title: Mapping the zoonotic niche of Lassa fever in Africa.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic illness responsible for disease outbreaks across West Africa. It is a zoonosis, with the primary reservoir species identified as the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis. The host is distributed across sub-Saharan Africa while the virus' range appears to be restricted to West Africa. The majority of infections result from interactions between the animal reservoir and human populations, although secondary transmission between humans can occur, particularly in hospital settings.
  
  
  METHODS
  Using a species distribution model, the locations of confirmed human and animal infections with Lassa virus (LASV) were used to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential across sub-Saharan Africa.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Our results predict that 37.7 million people in 14 countries, across much of West Africa, live in areas where conditions are suitable for zoonotic transmission of LASV. Four of these countries, where at-risk populations are predicted, have yet to report any cases of Lassa fever.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These maps act as a spatial guide for future surveillance activities to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease and understand the anthropological, virological and zoological interactions necessary for viral transmission. Combining this zoonotic niche map with detailed patient travel histories can aid differential diagnoses of febrile illnesses, enabling a more rapid response in providing care and reducing the risk of onward transmission.
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK adrian.mylne@well.ox.ac.uk david.pigott@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Adrian Q N
authors.initials: AQ
authors.lastname: Mylne
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK adrian.mylne@well.ox.ac.uk david.pigott@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
authors.forename: David M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Pigott
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Joshua
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Longbottom
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Freya
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Shearer
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Kirsten A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Duda
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Jane P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Messina
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Daniel J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Weiss
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Catherine L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Moyes
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Nick
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Golding
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, USA Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
authors.forename: Simon I
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: Hay
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D006801:Humans; D007835:Lassa Fever / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D007836:Lassa virus / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D051189:Murinae; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D012376:Rodent Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D019371:Topography, Medical; D015047:Zoonoses
keywords: Boosted regression trees; LASV; Lassa fever; Mastomys natalensis; Species distribution models; Viral haemorrhagic fever