title: Model to predict inpatient mortality from information gathered at presentation to an emergency department: The Triage Information Mortality Model (TIMM).
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To derive and validate a mortality prediction model from information available at ED triage.
  
  
  METHODS
  Multivariable logistic regression of variables from administrative datasets to predict inpatient mortality of patients admitted through an ED. Accuracy of the model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. The model was derived, internally validated and externally validated. Derivation and internal validation were in a tertiary referral hospital and external validation was in an urban community hospital.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The ROC-AUC for the derivation set was 0.859 (95% CI 0.856-0.865), for the internal validation set was 0.848 (95% CI 0.840-0.856) and for the external validation set was 0.837 (95% CI 0.823-0.851). Calibration assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was good.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The model successfully predicts inpatient mortality from information available at the point of triage in the ED.
authors.affiliation: Emergency Medicine and Prehospital Science, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
authors.forename: David Jo
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Teubner
authors.affiliation: School of Nursing and Midwifery/Centre for Quality and Patient Safety Research, Deakin University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Considine
authors.affiliation: Flinders Medical Centre, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Hakendorf
authors.affiliation: Flinders Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
authors.forename: Susan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Intensive and Critical Care Unit, Flinders Medical Centre, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
authors.forename: Andrew D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Bersten
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014218:Triage / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: hospital mortality; mortality prediction; triage