title: Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case.
abstract: To guide risk assessment, expected numbers of cases and generations were estimated, assuming a case importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Our analysis of 36 importation events yielded the risk of observing secondary transmission events at 22.7% (95% confidence interval: 19.3–25.1). The risks of observing generations 2, 3 and 4 were estimated at 10.5%, 6.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Countries at risk should be ready for highly variable outcomes following an importation of MERS.
authors.affiliation: Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nishiura
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Miyamatsu
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Chowell
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Saitoh
mesh_terms: D018352:Coronavirus Infections / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D003428:Cross Infection / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D008877:Middle East / Q000453:epidemiology; D065207:Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D013997:Time Factors; D014195:Travel