title: Which matters most? Demographic, neuropsychological, personality, and situational factors in long-term marijuana and alcohol trajectories for justice-involved male youth.
abstract: Justice-involved youth have high rates of alcohol and marijuana use. However, little is known about what may drive these rates over time. Using a large-scale (N = 1,056; 41.4% African American, 33.5% Hispanic) longitudinal study with strong retention (M retention = 90% over Years 1-7), we utilized random-effects regression to determine the comparative contribution of four sets of factors in justice-involved males' patterns of marijuana and heavy alcohol use (number of times drunk) over 7 years of follow-up: demographic, personality, situational, and neuropsychological factors. Across both marijuana and heavy alcohol use models, three factors were particularly strong contributors to lower rates of substance use: (a) Hispanic ethnicity, (b) less exposure (street) time, and (c) better impulse control. Similarly, two factors were strong contributors to increased rates of marijuana and heavy alcohol use: (a) delinquent peers and (b) family member arrest. Together, these findings indicate the relative superiority of these independent variables over other categories (i.e., neuropsychological factors) in predicting high-risk youths' long-term (7-year) rates of substance use. These findings also suggest the importance of evaluating the connection of these areas for high-risk, adjudicated youth.
authors.affiliation: University of New Mexico.
authors.forename: Sarah W
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Feldstein Ewing
authors.affiliation: University of Texas at Dallas.
authors.forename: Francesca M
authors.initials: FM
authors.lastname: Filbey
authors.affiliation: University of Maryland.
authors.forename: Thomas A
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Loughran
authors.affiliation: Arizona State University.
authors.forename: Laurie
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Chassin
authors.affiliation: University of Texas at Dallas.
authors.forename: Alex R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Piquero
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D001741:Black or African American / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D001130:Arizona / Q000453:epidemiology; D044383:Black People; D003416:Criminal Law; D057237:Criminals / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005190:Family; D006630:Hispanic or Latino / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007175:Impulsive Behavior; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D002189:Marijuana Abuse / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D008385:Marijuana Smoking; D010379:Peer Group; D010414:Pennsylvania / Q000453:epidemiology; D010551:Personality; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders / Q000208:ethnology; D055815:Young Adult