title: A Decision Support System Coupling Fuzzy Logic and Probabilistic Graphical Approaches for the Agri-Food Industry: Prediction of Grape Berry Maturity.
abstract: Agri-food is one of the most important sectors of the industry and a major contributor to the global warming potential in Europe. Sustainability issues pose a huge challenge for this sector. In this context, a big issue is to be able to predict the multiscale dynamics of those systems using computing science. A robust predictive mathematical tool is implemented for this sector and applied to the wine industry being easily able to be generalized to other applications. Grape berry maturation relies on complex and coupled physicochemical and biochemical reactions which are climate dependent. Moreover one experiment represents one year and the climate variability could not be covered exclusively by the experiments. Consequently, harvest mostly relies on expert predictions. A big challenge for the wine industry is nevertheless to be able to anticipate the reactions for sustainability purposes. We propose to implement a decision support system so called FGRAPEDBN able to (1) capitalize the heterogeneous fragmented knowledge available including data and expertise and (2) predict the sugar (resp. the acidity) concentrations with a relevant RMSE of 7 g/l (resp. 0.44 g/l and 0.11 g/kg). FGRAPEDBN is based on a coupling between a probabilistic graphical approach and a fuzzy expert system.
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Unité Génie et Microbiologie des Procédés Alimentaires, Thiverval-Grignon, France.
authors.forename: Nathalie
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Perrot
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - Institut de Mécanique et d'Ingénierie, Talence, France.
authors.forename: Cédric
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Baudrit
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - Institut de Mécanique et d'Ingénierie, Talence, France.
authors.forename: Jean Marie
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Brousset
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Unité Sciences Pour l'Œnologie, Montpellier, France.
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Abbal
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - Institut de Mécanique et d'Ingénierie, Talence, France.
authors.forename: Hervé
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Guillemin
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - Institut de Mécanique et d'Ingénierie, Talence, France.
authors.forename: Bruno
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Perret
authors.affiliation: Institut Français de la Vigne et du Vin, Unité de VINs, Innovations, Itinéraires, TERroirs et Acteurs, Amboise, France; InterLoire, Tours, France.
authors.forename: Etienne
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Goulet
authors.affiliation: Institut Français de la Vigne et du Vin, Unité de VINs, Innovations, Itinéraires, TERroirs et Acteurs, Amboise, France.
authors.forename: Laurence
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Guerin
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Unité Vigne et Vin, Beaucouzé, France.
authors.forename: Gérard
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Barbeau
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - Institut de Mécanique et d'Ingénierie, Talence, France.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Picque
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D005103:Expert Systems; D019649:Food Industry; D017143:Fuzzy Logic; D011336:Probability; D027843:Vitis