title: Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management.
abstract: Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, 901 87, Umeå, Sweden, agneta.andersson@umu.se.
authors.forename: Agneta
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Andersson
authors.forename: H E Markus
authors.initials: HE
authors.lastname: Meier
authors.forename: Matyas
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ripszam
authors.forename: Owen
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Rowe
authors.forename: Johan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wikner
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Haglund
authors.forename: Kari
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Eilola
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Legrand
authors.forename: Daniela
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Figueroa
authors.forename: Joanna
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Paczkowska
authors.forename: Elin
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Lindehoff
authors.forename: Mats
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tysklind
authors.forename: Ragnar
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Elmgren
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D010839:Phytoplankton