title: Wind power error estimation in resource assessments.
abstract: Estimating the power output is one of the elements that determine the techno-economic feasibility of a renewable project. At present, there is a need to develop reliable methods that achieve this goal, thereby contributing to wind power penetration. In this study, we propose a method for wind power error estimation based on the wind speed measurement error, probability density function, and wind turbine power curves. This method uses the actual wind speed data without prior statistical treatment based on 28 wind turbine power curves, which were fitted by Lagrange's method, to calculate the estimate wind power output and the corresponding error propagation. We found that wind speed percentage errors of 10% were propagated into the power output estimates, thereby yielding an error of 5%. The proposed error propagation complements the traditional power resource assessments. The wind power estimation error also allows us to estimate intervals for the power production leveled cost or the investment time return. The implementation of this method increases the reliability of techno-economic resource assessment studies.
authors.affiliation: Posgrado en Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Temixco, Morelos, México; Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, México.
authors.forename: Osvaldo
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Rodríguez
authors.affiliation: Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, México; Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Temixco, Morelos, México.
authors.forename: Jesús A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Del Río
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Temixco, Morelos, México.
authors.forename: Oscar A
authors.initials: OA
authors.lastname: Jaramillo
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Temixco, Morelos, México.
authors.forename: Manuel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Martínez
mesh_terms: D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011210:Power Plants; D059205:Renewable Energy; D014919:Wind