title: Indonesian prostate cancer risk calculator (IPCRC): an application for predicting prostate cancer risk (a multicenter study).
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  to develop a prediction risk model of prostate cancer based on Indonesia population.
  
  
  METHODS
  we included all benign prostate hyperthrophy (BPH) and PCa patients who had prostate biopsy and prostatectomy between January 2009 and December 2013 from 5 urology centers in Indonesia. The relationship between the possibility of PCa with the following variables including: age; PSA level, prostate volume (by transabdominal ultrasound or transrectal ultrasound) and digital rectal examination (DRE) finding. We calculated a predictive scoring equation to predict the possibility of PCa using chi-square analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, multiple logistic regression and ROC curve. Then, we designed an application for predicting prostate cancer risk called Indonesian Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (IPCRC).
  
  
  RESULTS
  there were 784 PCa and 1173 BPH patients were used for developing the risk calculator in our study. The mean ages, PSA and prostate volume are 66.9±8.1 years old; 72.4±248.9 ng/ml and 49.6±28.2 ml, respectively. Abnormal DRE was found in 637 PCa and 56 BPH. We included age, PSA level, abnormal DRE finding (all showed significant p<0.05 in univariate model). Additionally, although not significant, we included prostate volume (p=0.157) due to its clinical importance. The corrected ROC analysis showed AUC 0.935, sensitivity of 90.1% and specificity 80% in predicting the prostate cancer in our population.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  we have developed the Indonesian Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator which includes age, PSA, DRE, and prostate volume as its variables. Future prospective study to validate the risk calculator is needed.
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia - Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia.
authors.forename: Prahara
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Yuri
authors.forename: Grace
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Wangge
authors.forename: Fatan
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Abshari
authors.forename: Adistra I T W H
authors.initials: AI
authors.lastname: Satjakoesoemah
authors.forename: Noor R
authors.initials: NR
authors.lastname: Perdana
authors.forename: Candra D K
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Wijaya
authors.forename: Christiano
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Tansol
authors.forename: Aaron
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Tigor
authors.forename: Ferry
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Safriadi
authors.forename: Dhiraya D
authors.initials: DD
authors.lastname: Kadar
authors.forename: Syah M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Warli
authors.forename: Sungsang
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rochadi
authors.lastname: Danarto
authors.forename: Lukman
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hakim
authors.forename: Wahjoe
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Djatisoesanto
authors.forename: Sunaryo
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hardjowijoto
authors.forename: Chaidir A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Mochtar
authors.forename: Rainy
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Umbas
authors.forename: Agus Rizal A H
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Hamid
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001706:Biopsy; D051517:Digital Rectal Examination; D006801:Humans; D007214:Indonesia; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood*; D011468:Prostatectomy; D011470:Prostatic Hyperplasia / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery; D012372:ROC Curve; D020379:Risk Adjustment; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
chemical_list: D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen