title: Global inequities between polluters and the polluted: climate change impacts on coral reefs.
abstract: For many ecosystem services, it remains uncertain whether the impacts of climate change will be mostly negative or positive and how these changes will be geographically distributed. These unknowns hamper the identification of regional winners and losers, which can influence debate over climate policy. Here, we use coral reefs to explore the spatial variability of climate stress by modelling the ecological impacts of rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification, two important coral stressors associated with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We then combine these results with national per capita emissions to quantify inequities arising from the distribution of cause (CO2 emissions) and effect (stress upon reefs) among coral reef countries. We find pollution and coral stress are spatially decoupled, creating substantial inequity of impacts as a function of emissions. We then consider the implications of such inequity for international climate policy. Targets for GHG reductions are likely to be tied to a country's emissions. Yet within a given level of GHG emissions, our analysis reveals that some countries experience relatively high levels of impact and will likely experience greater financial cost in terms of lost ecosystem productivity and more extensive adaptation measures. We suggest countries so disadvantaged be given access to international adaptation funds proportionate with impacts to their ecosystem. We raise the idea that funds could be more equitably allocated by formally including a metric of equity within a vulnerability framework.
authors.affiliation: Marine Spatial Ecology Lab and Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Nicholas H
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Wolff
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, 1984 West Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z2, Canada.
authors.forename: Simon D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Donner
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China.
authors.forename: Long
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Cao
authors.affiliation: Unidad Académica Puerto Morelos, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Apdo. Postal 1152, Cancún, Q. R. 77500, Mexico.
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Iglesias-Prieto
authors.affiliation: Institute for Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University, Hamilton, ON, L8P 0A1, Canada.
authors.forename: Peter F
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Sale
authors.affiliation: Marine Spatial Ecology Lab and Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Peter J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Mumby
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis; D057231:Climate Change; D057894:Coral Reefs; D058735:Environmental Policy / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D005740:Gases / Q000032:analysis; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006863:Hydrogen-Ion Concentration; D008954:Models, Biological; D012623:Seawater / Q000737:chemistry*
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D005740:Gases
keywords: Green Climate Fund; bleaching; climate change; coral reefs; equity; ocean acidification; vulnerability