title: Spatio-Temporal Signatures to Predict Retinal Disease Recurrence.
abstract: We propose a method to predict treatment response patterns based on spatio-temporal disease signatures extracted from longitudinal spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) images. We extract spatio-temporal disease signatures describing the underlying retinal structure and pathology by transforming total retinal thickness maps into a joint reference coordinate system. We formulate the prediction as a multi-variate sparse generalized linear model regression based on the aligned signatures. The algorithm predicts if and when recurrence of the disease will occur in the future. Experiments demonstrate that the model identifies predictive and interpretable features in the spatio-temporal signature. In initial experiments recurrence vs. non-recurrence is predicted with a ROC AuC of 0.99. Based on observed longitudinal morphology changes and a time-to-event based Cox regression model we predict the time to recurrence with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.25 months comparing favorably to elastic net regression (1.34 months), demonstrating the benefit of a spatio-temporal survival model.
authors.forename: Wolf-Dieter
authors.initials: WD
authors.lastname: Vogl
authors.forename: Sebastian M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Waldstein
authors.forename: Bianca S
authors.initials: BS
authors.lastname: Gerendas
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Simader
authors.forename: Ana-Maria
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Glodan
authors.forename: Dominika
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Podkowinski
authors.forename: Ursula
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Schmidt-Erfurth
authors.forename: Georg
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Langs
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D061067:Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D006801:Humans; D007089:Image Enhancement / Q000379:methods; D007090:Image Interpretation, Computer-Assisted / Q000379:methods; D063868:Patient Outcome Assessment; D011379:Prognosis; D000069579:Ranibizumab; D012008:Recurrence; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012170:Retinal Vein Occlusion / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000473:pathology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D013382:Subtraction Technique; D041623:Tomography, Optical Coherence / Q000379:methods*; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D061067:Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized; D000069579:Ranibizumab