title: [Prospective study of cognitive decline assessed using the mini-mental state examination and the risk of incident long-term care insurance among community-dwelling older Japanese].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We examined the longitudinal association between the change in the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score per year and the incidence of a certified need for care in the long-term care insurance system among community-dwelling older Japanese subjects.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 773 adults 65 years of age or older who participated in a baseline survey (2002 to 2007) underwent MMSE reevaluation at least once until Wave-1 (2003 to 2008). The incidence of a certified need for care in the long-term care insurance system until Wave-2 (Wave-1 to 2013) was examined in all subjects.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During an average follow-up of 1,195 days (baseline survey to Wave-1), the change in the MMSE score per year was greater than 0 in 511 (66.1%) participants, 0 to -0.5 in 94 (12.2%) participants, -0.5 to -1 in 66 (8.5%) participants, -1 to -2 in 56 (7.2%) participants, and less than -2 in 46 (6.0%) participants. During an average follow-up of 1,802 days (Wave-1 to Wave-2), 104 participants (13.5%) were newly certified with a need for care in the long-term care insurance system. After controlling for important confounders, elders with a change in the MMSE score of 0 to -0.5, -0.5 to -1, -1 to -2 and less than -2 per year were 1.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.93-3.23), 1.94 (1.01-3.45), 1.95 (1.02-3.76) and 3.16 (1.68-5.98) times as likely to be newly certified with a need for care in the long-term care insurance system, respectively, compared those with a change in the score greater than 0.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The extent of change in the MMSE score per year independently predicted the incident certified need for care in the long-term care insurance system in a general population of older Japanese subjects. A decrease of greater than 0.5 points per year may be a useful cutoff value for clinically evaluating elders.
authors: Research Team for Social Participation and Community Health, Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology.
authors: Yu
authors: Y
authors: Taniguchi
authors: Yoshinori
authors: Y
authors: Fujiwara
authors: Tomohiro
authors: T
authors: Shinozaki
authors: Hidenori
authors: H
authors: Amano
authors: Mariko
authors: M
authors: Nishi
authors: Hiroshi
authors: H
authors: Murayama
authors: Yu
authors: Y
authors: Nofuji
authors: Satoshi
authors: S
authors: Seino
authors: Miki
authors: M
authors: Narita
authors: Eri
authors: E
authors: Matsuo
authors: Yuri
authors: Y
authors: Yokoyama
authors: Shoji
authors: S
authors: Shinkai
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D003072:Cognition Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D057187:Independent Living; D007353:Insurance, Long-Term Care; D008297:Male; D011446:Prospective Studies