title: Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens.
abstract: Studying the emergence of novel infectious agents involves many processes spanning host species, spatial scales, and scientific disciplines. Mathematical models play an essential role in combining insights from these investigations and drawing robust inferences from field and experimental data. We describe nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens, emphasizing the interface between models and data.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA. Electronic address: jlloydsmith@ucla.edu.
authors.forename: James O
authors.initials: JO
authors.lastname: Lloyd-Smith
authors.affiliation: Center for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Sebastian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Funk
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Angela R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: McLean
authors.affiliation: Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Disease Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Riley
authors.affiliation: Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: James L N
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Wood
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D021821:Communicable Diseases, Emerging / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011159:Population Surveillance; D013045:Species Specificity; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission
keywords: Cross-species spillover transmission; Emerging infectious diseases; Host jump; Infectious disease dynamics; Zoonosis
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