title: Rethinking Indian monsoon rainfall prediction in the context of recent global warming.
abstract: Prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is at the heart of tropical climate prediction. Despite enormous progress having been made in predicting ISMR since 1886, the operational forecasts during recent decades (1989-2012) have little skill. Here we show, with both dynamical and physical-empirical models, that this recent failure is largely due to the models' inability to capture new predictability sources emerging during recent global warming, that is, the development of the central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (CP-ENSO), the rapid deepening of the Asian Low and the strengthening of North and South Pacific Highs during boreal spring. A physical-empirical model that captures these new predictors can produce an independent forecast skill of 0.51 for 1989-2012 and a 92-year retrospective forecast skill of 0.64 for 1921-2012. The recent low skills of the dynamical models are attributed to deficiencies in capturing the developing CP-ENSO and anomalous Asian Low. The results reveal a considerable gap between ISMR prediction skill and predictability.
authors.affiliation: 1] International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96825, USA [2] Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
authors.forename: Bin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: 1] NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08540, USA [2] University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA.
authors.forename: Baoqiang
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Xiang
authors.affiliation: International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96825, USA.
authors.forename: Juan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 303332, USA.
authors.forename: Peter J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Webster
authors.affiliation: Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune 411 008, India.
authors.forename: Madhavan N
authors.initials: MN
authors.lastname: Rajeevan
authors.affiliation: 1] Key Laboratories for Virtual Geographic Environment and Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex System, School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China [2] Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China.
authors.forename: Jian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, S. Korea.
authors.forename: Kyung-Ja
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Ha