title: Scrub Typhus Incidence Modeling with Meteorological Factors in South Korea.
abstract: Since its recurrence in 1986, scrub typhus has been occurring annually and it is considered as one of the most prevalent diseases in Korea. Scrub typhus is a 3rd grade nationally notifiable disease that has greatly increased in Korea since 2000. The objective of this study is to construct a disease incidence model for prediction and quantification of the incidences of scrub typhus. Using data from 2001 to 2010, the incidence Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, which considers the time-lag between scrub typhus and minimum temperature, precipitation and average wind speed based on the Granger causality and spectral analysis, is constructed and tested for 2011 to 2012. Results show reliable simulation of scrub typhus incidences with selected predictors, and indicate that the seasonality in meteorological data should be considered.
authors.affiliation: Forecast and Control Division, Nakdong River Flood Control Office, Busan 604-851, Korea. firstsword@korea.kr.
authors.forename: Jaewon
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kwak
authors.affiliation: Columbia Water Center, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA. soojun78@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Soojun
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Hydro Science and Engineering, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do 411-712, Korea. kgh0518@kict.re.kr.
authors.forename: Gilho
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Dept. of Civil Engineering, Texas A & M University, TX 77843, USA. vsingh@tamu.edu.
authors.forename: Vijay P
authors.initials: VP
authors.lastname: Singh
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 402-751, Korea. hongsst81@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Seungjin
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hong
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 402-751, Korea. sookim@inha.ac.kr.
authors.forename: Hung Soo
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Kim
mesh_terms: D015994:Incidence; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D056910:Republic of Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D012612:Scrub Typhus / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012621:Seasons
keywords: ANN; meteorological variables; scrub typhus