title: A risk score for predicting 1-year mortality in patients ≥75 years of age presenting with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome.
abstract: Approximately 1/3 of patients with non-ST-segment elevation (NSTE) acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are ≥75 years of age. Risk stratification in these patients is generally difficult because supporting evidence is scarce. The investigators developed and validated a simple risk prediction score for 1-year mortality in patients ≥75 years of age presenting with NSTE ACS. The derivation cohort was the Italian Elderly ACS trial, which included 313 patients with NSTE ACS aged ≥75 years. A logistic regression model was developed to predict 1-year mortality. The validation cohort was a registry cohort of 332 patients with NSTE ACS meeting the same inclusion criteria as for the Italian Elderly ACS trial but excluded from the trial for any reason. The risk score included 5 statistically significant covariates: previous vascular event, hemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, ischemic electrocardiographic changes, and elevated troponin level. The model allowed a maximum score of 6. The score demonstrated a good discriminating power (C statistic = 0.739) and calibration, even among subgroups defined by gender and age. When validated in the registry cohort, the scoring system confirmed a strong association with the risk for all-cause death. Moreover, a score ≥3 (the highest baseline risk group) identified a subset of patients with NSTE ACS most likely to benefit from an invasive approach. In conclusion, the risk for 1-year mortality in patients ≥75 years of age with NSTE ACS is substantial and can be predicted through a score that can be easily derived at the bedside at hospital presentation. The score may help in guiding treatment strategy.
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Cardiologia, Ospedale S. M. Della Misericordia, Perugia, Italy. Electronic address: fangeli@cardionet.it.
authors.forename: Fabio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Angeli
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Cardiologia, Ospedale S. M. Della Misericordia, Perugia, Italy.
authors.forename: Claudio
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Cavallini
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Medicina Interna, Ospedale di Assisi, Assisi, Italy.
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Verdecchia
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento cardiotoracovascolare, Ospedale Niguarda Cà Granda, Milano, Italy.
authors.forename: Nuccia
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Morici
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Cardiologia, Ospedale S. M. Della Misericordia, Perugia, Italy.
authors.forename: Maurizio
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Del Pinto
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento cardiotoracovascolare, Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria Pisana, Pisa, Italy.
authors.forename: Anna Sonia
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Petronio
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Cardiologia, INRCA, Ancona, Italy.
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Antonicelli
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Cardiologia, Ospedale S. Maria Delle Grazie, Naples, Italy.
authors.forename: Ernesto
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Murena
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento cardiotoracovascolare, Ospedale Niguarda Cà Granda, Milano, Italy.
authors.forename: Irene
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Bossi
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento cardiotoracovascolare, IRCCS Policlinico S. Matteo, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Stefano
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: De Servi
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento Cardiovascolare, Ospedale A. Manzoni, Lecco, Italy.
authors.forename: Stefano
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Savonitto
mesh_terms: D054058:Acute Coronary Syndrome / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality*; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002423:Cause of Death / Q000639:trends; D017023:Coronary Angiography; D004562:Electrocardiography; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D017052:Hospital Mortality / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D011379:Prognosis; D012042:Registries; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends