title: The frequency of explosive volcanic eruptions in Southeast Asia.
abstract: There are ~750 active and potentially active volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Ash from eruptions of volcanic explosivity index 3 (VEI 3) and smaller pose mostly local hazards while eruptions of VEI ≥ 4 could disrupt trade, travel, and daily life in large parts of the region. We classify Southeast Asian volcanoes into five groups, using their morphology and, where known, their eruptive history and degassing style. Because the eruptive histories of most volcanoes in Southeast Asia are poorly constrained, we assume that volcanoes with similar morphologies have had similar eruption histories. Eruption histories of well-studied examples of each morphologic class serve as proxy histories for understudied volcanoes in the class. From known and proxy eruptive histories, we estimate that decadal probabilities of VEI 4-8 eruptions in Southeast Asia are nearly 1.0, ~0.6, ~0.15, ~0.012, and ~0.001, respectively.
authors.affiliation: Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore ; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD USA.
authors.forename: Patrick L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Whelley
authors.affiliation: Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore ; Mirisbiris Garden and Nature Center, Bgy. Salvacion, Sto. Domingo, Albay Philippines.
authors.forename: Christopher G
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Newhall
authors.affiliation: Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
authors.forename: Kyle E
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Bradley
keywords: Eruption probability; Global Volcano Program; Large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions; Southeast Asia; Volcanic explosivity index; Volcano morphology