title: A predictive model for microbial counts on beaches where intertidal sand is the primary source.
abstract: Human health protection at recreational beaches requires accurate and timely information on microbiological conditions to issue advisories. The objective of this study was to develop a new numerical mass balance model for enterococci levels on nonpoint source beaches. The significant advantage of this model is its easy implementation, and it provides a detailed description of the cross-shore distribution of enterococci that is useful for beach management purposes. The performance of the balance model was evaluated by comparing predicted exceedances of a beach advisory threshold value to field data, and to a traditional regression model. Both the balance model and regression equation predicted approximately 70% the advisories correctly at the knee depth and over 90% at the waist depth. The balance model has the advantage over the regression equation in its ability to simulate spatiotemporal variations of microbial levels, and it is recommended for making more informed management decisions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA; NSF NIEHS Oceans and Human Health Center, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA. Electronic address: zfeng@rsmas.miami.edu.
authors.forename: Zhixuan
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.affiliation: Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA; NSF NIEHS Oceans and Human Health Center, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA; Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Environmental Fluid Mechanics Section, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Ad
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Reniers
authors.affiliation: Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA; NSF NIEHS Oceans and Human Health Center, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
authors.forename: Brian K
authors.initials: BK
authors.lastname: Haus
authors.affiliation: NSF NIEHS Oceans and Human Health Center, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA; Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Miami, 1251 Memorial Drive, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA.
authors.forename: Helena M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Solo-Gabriele
authors.affiliation: Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA; NSF NIEHS Oceans and Human Health Center, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
authors.forename: John D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: NSF NIEHS Oceans and Human Health Center, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA; European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, Cornwall TR1 3HD, UK.
authors.forename: Lora E
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Fleming
mesh_terms: D001493:Bathing Beaches / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016983:Enterococcus / Q000254:growth & development; D004777:Environment; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D019015:Geologic Sediments / Q000382:microbiology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011998:Recreation; D012623:Seawater / Q000382:microbiology*; D014871:Water Microbiology
keywords: Beach advisory; Fecal indicator bacteria; Microbial mass balance; Multivariable linear regression; Nonpoint source beach; Water quality model
references.citation: Appl Environ Microbiol. 2012 Nov;78(21):7776-85
references.pmid: 22941072
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2012 Jun 5;46(11):5988-96
references.pmid: 22533299
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2007 Jul 1;41(13):4515-21
references.pmid: 17695890
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2010 Sep 1;44(17):6731-7
references.pmid: 20687542
references.citation: Appl Environ Microbiol. 2012 Sep;78(17):5973-82
references.pmid: 22706061
references.citation: Water Res. 2005 Sep;39(14):3394-408
references.pmid: 16051310
references.citation: Microbiol Mol Biol Rev. 2012 Dec;76(4):685-706
references.pmid: 23204362
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2006 Aug 15;40(16):5022-8
references.pmid: 16955902
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2010 Feb 1;44(3):1010-6
references.pmid: 20043679
references.citation: Environ Res J. 2009;2(4):395-417
references.pmid: 36567760
references.citation: Appl Environ Microbiol. 2002 Mar;68(3):1122-31
references.pmid: 11872459
references.citation: FEMS Microbiol Ecol. 2011 Jul;77(1):40-9
references.pmid: 21385189
references.citation: Am J Epidemiol. 2009 Jul 15;170(2):164-72
references.pmid: 19541858
references.citation: Water Res. 2005 Dec;39(20):4953-60
references.pmid: 16290180
references.citation: J Environ Public Health. 2013;2013:138521
references.pmid: 23431320
references.citation: Appl Environ Microbiol. 2003 Aug;69(8):4714-9
references.pmid: 12902262
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2004 May 1;38(9):2626-36
references.pmid: 15180059
references.citation: Mar Pollut Bull. 2011 Nov;62(11):2293-8
references.pmid: 21945015
references.citation: Appl Environ Microbiol. 2003 Sep;69(9):5555-62
references.pmid: 12957945
references.citation: Environ Res. 2007 Mar;103(3):358-64
references.pmid: 17189630
references.citation: Water Res. 2005 Dec;39(20):5250-60
references.pmid: 16310242
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2013 Sep 17;47(18):10231-9
references.pmid: 23924260
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2005 Aug 15;39(16):5940-53
references.pmid: 16173550
references.citation: Cont Shelf Res. 2011 Sep 15;31(14):1457-1461
references.pmid: 21984862
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2002 Sep 15;36(18):3885-92
references.pmid: 12269739
references.citation: J Appl Microbiol. 2011 Jun;110(6):1571-83
references.pmid: 21447014
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2011 Jan 15;45(2):370-9
references.pmid: 21162561
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2010 Dec 1;44(23):8804-13
references.pmid: 20949912
references.citation: Water Res. 2011 Dec 15;45(20):6763-9
references.pmid: 22071324
references.citation: Water Res. 2010 Jul;44(14):4186-94
references.pmid: 20617564
references.citation: Water Res. 2004 Jul;38(13):3119-31
references.pmid: 15261551
references.citation: Water Res. 2011 Apr;45(9):2985-95
references.pmid: 21477839
references.citation: Int J Epidemiol. 2010 Oct;39(5):1291-8
references.pmid: 20522483
references.citation: Water Res. 2014 Jan 1;48:579-91
references.pmid: 24183401
references.citation: Water Sci Technol. 2011;63(3):542-9
references.pmid: 21278478
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2005 Aug 1;39(15):5575-83
references.pmid: 16124289
references.citation: Appl Environ Microbiol. 2012 Mar;78(6):1733-45
references.pmid: 22247142
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2013 Jun 18;47(12):6146-54
references.pmid: 23675635
references.citation: Sci Total Environ. 2010 Jul 15;408(16):3096-101
references.pmid: 20546850
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2012 Feb 21;46(4):2204-11
references.pmid: 22257076
references.citation: Water Res. 2012 May 1;46(7):2237-46
references.pmid: 22365370
references.citation: Water Res. 2010 Jul;44(13):3763-72
references.pmid: 20605185
references.citation: Mar Pollut Bull. 2014 Feb 15;79(1-2):114-22
references.pmid: 24393380
references.citation: Appl Environ Microbiol. 2009 Mar;75(6):1517-24
references.pmid: 19151188
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2009 Nov 1;43(21):8046-52
references.pmid: 19924921
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2007 Dec 15;41(24):8227-32
references.pmid: 18200844
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2008 Jul 1;42(13):4818-24
references.pmid: 18678011
references.citation: Environ Sci Technol. 2004 May 1;38(9):2637-48
references.pmid: 15180060