title: The analysis of scoring systems predicting mortality in geriatric emergency abdominal surgery.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Accurate measurement of surgical outcomes, proper evaluation of hospitals and surgeons regardless of case can be performed by mortality prediction models. The aim of this study was to analyze factors affecting mortality, present our clinical experience and patient profile and evaluate different scoring systems in use of these patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective review of one hundred and twelve geriatric patients who underwent major abdominal emergency surgery between 2004 and 2008 was performed. APACHE II, ODIN, SAPS II expanded, P-POSSUM, Manheim peritonitis and Charlson comorbidity index, Goldman and ASA scores were calculated using patient data. Sensitivity, positive predictive value and Odd's ratio were calculated to predict the mortality for these scoring systems.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The overall mortality rate for our patients was found 33.9%. The factors affecting mortality in this study were found to be the duration of initial complaint, requirement of intensive care unit, requirement of mechanical ventilation and its duration, the presence of coexisting disease and peritonitis.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  According to our study, in this particular group of patients, APACHE II scoring system is more valid and accurate in estimating the mortality risk when compared to other scoring systems.
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Pamukkale University Faculty of Medicine, Denizli, Turkey.
authors.forename: Murat
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Özban
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Pamukkale University Faculty of Medicine, Denizli, Turkey.
authors.forename: Onur
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Birsen
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Pamukkale University Faculty of Medicine, Denizli, Turkey.
authors.forename: Mahmut
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Şenel
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Pamukkale University Faculty of Medicine, Denizli, Turkey.
authors.forename: Akın
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Özden
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Pamukkale University Faculty of Medicine, Denizli, Turkey.
authors.forename: Burhan
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Kabay
mesh_terms: D018806:APACHE; D000007:Abdominal Injuries / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D004632:Emergency Medical Services; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006299:Health Services for the Aged; D006801:Humans; D007362:Intensive Care Units; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality; D011183:Postoperative Complications; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012121:Respiration, Artificial; D012189:Retrospective Studies