title: Gang membership and substance use: guilt as a gendered causal pathway.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We examine whether anticipated guilt for substance use is a gendered mechanism underlying the noted enhancement effect of gang membership on illegal drug use. We also demonstrate a method for making stronger causal inferences when assessing mediation in the presence of moderation and time-varying confounding.
  
  
  METHODS
  We estimate a series of inverse propensity weighted models to obtain unbiased estimates of mediation in the presence of confounding of the exposure (i.e., gang membership) and mediator (i.e., anticipated guilt) using three waves of data from a multi-site panel study of a law-related education program for youth (N=1,113).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The onset of gang membership significantly decreased anticipated substance use guilt among both male and female respondents. This reduction was significantly associated with increased frequency of substance use only for female respondents, however, suggesting that gender moderates the mechanism through which gang membership influences substance use.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Criminologists are often concerned with identifying causal pathways for antisocial and/or delinquent behavior, but confounders of the exposure, mediator, and outcome often interfere with efforts to assess mediation. Many new approaches have been proposed for strengthening causal inference for mediation effects. After controlling for confounding using inverse propensity weighting, our results suggest that interventions aimed at reducing substance use by current and former female gang members should focus on the normative aspects of these behaviors.
authors.affiliation: The Pennsylvania State University.
authors.forename: Donna L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Coffman
authors.affiliation: Michigan State University.
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Melde
authors.affiliation: University of Missouri-St. Louis.
authors.forename: Finn-Aage
authors.initials: FA
authors.lastname: Esbensen
keywords: Gangs; causal mediation; gender moderation; guilt; inverse propensity weighting; substance use