title: Impact of colic pain as a significant factor for predicting the stone free rate of one-session shock wave lithotripsy for treating ureter stones: a Bayesian logistic regression model analysis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study was conducted to evaluate colic pain as a prognostic pretreatment factor that can influence ureter stone clearance and to estimate the probability of stone-free status in shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) patients with a ureter stone.
  
  
  METHODS
  We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 1,418 patients who underwent their first SWL between 2005 and 2013. Among these patients, 551 had a ureter stone measuring 4-20 mm and were thus eligible for our analyses. The colic pain as the chief complaint was defined as either subjective flank pain during history taking and physical examination. Propensity-scores for established for colic pain was calculated for each patient using multivariate logistic regression based upon the following covariates: age, maximal stone length (MSL), and mean stone density (MSD). Each factor was evaluated as predictor for stone-free status by Bayesian and non-Bayesian logistic regression model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  After propensity-score matching, 217 patients were extracted in each group from the total patient cohort. There were no statistical differences in variables used in propensity- score matching. One-session success and stone-free rate were also higher in the painful group (73.7% and 71.0%, respectively) than in the painless group (63.6% and 60.4%, respectively). In multivariate non-Bayesian and Bayesian logistic regression models, a painful stone, shorter MSL, and lower MSD were significant factors for one-session stone-free status in patients who underwent SWL.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Colic pain in patients with ureter calculi was one of the significant predicting factors including MSL and MSD for one-session stone-free status of SWL.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Severance Hospital, Urological Science Institute, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Doo Yong
authors.initials: DY
authors.lastname: Chung
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Urological Science Institute, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Kang Su
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Cho
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Severance Check-Up, Yonsei University Health System, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Dae Hun
authors.initials: DH
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Severance Hospital, Urological Science Institute, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Jang Hee
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Han
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Yangpyeong Health Center, Yangpyeong, Korea.
authors.forename: Dong Hyuk
authors.initials: DH
authors.lastname: Kang
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Severance Hospital, Urological Science Institute, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Hae Do
authors.initials: HD
authors.lastname: Jung
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Haeundae Paik Hospital, Inje University College of Medicine, Busan, Korea.
authors.forename: Jong Kyou
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Kown
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Severance Hospital, Urological Science Institute, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Won Sik
authors.initials: WS
authors.lastname: Ham
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Severance Hospital, Urological Science Institute, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Young Deuk
authors.initials: YD
authors.lastname: Choi
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Severance Hospital, Urological Science Institute, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Joo Yong
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Lee
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003085:Colic / Q000150:complications*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008096:Lithotripsy; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010146:Pain / Q000150:complications*; D011379:Prognosis; D057216:Propensity Score; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D014514:Ureteral Calculi / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000628:therapy*