title: Climate Change and Risk Projection: Dynamic Spatial Models of Tsetse and African Trypanosomiasis in Kenya.
abstract: African trypanosomiasis, otherwise known assleeping sicknessin humans andnaganain animals, is a parasitic protist passed cyclically by the tsetse fly. Despite more than a century of control and eradication efforts, the fly remains widely distributed across Africa and coextensive with other prevalent diseases. Control and planning are hampered by spatially and temporally variant vector distributions, ecologically irrelevant boundaries, and neglect. Tsetse are particularly well suited to move into previously disease-free areas under climate change scenarios, placing unprepared populations at risk. Here we present the modeling framework ATcast, which combines a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with a temporally and spatially dynamic species distribution model to predict tsetse populations over space and time. These modeled results are integrated with Kenyan population data to predict, for the period 2050 to 2059, exposure potential to tsetse and, by association, sleeping sickness and nagana across Kenya.
authors: Department of Geography, Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, and AgBioResearch, Michigan State University.
authors: Joseph P
authors: JP
authors: Messina
authors: Department of Geography and Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, and Department of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
authors: Nathan J
authors: NJ
authors: Moore
authors: Department of Geography, Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, and AgBioResearch, Michigan State University.
authors: Mark H
authors: MH
authors: DeVisser
authors: Department of Geography, Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, and AgBioResearch, Michigan State University.
authors: Paul F
authors: PF
authors: McCord
authors: Department of Entomology and Department of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, Michigan State University.
authors: Edward D
authors: ED
authors: Walker
keywords: Kenya; climate change; risk projection; spatial models; tsetse