title: The distribution of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) in the River Thames Catchment under the scenarios of climate change.
abstract: Measurements have shown low levels of PCBs in water but relatively high concentrations in the resident fish of the River Thames (UK). To better understand the distribution and behaviour of PCBs in the Thames river basin and their potential risks, a level III fugacity model was applied to selected PCB congeners (PCB 52, PCB 118 and PCB 153). The modelling results indicated that fish and sediments represent environmental compartments with the highest PCB concentrations; but the greatest mass of PCBs (over 70%) is likely to remain in the soil. As emissions decline, soil could then act as a significant secondary source of PCBs with the river bed-sediment functioning as a long-term reservoir of PCBs. The predicted changes in temperature and rainfall forecast in the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) over the next 80 years had only a modest influence on PCB fate in the model. The most significant result was a tendency for climate change to enhance the evaporation of PCBs from soil to air in the Thames catchment.
authors.affiliation: School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK. Electronic address: qiong.lu@ouce.ox.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Qiong
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.affiliation: Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK.
authors.forename: Andrew C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Johnson
authors.affiliation: Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK.
authors.forename: Monika D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Jürgens
authors.affiliation: Lancaster Environment Centre, LEC Building, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK.
authors.forename: Andy
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sweetman
authors.affiliation: Geology Department, Bowers Hall, State University of New York College at Cortland, USA.
authors.forename: Li
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Jin
authors.affiliation: School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK. Electronic address: paul.whitehead@ouce.ox.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Whitehead
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D004739:England; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D019015:Geologic Sediments / Q000737:chemistry; D011078:Polychlorinated Biphenyls / Q000032:analysis*; D045483:Rivers / Q000737:chemistry*; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical; D011078:Polychlorinated Biphenyls
keywords: Climate change; Fish; Fugacity; PCBs; River Thames