title: [Logistic regression model of noninvasive prediction for portal hypertensive gastropathy in patients with hepatitis B associated cirrhosis].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To explore the risk factors of portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG) in patients with hepatitis B associated cirrhosis and establish a Logistic regression model of noninvasive prediction.
  
  
  METHODS
  The clinical data of 234 hospitalized patients with hepatitis B associated cirrhosis from March 2012 to March 2014 were analyzed retrospectively. The dependent variable was the occurrence of PHG while the independent variables were screened by binary Logistic analysis. Multivariate Logistic regression was used for further analysis of significant noninvasive independent variables. Logistic regression model was established and odds ratio was calculated for each factor. The accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of model were evaluated by the curve of receiver operating characteristic (ROC).
  
  
  RESULTS
  According to univariate Logistic regression, the risk factors included hepatic dysfunction, albumin (ALB), bilirubin (TB), prothrombin time (PT), platelet (PLT), white blood cell (WBC), portal vein diameter, spleen index, splenic vein diameter, diameter ratio, PLT to spleen volume ratio, esophageal varices (EV) and gastric varices (GV). Multivariate analysis showed that hepatic dysfunction (X1), TB (X2), PLT (X3) and splenic vein diameter (X4) were the major occurring factors for PHG. The established regression model was Logit P=-2.667+2.186X1-2.167X2+0.725X3+0.976X4. The accuracy of model for PHG was 79.1% with a sensitivity of 77.2% and a specificity of 80.8%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Hepatic dysfunction, TB, PLT and splenic vein diameter are risk factors for PHG and the noninvasive predicted Logistic regression model was Logit P=-2.667+2.186X1-2.167X2+0.725X3+0.976X4.
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Lingnan Hospital, Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510530, China.
authors.forename: Qingliang
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Lingnan Hospital, Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510530, China.
authors.forename: Xiaojie
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Lingnan Hospital, Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510530, China.
authors.forename: Kunpeng
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Lingnan Hospital, Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510530, China.
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Lingnan Hospital, Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510530, China.
authors.forename: Peisheng
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Lingnan Hospital, Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510530, China; Email: jakeliubo@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Bo
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D004932:Esophageal and Gastric Varices; D006509:Hepatitis B; D006801:Humans; D006975:Hypertension, Portal; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis; D016015:Logistic Models; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011169:Portal Vein; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D013154:Spleen; D013272:Stomach Diseases