title: Young drivers' night-time mobility preferences and attitude toward alcohol consumption: A Hybrid Choice Model.
abstract: This paper proposes an analysis of mobility preferences of young people at nighttime. In OECD countries in the last decades, data show that road crashes are the single biggest cause of death of 15-24 years-old drivers. On average, over 8500 young drivers were killed each year and it is demonstrated that the accidents tend to occur on weekend nights and when young people drive under the influence of alcohol. Focusing on the demand for mobility, we approach the problem from several points of view, concentrating on the relationship between attitudes towards alcohol and some of the most common countermeasures implemented to address young-driver risk. In particular, we examine the potential demand of young drivers for new modes of public transport, understand their preferences for plans designed to reduce and/or prevent the number of risky situations. Our analysis covers different aspects of private modes of transport, including amounts of fines and police checkpoints. We also investigate the characteristics of existing and available public transport systems (e.g. fares and levels of services). Through a Stated Preferences experiment (SP), we collected young people's preferences about nighttime mobility within our application area (Lugano, Switzerland). Using the Hybrid Choice Models technique, we developed an approach and we estimated a model designed to incorporate simultaneously three dimensions of the problem: attributes of the alternatives, characteristics of young drivers, and alcohol-related psychological variables. Our estimates suggest that, first, there are young drivers who are willing to choose public alternatives; secondly, the countermeasures considered can increase their number; and, thirdly, people with a higher attitude to alcohol are more willing to switch to new public transport alternatives and more sensitive to "Drinking and Driving Do not Mix" policies. Action plans developed on the basis of these findings and on the relevance of the psychological component will have a better chance to succeed.
authors.affiliation: University of Lugano, Institute for Economic Research, Switzerland. Electronic address: stefano.scagnolari@usi.ch.
authors.forename: Stefano
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Scagnolari
authors.affiliation: University of California at Berkeley, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United States.
authors.forename: Joan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Walker
authors.affiliation: University of Lugano, Institute for Economic Research, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Rico
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Maggi
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000517:prevention & control; D000293:Adolescent; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000523:psychology*; D001290:Attitude; D002755:Choice Behavior; D000066448:Driving Under the Influence / Q000523:psychology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D016495:Police; D012306:Risk; D013557:Switzerland; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Alcohol Attitude; Hybrid Choice Models; Night-time Mobility; Young drivers