title: Recent increase in prevalence of antibodies to Dobrava-Belgrade virus (DOBV) in yellow-necked mice in Northern Italy.
abstract: Dobrava-Belgrade virus (DOBV) is the most pathogenic hantavirus in Europe with a case-fatality rate of up to 12%. To detect changes in risk for humans, the prevalence of antibodies to DOBV has been monitored in a population of Apodemus flavicollis in the province of Trento (northern Italy) since 2000, and a sudden increase was observed in 2010. In the 13-year period of this study, 2077 animals were live-trapped and mean hantavirus seroprevalence was 2·7% (s.e. = 0·3%), ranging from 0% (in 2000, 2002 and 2003) to 12·5% (in 2012). Climatic (temperature and precipitation) and host (rodent population density, rodent weight and sex, and larval tick burden) variables were analysed using Generalized Linear Models and multi-model inference to select the best model. Climatic changes (mean annual precipitation and maximum temperature) and individual body mass had a positive effect on hantavirus seroprevalence. Other possible drivers affecting the observed pattern need to be studied further.
authors.affiliation: Fondazione Edmund Mach - Research and Innovation Centre,San Michele all'Adige,Italy.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rizzoli
authors.affiliation: Fondazione Edmund Mach - Research and Innovation Centre,San Michele all'Adige,Italy.
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Tagliapietra
authors.affiliation: Fondazione Edmund Mach - Research and Innovation Centre,San Michele all'Adige,Italy.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Rosà
authors.affiliation: Fondazione Edmund Mach - Research and Innovation Centre,San Michele all'Adige,Italy.
authors.forename: H C
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Hauffe
authors.affiliation: Fondazione Edmund Mach - Research and Innovation Centre,San Michele all'Adige,Italy.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Marini
authors.affiliation: Department of Virology,University of Helsinki,Helsinki,Finland.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Voutilainen
authors.affiliation: Department of Virology,University of Helsinki,Helsinki,Finland.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sironen
authors.affiliation: Fondazione Edmund Mach - Research and Innovation Centre,San Michele all'Adige,Italy.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Rossi
authors.affiliation: Fondazione Edmund Mach - Research and Innovation Centre,San Michele all'Adige,Italy.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Arnoldi
authors.affiliation: Finnish Forest Research Institute,Vantaa,Finland.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Henttonen
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000914:Antibodies, Viral / Q000097:blood*; D001835:Body Weight; D002980:Climate; D005260:Female; D006476:Orthohantavirus / Q000276:immunology*; D018778:Hantavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000662:veterinary*; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D051189:Murinae; D012376:Rodent Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology*; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies
chemical_list: D000914:Antibodies, Viral
keywords: Apodemus flavicollis; Dobrava-Af seroprevalence; GLM; hantavirus; hazard