title: Four-year incidence and predictors of coronal caries in south Brazilian elderly.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the incidence and predictors of coronal caries among community-dwelling elderly in a southern Brazilian city.
  
  
  METHODS
  A cohort study was conducted using a simple random sample of persons aged 60 years or older in Carlos Barbosa city, southern Brazil. Interviews and oral examinations were conducted among 388 dentate individuals at baseline and among 273 at 4-year follow-up. The incidence of coronal caries was modeled by means of negative binomial regression.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Some 184 (76.7%) participants presented with new coronal caries lesions or restorations, whose mean number was 2.2 ± 2.1, whereas the 4-year mean coronal caries incidence rate was 0.28 ± 0.29. In the multivariate model that controlled for baseline predictors, older age, male gender, living in a rural area, current smoking, and negative self-perception of oral health were associated with coronal caries incidence. Among clinical variables, the use of partial dentures was a predictor, whereas higher saliva flow rate was a protective factor for the outcome.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Demographic factors, primary determinants of health, behavioral, and clinical variables were predictors of the incidence of coronal caries. As people enter old age, even stronger emphasis should be put on preventive strategies.
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
authors.forename: Renato José
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: De Marchi
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
authors.forename: Camila Mello
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Dos Santos
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
authors.forename: Aline Blaya
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Martins
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.|Postgraduate Studies Program in Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.|Faculty of Dentistry, Center of Community Oral Health Research, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
authors.forename: Fernando Neves
authors.initials: FN
authors.lastname: Hugo
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.|Postgraduate Studies Program in Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.|Postgraduate Studies Program in Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
authors.forename: Juliana Balbinot
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Hilgert
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.|Postgraduate Studies Program in Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
authors.forename: Dalva Maria
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Padilha
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D003829:Denture, Partial / Q000009:adverse effects; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007407:Interviews as Topic; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects
keywords: caries; coronal; epidemiology; geriatrics; public health policy; risk prediction