title: Predicting cumulative risk of disease onset by redistributing weights.
abstract: We propose a simple approach predicting the cumulative risk of disease accommodating predictors with time-varying effects and outcomes subject to censoring. We use a nonparametric function for the coefficient of the time-varying effect and handle censoring through self-consistency equations that redistribute the probability mass of censored outcomes to the right. The computational procedure is extremely convenient and can be implemented by standard software. We prove large sample properties of the proposed estimator and evaluate its finite sample performance through simulation studies. We apply the method to estimate the cumulative risk of developing Huntington's disease (HD) from subjects with huntingtin gene mutation using a large collaborative HD study data and illustrate an inverse relationship between the cumulative risk of HD and the length of cytosine-adenine-guanine repeats in the huntingtin gene.
authors.affiliation: Biogen, Cambridge, MA, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Tianle
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Yanyuan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Yuanjia
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017668:Age of Onset; D056808:Biostatistics; D003198:Computer Simulation; D006801:Humans; D000071058:Huntingtin Protein; D006816:Huntington Disease / Q000235:genetics; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D009419:Nerve Tissue Proteins / Q000235:genetics; D064887:Observational Studies as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012306:Risk; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D019680:Trinucleotide Repeat Expansion
chemical_list: C086055:HTT protein, human; D000071058:Huntingtin Protein; D009419:Nerve Tissue Proteins
keywords: Huntington's disease; proportional odds model; self-consistency equation; varying-coefficient model
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