title: Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model.
abstract: Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan's man model "MANMO") to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia. kathryn.glass@anu.edu.au.
authors.forename: Kathryn
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Glass
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia. aspetert@bigpond.com.
authors.forename: Peter W
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Tait
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia. Liz.Hanna@anu.edu.au.
authors.forename: Elizabeth G
authors.initials: EG
authors.lastname: Hanna
authors.affiliation: Duke Global Health Institute, Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan 215316, China. keithdear4@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Keith
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Dear
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia; D002648:Child; D002980:Climate; D055874:Extreme Heat / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005260:Female; D018882:Heat Stress Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011336:Probability; D012306:Risk; D012737:Sex Factors; D014887:Weather
keywords: MANMO; heat storage; heat strain; population-level; simulation model