Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model.
Forecasting the outcomes of national elections has become established practice in several democracies. In the present paper, we develop an economic voting model for forecasting the future success of the Austrian 'grand coalition', i.e., the joint electoral success of the two mainstream parties SPOE and OEVP, at the 2013 Austrian Parliamentary Elections. Our main argument is that the success of both parties is strongly tied to the accomplishments of the Austrian system of corporatism, that is, the Social Partnership (Sozialpartnerschaft), in providing economic prosperity. Using data from Austrian national elections between 1953 and 2008 ([Formula: see text]), we rely on the following predictors in our forecasting model: (1) unemployment rates, (2) previous incumbency of the two parties, and (3) dealignment over time. We conclude that, in general, the two mainstream parties benefit considerably from low unemployment rates, and are weakened whenever they have previously formed a coalition government. Further, we show that they have gradually been losing a good share of their voter basis over recent decades.
University of Vienna, Department of Methods in the Social Sciences, Rathausstraße 19, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
Julian
J
Aichholzer
SUNY at Stony Brook, Department of Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences Building, 7th Floor, Stony Brook NY 11794-4392, United States.
Johanna
J
Willmann
Austria; Economic voting; Election forecasting; Multi-party system; Social Partnership