title: Potential impacts of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China.
abstract: To study the potential effects of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China, the field data analysis method is applied to data collected over a given monitoring period. Nine water quality parameters (water temperature, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen) and three climate indicators for 20 years (1992-2011) are considered. The annual trends exhibit significant trends with respect to certain water quality and climate parameters. Five parameters exhibit significant seasonality differences in the monthly means between the two decades (1992-2001 and 2002-2011) of the monitoring period. Non-parametric regression of the statistical analyses is performed to explore potential key climate drivers of water quality in the reservoir. The results indicate that seasonal changes in temperature and rainfall may have positive impacts on water quality. However, an extremely cold spring and high wind speed are likely to affect the self-stabilising equilibrium states of the reservoir, which requires attention in the future. The results suggest that land use changes have important impact on nitrogen load. This study provides useful information regarding the potential effects of climate change on water quality in developing countries.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China. emil@tju.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Chen
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China.
authors.forename: Shiyu
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lai
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China.
authors.forename: Xueping
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China.
authors.forename: Liping
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Xu
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D057231:Climate Change; D005618:Fresh Water / Q000737:chemistry*; D012621:Seasons; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D014867:Water / Q000737:chemistry*; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis; D060753:Water Quality; D014881:Water Supply
chemical_list: D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical; D014867:Water
keywords: Climate change; Land use; Non-parametric regression; Rainfall; Temperature; Water quality; Yuqiao Reservoir