title: Multivariate logistic regression analysis of postoperative complications and risk model establishment of gastrectomy for gastric cancer: A single-center cohort report.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Reporting of surgical complications is common, but few provide information about the severity and estimate risk factors of complications. If have, but lack of specificity.
  
  
  METHODS
  We retrospectively analyzed data on 2795 gastric cancer patients underwent surgical procedure at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between June 2007 and June 2012, established multivariate logistic regression model to predictive risk factors related to the postoperative complications according to the Clavien-Dindo classification system.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Twenty-four out of 86 variables were identified statistically significant in univariate logistic regression analysis, 11 significant variables entered multivariate analysis were employed to produce the risk model. Liver cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus, Child classification, invasion of neighboring organs, combined resection, introperative transfusion, Billroth II anastomosis of reconstruction, malnutrition, surgical volume of surgeons, operating time and age were independent risk factors for postoperative complications after gastrectomy. Based on logistic regression equation, p=Exp∑BiXi / (1+Exp∑BiXi), multivariate logistic regression predictive model that calculated the risk of postoperative morbidity was developed, p = 1/(1 + e((4.810-1.287X1-0.504X2-0.500X3-0.474X4-0.405X5-0.318X6-0.316X7-0.305X8-0.278X9-0.255X10-0.138X11))). The accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the model to predict the postoperative complications were 86.7%, 76.2% and 88.6%, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This risk model based on Clavien-Dindo grading severity of complications system and logistic regression analysis can predict severe morbidity specific to an individual patient's risk factors, estimate patients' risks and benefits of gastric surgery as an accurate decision-making tool and may serve as a template for the development of risk models for other surgical groups.
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Jinzhe
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Yanbing
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Shougen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Cao
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Shikuan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Hao
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Zhaojian
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Niu
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Dong
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Dongsheng
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Liang
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Lv
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Jian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Yu
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Xuelong
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Jiao
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Xiaojie
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Tan
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Jianli
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Haibo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Bingyuan
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Yun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.affiliation: a Department of General Surgery, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University , Shan Dong Province, China.
authors.forename: Zhenqing
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Sun
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002681:China; D005260:Female; D005743:Gastrectomy / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000601:surgery*
keywords: model; multivariate analysis; postoperative complications; risk factors; statistical; stomach neoplasms