title: Validity of the Medical College Admission Test for predicting MD-PhD student outcomes.
abstract: The Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) is a quantitative metric used by MD and MD-PhD programs to evaluate applicants for admission. This study assessed the validity of the MCAT in predicting training performance measures and career outcomes for MD-PhD students at a single institution. The study population consisted of 153 graduates of the Vanderbilt Medical Scientist Training Program (combined MD-PhD program) who matriculated between 1963 and 2003 and completed dual-degree training. This population was divided into three cohorts corresponding to the version of the MCAT taken at the time of application. Multivariable regression (logistic for binary outcomes and linear for continuous outcomes) was used to analyze factors associated with outcome measures. The MCAT score and undergraduate GPA (uGPA) were treated as independent variables; medical and graduate school grades, time-to-PhD defense, USMLE scores, publication number, and career outcome were dependent variables. For cohort 1 (1963-1977), MCAT score was not associated with any assessed outcome, although uGPA was associated with medical school preclinical GPA and graduate school GPA (gsGPA). For cohort 2 (1978-1991), MCAT score was associated with USMLE Step II score and inversely correlated with publication number, and uGPA was associated with preclinical GPA (mspGPA) and clinical GPA (mscGPA). For cohort 3 (1992-2003), the MCAT score was associated with mscGPA, and uGPA was associated with gsGPA. Overall, MCAT score and uGPA were inconsistent or weak predictors of training metrics and career outcomes for this population of MD-PhD students.
authors.affiliation: Medical Scientist Training Program, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, D7235 Medical Center North, 1161 21st Avenue South, Nashville, TN, 37232-2581, USA.|Department of Medical Education and Administration, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA.
authors.forename: James L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Bills
authors.affiliation: Medical Scientist Training Program, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, D7235 Medical Center North, 1161 21st Avenue South, Nashville, TN, 37232-2581, USA.|Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA.|Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA.
authors.forename: Jacob
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: VanHouten
authors.affiliation: Medical Scientist Training Program, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, D7235 Medical Center North, 1161 21st Avenue South, Nashville, TN, 37232-2581, USA.|Department of Medical Education and Administration, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA.
authors.forename: Michelle M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Grundy
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Education and Administration, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA.
authors.forename: Roger
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Chalkley
authors.affiliation: Medical Scientist Training Program, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, D7235 Medical Center North, 1161 21st Avenue South, Nashville, TN, 37232-2581, USA. terry.dermody@vanderbilt.edu.|Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA. terry.dermody@vanderbilt.edu.|Department of Pediatrics, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA. terry.dermody@vanderbilt.edu.|Elizabeth B. Lamb Center for Pediatric Research, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, 37232, USA. terry.dermody@vanderbilt.edu.
authors.forename: Terence S
authors.initials: TS
authors.lastname: Dermody
mesh_terms: D002170:Canada; D003099:College Admission Test; D004503:Education, Medical, Graduate / Q000639:trends*; D004521:Educational Measurement; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D012577:Schools, Medical; D013337:Students, Medical; D014481:United States
keywords: MCAT; MCAT as predictor; MD–PhD training; Predictors of outcomes