title: Markets, Herding and Response to External Information.
abstract: We focus on the influence of external sources of information upon financial markets. In particular, we develop a stochastic agent-based market model characterized by a certain herding behavior as well as allowing traders to be influenced by an external dynamic signal of information. This signal can be interpreted as a time-varying advertising, public perception or rumor, in favor or against one of two possible trading behaviors, thus breaking the symmetry of the system and acting as a continuously varying exogenous shock. As an illustration, we use a well-known German Indicator of Economic Sentiment as information input and compare our results with Germany's leading stock market index, the DAX, in order to calibrate some of the model parameters. We study the conditions for the ensemble of agents to more accurately follow the information input signal. The response of the system to the external information is maximal for an intermediate range of values of a market parameter, suggesting the existence of three different market regimes: amplification, precise assimilation and undervaluation of incoming information.
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (IFISC), CSIC-UIB, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
authors.forename: Adrián
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Carro
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (IFISC), CSIC-UIB, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
authors.forename: Raúl
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Toral
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (IFISC), CSIC-UIB, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
authors.forename: Maxi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: San Miguel
mesh_terms: D003132:Commerce / Q000191:economics*; D005376:Financial Management / Q000191:economics*; D006801:Humans; D007449:Investments / Q000191:economics*; D018803:Models, Economic