Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans.
Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity.
Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. sethf@berkeley.edu.
Seth
S
Finnegan
Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6, Canada.
Sean C
SC
Anderson
Department of Earth and Environment, Franklin and Marshall College, Lancaster, PA 17604, USA.
Paul G
PG
Harnik
Department of Paleobiology, National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC 20013, USA.
Carl
C
Simpson
United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK. Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research, Cambridge CB1 2FB, UK. Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada.
Derek P
DP
Tittensor
Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA 02125, USA.
Jarrett E
JE
Byrnes
Environmental Science Program, Mount Allison University, Sackville, New Brunswick E4L 1A5, Canada.
Zoe V
ZV
Finkel
Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
David R
DR
Lindberg
Center for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
Lee Hsiang
LH
Liow
Department of Geology, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA 23187, USA.
Rowan
R
Lockwood
Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada.
Heike K
HK
Lotze
National Evolutionary Synthesis Center, Durham, NC 27705, USA.
Craig R
CR
McClain
School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Jenny L
JL
McGuire
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, 0843-03092, Balboa, Republic of Panamá.
Aaron
A
O'Dea
Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia.
John M
JM
Pandolfi
D000818:Animals; D059001:Aquatic Organisms; D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005580:Fossils; D006802:Human Activities; D006801:Humans; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D010163:Paleontology; D012306:Risk