title: Modeling the probability of freeway lane-changing collision occurrence considering intervehicle interaction.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To better capture the relationships between lane-changing collisions and explanatory variables, a microscopic model is developed for freeway lane-changing collisions based on the interactions between lane-changing vehicles.
  
  
  METHODS
  The model applies an intervehicle interaction structure to account for the occurrence mechanism of lane-changing collisions. The occurrence mechanism can be described as the failure of a vehicle driver of an adjacent lane in avoiding the lane-changing vehicle, which disturbs the smooth movement of the adjacent lane vehicle and requires the driver's brake action to avoid an angle collision. This model is examined using data collected from freeways in Washington State during 2010 to 2011 and validated using lane-changing collision data for the SR 520 freeway.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The findings of this study show that generalized truck percentage has a significant decreasing effect on lane-changing collision risk, whereas average spacing and several roadway characteristics have significant increasing effects. The frequency of slight collisions during peak hours is higher than that during off-peak hours. Young female drivers are more likely to be involved in collisions during lane-changing than young male drivers, but the result for senior drivers is opposite, with older male drivers having a higher probability of lane-changing collisions than female drivers in the same age group.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The process of lane-changing collisions is a complicated maneuver. Truck percentage, average spacing, and good roadway characteristics, such as straight and level segment, in the target lane have a significant effect on the occurrence of lane-changing collisions. Age and gender are also 2 important factors contributing to the relationship between lane-changing collisions and explanatory variables.
authors.affiliation: a MOE Key Laboratory for Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University , Beijing , China.
authors.forename: Jiangfeng
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: b Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , University of Washington , Seattle , Washington.
authors.forename: Yinhai
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: b Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , University of Washington , Seattle , Washington.
authors.forename: Chaofan
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bi
authors.affiliation: c College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University , Shanghai , China.
authors.forename: Jinxian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Weng
authors.affiliation: a MOE Key Laboratory for Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University , Beijing , China.
authors.forename: Xuedong
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Yan
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D004779:Environment Design; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018986:Motor Vehicles / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012306:Risk; D014861:Washington; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: lane-changing collision; probability modeling; traffic safety; vehicle interaction