title: External validation of the prognostic index in acute paraquat poisoning.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Some studies have evaluated the prognostic indicators associated with acute paraquat (PQ) poisoning. In this study, we externally validated the Yamaguchi index, which showed a good prognostic relevance in predicting the outcome of PQ poisoning.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective analysis of 297 patients was performed. The Yamaguchi index was calculated using the following equation: Eq1 = (K(+) × HCO3(-))/(Creatinine × 0.088)(mEq/L) against time from PQ ingestion (T). The patients were divided into three groups: group A: Eq1 > 1500 - 399 × log T, group B: 930 - 399 × log T < Eq1 ≤ 1500 - 399 × log T, and group C: Eq1 ≤ 930 - 399 × log T).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The overall mortality rate was 65.3% (194 of 297). The mortality rates of the three groups stratified by the Yamaguchi index were 7.1% (2 of 28), 22.4% (15 of 67), and 87.6% (177 of 202). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for predicting mortality from the external validation of the Yamaguchi index was 0.842 (95% confidence interval: 0.795-0.882).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The Yamaguchi index is a reliable prognostic factor and could be helpful in predicting mortality due to PQ poisoning.
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency Medicine, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: D S
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency Medicine, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, Republic of Korea Gyeongsang Institute of Health Sciences, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, Republic of Korea em6766@gmail.com.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Kang
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency Medicine, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: D H
authors.initials: DH
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency Medicine, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, Republic of Korea Gyeongsang Institute of Health Sciences, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: S C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency Medicine, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, Republic of Korea Gyeongsang Institute of Health Sciences, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: S H
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency Medicine, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: J H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Jeong
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency Medicine, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: T S
authors.initials: TS
authors.lastname: Kang
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency Medicine, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: S M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Jung
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency Medicine, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Jinju, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: S B
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency Medicine, Catholic University of Daegu, Daegu, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: K W
authors.initials: KW
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Dong-A University, Busan, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: R B
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: Kim
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D010269:Paraquat / Q000506:poisoning*; D011379:Prognosis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D010269:Paraquat
keywords: Emergency department; herbicide; outcome; validation