title: Foliar interception of radionuclides in dry conditions: a meta-analysis using a Bayesian modeling approach.
abstract: Uncertainty on the parameters that describe the transfer of radioactive materials into the (terrestrial) environment may be characterized thanks to datasets such as those compiled within International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) documents. Nevertheless, the information included in these documents is too poor to derive a relevant and informative uncertainty distribution regarding dry interception of radionuclides by the pasture grass and the leaves of vegetables. In this paper, 145 sets of dry interception measurements by the aboveground biomass of specific plants were collected from published scientific papers. A Bayesian meta-analysis was performed to derive the posterior probability distributions of the parameters that reflect their uncertainty given the collected data. Four competing models were compared in terms of both fitting performances and predictive abilities to reproduce plausible dry interception data. The asymptotic interception factor, applicable whatever the species and radionuclide to the highest aboveground biomass values (e.g. mature leafy vegetables), was estimated with the best model, to be 0.87 with a 95% credible interval (0.85, 0.89).
authors.affiliation: Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), Laboratoire de Modélisation pour l'Expertise Environnementale (LM2E), Cadarache, Bâtiment 159, St Paul-lez-Durance, 13115, France. Electronic address: moustapha.sy@irsn.fr.
authors.forename: Mouhamadou Moustapha
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Sy
authors.affiliation: Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), PRP-HOM, SRBE, Laboratoire d'Epidémiologie (LEPID) Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92262, France.
authors.forename: Sophie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ancelet
authors.affiliation: Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), Laboratoire de Biogéochimie, Biodisponibilité et Transferts des radionucléides (L2BT), Cadarache, Bâtiment 183, St Paul-lez-Durance, 13115, France.
authors.forename: Pascale
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Henner
authors.affiliation: Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), Laboratoire de Biogéochimie, Biodisponibilité et Transferts des radionucléides (L2BT), Cadarache, Bâtiment 183, St Paul-lez-Durance, 13115, France.
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Hurtevent
authors.affiliation: Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN), Laboratoire de Modélisation pour l'Expertise Environnementale (LM2E), Cadarache, Bâtiment 159, St Paul-lez-Durance, 13115, France.
authors.forename: Marie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Simon-Cornu
mesh_terms: D000396:Air Pollutants, Radioactive / Q000378:metabolism*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018515:Plant Leaves / Q000378:metabolism; D006109:Poaceae / Q000378:metabolism*; D011847:Radioactive Fallout / Q000032:analysis*; D011868:Radioisotopes / Q000378:metabolism*; D035501:Uncertainty; D014675:Vegetables / Q000378:metabolism*
chemical_list: D000396:Air Pollutants, Radioactive; D011847:Radioactive Fallout; D011868:Radioisotopes
keywords: Bayesian statistics; Dry deposition; Foliar interception; Hierarchical modeling; Meta-analysis