title: Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012.
abstract: Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses, and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere (N) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985-1999 period meanN(0.34 ± 0.67 Wm-2) is lower than for the 2000-2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm-2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude ofNremains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability inNgenerated by an ensemble of nine climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite-based reconstruction is significantly correlated (r∼0.6) over the 1985-2012 period.
authors.affiliation: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Reading, UK.
authors.forename: Richard P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Allan
authors.affiliation: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Reading, UK.
authors.forename: Chunlei
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, Virginia, USA.
authors.forename: Norman G
authors.initials: NG
authors.lastname: Loeb
authors.affiliation: Met Office Exeter, UK.
authors.forename: Matthew D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Palmer
authors.affiliation: Met Office Exeter, UK.
authors.forename: Malcolm
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Roberts
authors.affiliation: Met Office Exeter, UK.
authors.forename: Doug
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Reading, UK.
authors.forename: Pier-Luigi
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Vidale
keywords: climate model; climate variability; energy balance; radiative flux; satellite data; temperature
references.citation: Science. 2010 Mar 5;327(5970):1219-23
references.pmid: 20110466
references.citation: Science. 2002 Feb 1;295(5556):841-4
references.pmid: 11823638
references.citation: Nature. 2013 Sep 19;501(7467):403-7
references.pmid: 23995690
references.citation: Science. 2011 Aug 12;333(6044):866-70
references.pmid: 21778361
references.citation: Science. 2002 Jun 21;296(5576):2095
references.pmid: 12077370
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Jul 19;108(29):11790-3
references.pmid: 21730180