title: Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed.
abstract: This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+20%; high-very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high-very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status (i.e. groundwater quality) changes in the near future, the implementation of planning measures and natural resource management is recommended.
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata, Argentina; Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina. Electronic address: mlima@mdp.edu.ar.
authors.forename: M Lourdes
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Lima
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata, Argentina; Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (IIMyC), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina. Electronic address: aromanel@mdp.edu.ar.
authors.forename: Asunción
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Romanelli
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata, Argentina. Electronic address: hmassone@mdp.edu.ar.
authors.forename: Héctor E
authors.initials: HE
authors.lastname: Massone
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D001118:Argentina; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D060587:Groundwater / Q000737:chemistry*; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis; D014876:Water Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014881:Water Supply
chemical_list: D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical
keywords: Decision support system; Groundwater pollution hazard; Land use change; Pampa Plain, Argentina; Simulated scenarios