title: Random serum progesterone threshold to confirm ovulation.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Serum progesterone (P) rises after ovulation in the luteinisation process.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To identify an accurate progesterone threshold to confirm ovulation in the assessment of a woman's fertility.
  
  
  METHODS
  In a secondary analysis of an observational European multicentre study, this study included 107 women over 326 menstrual cycles and tracked daily first morning urine (FMU), changes in observed cervical mucus discharge, serum progesterone, and ultrasonography to identify the day of ovulation. A serum progesterone level was available for 102 women over a total 260 cycles with one or two P levels per cycle.
  
  
  RESULTS
  It was found that a single serum P⩾5ng/ml is highly specific with a specificity of 98.4 (95% CI 96.0-99.5), with a sensitivity of 89.6 (95% CI 85.2-92.9).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A random serum progesterone level ⩾5ng/ml confirms ovulation. This may be of use for clinicians wanting to confirm that ovulation has occurred.
authors.affiliation: Bruyère Research Institute, CT Lamont Primary Health Care Research Centre, 43 Bruyère St, K1N 5C8 Ottawa, Canada; University of Ottawa, Department of Family Medicine, 43 Bruyère St, K1N 5C8 Ottawa, Canada. Electronic address: Rene.leiva@mail.mcgill.ca.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Leiva
authors.affiliation: Department of Family Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Bouchard
authors.affiliation: DCN Diagnostics, Carlsbad, CA, USA.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Boehringer
authors.affiliation: Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, F-69003 Lyon, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000 Lyon, France; Université Lyon 1, F-69100 Villeurbanne, France; CNRS, UMR5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique-Santé, F-69100 Villeurbanne, France.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Abulla
authors.affiliation: Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, F-69003 Lyon, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000 Lyon, France; Université Lyon 1, F-69100 Villeurbanne, France; CNRS, UMR5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique-Santé, F-69100 Villeurbanne, France.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ecochard
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005189:False Positive Reactions; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D008597:Menstrual Cycle / Q000502:physiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D010060:Ovulation / Q000097:blood*; D011374:Progesterone / Q000097:blood*; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D011374:Progesterone
keywords: Fertility awareness methods; Infertility; Menstrual cycle; Ovulation; Progesterone; Ultrasound