title: Upscaling NZ-DNDC using a regression based meta-model to estimate direct N2O emissions from New Zealand grazed pastures.
abstract: The availability of detailed input data frequently limits the application of process-based models at large scale. In this study, we produced simplified meta-models of the simulated nitrous oxide (N2O) emission factors (EF) using NZ-DNDC. Monte Carlo simulations were performed and the results investigated using multiple regression analysis to produce simplified meta-models of EF. These meta-models were then used to estimate direct N2O emissions from grazed pastures in New Zealand. New Zealand EF maps were generated using the meta-models with data from national scale soil maps. Direct emissions of N2O from grazed pasture were calculated by multiplying the EF map with a nitrogen (N) input map. Three meta-models were considered. Model 1 included only the soil organic carbon in the top 30cm (SOC30), Model 2 also included a clay content factor, and Model 3 added the interaction between SOC30 and clay. The median annual national direct N2O emissions from grazed pastures estimated using each model (assuming model errors were purely random) were: 9.6GgN (Model 1), 13.6GgN (Model 2), and 11.9GgN (Model 3). These values corresponded to an average EF of 0.53%, 0.75% and 0.63% respectively, while the corresponding average EF using New Zealand national inventory values was 0.67%. If the model error can be assumed to be independent for each pixel then the 95% confidence interval for the N2O emissions was of the order of ±0.4-0.7%, which is much lower than existing methods. However, spatial correlations in the model errors could invalidate this assumption. Under the extreme assumption that the model error for each pixel was identical the 95% confidence interval was approximately ±100-200%. Therefore further work is needed to assess the degree of spatial correlation in the model errors.
authors.affiliation: Landcare Research, Palmerston North, New Zealand. Electronic address: giltrapd@landcareresearch.co.nz.
authors.forename: Donna L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Giltrap
authors.affiliation: Landcare Research, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Anne-Gaëlle E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Ausseil
keywords: Meta-model; NZ-DNDC; Nitrous oxide; Regional scale