title: The Role of Outcome Forecasts in Patients' Treatment Decisions--Evidence from a Survey Experiment on Knee Replacement Surgery.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To analyze the effect of personalized outcome probabilities on treatment decisions.
  
  
  METHODS
  American Life Panel.
  
  
  METHODS
  We designed an experimental survey that respondents answered by recommending replacement surgery for hypothetical patients diagnosed with knee osteoarthritis. The primary manipulation was whether respondents were given personalized outcome probabilities for the patients.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Patient-specific outcome forecasts significantly influenced decisions, with effect sizes comparable to those of physicians' opinions and patient testimonials. The presentation format also affected the probabilities' influence on choices. We did not find evidence that the educational level of subjects affected the weight that they give to outcome probabilities in making recommendations.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our study points to a need for more research on the use of patient-specific outcome forecasts.
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
authors.forename: Iris
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Kesternich
authors.affiliation: Gerontology Institute, University of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, MA.
authors.forename: Francis G
authors.initials: FG
authors.lastname: Caro
authors.affiliation: Gerontology Institute, University of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, MA.
authors.forename: Alison S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Gottlieb
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
authors.forename: Susanne
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hoffmann
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
authors.forename: Joachim K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Winter
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D019645:Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee / Q000523:psychology*; D003657:Decision Making; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D020370:Osteoarthritis, Knee / Q000601:surgery*; D010358:Patient Participation / Q000523:psychology*; D011336:Probability; D016896:Treatment Outcome
keywords: Patient treatment choice; decision aids; hypothetical choice experiment; outcome probabilities