title: Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change.
abstract: Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.
authors: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, DAPA program, Cali, Colombia.
authors: Oriana
authors: O
authors: Ovalle-Rivera
authors: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, DAPA program, Cali, Colombia.
authors: Peter
authors: P
authors: Läderach
authors: Humboldt-University of Berlin, Faculty of Agriculture and Horticulture, Berlin, Germany.
authors: Christian
authors: C
authors: Bunn
authors: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, ESM program, Laxenburg, Austria.
authors: Michael
authors: M
authors: Obersteiner
authors: C.P. 513, 68109-971 Santarém, Pará, Brazil.
authors: Götz
authors: G
authors: Schroth
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D057231:Climate Change; D040503:Coffea / Q000254:growth & development*; D017753:Ecosystem