title: Ignoring regression to the mean leads to unsupported conclusion about obesity.
abstract: Childhood obesity remains a substantial health concern for our population and thoughtful attempts to develop and evaluate the utility of programs to reduce childhood obesity levels are needed. Unfortunately, we believe the conclusion by Burke et al. that the HealthMPowers program produces positive change in body composition is incorrect because the results obtained are likely due to regression to the mean (RTM), a well-known threat to the validity of studies that is often overlooked. Using empirical data, we demonstrate that RTM is likely to be the cause for the changes reported. A more reasonable conclusion than the one of effectiveness the authors offered would be that the results did not support the effectiveness of the intervention. Public health officials, parents, school leaders, community leaders, and regulators need and deserve valid evidence free from spin on which they can base decisions.
authors.affiliation: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, USA. asheley@unc.edu.
authors.forename: Asheley Cockrell
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Skinner
authors.affiliation: Pennington Biomedical Research Center, Baton Rouge, USA. Steven.Heymsfield@pbrc.edu.
authors.forename: Steven B
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Heymsfield
authors.affiliation: Verona University Medical School, Verona, Italy. angpie@tin.it.
authors.forename: Angelo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pietrobelli
authors.affiliation: The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, USA. mfaith@email.unc.edu.
authors.forename: Myles S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Faith
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, USA. dallison@uab.edu.|Nutrition Obesity Research Center, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, USA. dallison@uab.edu.|Office of Energetics, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, USA. dallison@uab.edu.
authors.forename: David B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Allison
mesh_terms: D001823:Body Composition; D005260:Female; D015438:Health Behavior; D007722:Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice; D006293:Health Promotion / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009043:Motor Activity; D050177:Overweight / Q000517:prevention & control*; D063766:Pediatric Obesity / Q000517:prevention & control*