title: Development of Predictive Models for the Growth Kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes on Fresh Pork under Different Storage Temperatures.
abstract: This study was conducted to develop a predictive model to estimate the growth of Listeria monocytogenes on fresh pork during storage at constant temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35°C). The Baranyi model was fitted to growth data (log CFU per gram) to calculate the specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) with a high coefficient of determination (R(2) > 0.98). As expected, SGR increased with a decline in LT with rising temperatures in all samples. Secondary models were then developed to describe the variation of SGR and LT as a function of temperature. Subsequently, the developed models were validated with additional independent growth data collected at 7, 17, 27, and 37°C and from published reports using proportion of relative errors and proportion of standard error of prediction. The proportion of relative errors of the SGR and LT models developed herein were 0.79 and 0.18, respectively. In addition, the standard error of prediction values of the SGR and LT of L. monocytogenes ranged from 25.7 to 33.1% and from 44.92 to 58.44%, respectively. These results suggest that the model developed in this study was capable of predicting the growth of L. monocytogenes under various isothermal conditions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Food Science and Biotechnology and Institute of Bioscience and Biotechnology, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Gangwon 200-701, Korea.
authors.forename: Ke
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.affiliation: Department of Food Science and Biotechnology and Institute of Bioscience and Biotechnology, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Gangwon 200-701, Korea.
authors.forename: Sung-Sam
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Hong
authors.affiliation: College of Food Science and Engineering, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao, Shandong 266-109, China.
authors.forename: Jun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Food Science and Biotechnology and Institute of Bioscience and Biotechnology, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Gangwon 200-701, Korea.
authors.forename: Mi-Ja
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Chung
authors.affiliation: Department of Food Science and Biotechnology and Institute of Bioscience and Biotechnology, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, Gangwon 200-701, Korea. deoghwa@kangwon.ac.kr.
authors.forename: Oh
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Deog-Hwan
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D015169:Colony Count, Microbial; D005516:Food Microbiology; D061353:Food Storage; D007700:Kinetics; D008089:Listeria monocytogenes / Q000737:chemistry / Q000254:growth & development*; D008954:Models, Biological; D000069466:Red Meat / Q000032:analysis / Q000382:microbiology*; D013552:Swine; D013696:Temperature