Choice of estimand and analysis methods in diabetes trials with rescue medication.
The analysis of clinical trials aiming to show symptomatic benefits is often complicated by the ethical requirement for rescue medication when the disease state of patients worsens. In type 2 diabetes trials, patients receive glucose-lowering rescue medications continuously for the remaining trial duration, if one of several markers of glycemic control exceeds pre-specified thresholds. This may mask differences in glycemic values between treatment groups, because it will occur more frequently in less effective treatment groups. Traditionally, the last pre-rescue medication value was carried forward and analyzed as the end-of-trial value. The deficits of such simplistic single imputation approaches are increasingly recognized by regulatory authorities and trialists. We discuss alternative approaches and evaluate them through a simulation study. When the estimand of interest is the effect attributable to the treatments initially assigned at randomization, then our recommendation for estimation and hypothesis testing is to treat data after meeting rescue criteria as deterministically 'missing' at random, because initiation of rescue medication is determined by observed in-trial values. An appropriate imputation of values after meeting rescue criteria is then possible either directly through multiple imputation or implicitly with a repeated measures model. Crucially, one needs to jointly impute or model all markers of glycemic control that can lead to the initiation of rescue medication. An alternative for hypothesis testing only are rank tests with outcomes from patients 'requiring rescue medication' ranked worst, and non-rescued patients ranked according to final visit values. However, an appropriate ranking of not observed values may be controversial.
Novartis Pharma AG, Biostatistical Sciences and Pharmacometrics, Basel, Switzerland.
Björn
B
Holzhauer
Novartis Pharma AG, Statistical Methodology and Consulting, Basel, Switzerland.
Mouna
M
Akacha
Novartis Pharma AG, Biostatistical Sciences and Pharmacometrics, Basel, Switzerland.
Georgina
G
Bermann
D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000187:drug effects; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000188:drug therapy*; D006801:Humans; D007004:Hypoglycemic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic / Q000941:ethics / Q000379:methods*
D001786:Blood Glucose; D007004:Hypoglycemic Agents
analyzing HbA1c; deterministic missing at random; estimand; multiple imputation; rescue medication