title: Investigation of uncertainties associated with the production of n-butanol through ethanol catalysis in sugarcane biorefineries.
abstract: This study evaluated the viability of n-butanol production integrated within a first and second generation sugarcane biorefinery. The evaluation included a deterministic analysis as well as a stochastic approach, the latter using Monte Carlo simulation. Results were promising for n-butanol production in terms of revenues per tonne of processed sugarcane, but discouraging with respect to internal rate of return (IRR). The uncertainty analysis determined there was high risk involved in producing n-butanol and co-products from ethanol catalysis. It is unlikely that these products and associated production route will be financially attractive in the short term without lower investment costs, supportive public policies and tax incentives coupled with biofuels' production strategies.
authors.affiliation: Brazilian Bioethanol Science and Technology Laboratory (CTBE/CNPEM), Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil. Electronic address: lucas.pereira@bioetanol.org.br.
authors.forename: Lucas G
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Pereira
authors.affiliation: Institute of Science and Technology, Federal University of São Paulo (ICT/UNIFESP), São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil.
authors.forename: Marina O S
authors.initials: MO
authors.lastname: Dias
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, and School of Public Policy and Governance, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
authors.forename: Heather L
authors.initials: HL
authors.lastname: MacLean
authors.affiliation: Brazilian Bioethanol Science and Technology Laboratory (CTBE/CNPEM), Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil; School of Chemical Engineering, University of Campinas (FEQ/UNICAMP), Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil.
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bonomi
mesh_terms: D020001:1-Butanol / Q000302:isolation & purification / Q000378:metabolism*; D056804:Biofuels / Q000382:microbiology*; D019149:Bioreactors / Q000382:microbiology*; D002384:Catalysis; D003198:Computer Simulation; D000431:Ethanol / Q000378:metabolism*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D031786:Saccharum / Q000382:microbiology*; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
chemical_list: D056804:Biofuels; D000431:Ethanol; D020001:1-Butanol
keywords: Ethanol; Sugarcane; Uncertainty analysis; n-Butanol