title: Life cycle air emissions impacts and ownership costs of light-duty vehicles using natural gas as a primary energy source.
abstract: This paper aims to comprehensively distinguish among the merits of different vehicles using a common primary energy source. In this study, we consider compressed natural gas (CNG) use directly in conventional vehicles (CV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), and natural gas-derived electricity (NG-e) use in plug-in battery electric vehicles (BEV). This study evaluates the incremental life cycle air emissions (climate change and human health) impacts and life cycle ownership costs of non-plug-in (CV and HEV) and plug-in light-duty vehicles. Replacing a gasoline CV with a CNG CV, or a CNG CV with a CNG HEV, can provide life cycle air emissions impact benefits without increasing ownership costs; however, the NG-e BEV will likely increase costs (90% confidence interval: $1000 to $31 000 incremental cost per vehicle lifetime). Furthermore, eliminating HEV tailpipe emissions via plug-in vehicles has an insignificant incremental benefit, due to high uncertainties, with emissions cost benefits between -$1000 and $2000. Vehicle criteria air contaminants are a relatively minor contributor to life cycle air emissions impacts because of strict vehicle emissions standards. Therefore, policies should focus on adoption of plug-in vehicles in nonattainment regions, because CNG vehicles are likely more cost-effective at providing overall life cycle air emissions impact benefits.
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4 Canada.|Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, University of Toronto, 200 College Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E5 Canada.|Department of Civil Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4 Canada.
authors.forename: Jason M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Luk
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4 Canada.|Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, University of Toronto, 200 College Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E5 Canada.|Department of Civil Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4 Canada.
authors.forename: Bradley A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Saville
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4 Canada.|Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, University of Toronto, 200 College Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E5 Canada.|Department of Civil Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4 Canada.
authors.forename: Heather L
authors.initials: HL
authors.lastname: MacLean
mesh_terms: D001336:Automobiles / Q000191:economics*; D057231:Climate Change; D011211:Electric Power Supplies; D004736:Energy-Generating Resources; D004777:Environment; D005742:Gasoline / Q000032:analysis / Q000191:economics; D006801:Humans; D059206:Natural Gas / Q000032:analysis / Q000191:economics; D010067:Ownership; D001335:Vehicle Emissions / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D005742:Gasoline; D059206:Natural Gas; D001335:Vehicle Emissions