Tularemia Outbreaks and Common Vole (Microtus arvalis) Irruptive Population Dynamics in Northwestern Spain, 1997-2014.
During the last decades, large tularemia outbreaks in humans have coincided in time and space with population outbreaks of common voles in northwestern Spain, leading us to hypothesize that this rodent species acts as a key spillover agent of Francisella tularensis in the region. Here, we evaluate for the first time a potential link between irruptive vole numbers and human tularemia outbreaks in Spain. We compiled vole abundance estimates obtained through live-trapping monitoring studies and official reports of human tularemia cases during the period 1997-2014. We confirm a significant positive association between yearly cases of tularemia infection in humans and vole abundance. High vole densities during outbreaks (up to 1000 voles/hectare) may therefore enhance disease transmission and spillover contamination in the environment. If this ecological link is further confirmed, the apparent multiannual cyclicity of common vole outbreaks might provide a basis for forecasting the risk of tularemia outbreaks in northwestern Spain.
1 Departamento de Ciencias Agroforestales, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenierías Agrarias, Universidad de Valladolid , Palencia, Spain .|2 Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Gestión Forestal Sostenible , Palencia, Spain .
Juan José
JJ
Luque-Larena
3 Estación Experimental de Zonas Áridas (EEZA, CSIC), Almería, and Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC, CSIC-UCLM-JCCM) , Ciudad Real, Spain .
François
F
Mougeot
4 Área de Microbiología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha , Ciudad Real, Spain .
Dolors Vidal
DV
Roig
5 School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen , Aberdeen, United Kingdom .
Xavier
X
Lambin
1 Departamento de Ciencias Agroforestales, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenierías Agrarias, Universidad de Valladolid , Palencia, Spain .|2 Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Gestión Forestal Sostenible , Palencia, Spain .
Ruth
R
Rodríguez-Pastor
6 Centro Nacional de Epidemiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos III , and CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain .
Elena
E
Rodríguez-Valín
7 Centro Nacional de Microbiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos III , Madrid, Spain .
Pedro
P
Anda
7 Centro Nacional de Microbiología, Instituto de Salud Carlos III , Madrid, Spain .
Raquel
R
Escudero
D000818:Animals; D003411:Arvicolinae / Q000382:microbiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005604:Francisella tularensis / Q000254:growth & development / Q000276:immunology / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D006801:Humans; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012377:Rodentia; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D014406:Tularemia / Q000453:epidemiology*
Common vole; Francisella tularensis; Microtus arvalis; Outbreaks; Spain; Tularemia