title: One hundred and fifty years of sprint and distance running - Past trends and future prospects.
abstract: Sprint and distance running have experienced remarkable performance improvements over the past century. Attempts to forecast running performances share an almost similarly long history but have relied so far on relatively short data series. Here, we compile a comprehensive set of season-best performances for eight Olympically contested running events. With this data set, we conduct (1) an exponential time series analysis and (2) a power-law experience curve analysis to quantify the rate of past performance improvements and to forecast future performances until the year 2100. We find that the sprint and distance running performances of women and men improve exponentially with time and converge at yearly rates of 4% ± 3% and 2% ± 2%, respectively, towards their asymptotic limits. Running performances can also be modelled with the experience curve approach, yielding learning rates of 3% ± 1% and 6% ± 2% for the women's and men's events, respectively. Long-term trends suggest that: (1) women will continue to run 10-20% slower than men, (2) 9.50 s over 100 m dash may only be broken at the end of this century and (3) several middle- and long-distance records may be broken within the next two to three decades. The prospects of witnessing a sub-2 hour marathon before 2100 remain inconclusive. Our results should be interpreted cautiously as forecasting human behaviour is intrinsically uncertain. The future season-best sprint and distance running performances will continue to scatter around the trends identified here and may yield unexpected improvements of standing world records.
authors.affiliation: a Institute for Energy and Transport, European Commission - Directorate General Joint Research Centre , Ispra , Italy.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Weiss
authors.affiliation: b Department of Mechanical Engineering, Colorado School of Mines , Golden , CO , USA.
authors.forename: Alexandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Newman
authors.affiliation: c European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School , Truro , UK.
authors.forename: Ceri
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Whitmore
authors.affiliation: d Center for the Study of Complex Systems , University of Michigan , Ann Arbor , MI , USA.
authors.forename: Stephan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Weiss
mesh_terms: D054874:Athletic Performance / Q000502:physiology / Q000639:trends*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D012420:Running / Q000502:physiology* / Q000639:trends; D013997:Time Factors; D014142:Track and Field
keywords: Sprint and distance running; experience curves; forecasting; learning rates; time series analysis