title: Modelling climate change impacts on and adaptation strategies for agriculture in Sardinia and Tunisia using AquaCrop and value-at-risk.
abstract: In Europe, there is concern that climate change will cause significant impacts around the Mediterranean. The goals of this study are to quantify the economic risk to crop production, to demonstrate the variability of yield by soil texture and climate model and to investigate possible adaptation strategies. In the Rio Mannu di San Sperate watershed, located in Sardinia (Italy) we investigate production of wheat, a rainfed crop. In the Chiba watershed located in Cap Bon (Tunisia), we analyze irrigated tomato production. We find, using the FAO model AquaCrop that crop production will decrease significantly in a future climate (2040-2070) as compared to the present without adaptation measures. Using "value-at-risk", we show that production should be viewed in a statistical manner. Wheat yields in Sardinia are modelled to decrease by 64% on clay loams, and to increase by 8% and 26% respectively on sandy loams and sandy clay loams. Assuming constant irrigation, tomatoes sown in August in Cap Bon are modelled to have a 45% chance of crop failure on loamy sands; a 39% decrease in yields on sandy clay loams; and a 12% increase in yields on sandy loams. For tomatoes sown in March; sandy clay loams will fail 81% of the time; on loamy sands the crop yields will be 63% less while on sandy loams, the yield will increase by 12%. However, if one assume 10% less water available for irrigation then tomatoes sown in March are not viable. Some adaptation strategies will be able to counteract the modelled crop losses. Increasing the amount of irrigation one strategy however this may not be sustainable. Changes in agricultural management such as changing the planting date of wheat to coincide with changing rainfall patterns in Sardinia or mulching of tomatoes in Tunisia can be effective at reducing crop losses.
authors.affiliation: Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, Leonhardstraße 59, A-8010 Graz, Austria. Electronic address: neil.bird@joanneum.at.
authors.forename: David Neil
authors.initials: DN
authors.lastname: Bird
authors.affiliation: Centre de Recherche et des Technologies des Eaux (CERTE), BP 273, 8020 Soliman, Tunisia. Electronic address: sihem.benabdallah@certe.rnrt.tn.
authors.forename: Sihem
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Benabdallah
authors.affiliation: Thalkirchnerstraße 22, 80337 Munich, Germany. Electronic address: nadine_gouda@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Nadine
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Gouda
authors.affiliation: Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR) Muenchener Str 20, 82234 Wessling, Germany. Electronic address: Franz.Hummel@dlr.de.
authors.forename: Franz
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Hummel
authors.affiliation: Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, Leonhardstraße 59, A-8010 Graz, Austria. Electronic address: judith.koeberl@joanneum.at.
authors.forename: Judith
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Koeberl
authors.affiliation: Université François-Rabelais de Tours, UMR CNRS Citeres, 33, allée Ferdinand de Lesseps, 37045 Tours Cedex 1, France. Electronic address: isabelle.lajeunesse@univ-tours.fr.
authors.forename: Isabelle
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: La Jeunesse
authors.affiliation: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet Muenchen, Department of Geography, Luisenstraße 37, 80333 München, Germany. Electronic address: s.meyer@iggf.geo.uni-muenchen.de.
authors.forename: Swen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Meyer
authors.affiliation: Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, Leonhardstraße 59, A-8010 Graz, Austria. Electronic address: franz.prettenthaler@joanneum.at.
authors.forename: Franz
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Prettenthaler
authors.affiliation: AGRIS SARDEGNA - Agenzia per la Ricerca in Agricoltura, Dipartimento per le Produzioni Vegetali, Viale Trieste 111, Cagliari, Italy. Electronic address: asoddu@agrisricerca.it.
authors.forename: Antonino
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Soddu
authors.affiliation: Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, Leonhardstraße 59, A-8010 Graz, Austria. Electronic address: Susanne.woess@joanneum.at.
authors.forename: Susanne
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Woess-Gallasch
keywords: Adaptation strategies; Crop yield modelling; Irrigation; Mulching; Tomato; Wheat