title: Using growth and decline factors to project VOC emissions from oil and gas production.
abstract: Projecting future-year emission inventories in the oil and gas sector is complicated by the fact that there is a life cycle to the amount of production from individual wells and thus from well fields in aggregate. Here we present a method to account for that fact in support of regulatory policy development. This approach also has application to air quality modeling inventories by adding a second tier of refinement to the projection methodology. Currently, modeling studies account for the future decrease in emissions due to new regulations based on the year those regulations are scheduled to take effect. The addition of a year-by-year accounting of production decline provides a more accurate picture of emissions from older, uncontrolled sources. This proof of concept approach is focused solely on oil production; however, it could be used for the activity and components of natural gas production to compile a complete inventory for a given area.
authors.affiliation: a Utah Division of Air Quality , Salt Lake City , UT , USA.
authors.forename: Whitney
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Oswald
authors.forename: Kiera
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Harper
authors.forename: Patrick
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Barickman
authors.forename: Colleen
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Delaney
mesh_terms: D000397:Air Pollution; D019652:Extraction and Processing Industry / Q000639:trends*; D005544:Forecasting; D055549:Volatile Organic Compounds
chemical_list: D055549:Volatile Organic Compounds