IS THE SUICIDE RATE A RANDOM WALK?
The yearly suicide rates for the period 1933-2010 and the daily suicide numbers for 1990 and 1991 were examined for whether the distribution of difference scores (from year to year and from day to day) fitted a normal distribution, a characteristic of stochastic processes that follow a random walk. If the suicide rate were a random walk, then any disturbance to the suicide rate would have a permanent effect and national suicide prevention efforts would likely fail. The distribution of difference scores from day to day (but not the difference scores from year to year) fitted a normal distribution and, therefore, were consistent with a random walk.
1 Drexel University.
Bijou
B
Yang
2 The Richard Stockton College of New Jersey.
David
D
Lester
2 The Richard Stockton College of New Jersey.
Jennifer
J
Lyke
2 The Richard Stockton College of New Jersey.
Robert
R
Olsen
D006801:Humans; D016011:Normal Distribution; D013405:Suicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology