title: Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Climate change and the concurrent change in wildfire events and land use comprehensively affect carbon dynamics in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The purpose of this study was to project the spatial and temporal aspects of carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) under these changes from 2006 to 2050. We selected three emission scenarios and produced simulations with the CENTURY model using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for each scenario. We also incorporated projected land use change and fire occurrence into the carbon accounting.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The three GCMs showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature, but precipitation projections varied among GCMs. Total ecosystem carbon increased steadily from 7,942 gC/m2in 2006 to 10,234 gC/m2in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 53 gC/m2/year. About 56.6% and 27% of the increasing rate was attributed to total live carbon and total soil carbon, respectively. Net Primary Production (NPP) increased slightly from 260 gC/m2/year in 2006 to 310 gC/m2/year in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 1.22 gC/m2/year. Forest clear-cutting and fires resulted in direct carbon removal; however, the rate was low at 2.44 gC/m2/year during 2006-2050. The area of clear-cutting and wildfires in the GYE would account for 10.87% of total forested area during 2006-2050, but the predictive simulations demonstrated different spatial distributions in national forests and national parks.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The GYE is a carbon sink during 2006-2050. The capability of vegetation is almost double that of soil in terms of sequestering extra carbon. Clear-cutting and wildfires in GYE will affect 10.87% of total forested area, but direct carbon removal from clear-cutting and fires is 109.6 gC/m2, which accounts for only 1.2% of the mean ecosystem carbon level of 9,056 gC/m2, and thus is not significant.
authors.affiliation: ASRC Federal InuTeq, Contractor to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, 47914 252nd Street, Sioux Falls, SD 57198 USA.
authors.forename: Shengli
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: USGS EROS Center, 47914 252nd Street, Sioux Falls, SD 57198 USA.
authors.forename: Shuguang
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Contractor to USGS Western Geographic Science Center, 345 Middlefield Rd, Menlo Park, CA 94025 USA.
authors.forename: Jinxun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies (SGT), Inc., Contractor to the USGS EROS Center, Sioux Falls, SD 57198 USA.
authors.forename: Devendra
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Dahal
authors.affiliation: Innovate!, Inc. Contractor to the USGS EROS Center, Sioux Falls, SD 57198 USA.
authors.forename: Claudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Young
authors.affiliation: Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies (SGT), Inc., Contractor to the USGS EROS Center, Sioux Falls, SD 57198 USA.
authors.forename: Brian
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Davis
authors.affiliation: USGS EROS Center, 47914 252nd Street, Sioux Falls, SD 57198 USA.
authors.forename: Terry L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Sohl
authors.affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO USA.
authors.forename: Todd J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Hawbaker
authors.affiliation: Contractor to USGS Western Geographic Science Center, 345 Middlefield Rd, Menlo Park, CA 94025 USA.
authors.forename: Ben
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Sleeter
authors.affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA USA.
authors.forename: Zhiliang
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhu
keywords: Carbon sequestration; Climate change; Land cover and land use; Wildfires; Yellowstone
references.citation: Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2002 Aug 15;360(1797):1705-19
references.pmid: 12460493
references.citation: Ecol Appl. 2010 Jun;20(4):895-902
references.pmid: 20597278
references.citation: Science. 2006 Aug 18;313(5789):940-3
references.pmid: 16825536
references.citation: Nature. 2008 Apr 24;452(7190):987-90
references.pmid: 18432244
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Aug 9;108(32):13165-70
references.pmid: 21788495
references.citation: Ecol Appl. 2013 Jan;23(1):3-20
references.pmid: 23495632
references.citation: Ecol Appl. 2011 Sep;21(6):1902-24
references.pmid: 21939033
references.citation: Glob Chang Biol. 2013 Nov;19(11):3502-15
references.pmid: 23821586