Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia.
Ebola virus disease (EVD) has erupted many times in some zones since it was first found in 1976. The 2014 EVD outbreak in West Africa is the largest ever, which has caused a large number of deaths and the most serious country is Liberia during the outbreak period. Based on the data released by World Health Organization and the actual transmission situations, we investigate the impact of different transmission routes on the EVD outbreak in Liberia and estimate the basic reproduction number R0 = 2.012 in the absence of effective control measures. Through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, we reveal that the transmission coefficients of suspected and probable cases have stronger correlations on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, we study the influence of control measures (isolation and safe burial measures) on EVD outbreak. It is found that if combined control measures are taken, the basic reproduction number will be less than one and thus EVD in Liberia may be well contained. The obtained results may provide new guidance to prevent and control the spread of disease.
Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, P. R. China.|Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, P. R. China.
Zhi-Qiang
ZQ
Xia
Department of Children's Medical Laboratory Diagnosis Center, Qilu Children's Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan 250022, P. R. China.
Shi-Fu
SF
Wang
Institute of Disease Control and Prevention, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing, 100071, P. R. China.
Shen-Long
SL
Li
Institute of Disease Control and Prevention, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing, 100071, P. R. China.
Liu-Yu
LY
Huang
Institute of Disease Control and Prevention, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing, 100071, P. R. China.
Wen-Yi
WY
Zhang
Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, P. R. China.
Gui-Quan
GQ
Sun
Department of Pediatrics, Qilu Children's Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan 250022, P. R. China.
Zhong-Tao
ZT
Gai
Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, P. R. China.
Zhen
Z
Jin
D000465:Algorithms; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D029043:Ebolavirus; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D007988:Liberia / Q000453:epidemiology; D008962:Models, Theoretical