Cannabis use and other predictors of the onset of daily cigarette use in young men: what matters most? Results from a longitudinal study.
BACKGROUND
According to the gateway hypothesis, tobacco use is a gateway of cannabis use. However, there is increasing evidence that cannabis use also predicts the progression of tobacco use (reverse gateway hypothesis). Unfortunately, the importance of cannabis use compared to other predictors of tobacco use is less clear. The aim of this study was to examine which variables, in addition to cannabis use, best predict the onset of daily cigarette smoking in young men.


METHODS
A total of 5,590 young Swiss men (mean age = 19.4 years, SD = 1.2) provided data on their substance use, socio-demographic background, religion, health, social context, and personality at baseline and after 18 months. We modelled the predictors of progression to daily cigarette smoking using logistic regression analyses (n = 4,230).


RESULTS
In the multivariate overall model, use of cannabis remained among the strongest predictors for the onset of daily cigarette use. Daily cigarette use was also predicted by a lifetime use of at least 50 cigarettes, occasional cigarette use, educational level, religious affiliation, parental situation, peers with psychiatric problems, and sociability.


CONCLUSIONS
Our results highlight the relevance of cannabis use compared to other potential predictors of the progression of tobacco use and thereby support the reverse gateway hypothesis.
Swiss Research Institute for Public Health and Addiction ISGF, University of Zurich, Konradstrasse 32, CH-8031, Zurich, Switzerland. julia.becker@isgf.uzh.ch.
Julia
J
Becker
Swiss Research Institute for Public Health and Addiction ISGF, University of Zurich, Konradstrasse 32, CH-8031, Zurich, Switzerland. michael.schaub@isgf.uzh.ch.
Michael P
MP
Schaub
Alcohol Treatment Centre, Lausanne University Hospital CHUV, Rue du Bugnon 21, CH-1011, Lausanne, Switzerland. gerhard.gmel@chuv.ch.|Addiction Switzerland, Av. Louis-Ruchonnet 14, CH-1003, Lausanne, Switzerland. gerhard.gmel@chuv.ch.|Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. gerhard.gmel@chuv.ch.|University of the West of England, Bristol, UK. gerhard.gmel@chuv.ch.
Gerhard
G
Gmel
Swiss Research Institute for Public Health and Addiction ISGF, University of Zurich, Konradstrasse 32, CH-8031, Zurich, Switzerland. severin.haug@isgf.uzh.ch.
Severin
S
Haug
D000328:Adult; D017668:Age of Onset; D016739:Behavior, Addictive / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D002188:Cannabis; D015331:Cohort Studies; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D002189:Marijuana Abuse / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D008385:Marijuana Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D010379:Peer Group; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology; D014029:Tobacco Use Disorder / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult