title: Cost of illness of the cervical cancer of the uterus in Japan--a time trend and future projections.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Cervical cancer is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates among young women in Japan. The objective of this study was to assess and project the economic burden associated with cervical cancer in Japan and identify factors affecting future changes in this burden on society.
  
  
  METHODS
  Utilizing government-based statistical nationwide data, we used the cost of illness (COI) method to estimate the COIs for 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2011 to make predictions for 2014, 2017, and 2020. The COI comprised direct and indirect costs (morbidity and mortality costs).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The COI was estimated to have increased by 66% from 96.1 billion yen in 1996 to 159.9 billion yen in 2011. The number of deaths increased, but the proportion of those aged ≥65 years as a percentage of all deaths remained mostly unchanged, with no increase in the average age at death. The mortality cost per person was estimated to have increased (31.5 million yen in 1996 vs. 43.5 million yen in 2011). Assuming that the current trend in health-related indicators continues, the COI is predicted to temporarily decrease in 2014, followed by almost no change in 2020 (the estimated COI is 145.3-164.6 billion yen). The mortality cost per person is predicted to remain almost unchanged (39.4-46.3 million yen in 2020).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The fact that the life expectancy of affected individuals is not being prolonged and that the mortality in young individuals with a high human capital value is not decreasing may contribute to future sustainment of the COI. We believe that the results of the present study are applicable to discussions of disease control priorities.
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Toho University Omori Medical Center, 6-11-1 Omori-nishi, Ota-ku, Tokyo, 143-8541, Japan. e_hayata@hotmail.com.
authors.forename: Eijiro
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Hayata
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Medicine, Toho University School of Medicine, 5-21-16 Omori-nishi, Ota-ku, Tokyo, 143-8540, Japan. setokana@med.toho-u.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Kanako
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Seto
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Medicine, Toho University School of Medicine, 5-21-16 Omori-nishi, Ota-ku, Tokyo, 143-8540, Japan. k-haga-t@med.toho-u.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Kayoko
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Haga
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Medicine, Toho University School of Medicine, 5-21-16 Omori-nishi, Ota-ku, Tokyo, 143-8540, Japan. kitazawa@med.toho-u.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Takefumi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kitazawa
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Medicine, Toho University School of Medicine, 5-21-16 Omori-nishi, Ota-ku, Tokyo, 143-8540, Japan. rakchart@med.toho-u.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Kunichika
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Matsumoto
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Toho University Omori Medical Center, 6-11-1 Omori-nishi, Ota-ku, Tokyo, 143-8541, Japan. mmorita@med.toho-u.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Mineto
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Morita
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Medicine, Toho University School of Medicine, 5-21-16 Omori-nishi, Ota-ku, Tokyo, 143-8540, Japan. tommie@med.toho-u.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Tomonori
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hasegawa
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D017281:Cost of Illness; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends*; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D002583:Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality*