title: Coastal Vertebrate Exposure to Predicted Habitat Changes Due to Sea Level Rise.
abstract: Sea level rise (SLR) may degrade habitat for coastal vertebrates in the Southeastern United States, but it is unclear which groups or species will be most exposed to habitat changes. We assessed 28 coastal Georgia vertebrate species for their exposure to potential habitat changes due to SLR using output from the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model and information on the species' fundamental niches. We assessed forecasted habitat change up to the year 2100 using three structural habitat metrics: total area, patch size, and habitat permanence. Almost all of the species (n = 24) experienced negative habitat changes due to SLR as measured by at least one of the metrics. Salt marsh and ocean beach habitats experienced the most change (out of 16 categorical land cover types) across the three metrics and species that used salt marsh extensively (rails and marsh sparrows) were ranked highest for exposure to habitat changes. Species that nested on ocean beaches (Diamondback Terrapins, shorebirds, and terns) were also ranked highly, but their use of other foraging habitats reduced their overall exposure. Future studies on potential effects of SLR on vertebrates in southeastern coastal ecosystems should focus on the relative importance of different habitat types to these species' foraging and nesting requirements. Our straightforward prioritization approach is applicable to other coastal systems and can provide insight to managers on which species to focus resources, what components of their habitats need to be protected, and which locations in the study area will provide habitat refuges in the face of SLR.
authors.affiliation: Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA. eahunter@uga.edu.
authors.forename: Elizabeth A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Hunter
authors.affiliation: Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA.
authors.forename: Nathan P
authors.initials: NP
authors.lastname: Nibbelink
authors.affiliation: Skidaway Institute of Oceanography, University of Georgia, Savannah, GA, 31411, USA.
authors.forename: Clark R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Alexander
authors.affiliation: School of Agriculture, Forest, and Environmental Science, Clemson University, Clemson, SC, 29634, USA.
authors.forename: Kyle
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Barrett
authors.affiliation: Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA.
authors.forename: Lara F
authors.initials: LF
authors.lastname: Mengak
authors.affiliation: Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA.
authors.forename: Rachel K
authors.initials: RK
authors.lastname: Guy
authors.affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey, Georgia Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA.
authors.forename: Clinton T
authors.initials: CT
authors.lastname: Moore
authors.affiliation: Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA.
authors.forename: Robert J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Cooper
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological; D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D056727:Endangered Species; D005845:Georgia; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014714:Vertebrates / Q000502:physiology*; D053833:Wetlands
keywords: Coastal ecosystems; Endangered species; Habitat loss; Salt marsh; Sea level rise; Vulnerability