title: [Estimate of the incidence of HIV in the adult population of Paraguay using the MoT mathematical model].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the incidence of HIV in the adult population of Paraguay for 2014 and analyze its distribution and associated uncertainty according to risk behavior. METHODS The UNAIDS model was applied according to modes of transmission (MoT). Data were obtained from a detailed review of documents prepared between 1996 and 2013. Uncertainty of the estimated values was analyzed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The estimated incidence for 2014 was 0.091% (3,081 new infections). Both the percentage of new infections (74.75%, CI95%: 64.19%-81.47%) and the incidence rate per 10,000 population (9,518) were greater in the group of men who have sex with men (MSM). The second most affected group was made up of those who have stable heterosexual sex (9.9%). Heterosexual transmission accounted for 23% of new cases and 8% corresponded to couples (men and women) who engaged in high-risk behavior for HIV transmission. Female sex workers and intravenous drug users accounted for 1%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The resulting estimate of the incidence of HIV and its distribution among groups at risk is consistent with national-level reports and with the characteristics of the MSM population, which accounts for the greatest number of cases in the epidemic. Preventive actions should be aimed at this group in order to have a significant impact on the course of the epidemic in the country. Furthermore, it is recommended that preventive activities aimed at stable couples in at-risk groups and the general population be expanded and strengthened.
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Nacional de Asunción, Asunción, Paraguay, margarita.samudio@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Margarita
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Samudio
authors.affiliation: Imperial College London, Londres, Reino Unido.
authors.forename: Juan Fernando
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Vesga
authors.affiliation: Programa Conjunto de las Naciones Unidas sobre el VIH/SIDA, Asunción, Paraguay.
authors.forename: Beatriz
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cohenca
authors.affiliation: Oficina Regional de ONUSIDA para América, Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá
authors.forename: Marjolein
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jacobs
authors.affiliation: Oficina de ONUSIDA para Argentina, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
authors.forename: Clarisa
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Brezzo
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010239:Paraguay / Q000453:epidemiology; D012309:Risk-Taking; D011477:Sex Work; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000453:epidemiology; D035862:Vulnerable Populations