title: Projecting excess emergency department visits and associated costs in Brisbane, Australia, under population growth and climate change scenarios.
abstract: The direct and indirect health effects of increasingly warmer temperatures are likely to further burden the already overcrowded hospital emergency departments (EDs). Using current trends and estimates in conjunction with future population growth and climate change scenarios, we show that the increased number of hot days in the future can have a considerable impact on EDs, adding to their workload and costs. The excess number of visits in 2030 is projected to range between 98-336 and 42-127 for younger and older groups, respectively. The excess costs in 2012-13 prices are estimated to range between AU$51,000-184,000 (0-64) and AU$27,000-84,000 (65+). By 2060, these estimates will increase to 229-2300 and 145-1188 at a cost of between AU$120,000-1,200,000 and AU$96,000-786,000 for the respective age groups. Improvements in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to generate synergistic health co-benefits and reduce the impact on frontline health services.
authors.affiliation: Research Fellow, School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059, Australia.
authors.forename: Ghasem Sam
authors.initials: GS
authors.lastname: Toloo
authors.affiliation: Associate Professor, School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059, Australia.
authors.forename: Wenbiao
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: Professor, School of Public Health and Social Work; Director, Centre for Disaster and Emergency Management, Queensland University of Technology, Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059, Australia.
authors.forename: Gerry
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: FitzGerald
authors.affiliation: Medical Director, Retrieval Services and Counter Disaster Unit, Queensland Health, 147-163 Charlotte St, Brisbane, QLD 4000, Australia.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Aitken
authors.affiliation: Professor &Leader, Ecosystem Change and Population Health Program, School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4059, Australia.
authors.forename: Shilu
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tong
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D057231:Climate Change / Q000191:economics*; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D003695:Delivery of Health Care / Q000191:economics*; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital / Q000191:economics*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018803:Models, Economic