Postoperative nomogram for predicting disease-specific death and recurrence in papillary thyroid carcinoma.
A nomogram could provide individualized prognostic for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). The purpose of our study was to develop and validate a new nomogram.



Consecutive patients with PTC from 2 different institutions were analyzed and divided into the development (n = 849) and validation (n = 275) sets. The former was used for formulating a nomogram in predicting disease-specific death and recurrence, whereas the latter was for validation (by area under the curve [AUC]).



The nomogram had excellent discrimination in predicting 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence (0.984; 0.969-0.998; and 0.743; 0.658-0.828; respectively). A score <30 meant 100% of the patients survived at 10 years and those who died within 10 years had a score ≥30. A score <17 meant almost all the patients (91.04%) were disease-free within 10 years.



Using a competing-risk model, a nomogram was created with excellent discriminatory ability and accuracy in predicting 10-year disease-specific death and recurrence for PTC. Our results implied its potential for wider use in other populations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 38: E1256-E1263, 2016.
Department of Surgery, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Brian H H
BH
Lang
Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care, University of Hong Kong, 3/F Ap Lei Chau Clinic, Hong Kong, China.
Carlos K H
0000-0002-6895-6071
CK
Wong
Department of Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine and Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
Hyeong Won
HW
Yu
Department of Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine and Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
Kyu Eun
KE
Lee
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002291:Carcinoma, Papillary / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000175:diagnosis*; D049451:Nomograms; D000077273:Thyroid Cancer, Papillary; D013964:Thyroid Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology
cancer death; disease-specific death; nomogram; predicting recurrence; thyroid carcinoma; thyroidectomy