title: Potential impact of species and livestock density on the epidemic size and effectiveness of control measures for foot-and-mouth disease in Japan.
abstract: The characteristics of a livestock area, including farm density and animal species, influence the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). In this study, the impact of livestock area on FMD epidemics was examined using an FMD transmission model. For this simulation, three major livestock areas were selected: the 2010 FMD epidemic area in Japan as the baseline area (BS), a cattle and pig mixed production area (CP) and a cattle production area (C). Simulation results demonstrated that under the 24-hr culling policy, only 12% of epidemics among 1,000 simulations were abated within 100 days in the CP area, whereas 90% of the epidemics ceased in the BS area. In the C area, all epidemics were successfully contained within 100 days. Evaluation of additional control measures in the CP area showed that the 0.5-km pre-emptive culling, even when only targeting pig farms, raised the potential for successful containment to 94%. A 10-km vaccination on day 7 or 14 after initial detection was also effective in halting the epidemics (80%), but accompanied a large number of culled or vaccinated farms. The combined strategy of 10-km vaccination and 0.5-km pre-emptive culling targeting pig farms succeeded in containing all epidemics within 100 days. The present study suggests the importance of preparedness for the 24-hr culling policy and additional control measures when an FMD outbreak occurs in a densely populated area. Considering the characteristics of the livestock area is important in planning FMD control strategies.
authors.affiliation: Viral Disease and Epidemiology Research Division, National Institute of Animal Health, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0856, Japan.
authors.forename: Yoko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hayama
authors.forename: Takehisa
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Yamamoto
authors.forename: Sota
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kobayashi
authors.forename: Norihiko
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Muroga
authors.forename: Toshiyuki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Tsutsui
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000821:virology; D058872:Epidemics / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D058751:Livestock / Q000821:virology; D011156:Population Density; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000821:virology