title: Downscaled projections of Caribbean coral bleaching that can inform conservation planning.
abstract: Projections of climate change impacts on coral reefs produced at the coarse resolution (~1°) of Global Climate Models (GCMs) have informed debate but have not helped target local management actions. Here, projections of the onset of annual coral bleaching conditions in the Caribbean under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 are produced using an ensemble of 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 models and via dynamical and statistical downscaling. A high-resolution (~11 km) regional ocean model (MOM4.1) is used for the dynamical downscaling. For statistical downscaling, sea surface temperature (SST) means and annual cycles in all the GCMs are replaced with observed data from the ~4-km NOAA Pathfinder SST dataset. Spatial patterns in all three projections are broadly similar; the average year for the onset of annual severe bleaching is 2040-2043 for all projections. However, downscaled projections show many locations where the onset of annual severe bleaching (ASB) varies 10 or more years within a single GCM grid cell. Managers in locations where this applies (e.g., Florida, Turks and Caicos, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic, among others) can identify locations that represent relative albeit temporary refugia. Both downscaled projections are different for the Bahamas compared to the GCM projections. The dynamically downscaled projections suggest an earlier onset of ASB linked to projected changes in regional currents, a feature not resolved in GCMs. This result demonstrates the value of dynamical downscaling for this application and means statistically downscaled projections have to be interpreted with caution. However, aside from west of Andros Island, the projections for the two types of downscaling are mostly aligned; projected onset of ASB is within ±10 years for 72% of the reef locations.
authors.affiliation: NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA.|Cooperative Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA.
authors.forename: Ruben
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3804-1233
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: van Hooidonk
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Excellence «CORAIL» USR 3278 CNRS - EPHE, CRIOBE, Papetoai, Moorea, Polynésie Française.|Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA.
authors.forename: Jeffrey Allen
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Maynard
authors.affiliation: NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA.|Cooperative Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA.
authors.forename: Yanyun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA.|Cooperative Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA.
authors.forename: Sang-Ki
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Lee
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D037421:Anthozoa / Q000502:physiology*; D017691:Caribbean Region; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D057894:Coral Reefs; D062305:Geographic Mapping; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics
keywords: climate change; climate model; coral reefs; dynamical downscaling; refugia; statistical downscaling
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