title: Environmental conditions in favour of a hantavirus outbreak in 2015 in Germany?
abstract: Bank voles can harbour Puumala virus (PUUV) and vole populations usually peak in years after beech mast. A beech mast occurred in 2014 and a predictive model indicates high vole abundance in 2015. This pattern is similar to the years 2009/2011 when beech mast occurred, bank voles multiplied and human PUUV infections increased a year later. Given similar environmental conditions in 2014/2015, increased risk of human PUUV infections in 2015 is likely. Risk management measures are recommended.
authors.affiliation: Julius Kühn-Institute, Institute for Plant Protection in Horticulture and Forests, Münster, Germany.|University of Potsdam, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Reil
authors.affiliation: Julius Kühn-Institute, Institute for Plant Protection in Horticulture and Forests, Münster, Germany.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Imholt
authors.affiliation: Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute for Novel and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Greifswald - Insel Riems, Germany.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Drewes
authors.affiliation: Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute for Novel and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Greifswald - Insel Riems, Germany.
authors.forename: R G
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Ulrich
authors.affiliation: University of Potsdam, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Eccard
authors.affiliation: Julius Kühn-Institute, Institute for Plant Protection in Horticulture and Forests, Münster, Germany.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Jacob
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003411:Arvicolinae / Q000821:virology*; D003710:Demography; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D017753:Ecosystem; D029964:Fagus; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006476:Orthohantavirus; D018778:Hantavirus Infections; D006480:Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D029262:Puumala virus / Q000302:isolation & purification; D012307:Risk Factors; D014887:Weather
keywords: Beech fructification; Germany; Puumala virus; bank vole; nephropathia epidemica; outbreak