title: Understanding complex biogeographic responses to climate change.
abstract: Predicting the extent and direction of species' range shifts is a major priority for scientists and resource managers. Seminal studies have fostered the notion that biological systems responding to climate change-impacted variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation) should exhibit poleward range shifts but shifts contrary to that expectation have been frequently reported. Understanding whether those shifts are indeed contrary to climate change predictions involves understanding the most basic mechanisms determining the distribution of species. We assessed the patterns of ecologically relevant temperature metrics (e.g., daily range, min, max) along the European Atlantic coast. Temperature metrics have contrasting geographical patterns and latitude or the grand mean are poor predictors for many of them. Our data suggest that unless the appropriate metrics are analysed, the impact of climate change in even a single metric of a single stressor may lead to range shifts in directions that would otherwise be classified as "contrary to prediction".
authors.affiliation: 1] CIBIO/InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Universidade do Porto, Campus Agrário de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal [2] Departamento de Biologia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto, R. Campo Alegre, s/n, 4169-007 Porto, Portugal.
authors.forename: Rui
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Seabra
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208.
authors.forename: David S
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Wethey
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Biologia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto, R. Campo Alegre, s/n, 4169-007 Porto, Portugal.
authors.forename: António M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Santos
authors.affiliation: CIBIO/InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Universidade do Porto, Campus Agrário de Vairão, 4485-661, Vairão, Portugal.
authors.forename: Fernando P
authors.initials: FP
authors.lastname: Lima
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D008954:Models, Biological