title: Human population dynamics in Europe over the Last Glacial Maximum.
abstract: The severe cooling and the expansion of the ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 27,000-19,000 y ago (27-19 ky ago) had a major impact on plant and animal populations, including humans. Changes in human population size and range have affected our genetic evolution, and recent modeling efforts have reaffirmed the importance of population dynamics in cultural and linguistic evolution, as well. However, in the absence of historical records, estimating past population levels has remained difficult. Here we show that it is possible to model spatially explicit human population dynamics from the pre-LGM at 30 ky ago through the LGM to the Late Glacial in Europe by using climate envelope modeling tools and modern ethnographic datasets to construct a population calibration model. The simulated range and size of the human population correspond significantly with spatiotemporal patterns in the archaeological data, suggesting that climate was a major driver of population dynamics 30-13 ky ago. The simulated population size declined from about 330,000 people at 30 ky ago to a minimum of 130,000 people at 23 ky ago. The Late Glacial population growth was fastest during Greenland interstadial 1, and by 13 ky ago, there were almost 410,000 people in Europe. Even during the coldest part of the LGM, the climatically suitable area for human habitation remained unfragmented and covered 36% of Europe.
authors.affiliation: Department of Philosophy, History, Culture and Art Studies, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland; miikka.tallavaara@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Miikka
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tallavaara
authors.affiliation: Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland;
authors.forename: Miska
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Luoto
authors.affiliation: Climate Change Research Unit, Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland; Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Natalia
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Korhonen
authors.affiliation: Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Heikki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Järvinen
authors.affiliation: Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland;
authors.forename: Heikki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Seppä
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological; D000465:Algorithms; D005075:Biological Evolution; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D003198:Computer Simulation; D017753:Ecosystem; D005060:Europe; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D046448:Ice Cover; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Paleolithic; climate change; demography; hunter-gatherers; niche modeling