title: Overdiagnosis: epidemiologic concepts and estimation.
abstract: Overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer was propounded regarding the rapidly increasing incidence in South Korea. Overdiagnosis is defined as 'the detection of cancers that would never have been found were it not for the screening test', and may be an extreme form of lead bias due to indolent cancers, as is inevitable when conducting a cancer screening programme. Because it is solely an epidemiological concept, it can be estimated indirectly by phenomena such as a lack of compensatory drop in post-screening periods, or discrepancies between incidence and mortality. The erstwhile trials for quantifying the overdiagnosis in screening mammography were reviewed in order to secure the data needed to establish its prevalence in South Korea.
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Jeju National University School of Medicine, Jeju, Korea.
authors.forename: Jong-Myon
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Bae
keywords: Cancer screening; Disease progression; Incidence; Mammography; Thyroid neoplasms
references.citation: BMJ. 2013 Feb 26;346:f1064
references.pmid: 23444414
references.citation: Breast Cancer Res. 2010;12(4):R58
references.pmid: 20682042
references.citation: Gynecol Obstet Invest. 2008;65(3):206-11
references.pmid: 18073486
references.citation: Lancet. 2014 Nov 22;384(9957):1848
references.pmid: 25457916
references.citation: Cancer Res Treat. 2014 Apr;46(2):109-23
references.pmid: 24851102
references.citation: JAMA Intern Med. 2014 Mar;174(3):448-54
references.pmid: 24380095
references.citation: BMJ Open. 2014 May 15;4(5):e004990
references.pmid: 24833692
references.citation: Breast Care (Basel). 2011;6(3):199-207
references.pmid: 21779225
references.citation: Breast Cancer Res. 2005;7(5):230-4
references.pmid: 16168145
references.citation: JAMA. 2014 Apr 2;311(13):1327-35
references.pmid: 24691608
references.citation: Br J Cancer. 2008 Oct 7;99(7):1176-8
references.pmid: 18766185
references.citation: Cancer Causes Control. 2010 Feb;21(2):275-82
references.pmid: 19894130
references.citation: BMJ. 2004 Apr 17;328(7445):921-4
references.pmid: 15013948
references.citation: Tidsskr Nor Laegeforen. 2012 Feb 21;132(4):414-7
references.pmid: 22353833
references.citation: Radiology. 2013 Aug;268(2):327-8
references.pmid: 23882095
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 2014 Nov 6;371(19):1765-7
references.pmid: 25372084
references.citation: Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2006 Oct 18;(4):CD001877
references.pmid: 17054145
references.citation: Lancet. 2012 Nov 17;380(9855):1778-86
references.pmid: 23117178
references.citation: Eur J Cancer. 2009 Dec;45(18):3166-71
references.pmid: 19879130
references.citation: Epidemiol Rev. 1992;14:101-30
references.pmid: 1289109
references.citation: BMC Womens Health. 2009 Dec 16;9:34
references.pmid: 20015373
references.citation: Breast Cancer Res. 2006;8(1):202
references.pmid: 16524452
references.citation: Ann Intern Med. 2013 Jun 4;158(11):831-8
references.pmid: 23732716
references.citation: Lancet. 1994 Apr 16;343(8903):979
references.pmid: 7909035
references.citation: Eur J Cancer Prev. 2005 Apr;14 (2):117-28
references.pmid: 15785315
references.citation: Br J Cancer. 2013 Oct 1;109(7):2014-9
references.pmid: 23963144
references.citation: Epidemiol Rev. 2011;33:111-21
references.pmid: 21709144
references.citation: Lancet Oncol. 2007 Dec;8(12):1129-38
references.pmid: 18054882
references.citation: Br J Cancer. 2013 Jun 11;108(11):2205-40
references.pmid: 23744281
references.citation: JAMA. 2013 Jun 26;309(24):2553-4
references.pmid: 23722915
references.citation: Oncologist. 2014 Feb;19(2):113-26
references.pmid: 24536052
references.citation: Int J Epidemiol. 1989 Jun;18(2):295-9
references.pmid: 2788627
references.citation: Nat Rev Cancer. 2003 Apr;3(4):243-52
references.pmid: 12671663
references.citation: J Gen Intern Med. 2014 Sep;29(9):1218-20
references.pmid: 24830739
references.citation: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2007 Aug 1;99(15):1152-61
references.pmid: 17652280
references.citation: Cancer. 2012 Dec 1;118(23):5728-32
references.pmid: 22605639
references.citation: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2002 Jul 3;94(13):981-90
references.pmid: 12096083
references.citation: J Natl Cancer Inst. 2010 May 5;102(9):605-13
references.pmid: 20413742
references.citation: Int J Cancer. 2013 Aug 1;133(3):705-12
references.pmid: 23355313
references.citation: BMJ. 2006 Mar 25;332(7543):689-92
references.pmid: 16517548
references.citation: Int J Epidemiol. 2004 Feb;33(1):43-55
references.pmid: 15075144
references.citation: Eur J Cancer. 2003 Aug;39(12):1746-54
references.pmid: 12888370
references.citation: J Med Screen. 2014 Mar;21(1):24-9
references.pmid: 24446330
references.citation: J Med Screen. 2004;11(1):23-7
references.pmid: 15006110
references.citation: Breast Cancer Res. 2006;8(2):205
references.pmid: 16677422
references.citation: Cancer. 2006 May 1;106(9):1883-90
references.pmid: 16572411
references.citation: Oncologist. 2014 Feb;19(2):103-6
references.pmid: 24536050
references.citation: Am J Epidemiol. 1992 Dec 15;136(12):1423-36
references.pmid: 1288272
references.citation: Lancet Oncol. 2008 Mar;9(3):199-201; author reply 201-2
references.pmid: 18308246
references.citation: J Clin Oncol. 2009 Feb 1;27(4):639-40; author reply 641-2
references.pmid: 19075270
references.citation: Int J Cancer. 2005 Dec 10;117(5):842-7
references.pmid: 15957172
references.citation: JAMA. 2009 Oct 21;302(15):1685-92
references.pmid: 19843904
references.citation: J Med Screen. 2012;19 Suppl 1:42-56
references.pmid: 22972810
references.citation: J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr. 2006;(36):19-25
references.pmid: 17032890
references.citation: Breast Cancer Res. 2006;8(6):R68
references.pmid: 17147789
references.citation: Oncologist. 2014 Feb;19(2):107-12
references.pmid: 24536051
references.citation: Jpn J Clin Oncol. 2014 Jul;44(7):613-8
references.pmid: 24821976
references.citation: J Med Screen. 2012 Mar;19(1):14-9
references.pmid: 22355181
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 2012 Nov 22;367 (21):1998-2005
references.pmid: 23171096
references.citation: J Gen Intern Med. 2014 Sep;29(9):1283-6
references.pmid: 24590736
references.citation: JAMA Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg. 2014 Apr;140(4):317-22
references.pmid: 24557566
references.citation: Radiologia. 2015 May-Jun;57(3):188-92
references.pmid: 25174786
references.citation: Future Oncol. 2009 May;5(4):481-91
references.pmid: 19450177
references.citation: Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2014 Jan 28;(1):CD001431
references.pmid: 24470076
references.citation: Int J Cancer. 2013 Dec 1;133(11):2511
references.pmid: 23716268
references.citation: Arch Intern Med. 2008 Nov 24;168(21):2311-6
references.pmid: 19029493
references.citation: BMJ. 2009 Jul 09;339:b2587
references.pmid: 19589821
references.citation: Tumori. 2010 Mar-Apr;96(2):198-201
references.pmid: 20572574
references.citation: Breast Cancer Res. 2012 Jan 09;14 (1):R9
references.pmid: 22230345
references.citation: BMJ. 2011 Nov 23;343 :d7017
references.pmid: 22113564
references.citation: Breast Cancer Res. 2005;7(6):266-70
references.pmid: 16457702
references.citation: Breast J. 2006 Jul-Aug;12(4):338-42
references.pmid: 16848843
references.citation: Ann Intern Med. 2009 Nov 17;151(10):738-47
references.pmid: 19920274
references.citation: J Med Screen. 2010;17(1):25-30
references.pmid: 20356942
references.citation: Nat Clin Pract Oncol. 2008 Jun;5(6):314-5
references.pmid: 18414462
references.citation: BMC Womens Health. 2009 Dec 22;9:36
references.pmid: 20028513
references.citation: Lancet Oncol. 2014 May;15(6):e234-42
references.pmid: 24807866
references.citation: Breast Cancer Res. 2005;7(5):228-9
references.pmid: 16168144
references.citation: J Surg Oncol. 1982 Jan;19(1):22-4
references.pmid: 7057640
references.citation: Dtsch Arztebl Int. 2012 Nov;109 (46):781-7
references.pmid: 23264826
references.citation: BMC Cancer. 2011 Sep 21;11:401
references.pmid: 21936933
references.citation: Med Oncol. 2013 Jun;30(2):471
references.pmid: 23420062
references.citation: Breast Cancer Res. 2012 Nov 29;14 (6):R152
references.pmid: 23194032
references.citation: Breast Cancer Res. 2013 May 16;15(3):R41
references.pmid: 23680223