title: The stage-classified matrix models project a significant increase in biomass carbon stocks in China's forests between 2005 and 2050.
abstract: China's forests are characterized by young age, low carbon (C) density and a large plantation area, implying a high potential for increasing C sinks in the future. Using data of provincial forest area and biomass C density from China's forest inventories between 1994 and 2008 and the planned forest coverage of the country by 2050, we developed a stage-classified matrix model to predict biomass C stocks of China's forests from 2005 to 2050. The results showed that total forest biomass C stock would increase from 6.43 Pg C (1 Pg = 10(15) g) in 2005 to 9.97 Pg C (95% confidence interval: 8.98 ~ 11.07 Pg C) in 2050, with an overall net C gain of 78.8 Tg C yr(-1) (56.7 ~ 103.3 Tg C yr(-1); 1 Tg = 10(12) g). Our findings suggest that China's forests will be a large and persistent biomass C sink through 2050.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Huifeng
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Science, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Shaopeng
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Science, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, China [2] National Satellite Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Zhaodi
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Science, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Bing
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: 1] State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China [2] Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Science, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Jingyun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fang
mesh_terms: D018533:Biomass; D002244:Carbon / Q000032:analysis*; D002681:China; D017753:Ecosystem; D065928:Forests; D008962:Models, Theoretical
chemical_list: D002244:Carbon