title: Forecasting and Analyzing the Disease Burden of Aged Population in China, Based on the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Forecasting the disease burden of the elderly will contribute to make a comprehensive assessment about physical and mental status of the elderly in China and provide a basis for reducing the negative consequences of aging society to a minimum.
  
  
  METHODS
  This study collected data from a public database online provided by Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Grey model GM (1, 1) was used to forecast all-cause and disease-specific rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2015 and 2020.
  
  
  RESULTS
  After cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis, we found that non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were still the greatest threats in the elderly, followed by injuries. As for 136 predicted causes, more than half of NCDs increased obviously with age, less than a quarter of communicable, material, neonatal, and nutritional disorders or injuries had uptrend.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The findings display the health condition of the Chinese elderly in the future, which will provide critical information for scientific and sociological researches on preventing and reducing the risks of aging society.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China. baochengzhen@sina.com.
authors.forename: Chengzhen
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bao
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China. xabnam316@163.com.
authors.forename: Mamat
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mayila
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China. kimi11089@126.com.
authors.forename: Zhenhua
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Ye
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China. wangjianbing1980@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Jianbing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China. jinmj@zju.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Mingjuan
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jin
authors.affiliation: School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China. hewenjiong@163.com.
authors.forename: Wenjiong
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: He
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China. ck@zju.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D017281:Cost of Illness; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D005853:Geriatrics; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008875:Middle Aged; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends*; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: China; Grey model; aged population; disease burden