title: Temporal patterns of Campylobacter contamination on chicken and their relationship to campylobacteriosis cases in the United States.
abstract: The proportion of Campylobacter contaminated food and water samples collected by different surveillance systems often exhibit seasonal patterns. In addition, the incidence of foodborne campylobacteriosis also tends to exhibit strong seasonal patterns. Of the various product classes, the occurrence of Campylobacter contamination can be high on raw poultry products, and chicken is often thought to be one of the leading food vehicles for campylobacteriosis. Two different federal agencies in the United States collected samples of raw chicken products and tested them for the presence of Campylobacter. During the same time period, a consortium of federal and state agencies operated a nationwide surveillance system to monitor cases of campylobacteriosis in the United States. This study uses a common modeling approach to estimate trends and seasonal patterns in both the proportion of raw chicken product samples that test positive for Campylobacter and cases of campylobacteriosis. The results generally support the hypothesis of a weak seasonal increase in the proportion of Campylobacter positive chicken samples in the summer months, though the number of Campylobacter on test-positive samples is slightly lower during this time period. In contrast, campylobacteriosis cases exhibit a strong seasonal pattern that generally precedes increases in contaminated raw chicken. These results suggest that while contaminated chicken products may be responsible for a substantial number of campylobacteriosis cases, they are most likely not the primary driver of the seasonal pattern in human illness.
authors.affiliation: Risk Assessment and Analytics Staff, Office of Public Health Science, Food Safety and Inspection Service, USDA, 2150 Centre Avenue, Building D, Fort Collins, CO 80526, United States. Electronic address: mike.williams@fsis.usda.gov.
authors.forename: Michael S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.affiliation: Risk Assessment and Analytics Staff, Office of Public Health Science, Food Safety and Inspection Service, USDA, 2150 Centre Avenue, Building D, Fort Collins, CO 80526, United States.
authors.forename: Neal J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Golden
authors.affiliation: Risk Assessment and Analytics Staff, Office of Public Health Science, Food Safety and Inspection Service, USDA, 2150 Centre Avenue, Building D, Fort Collins, CO 80526, United States.
authors.forename: Eric D
authors.initials: ED
authors.lastname: Ebel
authors.affiliation: National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System, Center for Veterinary Medicine, U.S. Food & Drug Administration, 8401 Muirkirk Road, Laurel, MD 20708, United States.
authors.forename: Emily T
authors.initials: ET
authors.lastname: Crarey
authors.affiliation: National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System, Center for Veterinary Medicine, U.S. Food & Drug Administration, 8401 Muirkirk Road, Laurel, MD 20708, United States.
authors.forename: Heather P
authors.initials: HP
authors.lastname: Tate
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002167:Campylobacter / Q000502:physiology*; D002169:Campylobacter Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D002645:Chickens; D004783:Environmental Microbiology; D005516:Food Microbiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008460:Meat / Q000382:microbiology*; D011202:Poultry Products / Q000382:microbiology; D012621:Seasons; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Campylobacteriosis; Retail chicken; Seasonality; Times series