title: National health expenditure projections, 2014-24: spending growth faster than recent trends.
abstract: Health spending growth in the United States is projected to average 5.8 percent for 2014-24, reflecting the Affordable Care Act's coverage expansions, faster economic growth, and population aging. Recent historically low growth rates in the use of medical goods and services, as well as medical prices, are expected to gradually increase. However, in part because of the impact of continued cost-sharing increases that are anticipated among health plans, the acceleration of these growth rates is expected to be modest. The health share of US gross domestic product is projected to rise from 17.4 percent in 2013 to 19.6 percent in 2024.
authors.affiliation: Sean P. Keehan (sean.keehan@cms.hhs.gov) is an economist in the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), in Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Sean P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Keehan
authors.affiliation: Gigi A. Cuckler is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Gigi A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Cuckler
authors.affiliation: Andrea M. Sisko is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Andrea M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Sisko
authors.affiliation: Andrew J. Madison is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Madison
authors.affiliation: Sheila D. Smith is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Sheila D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Devin A. Stone is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Devin A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Stone
authors.affiliation: John A. Poisal is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group, CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: John A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Poisal
authors.affiliation: Christian J. Wolfe is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Christian J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Wolfe
authors.affiliation: Joseph M. Lizonitz is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Joseph M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Lizonitz
mesh_terms: D016527:Drug Costs / Q000639:trends*; D005544:Forecasting; D059066:Gross Domestic Product / Q000639:trends; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000639:trends*; D006761:Hospitals / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D019458:Insurance Coverage / Q000639:trends*; D007348:Insurance, Health / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*; D008484:Medicaid / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D006278:Medicare / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D017059:Models, Econometric; D058991:Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act / Q000639:trends; D010820:Physicians / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D055553:Prescription Drugs / Q000191:economics* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D014481:United States
chemical_list: D055553:Prescription Drugs
keywords: Cost of Health Care; Financing Health Care; Health Economics; Health Spending; Medicare