title: [Competing risk model based study of outcomes of mild cognitive impairment of seniors].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To introduce the competing risk model into outcome prediction of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) of seniors and to explore influencing factors for the prognosis of MCI to Alzheimer's disease (AD).
  
  
  METHODS
  Data were collected from six follow-up visits to 600 seniors from communities in Taiyuan city, which were conducted at an interval of six months from October 2010 to May 2013. MCI state was defined as the transient state, AD and death before AD as two absorbing states (death before AD in which was regarded as a competing risk event), building the competing risk model to identify the model parameters, and to explore influencing factors on MCI prognosis to AD. In the meantime, the 3-year MCI-AD transition probability was estimated based on the multi-state Markov model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Based on screening with the multivariate competing risk model analysis, factors such as higher age (estimate HR = 1.56, 95% CI: 1.01-2.39), female gender (HR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.02-2.92), higher education (HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.41-1.00), reading frequently (HR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.32-0.99), hypertension (HR = 3.43, 95% CI: 1.08-10.85) and high SBP (HR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.04-2.66), were statistically significant for transition from MCI to AD in three years. 3-year MCI-AD transition probability was 10.7% (95% CI: 8.6%-13.2%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Age, gender, education, reading and blood pressure were the influencing factors for the prognosis of MCI to AD. Competing risk model was advantageous in studying longitudinal data with multiple potential outcomes.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030001, China.
authors.forename: Qianqian
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030001, China.
authors.forename: Yanlong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Song
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030001, China.
authors.forename: Panpan
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kong
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030001, China; Email: yu_hongmei@hotmail.com.
authors.forename: Hongmei
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yu
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000544:Alzheimer Disease; D060825:Cognitive Dysfunction; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D012306:Risk