title: Multivariate cumulative probit for age estimation using ordinal categorical data.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Multivariate ordinal categorical data have figured prominently in the age estimation literature. Unfortunately, the osteological and dental age estimation literature is often disconnected from the statistical literature that provides the underpinnings for rationale analyses.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  The aim of the study is to provide an analytical basis for age estimation using multiple ordinal categorical traits.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data on ectocranial suture closure from 1152 individuals are analysed in a multivariate cumulative probit model fit using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Twenty-six parameters in a five variable analysis are estimated, including the 10 unique elements of the five × five correlation matrix. The correlation matrix differs substantially from the identity matrix one would assume under conditional independence among the sutures.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  While the assumption of conditional independence between traits greatly simplifies the use of parametric models in age estimation, this assumption is not a necessary step. Further, in the analysis discussed here there are considerable residual correlations between ectocranial suture closure scores even after 'regressing out' the effect of age.
authors.affiliation: a Department of Anthropology , University of Illinois , Urbana , IL , USA.
authors.forename: Lyle W
authors.initials: LW
authors.lastname: Konigsberg
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000365:Age Determination by Skeleton / Q000379:methods*; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003393:Cranial Sutures / Q000254:growth & development*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008875:Middle Aged; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D014481:United States; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Forensic anthropology; Markov chain Monte Carlo; paleodemography