title: Conjuring the ghosts of missing children: a Monte Carlo simulation of reproductive restraint in Tokugawa Japan.
abstract: This article quantifies the frequency of infanticide and abortion in one region of Japan by comparing observed fertility in a sample of 4.9 million person-years (1660-1872) with a Monte Carlo simulation of how many conceptions and births that population should have experienced. The simulation uses empirical values for the determinants of fertility from Eastern Japan itself as well as the best available studies of comparable populations. This procedure reveals that in several decades of the eighteenth century, at least 40% of pregnancies must have ended in either an induced abortion or an infanticide. In addition, the simulation results imply a rapid decline in the incidence of infanticide and abortion during the nineteenth century, when in a reverse fertility transition, this premodern family-planning regime gave way to a new age of large families.
authors.affiliation: Department of History, Yale University, P.O. Box 208324, New Haven, CT, 06520-8324, USA, fabian.drixler@yale.edu.
authors.forename: Fabian F
authors.initials: FF
authors.lastname: Drixler
mesh_terms: D000028:Abortion, Induced / Q000266:history* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D001723:Birth Rate; D003267:Contraception; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D049670:History, 17th Century; D049671:History, 18th Century; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007237:Infanticide / Q000266:history* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D007564:Japan; D008572:Menarche; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors
references.citation: Eugen Q. 1961 Jun;8:81-91
references.pmid: 13713432
references.citation: J Biosoc Sci Suppl. 1985;9:159-73
references.pmid: 3863824
references.citation: Am J Obstet Gynecol. 1968 Sep 1;102(1):122-4
references.pmid: 5691575
references.citation: Popul Index. 1974 Apr;40(2):185-258
references.pmid: 12333625
references.citation: Popul Rep J. 1975 Jul;(4):49-67
references.pmid: 1100455
references.citation: J Fam Hist. 2011;36(2):118-41
references.pmid: 21491797
references.citation: Am J Obstet Gynecol. 1954 Jan;67(1):52-5
references.pmid: 13114287
references.citation: Wien Klin Wochenschr. 1948 Aug 6;60(31):498-503
references.pmid: 18885268
references.citation: Popul Stud (Camb). 1969 Nov;23(3):455-61
references.pmid: 22073960
references.citation: J Anthropol Sci. 2008;86:91-112
references.pmid: 19934470
references.citation: Hum Biol. 2001 Apr;73(2):271-90
references.pmid: 11446429
references.citation: JAMA. 1968 Feb 5;203(6):377-80
references.pmid: 5694118
references.citation: Popul Stud (Camb). 1974 Mar;28(1):127-42
references.pmid: 11630548
references.citation: Popul Index. 1988 Spring;54(1):4-20
references.pmid: 12315189
references.citation: Demography. 2006 Nov;43(4):727-46
references.pmid: 17236544
references.citation: Popul Stud (Camb). 2013 Jul;67(2):171-83
references.pmid: 23470130
references.citation: Hum Biol. 1968 Feb;40(1):69-85
references.pmid: 4868298
references.citation: Popul Stud (Camb). 1966 Mar;19(3):297-310
references.pmid: 22077512
references.citation: Explor Econ Hist. 1978;15(3):269-89
references.pmid: 11614462
references.citation: Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand. 1990;69(3):197-207
references.pmid: 2220340
references.citation: Z Morphol Anthropol. 1983;73(3):323-32
references.pmid: 6687648
references.citation: J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 1987 Apr;64(4):645-50
references.pmid: 3818896
references.citation: J Biosoc Sci. 1989 Jan;21(1):83-100
references.pmid: 2925702
references.citation: IPPF Med Bull. 1982 Apr;16(2):1-3
references.pmid: 12311528
references.citation: Fr Hist Stud. 1978;10(3):461-85
references.pmid: 11614490
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 1982 Apr 29;306(17):1033-5
references.pmid: 7062994
references.citation: Menopause. 2003 Sep-Oct;10(5):399-405
references.pmid: 14501600
references.citation: Clin Endocrinol (Oxf). 1990 Jul;33(1):13-20
references.pmid: 2401092
references.citation: Popul Stud (Camb). 2004;58(1):95-107
references.pmid: 15204265
references.citation: Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1976 Aug 27;194(1114):83-98
references.pmid: 11483
references.citation: J Interdiscip Hist. 1976;6(3):417-45
references.pmid: 11632275
references.citation: Popul Stud (Camb). 1995 Nov;49(3):383-400
references.pmid: 11608957
references.citation: Hum Biol. 1986 Aug;58(4):541-8
references.pmid: 3759055
references.citation: Popul Stud (Camb). 1980 Mar;34(1):143-69
references.pmid: 22077939
references.citation: J Nutr. 1998 Oct;128(10):1672-80
references.pmid: 9772135
references.citation: Jinkogaku Kenkyu. 1991 May;(14):35-47
references.pmid: 12344689
references.citation: Eur J Popul. 1989 Oct;5(2):173-206
references.pmid: 12282393
references.citation: Nihon Sanka Fujinka Gakkai Zasshi. 1995 Sep;47(9):947-52
references.pmid: 7594906
references.citation: Demography. 1987 Aug;24(3):413-30
references.pmid: 3678542
references.citation: Lancet. 1968 Aug 24;2(7565):422-4
references.pmid: 4174155
references.citation: Int J Fertil. 1967 Jan-Mar;12(1 Pt 2):77-126
references.pmid: 5419031
references.citation: Anim Behav. 2000 Apr;59(4):895-896
references.pmid: 10792945
references.citation: Anthropol Anz. 1980 Nov;38(4):297-300
references.pmid: 7469390
references.citation: Public Health Rep (1896). 1962 Oct;77:835-47
references.pmid: 13959550
references.citation: Soc Hist Med. 1993 Apr;6(1):85-99
references.pmid: 11613026
references.citation: Afr J Reprod Health. 2002 Aug;6(2):39-50
references.pmid: 12484341
references.citation: J Jpn Stud. 2001;27(2):295-321
references.pmid: 20039479
references.citation: Biometrics. 1999 Dec;55(4):1005-13
references.pmid: 11315041
references.citation: Late Imp China. 2010;31(2):97-165
references.pmid: 21328808