title: Forecasting of VOC emissions from traffic and industry using classification and regression multivariate methods.
abstract: In this study, advanced multivariate methods were applied for VOC source apportionment and subsequent short-term forecast of industrial- and vehicle exhaust-related contributions in Belgrade urban area (Serbia). The VOC concentrations were measured using PTR-MS, together with inorganic gaseous pollutants (NOx, NO, NO2, SO2, and CO), PM10, and meteorological parameters. US EPA Positive Matrix Factorization and Unmix receptor models were applied to the obtained dataset both resolving six source profiles. For the purpose of forecasting industrial- and vehicle exhaust-related source contributions, different multivariate methods were employed in two separate cases, relying on meteorological data, and on meteorological data and concentrations of inorganic gaseous pollutants, respectively. The results indicate that Boosted Decision Trees and Multi-Layer Perceptrons were the best performing methods. According to the results, forecasting accuracy was high (lowest relative error of only 6%), in particular when the forecast was based on both meteorological parameters and concentrations of inorganic gaseous pollutants.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Physics Belgrade, University of Belgrade, Pregrevica 118, 11080 Belgrade, Serbia. Electronic address: andreja.stojic@ipb.ac.rs.
authors.forename: Andreja
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Stojić
authors.affiliation: Institute of Physics Belgrade, University of Belgrade, Pregrevica 118, 11080 Belgrade, Serbia. Electronic address: dimitrije.maletic@ipb.ac.rs.
authors.forename: Dimitrije
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Maletić
authors.affiliation: Singidunum University, Danijelova 32, 11010 Belgrade, Serbia. Electronic address: sstanisic@singidunum.ac.rs.
authors.forename: Svetlana
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Stanišić Stojić
authors.affiliation: Institute of Physics Belgrade, University of Belgrade, Pregrevica 118, 11080 Belgrade, Serbia. Electronic address: zoran.mijic@ipb.ac.rs.
authors.forename: Zoran
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Mijić
authors.affiliation: Institute of Public Health Belgrade, Bulevar Despota Stefana 54, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia. Electronic address: andrej.sostaric@zdravlje.org.rs.
authors.forename: Andrej
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Šoštarić
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D055771:Serbia; D001335:Vehicle Emissions / Q000032:analysis; D055549:Volatile Organic Compounds / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D001335:Vehicle Emissions; D055549:Volatile Organic Compounds
keywords: Forecasting; MVA; PTR-MS; Receptor modeling; VOC