title: Prognostic Nomogram for Thoracic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma after Radical Esophagectomy.
abstract: Nomogram has demonstrated its capability in individualized estimates of survival in diverse cancers. Here we retrospectively investigated 1195 patients with esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma (ESCC) who underwent radical esophagectomy at Zhejiang Cancer Hospital in Hangzhou, China. We randomly assigned two-thirds of the patients to a training cohort (n = 797) and one-third to a validation cohort (n = 398). Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed using the training cohort, and a nomogram was developed for predicting 3-year and 5-year overall survival rates. Multivariate analysis identified tumor length, surgical approach, number of examined lymph node, number of positive lymph node, extent of positive lymph node, grade, and depth of invasion as independent risk factors for survival. The discriminative ability of the nomogram was externally determined using the validation cohort, showing that the nomogram exhibited a sufficient level of discrimination according to the C-index (0.715, 95% CI 0.671-0.759). The C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the sixth edition (0.664, P-value < 0.0001) and the seventh edition (0.696, P-value < 0.0003) of the TNM classification. This study developed the first nomogram for ESCC, which can be applied in daily clinical practice for individualized survival prediction.
authors.affiliation: Cancer Research Institute, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital & Key Laboratory Diagnosis and Treatment Technology on Thoracic Oncology of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Dan
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Su
authors.affiliation: Cancer Research Institute, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital & Key Laboratory Diagnosis and Treatment Technology on Thoracic Oncology of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China; Department of Thoracic Surgery, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Xinming
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: Cancer Research Institute, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital & Key Laboratory Diagnosis and Treatment Technology on Thoracic Oncology of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China; Department of Thoracic Surgery, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Qixun
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Cancer Research Institute, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital & Key Laboratory Diagnosis and Treatment Technology on Thoracic Oncology of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China; Department of Thoracic Surgery, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Youhua
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.affiliation: Cancer Research Institute, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital & Key Laboratory Diagnosis and Treatment Technology on Thoracic Oncology of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China; Department of Thoracic Surgery, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Xun
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Cancer Research Institute, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital & Key Laboratory Diagnosis and Treatment Technology on Thoracic Oncology of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China; Department of Thoracic Surgery, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Weihui
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Zheng
authors.affiliation: Cancer Research Institute, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital & Key Laboratory Diagnosis and Treatment Technology on Thoracic Oncology of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China; Department of Thoracic Surgery, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Kaiyi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Tao
authors.affiliation: Cancer Research Institute, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital & Key Laboratory Diagnosis and Treatment Technology on Thoracic Oncology of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China; Department of Thoracic Surgery, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Jie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics and Institute of Bioinformatics, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America.
authors.forename: Zhen
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics and Institute of Bioinformatics, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America.
authors.forename: Liang
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, and Tianjin Key Laboratory of Medical Epigenetics, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Shaoyuan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Cancer Research Institute, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital & Key Laboratory Diagnosis and Treatment Technology on Thoracic Oncology of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, China; Department of Thoracic Surgery, Zhejiang Cancer Hospital, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Weimin
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Mao
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002294:Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Q000235:genetics*; D002681:China; D004938:Esophageal Neoplasms / Q000235:genetics*; D000077277:Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma; D016629:Esophagectomy / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008198:Lymph Nodes / Q000473:pathology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009362:Neoplasm Metastasis; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D049451:Nomograms; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011897:Random Allocation; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013899:Thoracic Neoplasms / Q000235:genetics*