title: Investigation of adolescent accident predictive variables in hilly regions.
abstract: The study aims to determine the significant personal and environmental factors in predicting the adolescent accidents in the hilly regions taking into account two cities Hamirpur and Dharamshala, which lie at an average elevation of 700--1000 metres above the mean sea level (MSL). Detailed comparisons between the results of 2 cities are also studied. The results are analyzed to provide the list of most significant factors responsible for adolescent accidents. Data were collected from different schools and colleges of the city with the help of a questionnaire survey. Around 690 responses from Hamirpur and 460 responses from Dharamshala were taken for study and analysis. Standard deviations (SD) of various factors affecting accidents were calculated and factors with relatively very low SD were discarded and other variables were considered for correlations. Correlation was developed using Kendall's-tau and chi-square tests and factors those were found significant were used for modelling. They were - the victim's age, the character of road, the speed of vehicle, and the use of helmet for Hamirpur and for Dharamshala, the kind of vehicle involved was an added variable found responsible for adolescent accidents. A logistic regression was performed to know the effect of each category present in a variable on the occurrence of accidents. Though the age and the speed of vehicle were considered to be important factors for accident occurrence according to Indian accident data records, even the use of helmet comes out as a major concern. The age group of 15-18 and 18-21 years were found to be more susceptible to accidents than the higher age groups. Due to the presence of hilly area, the character of road becomes a major concern for cause of accidents and the topography of the area makes the kind of vehicle involved as a major variable for determining the severity of accidents.
authors.affiliation: a Post Graduate Student, Civil Engineering Department , National Institute of Technology , Hamirpur , Himachal Pradesh.
authors.forename: Malaya
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mohanty
authors.affiliation: b Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering Department , National Institute of Technology , Hamirpur , Himachal Pradesh.
authors.forename: Ankit
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gupta
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D005260:Female; D005843:Geography / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D012307:Risk Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Hosmer–Lemeshow test; accident modelling; chi-square tests; environmental factors; logistic regression; personal factors