title: Modeling the impact of rubella vaccination in Vietnam.
abstract: Supported by GAVI Alliance, measles-rubella vaccination was introduced in Vietnam in 2014, involving a mass campaign among 1-14 year olds and routine immunization of children aged 9 months. We explore the impact on the incidence of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) during 2013-2050 of this strategy and variants involving women aged 15-35 years. We use an age and sex-structured dynamic transmission model, set up using recently-collected seroprevalence data from Central Vietnam, and also consider different levels of transmission and contact patterns. If the serological profile resembles that in Central Vietnam, the planned vaccination strategy could potentially prevent 125,000 CRS cases by 2050 in Vietnam, despite outbreaks predicted in the meantime. Targeting the initial campaign at 15-35 year old women with or without children aged 9 months-14 years led to sustained reductions in incidence, unless levels of ongoing transmission were medium-high before vaccination started. Assumptions about contact greatly influenced predictions if the initial campaign just targeted 15-35 year old women and/or levels of ongoing transmission were medium-high. Given increased interest in rubella vaccination, resulting from GAVI Alliance funding, the findings are relevant for many countries.
authors.affiliation: a Public Health England ; London , UK.|b London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine ; London , UK.
authors.forename: Emilia
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Vynnycky
authors.affiliation: c Nagasaki University ; Nagasaki , Japan.
authors.forename: Lay Myint
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Yoshida
authors.affiliation: d National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology ; Hanoi , Vietnam.
authors.forename: Dang Thi Thanh
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Huyen
authors.affiliation: d National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology ; Hanoi , Vietnam.
authors.forename: Nguyen Dac
authors.initials: ND
authors.lastname: Trung
authors.affiliation: e World Health Organization Representative Office for Vietnam ; Hanoi , Vietnam.
authors.forename: Kohei
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Toda
authors.affiliation: d National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology ; Hanoi , Vietnam.
authors.forename: Nguyen Van
authors.initials: NV
authors.lastname: Cuong
authors.affiliation: d National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology ; Hanoi , Vietnam.
authors.forename: Duong
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Thi Hong
authors.affiliation: c Nagasaki University ; Nagasaki , Japan.
authors.forename: Koya
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ariyoshi
authors.affiliation: c Nagasaki University ; Nagasaki , Japan.
authors.forename: Masami
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Miyakawa
authors.affiliation: c Nagasaki University ; Nagasaki , Japan.
authors.forename: Hiroyuki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Moriuchi
authors.affiliation: f Khanh Hoa Provincial Public Health Service ; Nha Trang , Vietnam.
authors.forename: Le Huu
authors.initials: le H
authors.lastname: Tho
authors.affiliation: d National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology ; Hanoi , Vietnam.
authors.forename: Hien Anh
authors.initials: HA
authors.lastname: Nguyen
authors.affiliation: d National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology ; Hanoi , Vietnam.
authors.forename: Dang
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Duc Anh
authors.affiliation: a Public Health England ; London , UK.|b London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine ; London , UK.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jit
authors.affiliation: d National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology ; Hanoi , Vietnam.
authors.forename: Nguyen Tran
authors.initials: NT
authors.lastname: Hien
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000517:prevention & control; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012409:Rubella / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D012411:Rubella Vaccine / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000276:immunology*; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D014611:Vaccination; D014744:Vietnam / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D012411:Rubella Vaccine
keywords: rubella, Congenital Rubella Syndrome, measles-rubella vaccination, mathematical modelling, Vietnam