title: Eliminating bovine tuberculosis in cattle and badgers: insight from a dynamic model.
abstract: Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is a multi-species infection that commonly affects cattle and badgers in Great Britain. Despite years of study, the impact of badgers on BTB incidence in cattle is poorly understood. Using a two-host transmission model of BTB in cattle and badgers, we find that published data and parameter estimates are most consistent with a system at the threshold of control. The most consistent explanation for data obtained from cattle and badger populations includes within-host reproduction numbers close to 1 and between-host reproduction numbers of approximately 0.05. In terms of controlling infection in cattle, reducing cattle-to-cattle transmission is essential. In some regions, even large reductions in badger prevalence can have a modest impact on cattle infection and a multi-stranded approach is necessary that also targets badger-to-cattle transmission directly. The new perspective highlighted by this two-host approach provides insight into the control of BTB in Great Britain.
authors.affiliation: Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Oakfield House, Oakfield Grove, Bristol BS8 2BN, UK ellen.brooks-pollock@bristol.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Ellen
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5984-4932
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Brooks-Pollock
authors.affiliation: Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK.
authors.forename: James L N
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Wood
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000662:veterinary*; D015994:Incidence; D008954:Models, Biological; D045969:Mustelidae; D009163:Mycobacterium bovis / Q000502:physiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D014380:Tuberculosis, Bovine / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000382:microbiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: bovine tuberculosis; disease control; transmission dynamics; type reproduction numbers