title: Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM.
abstract: The impacts of climate change on Po River discharges are investigated through a set of climate, hydrological, water-balance simulations continuous in space and time. Precipitation and 2m mean temperature fields from climate projections under two different representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, have been used to drive the hydrological model. Climate projections are obtained nesting the regional climate model COSMO-CLM into the global climate model CMCC-CM. The bias in climate projections is corrected applying the distribution derived quantile mapping. The persistence of climate signal in precipitation and temperature after the bias correction is assessed in terms of climate anomaly for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods versus 1982-2011. To account for the overall uncertainty of emission scenarios, climate models and bias correction, the hydrological/water balance simulations are carried out using both raw and bias corrected climate datasets. Results show that under both RCPs, either considering raw and bias corrected climate datasets, temperature is expected to increase on the whole Po River basin and in all the seasons; the most significant changes in precipitation and discharges occur in summer, when the reduction of precipitation leads to an increase in low flow duration and occurrence likelihood, and in autumn and winter where precipitation shows a positive variation increasing the high flows frequency.
authors: Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC-REMHI), via Maiorise snc, I-81043 Capua, (CE), Italy. Electronic address: renata.vezzoli@cmcc.it.
authors: R
authors: R
authors: Vezzoli
authors: Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC-REMHI), via Maiorise snc, I-81043 Capua, (CE), Italy; Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory, Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA), via Maiorise snc, I-81043 Capua, (CE), Italy. Electronic address: p.mercogliano@cira.it.
authors: P
authors: P
authors: Mercogliano
authors: ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service, Hydrology Area (ARPA SIMC), Via Garibaldi, 75, I-43121 Parma, (PR), Italy. Electronic address: specora@arpa.emr.it.
authors: S
authors: S
authors: Pecora
authors: Regional Models and geo-Hydrological Impacts Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC-REMHI), via Maiorise snc, I-81043 Capua, (CE), Italy; Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory, Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA), via Maiorise snc, I-81043 Capua, (CE), Italy. Electronic address: a.zollo@cira.it.
authors: A L
authors: AL
authors: Zollo
authors: ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service (ARPA SIMC), Viale Silvani, 6, I-40122 Bologna, (BO), Italy. Electronic address: ccacciamani@arpa.emr.it.
authors: C
authors: C
authors: Cacciamani
keywords: Bias correction; Climate projections; Hydrological modelling; Po River basin; Regional climate model; Water availability