title: Complex Adaptive Systems, soil degradation and land sensitivity to desertification: A multivariate assessment of Italian agro-forest landscape.
abstract: Degradation of soils and sensitivity of land to desertification are intensified in last decades in the Mediterranean region producing heterogeneous spatial patterns determined by the interplay of factors such as climate, land-use changes, and human pressure. The present study hypothesizes that rising levels of soil degradation and land sensitivity to desertification are reflected into increasingly complex (and non-linear) relationships between environmental and socioeconomic variables. To verify this hypothesis, the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework was used to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of eleven indicators derived from a standard assessment of soil degradation and land sensitivity to desertification in Italy. Indicators were made available on a detailed spatial scale (773 agricultural districts) for various years (1960, 1990, 2000 and 2010) and analyzed through a multi-dimensional exploratory data analysis. Our results indicate that the number of significant pair-wise correlations observed between indicators increased with the level of soil and land degradation, although with marked differences between northern and southern Italy. 'Fast' and 'slow' factors underlying soil and land degradation, and 'rapidly-evolving' or 'locked' agricultural districts were identified according to the rapidity of change estimated for each of the indicators studied. In southern Italy, 'rapidly-evolving' districts show a high level of soil degradation and land sensitivity to desertification during the whole period of investigation. On the contrary, those districts in northern Italy are those experiencing a moderate soil degradation and land sensitivity to desertification with the highest increase in the level of sensitivity over time. The study framework contributes to the assessment of complex local systems' dynamics in affluent but divided countries. Results may inform thematic strategies for the mitigation of land and soil degradation in the framework of action plans to combat desertification.
authors.affiliation: Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricultura e l'analisi dell'economia agraria (CRA), Via della Navicella 2, I-00184 Rome, Italy. Electronic address: luca.salvati@entecra.it.
authors.forename: Luca
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Salvati
authors.affiliation: Institute of Urban Environment and Human Resources, Department of Economic and Regional Development, Panteion University, 136 Syngrou Avenue, GR-17671 Athens, Greece.
authors.forename: Anastasios
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mavrakis
authors.affiliation: Università degli studi di Viterbo, Dipartimento di Science e Tecnologie per l'Agricoltura, le Foreste, la Natura e l'Energia, Via S. Camillo de Lellis snc, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy.
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Colantoni
authors.affiliation: School of Agricultural, Forest, Food and Environmental Sciences, University of Basilicata, Viale dell'Ateneo Lucano 10, I-85100 Potenza, Italy.
authors.forename: Giuseppe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Mancino
authors.affiliation: School of Agricultural, Forest, Food and Environmental Sciences, University of Basilicata, Viale dell'Ateneo Lucano 10, I-85100 Potenza, Italy.
authors.forename: Agostino
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ferrara
keywords: Desertification; Indicators; Italy; Land sensitivity; Soil degradation; Sustainable land management