title: Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh.
abstract: This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001-2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher.
authors.affiliation: Development Research Group, World Bank, 1818 H Street, Washington, DC, 20008, USA. sdasgupta@worldbank.org.
authors.forename: Susmita
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Dasgupta
authors.affiliation: Soil Research Development Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Mrittika Bhaban, Krishi Khamar Sarak, Dhaka, 1215, Bangladesh. moqbul.hossain84@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Md Moqbul
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Hossain
authors.affiliation: World Bank, House 360, Road 5, Baridhara DOHS, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh. Mainuldpg@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Mainul
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Huq
authors.affiliation: World Resources Institute, 5840 Tanglewood Drive, Bethesda, MD, 20817, USA. wheelrdr@gmail.com.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Wheeler
mesh_terms: D001459:Bangladesh; D057231:Climate Change; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D017059:Models, Econometric; D011891:Rain; D045483:Rivers; D054712:Salinity; D012987:Soil / Q000737:chemistry*; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D012987:Soil
keywords: Bangladesh; Climate change; Coastal areas; Soil salinity