Uniting mathematics and biology for control of visceral leishmaniasis.
The neglected tropical disease (NTD) visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem on the Indian subcontinent by 2017 or earlier. To date there is a surprising scarcity of mathematical models capable of capturing VL disease dynamics, which are widely considered central to planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions. The few models that have been developed are examined, highlighting the necessity for better data to parameterise and fit these and future models. In particular, the characterisation and infectiousness of the different disease stages will be crucial to elimination. Modelling can then assist in establishing whether, when, and how the WHO VL elimination targets can be met.
Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (WIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK. Electronic address: k.s.rock@warwick.ac.uk.
Kat S
KS
Rock
Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, PO Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Epke A
EA
le Rutte
Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, PO Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Sake J
SJ
de Vlas
Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (WIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; Parasitology Department, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool L3 5QA, UK.
Emily R
ER
Adams
Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
Graham F
GF
Medley
Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (WIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.
T Deirdre
TD
Hollingsworth
D000818:Animals; D006801:Humans; D007891:Leishmania / Q000502:physiology; D007898:Leishmaniasis, Visceral / Q000469:parasitology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D008954:Models, Biological; D011576:Psychodidae / Q000469:parasitology
Indian subcontinent; kala-azar; mathematical model; review; visceral leishmaniasis