Scenario planning: The future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease.
In this paper, we present a description of foresighting activities undertaken by EPIC, Scotland's Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, to investigate the future uncertainty of animal health security in the Scottish sheep and cattle sectors. Using scenario planning methodologies, we explored four plausible but provocative long-term futures which identify dynamics underpinning the resilience of these agricultural sectors to animal disease. These scenarios highlight a number of important drivers that influence disease resilience: industry demographics, the role of government support and regulation and the capacity for technological innovation to support the industry to meet local and global market demand. Participants in the scenario planning exercises proposed creative, robust strategies that policy makers could consider implementing now to enhance disease control and industry resilience in multiple, uncertain futures. Using these participant-led strategies as a starting point, we offer ten key questions for policy makers and stakeholders to provoke further discussion about improving resiliency and disease preparedness. We conclude with a brief discussion of the value of scenario planning, not only for the development of futures which will inform disease contingency plans and improve industry resilience, but as a mechanism for dialogue and information sharing between stakeholders and government.
School of Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, 464 Bearsden Road, Glasgow, G61 1QH, UK. Electronic address: Lisa.Boden@glasgow.ac.uk.
Lisa A
LA
Boden
Epidemiology Research Unit, SRUC (Scotland's Rural College), Drummondhill, Stratherrick Road, Inverness, IV2 4JZ, UK.
Harriet
H
Auty
The Roslin Institute and R(D)SVS, University of Edinburgh, The Roslin Building, Easter Bush, Midlothian, Edinburgh, EH259RG, Scotland, UK.
Paul
P
Bessell
Social, Economic and Geographical Sciences Group, The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, Scotland, UK.
Dominic
D
Duckett
Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, JCMB, The King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FD,Scotland, UK.
Jiayi
J
Liu
Social, Economic and Geographical Sciences Group, The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, Scotland, UK.
Carol
C
Kyle
Social, Economic and Geographical Sciences Group, The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, Scotland, UK.
Annie
A
McKee
Social, Economic and Geographical Sciences Group, The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, Scotland, UK.
Lee-Ann
LA
Sutherland
SAMI Consulting Ltd, The Rectory, 1 Toomers' Wharf, Canal Walk, Newbury, RG14 1DY, UK(1).
John
J
Reynolds
The Roslin Institute and R(D)SVS, University of Edinburgh, The Roslin Building, Easter Bush, Midlothian, Edinburgh, EH259RG, Scotland, UK.
Barend M deC
BM
Bronsvoort
Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, JCMB, The King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FD,Scotland, UK.
Iain J
IJ
McKendrick
D000822:Animal Husbandry / Q000639:trends*; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005544:Forecasting; D012606:Scotland; D012756:Sheep; D012757:Sheep Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control*; D035501:Uncertainty
Animal disease; Animal health; Contingency planning; Futures; Livestock; Resiliency; Scenarios