title: Olive Fruit Fly (Bactrocera oleae) Population Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean: Influence of Exogenous Uncertainty on a Monophagous Frugivorous Insect.
abstract: Despite of the economic importance of the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) and the large amount of biological and ecological studies on the insect, the factors driving its population dynamics (i.e., population persistence and regulation) had not been analytically investigated until the present study. Specifically, our study investigated the autoregressive process of the olive fly populations, and the joint role of intrinsic and extrinsic factors molding the population dynamics of the insect. Accounting for endogenous dynamics and the influences of exogenous factors such as olive grove temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the presence of potential host fruit, we modeled olive fly populations in five locations in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Our models indicate that the rate of population change is mainly shaped by first and higher order non-monotonic, endogenous dynamics (i.e., density-dependent population feedback). The olive grove temperature was the main exogenous driver, while the North Atlantic Oscillation and fruit availability acted as significant exogenous factors in one of the five populations. Seasonal influences were also relevant for three of the populations. In spite of exogenous effects, the rate of population change was fairly stable along time. We propose that a special reproductive mechanism, such as reproductive quiescence, allows populations of monophagous fruit flies such as the olive fly to remain stable. Further, we discuss how weather factors could impinge constraints on the population dynamics at the local level. Particularly, local temperature dynamics could provide forecasting cues for management guidelines. Jointly, our results advocate for establishing monitoring programs and for a major focus of research on the relationship between life history traits and populations dynamics.
authors.affiliation: Fundación Miguel Lillo, Miguel Lillio 251, T4000JFE San Miguel de Tucumán, Tucumán, Argentina; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, CCT Tucumán, Unidad Ejecutora Lillo (FML-CONICET), Miguel Lillo 251, T4000JFE San Miguel de Tucumán, Tucumán, Argentina.
authors.forename: Mariano
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ordano
authors.affiliation: Institute of Plant Protection, ARO, The Volcani Center, Bet Dagan, Israel.
authors.forename: Izhar
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Engelhard
authors.affiliation: Institute of Plant Protection, ARO, The Volcani Center, Bet Dagan, Israel.
authors.forename: Polychronis
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Rempoulakis
authors.affiliation: Institute of Plant Protection, ARO, The Volcani Center, Bet Dagan, Israel.
authors.forename: Esther
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Nemny-Lavy
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and Environment, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel.
authors.forename: Moshe
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Blum
authors.affiliation: Agro, Nippon International Cooperation for Community Development (NICCOD), Zababdeh Office, Tubas, Palestine.
authors.forename: Sami
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Yasin
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and Environment, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel.
authors.forename: Itamar M
authors.initials: IM
authors.lastname: Lensky
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Entomology and Agricultural Zoology, University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece.
authors.forename: Nikos T
authors.initials: NT
authors.lastname: Papadopoulos
authors.affiliation: Institute of Plant Protection, ARO, The Volcani Center, Bet Dagan, Israel.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Nestel
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D004777:Environment; D005247:Feeding Behavior / Q000502:physiology*; D005638:Fruit; D007557:Israel; D016018:Least-Squares Analysis; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012098:Reproduction / Q000502:physiology; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature; D033621:Tephritidae / Q000502:physiology*