title: Premorbid multivariate prediction of adult psychosis-spectrum disorder: A high-risk prospective investigation.
abstract: Premorbid prediction of psychosis-spectrum disorders has implications for both understanding etiology and clinical identification. The current study used a longitudinal high-risk for psychosis design that included children of parents with schizophrenia as well as two groups of controls (children whose parents had no mental illness, and children with at least one parent with a non-psychotic psychiatric diagnosis). Premorbid neurological factors and an indication of social function, as measured when participants were 10-13years of age, were combined to predict psychosis-spectrum disorders in adulthood. Through a combination of childhood predictors, the model correctly classified 82% (27 of 33) of the participants who eventually developed a psychosis-spectrum outcome in adulthood. With replication, multivariate premorbid prediction, including genetic risk, social, and neurological variables, could potentially be a useful complementary approach to identifying individuals at risk for developing psychosis-spectrum disorders.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, United States. Electronic address: schiffma@umbc.edu.
authors.forename: Jason
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Schiffman
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, United States.
authors.forename: Emily
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kline
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, United States.
authors.forename: Nicole D
authors.initials: ND
authors.lastname: Jameson
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, Amager Hospital, Copenhagen University Hospital, Capital Region of Denmark, Denmark; Institute of Public Health, Center for Healthy Aging, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Holger J
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Sorensen
authors.affiliation: University of Hawaii, United States.
authors.forename: Shana
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Dodge
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, United States.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Tsuji
authors.affiliation: Institute of Public Health, Center for Healthy Aging, University of Copenhagen, Denmark; Institute of Preventive Medicine, Copenhagen University Hospital, Denmark.
authors.forename: Erik L
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Mortensen
authors.affiliation: Institute of Preventive Medicine, Copenhagen University Hospital, Denmark; University of Southern California, United States.
authors.forename: Sarnoff A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Mednick
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D009460:Neurologic Examination; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D011618:Psychotic Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000235:genetics / Q000523:psychology*; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012559:Schizophrenia / Q000150:complications* / Q000235:genetics; D012565:Schizophrenic Psychology
keywords: High-risk; Neurological; Prediction; Premorbid; Psychosis; Social