title: Rumor diffusion and convergence during the 3.11 earthquake: a twitter case study.
abstract: We focus on Internet rumors and present an empirical analysis and simulation results of their diffusion and convergence during emergencies. In particular, we study one rumor that appeared in the immediate aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, which later turned out to be misinformation. By investigating whole Japanese tweets that were sent one week after the quake, we show that one correction tweet, which originated from a city hall account, diffused enormously. We also demonstrate a stochastic agent-based model, which is inspired by contagion model of epidemics SIR, can reproduce observed rumor dynamics. Our model can estimate the rumor infection rate as well as the number of people who still believe in the rumor that cannot be observed directly. For applications, rumor diffusion sizes can be estimated in various scenarios by combining our model with the real data.
authors.affiliation: Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Misako
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Takayasu
authors.affiliation: Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Kazuya
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sato
authors.affiliation: College of Science and Technology, Nihon University, Funabashi, Chiba, Japan; Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
authors.forename: Yukie
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Sano
authors.affiliation: Waseda Institute for Advanced Study, Shinjuku, Tokyo, Japan; Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Kawaguchi, Saitama, Japan.
authors.forename: Kenta
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Yamada
authors.affiliation: Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Wataru
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Miura
authors.affiliation: Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; Sony Computer Science Laboratories, Inc., Shinagawa, Tokyo, Japan; Meiji Institute for Advanced Study of Mathematical Sciences, Kawasaki, Kanagawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Hideki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Takayasu
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D057218:Blogging; D003142:Communication; D003198:Computer Simulation; D055866:Earthquakes; D004630:Emergencies; D006801:Humans; D033181:Information Dissemination; D020407:Internet; D007564:Japan; D061108:Social Media
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