title: Marine extinction risk shaped by trait-environment interactions over 500 million years.
abstract: Perhaps the most pressing issue in predicting biotic responses to present and future global change is understanding how environmental factors shape the relationship between ecological traits and extinction risk. The fossil record provides millions of years of insight into how extinction selectivity (i.e., differential extinction risk) is shaped by interactions between ecological traits and environmental conditions. Numerous paleontological studies have examined trait-based extinction selectivity; however, the extent to which these patterns are shaped by environmental conditions is poorly understood due to a lack of quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a meta-analysis of published studies on fossil marine bivalves and gastropods that span 458 million years to uncover how global environmental and geochemical changes covary with trait-based extinction selectivity. We focused on geographic range size and life habit (i.e., infaunal vs. epifaunal), two of the most important and commonly examined predictors of extinction selectivity. We used geochemical proxies related to global climate, as well as indicators of ocean acidification, to infer average global environmental conditions. Life-habit selectivity is weakly dependent on environmental conditions, with infaunal species relatively buffered from extinction during warmer climate states. In contrast, the odds of taxa with broad geographic ranges surviving an extinction (>2500 km for genera, >500 km for species) are on average three times greater than narrow-ranging taxa (estimate of odds ratio: 2.8, 95% confidence interval = 2.3-3.5), regardless of the prevailing global environmental conditions. The environmental independence of geographic range size extinction selectivity emphasizes the critical role of geographic range size in setting conservation priorities.
authors.affiliation: Department of Integrative Biology and Museum of Paleontology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.
authors.forename: Emily A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Orzechowski
authors.affiliation: Department of Geology, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA, 23187, USA.
authors.forename: Rowan
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Lockwood
authors.affiliation: Biology Department, University of Massachusetts Boston, 100 Morrissey Blvd, Boston, MA, 02125, USA.
authors.forename: Jarrett E K
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Byrnes
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada.
authors.forename: Sean C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Anderson
authors.affiliation: Department of Integrative Biology and Museum of Paleontology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.
authors.forename: Seth
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Finnegan
authors.affiliation: Environmental Science Program, Mount Allison University, Sackville, NB, E4L 1A5, Canada.
authors.forename: Zoe V
authors.initials: ZV
authors.lastname: Finkel
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Environment, Franklin and Marshall College, Lancaster, PA, 17604, USA.
authors.forename: Paul G
authors.initials: PG
authors.lastname: Harnik
authors.affiliation: Department of Integrative Biology and Museum of Paleontology, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.
authors.forename: David R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Lindberg
authors.affiliation: Center for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Blindern, N-0316, Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: Lee Hsiang
authors.initials: LH
authors.lastname: Liow
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, P.O. Box 15000, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.
authors.forename: Heike K
authors.initials: HK
authors.lastname: Lotze
authors.affiliation: National Evolutionary Synthesis Center, Durham, NC, 27705, USA.
authors.forename: Craig R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: McClain
authors.affiliation: School of Biology, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, 30332, USA.
authors.forename: Jenny L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: McGuire
authors.affiliation: Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, 0843-03092, Balboa, Republic of Panamá
authors.forename: Aaron
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: O'Dea
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: John M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Pandolfi
authors.affiliation: Department of Paleobiology, Smithsonian Institution, P.O. Box 37012 MRC-121, Washington, DC, 20013-7012, USA.
authors.forename: Carl
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Simpson
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, P.O. Box 15000, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.|United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK.
authors.forename: Derek P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Tittensor
mesh_terms: D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D049872:Bivalvia / Q000502:physiology*; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005580:Fossils; D049851:Gastropoda / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: differential extinction risk; extinction selectivity; geographic range; life habit; mass extinction; mollusk; survivorship