The difference conservation makes to extinction risk of the world's ungulates.
Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario-based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species' observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.
IUCN Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland.|United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219c Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, United Kingdom.
Michael
M
Hoffmann
IUCN Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland.|6 Stratton Road, Saltford, Bristol, BS31 3BS, United Kingdom.
J W
JW
Duckworth
IUCN Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland.|26 Oakthorn, Samson Crescent, Pretoria, South Africa.
Katharine
K
Holmes
Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, Manchester Metropolitan University, Chester St, Manchester, M1 5GD, United Kingdom.
David P
DP
Mallon
CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS - Université de Montpellier - Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier - EPHE - CNRS, 1919 route de Mende, 34293, Montpellier, Cedex 5, France.
Ana S L
AS
Rodrigues
IUCN Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196, Gland, Switzerland.|United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219c Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, United Kingdom.|Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Arlington, VA, 22202, U.S.A.|Department of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY, United Kingdom.|Al Ain Zoo, P.O. Box 45553, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Simon N
SN
Stuart
D000818:Animals; D001188:Artiodactyla / Q000502:physiology*; D044822:Biodiversity; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D056727:Endangered Species; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D010527:Perissodactyla / Q000502:physiology*; D056662:Proboscidea Mammal / Q000502:physiology*; D012306:Risk
IUCN Red List; Lista Roja UICN; conservation impact; counterfactual scenarios; escenarios contrafáctico; extinction risk; impacto de la conservación; riesgo de extinción