title: A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics.
abstract: Infectious diseases spreading in a human population occasionally exhibit sudden transitions in their qualitative dynamics. Previous work has successfully predicted such transitions in New York City's historical measles incidence using the seasonally forced susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. This work relied on a dataset spanning 45 years (1928-1973), which we have extended to 93 years (1891-1984). We identify additional dynamical transitions in the longer dataset and successfully explain them by analysing attractors and transients of the same mechanistic epidemiological model.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1 hempelkr@math.mcmaster.ca.
authors.forename: Karsten
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hempel
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4K1.
authors.forename: David J D
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Earn
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D019353:Endemic Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D032541:Mass Vaccination / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D008457:Measles / Q000401:mortality* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008458:Measles Vaccine / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009519:New York City / Q000453:epidemiology; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012621:Seasons; D015996:Survival Rate; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D008458:Measles Vaccine
keywords: disease dynamics; disease ecology; epidemiology; mathematical biology; measles in New York City; mechanistic modelling
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