title: Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: modelling disease spread with partial data.
abstract: 'Big-data' epidemic models are being increasingly used to influence government policy to help with control and eradication of infectious diseases. In the case of livestock, detailed movement records have been used to parametrize realistic transmission models. While livestock movement data are readily available in the UK and other countries in the EU, in many countries around the world, such detailed data are not available. By using a comprehensive database of the UK cattle trade network, we implement various sampling strategies to determine the quantity of network data required to give accurate epidemiological predictions. It is found that by targeting nodes with the highest number of movements, accurate predictions on the size and spatial spread of epidemics can be made. This work has implications for countries such as the USA, where access to data is limited, and developing countries that may lack the resources to collect a full dataset on livestock movements.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Complexity Science, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK p.m.dawson@warwick.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Peter M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Dawson
authors.affiliation: School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington LE12 5RD, UK Central Veterinary Institute, Wageningen UR (CVI), PO Box 65, 8200 AB Lelystad, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Marleen
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Werkman
authors.affiliation: School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 2BN, UK.
authors.forename: Ellen
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Brooks-Pollock
authors.affiliation: School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington LE12 5RD, UK Fogarty International Center, US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
authors.forename: Michael J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Tildesley
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D003906:Developing Countries; D058872:Epidemics / Q000662:veterinary*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D014481:United States
keywords: epidemics; livestock networks; partial data