title: Dynamical Analysis of an SEIT Epidemic Model with Application to Ebola Virus Transmission in Guinea.
abstract: In order to investigate the transmission mechanism of the infectious individual with Ebola virus, we establish an SEIT (susceptible, exposed in the latent period, infectious, and treated/recovery) epidemic model. The basic reproduction number is defined. The mathematical analysis on the existence and stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is given. As the applications of the model, we use the recognized infectious and death cases in Guinea to estimate parameters of the model by the least square method. With suitable parameter values, we obtain the estimated value of the basic reproduction number and analyze the sensitivity and uncertainty property by partial rank correlation coefficients.
authors.affiliation: College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 834800, China.
authors.forename: Zhiming
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 834800, China.
authors.forename: Zhidong
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Teng
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Yuncheng University, Yuncheng 044000, China.
authors.forename: Xiaomei
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.affiliation: College of Mathematics and Physics, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China.
authors.forename: Yingke
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 834800, China.
authors.forename: Huiguo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D001723:Birth Rate; D003140:Communicable Disease Control; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D029043:Ebolavirus; D058872:Epidemics; D016701:Guinea; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D016018:Least-Squares Analysis; D008433:Mathematics; D008962:Models, Theoretical