title: Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity.
abstract: Human activities, especially conversion and degradation of habitats, are causing global biodiversity declines. How local ecological assemblages are responding is less clear--a concern given their importance for many ecosystem functions and services. We analysed a terrestrial assemblage database of unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage to quantify local biodiversity responses to land use and related changes. Here we show that in the worst-affected habitats, these pressures reduce within-sample species richness by an average of 76.5%, total abundance by 39.5% and rarefaction-based richness by 40.3%. We estimate that, globally, these pressures have already slightly reduced average within-sample richness (by 13.6%), total abundance (10.7%) and rarefaction-based richness (8.1%), with changes showing marked spatial variation. Rapid further losses are predicted under a business-as-usual land-use scenario; within-sample richness is projected to fall by a further 3.4% globally by 2100, with losses concentrated in biodiverse but economically poor countries. Strong mitigation can deliver much more positive biodiversity changes (up to a 1.9% average increase) that are less strongly related to countries' socioeconomic status.
authors.affiliation: 1] United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. [2] Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research Cambridge, 21 Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2FB, UK.
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authors.lastname: Newbold
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Lawrence N
authors.initials: LN
authors.lastname: Hudson
authors.affiliation: 1] United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. [2] Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Samantha L L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Hill
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Sara
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Contu
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Igor
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Lysenko
authors.affiliation: United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
authors.forename: Rebecca A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Senior
authors.affiliation: Department of Biosciences, College of Science, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK.
authors.forename: Luca
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Börger
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Dominic J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Bennett
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK. [2] Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Argyrios
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Choimes
authors.affiliation: Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
authors.forename: Ben
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Collen
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Day
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK. [2] Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Adriana
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: De Palma
authors.affiliation: Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal (CONICET-UNC) and FCEFyN, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Casilla de Correo 495, 5000 Córdoba, Argentina.
authors.forename: Sandra
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Díaz
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Susy
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Echeverria-Londoño
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Melanie J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Edgar
authors.affiliation: Deptartment of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, 6997801 Tel Aviv, Israel.
authors.forename: Anat
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Feldman
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Morgan
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Garon
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Michelle L K
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Harrison
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Tamera
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Alhusseini
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Daniel J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Ingram
authors.affiliation: Deptartment of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, 6997801 Tel Aviv, Israel.
authors.forename: Yuval
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Itescu
authors.affiliation: 1] Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans Knöll Straße 10, 07743 Jena, Germany. [2] German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: Jens
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kattge
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Victoria
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Kemp
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Lucinda
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kirkpatrick
authors.affiliation: Landscape Ecology Group, Institute of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Oldenburg, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kleyer
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: David Laginha Pinto
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Correia
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Callum D
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Martin
authors.affiliation: Deptartment of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, 6997801 Tel Aviv, Israel.
authors.forename: Shai
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Meiri
authors.affiliation: Deptartment of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, 6997801 Tel Aviv, Israel.
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Novosolov
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Yuan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Pan
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK. [2] Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Helen R P
authors.initials: HR
authors.lastname: Phillips
authors.affiliation: Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research Cambridge, 21 Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2FB, UK.
authors.forename: Drew W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Purves
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Alexandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Robinson
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Jake
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Simpson
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3RB, UK.
authors.forename: Sean L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Tuck
authors.affiliation: Biology Department, University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire, Eau Claire, Wisconsin 54701, USA.
authors.forename: Evan
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Weiher
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Hannah J
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: White
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Robert M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Ewers
authors.affiliation: Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
authors.forename: Georgina M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Mace
authors.affiliation: 1] United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. [2] School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QG, UK.
authors.forename: Jörn P W
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Scharlemann
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK. [2] Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Andy
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Purvis
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000639:trends; D004463:Ecology / Q000639:trends; D049669:History, 16th Century; D049670:History, 17th Century; D049671:History, 18th Century; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006802:Human Activities; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013045:Species Specificity
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