Multimodal imaging measures predict rearrest.
Rearrest has been predicted by hemodynamic activity in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) during error-processing (Aharoni et al., 2013). Here, we evaluate the predictive power after adding an additional imaging modality in a subsample of 45 incarcerated males from Aharoni et al. (2013). Event-related potentials (ERPs) and hemodynamic activity were collected during a Go/NoGo response inhibition task. Neural measures of error-processing were obtained from the ACC and two ERP components, the error-related negativity (ERN/Ne) and the error positivity (Pe). Measures from the Pe and ACC differentiated individuals who were and were not subsequently rearrested. Cox regression, logistic regression, and support vector machine (SVM) neuroprediction models were calculated. Each of these models proved successful in predicting rearrest and SVM provided the strongest results. Multimodal neuroprediction SVM models with out of sample cross-validating accurately predicted rearrest (83.33%). Offenders with increased Pe amplitude and decreased ACC activation, suggesting abnormal error-processing, were at greatest risk of rearrest.
Mind Research Network and Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Institute, Albuquerque NM, USA.
Vaughn R
VR
Steele
Mind Research Network and Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Institute, Albuquerque NM, USA.
Eric D
ED
Claus
RAND Corporation, Santa Monica CA, USA.
Eyal
E
Aharoni
University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester MA, USA.
Gina M
GM
Vincent
Mind Research Network and Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Institute, Albuquerque NM, USA ; University of New Mexico, Albuquerque NM, USA ; Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven CT, USA.
Vince D
VD
Calhoun
Mind Research Network and Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Institute, Albuquerque NM, USA ; University of New Mexico, Albuquerque NM, USA.
Kent A
KA
Kiehl
error-processing; event-related potentials; functional magnetic resonance imaging; neuroprediction; recidivism