title: Changes in rodent abundance and weather conditions potentially drive hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in Xi'an, China, 2005-2012.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Increased risks for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by Hantaan virus have been observed since 2005, in Xi'an, China. Despite increased vigilance and preparedness, HFRS outbreaks in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were larger than ever, with a total of 3,938 confirmed HFRS cases and 88 deaths in 2010 and 2011.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Data on HFRS cases and weather were collected monthly from 2005 to 2012, along with active rodent monitoring. Wavelet analyses were performed to assess the temporal relationship between HFRS incidence, rodent density and climatic factors over the study period. Results showed that HFRS cases correlated to rodent density, rainfall, and temperature with 2, 3 and 4-month lags, respectively. Using a Bayesian time-series Poisson adjusted model, we fitted the HFRS outbreaks among humans for risk assessment in Xi'an. The best models included seasonality, autocorrelation, rodent density 2 months previously, and rainfall 2 to 3 months previously. Our models well reflected the epidemic characteristics by one step ahead prediction, out-of-sample.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In addition to a strong seasonal pattern, HFRS incidence was correlated with rodent density and rainfall, indicating that they potentially drive the HFRS outbreaks. Future work should aim to determine the mechanism underlying the seasonal pattern and autocorrelation. However, this model can be useful in risk management to provide early warning of potential outbreaks of this disease.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Huai-Yu
authors.initials: HY
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.affiliation: Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Peng-Bo
authors.initials: PB
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, United States of America; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America.
authors.forename: Angela D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Luis
authors.affiliation: Discipline of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.
authors.forename: Peng
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Bi
authors.affiliation: UMMISCO, UMI 209 IRD-UPMC, 93142 Bondy, France; Eco-Evolutionary Mathematic, IBENS UMR 8197, ENS, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cazelles
authors.affiliation: Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Marko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Laine
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Shan-Qian
authors.initials: SQ
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Xi'an Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Chao-Feng
authors.initials: CF
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Sen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wei
authors.affiliation: Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Shen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Hu County Centre for Disease Control and Prevention of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Xiao-Ling
authors.initials: XL
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.affiliation: Hu County Centre for Disease Control and Prevention of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Jian-Hui
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Qu
authors.affiliation: Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Jian-Hua
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Dong
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Shi-Lu
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Tong
authors.affiliation: Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Jing-Jun
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America.
authors.forename: Bryan
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Grenfell
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Bing
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Xu
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000266:history / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D018063:Hantaan virus; D006480:Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012377:Rodentia / Q000502:physiology*; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature
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