title: Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease.
abstract: Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana.
authors.affiliation: Bournemouth University, Dorset BH12 5BB , UK ; UMR MIVEGEC, IRD-CNRS-Universités de Montpellier 1 et 2, Centre IRD de Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier cedex 5 , France.
authors.forename: Aaron
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Morris
authors.affiliation: Bournemouth University, Dorset BH12 5BB , UK ; UMR BOREA, IRD-MNHN-Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, 375231 Paris cedex 5 , France.
authors.forename: Rodolphe E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Gozlan
authors.affiliation: Bournemouth University, Dorset BH12 5BB , UK.
authors.forename: Hossein
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hassani
authors.affiliation: Bournemouth University, Dorset BH12 5BB , UK.
authors.forename: Demetra
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Andreou
authors.affiliation: Institut Guyanais de Dermatologie Tropicale, EA 3593, Centre Hospitalier André Rosemon, Cayenne , French Guiana.
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Couppié
authors.affiliation: UMR MIVEGEC, IRD-CNRS-Universités de Montpellier 1 et 2, Centre IRD de Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier cedex 5 , France.
authors.forename: Jean-François
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Guégan
keywords: El Niño/La Niña; Mycobacterium ulcerans; Southern America; climate; coherence analysis; rainfall; singular spectrum analysis