title: Use and impact of usual intake models on dietary exposure estimate and risk assessment of chemical substances: a practical example for cadmium, acrylamide and sulphites.
abstract: To estimate of food and nutrient intakes, 24-h recalls are frequently used in dietary assessment. However intake data collected for a short period are a limited estimator of long-term usual intake. An important limitation of such data is that the within-person variability tends to inflate the intake distribution leading to a biased estimation of extreme percentiles. Statistical models, named usual-intake models, that separate the within-person variability from the between-persons variability, have lately been implemented. The main objectives of this study were to highlight the potential impact that usual-intake models can have on exposure estimate and risk assessment and to point out which are the key aspects to be considered in order to run these models properly and be sure to interpret the output correctly. To achieve the goal we used the consumption data obtained by the French dietary survey INCA2 and the concentration data collected during the French TDS2, using Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software, release 8.0. For the three substances included in this study (cadmium, acrylamide and sulphites), the exposure of the upper percentiles was significantly reduced when using usual-intake models in comparison with the results obtained in the observed individual mean models, even if in terms of risk assessment the impact of using usual-intake models was limited. From the results it appears that the key aspects to consider when using usual-intake models are: (1) the normality of the log-transformed intake distribution, (2) the contribution per single food group to the total exposure, and (3) the independency of food consumption data on multiple days. In conclusion, usual-intake models may have an impact on exposure estimates although, referring to the results, it did not bring any changes in terms of risk assessment, but further investigations are needed.
authors.affiliation: a Department of Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety , Istituto Superiore di Sanità , Rome , Italy.
authors.forename: Francesca Romana
authors.initials: FR
authors.lastname: Mancini
authors.forename: Véronique
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Sirot
authors.forename: Luca
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Busani
authors.forename: Jean-Luc
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Volatier
authors.forename: Marion
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hulin
mesh_terms: D020106:Acrylamide / Q000737:chemistry*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002104:Cadmium / Q000737:chemistry*; D004032:Diet / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004034:Diet Surveys; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000032:analysis; D005247:Feeding Behavior; D005504:Food Analysis; D005506:Food Contamination / Q000032:analysis; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013447:Sulfites / Q000737:chemistry*; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D013447:Sulfites; D002104:Cadmium; D020106:Acrylamide
keywords: acrylamide; cadmium; exposure assessment; risk assessment; sulphites; usual-intake models