title: Predicting the potential distribution of the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in East and Southeast Asia.
abstract: Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is the pathogen responsible for chytridiomycosis, a disease that is associated with a worldwide amphibian population decline. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia based on limited occurrence data. Our goal was to design an effective survey area where efforts to detect the pathogen can be focused. We generated ecological niche models using the maximum-entropy approach, with alleviation of multicollinearity and spatial autocorrelation. We applied eigenvector-based spatial filters as independent variables, in addition to environmental variables, to resolve spatial autocorrelation, and compared the model's accuracy and the degree of spatial autocorrelation with those of a model estimated using only environmental variables. We were able to identify areas of high suitability for Bd with accuracy. Among the environmental variables, factors related to temperature and precipitation were more effective in predicting the potential distribution of Bd than factors related to land use and cover type. Our study successfully predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia. This information should now be used to prioritize survey areas and generate a surveillance program to detect the pathogen.
authors: Invasive Alien Species Research Team, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan.
authors: Sachiko
authors: S
authors: Moriguchi
authors: Atsushi
authors: A
authors: Tominaga
authors: Kelly J
authors: KJ
authors: Irwin
authors: Michael J
authors: MJ
authors: Freake
authors: Kazutaka
authors: K
authors: Suzuki
authors: Koichi
authors: K
authors: Goka
mesh_terms: D000663:Amphibians / Q000382:microbiology*; D000818:Animals; D001208:Asia / Q000453:epidemiology; D008411:Chytridiomycota; D062305:Geographic Mapping; D009181:Mycoses / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000662:veterinary*