Predicting urban design effects on physical activity and public health: A case study.
With increasing global concerns about obesity and related health effects, tools to predict how urban form affects population physical activity and health are needed. However, such tools have not been well established. This article develops a computer simulation model for forecasting the health effects of urban features that promote walking. The article demonstrates the model using a proposed small-area plan for a neighborhood of 10,400 residents in Raleigh, North Carolina, one of the fastest-growing and most sprawling U.S. cities. The simulation model predicts that the plan would increase average daily time spent walking for transportation by 17 min. As a result, annual deaths from all causes are predicted to decrease by 5.5%. Annual new cases of diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and hypertension are predicted to decline by 1.9%, 2.3%, 1.3%, and 1.6%, respectively. The present value of these health benefits is $21,000 per resident.
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Campus Box 7431, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-7431, USA. Electronic address: Jackie.macdonald@unc.edu.
Jacqueline
J
MacDonald Gibson
Department of City and Regional Planning and Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Daniel
D
Rodriguez
Department of City and Regional Planning and Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Taylor
T
Dennerlein
Department of City and Regional Planning and Department of Health Behavior and Health Education, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Jill
J
Mead
Raleigh Urban Design Center, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Trisha
T
Hasch
Raleigh Urban Design Center, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Grant
G
Meacci
Wake Internal Medicine Consultants and University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Raleigh, NC, USA.
Stuart
S
Levin
D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control; D002958:City Planning / Q000379:methods*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000517:prevention & control; D015444:Exercise; D000070497:Healthy Lifestyle; D006801:Humans; D009657:North Carolina; D011634:Public Health / Q000379:methods*; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D014186:Transportation; D016138:Walking
Built environment; Chronic disease; Environmental health; Health impact assessment; Physical activity