title: [Prediction method of rural landscape pattern evolution based on life cycle: a case study of Jinjing Town, Hunan Province, China].
abstract: Taking Jinjing Town in Dongting Lake area as a case, this paper analyzed the evolution of rural landscape patterns by means of life cycle theory, simulated the evolution cycle curve, and calculated its evolution period, then combining CA-Markov model, a complete prediction model was built based on the rule of rural landscape change. The results showed that rural settlement and paddy landscapes of Jinjing Town would change most in 2020, with the rural settlement landscape increased to 1194.01 hm2 and paddy landscape greatly reduced to 3090.24 hm2. The quantitative and spatial prediction accuracies of the model were up to 99.3% and 96.4%, respectively, being more explicit than single CA-Markov model. The prediction model of rural landscape patterns change proposed in this paper would be helpful for rural landscape planning in future.
authors.forename: Xiang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Ji
authors.forename: Li-Ming
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Hong-Qing
authors.initials: HQ
authors.lastname: Li
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002681:China; D004779:Environment Design; D060106:Lakes; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012275:Oryza; D012424:Rural Population