title: Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand.
  
  
  METHODS
  A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts.
authors.affiliation: National Institute for Health Innovation, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Cliona
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ni Mhurchu
authors.affiliation: National Institute for Health Innovation, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Helen
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Eyles
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Murat
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Genc
authors.affiliation: British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Scarborough
authors.affiliation: British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Mike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rayner
authors.affiliation: British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Anja
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mizdrak
authors.affiliation: British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Kelechi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nnoaham
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Tony
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Blakely
mesh_terms: D004032:Diet / Q000191:economics*; D004194:Disease / Q000191:economics*; D016021:Epidemiologic Studies; D005006:Ethnicity; D005502:Food / Q000191:economics*; D006262:Health / Q000191:economics*; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income; D017059:Models, Econometric; D009026:Mortality; D009520:New Zealand / Q000453:epidemiology; D013660:Taxes / Q000191:economics*