title: Identification of patients at high risk for Clostridium difficile infection: development and validation of a risk prediction model in hospitalized patients treated with antibiotics.
abstract: To develop and validate a prediction model for Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in hospitalized patients treated with systemic antibiotics, we performed a case-cohort study in a tertiary (derivation) and secondary care hospital (validation). Cases had a positive Clostridium test and were treated with systemic antibiotics before suspicion of CDI. Controls were randomly selected from hospitalized patients treated with systemic antibiotics. Potential predictors were selected from the literature. Logistic regression was used to derive the model. Discrimination and calibration of the model were tested in internal and external validation. A total of 180 cases and 330 controls were included for derivation. Age >65 years, recent hospitalization, CDI history, malignancy, chronic renal failure, use of immunosuppressants, receipt of antibiotics before admission, nonsurgical admission, admission to the intensive care unit, gastric tube feeding, treatment with cephalosporins and presence of an underlying infection were independent predictors of CDI. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model in the derivation cohort was 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.87), and was reduced to 0.81 after internal validation. In external validation, consisting of 97 cases and 417 controls, the model area under the curve was 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.77-0.85) and model calibration was adequate (Brier score 0.004). A simplified risk score was derived. Using a cutoff of 7 points, the positive predictive value, sensitivity and specificity were 1.0%, 72% and 73%, respectively. In conclusion, a risk prediction model was developed and validated, with good discrimination and calibration, that can be used to target preventive interventions in patients with increased risk of CDI.
authors.affiliation: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht, The Netherlands. Electronic address: c.h.vanwerkhoven@umcutrecht.nl.
authors.forename: C H
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: van Werkhoven
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: van der Tempel
authors.affiliation: Health Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Jajou
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Microbiology and Immunology, Diakonessenhuis, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: S F T
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Thijsen
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Microbiology and Immunology, Diakonessenhuis, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: R J A
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Diepersloot
authors.affiliation: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht, The Netherlands; Department of Medical Microbiology, University Medical Center, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: M J M
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Bonten
authors.affiliation: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: D F
authors.initials: DF
authors.lastname: Postma
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: J J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Oosterheert
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D016360:Clostridioides difficile / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D003015:Clostridium Infections / Q000139:chemically induced* / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000382:microbiology; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004760:Enterocolitis / Q000139:chemically induced* / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000382:microbiology; D005260:Female; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents
keywords: Antibiotic-associated diarrhoea; Clostridium difficile; antibiotics; hospital infection control; primary prevention; risk prediction