title: GRACE Score among Six Risk Scoring Systems (CADILLAC, PAMI, TIMI, Dynamic TIMI, Zwolle) Demonstrated the Best Predictive Value for Prediction of Long-Term Mortality in Patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To compare the prognostic accuracy of six scoring models for up to three-year mortality and rates of hospitalisation due to acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in STEMI patients.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 593 patients treated with primary PCI were evaluated. Prospective follow-up of patients was ≥3 years. Thirty-day, one-year, two-year, and three-year mortality rates were 4.0%, 7.3%, 8.9%, and 10.6%, respectively. Six risk scores--the TIMI score and derived dynamic TIMI, CADILLAC, PAMI, Zwolle, and GRACE--showed a high predictive accuracy for six- and 12-month mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.73-0.85. The best predictive values for long-term mortality were obtained by GRACE. The next best-performing scores were CADILLAC, Zwolle, and Dynamic TIMI. All risk scores had a lower prediction accuracy for repeat hospitalisation due to ADHF, except Zwolle with the discriminatory capacity for hospitalisation up to two years (AUC, 0.80-0.83).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  All tested models showed a high predictive value for the estimation of one-year mortality, but GRACE appears to be the most suitable for the prediction for a longer follow-up period. The tested models exhibited an ability to predict the risk of ADHF, especially the Zwolle model.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Simona
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Littnerova
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Petr
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kala
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Jiri
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Jarkovsky
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic; International Clinical Research Center-Department of Cardiovascular Disease, St Anne's University Hospital, Brno, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Lenka
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kubkova
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Hospital Podlesi A.S., Trinec, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Krystyna
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Prymusova
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Petr
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kubena
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Hospital Trebic, Trebic, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tesak
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; International Clinical Research Center-Department of Cardiovascular Disease, St Anne's University Hospital, Brno, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Ondrej
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Toman
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Poloczek
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic; International Clinical Research Center-Department of Cardiovascular Disease, St Anne's University Hospital, Brno, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Jindrich
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Spinar
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Ladislav
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Dusek
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic; Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic; International Clinical Research Center-Department of Cardiovascular Disease, St Anne's University Hospital, Brno, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Jiri
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Parenica
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D019540:Area Under Curve; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000175:diagnosis; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000401:mortality*; D010351:Patient Discharge; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D014463:Ultrasonography