title: Comparison of radiographic joint space width and magnetic resonance imaging for prediction of knee replacement: A longitudinal case-control study from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate whether change in fixed-location measures of radiographic joint space width (JSW) and cartilage thickness by MRI predict knee replacement.
  
  
  METHODS
  Knees replaced between 36 and 60 months' follow-up in the Osteoarthritis Initiative were each matched with one control by age, sex and radiographic status. Radiographic JSW was determined from fixed flexion radiographs and subregional femorotibial cartilage thickness from 3 T MRI. Changes between the annual visit before replacement (T0) and 2 years before T0 (T-2) were compared using conditional logistic regression.
  
  
  RESULTS
  One hundred and nineteen knees from 102 participants (55.5 % women; age 64.2 ± 8.7 [mean ± SD] years) were studied. Fixed-location JSW change at 22.5 % from medial to lateral differed more between replaced and control knees (case-control [cc] OR = 1.57; 95 % CI: 1.23-2.01) than minimum medial JSW change (ccOR = 1.38; 95 % CI: 1.11-1.71). Medial femorotibial cartilage loss displayed discrimination similar to minimum JSW, and central tibial cartilage loss similar to fixed-location JSW. Location-independent thinning and thickening scores were elevated prior to knee replacement.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Discrimination of structural progression between knee pre-placement cases versus controls was stronger for fixed-location than minimum radiographic JSW. MRI displayed similar discrimination to radiography and suggested greater simultaneous cartilage thickening and loss prior to knee replacement.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  • Fixed-location JSW predicts surgical knee replacement more strongly than minimum JSW. • MRI predicts knee replacement with similar accuracy to radiographic JSW. • MRI reveals greater cartilage thinning and thickening prior to knee replacement.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Anatomy, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg & Nuremberg Austria & Chondrometrics GmbH, Ainring, Germany. felix.eckstein@pmu.ac.at.
authors.forename: Felix
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Eckstein
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Boudreau
authors.affiliation: Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, University of Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh VAHS, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
authors.forename: Zhijie
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Division of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, University of Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh VAHS, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
authors.forename: Michael J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Hannon
authors.affiliation: Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Jeff
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Duryea
authors.affiliation: Institute of Anatomy, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg & Nuremberg Austria & Chondrometrics GmbH, Ainring, Germany.
authors.forename: Wolfgang
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Wirth
authors.affiliation: Institute of Anatomy, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg & Nuremberg Austria & Chondrometrics GmbH, Ainring, Germany.
authors.forename: Sebastian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Cotofana
authors.affiliation: Boston University School of Medicine and Boston Imaging Core Lab (BICL), LLC, Boston, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Ali
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Guermazi
authors.affiliation: Boston University School of Medicine and Boston Imaging Core Lab (BICL), LLC, Boston, MA, USA.|Department of Radiology, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erlangen, Germany.
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Roemer
authors.affiliation: OAI Coordinating Ctr., UCSF, San Francisco, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Nevitt
authors.affiliation: Novartis Pharma AG, Basel, Swizerland.
authors.forename: Markus R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: John
authors.affiliation: Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany.
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ladel
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, USA.
authors.forename: Leena
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Sharma
authors.affiliation: Royal North Shore Hospital & Institute of Bone and Joint Research, Kolling Institute, University Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: David J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Hunter
authors.affiliation: Division of Rheumatology and the University of Arizona Arthritis Center, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
authors.forename: C Kent
authors.initials: CK
authors.lastname: Kwoh
mesh_terms: D019645:Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee; D002358:Cartilage, Articular / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging*; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007719:Knee Joint / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000601:surgery; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging / Q000379:methods*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D020370:Osteoarthritis, Knee / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000601:surgery; D011446:Prospective Studies; D016059:Range of Motion, Articular
keywords: Clinical validation; Knee osteoarthritis; Magnetic resonance imaging; Measurement performance; Radiographic joint space width (JSW)