title: Iranian risk model as a predictive tool for retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is the leading cause of blindness in patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. The gold standard for the detection of DR requires expensive equipment. This study was undertaken to develop a simple and practical scoring system to predict the probability of DR.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 1782 patients who had first-degree relatives with type II diabetes were selected. Eye examinations were performed by an expert ophthalmologist. Biochemical and anthropometric predictors of DR were measured. Logistic regression was used to develop a statistical model that can be used to predict DR. Goodness of fit was examined using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The risk model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination (ROC area=0.76) in the validation sample. Factors associated with DR in our model were duration of diabetes (odds ratio [OR]=2.14, confidence interval [CI] 95%=1.87 to 2.45); glycated hemoglobin (A1C) (OR=1.21, CI 95%=1.13 to 1.30); fasting plasma glucose (OR=1.83, CI 95%=1.28 to 2.62); systolic blood pressure (OR=1.01, CI 95%= 1.00 to 1.02); and proteinuria (OR=1.37, CI 95%=1.01 to 1.85). The only factor that had a protective effect against DR were body mass index and education level (OR=0.95, CI 95%=0.92 to 0.98).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The good performance of our risk model suggests that it may be a useful risk-prediction tool for DR. It consisted of the positive predictors like A1C, diabetes duration, sex (male), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure and proteinuria, as well as negative risk factors like body mass index and education level.
authors.affiliation: Food Security Research Center, Department of Clinical Nutrition, School of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
authors.forename: Fatemeh
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Azizi-Soleiman
authors.affiliation: Food Security Research Center, Department of Community Nutrition, School of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
authors.forename: Motahar
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Heidari-Beni
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Gareth
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Ambler
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Rumana
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Omar
authors.affiliation: Isfahan Endocrine and Metabolism Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
authors.forename: Masoud
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Amini
authors.affiliation: Skin Diseases and Leishmaniasis Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan; Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran. Electronic address: hosseini@hlth.mui.ac.ir.
authors.forename: Sayed-Mohsen
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Hosseini
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001786:Blood Glucose; D001794:Blood Pressure; D015992:Body Mass Index; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications*; D003930:Diabetic Retinopathy / Q000175:diagnosis*; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000378:metabolism; D006801:Humans; D007492:Iran; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011507:Proteinuria / Q000150:complications; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin
keywords: diabetic retinopathy; diabète de type 2; facteurs de risque; risk factors; rétinopathie diabétique; type 2 diabetes