title: Using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to Predict the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Zibo, China, 2004-2014.
abstract: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China, where human cases account for 90% of the total global cases. Zibo City is one of the most seriously affected areas in Shandong Province, China. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting HFRS incidence in Zibo to make the control of HFRS more effective. In this study, we constructed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for monthly HFRS incidence in Zibo from 2004 to 2013. The ARIMA (3,1,1) × (2,1,1)12 model is reliable with a high validity, which can be used to predict the next year's HFRS incidence in Zibo. The forecast results suggest that the HFRS incidence in Zibo will experience a slight growth in the next year.
authors.affiliation: Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Tao
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Yunping
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.forename: Ling
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Zhenshui
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.forename: Feng
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Cui
authors.forename: Shenyong
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zhai
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D019353:Endemic Diseases / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D005544:Forecasting; D006476:Orthohantavirus / Q000472:pathogenicity / Q000502:physiology; D006480:Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007668:Kidney / Q000473:pathology / Q000821:virology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012621:Seasons; D014505:Urban Population