title: Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Progression-Free Survival in Patients with Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma Treated with Pazopanib.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop and validate a prognostic nomogram for predicting the probability of 12-month progression-free survival (PFS) for patients receiving first-line pazopanib for advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC).
  
  
  METHODS
  Statistical modeling was performed with data from 557 pazopanib-treated patients in the phase 3 COMPARZ trial. A multivariable Cox model was fit using known prognostic indicators. Variables included neutrophil count, serum levels of albumin and alkaline phosphatase, time from diagnosis to treatment, and bone metastases. Data from the pazopanib arm of a placebo-controlled phase 3 trial were used for validation.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The model included ten prognostic variables and was plotted as a nomogram for predicting the probability of 12-month PFS. Calibration plots suggested reasonable correspondence between predicted probabilities and actual proportions of PFS. The concordance index for 12-month PFS was 0.625. Significant associations (p < 0.05) were observed between PFS and bone metastases, time from diagnosis to treatment, albumin, and alkaline phosphatase. Albumin and alkaline phosphatase appeared to be influential predictors.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The nomogram predicts, with reasonable accuracy, PFS in patients with advanced RCC receiving pazopanib, based on their baseline clinical characteristics.
authors.affiliation: Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.
authors.forename: Michael W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Kattan
authors.forename: Cora N
authors.initials: CN
authors.lastname: Sternberg
authors.forename: Faisal
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Mehmud
authors.forename: Kamal
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Bhatt
authors.forename: Lauren
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: McCann
authors.forename: Robert J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Motzer
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000418:Albumins / Q000378:metabolism; D000469:Alkaline Phosphatase / Q000378:metabolism; D001859:Bone Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology / Q000556:secondary; D002292:Carcinoma, Renal Cell / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D004311:Double-Blind Method; D006801:Humans; D007191:Indazoles; D007680:Kidney Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology; D049451:Nomograms; D011379:Prognosis; D011743:Pyrimidines / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D013449:Sulfonamides / Q000627:therapeutic use*
chemical_list: D000418:Albumins; D007191:Indazoles; D011743:Pyrimidines; D013449:Sulfonamides; C516667:pazopanib; D000469:Alkaline Phosphatase