title: More green infrastructure is required to maintain ecosystem services under current trends in land-use change in Europe.
abstract: Green infrastructure (GI), a network of nature, semi-natural areas and green space, delivers essential ecosystem services which underpin human well-being and quality of life. Maintaining ecosystem services through the development of GI is therefore increasingly recognized by policies as a strategy to cope with potentially changing conditions in the future. This paper assessed how current trends of land-use change have an impact on the aggregated provision of eight ecosystem services at the regional scale of the European Union, measured by the Total Ecosystem Services Index (TESI8). Moreover, the paper reports how further implementation of GI across Europe can help maintain ecosystem services at baseline levels. Current demographic, economic and agricultural trends, which affect land use, were derived from the so called Reference Scenario. This scenario is established by the European Commission to assess the impact of energy and climate policy up to 2050. Under the Reference Scenario, economic growth, coupled with the total population, stimulates increasing urban and industrial expansion. TESI8 is expected to decrease across Europe between 0 and 5 % by 2020 and between 10 and 15 % by 2050 relative to the base year 2010. Based on regression analysis, we estimated that every additional percent increase of the proportion of artificial land needs to be compensated with an increase of 2.2 % of land that qualifies as green infrastructure in order to maintain ecosystem services at 2010 levels.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Joachim
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Maes
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Ana
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Barbosa
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Claudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Baranzelli
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Grazia
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Zulian
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Filipe
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Batista E Silva
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Ine
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Vandecasteele
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Roland
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hiederer
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Camino
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Liquete
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Maria Luisa
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Paracchini
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Mubareka
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Jacobs-Crisioni
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Carolina Perpiña
authors.initials: CP
authors.lastname: Castillo
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA Italy.
authors.forename: Carlo
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Lavalle
keywords: Biodiversity strategy; Ecosystem services; European Union; Green infrastructure; Land-use model; Scenario