title: Brick tunnel randomization and the momentum of the probability mass.
abstract: The allocation space of an unequal-allocation permuted block randomization can be quite wide. The development of unequal-allocation procedures with a narrower allocation space, however, is complicated by the need to preserve the unconditional allocation ratio at every step (the allocation ratio preserving (ARP) property). When the allocation paths are depicted on the K-dimensional unitary grid, where allocation to the l-th treatment is represented by a step along the l-th axis, l = 1 to K, the ARP property can be expressed in terms of the center of the probability mass after i allocations. Specifically, for an ARP allocation procedure that randomizes subjects to K treatment groups in w1 :⋯:wK ratio, w1 +⋯+wK =1, the coordinates of the center of the mass are (w1 i,…,wK i). In this paper, the momentum with respect to the center of the probability mass (expected imbalance in treatment assignments) is used to compare ARP procedures in how closely they approximate the target allocation ratio. It is shown that the two-arm and three-arm brick tunnel randomizations (BTR) are the ARP allocation procedures with the tightest allocation space among all allocation procedures with the same allocation ratio; the two-arm BTR is the minimum-momentum two-arm ARP allocation procedure. Resident probabilities of two-arm and three-arm BTR are analytically derived from the coordinates of the center of the probability mass; the existence of the respective transition probabilities is proven. Probability of deterministic assignments with BTR is found generally acceptable. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
authors.affiliation: Late Development Statistics, Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Olga M
authors.initials: OM
authors.lastname: Kuznetsova
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D056808:Biostatistics; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011336:Probability; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015983:Selection Bias
keywords: allocation ratio preserving randomization; brick tunnel randomization; imbalance in treatment totals; large block size; restricted randomization; unequal allocation