title: Spatial and temporal variation in the association between temperature and salmonellosis in NZ.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Modelling the relationship between weather, climate and infectious diseases can help identify high-risk periods and provide understanding of the determinants of longer-term trends. We provide a detailed examination of the non-linear and delayed association between temperature and salmonellosis in three New Zealand cities (Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch).
  
  
  METHODS
  Salmonella notifications were geocoded to the city of residence for the reported case. City-specific associations between weekly maximum temperature and the onset date for reported salmonella infections (1997-2007) were modelled using non-linear distributed lag models, while controlling for season and long-term trends.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Relatively high temperatures were positively associated with infection risk in Auckland (n=3,073) and Christchurch (n=880), although the former showed evidence of a more immediate relationship with exposure to high temperatures. There was no significant association between temperature and salmonellosis risk in Wellington.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Projected increases in temperature with climate change may have localised health impacts, suggesting that preventative measures will need to be region-specific. This evidence contributes to the increasing concern over the public health impacts of climate change.
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Australian Capital Territory.
authors.forename: Aparna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lal
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hales
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Australian Capital Territory.
authors.forename: Martyn
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kirk
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Michael G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Baker
authors.affiliation: Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Nigel P
authors.initials: NP
authors.lastname: French
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D006801:Humans; D009520:New Zealand / Q000453:epidemiology; D012478:Salmonella Food Poisoning / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D012480:Salmonella Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D012621:Seasons; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance; D013696:Temperature; D014887:Weather
keywords: lagged; non-linear; salomonellosis; temperature