title: Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks.
abstract: Parasitic nematodes represent one of the most pervasive and significant challenges to grazing livestock, and their intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by climate. Parasite levels and species composition have already shifted under climate change, with nematode parasite intensity frequently low in newly colonized areas, but sudden large-scale outbreaks are becoming increasingly common. These outbreaks compromise both food security and animal welfare, yet there is a paucity of predictions on how climate change will influence livestock parasites. This study aims to assess how climate change can affect parasite risk. Using a process-based approach, we determine how changes in temperature-sensitive elements of outbreaks influence parasite dynamics, to explore the potential for climate change to influence livestock helminth infections. We show that changes in temperate-sensitive parameters can result in nonlinear responses in outbreak dynamics, leading to distinct 'tipping-points' in nematode parasite burdens. Through applying two mechanistic models, of varying complexity, our approach demonstrates that these nonlinear responses are robust to the inclusion of a number of realistic processes that are present in livestock systems. Our study demonstrates that small changes in climatic conditions around critical thresholds may result in dramatic changes in parasite burdens.
authors.affiliation: Disease Systems Team , SRUC, King's Building , West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK ; Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland , King's Buildings, West Mains Road , Edinburgh EH9 3JZ, UK ; Department of Environment , University of York , Heslington, York YO10 5DD, UK.
authors.forename: Naomi J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Fox
authors.affiliation: Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland , King's Buildings, West Mains Road , Edinburgh EH9 3JZ, UK.
authors.forename: Glenn
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Marion
authors.affiliation: Disease Systems Team , SRUC, King's Building , West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK.
authors.forename: Ross S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Davidson
authors.affiliation: Department of Environment , University of York , Heslington, York YO10 5DD, UK.
authors.forename: Piran C L
authors.initials: PC
authors.lastname: White
authors.affiliation: Disease Systems Team , SRUC, King's Building , West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK.
authors.forename: Michael R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Hutchings
keywords: climate change; helminth; livestock; nematode; parasite; temperature