title: A seamless approach to understanding and predicting Arctic sea ice in Met Office modelling systems.
abstract: Recent CMIP5 models predict large losses of summer Arctic sea ice, with only mitigation scenarios showing sustainable summer ice. Sea ice is inherently part of the climate system, and heat fluxes affecting sea ice can be small residuals of much larger air-sea fluxes. We discuss analysis of energy budgets in the Met Office climate models which point to the importance of early summer processes (such as clouds and meltponds) in determining both the seasonal cycle and the trend in ice decline. We give examples from Met Office modelling systems to illustrate how the seamless use of models for forecasting on time scales from short range to decadal might help to unlock the drivers of high latitude biases in climate models.
authors.affiliation: Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK helene.hewitt@metoffice.gov.uk.
authors.forename: Helene T
authors.initials: HT
authors.lastname: Hewitt
authors.affiliation: Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK.
authors.forename: Jeff K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Ridley
authors.affiliation: Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK.
authors.forename: Ann B
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Keen
authors.affiliation: Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK.
authors.forename: Alex E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: West
authors.affiliation: Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK.
authors.forename: K Andrew
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Peterson
authors.affiliation: Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK.
authors.forename: Jamie G L
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Rae
authors.affiliation: Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK.
authors.forename: Sean F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Milton
authors.affiliation: National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors.forename: Sheldon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bacon
keywords: Arctic sea ice; climate; modelling