title: HATCH score in the prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation of typical atrial flutter.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  New-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) is not uncommon after ablation of typical atrial flutter (AFL); however, limited data are available for a risk prediction model for the future occurrence of AF in patients with typical AFL undergoing successful catheter ablation.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  This study aimed to determine whether the HATCH score (which is based on hypertension, age ≥75 years, transient ischemic attack or stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and heart failure) is useful for risk prediction of subsequent AF after ablation of typical AFL.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 216 consecutive patients presenting with typical AFL and no history of AF who underwent successful catheter ablation were enrolled in the study. The clinical endpoint was occurrence of new-onset AF during follow-up after ablation.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During a follow-up period of 29.1 ± 18.3 months, 85 patients (39%) experienced at least 1 episode of AF. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that the HATCH score (hazard ratio 1.784; 95% confidence interval 1.352-2.324; P < .001) and left atrial diameter (hazard ratio 1.270; 95% confidence interval 1.115-1.426; P < .001) were independently associated with new-onset AF after typical AFL ablation. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve based on the HATCH score for prediction of new-onset AF was 0.743. The HATCH score could be used to stratify the patients into 2 groups with different incidences of new-onset AF (69% vs 27%, P < .001) at a cutoff value of 2.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The HATCH score is a useful predictor of new-onset AF after typical AFL ablation.
authors: Department of Cardiology, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Henan, China; Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors: Ke
authors: K
authors: Chen
authors: Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors: Rong
authors: R
authors: Bai
authors: Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors: Wenning
authors: W
authors: Deng
authors: Department of Cardiology, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Henan, China.
authors: Chuanyu
authors: C
authors: Gao
authors: Department of Cardiology, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Henan, China.
authors: Jing
authors: J
authors: Zhang
authors: Department of Cardiology, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Henan, China.
authors: Xianqing
authors: X
authors: Wang
authors: Department of Cardiology, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Henan, China.
authors: Shunbao
authors: S
authors: Wang
authors: Department of Cardiology, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Henan, China.
authors: Haixia
authors: H
authors: Fu
authors: Department of Cardiology, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Henan, China.
authors: Yonghui
authors: Y
authors: Zhao
authors: Department of Cardiology, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou University, Henan, China. Electronic address: jy_zhang12@126.com.
authors: Jiaying
authors: J
authors: Zhang
authors: Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors: Jianzeng
authors: J
authors: Dong
authors: Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors: Changsheng
authors: C
authors: Ma
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D001282:Atrial Flutter / Q000601:surgery*; D017115:Catheter Ablation / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000379:methods; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004452:Echocardiography / Q000379:methods; D015716:Electrocardiography, Ambulatory; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006325:Heart Atria / Q000473:pathology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009929:Organ Size; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012107:Research Design; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: Atrial fibrillation; Atrial flutter; Catheter ablation