title: Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and fruit juice and incidence of type 2 diabetes: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimation of population attributable fraction.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To examine the prospective associations between consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and fruit juice with type 2 diabetes before and after adjustment for adiposity, and to estimate the population attributable fraction for type 2 diabetes from consumption of sugar sweetened beverages in the United States and United Kingdom.
  
  
  METHODS
  Systematic review and meta-analysis.
  
  
  METHODS
  PubMed, Embase, Ovid, and Web of Knowledge for prospective studies of adults without diabetes, published until February 2014. The population attributable fraction was estimated in national surveys in the USA, 2009-10 (n = 4729 representing 189.1 million adults without diabetes) and the UK, 2008-12 (n = 1932 representing 44.7 million).
  
  
  METHODS
  Random effects meta-analysis and survey analysis for population attributable fraction associated with consumption of sugar sweetened beverages.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Prespecified information was extracted from 17 cohorts (38,253 cases/10,126,754 person years). Higher consumption of sugar sweetened beverages was associated with a greater incidence of type 2 diabetes, by 18% per one serving/day (95% confidence interval 9% to 28%, I(2) for heterogeneity = 89%) and 13% (6% to 21%, I(2) = 79%) before and after adjustment for adiposity; for artificially sweetened beverages, 25% (18% to 33%, I(2) = 70%) and 8% (2% to 15%, I(2) = 64%); and for fruit juice, 5% (-1% to 11%, I(2) = 58%) and 7% (1% to 14%, I(2) = 51%). Potential sources of heterogeneity or bias were not evident for sugar sweetened beverages. For artificially sweetened beverages, publication bias and residual confounding were indicated. For fruit juice the finding was non-significant in studies ascertaining type 2 diabetes objectively (P for heterogeneity = 0.008). Under specified assumptions for population attributable fraction, of 20.9 million events of type 2 diabetes predicted to occur over 10 years in the USA (absolute event rate 11.0%), 1.8 million would be attributable to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (population attributable fraction 8.7%, 95% confidence interval 3.9% to 12.9%); and of 2.6 million events in the UK (absolute event rate 5.8%), 79,000 would be attributable to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (population attributable fraction 3.6%, 1.7% to 5.6%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Habitual consumption of sugar sweetened beverages was associated with a greater incidence of type 2 diabetes, independently of adiposity. Although artificially sweetened beverages and fruit juice also showed positive associations with incidence of type 2 diabetes, the findings were likely to involve bias. None the less, both artificially sweetened beverages and fruit juice were unlikely to be healthy alternatives to sugar sweetened beverages for the prevention of type 2 diabetes. Under assumption of causality, consumption of sugar sweetened beverages over years may be related to a substantial number of cases of new onset diabetes.
authors.affiliation: Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK fumiaki.imamura@mrc-epid.cam.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Fumiaki
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Imamura
authors.affiliation: Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK.
authors.forename: Laura
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: O'Connor
authors.affiliation: Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK.
authors.forename: Zheng
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Ye
authors.affiliation: Institute of Public Health and Clinical Nutrition, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland.
authors.forename: Jaakko
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Mursu
authors.affiliation: Department of Endocrinology, Tenri Hospital, Tenri City, Nara, Japan Department of Healthcare Epidemiology, Graduate School of Medicine and Public Health, Kyoto University, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan Department of Endocrinology, Tenri Hospital, Tenri City, Nara, Japan Department of Healthcare Epidemiology, Graduate School of Medicine and Public Health, Kyoto University, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan.
authors.forename: Yasuaki
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hayashino
authors.affiliation: Department of Nutrition, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Shilpa N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Bhupathiraju
authors.affiliation: Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK.
authors.forename: Nita G
authors.initials: NG
authors.lastname: Forouhi
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001628:Beverages / Q000009:adverse effects*; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000209:etiology*; D004032:Diet / Q000009:adverse effects*; D019422:Dietary Sucrose / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005638:Fruit / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012307:Risk Factors; D013549:Sweetening Agents / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006113:United Kingdom; D014481:United States
chemical_list: D019422:Dietary Sucrose; D013549:Sweetening Agents