title: Updated estimate of the duration of the meningo-encephalitic stage in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The duration of the stages of HAT is an important factor in epidemiological studies and intervention planning. Previously, we published estimates of the duration of the haemo-lymphatic stage 1 and meningo-encephalitic stage 2 of the gambiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), in the absence of treatment. Here we revise the estimate of stage 2 duration, computed based on data from Uganda and South Sudan, by adjusting observed infection prevalence for incomplete case detection coverage and diagnostic inaccuracy.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The revised best estimate for the mean duration of stage 2 is 252 days (95% CI 171-399), about half of our initial best estimate, giving a total mean duration of untreated gambiense HAT infection of approximately 2 years and 2 months.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our new estimate provides improved information on the transmission dynamics of this neglected tropical disease in Uganda and South Sudan. We stress that there remains considerable variability around the estimated mean values, and that one must be cautious in applying these results to other foci.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. francesco.checchi@lshtm.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Checchi
authors.affiliation: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. sebastian.funk@lshtm.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Sebastian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Funk
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. Daniel.Chandramohan@lshtm.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Chandramohan
authors.affiliation: College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK. Daniel.Haydon@glasgow.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Daniel T
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Haydon
authors.affiliation: Operational Centre Geneva, Médecins Sans Frontières, 78 Rue de Lausanne, 1202, Geneva, Switzerland. Francois.Chappuis@hcuge.ch.|Division of International and Humanitarian Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals and University of Geneva, rue Gabrielle-Perret-Gentil 4, 1211, Geneva, Switzerland. Francois.Chappuis@hcuge.ch.
authors.forename: François
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Chappuis
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D058069:Neglected Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology; D013397:Sudan / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors; D014347:Trypanosoma brucei gambiense / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D014353:Trypanosomiasis, African / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D014454:Uganda / Q000453:epidemiology