title: Is long-term exposure to traffic pollution associated with mortality? A small-area study in London.
abstract: Long-term exposure to primary traffic pollutants may be harmful for health but few studies have investigated effects on mortality. We examined associations for six primary traffic pollutants with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in 2003-2010 at small-area level using linear and piecewise linear Poisson regression models. In linear models most pollutants showed negative or null association with all-cause, cardiovascular or respiratory mortality. In the piecewise models we observed positive associations in the lowest exposure range (e.g. relative risk (RR) for all-cause mortality 1.07 (95% credible interval (CI) = 1.00-1.15) per 0.15 μg/m(3) increase in exhaust related primary particulate matter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5)) whereas associations in the highest exposure range were negative (corresponding RR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.91-0.96). Overall, there was only weak evidence of positive associations with mortality. That we found the strongest positive associations in the lowest exposure group may reflect residual confounding by unmeasured confounders that varies by exposure group.
authors.affiliation: Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. Electronic address: jaana.halonen@ttl.fi.
authors.forename: Jaana I
authors.initials: JI
authors.lastname: Halonen
authors.affiliation: UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit, MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Marta
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Blangiardo
authors.affiliation: UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit, MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Mireille B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Toledano
authors.affiliation: UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit, MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Daniela
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Fecht
authors.affiliation: UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit, MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gulliver
authors.affiliation: UK Small Area Health Statistics Unit, MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Rebecca
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ghosh
authors.affiliation: MRC-PHE Centre for Environmental Health, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: H Ross
authors.initials: HR
authors.lastname: Anderson
authors.affiliation: MRC-PHE Centre for Environmental Health, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Sean D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Beevers
authors.affiliation: MRC-PHE Centre for Environmental Health, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Dajnak
authors.affiliation: MRC-PHE Centre for Environmental Health, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Frank J
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Kelly
authors.affiliation: Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Wilkinson
authors.affiliation: Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; MRC-PHE Centre for Environmental Health, King's College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Cathryn
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Tonne
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000032:analysis*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008131:London / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012044:Regression Analysis; D017062:Small-Area Analysis; D013997:Time Factors; D001335:Vehicle Emissions / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter; D001335:Vehicle Emissions
keywords: Epidemiology; Mortality; Small-area; Traffic pollution