title: Predicting Adverse Health Outcomes in Long-Term Survivors of a Childhood Cancer.
abstract: More than 80% of children and young adults diagnosed with invasive cancer will survive five or more years beyond their cancer diagnosis. This population has an increased risk for serious illness- and treatment-related morbidity and premature mortality. A number of these adverse health outcomes, such as cardiovascular disease and some second primary neoplasms, either have modifiable risk factors or can be successfully treated if detected early. Absolute risk models that project a personalized risk of developing a health outcome can be useful in patient counseling, in designing intervention studies, in forming prevention strategies, and in deciding upon surveillance programs. Here, we review existing absolute risk prediction models that are directly applicable to survivors of a childhood cancer, discuss the concepts and interpretation of absolute risk models, and examine ways in which these models can be used applied in clinical practice and public health.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, 307 E 63rd Street, New York, NY 10065, USA.
authors.forename: Chaya S
authors.initials: CS
authors.lastname: Moskowitz
authors.affiliation: Departments of Medicine and Pediatrics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, 300 E 66th Street, 9th Floor, New York, NY 10065, USA.
authors.forename: Kevin C
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Oeffinger
keywords: clinical prediction tool; late effects; risk prediction model; second cancers