title: Expected outcomes from topical haemoglobin spray in non-healing and worsening venous leg ulcers.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the effect of topical haemoglobin spray on treatment response and wound-closure rates in patients with chronic venous leg ulcers.
  
  
  METHODS
  A linear regression model was used to forecast healing outcomes over a 12-month period. Simulated data were taken from normal distributions based on post-hoc analysis of a 72-patient study in non-healing and worsening wounds (36 patients receiving standard care and 36 receiving standard care plus topical haemoglobin spray). Using a simulated 25,000 'patients' from each group, the proportion of wound closure over time was projected.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Simulation results predicted a 55% wound closure rate at six months in the haemoglobin group, compared with 4% in the standard care group. Over a 12-month simulation period, a 43% overall reduction in wound burden was predicted. With the haemoglobin spray, 85% of wounds were expected to heal in 12 months, compared with 13% in the standard care group.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Topical haemoglobin spray promises a more effective treatment for chronic venous leg ulcers than standard care alone in wounds that are non-healing or worsening. Further research is required to validate these predictions and to identify achievable outcomes in other chronic wound types.
authors.affiliation: Department of Dermatovenereology, Charles University Prague, 3rd Medical Faculty.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Arenberger
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Elg
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Petyt
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Cutting
mesh_terms: D000287:Administration, Topical; D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D000891:Anti-Infective Agents, Local / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D002908:Chronic Disease; D005544:Forecasting; D006454:Hemoglobins / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009779:Occlusive Dressings; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012044:Regression Analysis; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014647:Varicose Ulcer / Q000382:microbiology* / Q000628:therapy*; D014945:Wound Healing
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents; D000891:Anti-Infective Agents, Local; D006454:Hemoglobins
keywords: Granulox; topical haemoglobin; venous leg ulcer; wound healing