title: Clinical trial success rates of anti-obesity agents: the importance of combination therapies.
abstract: The objective of this study was to construct a clinical trial profile assessing the risk of drug failure among anti-obesity agents. Research was conducted by looking at anti-obesity therapies currently on the market or in clinical trials (phases I to III) conducted from 1998 to September 2014, with the exclusion of any drugs whose phase I trial was conducted prior to January 1998. This was completed primarily through a search on http://clinicaltrials.gov where a total of 51 drugs met the search criteria. The transition probabilities were then calculated based on various classifications and compared against industry standards. The transition probability of anti-obesity agents was 8.50% whereas the transition probability of industry standards was 10.40%. Combination therapies had four times the transition probability than monotherapies, 40% and 4.75%, respectively. Therefore, it was determined that 92% of drugs fail during clinical trial testing for this indication and combination therapy appears to improve clinical trial success rates to 10-fold.
authors.affiliation: Biology Department, University of Toronto Mississauga, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada.
authors.forename: H T
authors.initials: HT
authors.lastname: Hussain
authors.affiliation: Biology Department, University of Toronto Mississauga, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada.
authors.forename: J L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Parker
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Division of Endocrinology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Sharma
mesh_terms: D019440:Anti-Obesity Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000494:pharmacology; D017321:Clinical Trials, Phase I as Topic; D017322:Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic; D017326:Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic; D015195:Drug Design; D004359:Drug Therapy, Combination; D006801:Humans; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000517:prevention & control*; D017211:Treatment Failure
chemical_list: D019440:Anti-Obesity Agents
keywords: Anti-obesity agents; clinical trials; combination therapies