title: Measuring and mitigating agricultural greenhouse gas production in the US Great Plains, 1870-2000.
abstract: The Great Plains region of the United States is an agricultural production center for the global market and, as such, an important source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This article uses historical agricultural census data and ecosystem models to estimate the magnitude of annual GHG fluxes from all agricultural sources (e.g., cropping, livestock raising, irrigation, fertilizer production, tractor use) in the Great Plains from 1870 to 2000. Here, we show that carbon (C) released during the plow-out of native grasslands was the largest source of GHG emissions before 1930, whereas livestock production, direct energy use, and soil nitrous oxide emissions are currently the largest sources. Climatic factors mediate these emissions, with cool and wet weather promoting C sequestration and hot and dry weather increasing GHG release. This analysis demonstrates the long-term ecosystem consequences of both historical and current agricultural activities, but also indicates that adoption of available alternative management practices could substantially mitigate agricultural GHG fluxes, ranging from a 34% reduction with a 25% adoption rate to as much as complete elimination with possible net sequestration of C when a greater proportion of farmers adopt new agricultural practices.
authors.affiliation: Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523; william.parton@colostate.edu.
authors.forename: William J
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Parton
authors.affiliation: Institute of Behavioral Science and Department of History, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309;
authors.forename: Myron P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Gutmann
authors.affiliation: Institute for Social Research and Department of History, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48106;
authors.forename: Emily R
authors.initials: ER
authors.lastname: Merchant
authors.affiliation: Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523;
authors.forename: Melannie D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Hartman
authors.affiliation: US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, University Park, PA 16802.
authors.forename: Paul R
authors.initials: PR
authors.lastname: Adler
authors.affiliation: US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, University Park, PA 16802.
authors.forename: Frederick M
authors.initials: FM
authors.lastname: McNeal
authors.affiliation: Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523;
authors.forename: Susan M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Lutz
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D005740:Gases; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D014481:United States
chemical_list: D005740:Gases
keywords: Great Plains; agricultural management; biogeochemistry; greenhouse gases; modeling