title: Transferability and generalizability of regression models of ultrafine particles in urban neighborhoods in the Boston area.
abstract: Land use regression (LUR) models have been used to assess air pollutant exposure, but limited evidence exists on whether location-specific LUR models are applicable to other locations (transferability) or general models are applicable to smaller areas (generalizability). We tested transferability and generalizability of spatial-temporal LUR models of hourly particle number concentration (PNC) for Boston-area (MA, U.S.A.) urban neighborhoods near Interstate 93. Four neighborhood-specific regression models and one Boston-area model were developed from mobile monitoring measurements (34-46 days/neighborhood over one year each). Transferability was tested by applying each neighborhood-specific model to the other neighborhoods; generalizability was tested by applying the Boston-area model to each neighborhood. Both the transferability and generalizability of models were tested with and without neighborhood-specific calibration. Important PNC predictors (adjusted-R(2) = 0.24-0.43) included wind speed and direction, temperature, highway traffic volume, and distance from the highway edge. Direct model transferability was poor (R(2) < 0.17). Locally-calibrated transferred models (R(2) = 0.19-0.40) and the Boston-area model (adjusted-R(2) = 0.26, range: 0.13-0.30) performed similarly to neighborhood-specific models; however, some coefficients of locally calibrated transferred models were uninterpretable. Our results show that transferability of neighborhood-specific LUR models of hourly PNC was limited, but that a general model performed acceptably in multiple areas when calibrated with local data.
authors: †Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, 200 College Avenue, Medford, Massachusetts 02155, United States.
authors: Allison P
authors: AP
authors: Patton
authors: ‡Somerville Transportation Equity Partnership, Somerville, Massachusetts 02143, United States.
authors: Wig
authors: W
authors: Zamore
authors: †Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, 200 College Avenue, Medford, Massachusetts 02155, United States.|∥Public Health and Community Medicine, Tufts University, 136 Harrison Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02111, United States.
authors: Elena N
authors: EN
authors: Naumova
authors: §Boston University School of Public Health, 715 Albany Street, Boston, Massachusetts 02118, United States.
authors: Jonathan I
authors: JI
authors: Levy
authors: ∥Public Health and Community Medicine, Tufts University, 136 Harrison Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02111, United States.
authors: Doug
authors: D
authors: Brugge
authors: †Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, 200 College Avenue, Medford, Massachusetts 02155, United States.
authors: John L
authors: JL
authors: Durant
mesh_terms: D000392:Air Movements; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis*; D001900:Boston; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D052638:Particulate Matter