title: Evaluation of the transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease in Japan.
abstract: The transmission risk of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Japan was evaluated using a mathematical FMD transmission model. The distance-based transmission rate between farms, which was parameterized using the FMD epidemic data in 2010 in Japan, was used to calculate the local-level reproduction numbers-expected numbers of secondary infections caused by one infected farm-for all cattle and pig farms in the country, which were then visualized as a risk map. The risk map demonstrated the spatial heterogeneity of transmission risk in the country and identified risk areas with higher possibility of disease spread. This result suggests that, particularly in high-risk areas, it is important to prepare for the smooth and efficient implementation of control measures against FMD outbreaks.
authors: Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856, Japan.
authors: Yoko
authors: Y
authors: Hayama
authors: Takehisa
authors: T
authors: Yamamoto
authors: Sota
authors: S
authors: Kobayashi
authors: Norihiko
authors: N
authors: Muroga
authors: Toshiyuki
authors: T
authors: Tsutsui
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000635:transmission; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D007564:Japan; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000635:transmission