title: An Examination of the Demographic and Environmental Variables Correlated with Lyme Disease Emergence in Virginia.
abstract: Lyme disease is the United States' most significant vector-borne illness. Virginia, on the southern edge of the disease's currently expanding range, has experienced an increase in Lyme disease both spatially and temporally, with steadily increasing rates over the past decade and disease spread from the northern to the southwestern part of the state. This study used a Geographic Information System and a spatial Poisson regression model to examine correlations between demographic and land cover variables, and human Lyme disease from 2006 to 2010 in Virginia. Analysis indicated that herbaceous land cover is positively correlated with Lyme disease incidence rates. Areas with greater interspersion between herbaceous and forested land were also positively correlated with incidence rates. In addition, income and age were positively correlated with incidence rates. Levels of development, interspersion of herbaceous and developed land, and population density were negatively correlated with incidence rates. Abundance of forest fragments less than 2 hectares in area was not significantly correlated. Our results support some findings of previous studies on ecological variables and Lyme disease in endemic areas, but other results have not been found in previous studies, highlighting the potential contribution of new variables as Lyme disease continues to emerge southward.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, 115 Major Williams Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA. sdymond@vt.edu.
authors.forename: Sara E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Seukep
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, 115 Major Williams Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA. korine@vt.edu.
authors.forename: Korine N
authors.initials: KN
authors.lastname: Kolivras
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Hutcheson Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA. yilihong@vt.edu.
authors.forename: Yili
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hong
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Hutcheson Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA. jieli@vt.edu.
authors.forename: Jie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, 313 Cheatham Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA. prisley@vt.edu.
authors.forename: Stephen P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Prisley
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, 115 Major Williams Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA. jayhawk@vt.edu.
authors.forename: James B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Campbell
authors.affiliation: Division of Environmental Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, 109 Governor St., Richmond, VA, 23219, USA. david.gaines@vdh.virginia.gov.
authors.forename: David N
authors.initials: DN
authors.lastname: Gaines
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, 200 Patton Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA. dymond@vt.edu.
authors.forename: Randel L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Dymond
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D017753:Ecosystem; D016021:Epidemiologic Studies; D062306:Geography, Medical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008193:Lyme Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014768:Virginia / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: GIS; Lyme disease; Virginia; medical geography; spatial poisson regression