What can ecosystem models tell us about the risk of eutrophication in the North Sea?
Eutrophication is a process resulting from an increase in anthropogenic nutrient inputs from rivers and other sources, the consequences of which can include enhanced algal biomass, changes in plankton community composition and oxygen depletion near the seabed. Within the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, indicators (and associated threshold) have been identified to assess the eutrophication status of an ecosystem. Large databases of observations (in situ) are required to properly assess the eutrophication status. Marine hydrodynamic/ecosystem models provide continuous fields of a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Using such models in this context could help to overcome the lack ofin situdata, and provide a powerful tool for ecosystem-based management and policy makers. Here we demonstrate a methodology that uses a combination of model outputs andin situdata to assess the risk of eutrophication in the coastal domain of the North Sea. The risk of eutrophication is computed for the past and present time as well as for different future scenarios. This allows us to assess both the current risk and its sensitivity to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Model sensitivity studies suggest that the coastal waters of the North Sea may be more sensitive to anthropogenic rivers loads than climate change in the near future (to 2040).
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, PL1 3DH Plymouth, UK.
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Saux Picart
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, PL1 3DH Plymouth, UK.
J I
JI
Allen
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, PL1 3DH Plymouth, UK.
M
M
Butenschön
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, PL1 3DH Plymouth, UK.
Y
Y
Artioli
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, PL1 3DH Plymouth, UK.
L
L
de Mora
National Oceanography Centre, 6 Brownlow Street, L3 5DA Liverpool, UK.
S
S
Wakelin
National Oceanography Centre, 6 Brownlow Street, L3 5DA Liverpool, UK.
J
J
Holt