title: Estimates of Outbreak Risk from New Introductions of Ebola with Immediate and Delayed Transmission Control.
abstract: While the ongoing Ebola outbreak continues in the West Africa countries of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, health officials elsewhere prepare for new introductions of Ebola from infected evacuees or travelers. We analyzed transmission data from patients (i.e., evacuees, international travelers, and those with locally acquired illness) in countries other than the 3 with continuing Ebola epidemics and quantitatively assessed the outbreak risk from new introductions by using different assumptions for transmission control (i.e., immediate and delayed). Results showed that, even in countries that can quickly limit expected number of transmissions per case to <1, the probability that a single introduction will lead to a substantial number of transmissions is not negligible, particularly if transmission variability is high. Identifying incoming infected travelers before symptom onset can decrease worst-case outbreak sizes more than reducing transmissions from patients with locally acquired cases, but performing both actions can have a synergistic effect.
authors.forename: Damon J A
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Toth
authors.forename: Adi V
authors.initials: AV
authors.lastname: Gundlapalli
authors.forename: Karim
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Khader
authors.forename: Warren B P
authors.initials: WB
authors.lastname: Pettey
authors.forename: Michael A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Rubin
authors.forename: Frederick R
authors.initials: FR
authors.lastname: Adler
authors.forename: Matthew H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Samore
mesh_terms: D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D061665:Time-to-Treatment / Q000592:standards* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
keywords: Africa; Ebola; Ebola virus; Guinea; Liberia; Sierra Leone; mathematical model; outbreaks; public health; risk assessment; surveillance; transmission; viruses