title: Predicting Preterm Birth Among Women Screened by North Carolina's Pregnancy Medical Home Program.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine which combination of risk factors from Community Care of North Carolina's (CCNC) Pregnancy Medical Home (PMH) risk screening form was most predictive of preterm birth (PTB) by parity and race/ethnicity.
  
  
  METHODS
  This retrospective cohort included pregnant Medicaid patients screened by the PMH program before 24 weeks gestation who delivered a live birth in North Carolina between September 2011-September 2012 (N = 15,428). Data came from CCNC's Case Management Information System, Medicaid claims, and birth certificates. Logistic regression with backward stepwise elimination was used to arrive at the final models. To internally validate the predictive model, we used bootstrapping techniques.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The prevalence of PTB was 11 %. Multifetal gestation, a previous PTB, cervical insufficiency, diabetes, renal disease, and hypertension were the strongest risk factors with odds ratios ranging from 2.34 to 10.78. Non-Hispanic black race, underweight, smoking during pregnancy, asthma, other chronic conditions, nulliparity, and a history of a low birth weight infant or fetal death/second trimester loss were additional predictors in the final predictive model. About half of the risk factors prioritized by the PMH program remained in our final model (ROC = 0.66). The odds of PTB associated with food insecurity and obesity differed by parity. The influence of unsafe or unstable housing and short interpregnancy interval on PTB differed by race/ethnicity.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Evaluation of the PMH risk screen provides insight to ensure women at highest risk are prioritized for care management. Using multiple data sources, salient risk factors for PTB were identified, allowing for better-targeted approaches for PTB prevention.
authors.affiliation: Department of Maternal and Child Health, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Campus Box #8120, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-8120, USA. cmtucker@live.unc.edu.|Carolina Population Center, 206 W. Franklin St., Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA. cmtucker@live.unc.edu.
authors.forename: Christine M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Tucker
authors.affiliation: Community Care of North Carolina, 2300 Rexwoods Drive, Suite 100, Raleigh, NC, 27607, USA. kberrien@n3cn.org.
authors.forename: Kate
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Berrien
authors.affiliation: Division of Maternal Fetal Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 101 Manning Drive, Chapel Hill, NC, 27514, USA. kate_menard@med.unc.edu.
authors.forename: M Kathryn
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Menard
authors.affiliation: Carolina Population Center, 206 W. Franklin St., Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA. amy_herring@unc.edu.|Department of Biostatistics, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Campus Box #7420, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-7420, USA. amy_herring@unc.edu.
authors.forename: Amy H
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: Herring
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Maternal and Child Health, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Campus Box #7435, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-7435, USA. julie_daniels@unc.edu.
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Daniels
authors.affiliation: Department of Maternal and Child Health, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Campus Box #7445, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-7445, USA. drowley@email.unc.edu.
authors.forename: Diane L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Rowley
authors.affiliation: Department of Maternal and Child Health, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Campus Box #8120, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-8120, USA. carolyn_halpern@unc.edu.|Carolina Population Center, 206 W. Franklin St., Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA. carolyn_halpern@unc.edu.
authors.forename: Carolyn Tucker
authors.initials: CT
authors.lastname: Halpern
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001719:Birth Certificates; D005006:Ethnicity / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D016015:Logistic Models; D017533:Marital Status; D008403:Mass Screening; D008484:Medicaid; D009657:North Carolina / Q000453:epidemiology; D010298:Parity; D018802:Patient-Centered Care; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011247:Pregnancy; D047928:Premature Birth / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D014481:United States
keywords: Medicaid; North Carolina; Preterm birth; Race/ethnic disparities; Risk screening