title: [Analysis on impact of meteorological factors on incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease based on Bayes spatial-temporal theory].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To understand the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in China.
  
  
  METHODS
  Bayesian hierarchical model [Besag, York, and Mollie' (BYM) model] was used to fit the data. The fitting effects of uncorrelated heterogeneity (UH) model, correlated heterogeneity (CH) model and spatial and temporal interaction model were compared and the best model was selected to analyze the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The UH+CH model with spatial and temporal interaction had best fitting effect (DIC=35,507.2). Rainfall (RR=1.0517, 95% CI: 1.0504-1.0525), average temperature (RR=1.0896, 95% CI: 1.078 1-1.1069), average relative humidity (RR=1.0890, 95% CI: 1.0821-1.0912), average air pressure (RR=1.0764, 95% CI: 1.0748-1.0779) and hours of sunshine (RR=1.0851, 95% CI: 1.0798-1.0875) were the meteorological factors influencing the incidence of HFMD.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The incidence of HFMD had spatial and temporal clustering characteristics. The meteorological factors were closely related with the incidence of HFMD.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China.
authors.forename: Chao
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Academy of Military Medical Sciences.
authors.forename: Liqun
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.affiliation: Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Academy of Military Medical Sciences.
authors.forename: Wuchun
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Cao
authors.affiliation: National Center for Public Health Surveillance and Information Services, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
authors.forename: Yingjie
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China.
authors.forename: Kai
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Cao
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China.
authors.forename: Qin
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China; Email: guoxiuh@ccmu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Xiuhua
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Guo
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D006232:Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D013696:Temperature