title: Mathematical Modeling in Tobacco Control Research: Initial Results From a Systematic Review.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The US Food and Drug Administration has expressed interest in using mathematical models to evaluate potential tobacco policies. The goal of this systematic review was to synthesize data from tobacco control studies that employ mathematical models.
  
  
  METHODS
  We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 to identify published studies that used a mathematical model to project a tobacco-related outcome and developed a data extraction form based on the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices. We developed an organizational framework to categorize these studies and identify models employed across multiple papers. We synthesized results qualitatively, providing a descriptive synthesis of included studies.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The 263 studies in this review were heterogeneous with regard to their methodologies and aims. We used the organizational framework to categorize each study according to its objective and map the objective to a model outcome. We identified two types of study objectives (trend and policy/intervention) and three types of model outcomes (change in tobacco use behavior, change in tobacco-related morbidity or mortality, and economic impact). Eighteen models were used across 118 studies.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This paper extends conventional systematic review methods to characterize a body of literature on mathematical modeling in tobacco control. The findings of this synthesis can inform the development of new models and the improvement of existing models, strengthening the ability of researchers to accurately project future tobacco-related trends and evaluate potential tobacco control policies and interventions. These findings can also help decision-makers to identify and become oriented with models relevant to their work.
authors.affiliation: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC; Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD;
authors.forename: Shari P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Feirman
authors.affiliation: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC; Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD;
authors.forename: Elisabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Donaldson
authors.affiliation: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC;
authors.forename: Allison M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Glasser
authors.affiliation: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC; Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD;
authors.forename: Jennifer L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Pearson
authors.affiliation: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC; Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD; Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC.
authors.forename: Ray
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Niaura
authors.affiliation: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC;
authors.forename: Shyanika W
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Rose
authors.affiliation: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC; Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD; Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC.
authors.forename: David B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Abrams
authors.affiliation: The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC; Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD; avillanti@legacyforhealth.org.
authors.forename: Andrea C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Villanti
mesh_terms: D035843:Biomedical Research / Q000379:methods* / Q000639:trends; D003657:Decision Making; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000639:trends; D000074606:Smoking Prevention; D014029:Tobacco Use Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014486:United States Food and Drug Administration / Q000639:trends