title: Talent in Female Gymnastics: a Survival Analysis Based upon Performance Characteristics.
abstract: This study investigated the link between the anthropometric, physical and motor characteristics assessed during talent identification and dropout in young female gymnasts. 3 cohorts of female gymnasts (n=243; 6-9 years) completed a test battery for talent identification. Performance-levels were monitored over 5 years of competition. Kaplan-Meier and Cox Proportional Hazards analyses were conducted to determine the survival rate and the characteristics that influence dropout respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that only 18% of the female gymnasts that passed the baseline talent identification test survived at the highest competition level 5 years later. The Cox Proportional Hazards Model indicated that gymnasts with a score in the best quartile for a specific characteristic significantly increased chances of survival by 45-129%. These characteristics being: basic motor skills (129%), shoulder strength (96%), leg strength (53%) and 3 gross motor coordination items (45-73%). These results suggest that tests batteries commonly used for talent identification in young female gymnasts may also provide valuable insights into future dropout. Therefore, multidimensional test batteries deserve a prominent place in the selection process. The individual test results should encourage trainers to invest in an early development of basic physical and motor characteristics to prevent attrition.
authors.affiliation: Ghent University, Movement and Sports Sciences, Ghent, Belgium.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pion
authors.affiliation: Ghent University, Movement and Sports Sciences, Ghent, Belgium.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lenoir
authors.affiliation: Ghent University, Movement and Sports Sciences, Ghent, Belgium.
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Vandorpe
authors.affiliation: Ghent University, Movement and Sports Sciences, Ghent, Belgium.
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Segers
mesh_terms: D000886:Anthropometry; D001076:Aptitude; D054874:Athletic Performance / Q000502:physiology*; D003163:Competitive Behavior / Q000502:physiology; D005260:Female; D006173:Gymnastics / Q000502:physiology*; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D007866:Leg / Q000502:physiology; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D009048:Motor Skills / Q000502:physiology*; D053580:Muscle Strength / Q000502:physiology; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012782:Shoulder / Q000502:physiology