title: Free Recall Episodic Memory Performance Predicts Dementia Ten Years prior to Clinical Diagnosis: Findings from the Betula Longitudinal Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Early dementia diagnosis is a considerable challenge. The present study examined the predictive value of cognitive performance for a future clinical diagnosis of late-onset Alzheimer's disease or vascular dementia in a random population sample.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cognitive performance was retrospectively compared between three groups of participants from the Betula longitudinal cohort. Group 1 developed dementia 11-22 years after baseline testing (n = 111) and group 2 after 1-10 years (n = 280); group 3 showed no deterioration towards dementia during the study period (n = 2,855). Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the predictive value of tests reflecting episodic memory performance, semantic memory performance, visuospatial ability, and prospective memory performance.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Age- and education-corrected performance on two free recall episodic memory tests significantly predicted dementia 10 years prior to clinical diagnosis. Free recall performance also predicted dementia 11-22 years prior to diagnosis when controlling for education, but not when age was added to the model.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The present results support the suggestion that two free recall-based tests of episodic memory function may be useful for detecting individuals at risk of developing dementia 10 years prior to clinical diagnosis.
authors.affiliation: CEDAR -Center for Demographic and Aging Research, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Carl-Johan
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Boraxbekk
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Department of Integrative Medical Biology, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Anders
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lundquist
authors.affiliation: Division of Psychiatry, Department of Clinical Sciences, Umeå University, Umeå, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Annelie
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Nordin
authors.affiliation: Division of Physiology, Department of Integrative Medical Biology, Stockholm, Sweden ; Division of Diagnostic Radiology, Department of Radiation Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Lars
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Nyberg
authors.affiliation: Aging Research Center, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Lars-Göran
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Nilsson
authors.affiliation: Division of Psychiatry, Department of Clinical Sciences, Umeå University, Umeå, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Rolf
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Adolfsson
keywords: Cognitive markers; Dementia; Episodic memory; Predictive validity