title: Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes.
abstract: This study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed.
authors.affiliation: Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield Sheffield, UK.
authors.forename: I P
authors.initials: IP
authors.lastname: Pakhotin
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, California, USA ; Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University Moscow, Russia.
authors.forename: A Y
authors.initials: AY
authors.lastname: Drozdov
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, California, USA ; Department of Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA ; Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology Skolkovo, Russia.
authors.forename: Y Y
authors.initials: YY
authors.lastname: Shprits
authors.affiliation: Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield Sheffield, UK.
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Boynton
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, California, USA.
authors.forename: D A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Subbotin
authors.affiliation: Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield Sheffield, UK.
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Balikhin
keywords: radiation belts; space weather