title: A Bayesian nonparametric meta-analysis model.
abstract: In a meta-analysis, it is important to specify a model that adequately describes the effect-size distribution of the underlying population of studies. The conventional normal fixed-effect and normal random-effects models assume a normal effect-size population distribution, conditionally on parameters and covariates. For estimating the mean overall effect size, such models may be adequate, but for prediction, they surely are not if the effect-size distribution exhibits non-normal behavior. To address this issue, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric meta-analysis model, which can describe a wider range of effect-size distributions, including unimodal symmetric distributions, as well as skewed and more multimodal distributions. We demonstrate our model through the analysis of real meta-analytic data arising from behavioral-genetic research. We compare the predictive performance of the Bayesian nonparametric model against various conventional and more modern normal fixed-effects and random-effects models.
authors.affiliation: Department of Educational Psychology, Program in Measurement, Evaluation Statistics, and Assessments, College of Education, University of Illinois - Chicago, 1040 W. Harrison St. (MC 147), Chicago, IL, 60607, USA.
authors.forename: George
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Karabatsos
authors.affiliation: Department of Special Education, College of Education, University of Illinois - Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
authors.forename: Elizabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Talbott
authors.affiliation: Division of Statistics and Scientific Computation, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
authors.forename: Stephen G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Walker
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D005824:Genetics, Behavioral / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D015201:Meta-Analysis as Topic; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric
keywords: Bayesian nonparametric regression; effect sizes; meta‐analysis; meta‐regression; publication bias