title: Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.
abstract: Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape.
authors.affiliation: Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability (CHESS), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
authors.forename: Chunyang
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: He
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Combating, Ministry of Education, School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China.
authors.forename: Yuanyuan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability (CHESS), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Electronic address: qxhuang@bnu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Qingxu
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Department of Geosciences, Murray State University, Murray, KY 42071, USA.
authors.forename: Qiaofeng
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Center for Human-Environment System Sustainability (CHESS), State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
authors.forename: Da
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Zhang
keywords: Alternative future analysis; Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan megalopolis cluster area; Climate change; Scenario modeling; Urban landscape