title: Reconstructing the Migratory Behavior and Long-Term Survivorship of Juvenile Chinook Salmon under Contrasting Hydrologic Regimes.
abstract: The loss of genetic and life history diversity has been documented across many taxonomic groups, and is considered a leading cause of increased extinction risk. Juvenile salmon leave their natal rivers at different sizes, ages and times of the year, and it is thought that this life history variation contributes to their population sustainability, and is thus central to many recovery efforts. However, in order to preserve and restore diversity in life history traits, it is necessary to first understand how environmental factors affect their expression and success. We used otolith (87)Sr/(86)Sr in adult Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytcha) returning to the Stanislaus River in the California Central Valley (USA) to reconstruct the sizes at which they outmigrated as juveniles in a wetter (2000) and drier (2003) year. We compared rotary screw trap-derived estimates of outmigrant timing, abundance and size with those reconstructed in the adults from the same cohort. This allowed us to estimate the relative survival and contribution of migratory phenotypes (fry, parr, smolts) to the adult spawning population under different flow regimes. Juvenile abundance and outmigration behavior varied with hydroclimatic regime, while downstream survival appeared to be driven by size- and time-selective mortality. Although fry survival is generally assumed to be negligible in this system, >20% of the adult spawners from outmigration year 2000 had outmigrated as fry. In both years, all three phenotypes contributed to the spawning population, however their relative proportions differed, reflecting greater fry contributions in the wetter year (23% vs. 10%) and greater smolt contributions in the drier year (13% vs. 44%). These data demonstrate that the expression and success of migratory phenotypes vary with hydrologic regime, emphasizing the importance of maintaining diversity in a changing climate.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Anna M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Sturrock
authors.affiliation: US Fish and Wildlife Service, Lodi, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: J D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Wikert
authors.affiliation: Tuolumne River Restoration Center, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, La Grange, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Timothy
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Heyne
authors.affiliation: US Fish and Wildlife Service, Lodi, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Carl
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Mesick
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Division of Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Alan E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Hubbard
authors.affiliation: Cramer Fish Sciences, Auburn, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Travis M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Hinkelman
authors.affiliation: Glenn T. Seaborg Institute, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Peter K
authors.initials: PK
authors.lastname: Weber
authors.affiliation: Department of Animal Sciences, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: George E
authors.initials: GE
authors.lastname: Whitman
authors.affiliation: UC Davis Interdisciplinary Center for Plasma Mass Spectrometry, Department of Geology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Justin J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Glessner
authors.affiliation: Department of Animal Sciences, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America; National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Rachel C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Johnson
mesh_terms: D025041:Animal Migration; D000818:Animals; D001522:Behavior, Animal; D002140:California; D057231:Climate Change; D062070:Hydrology; D010641:Phenotype; D045483:Rivers; D012474:Salmon / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000502:physiology*