title: The role of superspreading in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) transmission.
abstract: As at 15 June 2015, a large transmission cluster of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERSCoV)was ongoing in South Korea. To examine the potential for such events, we estimated the level of heterogeneity in MERS-CoV transmission by analyzing data on cluster size distributions. We found substantial potential for superspreading; even though it is likely that R0 < 1 overall, our analysis indicates that cluster sizes of over 150 cases are not unexpected forMERS-CoV infection.
authors.affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Kucharski
authors.forename: C L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Althaus
mesh_terms: D016000:Cluster Analysis; D017934:Coronavirus / Q000302:isolation & purification / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D018352:Coronavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D065207:Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus / Q000302:isolation & purification / Q000472:pathogenicity; D056910:Republic of Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D045169:Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology