence of knee osteoarthritis will most likely increase. We analyzed historical trends in the incidence of knee arthroplasty in Sweden between 1975 and 2013, in order to be able to provide projections of future demand.
  
  
  METHODS
  We obtained information on all knee arthroplasties in Sweden in the period 1975-2013 from the Swedish Knee Arthroplasty Register, and used public domain data from Statistics Sweden on the evolution of and forecasts for the Swedish population. We forecast the incidence, presuming the existence of a maximum incidence.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We found that the incidence of knee arthroplasty will continue to increase until a projected upper incidence level of about 469 total knee replacements per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older is reached around the year 2130. In 2020, the estimated incidence of total knee arthroplasties per 10(5) Swedish residents aged 40 years and older will be 334 (95% prediction interval (PI): 281-374) and in 2030 it will be 382 (PI: 308-441). Using officially forecast population growth data, around 17,500 operations would be expected to be performed in 2020 and around 21,700 would be expected to be performed in 2030.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Today's levels of knee arthroplasty are well below the expected maximum incidence, and we expect a continued annual increase in the total number of knee arthroplasties performed.
authors: The Swedish Hip Arthroplasty Register , Gothenburg.
authors: Szilárd
authors: S
authors: Nemes
authors: Ola
authors: O
authors: Rolfson
authors: Annette
authors: A
authors: W-Dahl
authors: Göran
authors: G
authors: Garellick
authors: Martin
authors: M
authors: Sundberg
authors: Johan
authors: J
authors: Kärrholm
authors: Otto
authors: O
authors: Robertsson
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D019645:Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D020370:Osteoarthritis, Knee / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000601:surgery*; D012042:Registries; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology