title: Impact of spatial dispersion, evolution, and selection on Ebola Zaire Virus epidemic waves.
abstract: Ebola virus Zaire (EBOV) has reemerged in Africa, emphasizing the global importance of this pathogen. Amidst the response to the current epidemic, several gaps in our knowledge of EBOV evolution are evident. Specifically, uncertainty has been raised regarding the potential emergence of more virulent viral variants through amino acid substitutions. Glycoprotein (GP), an essential component of the EBOV genome, is highly variable and a potential site for the occurrence of advantageous mutations. For this study, we reconstructed the evolutionary history of EBOV by analyzing 65 GP sequences from humans and great apes over diverse locations across epidemic waves between 1976 and 2014. We show that, although patterns of spatial dispersion throughout Africa varied, the evolution of the virus has largely been characterized by neutral genetic drift. Therefore, the radical emergence of more transmissible variants is unlikely, a positive finding, which is increasingly important on the verge of vaccine deployment.
authors.affiliation: 1] College of Public Health and Health Professions and College of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA [2] Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
authors.forename: Taj
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Azarian
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious, Parasitic and Immunomediated Diseases, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Alessandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lo Presti
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious, Parasitic and Immunomediated Diseases, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Marta
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Giovanetti
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious, Parasitic and Immunomediated Diseases, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Eleonora
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Cella
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathology, Immunology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
authors.forename: Brittany
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Rife
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical and Clinical Science, Infectious Diseases and Immunopathology Section, 'L. Sacco' Hospital, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Alessia
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lai
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical and Clinical Science, Infectious Diseases and Immunopathology Section, 'L. Sacco' Hospital, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Gianguglielmo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Zehender
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Infectious, Parasitic and Immunomediated Diseases, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy [2] University Hospital Campus Bio-Medico, Italy.
authors.forename: Massimo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ciccozzi
authors.affiliation: 1] Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA [2] Department of Pathology, Immunology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Salemi
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D029043:Ebolavirus / Q000235:genetics*; D019143:Evolution, Molecular; D006023:Glycoproteins / Q000235:genetics*; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D058974:Phylogeography; D014760:Viral Fusion Proteins / Q000235:genetics*
chemical_list: D006023:Glycoproteins; D014760:Viral Fusion Proteins