title: Genes Left Behind: Climate Change Threatens Cryptic Genetic Diversity in the Canopy-Forming Seaweed Bifurcaria bifurcata.
abstract: The global redistribution of biodiversity will intensify in the coming decades of climate change, making projections of species range shifts and of associated genetic losses important components of conservation planning. Highly-structured marine species, notably brown seaweeds, often harbor unique genetic variation at warmer low-latitude rear edges and thus are of particular concern. Here, a combination of Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) and molecular data is used to forecast the potential near-future impacts of climate change for a warm-temperate, canopy forming seaweed, Bifurcaria bifurcata. ENMs for B. bifurcata were developed using marine and terrestrial climatic variables, and its range projected for 2040-50 and 2090-2100 under two greenhouse emission scenarios. Geographical patterns of genetic diversity were assessed by screening 18 populations spawning the entire distribution for two organelle genes and 6 microsatellite markers. The southern limit of B. bifurcata was predicted to shift northwards to central Morocco by the mid-century. By 2090-2100, depending on the emission scenario, it could either retreat further north to western Iberia or be relocated back to Western Sahara. At the opposing margin, B. bifurcata was predicted to expand its range to Scotland or even Norway. Microsatellite diversity and endemism were highest in Morocco, where a unique and very restricted lineage was also identified. Our results imply that B. bifurcata will maintain a relatively broad latitudinal distribution. Although its persistence is not threatened, the predicted extirpation of a unique southern lineage or even the entire Moroccan diversity hotspot will erase a rich evolutionary legacy and shrink global diversity to current (low) European levels. NW Africa and similarly understudied southern regions should receive added attention if expected range changes and diversity loss of warm-temperate species is not to occur unnoticed.
authors.affiliation: Centro de Ciências do Mar da Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal.
authors.forename: João
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Neiva
authors.affiliation: Centro de Ciências do Mar da Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal.
authors.forename: Jorge
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Assis
authors.affiliation: Centro de Ciências do Mar da Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal.
authors.forename: Nelson C
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Coelho
authors.affiliation: Centro de Ciências do Mar da Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal.
authors.forename: Francisco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Fernandes
authors.affiliation: Centro de Ciências do Mar da Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal.
authors.forename: Gareth A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Pearson
authors.affiliation: Centro de Ciências do Mar da Universidade do Algarve, Faro, Portugal.
authors.forename: Ester A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Serrão
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D005060:Europe; D019143:Evolution, Molecular; D014644:Genetic Variation; D018895:Microsatellite Repeats; D015388:Organelles / Q000235:genetics; D010802:Phylogeny; D058974:Phylogeography; D012624:Seaweed / Q000235:genetics*