title: Lagged influence of North Atlantic Oscillation on population dynamics of a Mediterranean terrestrial salamander.
abstract: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climatic pattern that strongly influences the atmospheric circulation in the northern Hemisphere and by consequence the long-term variability of marine and terrestrial ecosystem over great part of northern Europe and western Mediterranean. In the Mediterranean, the effects of the NAO on vertebrates has been studied mainly on bird populations but was rarely analysed in ectothermic animals, and in particular in amphibians. In this study, we investigated the relationships between winter, spring and summer NAO indexes and the long-term population dynamics of the plethodontid salamander Speleomantes strinatii. This terrestrial salamander was monitored inside an artificial cave in NW Italy for 24 consecutive years. The relationships between seasonal NAO indexes and the salamander dynamics were assessed by cross-correlation function (CCF) analysis, after prewhitening the time series by autoregressive moving average statistical modelling. Results of CCF analyses indicated that the salamander abundance varied in relation to the one-year ahead winter NAO (P = 0.018), while no relationships were found with spring and summer indexes. These results strengthen some previous findings that suggested a high sensitivity of temperate terrestrial amphibians to wintertime climatic conditions.
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Scienze Della Terra Dell'Ambiente e Della Vita (DISTAV), Università di Genova, Corso Europa 26, I-16132, Genova, Italy. salvidio@dipteris.unige.it.|Gruppo Speleologico Ligure "Arturo Issel", Villa Comunale ex Borzino, Casella Postale 21, I-16012, Busalla (GE), Italy. salvidio@dipteris.unige.it.
authors.forename: Sebastiano
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2247-8307
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Salvidio
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Scienze Della Terra Dell'Ambiente e Della Vita (DISTAV), Università di Genova, Corso Europa 26, I-16132, Genova, Italy.|Gruppo Speleologico Ligure "Arturo Issel", Villa Comunale ex Borzino, Casella Postale 21, I-16012, Busalla (GE), Italy.
authors.forename: Fabrizio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Oneto
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Università Cà Foscari, Campo Della Celestia, 30122, Venezia, Italy.
authors.forename: Dario
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Ottonello
authors.affiliation: Gruppo Speleologico Ligure "Arturo Issel", Villa Comunale ex Borzino, Casella Postale 21, I-16012, Busalla (GE), Italy.
authors.forename: Mauro V
authors.initials: MV
authors.lastname: Pastorino
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D007558:Italy; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014562:Caudata
keywords: ARMA; Amphibians; Cross-correlation function; Mediterranean; Underground habitat; Winter climate