title: Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.
abstract: This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy.
authors.affiliation: Northern Arizona University, The W. A. Franke College of Business, 20 W. McConnell Drive, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA. Electronic address: xiaobing.zhao@nau.edu.
authors.forename: Xiaobing
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Northern Arizona University, The W. A. Franke College of Business, 20 W. McConnell Drive, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA. Electronic address: ding.du@nau.edu.
authors.forename: Ding
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Du
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000737:chemistry*; D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000737:chemistry*; D002980:Climate; D005544:Forecasting; D014943:Global Health; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D002245:Carbon Dioxide
keywords: Carbon dioxide emissions; Environmental Kuznets curve; Global warming; Reduced-form econometrics model