title: Mycobacterium ulcerans dynamics in aquatic ecosystems are driven by a complex interplay of abiotic and biotic factors.
abstract: Host-parasite interactions are often embedded within complex host communities and can be influenced by a variety of environmental factors, such as seasonal variations in climate or abiotic conditions in water and soil, which confounds our understanding of the main drivers of many multi-host pathogens. Here, we take advantage of a combination of large environmental data sets on Mycobacterium ulcerans (MU), an environmentally persistent microorganism associated to freshwater ecosystems and present in a large variety of aquatic hosts, to characterize abiotic and biotic factors driving the dynamics of this pathogen in two regions of Cameroon. We find that MU dynamics are largely driven by seasonal climatic factors and certain physico-chemical conditions in stagnant and slow-flowing ecosystems, with an important role of pH as limiting factor. Furthermore, water conditions can modify the effect of abundance and diversity of aquatic organisms on MU dynamics, which suggests a different contribution of two MU transmission routes for aquatic hosts (trophic vs environmental transmission) depending on local abiotic factors.
authors.affiliation: Evolution et Contrôle (UMR CNRS/IRD/UM 5290), Montpellier, France.
authors.forename: Andrés
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Garchitorena
authors.affiliation: Evolution et Contrôle (UMR CNRS/IRD/UM 5290), Montpellier, France.
authors.forename: Jean-François
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Guégan
authors.affiliation: Evolution et Contrôle (UMR CNRS/IRD/UM 5290), Montpellier, France.
authors.forename: Lucas
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Léger
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire de Mycobactériologie, Centre Pasteur du Cameroun, Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur, Yaoundé, Cameroon.
authors.forename: Sara
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Eyangoh
authors.affiliation: Université et CHU d'Angers, Angers, France.
authors.forename: Laurent
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Marsollier
authors.affiliation: International Center for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Complex Systems (UMI IRD/UPMC UMMISCO), Bondy Cedex, France.
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Roche
mesh_terms: D002163:Cameroon; D055598:Chemical Phenomena; D002980:Climate; D017753:Ecosystem; D006863:Hydrogen-Ion Concentration; D019911:Mycobacterium ulcerans / Q000187:drug effects / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000302:isolation & purification* / Q000378:metabolism; D012621:Seasons; D014871:Water Microbiology
keywords: Buruli ulcer; disease ecology; ecology; environmental drivers; epidemiology; global health; multi-host pathogens; multi-model inference; neglected tropical diseases