title: Precipitation reconstruction for the northwestern Chinese Altay since 1760 indicates the drought signals of the northern part of inner Asia.
abstract: Based on the significant positive correlations between the regional tree-ring width chronology and local climate data, the total precipitation of the previous July to the current June was reconstructed since AD 1760 for the northwestern Chinese Altay. The reconstruction model accounts for 40.7 % of the actual precipitation variance during the calibration period from 1959 to 2013. Wet conditions prevailed during the periods 1764-1777, 1784-1791, 1795-1805, 1829-1835, 1838-1846, 1850-1862, 1867-1872, 1907-1916, 1926-1931, 1935-1943, 1956-1961, 1968-1973, 1984-1997, and 2002-2006. Dry episodes occurred during 1760-1763, 1778-1783, 1792-1794, 1806-1828, 1836-1837, 1847-1849, 1863-1866, 1873-1906, 1917-1925, 1932-1934, 1944-1955, 1962-1967, 1974-1983, 1998-2001, and 2007-2012. The spectral analysis of the precipitation reconstruction shows the existence of some cycles (15.3, 4.5, 3.1, 2.7, and 2.1 years). The significant correlations with the gridded precipitation dataset revealed that the precipitation reconstruction represents the precipitation variation for a large area of the northern part of inner Asia. A comparison with the precipitation reconstruction from the southern Chinese Altay shows the high level of confidence for the precipitation reconstruction for the northwestern Chinese Altay. Precipitation variation of the northwestern Chinese Altay is positively correlated with sea surface temperatures in tropical oceans, suggesting a possible linkage of the precipitation variation of the northwestern Chinese Altay to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The synoptic climatology analysis reveals that there is the relationship between anomalous atmospheric circulation and extreme climate events in the northwestern Chinese Altay.
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree Ring Ecology, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, 830002, China. feng653@163.com.
authors.forename: Feng
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree Ring Ecology, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, 830002, China.
authors.forename: Yujiang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yuan
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree Ring Ecology, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, 830002, China.
authors.forename: Tongwen
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree Ring Ecology, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, 830002, China.
authors.forename: Huaming
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Shang
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D055864:Droughts / Q000266:history*; D049671:History, 18th Century; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D028221:Larix / Q000254:growth & development; D028222:Picea / Q000254:growth & development; D011891:Rain; D012914:Snow; D014197:Trees / Q000254:growth & development*
keywords: Northwestern Chinese Altay; Precipitation reconstruction; Synoptic climatology analysis; Tree rings