title: Stochastic modelling, Bayesian inference, and new in vivo measurements elucidate the debated mtDNA bottleneck mechanism.
abstract: Dangerous damage to mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) can be ameliorated during mammalian development through a highly debated mechanism called the mtDNA bottleneck. Uncertainty surrounding this process limits our ability to address inherited mtDNA diseases. We produce a new, physically motivated, generalisable theoretical model for mtDNA populations during development, allowing the first statistical comparison of proposed bottleneck mechanisms. Using approximate Bayesian computation and mouse data, we find most statistical support for a combination of binomial partitioning of mtDNAs at cell divisions and random mtDNA turnover, meaning that the debated exact magnitude of mtDNA copy number depletion is flexible. New experimental measurements from a wild-derived mtDNA pairing in mice confirm the theoretical predictions of this model. We analytically solve a mathematical description of this mechanism, computing probabilities of mtDNA disease onset, efficacy of clinical sampling strategies, and effects of potential dynamic interventions, thus developing a quantitative and experimentally-supported stochastic theory of the bottleneck.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Iain G
authors.initials: IG
authors.lastname: Johnston
authors.affiliation: Biotechnology in Animal Production, Department for Agrobiotechnology, IFA Tulln, IFA Tulln, Tulln, Austria.
authors.forename: Joerg P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Burgstaller
authors.affiliation: Reproduction Centre Wieselburg, Department for Biomedical Sciences, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Vitezslav
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Havlicek
authors.affiliation: Biomodels Austria, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kolbe
authors.affiliation: Institute of Laboratory Animal Science, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Rülicke
authors.affiliation: Institute of Animal Breeding and Genetics, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Gottfried
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Brem
authors.affiliation: Nuffield Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Jo
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Poulton
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Nick S
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Jones
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D056808:Biostatistics / Q000379:methods; D004272:DNA, Mitochondrial / Q000235:genetics* / Q000378:metabolism*; D051379:Mice; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D014918:Wills
chemical_list: D004272:DNA, Mitochondrial
keywords: bottleneck; chromosomes; computational biology; developmental biology; genes; mouse; mtDNA; statistics; stochastic modelling; systems biology