title: Cross-Validation of Aerobic Capacity Prediction Models in Adolescents.
abstract: Cardiorespiratory endurance is a component of health-related fitness. FITNESSGRAM recommends the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) or One mile Run/Walk (1MRW) to assess cardiorespiratory endurance by estimating VO2 Peak. No research has cross-validated prediction models from both PACER and 1MRW, including the New PACER Model and PACER-Mile Equivalent (PACER-MEQ) using current standards. The purpose of this study was to cross-validate prediction models from PACER and 1MRW against measured VO2 Peak in adolescents. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years (Mean = 14.7 ± 1.3 years; 32 girls, 52 boys) who completed the PACER and 1MRW in addition to a laboratory maximal treadmill test to measure VO2 Peak. Multiple correlations among various models with measured VO2 Peak were considered moderately strong (R = .74-0.78), and prediction error (RMSE) ranged from 5.95 ml·kg⁻¹,min⁻¹ to 8.27 ml·kg⁻¹.min⁻¹. Criterion-referenced agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones was considered fair-to-good among models (Kappa = 0.31-0.62; Agreement = 75.5-89.9%; F = 0.08-0.65). In conclusion, prediction models demonstrated moderately strong linear relationships with measured VO2 Peak, fair prediction error, and fair-to-good criterion referenced agreement with measured VO2 Peak into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones.
authors.affiliation: Dept. of Exercise and Sport Science, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT.
authors.forename: Ryan Donald
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Burns
authors.forename: James C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Hannon
authors.forename: Timothy A
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Brusseau
authors.forename: Patricia A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Eisenman
authors.forename: Pedro F
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Saint-Maurice
authors.forename: Greg J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Welk
authors.forename: Matthew T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Mahar
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D015308:Anaerobic Threshold; D005080:Exercise Test; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008955:Models, Cardiovascular; D010101:Oxygen Consumption; D010809:Physical Fitness / Q000502:physiology*; D012420:Running / Q000502:physiology; D016138:Walking / Q000502:physiology