title: 21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating.
abstract: There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate-energy-water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.
authors.affiliation: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740; mohamad.hejazi@pnnl.gov.
authors.forename: Mohamad I
authors.initials: MI
authors.lastname: Hejazi
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
authors.forename: Nathalie
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Voisin
authors.affiliation: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740;
authors.forename: Lu
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
authors.forename: Lisa M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Bramer
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
authors.forename: Daniel C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Fortin
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
authors.forename: John E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Hathaway
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
authors.forename: Maoyi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740;
authors.forename: Page
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kyle
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
authors.forename: L Ruby
authors.initials: LR
authors.lastname: Leung
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
authors.forename: Hong-Yi
authors.initials: HY
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
authors.forename: Ying
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740;
authors.forename: Pralit L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Patel
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
authors.forename: Trenton C
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Pulsipher
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
authors.forename: Jennie S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Rice
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
authors.forename: Teklu K
authors.initials: TK
authors.lastname: Tesfa
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
authors.forename: Chris R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Vernon
authors.affiliation: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740;
authors.forename: Yuyu
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhou
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D005544:Forecasting; D005618:Fresh Water; D057232:Global Warming; D060587:Groundwater; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011640:Public Policy; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014481:United States; D058438:Water Cycle; D014881:Water Supply
keywords: Earth system model; climate change; integrated assessment; mitigation; water deficit