title: Infectious disease modeling methods as tools for informing response to novel influenza viruses of unknown pandemic potential.
abstract: The rising importance of infectious disease modeling makes this an appropriate time for a guide for public health practitioners tasked with preparing for, and responding to, an influenza pandemic. We list several questions that public health practitioners commonly ask about pandemic influenza and match these with analytical methods, giving details on when during a pandemic the methods can be used, how long it might take to implement them, and what data are required. Although software to perform these tasks is available, care needs to be taken to understand: (1) the type of data needed, (2) the implementation of the methods, and (3) the interpretation of results in terms of model uncertainty and sensitivity. Public health leaders can use this article to evaluate the modeling literature, determine which methods can provide appropriate evidence for decision-making, and to help them request modeling work from in-house teams or academic groups.
authors: Epidemiological Modelling Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia Modeling Unit, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) IHRC Inc.
authors: Manoj
authors: M
authors: Gambhir
authors: Graduate Program in Epidemiology and Molecules to Mankind, Laney Graduate School, Emory University.
authors: Catherine
authors: C
authors: Bozio
authors: Modeling Unit, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) IHRC Inc.
authors: Justin J
authors: JJ
authors: O'Hagan
authors: Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases.
authors: Amra
authors: A
authors: Uzicanin
authors: Influenza Division.
authors: Lucinda E
authors: LE
authors: Johnson
authors: Influenza Division.
authors: Matthew
authors: M
authors: Biggerstaff
authors: Modeling Unit and Office of the Director, NCIRD, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors: David L
authors: DL
authors: Swerdlow
mesh_terms: D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004189:Disaster Planning / Q000379:methods*; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009975:Orthomyxoviridae / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D058873:Pandemics; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology