Predicting potential ranges of primary malaria vectors and malaria in northern South America based on projected changes in climate, land cover and human population.
BACKGROUND
Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) as well as climate are likely to affect the geographic distribution of malaria vectors and parasites in the coming decades. At present, malaria transmission is concentrated mainly in the Amazon basin where extensive agriculture, mining, and logging activities have resulted in changes to local and regional hydrology, massive loss of forest cover, and increased contact between malaria vectors and hosts.


METHODS
Employing presence-only records, bioclimatic, topographic, hydrologic, LULC and human population data, we modeled the distribution of malaria and two of its dominant vectors, Anopheles darlingi, and Anopheles nuneztovari s.l. in northern South America using the species distribution modeling platform Maxent.


RESULTS
Results from our land change modeling indicate that about 70,000 km(2) of forest land would be lost by 2050 and 78,000 km(2) by 2070 compared to 2010. The Maxent model predicted zones of relatively high habitat suitability for malaria and the vectors mainly within the Amazon and along coastlines. While areas with malaria are expected to decrease in line with current downward trends, both vectors are predicted to experience range expansions in the future. Elevation, annual precipitation and temperature were influential in all models both current and future. Human population mostly affected An. darlingi distribution while LULC changes influenced An. nuneztovari s.l. distribution.


CONCLUSIONS
As the region tackles the challenge of malaria elimination, investigations such as this could be useful for planning and management purposes and aid in predicting and addressing potential impediments to elimination.
Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, USA. t.alimi@umiami.edu.
Temitope O
TO
Alimi
Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, USA. dofuller@miami.edu.
Douglas O
DO
Fuller
Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA. w.qualls@med.miami.edu.
Whitney A
WA
Qualls
Centro de Investigación Científica Caucaseco, Cali, Colombia. sherrera@inmuno.org.|School of Health, Valle State University, Cali, Colombia. sherrera@inmuno.org.
Socrates V
SV
Herrera
Centro de Investigación Científica Caucaseco, Cali, Colombia. marevalo@inmuno.org.|School of Health, Valle State University, Cali, Colombia. marevalo@inmuno.org.
Myriam
M
Arevalo-Herrera
Department of Public Health, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia. marthalquinones@gmail.com.
Martha L
ML
Quinones
Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr Heitor Vieira Dourado, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. marcuslacerda.br@gmail.com.|Instituto de Pesquisa Leônidas & Maria Deane (FIOCRUZ Amazonas), Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. marcuslacerda.br@gmail.com.
Marcus V G
MV
Lacerda
Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA. jbeier@med.miami.edu.
John C
JC
Beier
D000383:Agriculture; D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000502:physiology*; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D011158:Population Growth; D013020:South America / Q000453:epidemiology