title: Prognostic factors for progression of clinical osteoarthritis of the knee: a systematic review of observational studies.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  We performed a systematic review of prognostic factors for the progression of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), defined as increase in pain, decline in physical function or total joint replacement.
  
  
  METHODS
  We searched for available observational studies up to January 2015 in Medline and Embase according to a specified search strategy. Studies that fulfilled our initial inclusion criteria were assessed for methodological quality. Data were extracted and the results were pooled, or if necessary summarized according to a best evidence synthesis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of 1,392 articles identified, 30 met the inclusion criteria and 38 determinants were investigated. Pooling was not possible due to large heterogeneity between studies. The best evidence synthesis showed strong evidence that age, ethnicity, body mass index, co-morbidity count, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected infrapatellar synovitis, joint effusion and baseline OA severity (both radiographic and clinical) are associated with clinical knee OA progression. There was moderate evidence showing that education level, vitality, pain-coping subscale resting, MRI-detected medial femorotibial cartilage loss and general bone marrow lesions are associated with clinical knee OA progression. However, evidence for the majority of determinants was limited (including knee range of motion or markers) or conflicting (including age, gender and joint line tenderness).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Strong evidence was found for multiple prognostic factors for progression of clinical knee OA. A large variety in definitions of clinical knee OA (progression) remains, which makes it impossible to summarize the evidence through meta-analyses. More research on prognostic factors for knee OA is needed using symptom progression as an outcome measure. Remarkably, only few studies have been performed using pain progression as an outcome measure. The pathophysiology of radiographic factors and their relation with symptoms should be further explored.
authors.affiliation: Department of General Practice, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, PO Box 2040, Rotterdam, 3000 CA, The Netherlands. a.bastick@erasmusmc.nl.
authors.forename: Alex N
authors.initials: AN
authors.lastname: Bastick
authors.affiliation: Department of General Practice, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, PO Box 2040, Rotterdam, 3000 CA, The Netherlands. j.runhaar@erasmusmc.nl.
authors.forename: Jos
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Runhaar
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Leiden University Medical Center, PO Box 9600, Leiden, 2300 RC, The Netherlands. J.N.Belo@lumc.nl.
authors.forename: Janneke N
authors.initials: JN
authors.lastname: Belo
authors.affiliation: Department of General Practice, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, PO Box 2040, Rotterdam, 3000 CA, The Netherlands. s.bierma-zeinstra@erasmusmc.nl.
authors.forename: Sita M A
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Bierma-Zeinstra
mesh_terms: D018450:Disease Progression; D006801:Humans; D064887:Observational Studies as Topic; D020370:Osteoarthritis, Knee / Q000473:pathology*; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors