title: Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change.
abstract: Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56-81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15-51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051-2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators.
authors.affiliation: 1] RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK [2] Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK.
authors.forename: Matthew J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Carroll
authors.affiliation: Department of Environment, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Heinemeyer
authors.affiliation: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK.
authors.forename: James W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Pearce-Higgins
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Cledwyn Building, Penglais Campus, Ceredigion SY23 3DD, UK.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Dennis
authors.affiliation: Department of Environment, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK.
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: West
authors.affiliation: water@leeds, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
authors.forename: Joseph
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Holden
authors.affiliation: water@leeds, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
authors.forename: Zoe E
authors.initials: ZE
authors.lastname: Wallage
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK.
authors.forename: Chris D
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Thomas
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D057231:Climate Change; D004175:Diptera; D017753:Ecosystem; D020387:Food Chain; D062070:Hydrology; D008954:Models, Biological; D011891:Rain; D013696:Temperature; D006113:United Kingdom; D058438:Water Cycle; D053833:Wetlands