title: Real-time reliability evaluation methodology based on dynamic Bayesian networks: A case study of a subsea pipe ram BOP system.
abstract: A novel real-time reliability evaluation methodology is proposed by combining root cause diagnosis phase based on Bayesian networks (BNs) and reliability evaluation phase based on dynamic BNs (DBNs). The root cause diagnosis phase exactly locates the root cause of a complex mechatronic system failure in real time to increase diagnostic coverage and is performed through backward analysis of BNs. The reliability evaluation phase calculates the real-time reliability of the entire system by forward inference of DBNs. The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using a case of a subsea pipe ram blowout preventer system. The value and the variation trend of real-time system reliability when the faults of components occur are studied; the importance degree sequence of components at different times is also determined using mutual information and belief variance.
authors.affiliation: College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China. Electronic address: caibaoping@upc.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Baoping
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cai
authors.affiliation: College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China.
authors.forename: Yonghong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China.
authors.forename: Yunpeng
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.affiliation: College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China.
authors.forename: Zengkai
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Bureau of Geophysical Prospecting INC., China National Petroleum Corporation, Zhuozhou, Hebei 072750, China.
authors.forename: Yuming
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: Bureau of Geophysical Prospecting INC., China National Petroleum Corporation, Zhuozhou, Hebei 072750, China.
authors.forename: Junhe
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Sun
keywords: Dynamic Bayesian networks; Real-time; Reliability evaluation; Root cause diagnosis; Subsea blowout preventer