Black lives matter: Differential mortality and the racial composition of the U.S. electorate, 1970-2004.
Excess mortality in marginalized populations could be both a cause and an effect of political processes. We estimate the impact of mortality differentials between blacks and whites from 1970 to 2004 on the racial composition of the electorate in the US general election of 2004 and in close statewide elections during the study period. We analyze 73 million US deaths from the Multiple Cause of Death files to calculate: (1) Total excess deaths among blacks between 1970 and 2004, (2) total hypothetical survivors to 2004, (3) the probability that survivors would have turned out to vote in 2004, (4) total black votes lost in 2004, and (5) total black votes lost by each presidential candidate. We estimate 2.7 million excess black deaths between 1970 and 2004. Of those, 1.9 million would have survived until 2004, of which over 1.7 million would have been of voting-age. We estimate that 1 million black votes were lost in 2004; of these, 900,000 votes were lost by the defeated Democratic presidential nominee. We find that many close state-level elections over the study period would likely have had different outcomes if voting age blacks had the mortality profiles of whites. US black voting rights are also eroded through felony disenfranchisement laws and other measures that dampen the voice of the US black electorate. Systematic disenfranchisement by population group yields an electorate that is unrepresentative of the full interests of the citizenry and affects the chance that elected officials have mandates to eliminate health inequality.
Mathematica Policy Research, USA; Population Studies Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, USA.
Javier M
JM
Rodriguez
Department of Health Behavior and Health Education, University of Michigan, USA; Population Studies Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, USA; Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, USA. Electronic address: arline@umich.edu.
Arline T
AT
Geronimus
George E. Johnson Collegiate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Michigan, USA; Population Studies Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, USA; Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University, USA.
John
J
Bound
Halford Mackinder Professor of Geography, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford University, UK.
Danny
D
Dorling
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001741:Black or African American / Q000266:history* / Q000523:psychology; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D054624:Health Status Disparities; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D061213:Mortality, Premature / Q000208:ethnology*; D011057:Politics; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D044465:White People; D055815:Young Adult
Electorate; Health disparities; Health policy; Political inequality; Premature mortality; Race; Voting