title: Warming-Induced Decline of Picea crassifolia Growth in the Qilian Mountains in Recent Decades.
abstract: Warming-induced drought has widely affected forest dynamics in most places of the northern hemisphere. In this study, we assessed how climate warming has affected Picea crassifolia (Qinghai spruce) forests using tree growth-climate relationships and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) along the Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibet Plateau (the main range of Picea crassifolia). Based on the analysis on trees radial growth data from the upper tree line and the regional NDVI data, we identified a pervasive growth decline in recent decades, most likely caused by warming-induced droughts. The drought stress on Picea crassifolia radial growth were expanding from northeast to southwest and the favorable moisture conditions for tree growth were retreating along the identical direction in the study area over the last half century. Compared to the historical drought stress on tree radial growth in the 1920s, recent warming-induced droughts display a longer-lasting stress with a broader spatial distribution on regional forest growth. If the recent warming continues without the effective moisture increasing, then a notable challenge is developed for Picea crassifolia in the Qilian Mountains. Elaborate forest management is necessary to counteract the future risk of climate change effects in this region.
authors.affiliation: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China.
authors.forename: Li
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.affiliation: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China.
authors.forename: Lei
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
authors.forename: Xuemei
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Shao
authors.affiliation: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China.
authors.forename: Fengjing
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.affiliation: Ecosystem Dynamics, Institute for Botany and Landscape Ecology, University Greifswald, Grimmer Strasse 88, 17487, Greifswald, Germany.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wilmking
authors.affiliation: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China.
authors.forename: Yongxiang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D055864:Droughts; D004463:Ecology; D065928:Forests; D005843:Geography; D057232:Global Warming; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D028222:Picea / Q000254:growth & development*; D018609:Tibet