title: The potential of decision support systems to improve risk assessment for pollen beetle management in winter oilseed rape.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The reliance on and extensive use of pyrethroid insecticides have led to pyrethroid resistance in pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus). Widespread adoption of best practice in pollen beetle management is therefore needed. Decision support systems (DSSs) that identify the risk period(s) for pest migration can help to target monitoring and control efforts, but they must be accurate and labour efficient to gain the support of growers. Weather data and the phenology of pollen beetles in 44 winter oilseed rape crops across England over 4 years were used to compare the performance of two risk management tools: the DSS proPlant expert, which predicts migration risk according to a phenological model and local weather data, and 'rule-based advice', which depends on crop growth stage and a temperature threshold.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Both risk management tools were effective in prompting monitoring that would detect breaches of various control thresholds. However, the DSS more accurately predicted migration start and advised significantly fewer days of migration risk, consultation days and monitoring than did rule-based advice.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The proPlant expert DSS reliably models pollen beetle phenology. Use of such a DSS can focus monitoring effort to when it is most needed, facilitate the practical use of thresholds and help to prevent unnecessary insecticide applications and the development of insecticide resistance.
authors.affiliation: AgroEcology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire, UK.
authors.forename: Andrew W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Ferguson
authors.affiliation: AgroEcology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire, UK.
authors.forename: Matthew P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Skellern
authors.affiliation: proPlant GmbH, Münster, Germany.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Johnen
authors.affiliation: proPlant GmbH, Münster, Germany.
authors.forename: Julia-Sophie
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: von Richthofen
authors.affiliation: AgroEcology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire, UK.
authors.forename: Nigel P
authors.initials: NP
authors.lastname: Watts
authors.affiliation: Formerly at Bayer CropScience Ltd, Cambridge, UK (now retired).
authors.forename: Eileen
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bardsley
authors.affiliation: VSN International Ltd, Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire, UK.
authors.forename: Darren A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Murray
authors.affiliation: AgroEcology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire, UK.
authors.forename: Samantha M
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5577-2540
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Cook
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D029688:Brassica napus / Q000254:growth & development; D001517:Coleoptera; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004739:England; D007300:Insect Control / Q000379:methods*; D018570:Risk Assessment
keywords: Brassica napus; Brassicogethes aeneus; Meligethes aeneus; decision support systems; integrated pest management; monitoring; phenological model