title: A natural experiment of the consequences of concentrating former prisoners in the same neighborhoods.
abstract: More than 600,000 prisoners are released from incarceration each year in the United States, and most end up residing in metropolitan areas, clustered within a select few neighborhoods. Likely consequences of this concentration of returning prisoners include higher rates of subsequent crime and recidivism. In fact, one-half of released prisoners return to prison within only 3 y of release. The routine exposure to criminogenic influences and criminal opportunities portends a bleak future for individuals who reside in neighborhoods with numerous other ex-prisoners. Through a natural experiment focused on post-Hurricane Katrina Louisiana, I examine a counterfactual scenario: If instead of concentrating ex-prisoners in geographic space, what would happen to recidivism rates if ex-prisoners were dispersed across space? Findings reveal that a decrease in the concentration of parolees in a neighborhood leads to a significant decrease in the reincarceration rate of former prisoners.
authors.affiliation: Department of Sociology, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3UQ, United Kingdom david.kirk@sociology.ox.ac.uk.
authors.forename: David S
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Kirk
mesh_terms: D003415:Crime / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D055867:Cyclonic Storms; D003710:Demography / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011640:Public Policy; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D014481:United States
keywords: Hurricane Katrina; natural experiment; neighborhood effects; prisoners; recidivism