title: Modelling Infectious Hematopoietic Necrosis Virus Dispersion from Marine Salmon Farms in the Discovery Islands, British Columbia, Canada.
abstract: Finite volume ocean circulation and particle tracking models are used to simulate water-borne transmission of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) among Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) farms in the Discovery Islands region of British Columbia, Canada. Historical simulations for April and July 2010 are carried out to demonstrate the seasonal impact of river discharge, wind, ultra-violet (UV) radiation, and heat flux conditions on near-surface currents, viral dispersion and survival. Numerical particles released from infected farm fish in accordance with IHNV shedding rates estimated through laboratory experiments are dispersed by model oceanic flows. Viral particles are inactivated by ambient UV radiation levels and by the natural microbial community at rates derived through laboratory studies. Viral concentration maps showing temporal and spatial changes are produced and combined with lab-determined minimum infectious dosages to estimate the infective connectivity among farms. Results demonstrate that neighbouring naïve farms can become exposed to IHNV via water-borne transport from an IHNV diseased farm, with a higher risk in April than July, and that many events in the sequence of farm outbreaks in 2001-2002 are consistent with higher risks in our farm connectivity matrix. Applications to other diseases, transfers between farmed and wild fish, and the effect of vaccinations are also discussed.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, B.C., V8L 4B2, Canada.
authors.forename: Michael G G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Foreman
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, B.C., V8L 4B2, Canada.
authors.forename: Ming
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 3190 Hammond Bay Road, Nanaimo, B.C., V9T 6N7, Canada.
authors.forename: Kyle A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Garver
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, B.C., V8L 4B2, Canada.
authors.forename: Dario
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Stucchi
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, B.C., V8L 4B2, Canada.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Chandler
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, B.C., V8L 4B2, Canada; School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, 3800 Finnerty Road, Victoria, B.C., V8P 5C2, Canada.
authors.forename: Di
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Wan
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, B.C., V8L 4B2, Canada.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Morrison
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, B.C., V8L 4B2, Canada.
authors.forename: Darren
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Tuele
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001955:British Columbia; D005393:Fish Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D005398:Fisheries; D029142:Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus; D008954:Models, Biological; D018353:Rhabdoviridae Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000662:veterinary; D020317:Salmo salar / Q000821:virology*