title: Heat-related mortality projections for cardiovascular and respiratory disease under the changing climate in Beijing, China.
abstract: Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4%, 47.8%, and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6%,73.8% and 134% in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21(st) century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.
authors.affiliation: 1] State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian 100875, Beijing, China [2] Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 29 Nanwei Road, Xicheng, 100050 Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Tiantian
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 29 Nanwei Road, Xicheng, 100050 Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Jie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ban
authors.affiliation: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 545 W112th Street, New York, NY 10027 USA.
authors.forename: Radley M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Horton
authors.affiliation: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 545 W112th Street, New York, NY 10027 USA.
authors.forename: Daniel A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Bader
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, No. 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian 100875, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Ganlin
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 29 Nanwei Road, Xicheng, 100050 Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Qinghua
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, Room 1104E, NY 10032 New York, USA.
authors.forename: Patrick L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Kinney
mesh_terms: D000068476:Beijing; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality*; D002319:Cardiovascular System / Q000503:physiopathology; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change / Q000401:mortality*; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011634:Public Health / Q000379:methods; D012140:Respiratory Tract Diseases / Q000401:mortality*; D018570:Risk Assessment