title: Effect of ivabradine on numbers needed to treat for the prevention of recurrent hospitalizations in heart failure patients.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Ivabradine, a specific heart rate lowering agent, was shown in the SHIFT study to reduce time to first hospitalization for worsening heart failure (HF) in chronic systolic HF patients and also to reduce recurrent/total hospitalizations over the study interval. We assessed the effects of adding ivabradine in patients with systolic HF on the number needed to treat (NNT) to reduce recurrent hospitalizations.
  
  
  METHODS
  The SHIFT trial included 6505 patients with symptomatic HF (NYHA II-IV), left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% and heart rate ≥70 bpm in sinus rhythm. Patients were randomized to either ivabradine or placebo in addition to guidelines-based drug therapy. The times to first hospitalization were analyzed using a univariate Cox proportional-hazards model; the associated NNT was calculated using Kaplan-Meier estimates of the time-to-event curves at 1 year in each treatment arm. Recurrent hospitalizations were analyzed using a negative binomial and the estimated annual event rates used to calculate the associated patient-time NNTs respectively.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The estimated NNT (number needed to initiate treatment with ivabradine to prevent one first HF hospitalization within 1 year) was 27 (estimated hazard ratio: 0.75, P < 0.0001). For recurrent HF hospitalizations, one event would be prevented on average per 14 patient-years for any year of follow-up over the course of SHIFT (estimated rate ratio: 0.71, P < 0.0001). A key limitation of this analysis is that it did not account for a relationship between recurrent HF hospitalizations and subsequent mortality.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In chronic systolic HF the effect of ivabradine on reducing recurrent HF hospitalizations results in a lower NNT compared to the effect on the time for first hospitalization. The effect of ivabradine on recurrent hospitalizations, in addition to first events, may be a more appropriate measure when considering the impact of a treatment with ivabradine on healthcare resource utilization.
authors.affiliation: a a Department of Medical Statistics , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , United Kingdom.|b b MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL , London , United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Jennifer K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Rogers
authors.affiliation: c c Global Health Economics, Amgen, Inc. , Thousand Oaks , CA , USA.
authors.forename: Adrian
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kielhorn
authors.affiliation: d d The Howard Gilman and Ronald and Jean Schiavone Institutes, State University of New York Downstate Medical Center , New York , USA.
authors.forename: Jeffrey S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Borer
authors.affiliation: e e Robertson Centre for Biostatistics, University of Glasgow , Glasgow , United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Ian
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Ford
authors.affiliation: a a Department of Medical Statistics , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Stuart J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Pocock
mesh_terms: D001552:Benzazepines / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D002317:Cardiovascular Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D002908:Chronic Disease; D054143:Heart Failure, Systolic / Q000188:drug therapy*; D006339:Heart Rate / Q000187:drug effects; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D000077550:Ivabradine; D061366:Numbers Needed To Treat; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D001552:Benzazepines; D002317:Cardiovascular Agents; D000077550:Ivabradine
keywords: Clinical trial; Heart failure; Hospitalization; Ivabradine; Number needed to treat; Recurrent events