title: Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil-mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study.
abstract: Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being.
authors.affiliation: Landcare Research, PO Box 69040, Lincoln, 7640, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Kate H
authors.initials: KH
authors.lastname: Orwin
authors.affiliation: Landcare Research, Hamilton, 3240, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Bryan A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Stevenson
authors.affiliation: Scion, Forestry Rd, Christchurch, 8041, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Simeon J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Smaill
authors.affiliation: Landcare Research, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Miko U F
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5451-116X
authors.initials: MU
authors.lastname: Kirschbaum
authors.affiliation: Landcare Research, PO Box 69040, Lincoln, 7640, New Zealand.|Bio-Protection Research Centre, Lincoln University, Lincoln, 7647, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Ian A
authors.initials: IA
authors.lastname: Dickie
authors.affiliation: Plant & Food Research, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Brent E
authors.initials: BE
authors.lastname: Clothier
authors.affiliation: Scion, Rotorua, 3046, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Loretta G
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Garrett
authors.affiliation: AgResearch, Mosgiel 9053, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Tony J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: van der Weerden
authors.affiliation: Plant & Food Research, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Michael H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Beare
authors.affiliation: Plant & Food Research, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Denis
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Curtin
authors.affiliation: AgResearch, Mosgiel 9053, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Cecile A M
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: de Klein
authors.affiliation: AgResearch, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Michael B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Dodd
authors.affiliation: Plant & Food Research, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Roberta
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Gentile
authors.affiliation: Landcare Research, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Carolyn
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Hedley
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Wellington, 6241, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Brett
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Mullan
authors.affiliation: AgResearch, Hamilton, 3240, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Shepherd
authors.affiliation: AgResearch, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Steven A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Wakelin
authors.affiliation: AgResearch, Hamilton, 3240, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Nigel
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Bell
authors.affiliation: AgResearch, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Saman
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bowatte
authors.affiliation: Scion, Forestry Rd, Christchurch, 8041, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Murray R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Davis
authors.affiliation: AgResearch, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Estelle
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Dominati
authors.affiliation: AgResearch, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Maureen
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: O'Callaghan
authors.affiliation: Landcare Research, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Roger L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Parfitt
authors.affiliation: Plant & Food Research, Christchurch, 8140, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Steve M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Thomas
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D009520:New Zealand; D012987:Soil
chemical_list: D012987:Soil
keywords: carbon regulation; cropping; extensive grazing; intensive grazing; nutrient regulation; plantation forestry; provisioning services; water regulation