title: Predicting risk of the fall among aged adult residents of a nursing home.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Fall is one of the most important outcomes of geriatric medicine. The European Assessment System (EASY) Care Standard provides a tool for assessing the risk of the falls. We aimed to evaluate the validity of the Easy-Care risk of the falls (ECRF) sub-score among the residents of a large nursing home.
  
  
  METHODS
  A longitudinal study was conducted within a maximum of 34 months following up for falling in Kahrizak Charity Foundation. At the baseline the demographic, mental status and the depression data of 194 subjects aged ≥60 was collected. The Easy-Care standard tools and Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) were also used for data collecting. The time, location, and cause of the falls were recorded immediately after each fall incident. The Correlation between POMA and ECRF scores and the factor analysis of ECRF were considered as the concurrent and construct validity respectively. The Factor affecting the fall occurrence was assessed using the Cox-regression model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean age of the participants was 76.02 (SD 8.82). Fifty two individuals (27.3%) fell at least once during the mean 756 (SD 187)-day follow up. The Spearman correlation coefficient between ECRF and POMA scores was -0.458 (P<0.01). Three components were detected in the factor analysis of the ECRF. In the univariate Cox-regression model, the hazard ratio was 1.04 (CI: 1.00-1.07) for each score increase of the ECRF. For the six-month follow-up, at the ECRF cut-off point two of eight, the sensitivity and specificity were calculated as 85.7% and 64.5% respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  It seems that the ECRF is a valid tool for predicting the next 6 months' fall incidents in older adults.
authors.affiliation: Elderly Health Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Farshad
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Sharifi
authors.affiliation: Elderly Health Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Hossein
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Fakhrzadeh
authors.affiliation: Kahrizak Charity Foundation, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Alireza
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Memari
authors.affiliation: Elderly Health Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. Electronic address: najafi_bahar@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Baharak
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Najafi
authors.affiliation: Elderly Health Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Kahrizak Charity Foundation, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Neda
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Nazari
authors.affiliation: Elderly Health Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Mahtab Alizadeh
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Khoee
authors.affiliation: Elderly Health Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Seyed Masoud
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Arzaghi
authors.affiliation: Kahrizak Charity Foundation, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Fariborz
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Bakhtiari
authors.affiliation: Elderly Health Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Siamak
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ghasemi
authors.affiliation: Elderly Health Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Seyedeh Nahaleh
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Salavatian
authors.affiliation: Elderly Health Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Neda
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Mehrdad
authors.affiliation: Iranian Research Center on Aging, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Reza
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Fadaayevatan
authors.affiliation: Iranian Research Center on Aging, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Vida
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Alizad
authors.affiliation: Hull and East Yorkshire NHS Hospitals Trust, East Riding of Yorkshire, UK.
authors.forename: Ian
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Philp
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls / Q000517:prevention & control*; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005684:Gait / Q000502:physiology; D015577:Geriatric Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D006707:Homes for the Aged; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009735:Nursing Homes; D004856:Postural Balance / Q000502:physiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
keywords: Aged; Easy-Care; Fall; Nursing home; Validation