The Perfect Burrow, but for What? Identifying Local Habitat Conditions Promoting the Presence of the Host and Vector Species in the Kazakh Plague System.
BACKGROUND
The wildlife plague system in the Pre-Balkhash desert of Kazakhstan has been a subject of study for many years. Much progress has been made in generating a method of predicting outbreaks of the disease (infection by the gram negative bacterium Yersinia pestis) but existing methods are not yet accurate enough to inform public health planning. The present study aimed to identify characteristics of individual mammalian host (Rhombomys opimus) burrows related to and potentially predictive of the presence of R.opimus and the dominant flea vectors (Xenopsylla spp.).


METHODS
Over four seasons, burrow characteristics, their current occupancy status, and flea and tick burden of the occupants were recorded in the field. A second data set was generated of long term occupancy trends by recording the occupancy status of specific burrows over multiple occasions. Generalised linear mixed models were constructed to identify potential burrow properties predictive of either occupancy or flea burden.


RESULTS
At the burrow level, it was identified that a burrow being occupied by Rhombomys, and remaining occupied, were both related to the characteristics of the sediment in which the burrow was constructed. The flea burden of Rhombomys in a burrow was found to be related to the tick burden. Further larger scale properties were also identified as being related to both Rhombomys and flea presence, including latitudinal position and the season.


CONCLUSIONS
Therefore, in advancing our current predictions of plague in Kazakhstan, we must consider the landscape at this local level to increase our accuracy in predicting the dynamics of gerbil and flea populations. Furthermore this demonstrates that in other zoonotic systems, it may be useful to consider the distribution and location of suitable habitat for both host and vector species at this fine scale to accurately predict future epizootics.
Ecology, Evolution and Genomics of Infectious Disease Research Group, Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Bethany
B
Levick
Ecology, Evolution and Genomics of Infectious Disease Research Group, Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Anne
A
Laudisoit
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Liesbeth
L
Wilschut
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Elisabeth
E
Addink
M.Akimbayev's Kazakh Science Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Vladimir
V
Ageyev
M.Akimbayev's Kazakh Science Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Aidyn
A
Yeszhanov
M.Akimbayev's Kazakh Science Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Valerij
V
Sapozhnikov
M.Akimbayev's Kazakh Science Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan; Taldykorgan anti-plague station, Taldykorgan, Kazakhstan.
Alexander
A
Belayev
Taldykorgan anti-plague station, Taldykorgan, Kazakhstan.
Tania
T
Davydova
Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Sally
S
Eagle
Ecology, Evolution and Genomics of Infectious Disease Research Group, Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Mike
M
Begon
D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild / Q000382:microbiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000382:microbiology*; D004199:Disease Vectors; D017753:Ecosystem; D007623:Kazakhstan; D010930:Plague / Q000382:microbiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D011156:Population Density; D012376:Rodent Diseases / Q000382:microbiology / Q000635:transmission; D012621:Seasons; D005423:Siphonaptera / Q000382:microbiology; D058260:Xenopsylla / Q000382:microbiology; D015010:Yersinia pestis / Q000472:pathogenicity