title: Maintenance Dialysis throughout the World in Years 1990 and 2010.
abstract: Rapidly rising global rates of chronic diseases portend a consequent rise in ESRD. Despite this, kidney disease is not included in the list of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) targeted by the United Nations for 25% reduction by year 2025. In an effort to accurately report the trajectory and pattern of global growth of maintenance dialysis, we present the change in prevalence and incidence from 1990 to 2010. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 epidemiologic database. The results are on the basis of an analysis of data from worldwide national and regional renal disease registries and detailed systematic literature review for years 1980-2010. Incidence and prevalence estimates of provision of maintenance dialysis from this database were updated using a negative binomial Bayesian meta-regression tool for 187 countries. Results indicate substantial growth in utilization of maintenance dialysis in almost all world regions. Changes in population structure, changes in aging, and the worldwide increase in diabetes mellitus and hypertension explain a significant portion, but not all, of the increase because increased dialysis provision also accounts for a portion of the rise. These findings argue for the importance of inclusion of kidney disease among NCD targets for reducing premature death throughout the world.
authors.affiliation: Kidney Research Institute and Division of Nephrology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; bathomas@uw.edu.
authors.forename: Bernadette
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wulf
authors.affiliation: Nephrology, A. I. Evdokimov Moscow State University of Medicine and Dentistry, Moscow, Russian Federation; Department of Nephrology Issues of Transplanted Kidney, Academician V. I. Shumakov Federal Research Center of Transplantology and Artificial Organs, Moscow, Russian Federation; Moscow City Nephrology Center, Moscow City Hospital 52, Moscow, Russian Federation;
authors.forename: Boris
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Bikbov
authors.affiliation: Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCC), Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Bergamo, Italy;
authors.forename: Norberto
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Perico
authors.affiliation: Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCC), Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Bergamo, Italy;
authors.forename: Monica
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cortinovis
authors.affiliation: Hospital Dr. Gustavo N Collado, Puerto Chitre, Panama; and.
authors.forename: Karen
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Courville de Vaccaro
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
authors.forename: Abraham
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Flaxman
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
authors.forename: Hannah
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Peterson
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
authors.forename: Allyne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Delossantos
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
authors.forename: Diana
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Haring
authors.affiliation: Kidney Research Institute and Division of Nephrology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
authors.forename: Rajnish
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mehrotra
authors.affiliation: Kidney Research Institute and Division of Nephrology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
authors.forename: Jonathan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Himmelfarb
authors.affiliation: Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IRCC), Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Bergamo, Italy; Unit of Nephrology, Dialysis and Transplantation, Azienda Ospedaliera Papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy.
authors.forename: Giuseppe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Remuzzi
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
authors.forename: Christopher
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Murray
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
authors.forename: Mohsen
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Naghavi
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003906:Developing Countries; D048909:Diabetes Complications / Q000628:therapy; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000473:pathology; D005260:Female; D005843:Geography; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology; D015994:Incidence; D007676:Kidney Failure, Chronic / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000628:therapy*; D016030:Kidney Transplantation; D008297:Male; D015995:Prevalence; D011788:Quality of Life; D012042:Registries; D012044:Regression Analysis; D006435:Renal Dialysis / Q000639:trends*; D012737:Sex Factors
keywords: ESRD; chronic dialysis; diabetes mellitus