title: Force majeure: Will climate change affect our ability to attain Good Environmental Status for marine biodiversity?
abstract: The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires that Good Environmental Status (GEnS), is achieved for European seas by 2020. These may deviate from GEnS, its 11 Descriptors, targets and baselines, due to endogenic managed pressures (from activities within an area) and externally due to exogenic unmanaged pressures (e.g. climate change). Conceptual models detail the likely or perceived changes expected on marine biodiversity and GEnS Descriptors in the light of climate change. We emphasise that marine management has to accommodate 'shifting baselines' caused by climate change particularly during GEnS monitoring, assessment and management and 'unbounded boundaries' given the migration and dispersal of highly-mobile species. We suggest climate change may prevent GEnS being met, but Member States may rebut legal challenges by claiming that this is outside its control, force majeure or due to 'natural causes' (Article 14 of the MSFD). The analysis is relevant to management of other global seas.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Estuarine & Coastal Studies, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK. Electronic address: Mike.Elliott@hull.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Elliott
authors.affiliation: AZTI-Tecnalia, Marine Research Division, Herrera Kaia, Portualdea s/n, 20110 Pasaia, Spain.
authors.forename: Ángel
authors.initials: Á
authors.lastname: Borja
authors.affiliation: Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK.
authors.forename: Abigail
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: McQuatters-Gollop
authors.affiliation: Institute of Estuarine & Coastal Studies, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK.
authors.forename: Krysia
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mazik
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 OHT, UK.
authors.forename: Silvana
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Birchenough
authors.affiliation: NIVA Denmark Water Research, Winghouse, Ørestads Boulevard 73, 2300 Copenhagen S, Denmark.
authors.forename: Jesper H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Andersen
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 OHT, UK.
authors.forename: Suzanne
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Painting
authors.affiliation: Institut für Hydrobiologie und Fischereiwissenschaft, Olbersweg 24, 22767 Hamburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Myron
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Peck
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D058735:Environmental Policy; D009792:Oceans and Seas
keywords: Climate change; European; Habitat management; Legislation; Marine Strategy Framework Directive; Oceans Acts