title: Bayesian Melding Approach to Estimate the Reproduction Number for Tuberculosis Transmission in Indian States and Union Territories.
abstract: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most common infectious diseases and a leading cause of death in the world. Despite the full implementation of Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme, the disease continues to be a leading cause of morality and economic burden in India. The basic reproduction is a fundamental key parameter that quantifies the spread of a disease. In this article, we present a Bayesian melding approach to estimate the basic reproduction number using a deterministic model of TB. We present a point estimate of the basic reproduction number of 35 states and union territories of India during 2006 to 2011. The basic reproduction number of TB for India is computed to be 0.92, which indicates the slow elimination of TB in India during 2006 to 2011.
authors.affiliation: Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi, India.
authors.forename: Pankaj
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Narula
authors.affiliation: Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi, India sarita@iitmandi.ac.in.
authors.forename: Sarita
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Azad
authors.affiliation: University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
authors.forename: Pietro
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Lio
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D006801:Humans; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*
keywords: Indian states; Tuberculosis; basic reproduction number; bayesian melding