title: Relationship between 28-year food consumption trends and the 10-year global risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the adult Warsaw population.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Diet plays an important role in the aetiology of cardiovascular (CV) disease. SCORE risk charts are popular and simple tools for the assessment of the global risk of CV death.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate food consumption trends in the adult Warsaw population in 1984-2012 and to establish their relationship to the 10-year global risk of death due to CV diseases.
  
  
  METHODS
  Nutrient intake and CV risk factors were assessed in independent representative samples of the Warsaw population in the Pol-MONICA projects (in 1984, 1988, 1993, and 2001) and the WAW-KARD project (in 2012). Overall, these surveys included 3404 men and 3446 women aged 35-64 years. The global CV risk was calculated using the SCORE risk chart for high-risk European regions. On the basis of the collected data, trends of dietary intakes and the SCORE risk values in the years 1984-2012 were estimated by linear and nonlinear regressions and correlations.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Over the period of 28 years (1984-2012), a significant decrease in the SCORE risk (by 20% in men and by 35% in women) was seen, accompanied by significant changes in the dietary habits of the Warsaw population. Declining trends (an exponential model) were noted for total energy, total fat, cholesterol, and added animal fat intake. Intake of saturated fatty acids decreased until 2001 and increased thereafter (a second degree polynomial regression model). These changes in the dietary habits of the Warsaw population correlated with the SCORE risk values. Significant correlations were noted for total energy, total fat, and dietary cholesterol intake in both sexes, and animal fat and saturated fatty acid intake in men, with the correlation coefficients ranging from 0.85 to 0.98.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A significant reduction in the SCORE risk was seen in the Warsaw population in 1984-2012, which was associated with positive dietary changes. However, an unexpected decrease and reversal of the favourable trends in the structure of fat consumption occurred in the last decade.
authors: Department of Epidemiology, Cardiovascular Disease Prevention, and Health Promotion, National Institute of Cardiology, Warsaw, Poland. awaskiewicz@ikard.pl.
authors: Anna
authors: A
authors: Waśkiewicz
authors: Walerian
authors: W
authors: Piotrowski
authors: Dorota
authors: D
authors: Szostak-Węgierek
authors: Alicja
authors: A
authors: Cicha-Mikołajczyk
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D004032:Diet / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000639:trends; D004041:Dietary Fats; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011044:Poland / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D004041:Dietary Fats