title: [Prediction of epidemic tendency of schistosomiasis with time-series model in Hubei Province].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To study the endemic trend of schistosomiasis japonica in Hubei Province, so as to provide the theoretical basis for surveillance and forecasting of schistosomiasis.
  
  
  METHODS
  The time-series auto regression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to fit the infection rate of residents of Hubei Province from 1987 to 2013, and to predict the short-term trend of infection rate.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The actual values of infection rate of residents were all in the 95% confidence internals of value predicted by the ARIMA model. The prediction showed that the infection rate of residents of Hubei Province would continue to decrease slowly.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The time-series ARIMA model has good prediction accuracy, and could be used for the short-term forecasting of schistosomiasis.
authors: Yan-Yan
authors: YY
authors: Chen
authors: Shun-Xiang
authors: SX
authors: Cai
authors: Ying
authors: Y
authors: Xiao
authors: Yong
authors: Y
authors: Jiang
authors: Xiao-Wei
authors: XW
authors: Shan
authors: Juan
authors: J
authors: Zhang
authors: Jian-Bing
authors: JB
authors: Liu
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D058872:Epidemics; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012554:Schistosomiasis japonica / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013997:Time Factors