title: Detecting unforgiving roadside contributors through the severity analysis of ran-off-road crashes.
abstract: The objective of this paper is to study the contributors influencing ran-off-road (ROR) crash severities in a setting that has not been analysed in the literature, namely on freeways not designed according to the "forgiving roadside" concept. To accomplish the analysis, ROR crash data were collected on freeway road sections in Portugal and multinomial and mixed logit models were estimated using the driver injury and the most severely injured occupant as outcome variables. Our results are in line with previous findings reported in the literature on ROR crash severity in a number of distinct settings. Most importantly, this study shows the contribution of critical slopes and vehicle rollover towards fatal injuries and highlights the importance of introducing the "forgiving roadside" concept to mitigate ROR crash severity in Portuguese freeways. The study also indicates the importance of protecting errant vehicles particularly in horizontal curves, as these are linked with fatalities. Finally, the empirical findings from the developed models revealed problems in current Portuguese roadside design, especially with regards to criteria for forgiving slopes provision and warrants for safety barrier installation.
authors.affiliation: Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Departamento de Transportes, Núcleo de Planeamento, Tráfego e Segurança, Av do Brasil 101, 1700-066 Lisboa, Portugal. Electronic address: croque@lnec.pt.
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Roque
authors.affiliation: CESUR/DECIVIL, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal.
authors.forename: Filipe
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Moura
authors.affiliation: Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil, Departamento de Transportes, Núcleo de Planeamento, Tráfego e Segurança, Av do Brasil 101, 1700-066 Lisboa, Portugal.
authors.forename: João
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lourenço Cardoso
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D004779:Environment Design / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011174:Portugal / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D012449:Safety; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Crash severity models; Forgiving roadside; Mixed logit; Multinomial logit; Portuguese freeways; Ran-off-road crash