title: Validation of the "Metroticket" model in a cohort of patients transplanted for hepatocellular carcinoma in southern Brazil.
abstract: This retrospective study evaluated the ability of the Metroticket model to predict five-yr post-transplant survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based only on explant data. Five-yr survival after transplant was estimated using the Metroticket Calculator, and observed survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Metroticket-predicted survival was compared between deceased and surviving patients using the Mann-Whitney test. The accuracy of Metroticket estimates in discriminating between these two patient groups was assessed using the c-statistic. Median patient age (n = 109) was 55.7 yr, and 72.5% of the sample were men. Metroticket-predicted and observed post-transplant survival at five yr was 71.1% and 58.7%, respectively. Predictions were calculated using the explant data of the 64 survivors and 45 deceased patients. Median five-yr survival was 72.9% in the former and 69.7% in the latter. The c-statistic of the Metroticket model for distinguishing surviving from deceased patients was 0.55. In this cohort, the Metroticket model was unable to accurately predict five-yr post-transplant survival based only on explant data.
authors.affiliation: Postgraduate Program in Medicine: Hepatology, School of Medicine, Universidade Federal de Ciências da Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
authors.forename: Adriana
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Machado
authors.affiliation: Liver Transplantation Group, Santa Casa de Misericórdia de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
authors.forename: Guillermo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Kiss
authors.affiliation: School of Medicine, Universidade Federal de Ciências da Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
authors.forename: Lucas
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ernani
authors.affiliation: Postgraduate Program in Medicine: Hepatology, School of Medicine, Universidade Federal de Ciências da Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.|Liver Transplantation Group, Santa Casa de Misericórdia de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
authors.forename: Claudio
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Marroni
authors.affiliation: Liver Transplantation Group, Santa Casa de Misericórdia de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
authors.forename: Maria Lúcia
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Zanotelli
authors.affiliation: Liver Transplantation Group, Santa Casa de Misericórdia de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
authors.forename: Guido
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Cantisani
authors.affiliation: Liver Transplantation Group, Santa Casa de Misericórdia de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
authors.forename: Carlos Thadeu
authors.initials: CT
authors.lastname: Cerski
authors.affiliation: Postgraduate Program in Medicine: Hepatology, School of Medicine, Universidade Federal de Ciências da Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
authors.forename: Gabriela
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Coral
authors.affiliation: Postgraduate Program in Medicine: Hepatology, School of Medicine, Universidade Federal de Ciências da Saúde de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.|Liver Transplantation Group, Santa Casa de Misericórdia de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
authors.forename: Ajacio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Brandão
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001938:Brazil; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D016031:Liver Transplantation / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D016896:Treatment Outcome
keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma; liver cancer; liver transplantations; patient outcome assessments; survival analysis