title: Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change.
abstract: Pollen allergies are the most common form of respiratory allergic disease in Europe. Most studies have emphasized the role of environmental processes, as the drivers of airborne pollen fluctuations, implicitly considering pollen production as a random walk. This work shows that internal self-regulating processes of the plants (negative feedback) should be included in pollen dynamic systems in order to give a better explanation of the observed pollen temporal patterns. This article proposes a novel methodological approach based on dynamic systems to investigate the interaction between feedback structure of plant populations and climate in shaping long-term airborne Poaceae pollen fluctuations and to quantify the effects of climate change on future airborne pollen concentrations. Long-term historical airborne Poaceae pollen data (30 years) from Cordoba city (Southern Spain) were analyzed. A set of models, combining feedback structure, temperature and actual evapotranspiration effects on airborne Poaceae pollen were built and compared, using a model selection approach. Our results highlight the importance of first-order negative feedback and mean annual maximum temperature in driving airborne Poaceae pollen dynamics. The best model was used to predict the effects of climate change under two standardized scenarios representing contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. Our results predict an increase in pollen levels in southern Spain by 2070 ranging from 28.5% to 44.3%. The findings from this study provide a greater understanding of airborne pollen dynamics and how climate change might impact the future evolution of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations and thus the future evolution of related pollen allergies.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Protección de Cultivos, Instituto de Agricultura Sostenible, CSIC, Córdoba, Spain; Laboratorio Internacional en Cambio Global (CSIC-PUC), Santiago, Chile. Electronic address: dglhernandez@ias.csic.es.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: García de León
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Botánica, Ecología y Fisiología Vegetal, Universidad de Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: Herminia
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: García-Mozo
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Botánica, Ecología y Fisiología Vegetal, Universidad de Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: Carmen
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Galán
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Botánica, Ecología y Fisiología Vegetal, Universidad de Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: Purificación
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Alcázar
authors.affiliation: Laboratorio Internacional en Cambio Global (CSIC-PUC), Santiago, Chile; Departamento de Ecología, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Santiago, Chile.
authors.forename: Mauricio
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lima
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Protección de Cultivos, Instituto de Agricultura Sostenible, CSIC, Córdoba, Spain; Laboratorio Internacional en Cambio Global (CSIC-PUC), Santiago, Chile.
authors.forename: José L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: González-Andújar
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000485:Allergens / Q000032:analysis*; D002947:Cities; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011058:Pollen; D013030:Spain
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D000485:Allergens
keywords: Allergies-weather; Annual Pollen Index; Climate change scenarios; Dynamic system; Mediterranean area