title: [Validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital of Lima, Peru (June 2012-December 2013)].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a major cause of hospitalization and the most prevalent emergency worldwide, with a mortality rate of up to 14%. In Peru, there have not been any studies on the use of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study is to perform an external validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System and to establish the best cutoff for predicting mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital of Lima, Peru.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was a longitudinal, retrospective, analytical validation study, with data from patients with a clinical and endoscopic diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal bleeding treated at the Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage Unit of the Hospital Nacional Edgardo Rebagliati Martins between June 2012 and December 2013. We calculated the area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality with a 95% confidence interval.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 339 records were analyzed. 57.5% were male and the mean age (standard deviation) was 67.0 (15.7) years. The median of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System obtained in the population was 12. The ROC analysis for death gave an area under the curve of 0.59 (95% CI 0.5-0.7). Stratifying by type of upper gastrointestinal bleeding resulted in an area under the curve of 0.66 (95% CI 0.53-0.78) for non-variceal type.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In this population, the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System has no diagnostic validity for predicting mortality.
authors.forename: Alessandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cassana
authors.forename: Silvia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Scialom
authors.forename: Eddy  R
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Segura
authors.forename: Alfonso
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Chacaltana
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D006471:Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality*; D006779:Hospitals, Public; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010568:Peru; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D055815:Young Adult