title: Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration.
abstract: We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations' World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354322, 98195-4322, Seattle, WA, USA. jonazose@u.washington.edu.
authors.forename: Jonathan J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Azose
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354322, 98195-4322, Seattle, WA, USA. raftery@u.washington.edu.
authors.forename: Adrian E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Raftery
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004641:Emigration and Immigration / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D008390:Markov Chains; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011157:Population Dynamics; D017678:Sex Distribution; D013997:Time Factors; D014480:United Nations
keywords: Autoregressive model; Bayesian hierarchical model; Markov chain Monte Carlo; World population prospects