title: MELD score for prediction of survival after emergent TIPS for acute variceal hemorrhage: derivation and validation in a 101-patient cohort.
abstract: BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY: The Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has not been derived and validated for the emergent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) population. We sought to identify predictive factors for survival among emergent TIPS patients, and to substantiate MELD for outcomes prognostication in this population.
  
  
  RESULTS
  101 patients with acute life threatening variceal hemorrhage underwent emergent TIPS (defined by failed endoscopic therapy for active bleeding, acute hemoglobin drop, ≥ 2-unit transfusion requirement, and/or vasopressor need) at between 1998-2013. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and procedure parameters were analyzed for correlation with mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression to derive the prognostic value of MELD constituents. Area under receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curves was used to assess the capability of MELD prediction of mortality. TIPS were created 119 ± 167 h after initial bleeding events. Hemodynamic success was achieved in 90%. Median final portosystemic pressure gradient was 8 mmHg. Variceal rebleeding incidence was 21%. The four original MELD components showed significant correlation with mortality on multivariate Cox regression: baseline bilirubin (regression coefficient 0.366), creatinine (0.621), international normalized ratio (1.111), and liver disease etiology (0.808), validating the MELD system for emergent cases. No other significant predictive parameters were identified. MELD was an excellent predictor of 90-day mortality in the emergent TIPS population (AUROC = 0.842, 95% CI 0.755-0.928).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Based on independent derivation of prognostic constituents and confirmation of predictive accuracy, MELD is a valid and reliable metric for risk stratification and survival projection after emergent TIPS.
authors: University of Illinois College of Medicine.
authors: Leigh C
authors: LC
authors: Casadaban
authors: University of Illinois College of Medicine.
authors: Ahmad
authors: A
authors: Parvinian
authors: University of Illinois Hospital and Health Sciences System, Department of Radiology, Division of Interventional Radiology.
authors: Sean P
authors: SP
authors: Zivin
authors: University of Illinois College of Medicine.
authors: Janesh
authors: J
authors: Lakhoo
authors: University of Illinois Hospital and Health Sciences System, Department of Radiology, Division of Interventional Radiology.
authors: Jeet
authors: J
authors: Minocha
authors: University of Illinois Hospital and Health Sciences System, Department of Radiology, Division of Interventional Radiology.
authors: M Grace
authors: MG
authors: Knuttinen
authors: University of Illinois Hospital and Health Sciences System, Department of Radiology, Division of Interventional Radiology.
authors: Charles E
authors: CE
authors: Ray
authors: University of Illinois Hospital and Health Sciences System, Department of Radiology, Division of Interventional Radiology.
authors: James T
authors: JT
authors: Bui
authors: University of Illinois Hospital and Health Sciences System, Department of Radiology, Division of Interventional Radiology.
authors: Ron C
authors: RC
authors: Gaba
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D004630:Emergencies; D058625:End Stage Liver Disease / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality*; D004932:Esophageal and Gastric Varices / Q000150:complications / Q000601:surgery*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006471:Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage / Q000209:etiology / Q000601:surgery*; D006801:Humans; D007087:Illinois / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D019168:Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends