title: Thyroid Dose Estimates for a Cohort of Belarusian Children Exposed to (131)I from the Chernobyl Accident: Assessment of Uncertainties.
abstract: Deterministic thyroid radiation doses due to iodine-131 ((131)I) intake were reconstructed in a previous article for 11,732 participants of the Belarusian-American cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in individuals exposed during childhood or adolescence to fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The current article describes an assessment of uncertainties in reconstructed thyroid doses that accounts for the shared and unshared errors. Using a Monte Carlo simulation procedure, 1,000 sets of cohort thyroid doses due to (131)I intake were calculated. The arithmetic mean of the stochastic thyroid doses for the entire cohort was 0.68 Gy. For two-thirds of the cohort the arithmetic mean of individual stochastic thyroid doses was less than 0.5 Gy. The geometric standard deviation of stochastic doses varied among cohort members from 1.33 to 5.12 with an arithmetic mean of 1.76 and a geometric mean of 1.73. The uncertainties in thyroid dose were driven by the unshared errors associated with the estimates of values of thyroid mass and of the (131)I activity in the thyroid of the subject; the contribution of shared errors to the overall uncertainty was small. These multiple sets of cohort thyroid doses will be used to evaluate the radiation risks of thyroid cancer and noncancer thyroid diseases, taking into account the structure of the errors in the dose estimates.
authors.affiliation: a  Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, Bethesda, Maryland;
authors.forename: Vladimir
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Drozdovitch
authors.affiliation: b  Research Institute for Nuclear Problems, Minsk, Belarus;
authors.forename: Victor
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Minenko
authors.affiliation: c  Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center, Moscow, Russia;
authors.forename: Ivan
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Golovanov
authors.affiliation: b  Research Institute for Nuclear Problems, Minsk, Belarus;
authors.forename: Arkady
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Khrutchinsky
authors.affiliation: d  United Institute of Informatics Problems, Minsk, Belarus; and.
authors.forename: Tatiana
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kukhta
authors.affiliation: b  Research Institute for Nuclear Problems, Minsk, Belarus;
authors.forename: Semion
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kutsen
authors.affiliation: a  Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, Bethesda, Maryland;
authors.forename: Nickolas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Luckyanov
authors.affiliation: a  Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, Bethesda, Maryland;
authors.forename: Evgenia
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Ostroumova
authors.affiliation: b  Research Institute for Nuclear Problems, Minsk, Belarus;
authors.forename: Sergey
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Trofimik
authors.affiliation: e  MJP Risk Assessment, Inc., Denver, Colorado.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Voillequé
authors.affiliation: a  Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, Bethesda, Maryland;
authors.forename: Steven L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Simon
authors.affiliation: a  Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS, Bethesda, Maryland;
authors.forename: André
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bouville
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D047852:Chernobyl Nuclear Accident; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007457:Iodine Radioisotopes; D008297:Male; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D009381:Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced / Q000473:pathology*; D011829:Radiation Dosage; D002094:Republic of Belarus; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013961:Thyroid Gland / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000528:radiation effects*
chemical_list: D007457:Iodine Radioisotopes