title: Calculation of lifetime lung cancer risks associated with radon exposure, based on various models and exposure scenarios.
abstract: The risk of lung cancer mortality up to 75 years of age due to radon exposure has been estimated for both male and female continuing, ex- and never-smokers, based on various radon risk models and exposure scenarios. We used risk models derived from (i) the BEIR VI analysis of cohorts of radon-exposed miners, (ii) cohort and nested case-control analyses of a European cohort of uranium miners and (iii) the joint analysis of European residential radon case-control studies. Estimates of the lifetime lung cancer risk due to radon varied between these models by just over a factor of 2 and risk estimates based on models from analyses of European uranium miners exposed at comparatively low rates and of people exposed to radon in homes were broadly compatible. For a given smoking category, there was not much difference in lifetime lung cancer risk between males and females. The estimated lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer for exposure to a concentration of 200 Bq m(-3) was in the range 2.98-6.55% for male continuing smokers and 0.19-0.42% for male never-smokers, depending on the model used and assuming a multiplicative relationship for the joint effect of radon and smoking. Stopping smoking at age 50 years decreases the lifetime risk due to radon by around a half relative to continuing smoking, but the risk for ex-smokers remains about a factor of 5-7 higher than that for never-smokers. Under a sub-multiplicative model for the joint effect of radon and smoking, the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer was still estimated to be substantially higher for continuing smokers than for never smokers. Radon mitigation-used to reduce radon concentrations at homes-can also have a substantial impact on lung cancer risk, even for persons in their 50 s; for each of continuing smokers, ex-smokers and never-smokers, radon mitigation at age 50 would lower the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer by about one-third. To maximise risk reductions, smokers in high-radon homes should both stop smoking and remediate their homes.
authors.affiliation: Public Health England, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Chilton, Didcot, Oxon OX11 0RQ, UK.
authors.forename: Nezahat
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Hunter
authors.forename: Colin R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Muirhead
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Bochicchio
authors.forename: Richard G E
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Haylock
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000396:Air Pollutants, Radioactive / Q000009:adverse effects*; D016902:Air Pollution, Indoor / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008906:Mining; D009381:Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced / Q000401:mortality*; D009784:Occupational Diseases / Q000401:mortality*; D016273:Occupational Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects*; D011886:Radon / Q000009:adverse effects*; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects; D013997:Time Factors; D014501:Uranium
chemical_list: D000396:Air Pollutants, Radioactive; D014501:Uranium; D011886:Radon