title: Temporal modelling and forecasting of the airborne pollen of Cupressaceae on the southwestern Iberian Peninsula.
abstract: Cupressaceae includes species cultivated as ornamentals in the urban environment. This study aims to investigate airborne pollen data for Cupressaceae on the southwestern Iberian Peninsula over a 21-year period and to analyse the trends in these data and their relationship with meteorological parameters using time series analysis. Aerobiological sampling was conducted from 1993 to 2013 in Badajoz (SW Spain). The main pollen season for Cupressaceae lasted, on average, 58 days, ranging from 55 to 112 days, from 24 January to 22 March. Furthermore, a short-term forecasting model has been developed for daily pollen concentrations. The model proposed to forecast the airborne pollen concentration is described by one equation. This expression is composed of two terms: the first term represents the pollen concentration trend in the air according to the average concentration of the previous 10 days; the second term is obtained from considering the actual pollen concentration value, which is calculated based on the most representative meteorological parameters multiplied by a fitting coefficient. Temperature was the main meteorological factor by its influence over daily pollen forecast, being the rain the second most important factor. This model represents a good approach to a continuous balance model of Cupressaceae pollen concentration and is supported by a close agreement between the observed and predicted mean concentrations. The novelty of the proposed model is the analysis of meteorological parameters that are not frequently used in Aerobiology.
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Physics, Engineering Agricultural School, University of Extremadura, Avda. Adolfo Suárez s/n, Badajoz, Spain.
authors.forename: Inmaculada
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Silva-Palacios
authors.affiliation: Department of Construction, Polytechnic School, University of Extremadura, Avda. de la Universidad s/n, Cáceres, Spain. santiferro@unex.es.
authors.forename: Santiago
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fernández-Rodríguez
authors.affiliation: Department of Construction, Polytechnic School, University of Extremadura, Avda. de la Universidad s/n, Cáceres, Spain.
authors.forename: Pablo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Durán-Barroso
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Biology, Ecology and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Extremadura, Avda. Elvas s/n, Badajoz, Spain.
authors.forename: Rafael
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Tormo-Molina
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Biology, Ecology and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Extremadura, Avda. Elvas s/n, Badajoz, Spain.
authors.forename: José María
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Maya-Manzano
authors.affiliation: Section of Allergology, Hospital Infanta Cristina, Avda. Elvas s/n, Badajoz, Spain.
authors.forename: Ángela
authors.initials: Á
authors.lastname: Gonzalo-Garijo
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000485:Allergens / Q000032:analysis*; D029779:Cupressaceae; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011058:Pollen; D013030:Spain
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D000485:Allergens
keywords: Airborne pollen; Cupressaceae; Forecasting; Temporal modelling; Time series analysis