title: A pretreatment nomogram for prediction of biochemical failure after primary cryoablation of the prostate.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To create a predictive nomogram for biochemical failure following primary whole-gland cryoablation of the prostate for localized prostate cancer (LPCa).
  
  
  METHODS
  We retrospectively analyzed 2,242 patients from the Cryo On-Line Database (COLD) who were treatment naive and had undergone primary whole gland cryoablation of the prostate for biopsy-confirmed LPCa. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves estimating 5 year biochemical progression-free survival (bPFS) were generated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis (CoxPH) was performed in order to construct the nomogram. The nomogram was internally validated using the bootstrap technique.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Overall, the KM estimated 5 year bPFS was 72.8%. Stratified by D'Amico risk, The KM estimated 5 year bPFS was 82.6%, 71.1%, and 57.8% for low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. Statistically significant predictors of biochemical outcomes from CoxPH analysis were pre-treatment prostate specific antigen (PTPSA) (P < 0.001), total prostate volume (P = 0.004), clinical stage (P = 0.034), and Gleason score (0.004). A nomogram for predicted 5 year biochemical progression free probability was constructed with a concordance index of 0.652. An online risk calculator was also generated.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  To the best of our knowledge, this is the first predictive nomogram for biochemical outcomes after primary whole gland cryoablation of the prostate using socio-demographic, pretreatment, clinical, and prostate biopsy data. Our nomogram and online risk calculator can guide both patients and urologists for shared decision making regarding definitive treatment options.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Glickman Urological & Kidney Institute, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio.|Urology Department, Al Kasr Al Aini Hospital, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt.
authors.forename: Ahmed
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Elshafei
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Glickman Urological & Kidney Institute, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio.
authors.forename: Evan
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kovac
authors.affiliation: Urology Department, Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan.
authors.forename: Nivedita
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Dhar
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Glickman Urological & Kidney Institute, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Levy
authors.affiliation: Urology Department, School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Polascik
authors.affiliation: Global Robotics Institute at Celebration Health, Celebration, Florida.
authors.forename: Vladimir
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Mouraviev
authors.affiliation: Quantitative Health Sciences Department, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio.
authors.forename: Changhong
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Glickman Urological & Kidney Institute, Cleveland Clinic Foundation, Cleveland, Ohio.
authors.forename: J Stephen
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Jones
mesh_terms: D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003452:Cryosurgery; D018450:Disease Progression; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D060787:Neoplasm Grading; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D049451:Nomograms; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011467:Prostate / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment
keywords: biochemical progression free survival; low grade prostate cancer; nomogram