title: A statistical model for determining impact of wildland fires on Particulate Matter (PM₂.₅) in Central California aided by satellite imagery of smoke.
abstract: As the climate in California warms and wildfires become larger and more severe, satellite-based observational tools are frequently used for studying impact of those fires on air quality. However little objective work has been done to quantify the skill these satellite observations of smoke plumes have in predicting impacts to PM2.5 concentrations at ground level monitors, especially those monitors used to determine attainment values for air quality under the Clean Air Act. Using PM2.5 monitoring data from a suite of monitors throughout the Central California area, we found a significant, but weak relationship between satellite-observed smoke plumes and PM2.5 concentrations measured at the surface. However, when combined with an autoregressive statistical model that uses weather and seasonal factors to identify thresholds for flagging unusual events at these sites, we found that the presence of smoke plumes could reliably identify periods of wildfire influence with 95% accuracy.
authors.affiliation: USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, 800 Buchanan St., WAB, Albany, CA 94706, USA. Electronic address: hpreisler@fs.fed.us.
authors.forename: Haiganoush K
authors.initials: HK
authors.lastname: Preisler
authors.affiliation: Environmental Systems Graduate Group, University of California, Merced, 5200 N. Lake Road, Merced, CA 95343, USA. Electronic address: dschweizer@ucmerced.edu.
authors.forename: Donald
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Schweizer
authors.affiliation: School of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts, University of California, Merced, 5200 N. Lake Road, Merced, CA 95343, USA. Electronic address: rcisneros@ucmerced.edu.
authors.forename: Ricardo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Cisneros
authors.affiliation: USDA Forest Service, 1839 S. Newcomb, Porterville, CA 93257, USA. Electronic address: tprocter@fs.fed.us.
authors.forename: Trent
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Procter
authors.affiliation: NOAA/NESDIS, Satellite Analysis Branch, 5830 University Research Ct Suite 4035, College Park, MD 20740, USA. Electronic address: mark.ruminski@noaa.gov.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ruminski
authors.affiliation: USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Truckee Ranger District, 10811 Stockrest Springs Road, Truckee, CA 96161, USA. Electronic address: ltarnay@nps.gov.
authors.forename: Leland
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Tarnay
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D002140:California; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005390:Fires; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010316:Particle Size; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis*; D063809:Satellite Imagery; D012906:Smoke / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter; D012906:Smoke
keywords: Air pollution standards; Autoregressive model; Exceptional events; NOAA Hazard Mapping System