title: The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost in Guangzhou, China.
abstract: Limited evidence is available on the association between temperature and years of life lost (YLL). We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China. We found that hot effects appeared immediately, while cold effects were more delayed and lasted for 14 days. On average, 1 °C decrease from 25(th) to 1(st) percentile of temperature was associated with an increase of 31.15 (95%CI: 20.57, 41.74), 12.86 (8.05, 17.68) and 6.64 (3.68, 9.61) YLL along lag 0-14 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively. The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75(th) to 99(th) percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (-2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (-2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (-1.54, 7.16). Effect estimates of cold and hot temperatures-related YLL were higher in people aged up to 75 years and persons with low education level than the elderly and those with high education level, respectively. The mortality risks associated with cold and hot temperatures were greater on the elderly and persons with low education level. This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.
authors.affiliation: 1] State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China [2] Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.
authors.forename: Jun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China.
authors.forename: Chun-Quan
authors.initials: CQ
authors.lastname: Ou
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4006, Australia.
authors.forename: Yuming
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China.
authors.forename: Li
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China.
authors.forename: Cui
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China.
authors.forename: Ping-Yan
authors.initials: PY
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Qunxian Road, 160, Guangzhou 511430, China.
authors.forename: Hua-Liang
authors.initials: HL
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: 1] State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China [2] Climate Change and Health Center, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.
authors.forename: Qi-Yong
authors.initials: QY
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality; D002681:China; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change / Q000401:mortality*; D003080:Cold Temperature; D005260:Female; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D012140:Respiratory Tract Diseases / Q000401:mortality