title: Food-web stability signals critical transitions in temperate shallow lakes.
abstract: A principal aim of ecologists is to identify critical levels of environmental change beyond which ecosystems undergo radical shifts in their functioning. Both food-web theory and alternative stable states theory provide fundamental clues to mechanisms conferring stability to natural systems. Yet, it is unclear how the concept of food-web stability is associated with the resilience of ecosystems susceptible to regime change. Here, we use a combination of food web and ecosystem modelling to show that impending catastrophic shifts in shallow lakes are preceded by a destabilizing reorganization of interaction strengths in the aquatic food web. Analysis of the intricate web of trophic interactions reveals that only few key interactions, involving zooplankton, diatoms and detritus, dictate the deterioration of food-web stability. Our study exposes a tight link between food-web dynamics and the dynamics of the whole ecosystem, implying that trophic organization may serve as an empirical indicator of ecosystem resilience.
authors.affiliation: Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, P.O. Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands.|Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jan J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Kuiper
authors.affiliation: Biometris, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 16, 6700 AC Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Cassandra
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: van Altena
authors.affiliation: Biometris, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 16, 6700 AC Wageningen, The Netherlands.|Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, P.O. Box 94248, 1090 GE Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Peter C
authors.initials: PC
authors.lastname: de Ruiter
authors.affiliation: Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, P.O. Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands.|Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Luuk P A
authors.initials: LPA
authors.lastname: van Gerven
authors.affiliation: Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, P.O. Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands.|PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jan H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Janse
authors.affiliation: Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, P.O. Box 50, 6700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands.|Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Wolf M
authors.initials: WM
authors.lastname: Mooij
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D017377:Diatoms; D017753:Ecosystem; D020387:Food Chain; D056127:Hydrobiology; D060106:Lakes; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D015048:Zooplankton