title: Two models for changes of EV71 immunity in infants and young children.
abstract: Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) has been associated with outbreaks of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) in China. Susceptibility to EV71 is associated with age, but few studies have been accomplished to measure such a relationship. A better understanding of the connection between susceptibility and age is necessary to develop strategies for control of HFMD. In 2010, a survey of an epidemic of EV71 was conducted in a northern city of Jiangsu Province in China. Samples were tested serologically to identify the EV71 neutralizing antibody. Two different mathematical models have now been employed to describe how this antibody varied with age, and parameters in the model were estimated from survey data. Both models depicted the variations in EV71-neutralizing antibody. Seroprevalence was high for neonates but decreased to near zero at 5 months of age. Subsequently, the EV71 antibody levels increased and then remained stable after about 36 months. For models 1 and 2, values for the coefficient of determination (R(2)) were 0.9458 and 0.9576, and values for root mean square error (RMSE) were 0.0755 and 0.0752, respectively. Model 2, formulated from the characteristics of development of the immune system, was more reliable than model 1, formulated from survey data, because the impact of the survey on the structure of the model was removed. Moreover, model 2 provided the possibility to define the parameters in a biological sense.
authors.affiliation: a Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics; School of Public Health; Nanjing Medical University ; Nanjing , Jiangsu , PR China.
authors.forename: Xiaoming
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Tu
authors.forename: Yongmei
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Fengcai
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.forename: Feng
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D057134:Antibodies, Neutralizing / Q000097:blood*; D000914:Antibodies, Viral / Q000097:blood*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D029821:Enterovirus A, Human / Q000276:immunology*; D005260:Female; D006232:Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies
chemical_list: D057134:Antibodies, Neutralizing; D000914:Antibodies, Viral
keywords: CoxA16, coxsackievirus A16; EV71, enterovirus 71; Eq., Equation; HFMD, Hand foot-and-mouth disease; ODE, ordinary differential equation; R2, coefficient of determination; RMSE, root mean square error; dynamical model; enterovirus 71; statistical analysis; susceptibility