title: The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants.
abstract: Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.|Department of Aquatic Ecology, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Überlandstrasse 133, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Owen L
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7724-1633
authors.initials: OL
authors.lastname: Petchey
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.|Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, SE- 901 87 Umeå, Sweden.
authors.forename: Mikael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pontarp
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Thomas M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Massie
authors.affiliation: Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, CC065, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095, Montpellier Cedex 05, France.
authors.forename: Sonia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kéfi
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Arpat
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ozgul
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Maja
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Weilenmann
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Gian Marco
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Palamara
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.|Department of Aquatic Ecology, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Überlandstrasse 133, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Florian
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Altermatt
authors.affiliation: Department of Aquatic Ecology, Center for Ecology, Evolution, and Biogeochemistry, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Kastanienbaum, Seestrasse 79, 6047 Luzern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Blake
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Matthews
authors.affiliation: Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Jonathan M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Levine
authors.affiliation: Animal and Plant Sciences, Sheffield University, Sheffield, Western Bank. S10 2TN South Yorkshire, UK.
authors.forename: Dylan Z
authors.initials: DZ
authors.lastname: Childs
authors.affiliation: School of Biology and Ecology and Mitchel Center for Sustainability Solutions, University of Maine, Orono, 5751 Murray Hall, ME 04469, USA.
authors.forename: Brian J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: McGill
authors.affiliation: University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Remote Sensing Laboratories, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Michael E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Schaepman
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Bernhard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Schmid
authors.affiliation: Department of Aquatic Ecology, Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Überlandstrasse 133, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland.|Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Piet
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Spaak
authors.affiliation: Animal and Plant Sciences, Sheffield University, Sheffield, Western Bank. S10 2TN South Yorkshire, UK.
authors.forename: Andrew P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Beckerman
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Pennekamp
authors.affiliation: The Illinois Natural History Survey, Champaign, 1816 South Oak Street, MC 652, IL 61820, USA.
authors.forename: Ian S
authors.initials: IS
authors.lastname: Pearse
mesh_terms: D005075:Biological Evolution; D004463:Ecology / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005544:Forecasting; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010802:Phylogeny
keywords: Dynamics; ecosystems; environmental change; forecasting; futures; prediction; scenarios