title: The relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index, rainfall and the occurrence of canine tick paralysis, feline tick paralysis and canine parvovirus in Australia.
abstract: The aim of this study was to describe the association between climate, weather and the occurrence of canine tick paralysis, feline tick paralysis and canine parvovirus in Australia. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and monthly average rainfall (mm) data were used as indices for climate and weather, respectively. Case data were extracted from a voluntary national companion animal disease surveillance resource. Climate and weather data were obtained from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. During the 4-year study period (January 2010-December 2013), a total of 4742 canine parvovirus cases and 8417 tick paralysis cases were reported. No significant (P ≥ 0.05) correlations were found between the SOI and parvovirus, canine tick paralysis or feline tick paralysis. A significant (P < 0.05) positive cross-correlation was found between parvovirus occurrence and rainfall in the same month (0.28), and significant negative cross-correlations (-0.26 to -0.36) between parvovirus occurrence and rainfall 4-6 months previously. Significant (P < 0.05) negative cross-correlations (-0.34 to -0.39) were found between canine tick paralysis occurrence and rainfall 1-3 months previously, and significant positive cross-correlations (0.29-0.47) between canine tick paralysis occurrence and rainfall 7-10 months previously. Significant positive cross-correlations (0.37-0.68) were found between cases of feline tick paralysis and rainfall 6-10 months previously. These findings may offer a useful tool for the management and prevention of tick paralysis and canine parvovirus, by providing an evidence base supporting the recommendations of veterinarians to clients thus reducing the impact of these diseases.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Private Mailbag 4003, Narellan, NSW 2567, Australia.
authors.forename: Tamara
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Rika-Heke
authors.affiliation: Virbac Australia, Milperra, NSW 1891, Australia.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kelman
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Private Mailbag 4003, Narellan, NSW 2567, Australia. Electronic address: michael.ward@sydney.edu.au.
authors.forename: Michael P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Ward
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia; D002371:Cat Diseases / Q000209:etiology* / Q000821:virology; D002415:Cats; D002980:Climate; D004283:Dog Diseases / Q000209:etiology* / Q000821:virology; D004285:Dogs; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D010322:Parvoviridae Infections / Q000209:etiology / Q000662:veterinary*; D011891:Rain; D013985:Tick Paralysis / Q000209:etiology / Q000662:veterinary*
keywords: Australia; Canine parvovirus; Climate; Southern Oscillation Index; Tick paralysis; Time-series; Weather