title: Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Future patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  Map changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options.
  
  
  METHODS
  The CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Future service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South-North) are also identified in some scenarios.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.
authors.affiliation: Environmental Change Institute (ECI), Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY UK.
authors.forename: Robert W
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Dunford
authors.affiliation: Environmental Change Institute (ECI), Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY UK.
authors.forename: Alison C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Environmental Change Institute (ECI), Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY UK.
authors.forename: Paula A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Harrison
authors.affiliation: TIAMASG Foundation, Sfintii Voievozi 6, 010963 Bucharest, Romania.
authors.forename: Diana
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Hanganu
keywords: Adaptation; Climate change impacts; Cross-sectoral interactions; Ecosystem services; Integrated assessment; Trade-offs