title: Development of a preliminary nomogram to predict progression of bone scan for castration-resistant prostate cancer.
abstract: The optimal time to perform bone scan to detect new metastasis during the castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) stage remains undefined. This study attempted to identify predictors of progression of bone scan for CRPC, and use such information to develop a nomogram to predict the optimal time of examinations for bone scan. The analysis included 167 CRPC patients. Progression of bone lesion, as evaluated by bone scan, occurred in 64 (38.3%) cases. A logistic regression identified the following three risk factors: short time to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression, severe pain, and short PSA doubling time (PSADT) (P<0.05 for all). A nomogram model was constructed to predict progression of bone scan using time to PSA progression and severe pain as dichotomized variables and PSADT as a continuous variable. The result indicated that a predictive nomogram model showed a bootstrap-corrected concordance index of 0.762 and good calibration using the three readily available variables, and there were worse prognosis and higher progression rate of bone scan for patients with time to PSA progression <6.6 months, severe pain, and short PSADT (<2 months). In conclusion, short time to PSA progression, severe pain, and short PSADT are three risk factors of progression of bone scan for CRPC patients. The predictive nomogram model may be a valuable numerical assessment tool for patient consultation and treatment decision.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China ; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Guo-Wen
authors.initials: GW
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China ; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Ding-Wei
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Ye
authors.affiliation: Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China ; Department of Clinical Statistics Center, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Hui-Xun
authors.initials: HX
authors.lastname: Jia
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China ; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Bo
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Dai
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China ; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Hai-Liang
authors.initials: HL
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China ; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Yao
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China ; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Guo-Hai
authors.initials: GH
authors.lastname: Shi
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China ; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Chun-Guang
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Ma
keywords: bone scan; castration-resistant prostate cancer; nomogram; predictor; progression