title: Mathematical modelling in tobacco control research: protocol for a systematic review.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Tobacco control researchers have recently become more interested in systems science methods and mathematical modelling techniques as a means to understand how complex inter-relationships among various factors translate into population-level summaries of tobacco use prevalence and its associated medical and social costs. However, there is currently no resource that provides an overview of how mathematical modelling has been used in tobacco control research. This review will provide a summary of studies that employ modelling techniques to predict tobacco-related outcomes. It will also propose a conceptual framework for grouping existing modelling studies by their objectives.
  
  
  METHODS
  We will conduct a systematic review that is informed by Cochrane procedures, as well as guidelines developed for reviews that are specifically intended to inform policy and programme decision-making. We will search 5 electronic databases to identify studies that use a mathematical model to project a tobacco-related outcome. An online data extraction form will be developed based on the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices. We will perform a qualitative synthesis of included studies.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Ethical approval is not required for this study. An initial paper, published in a peer-reviewed journal, will provide an overview of our findings. Subsequent papers will provide greater detail on results within each study objective category and an assessment of the risk of bias of these grouped studies.
authors: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington DC, USA Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
authors: Shari
authors: S
authors: Feirman
authors: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington DC, USA Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
authors: Elisabeth
authors: E
authors: Donaldson
authors: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington DC, USA Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
authors: Jennifer
authors: J
authors: Pearson
authors: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington DC, USA The George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health.
authors: Grace
authors: G
authors: Zawistowski
authors: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington DC, USA Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington DC, USA.
authors: Ray
authors: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0856-3540
authors: R
authors: Niaura
authors: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington DC, USA.
authors: Allison
authors: A
authors: Glasser
authors: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington DC, USA Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
authors: Andrea C
authors: AC
authors: Villanti
mesh_terms: D003657:Decision Making; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D019317:Evidence-Based Medicine; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011050:Policy Making; D036301:Qualitative Research; D012107:Research Design; D000078202:Systematic Reviews as Topic; D014029:Tobacco Use Disorder / Q000517:prevention & control*
keywords: HEALTH ECONOMICS; PUBLIC HEALTH; STATISTICS & RESEARCH METHODS