title: What should be considered if you decide to build your own mathematical model for predicting the development of bacterial resistance? Recommendations based on a systematic review of the literature.
abstract: Acquired bacterial resistance is one of the causes of mortality and morbidity from infectious diseases. Mathematical modeling allows us to predict the spread of resistance and to some extent to control its dynamics. The purpose of this review was to examine existing mathematical models in order to understand the pros and cons of currently used approaches and to build our own model. During the analysis, seven articles on mathematical approaches to studying resistance that satisfied the inclusion/exclusion criteria were selected. All models were classified according to the approach used to study resistance in the presence of an antibiotic and were analyzed in terms of our research. Some models require modifications due to the specifics of the research. The plan for further work on model building is as follows: modify some models, according to our research, check all obtained models against our data, and select the optimal model or models with the best quality of prediction. After that we would be able to build a model for the development of resistance using the obtained results.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Applied Mathematics and Control Processes, St. Petersburg State University St. Petersburg, Russia.
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Arepeva
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Applied Mathematics and Control Processes, St. Petersburg State University St. Petersburg, Russia ; Faculty of Medicine, First Pavlov State Medical University of St. Petersburg St. Petersburg, Russia.
authors.forename: Alexey
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kolbin
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Medicine, First Pavlov State Medical University of St. Petersburg St. Petersburg, Russia.
authors.forename: Alexey
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kurylev
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Applied Mathematics and Control Processes, St. Petersburg State University St. Petersburg, Russia.
authors.forename: Julia
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Balykina
authors.affiliation: Department of Molecular Microbiology and Epidemiology, Scientific Research Institute of Childhood Infections St. Petersburg, Russia ; Department of Medical Microbiology, North-Western State Medical University named after I.I. Mechnikov St. Petersburg, Russia.
authors.forename: Sergey
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sidorenko
keywords: antibiotics; bacterial resistance; mathematical model