title: Detecting fossil fuel emissions patterns from subcontinental regions using North American in situ CO2measurements.
abstract: The ability to monitor fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions from subcontinental regions using atmospheric CO2observations remains an important but unrealized goal. Here we explore a necessary but not sufficient component of this goal, namely, the basic question of the detectability of FFCO2emissions from subcontinental regions. Detectability is evaluated by examining the degree to which FFCO2emissions patterns from specific regions are needed to explain the variability observed in high-frequency atmospheric CO2observations. Analyses using a CO2monitoring network of 35 continuous measurement towers over North America show that FFCO2emissions are difficult to detect during nonwinter months. We find that the compounding effects of the seasonality of atmospheric transport patterns and the biospheric CO2flux signal dramatically hamper the detectability of FFCO2emissions. Results from several synthetic data case studies highlight the need for advancements in data coverage and transport model accuracy if the goal of atmospheric measurement-based FFCO2emissions detection and estimation is to be achieved beyond urban scales.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Poor detectability of fossil fuel CO2emissions from subcontinental regionsDetectability assessed via attribution of emissions patterns in atmospheric dataLoss in detectability due to transport modeling errors and biospheric signal.
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University Stanford, California, USA ; Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford, California, USA.
authors.forename: Yoichi P
authors.initials: YP
authors.lastname: Shiga
authors.affiliation: Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford, California, USA.
authors.forename: Anna M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Michalak
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental and Earth Systems Science, Stanford University Stanford, California, USA.
authors.forename: Sharon M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Gourdji
authors.affiliation: Science and Technology Policy Institute Washington, District of Columbia, USA.
authors.forename: Kim L
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Mueller
authors.affiliation: Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford, California, USA.
authors.forename: Vineet
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Yadav
keywords: MRV; carbon dioxide; detection of fossil fuel emissions; inverse problem; monitoring; verification
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2009 Jul 15;43(14):5535-41
references.pmid: 19708393
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2012 Nov 6;46(21):12194-202
references.pmid: 22891924