title: Incomplete coexistence systems and international food trade impacts.
abstract: Trade disruptions have been both common and costly for the few GM crops that are produced and marketed. We use a range of adoption studies (compiled by Smyth et al. in Handbook on Agriculture, Biotechnology and Development, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd, Cheltenham, 2014a), regulatory data and production and trade data to quantify the scale for low level presence incidents. To gain a full perspective on the potential scale of this problem in coming years, we use a combination of recent GM trait commercialization studies and corporate pipeline analysis to identify which traits are planned for which products and the countries in which the technology is likely to be commercialized. Their potential impact will be a result of the intended markets, the regulatory process (especially asynchronous decisions) and the scale and scope of trade in those products. Finally, the article examines the potential for some existing trade and industry institutions to manage the inherent risks of uncertain markets and market impacts.
authors.affiliation: Department Bioresource Policy, Business and Economics, University of Saskatchewan, 51 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 5A8, Canada. stuart.smyth@usask.ca.
authors.forename: Stuart J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Smyth
authors.affiliation: Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Saskatchewan, 101 Diefenbaker Place, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 5B8, Canada. peter.phillips@usask.ca.
authors.forename: Peter W B
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Phillips
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D001709:Biotechnology / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D003132:Commerce / Q000191:economics*; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000191:economics* / Q000235:genetics*; D005523:Food Supply / Q000191:economics*; D007391:International Cooperation; D030821:Plants, Genetically Modified / Q000235:genetics*; D011640:Public Policy
keywords: Food security; International institutions; Low level presence; Regulation of genetically modified crops; Trade disruptions