title: A novel method to predict the proportional risk of sudden cardiac death in heart failure: Derivation of the Seattle Proportional Risk Model.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Patients with heart failure are at increased risk of both sudden death and pump failure death. Strategies to better identify those who have greatest net benefit from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) implantation could reduce morbidity and maximize cost-effectiveness of ICDs.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  We aimed to identify baseline variables in patients with cardiomyopathy that are independently associated with a disproportionate fraction of mortality risk attributable to sudden death vs nonsudden death.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used data from 9885 patients with heart failure without ICDs, of whom 2552 died during an average follow-up of 2.3 years. Using commonly available baseline clinical and demographic variables, we developed a multivariate regression model to identify variables associated with a disproportionate risk of sudden death.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We confirmed that lower ejection fraction and better functional class were associated with a greater proportion of mortality due to sudden death. Younger age, male sex, and higher body mass index were independently associated with a greater proportional risk of sudden death, while diabetes mellitus, hyper/hypotension, higher creatinine level, and hyponatremia were associated with a disproportionately lower risk of sudden death. The use of several heart failure medications, left ventricular end-diastolic dimension, or NT-pro brain natriuretic peptide concentrations were not associated with a disproportionate risk of sudden death.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Several easily obtained baseline demographic and clinical variables, beyond ejection fraction and New York Heart Association functional class, are independently associated with a disproportionately increased risk of sudden death. Further investigation is needed to assess whether this novel predictive method can be used to target the use of lifesaving therapies to populations who will derive greatest mortality benefit .
authors.affiliation: Southern California Permanente Medical Group, Los Angeles, California. Electronic address: ramin.x.shadman@kp.org.
authors.forename: Ramin
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Shadman
authors.affiliation: University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.
authors.forename: Jeanne E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Poole
authors.affiliation: University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.
authors.forename: Todd F
authors.initials: TF
authors.lastname: Dardas
authors.affiliation: Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts; Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston Massachusetts.
authors.forename: Dariush
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Mozaffarian
authors.affiliation: Hull York Medical School, University of Hull, Kingston-upon-Hull, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: John G F
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Cleland
authors.affiliation: University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Imperial College, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Karl
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Swedberg
authors.affiliation: Italian Association of Hospital Cardiologists, Florence, Italy.
authors.forename: Aldo P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Maggioni
authors.affiliation: Veterans Affairs Health Care System and University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
authors.forename: Inder S
authors.initials: IS
authors.lastname: Anand
authors.affiliation: Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Washington, DC.
authors.forename: Peter E
authors.initials: PE
authors.lastname: Carson
authors.affiliation: University of Florida, Jacksonville(,) Florida.
authors.forename: Alan B
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Miller
authors.affiliation: University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.
authors.forename: Wayne C
authors.initials: WC
authors.lastname: Levy
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D016757:Death, Sudden, Cardiac / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D017147:Defibrillators, Implantable; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000150:complications* / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000628:therapy; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D013997:Time Factors; D014861:Washington / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Heart failure; ICD; ICD benefit; Nonsudden death; Proportional risk; Regression analysis; Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM); Sudden death