title: Drivers for the renaissance of coal.
abstract: Coal was central to the industrial revolution, but in the 20th century it increasingly was superseded by oil and gas. However, in recent years coal again has become the predominant source of global carbon emissions. We show that this trend of rapidly increasing coal-based emissions is not restricted to a few individual countries such as China. Rather, we are witnessing a global renaissance of coal majorly driven by poor, fast-growing countries that increasingly rely on coal to satisfy their growing energy demand. The low price of coal relative to gas and oil has played an important role in accelerating coal consumption since the end of the 1990s. In this article, we show that in the increasingly integrated global coal market the availability of a domestic coal resource does not have a statistically significant impact on the use of coal and related emissions. These findings have important implications for climate change mitigation: If future economic growth of poor countries is fueled mainly by coal, ambitious mitigation targets very likely will become infeasible. Building new coal power plant capacities will lead to lock-in effects for the next few decades. If that lock-in is to be avoided, international climate policy must find ways to offer viable alternatives to coal for developing countries.
authors.affiliation: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, 10829 Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Department Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany steckel@mcc-berlin.net edenhofer@pik-potsdam.de.
authors.forename: Jan Christoph
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Steckel
authors.affiliation: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, 10829 Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Department Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin, 10623 Berlin, Germany steckel@mcc-berlin.net edenhofer@pik-potsdam.de.
authors.forename: Ottmar
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Edenhofer
authors.affiliation: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, 10829 Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jakob
keywords: Kaya decomposition; climate change mitigation; coal; developing countries