title: Evaluating the potential of ecological niche modelling as a component in marine non-indigenous species risk assessments.
abstract: Marine biological invasions have increased with the development of global trading, causing the homogenization of communities and the decline of biodiversity. A main vector is ballast water exchange from shipping. This study evaluates the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) to predict the spread of 18 non-indigenous species (NIS) along shipping routes and their potential habitat suitability (hot/cold spots) in the Baltic Sea and Northeast Atlantic. Results show that, contrary to current risk assessment methods, temperature and sea ice concentration determine habitat suitability for 61% of species, rather than salinity (11%). We show high habitat suitability for NIS in the Skagerrak and Kattegat, a transitional area for NIS entering or leaving the Baltic Sea. As many cases of NIS introduction in the marine environment are associated with shipping pathways, we explore how ENM can be used to provide valuable information on the potential spread of NIS for ballast water risk assessment.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences - Kristineberg, University of Gothenburg, Kristineberg 566, SE-451 78 Fiskebäckskil, Sweden. Electronic address: Sonja.Leidenberger@bioenv.gu.se.
authors.forename: Sonja
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Leidenberger
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University Gothenburg, Box 463, SE-405 30 Göteborg, Sweden.
authors.forename: Matthias
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Obst
authors.affiliation: Fraunhofer IAIS Knowledge Discovery, Schloss Birlinghoven, 53754 Sankt Augustin, Germany.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Kulawik
authors.affiliation: Brockman Consult GmbH, Max-Planck-Str. 2, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany.
authors.forename: Kerstin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Stelzer
authors.affiliation: Brockman Consult GmbH, Max-Planck-Str. 2, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany.
authors.forename: Karin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Heyer
authors.affiliation: School of Computer Science and Informatics, Cardiff University, Queens Buildings, 5 The Parade, Cardiff CF24 3AA, UK.
authors.forename: Alex
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hardisty
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University Gothenburg, Box 463, SE-405 30 Göteborg, Sweden.
authors.forename: Sarah J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Bourlat
mesh_terms: D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D059001:Aquatic Organisms / Q000254:growth & development*; D044822:Biodiversity; D017753:Ecosystem; D058865:Introduced Species; D008954:Models, Biological; D009659:North Sea; D018570:Risk Assessment; D054712:Salinity; D012767:Ships
keywords: Ballast water; Ecological niche modelling; Non-indigenous species; Risk assessment; Shipping routes; Species distribution