title: Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.
abstract: Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability.
authors.affiliation: Criminological Research Institute of Lower Saxony.
authors.forename: Sören
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kliem
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, Technical University of Braunschweig.
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Weusthoff
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, Technical University of Braunschweig.
authors.forename: Kurt
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hahlweg
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Utah.
authors.forename: Katherine J W
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Baucom
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Utah.
authors.forename: Brian R
authors.initials: BR
authors.lastname: Baucom
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D003142:Communication; D004243:Divorce / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004644:Emotions; D054541:Family Conflict / Q000523:psychology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010549:Personal Satisfaction; D012306:Risk; D018454:Spouses / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D055815:Young Adult