title: Spatial patterns of agricultural expansion determine impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage.
abstract: The agricultural expansion and intensification required to meet growing food and agri-based product demand present important challenges to future levels and management of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Influential actors such as corporations, governments, and multilateral organizations have made commitments to meeting future agricultural demand sustainably and preserving critical ecosystems. Current approaches to predicting the impacts of agricultural expansion involve calculation of total land conversion and assessment of the impacts on biodiversity or ecosystem services on a per-area basis, generally assuming a linear relationship between impact and land area. However, the impacts of continuing land development are often not linear and can vary considerably with spatial configuration. We demonstrate what could be gained by spatially explicit analysis of agricultural expansion at a large scale compared with the simple measure of total area converted, with a focus on the impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. Using simple modeling approaches for two regions of Brazil, we find that for the same amount of land conversion, the declines in biodiversity and carbon storage can vary two- to fourfold depending on the spatial pattern of conversion. Impacts increase most rapidly in the earliest stages of agricultural expansion and are more pronounced in scenarios where conversion occurs in forest interiors compared with expansion into forests from their edges. This study reveals the importance of spatially explicit information in the assessment of land-use change impacts and for future land management and conservation.
authors.affiliation: Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; bchaplin@stanford.edu.
authors.forename: Rebecca
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Chaplin-Kramer
authors.affiliation: Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
authors.forename: Richard P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Sharp
authors.affiliation: Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
authors.forename: Lisa
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Mandle
authors.affiliation: Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Unilever, Sharnbrook, Bedford MK44 1LQ, United Kingdom;
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sim
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108;
authors.forename: Justin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Johnson
authors.affiliation: Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Unilever, Sharnbrook, Bedford MK44 1LQ, United Kingdom;
authors.forename: Isabela
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Butnar
authors.affiliation: Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Unilever, Sharnbrook, Bedford MK44 1LQ, United Kingdom;
authors.forename: Llorenç
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Milà I Canals
authors.affiliation: Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
authors.forename: Bradley A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Eichelberger
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Computer Science, and Statistics, St. Lawrence University, Canton, NY 13617;
authors.forename: Ivan
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Ramler
authors.affiliation: Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Unilever, Sharnbrook, Bedford MK44 1LQ, United Kingdom;
authors.forename: Carina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Mueller
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bayreuth, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany;
authors.forename: Nikolaus
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: McLachlan
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Climate and Environment, 0030 Oslo, Norway; and.
authors.forename: Anahita
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Yousefi
authors.affiliation: Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Unilever, Sharnbrook, Bedford MK44 1LQ, United Kingdom;
authors.forename: Henry
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: King
authors.affiliation: The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203-1606.
authors.forename: Peter M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Kareiva
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D044822:Biodiversity; D001938:Brazil; D057965:Carbon Sequestration; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D004777:Environment; D008962:Models, Theoretical
keywords: agricultural expansion; deforestation; ecosystem services; edge effects; fragmentation