title: Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.
abstract: Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.
authors.affiliation: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA.
authors.forename: Yoshimitsu
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Chikamoto
authors.affiliation: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA.|Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA.
authors.forename: Axel
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Timmermann
authors.affiliation: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia.
authors.forename: Jing-Jia
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.affiliation: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan.
authors.forename: Takashi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Mochizuki
authors.affiliation: Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8568, Japan.
authors.forename: Masahide
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kimoto
authors.affiliation: Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8568, Japan.
authors.forename: Masahiro
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Watanabe
authors.affiliation: Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan.
authors.forename: Masayoshi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ishii
authors.affiliation: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive MC 206, La Jolla, California 92093-0206, USA.
authors.forename: Shang-Ping
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Xie
authors.affiliation: Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 2525 Correa Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA.
authors.forename: Fei-Fei
authors.initials: FF
authors.lastname: Jin