title: Global-change vulnerability of a key plant resource, the African palms.
abstract: Palms are keystone species in tropical ecosystems and provide essential ecosystem services to rural people worldwide. However, many palm species are threatened by habitat loss and over-exploitation. Furthermore, palms are sensitive to climate and thus vulnerable to future climate changes. Here, we provide a first quantitative assessment of the future risks to the African palm flora, finding that African palm species on average may experience a decline in climatic suitability in >70% of their current ranges by 2080. This suitability loss may, however, be almost halved if migration to nearby climatically suitable sites succeeds. Worryingly, 42% of the areas with 80-100% of species losing climate suitability are also characterized by high human population density (HPD). By 2080, >90% of all African palm species' ranges will likely occur at HPDs leading to increased risks of habitat loss and overexploitation. Additionally, up to 87% of all species are predicted to lose climatic suitability within current protected areas (PAs) by 2080. In summary, a major plant component of tropical ecosystems and provider of ecosystem services to rural populations will face strongly increased pressures from climate change and human populations in the near future.
authors.affiliation: Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
authors.forename: Anne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Blach-Overgaard
authors.affiliation: Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
authors.forename: Henrik
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Balslev
authors.affiliation: Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey TW9 3AB, UK.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Dransfield
authors.affiliation: 1] Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark [2] Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Signe
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Normand
authors.affiliation: Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
authors.forename: Jens-Christian
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Svenning
mesh_terms: D000064:Acclimatization / Q000502:physiology; D000349:Africa; D028023:Arecaceae / Q000254:growth & development*; D002980:Climate; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D004777:Environment; D057232:Global Warming / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*