title: Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change.
abstract: Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future.
authors.affiliation: Land and Water, Ecosciences Precinct, CSIRO, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102, Australia sam.nicol@csiro.au.
authors.forename: Sam
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Nicol
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Richard A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Fuller
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
authors.forename: Takuya
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Iwamura
authors.affiliation: Land and Water, Ecosciences Precinct, CSIRO, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102, Australia.
authors.forename: Iadine
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Chadès
mesh_terms: D025041:Animal Migration; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D046091:Charadriiformes / Q000502:physiology*; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D003657:Decision Making; D017753:Ecosystem; D035501:Uncertainty
keywords: East Asian–Australasian flyway; Markov decision process; adaptation; adaptive management; climate change; migratory birds