title: [Leprosy trends in Tocantins, a hyperendemic State in the North of Brazil, 2001-2012].
abstract: Leprosy is hyperendemic in the State of Tocantins, Brazil. The aim of the study was to analyze trends in leprosy indicators in Tocantins from 2001 to 2012, based on analysis of data from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN), including incident cases living in Tocantins. The study calculated leprosy indicators and analyzed time trends using polynomial regression. There was a significant downward trend in overall case detection (R2 = 0.40; p < 0.05) and proportion of paucibacillary cases (R2 = 0.81). Detection rates remained stable in individuals < 15 years (R2 = 0.48; p > 0.05) and cases with grade 2 physical disability (R2 = 0.37; p > 0.05), as did the proportion of grade 2 cases (R2 = 0.49; p > 0.05). There were significant increases in the proportions of cases with grade 1 disability (R2 = 0.82; p < 0.05) and multibacillary cases (R2 = 0.81; p < 0.05). Tocantins has regions with high transmission and late diagnosis of leprosy, indicating heterogeneous dissemination of the disease in the time trend analysis.
authors.affiliation: Secretaria de Estado da Saúde do Tocantins, Palmas, Brasil.
authors.forename: Lorena Dias
authors.initials: LD
authors.lastname: Monteiro
authors.affiliation: Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brasil.
authors.forename: Francisco Rogerlândio
authors.initials: FR
authors.lastname: Martins-Melo
authors.affiliation: Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brasil.
authors.forename: Aline Lima
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Brito
authors.affiliation: Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brasil.
authors.forename: Mauricélia da Silveira
authors.initials: Mda S
authors.lastname: Lima
authors.affiliation: Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brasil.
authors.forename: Carlos Henrique
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Alencar
authors.affiliation: Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brasil.
authors.forename: Jorg
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Heukelbach
mesh_terms: D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D018563:Disease Notification; D019353:Endemic Diseases / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D063005:Health Information Systems; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D007918:Leprosy / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D058069:Neglected Diseases; D015995:Prevalence