title: Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate cancer risk at a genome-wide significant level will improve disease prediction.
  
  
  METHODS
  We built polygenic risk scores in a large training set comprising over 25,000 individuals. Initially 65 established prostate cancer susceptibility variants were selected. After LD pruning additional variants were prioritized based on their association with prostate cancer. Six-fold cross validation was performed to assess genetic risk scores and optimize the number of additional variants to be included. The final model was evaluated in an independent study population including 1,370 cases and 1,239 controls.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The polygenic risk score with 65 established susceptibility variants provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adding an additional 68 novel variants significantly increased the AUC to 0.68 (P = 0.0012) and the net reclassification index with 0.21 (P = 8.5E-08). All novel variants were located in genomic regions established as associated with prostate cancer risk.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Inclusion of additional genetic variants from established prostate cancer susceptibility regions improves disease prediction.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
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mesh_terms: D005819:Genetic Markers; D020022:Genetic Predisposition to Disease; D014644:Genetic Variation; D006801:Humans; D015810:Linkage Disequilibrium; D008297:Male; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000235:genetics*; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D005819:Genetic Markers
keywords: polygenic risk score; prostate cancer; risk prediction