title: Survival after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma-development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The objective of this study was to derive and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict disease-specific survival (DSS) after a curative intent resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHC).
  
  
  METHODS
  A nomogram was developed from 173 patients treated at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), New York, USA. The nomogram was externally validated in 133 patients treated at the Academic Medical Center (AMC), Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Prognostic accuracy was assessed with concordance estimates and calibration, and compared with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. The nomogram will be available as web-based calculator at mskcc.org/nomograms.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For all 306 patients, the median overall survival (OS) was 40 months and the median DSS 41 months. Median follow-up for patients alive at last follow-up was 48 months. Lymph node involvement, resection margin status, and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors in the derivation cohort (MSKCC). A nomogram with these prognostic factors had a concordance index of 0.73 compared with 0.66 for the AJCC staging system. In the validation cohort (AMC), the concordance index was 0.72, compared with 0.60 for the AJCC staging system. Calibration was good in the derivation cohort; in the validation cohort patients had a better median DSS than predicted by the model.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The proposed nomogram to predict DSS after curative intent resection of PHC had a better prognostic accuracy than the AJCC staging system. Calibration was suboptimal because DSS differed between the two institutions. The nomogram can inform patients and physicians, guide shared decision making for adjuvant therapy, and stratify patients in future randomized, controlled trials.
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA; Department of Surgery, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam. Electronic address: b.grootkoerkamp@erasmusmc.nl.
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Groot Koerkamp
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA; Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: J K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Wiggers
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gonen
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Doussot
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
authors.forename: P J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Allen
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: M G H
authors.initials: MGH
authors.lastname: Besselink
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
authors.forename: L H
authors.initials: LH
authors.lastname: Blumgart
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: O R C
authors.initials: ORC
authors.lastname: Busch
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
authors.forename: M I
authors.initials: MI
authors.lastname: D'Angelica
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
authors.forename: R P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: DeMatteo
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: D J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Gouma
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
authors.forename: T P
authors.initials: TP
authors.lastname: Kingham
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: T M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: van Gulik
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA.
authors.forename: W R
authors.initials: WR
authors.lastname: Jarnagin
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D018285:Klatskin Tumor / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D049451:Nomograms; D011379:Prognosis
keywords: cholangiocarcinoma; nomogram; prognostic model; survival