title: Evaluating the Effects of Temperature on Mortality in Manila City (Philippines) from 2006-2010 Using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model.
abstract: The effect of temperature on the risk of mortality has been described in numerous studies of category-specific (e.g., cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific) mortality in temperate and subtropical countries, with consistent findings of U-, V-, and J-shaped exposure-response functions. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between temperature and mortality in Manila City (Philippines), during 2006-2010 to identify the potential susceptible populations. We collected daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts from the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office and the meteorological variables were collected from the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. Temperature-mortality relationships were modeled using Poisson regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear models, and were used to perform cause-, sex-, age-, and season-specific analyses. The minimum mortality temperature was 30 °C, and increased risks of mortality were observed per 1 °C increase among elderly persons (RR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.31-1.80), women (RR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.27-1.69), and for respiratory causes of death (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.23-1.88). Seasonal effect modification was found to greatly affect the risks in the lower temperature range. Thus, the temperature-mortality relationship in Manila City exhibited an increased risk of mortality among elderly persons, women, and for respiratory-causes, with inherent effect modification in the season-specific analysis. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of public health policies to reduce the effects of air temperature on mortality, especially for these high-risk groups.
authors.affiliation: Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-8577, Japan. s1430399@u.tsukuba.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Xerxes T
authors.initials: XT
authors.lastname: Seposo
authors.affiliation: Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-8577, Japan. ngocdangytcc@gmail.com.|Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh City 70000, Vietnam. ngocdangytcc@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Tran Ngoc
authors.initials: TN
authors.lastname: Dang
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Health and Sports Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki Prefecture 305-8577, Japan. honda@taiiku.tsukuba.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Yasushi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Honda
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality; D002423:Cause of Death; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006358:Hot Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D010679:Philippines / Q000453:epidemiology; D012621:Seasons; D014505:Urban Population; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: all-cause mortality; category-specific mortality; distributed lag nonlinear model; temperature-mortality relationship