title: External validation and comparison of two nomograms predicting the probability of Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy pathology in two patient populations: a retrospective cohort study.
abstract: The aim of this study is to validate and compare the predictive accuracy of two nomograms predicting the probability of Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy pathology among representative patients with prostate cancer. We previously developed a nomogram, as did Chun et al. In this validation study, patients originated from two centers: Toho University Sakura Medical Center (n = 214) and Chibaken Saiseikai Narashino Hospital (n = 216). We assessed predictive accuracy using area under the curve values and constructed calibration plots to grasp the tendency for each institution. Both nomograms showed a high predictive accuracy in each institution, although the constructed calibration plots of the two nomograms underestimated the actual probability in Toho University Sakura Medical Center. Clinicians need to use calibration plots for each institution to correctly understand the tendency of each nomogram for their patients, even if each nomogram has a good predictive accuracy.
authors: Department of Urology, Toho University Sakura Medical Center, Sakura-shi takanobu.utsumi@med.toho-u.ac.jp.
authors: Takanobu
authors: T
authors: Utsumi
authors: Department of Urology, Toho University Sakura Medical Center, Sakura-shi.
authors: Ryo
authors: R
authors: Oka
authors: Department of Urology, Toho University Sakura Medical Center, Sakura-shi.
authors: Takumi
authors: T
authors: Endo
authors: Department of Urology, Toho University Sakura Medical Center, Sakura-shi.
authors: Masashi
authors: M
authors: Yano
authors: Department of Urology, Toho University Sakura Medical Center, Sakura-shi.
authors: Shuichi
authors: S
authors: Kamijima
authors: Department of Urology, Toho University Sakura Medical Center, Sakura-shi.
authors: Naoto
authors: N
authors: Kamiya
authors: Department of Urology, Chibaken Saiseikai Narashino Hospital, Narashino-shi.
authors: Masaaki
authors: M
authors: Fujimura
authors: Department of Urology, Chibaken Saiseikai Narashino Hospital, Narashino-shi.
authors: Nobuyuki
authors: N
authors: Sekita
authors: Department of Urology, Chibaken Saiseikai Narashino Hospital, Narashino-shi.
authors: Kazuo
authors: K
authors: Mikami
authors: Department of Pathology, Toho University Sakura Medical Center, Sakura-shi, Japan.
authors: Nobuyuki
authors: N
authors: Hiruta
authors: Department of Urology, Toho University Sakura Medical Center, Sakura-shi.
authors: Hiroyoshi
authors: H
authors: Suzuki
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor / Q000097:blood; D001706:Biopsy; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D060787:Neoplasm Grading; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D049451:Nomograms; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood; D011468:Prostatectomy; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000097:blood / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies
chemical_list: D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen
keywords: Gleason sum; biopsy; nomogram; prostate cancer; radical prostatectomy