title: Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.
abstract: Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.
authors.affiliation: Posgrado en Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510, Mexico, D.F., Mexico. orcacomefoca@ciencias.unam.mx.|Laboratorio de Ecofisiología Tropical, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510, Mexico, D.F., Mexico. orcacomefoca@ciencias.unam.mx.
authors.forename: Manuel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Esperón-Rodríguez
authors.affiliation: Laboratorio de Ecofisiología Tropical, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510, Mexico, D.F., Mexico. martin8722@live.com.
authors.forename: Martín
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bonifacio-Bautista
authors.affiliation: Laboratorio de Ecofisiología Tropical, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510, Mexico, D.F., Mexico. vlbarradas@ecologia.unam.mx.
authors.forename: Víctor L
authors.initials: VL
authors.lastname: Barradas
mesh_terms: D000531:Altitude; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D006801:Humans; D008800:Mexico; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors
keywords: Climate change; Economic vulnerability; Mexico; Region of the Great Mountains; Social vulnerability; Temperature and precipitation trends