title: OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.
abstract: The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, CNRS-Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers, F-06230 Villefranche-sur-mer, France. Sorbonne Universités, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Univ Paris 06, Observatoire Océanologique, F-06230 Villefranche-sur-mer, France. Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France. gattuso@obs-vlfr.fr.
authors.forename: J-P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Gattuso
authors.affiliation: Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Magnan
authors.affiliation: Secretariat of the Pacific Community, B.P. D5, 98848 Noumea Cedex, New Caledonia.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Billé
authors.affiliation: Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program, University of British Columbia (UBC), Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
authors.forename: W W L
authors.initials: WW
authors.lastname: Cheung
authors.affiliation: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570, Bremenrhaven, Germany.
authors.forename: E L
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Howes
authors.affiliation: Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Joos
authors.affiliation: Centre Scientifique de Monaco, 8 Quai Antoine Ier, MC-98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Science du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212, CNRS-Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Gif sur Yvette, France.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Allemand
authors.affiliation: Ocean Conservancy, 1300 19th Street NW, 8th Floor, Washington, DC 20036, USA.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Bopp
authors.affiliation: Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740, USA.
authors.forename: S R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Cooley
authors.affiliation: Global Change Institute and Australian Research Council Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland, Building 20, St Lucia, 4072 Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: C M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Eakin
authors.affiliation: School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, 3707 Brooklyn Avenue NE, Seattle, WA 98105, USA.
authors.forename: O
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Hoegh-Guldberg
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
authors.forename: R P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Kelly
authors.affiliation: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570, Bremenrhaven, Germany.
authors.forename: H-O
authors.initials: HO
authors.lastname: Pörtner
authors.affiliation: Scottish Natural Heritage, 231 Corstorphine Road, Edinburgh EH12 7AT, Scotland.
authors.forename: A D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Rogers
authors.affiliation: IUCN, Rue Mauverney 28, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland.
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Baxter
authors.affiliation: Environment Laboratories, International Atomic Energy Agency, 4a Quai Antoine 1er, MC-98000 Monaco, Principality of Monaco.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Laffoley
authors.affiliation: Program on Science, Technology, and Society, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Osborn
authors.affiliation: Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France. Fisheries Economics Research Unit, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rankovic
authors.affiliation: Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rochette
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK.
authors.forename: U R
authors.initials: UR
authors.lastname: Sumaila
authors.affiliation: Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, 27 rue Saint Guillaume, F-75007 Paris, France.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Treyer
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Turley
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D017756:Aquaculture; D059001:Aquatic Organisms; D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D017753:Ecosystem; D057232:Global Warming; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006262:Health; D006801:Humans; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D012306:Risk; D014195:Travel
chemical_list: D002245:Carbon Dioxide