title: Prediction of short term re-exacerbation in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The objective of the study is to develop a scoring system for predicting a 90-day re-exacerbation in hospitalized patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 176 consecutive hospitalized patients with AECOPD were included. The sociodemographic characteristics, status before acute exacerbation (AE), presentations of and treatment for the current AE, and the re-exacerbation in 90 days after discharge from hospital were collected.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The re-exacerbation rate in 90 days was 48.9% (86 out of 176). It was associated with the degree of lung function impairment (Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] grades), frequency of AE in the previous year, and parameters of the current AE, including pleural effusion, use of accessory respiratory muscles, inhaled long-acting β-2-agonists, inhaled corticosteroids, controlled oxygen therapy, noninvasive mechanical ventilation, and length of hospital stay, but was not associated with body mass index, modified Medical Research Council scale, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test. A subgroup of ten variables was selected and developed into the re-exacerbation index scoring system (age grades, GOLD grades, AE times in the previous year, pleural effusion, use of accessory respiratory muscles, noninvasive mechanical ventilation, controlled oxygen therapy, inhaled long-acting β-2-agonists and inhaled corticosteroids, and length of hospital stay). The re-exacerbation index showed good discrimination for re-exacerbation, with a C-statistic of 0.750 (P<0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A comprehensive assessment integrating parameters of stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, clinical presentations at exacerbation, and treatment showed a strong predictive capacity for short-term outcome in patients with AECOPD. Further studies are required to verify these findings.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Huadong Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Dong
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China ; Shaowu Municipal Hospital, Fujian, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Shao-Hua
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Peng
authors.affiliation: Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China ; The People's Hospital of Song County, Henan Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Si-Hong
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Bai
authors.affiliation: Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Huadong Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Hai-Xia
authors.initials: HX
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Huadong Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China ; Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University, School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Jie-Ming
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Qu
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D019540:Area Under Curve; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006304:Health Status; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000628:therapy; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: acute exacerbation; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; re-exacerbation; treatment