title: Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework.
abstract: We present a framework to measure the strength of environmental filtering and disequilibrium of the species composition of a local community across time, relative to past, current, and future climates. We demonstrate the framework by measuring the impact of climate change on New World forests, integrating data for climate niches of more than 14000 species, community composition of 471 New World forest plots, and observed climate across the most recent glacial-interglacial interval. We show that a majority of communities have species compositions that are strongly filtered and are more in equilibrium with current climate than random samples from the regional pool. Variation in the level of current community disequilibrium can be predicted from Last Glacial Maximum climate and will increase with near-future climate change.
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Blonder
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Nogués-Bravo
authors.forename: Michael K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Borregaard
authors.forename: John C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Donoghue
authors.forename: Peter M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Jørgensen
authors.forename: Nathan J B
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Kraft
authors.forename: Jean-Philippe
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Lessard
authors.forename: Naia
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Morueta-Holme
authors.forename: Brody
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Sandel
authors.forename: Jens-Christian
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Svenning
authors.forename: Cyrille
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Violle
authors.forename: Carsten
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Rahbek
authors.forename: Brian J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Enquist
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas; D057231:Climate Change; D065928:Forests; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013997:Time Factors