title: Transformation of potential medical demand in China: A system dynamics simulation model.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The increasing of potential medical demand in China has threatened the health of the population, the medical equity, accessibility to medical services, and has impeded the development of Chinese health delivery system. This study aims to understand the mechanism of the increasing potential medical demand and find some solutions.
  
  
  METHODS
  We constructed a system dynamics model to analyze and simulate this problem, to predict the influences of health policies on the actual percentage of patients not seeking medical care (adjusting the quantity structure of hospitals and community health systems (CHSs), adjusting outpatient prices, and adjusting the level of health insurance).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Decreasing the number of hospitals, increasing the number of CHSs, and raising the proportion of health insurance compensation would effectively increase the transformation of potential medical demand. But currently, changes of the outpatient prices didn't play a role in the transformation of potential medical demand.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Combined with validation analysis and model simulation, we suggest some possible solutions. The main factors causing potential medical demand are accessibility to medical services and proportion of health insurance compensation. Thus, adjusting the number of hospitals and CHSs and increasing the proportion of health insurance compensation should decrease the actual percentage of patients not seeking medical care and accelerate the transformation of potential medical demand, which deserved being concerned in policymaking.
authors: Institute of Military Health Management, CPLA, Faculty of Health Service, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China.
authors: Wenya
authors: W
authors: Yu
authors: Institute of Military Health Management, CPLA, Faculty of Health Service, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China.
authors: Meina
authors: M
authors: Li
authors: Institute of Military Health Management, CPLA, Faculty of Health Service, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China.
authors: Yang
authors: Y
authors: Ge
authors: Institute of Military Health Management, CPLA, Faculty of Health Service, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China.
authors: Ling
authors: L
authors: Li
authors: Institute of Military Health Management, CPLA, Faculty of Health Service, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China.
authors: Yi
authors: Y
authors: Zhang
authors: Institute of Military Health Management, CPLA, Faculty of Health Service, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China.
authors: Yuan
authors: Y
authors: Liu
authors: Institute of Military Health Management, CPLA, Faculty of Health Service, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China. Electronic address: zllrmit@163.com.
authors: Lulu
authors: L
authors: Zhang
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D006291:Health Policy; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006761:Hospitals; D006801:Humans; D007348:Insurance, Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008962:Models, Theoretical
keywords: Health policy; Potential medical demand; System dynamics model