title: Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model.
abstract: In the absence of effective vaccines, antiviral drugs and personal protective measures, such as voluntary self-isolation, have been a part of preparedness plans for the next influenza pandemic. We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early. We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset. For example, for the baseline household reproduction number RH0 = 2:5, if delays of one or two days occur between clinical symptom development and the start of antiviral prophylaxis, then compliance rates of q ≥ 0:41 and q ≥ 0:6, respectively, are required to achieve the same level of effectiveness as starting antiviral prophylaxis at symptom onset. When the time to beginning voluntary self-isolation after symptom onset increases from zero to two days, this strategy has a limited effect on reducing the transmission of influenza; therefore, this strategy should be implemented as soon as possible. In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing.
authors: School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No. 2006, Xiyuan Avenue, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu 611731, China. zqx121981@126.com.|School of Sciences, Southwest Petroleum University, No.8, Xindu Avenue, Xindu District, Chengdu 610500, China. zqx121981@126.com.
authors: Qingxia
authors: Q
authors: Zhang
authors: School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No. 2006, Xiyuan Avenue, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu 611731, China. wangdc@uestc.edu.cn.
authors: Dingcheng
authors: D
authors: Wang
mesh_terms: D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D058345:Asymptomatic Infections / Q000628:therapy; D005191:Family Characteristics; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000821:virology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D058873:Pandemics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D010356:Patient Isolation; D011790:Quarantine; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents
keywords: antiviralprophylaxis; household reproduction number; mathematical modeling; pandemic influenza; voluntary self-isolation