title: Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011.
  
  
  METHODS
  In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents.
  
  
  RESULTS
  There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics and Computer, University of Social Welfare & Rehabilitation Sciences , Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Masoud
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Karimlou
authors.forename: Masoud
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Salehi
authors.forename: Mehdi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Imani
authors.forename: Agha-Fatemeh
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Hosseini
authors.forename: Afsaneh
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Dehnad
authors.forename: Nasim
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Vahabi
authors.forename: Mahmood
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bakhtiyari
mesh_terms: D000062:Accidents, Occupational / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D003906:Developing Countries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007492:Iran; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012621:Seasons; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: ARIMA modeling; Iran; Time series analysis; Work-related accidents