title: Value of Information Analysis Applied to the Economic Evaluation of Interventions Aimed at Reducing Juvenile Delinquency: An Illustration.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To investigate whether a value of information analysis, commonly applied in health care evaluations, is feasible and meaningful in the field of crime prevention.
  
  
  METHODS
  Interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency are increasingly being evaluated according to their cost-effectiveness. Results of cost-effectiveness models are subject to uncertainty in their cost and effect estimates. Further research can reduce that parameter uncertainty. The value of such further research can be estimated using a value of information analysis, as illustrated in the current study. We built upon an earlier published cost-effectiveness model that demonstrated the comparison of two interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency. Outcomes were presented as costs per criminal activity free year.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At a societal willingness-to-pay of €71,700 per criminal activity free year, further research to eliminate parameter uncertainty was valued at €176 million. Therefore, in this illustrative analysis, the value of information analysis determined that society should be willing to spend a maximum of €176 million in reducing decision uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness of the two interventions. Moreover, the results suggest that reducing uncertainty in some specific model parameters might be more valuable than in others.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Using a value of information framework to assess the value of conducting further research in the field of crime prevention proved to be feasible. The results were meaningful and can be interpreted according to health care evaluation studies. This analysis can be helpful in justifying additional research funds to further inform the reimbursement decision in regard to interventions for juvenile delinquents.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Department of Psychiatry, section Medical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Viersprong Institute for Studies on Personality Disorders (VISPD), Halsteren, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: Hester V
authors.initials: HV
authors.lastname: Eeren
authors.affiliation: Institute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: Saskia J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Schawo
authors.affiliation: Viersprong Institute for Studies on Personality Disorders (VISPD), Halsteren, the Netherlands; Behavioural Science Institute, Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: Ron H J
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Scholte
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, section Medical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Viersprong Institute for Studies on Personality Disorders (VISPD), Halsteren, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jan J V
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Busschbach
authors.affiliation: Institute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: Leona
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hakkaart
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D003258:Consumer Behavior; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D003415:Crime / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003662:Decision Theory; D005196:Family Therapy / Q000191:economics / Q000458:organization & administration; D005240:Feasibility Studies; D016352:Group Homes / Q000191:economics / Q000458:organization & administration; D006801:Humans; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008390:Markov Chains; D018803:Models, Economic; D009426:Netherlands; D015397:Program Evaluation / Q000191:economics*; D011640:Public Policy; D012945:Social Values; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D035501:Uncertainty