title: A novel approach to mapping and calculating the rate of spread of endemic bovine tuberculosis in England and Wales.
abstract: A mathematical method for estimating the endemic status of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle in England and Wales has been developed. 6.25km(2) hexagonal cells were used as the base resolution. Maps were produced for overlapping two-year periods spanning 2001/03 to 2009/11. Distance from a farm to the ten nearest 'Officially Tuberculosis Free status - Withdrawn' incidents within the same time period was measured. Endemic areas were defined as those hexagons containing farms where the 3rd nearest incident occurred within 7km. Temporal spread of endemic bTB was estimated by creating a contour map displaying the spread of endemic bTB over the two-year periods, and using boundary displacement to calculate the rate of spread across each hexagon. A rate was obtained for ∼2300 cells and varied between 0.04km and 15.9km per year (median=3.3km per year). This work will enable further analysis of the factors associated with this expansion.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, United Kingdom. Electronic address: Lucy.Brunton@apha.gsi.gov.uk.
authors.forename: L A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Brunton
authors.affiliation: Data Systems Group, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Nicholson
authors.affiliation: Data Systems Group, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ashton
authors.affiliation: Environment Research Group Oxford, Department of Zoology, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Alexander
authors.affiliation: Environment Research Group Oxford, Department of Zoology, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Wint
authors.affiliation: School of Planning and Geography, Cardiff University, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Enticott
authors.affiliation: School of Planning and Geography, Cardiff University, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ward
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Broughan
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: A V
authors.initials: AV
authors.lastname: Goodchild
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary; D019353:Endemic Diseases / Q000662:veterinary; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D062305:Geographic Mapping; D009163:Mycobacterium bovis / Q000302:isolation & purification; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012984:Software; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D014380:Tuberculosis, Bovine / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D014852:Wales / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Boundary displacement; Bovine tuberculosis; Endemicity; Inverse distance weighting; Mapping