title: Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.
  
  
  METHODS
  Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4%) and 5,579 (0.7%) newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.
authors.affiliation: Gastric Cancer Branch, Research Institute & Hospital, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Bang Wool
authors.initials: BW
authors.lastname: Eom
authors.affiliation: Biometric Research Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, Research Institute & Hospital, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Jungnam
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Joo
authors.affiliation: Biometric Research Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, Research Institute & Hospital, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Sohee
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Molecular Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, Research Institute & Hospital, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Aesun
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Shin
authors.affiliation: Biometric Research Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, Research Institute & Hospital, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Hye-Ryung
authors.initials: HR
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Biometric Research Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, Research Institute & Hospital, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Junghyun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Park
authors.affiliation: Gastric Cancer Branch, Research Institute & Hospital, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Il Ju
authors.initials: IJ
authors.lastname: Choi
authors.affiliation: Gastric Cancer Branch, Research Institute & Hospital, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Young-Woo
authors.initials: YW
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Molecular Epidemiology Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, Research Institute & Hospital, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Jeongseon
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Biometric Research Branch, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention, Research Institute & Hospital, National Cancer Center, Goyang-si, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Byung-Ho
authors.initials: BH
authors.lastname: Nam
mesh_terms: D002138:Calibration; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011336:Probability; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D056910:Republic of Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*