title: Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood.
authors.affiliation: From the Division of Cardiology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (B.S.W.); Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (B.S.W., L.L.Y., J.S.L., D.M.K.); Business Intelligence and Analytics, Iora Health, Cambridge, MA (W.K.); Health Economics and Reimbursement, Boston Scientific, Marlborough, MA (M.C.); and Center for Clinical Evidence Synthesis, ICRHPS, Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (G.R.).
authors.forename: Benjamin S
authors.initials: BS
authors.lastname: Wessler
authors.affiliation: From the Division of Cardiology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (B.S.W.); Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (B.S.W., L.L.Y., J.S.L., D.M.K.); Business Intelligence and Analytics, Iora Health, Cambridge, MA (W.K.); Health Economics and Reimbursement, Boston Scientific, Marlborough, MA (M.C.); and Center for Clinical Evidence Synthesis, ICRHPS, Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (G.R.).
authors.forename: Lana
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Lai Yh
authors.affiliation: From the Division of Cardiology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (B.S.W.); Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (B.S.W., L.L.Y., J.S.L., D.M.K.); Business Intelligence and Analytics, Iora Health, Cambridge, MA (W.K.); Health Economics and Reimbursement, Boston Scientific, Marlborough, MA (M.C.); and Center for Clinical Evidence Synthesis, ICRHPS, Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (G.R.).
authors.forename: Whitney
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Kramer
authors.affiliation: From the Division of Cardiology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (B.S.W.); Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (B.S.W., L.L.Y., J.S.L., D.M.K.); Business Intelligence and Analytics, Iora Health, Cambridge, MA (W.K.); Health Economics and Reimbursement, Boston Scientific, Marlborough, MA (M.C.); and Center for Clinical Evidence Synthesis, ICRHPS, Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (G.R.).
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cangelosi
authors.affiliation: From the Division of Cardiology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (B.S.W.); Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (B.S.W., L.L.Y., J.S.L., D.M.K.); Business Intelligence and Analytics, Iora Health, Cambridge, MA (W.K.); Health Economics and Reimbursement, Boston Scientific, Marlborough, MA (M.C.); and Center for Clinical Evidence Synthesis, ICRHPS, Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (G.R.).
authors.forename: Gowri
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Raman
authors.affiliation: From the Division of Cardiology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (B.S.W.); Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (B.S.W., L.L.Y., J.S.L., D.M.K.); Business Intelligence and Analytics, Iora Health, Cambridge, MA (W.K.); Health Economics and Reimbursement, Boston Scientific, Marlborough, MA (M.C.); and Center for Clinical Evidence Synthesis, ICRHPS, Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (G.R.).
authors.forename: Jennifer S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Lutz
authors.affiliation: From the Division of Cardiology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA (B.S.W.); Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness (PACE) Center, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies (ICRHPS), Tufts Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (B.S.W., L.L.Y., J.S.L., D.M.K.); Business Intelligence and Analytics, Iora Health, Cambridge, MA (W.K.); Health Economics and Reimbursement, Boston Scientific, Marlborough, MA (M.C.); and Center for Clinical Evidence Synthesis, ICRHPS, Medical Center/Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA (G.R.). dkent1@tuftsmedicalcenter.org.
authors.forename: David M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Kent
mesh_terms: D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: cardiovascular diseases; cerebrovascular disorders; individualized medicine; logistic models; prognosis