title: [Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios].
abstract: The sizes and number of cities in China are increasing rapidly and complicated changes of urban land use system have occurred as the social economy develops rapidly. This study took the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta Region as the study area to explore the driving mechanism of dynamic changes of urban area in the urbanization process under the joint influence of natural environment and social economic conditions. Then the CA (cellular automata) model was used to predict and simulate the urban area changes until 2030 under the designed scenarios of planning and RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The results indicated that urbanization was mainly driven by the non-agricultural population growth and social-economic development, and the transportation had played a fundamental role in the whole process, while the areas with high elevation or steep slope restricted the urbanization. Besides, the urban area would keep an expanding trend regardless of the scenarios, however, the expanding speed would slow down with different inflection points under different scenarios. The urban expansion speed increased in the sequence of the planning scenario, MESSAGE scenario and AIM scenario, and that under the MESSAGE climate scenario was more consistent with the current urban development trend. In addition, the urban expansion would mainly concentrate in regions with the relatively high urbanization level, e.g., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Chaoshan.
authors: Oun-ou
authors: OO
authors: Jiang
authors: Xiang-zheng
authors: XZ
authors: Deng
authors: Xin-li
authors: XL
authors: Ke
authors: Chun-hong
authors: CH
authors: Zhao
authors: Wei
authors: W
authors: Zhang
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D002947:Cities; D002980:Climate; D057217:Economic Development; D004777:Environment; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011158:Population Growth; D045483:Rivers; D014507:Urbanization