title: [Development and Application of a Performance Prediction Model for Home Care Nursing Based on a Balanced Scorecard using the Bayesian Belief Network].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study was conducted to develop key performance indicators (KPIs) for home care nursing (HCN) based on a balanced scorecard, and to construct a performance prediction model of strategic objectives using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN).
  
  
  METHODS
  This methodological study included four steps: establishment of KPIs, performance prediction modeling, development of a performance prediction model using BBN, and simulation of a suggested nursing management strategy. An HCN expert group and a staff group participated. The content validity index was analyzed using STATA 13.0, and BBN was analyzed using HUGIN 8.0.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We generated a list of KPIs composed of 4 perspectives, 10 strategic objectives, and 31 KPIs. In the validity test of the performance prediction model, the factor with the greatest variance for increasing profit was maximum cost reduction of HCN services. The factor with the smallest variance for increasing profit was a minimum image improvement for HCN. During sensitivity analysis, the probability of the expert group did not affect the sensitivity. Furthermore, simulation of a 10% image improvement predicted the most effective way to increase profit.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  KPIs of HCN can estimate financial and non-financial performance. The performance prediction model for HCN will be useful to improve performance.
authors.affiliation: College of Nursing, Gachon University, Incheon, Korea.
authors.forename: Wonjung
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Noh
authors.affiliation: College of Nursing, Korea University, Seoul, Korea. seomun@korea.ac.kr.
authors.forename: Gyeongae
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Seomun
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D006699:Home Care Services / Q000191:economics*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D016730:Program Development; D013647:Task Performance and Analysis
keywords: Bayesian prediction; Hospital-based home care services; Task performance