title: Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean-warming hotspot.
abstract: Species' ranges are shifting globally in response to climate warming, with substantial variability among taxa, even within regions. Relationships between range dynamics and intrinsic species traits may be particularly apparent in the ocean, where temperature more directly shapes species' distributions. Here, we test for a role of species traits and climate velocity in driving range extensions in the ocean-warming hotspot of southeast Australia. Climate velocity explained some variation in range shifts, however, including species traits more than doubled the variation explained. Swimming ability, omnivory and latitudinal range size all had positive relationships with range extension rate, supporting hypotheses that increased dispersal capacity and ecological generalism promote extensions. We find independent support for the hypothesis that species with narrow latitudinal ranges are limited by factors other than climate. Our findings suggest that small-ranging species are in double jeopardy, with limited ability to escape warming and greater intrinsic vulnerability to stochastic disturbances.
authors.affiliation: Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, 2212 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada.|Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, V5A 1S6, Canada.
authors.forename: Jennifer M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Sunday
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Gretta T
authors.initials: GT
authors.lastname: Pecl
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Stewart
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Frusher
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Hobart, 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Alistair J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Hobday
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Nicole
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Hill
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Neil J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Holbrook
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Graham J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Edgar
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Rick
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Stuart-Smith
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Neville
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Barrett
authors.affiliation: School of Plant Biology & UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, 6009, Australia.|Australian Institute of Marine Science, 39 Fairway, Crawley, 6009, Australia.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Wernberg
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Reg A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Watson
authors.affiliation: The Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, The Laboratory, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UK.
authors.forename: Dan A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Smale
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Hobart, 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Elizabeth A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Fulton
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Floreat, 6014, WA, Australia.
authors.forename: Dirk
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Slawinski
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Floreat, 6014, WA, Australia.
authors.forename: Ming
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.affiliation: School of Plant Biology & UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, 6009, Australia.|Australian Institute of Marine Science, 39 Fairway, Crawley, 6009, Australia.|School of Earth and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, 6009, Australia.
authors.forename: Ben T
authors.initials: BT
authors.lastname: Radford
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Hobart, 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Peter A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Thompson
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7001, Australia.|Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors.forename: Amanda E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Bates
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia; D049628:Body Size; D057231:Climate Change; D004032:Diet / Q000662:veterinary; D017753:Ecosystem; D005399:Fishes / Q000502:physiology*; D020387:Food Chain; D006702:Homing Behavior; D007448:Invertebrates / Q000502:physiology*; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D016014:Linear Models; D008386:Marine Biology; D009043:Motor Activity; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D011156:Population Density; D012098:Reproduction; D013696:Temperature
keywords: Benthic invertebrates; climate change; climate response; fishes; functional traits; invasion; range expansion; range shifts; range size