title: Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Marburg virus disease (MVD) describes a viral haemorrhagic fever responsible for a number of outbreaks across eastern and southern Africa. It is a zoonotic disease, with the Egyptian rousette (Rousettus aegyptiacus) identified as a reservoir host. Infection is suspected to result from contact between this reservoir and human populations, with occasional secondary human-to-human transmission.
  
  
  METHODS
  Index cases of previous human outbreaks were identified and reports of infection in animals recorded. These data were modelled within a species distribution modelling framework in order to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential of MVD across sub-Saharan Africa.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Areas suitable for zoonotic transmission of MVD are predicted in 27 countries inhabited by 105 million people. Regions are suggested for exploratory surveys to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease, as well as for directing efforts to communicate the risk of practices enhancing zoonotic contact.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These maps can inform future contingency and preparedness strategies for MVD control, especially where secondary transmission is a risk. Coupling this risk map with patient travel histories could be used to guide the differential diagnosis of highly transmissible pathogens, enabling more rapid response to outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever.
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK david.pigott@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
authors.forename: David M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Pigott
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Nick
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Golding
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Adrian
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mylne
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Zhi
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Daniel J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Weiss
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Oliver J
authors.initials: OJ
authors.lastname: Brady
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Moritz U G
authors.initials: MU
authors.lastname: Kraemer
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
authors.forename: Simon I
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: Hay
mesh_terms: D017954:Africa South of the Sahara / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D002685:Chiroptera / Q000821:virology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000821:virology*; D004463:Ecology; D005843:Geography; D006790:Host-Parasite Interactions; D006801:Humans; D008379:Marburg Virus Disease / Q000635:transmission*; D029024:Marburgvirus / Q000235:genetics / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010802:Phylogeny; D012367:RNA, Viral / Q000302:isolation & purification; D012307:Risk Factors; D012621:Seasons; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology*
chemical_list: D012367:RNA, Viral
keywords: Boosted regression trees; Filovirus; Marburg virus disease; Rousettus aegyptiacus; Species distribution models; Viral haemorrhagic fever
references.citation: Trends Microbiol. 2007 Sep;15(9):408-16
references.pmid: 17698361
references.citation: Dtsch Med Wochenschr. 1967 Dec 22;92(51):2341-3
references.pmid: 4294540
references.citation: MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2009 Dec 18;58(49):1377-81
references.pmid: 20019654
references.citation: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2012 Oct 19;367(1604):2881-92
references.pmid: 22966143
references.citation: Curr Top Microbiol Immunol. 1999;235:49-75
references.pmid: 9893378
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 2006 Aug 31;355(9):909-19
references.pmid: 16943403
references.citation: Br Med Bull. 2010;95:193-225
references.pmid: 20682627
references.citation: Wien Klin Wochenschr. 2010 Oct;122 Suppl 3:19-30
references.pmid: 20924703
references.citation: Proc Biol Sci. 2015 Jan 7;282(1798):20142124
references.pmid: 25392474
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 2014 Oct 16;371(16):1545-6
references.pmid: 25244185
references.citation: Science. 2012 Nov 9;338(6108):750-2
references.pmid: 23139320
references.citation: Arch Virol Suppl. 2008;20:13-360
references.pmid: 18637412
references.citation: Sci Data. 2014;1:140042
references.pmid: 25984346
references.citation: Elife. 2014;3:e04395
references.pmid: 25201877
references.citation: J Anim Ecol. 2008 Jul;77(4):802-13
references.pmid: 18397250
references.citation: Science. 2006 Dec 8;314(5805):1564
references.pmid: 17158318
references.citation: Emerg Infect Dis. 2009 Aug;15(8):1171-5
references.pmid: 19751577
references.citation: Arch Virol Suppl. 1996;11:101-14
references.pmid: 8800792
references.citation: Ecology. 2007 Jan;88(1):243-51
references.pmid: 17489472
references.citation: Emerg Infect Dis. 2014 Oct;20(10):1761-4
references.pmid: 25272104
references.citation: Microbes Infect. 2000 Jan;2(1):39-44
references.pmid: 10717539
references.citation: Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1988 Mar;38(2):407-10
references.pmid: 3128130
references.citation: Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2006 Jul;75(1):9-15
references.pmid: 16837700
references.citation: PLoS One. 2012;7(2):e31743
references.pmid: 22363717
references.citation: J Infect Dis. 2007 Nov 15;196 Suppl 2:S162-7
references.pmid: 17940945
references.citation: Trop Med Int Health. 2002 Oct;7(10):902-6
references.pmid: 12358627
references.citation: PLoS Pathog. 2012;8(10):e1002877
references.pmid: 23055920
references.citation: Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1993 Sep-Oct;87(5):530-5
references.pmid: 8266402
references.citation: J Infect Dis. 2007 Nov 15;196 Suppl 2:S154-61
references.pmid: 17940944
references.citation: BMC Infect Dis. 2009;9:159
references.pmid: 19785757
references.citation: Emerg Infect Dis. 2007 Dec;13(12):1847-51
references.pmid: 18258034
references.citation: PLoS Curr. 2014 Sep 29;6:null
references.pmid: 25642369
references.citation: J Infect Dis. 1999 Feb;179 Suppl 1:S120-6
references.pmid: 9988175
references.citation: Science. 2008 Oct 10;322(5899):225-30
references.pmid: 18845749
references.citation: J Infect Dis. 2010 Jun 15;201(12):1909-18
references.pmid: 20441515
references.citation: Ecol Appl. 2009 Jan;19(1):181-97
references.pmid: 19323182
references.citation: ISPRS J Photogramm Remote Sens. 2014 Dec;98:106-118
references.pmid: 25642100
references.citation: Lancet. 2015 Jan 3;385(9962):29-35
references.pmid: 25458732
references.citation: Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1988;82(5):761-6
references.pmid: 2855284
references.citation: Ecology. 2012 Mar;93(3):679-88
references.pmid: 22624221
references.citation: J Virol. 2006 Jul;80(13):6497-516
references.pmid: 16775337
references.citation: Lancet. 1982 Apr 10;1(8276):816-20
references.pmid: 6122054
references.citation: Emerg Infect Dis. 2004 Jan;10(1):40-7
references.pmid: 15078595
references.citation: J Infect Dis. 2011 Nov;204 Suppl 3:S796-9
references.pmid: 21987753
references.citation: Afr Health Sci. 2012 Dec;12(4):579-83
references.pmid: 23516123
references.citation: PLoS Pathog. 2009 Jul;5(7):e1000536
references.pmid: 19649327
references.citation: Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1978 Nov;27(6):1210-5
references.pmid: 569445
references.citation: Lancet Glob Health. 2014 Dec;2(12):e685
references.pmid: 25433618
references.citation: Science. 2014 Sep 12;345(6202):1369-72
references.pmid: 25214632
references.citation: Proc Biol Sci. 2015 Mar 22;282(1803):20142591
references.pmid: 25673678
references.citation: Emerg Infect Dis. 2014 Jul;20(7):1176-82
references.pmid: 24959946
references.citation: Blut. 1986 Aug;53(2):115-7
references.pmid: 3015288