title: Random phylogenies and the distribution of branching times.
abstract: Phylogenetic trees reconstructed without fossils have become an important source of information to study evolutionary processes. A widely used method to describe patterns of phylogenetic diversification is known as the lineages-through-time (LTT) plot. Recently, it has been shown that it is possible to predict the distribution of the branching times of a phylogeny, thus making possible to derive a theoretical LTT curve conditioned on diversification parameters. Here, I review some aspects related to this prediction showing how to derive it for any time-dependent model of diversification, as well as calculating a prediction interval around a theoretical LTT curve. The accuracy of the prediction interval was assessed with simulations using fixed or random tree sizes under constant-rate models as well as two models of time-dependent diversification. The prediction intervals were relatively narrower and more accurate for larger trees. The features of this approach are discussed as well as its potential applications.
authors.affiliation: Institut des Sciences de l׳Évolution, Université Montpellier - CNRS - IRD - EPHE, CC 064, Place Eugène Bataillon, F-34095 Montpellier cédex 05, France. Electronic address: Emmanuel.Paradis@ird.fr.
authors.forename: Emmanuel
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Paradis
mesh_terms: D053476:Extinction, Biological; D049810:Genetic Speciation; D008954:Models, Biological; D010802:Phylogeny; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Diversity; Extinction; LTT plot; Speciation