title: Modelling runway incursion severity.
abstract: Analysis of the causes underlying runway incursions is fundamental for the development of effective mitigation measures. However, there are significant weaknesses in the current methods to model these factors. This paper proposes a structured framework for modelling causal factors and their relationship to severity, which includes a description of the airport surface system architecture, establishment of terminological definitions, the determination and collection of appropriate data, the analysis of occurrences for severity and causes, and the execution of a statistical analysis framework. It is implemented in the context of U.S. airports, enabling the identification of a number of priority interventions, including the need for better investigation and causal factor capture, recommendations for airfield design, operating scenarios and technologies, and better training for human operators in the system. The framework is recommended for the analysis of runway incursions to support safety improvements and the methodology is transferable to other areas of aviation safety risk analysis.
authors.affiliation: Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, Skempton Building, SW72AZ London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: sabinewike1@web.de.
authors.forename: Sabine
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wilke
authors.affiliation: Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, Skempton Building, SW72AZ London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: A.majumdar@imperial.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Arnab
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Majumdar
authors.affiliation: Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, Skempton Building, SW72AZ London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: W.ochieng@imperial.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Washington Y
authors.initials: WY
authors.lastname: Ochieng
mesh_terms: D000060:Accidents, Aviation / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D059028:Airports / Q000592:standards* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001108:Architecture; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012449:Safety / Q000592:standards* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014481:United States
keywords: Accident/incident analysis; Airport surface safety; Predictive safety; Runway incursions; Severity