title: Future trends in cystic fibrosis demography in 34 European countries.
abstract: Median survival has increased in people with cystic fibrosis (CF) during the past six decades, which has led to an increased number of adults with CF. The future impact of changes in CF demographics has not been evaluated. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of children and adults with CF in 34 European countries by 2025. Data were obtained from the European Cystic Fibrosis Society Patient Registry. Population forecasts were performed for countries that have extensive CF population coverage and at least 4 years of longitudinal data by modelling future entering and exiting flows in registry cohorts. For the other countries, population projections were performed based on assumptions from knowledge of current CF epidemiology. Western European countries' forecasts indicate that an increase in the overall number of CF patients by 2025, by approximately 50%, corresponds to an increase by 20% and by 75% in children and adults, respectively. In Eastern European countries the projections suggest a predominant increase in the CF child population, although the CF adult population would also increase.It was concluded that a large increase in the adult CF population is expected in the next decade. A significant increase in adult CF services throughout Europe is urgently required.
authors: Cochin Hospital, Assistance Publique Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France Université Paris Descartes, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France Both authors contributed equally pierre-regis.burgel@cch.aphp.fr.
authors: Pierre-Régis
authors: PR
authors: Burgel
authors: Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, Paris, France Both authors contributed equally.
authors: Gil
authors: G
authors: Bellis
authors: CF Centre Skejby, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark.
authors: Hanne V
authors: HV
authors: Olesen
authors: Dept of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
authors: Laura
authors: L
authors: Viviani
authors: Dept of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
authors: Anna
authors: A
authors: Zolin
authors: Dept of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, Università degli Studi di Milano, IRCCS Fondazione Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy.
authors: Francesco
authors: F
authors: Blasi
authors: CF and Airways Microbiology Group, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK Centre for Infection and Immunity, School of Medicine, Dentistry and Biomedical Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
authors: J Stuart
authors: JS
authors: Elborn
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003550:Cystic Fibrosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000503:physiopathology*; D003710:Demography; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006285:Health Planning; D006801:Humans; D016730:Program Development; D015272:Pulmonary Medicine / Q000458:organization & administration; D012042:Registries; D055815:Young Adult