title: Predicting hepatitis B monthly incidence rates using weighted Markov chains and time series methods.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Hepatitis B (HB) is a major global mortality. Accurately predicting the trend of the disease can provide an appropriate view to make health policy disease prevention. This paper aimed to apply three different to predict monthly incidence rates of HB.
  
  
  METHODS
  This historical cohort study was conducted on the HB incidence data of Hamadan Province, the west of Iran, from 2004 to 2012. Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) method based on Markov chain theory and two time series models including Holt Exponential Smoothing (HES) and SARIMA were applied on the data. The results of different applied methods were compared to correct percentages of predicted incidence rates.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The monthly incidence rates were clustered into two clusters as state of Markov chain. The correct predicted percentage of the first and second clusters for WMC, HES and SARIMA methods was (100, 0), (84, 67) and (79, 47) respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The overall incidence rate of HBV is estimated to decrease over time. The comparison of results of the three models indicated that in respect to existing seasonality trend and non-stationarity, the HES had the most accurate prediction of the incidence rates.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
authors.forename: Maryam
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Shahdoust
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Faculty of Basic Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran.
authors.forename: Majid
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sadeghifar
authors.affiliation: Chronic Diseases (Home care) Research Center and Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
authors.forename: Jalal
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Poorolajal
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
authors.forename: Niloofar
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Javanrooh
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran. p.amini@umsha.ac.ir.
authors.forename: Payam
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Amini
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006509:Hepatitis B / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D015233:Models, Statistical
keywords: Hepatitis B; Incidence rate; Markov Chains; Prediction; Time series