Mammalian cycles: internally defined periods and interaction-driven amplitudes.
The cause of mammalian cycles-the rise and fall of populations over a predictable period of time-has remained controversial since these patterns were first observed over a century ago. In spite of extensive work on observable mammalian cycles, the field has remained divided upon what the true cause is, with a majority of opinions attributing it to either predation or to intra-species mechanisms. Here we unite the eigenperiod hypothesis, which describes an internal, maternal effect-based mechanism to explain the cycles' periods with a recent generalization explaining the amplitude of snowshoe hare cycles in northwestern North America based on initial predator abundance. By explaining the period and the amplitude of the cycle with separate mechanisms, a unified and consistent view of the causation of cycles is reached. Based on our suggested theory, we forecast the next snowshoe hare cycle (predicted peak in 2016) to be of extraordinarily low amplitude.
Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University , Stony Brook, NY , USA.
L R
LR
Ginzburg
Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia , Vancouver, BC , Canada.
C J
CJ
Krebs
Amplitude and period; Eigenperiod hypothesis; Lynx-hare cycle; Maternal effect; Population cycles; Population dynamics