title: Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability.
abstract: Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45% of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10% of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Golestan University, Shahid Beheshti, 49138-15759, Gorgan, Iran. ghr.roshan@gu.ac.ir.
authors.forename: Gholamreza
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Roshan
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Golestan University, Shahid Beheshti, 49138-15759, Gorgan, Iran.
authors.forename: Robabe
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Yousefi
authors.affiliation: School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Private Bag 3, Wits 2050, Johannesburg, South Africa.
authors.forename: Jennifer M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Fitchett
mesh_terms: D002947:Cities; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D058639:Cold-Shock Response; D018869:Heat-Shock Response; D006801:Humans; D007492:Iran; D012621:Seasons; D013697:Thermosensing; D014195:Travel / Q000639:trends*; D014887:Weather
keywords: Climate change; Climate suitability; Iran; Mann-Kendall test; Tourism climate index