title: [Prospects of occupational risk evaluation via modelling methods].
abstract: The article represents methodic approaches that enable quantitative evaluation of worker's health risk, forecast of changes in health state. Models application proved that integral risk of health disorders in workers exposed to occupational factors becomes unacceptable by the age of 45 years, without exposure to the factors - by 54 years. At work under existing levels of exposure to occupational factors, cardiovascular risk increases with length of service, and by 5 years of service, number of additional occupational cases in a studied group of workers approaches 11 per year. Solving effectively problems of health risk evaluation, evolution models consider specific conditions of workplaces contamination and describe influence of variable factors within work conditions on risk of various health disorders in dependence on length of service and exposure duration. Methodic approaches to health risk evaluation, based on evolution models of hazardous effects development under exposure to working environment factors, enable to follow dynamics of these effects development on background of natural ageing and to forecast health state of human and population under multi-factorial, multi-exposure load.
authors: P Z
authors: PZ
authors: Shur
authors: D M
authors: DM
authors: Shliapnikov
authors: V B
authors: VB
authors: Alekseev
authors: V M
authors: VM
authors: Chigvintsev
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009784:Occupational Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012308:Risk Management / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*