title: Constructing rigorous and broad biosurveillance networks for detecting emerging zoonotic outbreaks.
abstract: Determining optimal surveillance networks for an emerging pathogen is difficult since it is not known beforehand what the characteristics of a pathogen will be or where it will emerge. The resources for surveillance of infectious diseases in animals and wildlife are often limited and mathematical modeling can play a supporting role in examining a wide range of scenarios of pathogen spread. We demonstrate how a hierarchy of mathematical and statistical tools can be used in surveillance planning help guide successful surveillance and mitigation policies for a wide range of zoonotic pathogens. The model forecasts can help clarify the complexities of potential scenarios, and optimize biosurveillance programs for rapidly detecting infectious diseases. Using the highly pathogenic zoonotic H5N1 avian influenza 2006-2007 epidemic in Nigeria as an example, we determined the risk for infection for localized areas in an outbreak and designed biosurveillance stations that are effective for different pathogen strains and a range of possible outbreak locations. We created a general multi-scale, multi-host stochastic SEIR epidemiological network model, with both short and long-range movement, to simulate the spread of an infectious disease through Nigerian human, poultry, backyard duck, and wild bird populations. We chose parameter ranges specific to avian influenza (but not to a particular strain) and used a Latin hypercube sample experimental design to investigate epidemic predictions in a thousand simulations. We ranked the risk of local regions by the number of times they became infected in the ensemble of simulations. These spatial statistics were then complied into a potential risk map of infection. Finally, we validated the results with a known outbreak, using spatial analysis of all the simulation runs to show the progression matched closely with the observed location of the farms infected in the 2006-2007 epidemic.
authors.affiliation: University of California-Santa Barbara, Department of Economics, Santa Barbara, California, 93111, United States of America.
authors.forename: Mac
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: Statistical Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, 87545, United States of America.
authors.forename: Leslie
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Moore
authors.affiliation: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos, New Mexico, 87545, United States of America.
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: McMahon
authors.affiliation: Energy and Infrastructure Analysis, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, 87545, United States of America.
authors.forename: Dennis
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Powell
authors.affiliation: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Applied Statistics Group-Computational Engineering Division, Mailstop L-174, 7000 East Ave. Livermore, California, 94550, United States of America.
authors.forename: Montiago
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: LaBute
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, 70118, United States of America.
authors.forename: James M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Hyman
authors.affiliation: Center for Global Health, Health Sciences Center, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, 87131, United States of America.
authors.forename: Ariel
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rivas
authors.affiliation: Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, Environmental Analysis & Outcomes Division, St. Paul, Minnesota, 55155, United States of America.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jankowski
authors.affiliation: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Applied Modern Physics, Mailstop D454, Los Alamos, New Mexico, 87545, United States of America.
authors.forename: Joel
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Berendzen
authors.affiliation: University of British Columbia, Okanagan, 3333 University Way, Kelowna, B.C. V1V 1V7, Canada.
authors.forename: Jason
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Loeppky
authors.affiliation: Center for Computational Science, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana, 70118, United States of America.
authors.forename: Carrie
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Manore
authors.affiliation: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Environmental Stewardship, K404, Los Alamos, New Mexico, 87545, United States of America.
authors.forename: Jeanne
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fair
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring / Q000662:veterinary; D006801:Humans; D053124:Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype / Q000302:isolation & purification / Q000472:pathogenicity; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011200:Poultry; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission