title: Correlation between mean body mass index in the population and prevalence of obesity in Brazilian capitals: empirical evidence for a population-based approach of obesity.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between mean body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of obesity in adult populations living in Brazilian State capitals.
  
  
  METHODS
  An ecological study was conducted, using data from the National Household Budget Survey conducted in July 2002 through June 2003, including a representative sample of 48.470 households. Pearson's correlation and linear regression coefficients were estimated in order to define the relationships of mean BMI and sex-specific, age standardized obesity prevalence (BMI ≥ 30.0 kg/m(2)) in adults aged 20 to 59 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Stronger correlations between BMI and prevalence of obesity were observed in women (r = 0.9; p < 0.001) than in men (r = 0.6; p = 0.001) in all analyzes. A reduction of one unit in mean BMI predicted a decline in the prevalence of obesity of about 4.0% (95% CI: 1.7-6.3) in men, and 3.4% (95% CI: 2.6-4.3) in women.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We found a correlation between BMI and prevalence of obesity, particularly among women, suggesting that population-based strategies would be effective to reduce the prevalence of obesity in adult populations living in Brazilian state capitals.
authors.affiliation: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro - Institute of Public Health, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. jackie.lobato@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Jackeline Christiane Pinto
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Lobato
authors.affiliation: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro - Institute of Public Health, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. pkale@iesc.ufrj.br.
authors.forename: Pauline Lorena
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Kale
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Fluminense Federal University, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. guilleco@terra.com.br.
authors.forename: Luis Guillermo Coca
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Velarde
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA. mszklo1@jhu.edu.
authors.forename: Moyses
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Szklo
authors.affiliation: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro - Institute of Public Health, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. ajcosta@iesc.ufrj.br.
authors.forename: Antonio José Leal
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Costa
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D015992:Body Mass Index; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D036262:Empirical Research; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011159:Population Surveillance; D015995:Prevalence; D014504:Urban Health; D055815:Young Adult