title: How to improve the equity of health financial sources? - Simulation and analysis of total health expenditure of one Chinese province on system dynamics.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  We simulate and analyze Total Health Expenditure (THE) in financial sources and other economic indicators (such as THE per capita, GDP, etc.) in a province of China from 2002 to 2012 on System Dynamics.
  
  
  METHODS
  Based on actual data and certain mathematical methods, we use system dynamic software to construct a logic model for THE and changing proportions, and thus simulate the actual conditions of development and changes in THE.
  
  
  RESULTS
  According to the simulation results, the government possess the largest investment in the average annual growth rate of THE, which was 25.16% in 2012. Social investment comprises the majority of the possession ratio, which was up to 41.20%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The personal investment growth rate decreased by almost 21%, but the total amount of personal investment increased by 28075 million yuan, which is far higher than the increase in government investment. Individuals are still the main carriers of health care expenses. The equity of health financial sources is still poor. The System Dynamics method used in this paper identifies a dynamic measurement process, provides a scientific basis for simulation and analysis of the changes in THE and its key constraining factors, as well as put forward suggestions for the improvement of equity of health financial sources.
authors: Department of the Health Service Management, China Medical University, Executive director of China Health Economic Association, Director of China Soft Science Association. Major Research on: health economic and policy, No.77 Puhe Road, Shenyang North New Area, Shenyang, Liaoning Province, 110122, China (PRC). wxinsmile@qq.com.
authors: Xin
authors: X
authors: Wang
authors: China Medical University, No.77 Puhe Road, Shenyang North New Area, Shenyang, Liaoning Province, 110122, China (PRC). zhiwei1965@sina.com.
authors: Yuanling
authors: Y
authors: Sun
authors: Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, China Medical University, No.77 Puhe Road, Shenyang North New Area, Shenyang, Liaoning Province, 110122, China (PRC). 261128401@qq.com.
authors: Xin
authors: X
authors: Mu
authors: Shenyang Medical College, No.146 Huanghe bei Road, Huanggu District, Shenyang city, Liaoning Province, 110032, China (PRC). 896699585@qq.com.
authors: Li
authors: L
authors: Guan
authors: Department of the Health Service Management, China Medical University, No.77 Puhe Road, Shenyang North New Area, Shenyang, Liaoning Province, 110122, China (PRC). 419566460@qq.com.
authors: Jingjie
authors: J
authors: Li
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D003695:Delivery of Health Care / Q000191:economics*; D005380:Financing, Government / Q000191:economics; D005382:Financing, Personal / Q000191:economics; D059066:Gross Domestic Product; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012984:Software