title: Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.
abstract: The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5-7°C between the 1961-1990 reference period and the period 2070-2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe - Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.
authors.affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus ; Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55020 Mainz, Germany ; King Saud University, Riyadh, 11451 Saudi Arabia.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lelieveld
authors.affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Hadjinicolaou
authors.affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus ; University of the Aegean, 81100 Mytilene, Greece.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kostopoulou
authors.affiliation: University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey UK GU2 7XH.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Chenoweth
authors.affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: El Maayar
authors.affiliation: National Observatory of Athens, 15236 Athens, Greece.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Giannakopoulos
authors.affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Hannides
authors.affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Lange
authors.affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus ; Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55020 Mainz, Germany.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tanarhte
authors.affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Tyrlis
authors.affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, P.O. Box 27456, 1645 Nicosia, Cyprus ; Justus-Liebig University of Giessen, 35390 Giessen, Germany ; University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Xoplaki
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