Identify Survival Predictors of the First Kidney Transplantation: A Retrospective Cohort Study.
BACKGROUND
The first kidney transplant survival is very important. We know that short-term survival of kidney transplantation is improved over the past two decades in Iran; however, no information is available on long-term survival and predictors. This study explored factors influencing long-term renal transplant survival at northwest of Iran.


METHODS
In this single-center, study, survival rates and half-life of 201 the first kidney transplants between 1999 and 2008 were measured by a historical-cohort study in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Urmia, Iran. The log-rank test and Cox-regression model were used to compare survival curves and determine factor affecting graft survival time, respectively.


RESULTS
First graft survival from one, five, and 10 years was 96%, 89%, and 46%, respectively. Mean±se and median±se of first graft survival time was 3061±105.01 day (95% CI: 2855.47-3267.11 day) and 3411±282.1 day (95%CI: 2858.08-3963.92), respectively. Predictors of first graft rejection were recipient age (P=0.001), LDL cholesterol (P=0.008), immunosuppressive drugs (P=0.047), serum creatinine three and six months (P=0.042 and 0.001, respectively) and related donor family (P=0.037).


CONCLUSIONS
Patients with first graft transplantation had a moderate long-term survival. The study showed that small age at transplant, low LDL cholesterol before transplant, and relative to donor, could be decrease the risk graft loss.
Modeling of Noncommunicable Disease Research Center and Dept. of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Ali-Reza
AR
Soltanian
Research Center for Health Sciences and Dept. of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Hossein
H
Mahjub
Dept. of Urology Surgical Center, Imam Khomeini Hospital, Urmia, Iran.
Ali
A
Taghizadeeh-Afshari
Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics, School of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, University of Urmia, Urmia, Iran.
Gholamreza
G
Gholami
Dept. of Biostatistics & Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Hojjat
H
Sayyadi
Graft survival; Kidney transplantation; Surgery