title: Real Time Tracking of Magmatic Intrusions by means of Ground Deformation Modeling during Volcanic Crises.
abstract: Volcano observatories provide near real-time information and, ultimately, forecasts about volcano activity. For this reason, multiple physical and chemical parameters are continuously monitored. Here, we present a new method to efficiently estimate the location and evolution of magmatic sources based on a stream of real-time surface deformation data, such as High-Rate GPS, and a free-geometry magmatic source model. The tool allows tracking inflation and deflation sources in time, providing estimates of where a volcano might erupt, which is important in understanding an on-going crisis. We show a successful simulated application to the pre-eruptive period of May 2008, at Mount Etna (Italy). The proposed methodology is able to track the fast dynamics of the magma migration by inverting the real-time data within seconds. This general method is suitable for integration in any volcano observatory. The method provides first order unsupervised and realistic estimates of the locations of magmatic sources and of potential eruption sites, information that is especially important for civil protection purposes.
authors.affiliation: Osservatorio Etneo, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Catania, Italy.
authors.forename: Flavio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Cannavò
authors.affiliation: Institute of Geosciences (CSIC-UCM), Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Antonio G
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Camacho
authors.affiliation: COMET. Institute of Geophysics and Tectonics, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Pablo J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: González
authors.affiliation: Osservatorio Etneo, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Catania, Italy.
authors.forename: Mario
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mattia
authors.affiliation: Osservatorio Etneo, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Catania, Italy.
authors.forename: Giuseppe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Puglisi
authors.affiliation: Institute of Geosciences (CSIC-UCM), Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: José
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fernández