title: Environmental risk assessment of acid rock drainage under uncertainty: The probability bounds and PHREEQC approach.
abstract: Acid rock drainage (ARD) is a major environmental problem that poses significant environmental risks during and after mining activities. A new methodology for environmental risk assessment based on probability bounds and a geochemical speciation model (PHREEQC) is presented. The methodology provides conservative and non-conservative ways of estimating risk of heavy metals posed to selected endpoints probabilistically, while propagating data and parameter uncertainties throughout the risk assessment steps. The methodology is demonstrated at a minesite located in British Columbia, Canada. The result of the methodology for the case study minesite shows the fate-and-transport of heavy metals is well simulated in the mine environment. In addition, the results of risk characterization for the case study show that there is risk due to transport of heavy metals into the environment.
authors.affiliation: School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC, Canada. Electronic address: getnet.betrie@alumni.ubc.ca.
authors.forename: Getnet D
authors.initials: GD
authors.lastname: Betrie
authors.affiliation: School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC, Canada.
authors.forename: Rehan
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Sadiq
authors.affiliation: Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC, Canada.
authors.forename: Craig
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Nichol
authors.affiliation: Minesite Drainage Assessment Group, Surrey, BC, Canada.
authors.forename: Kevin A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Morin
authors.affiliation: School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC, Canada.
authors.forename: Solomon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tesfamariam
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001955:British Columbia; D007220:Industrial Waste; D060106:Lakes; D019216:Metals, Heavy / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*; D008906:Mining; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D017683:Oncorhynchus; D010473:Perciformes; D011336:Probability; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D035501:Uncertainty; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*
chemical_list: D007220:Industrial Waste; D019216:Metals, Heavy; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical
keywords: Fate-and-transport modeling; PHREEQC; Probability bounds; Risk assessment; Uncertainty analysis