title: Estimating the Upper Limit of Lifetime Probability Distribution, Based on Data of Japanese Centenarians.
abstract: In modern biology, theories of aging fall mainly into two groups: damage theories and programed theories. If programed theories are true, the probability that human beings live beyond a specific age will be zero. In contrast, if damage theories are true, such an age does not exist, and a longevity record will be eventually destroyed. In this article, for examining real state, a special type of binomial model based on the generalized Pareto distribution has been applied to data of Japanese centenarians. From the results, it is concluded that the upper limit of lifetime probability distribution in the Japanese population has been estimated 123 years.
authors.affiliation: Department of Information Expression, Shobi University, Kawagoe, Japan. nob-hanayama@jcom.home.ne.jp.
authors.forename: Nobutane
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Hanayama
authors.affiliation: Professor Emeritus, Keio University, Yokohama, Japan.
authors.forename: Masaaki
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sibuya
mesh_terms: D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging; D016208:Databases, Factual; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D008136:Longevity; D008432:Mathematical Computing; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011336:Probability
keywords: Biostatistics; Centenarians; Data analysis; Longevity; Population distribution