title: Informing Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) with numerical modelling: A case-study on shellfish aquaculture in Malpeque Bay (Eastern Canada).
abstract: A moratorium on further bivalve leasing was established in 1999-2000 in Prince Edward Island (Canada). Recently, a marine spatial planning process was initiated explore potential mussel culture expansion in Malpeque Bay. This study focuses on the effects of a projected expansion scenario on productivity of existing leases and available suspended food resources. The aim is to provide a robust scientific assessment using available datasets and three modelling approaches ranging in complexity: (1) a connectivity analysis among culture areas; (2) a scenario analysis of organic seston dynamics based on a simplified biogeochemical model; and (3) a scenario analysis of phytoplankton dynamics based on an ecosystem model. These complementary approaches suggest (1) new leases can affect existing culture both through direct connectivity and through bay-scale effects driven by the overall increase in mussel biomass, and (2) a net reduction of phytoplankton within the bounds of its natural variation in the area.
authors.affiliation: Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Gulf Fisheries Centre, Science Branch, P.O. Box 5030, Moncton, NB E1C 9B6, Canada. Electronic address: ramonf@me.com.
authors.forename: Ramón
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Filgueira
authors.affiliation: Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Gulf Fisheries Centre, Science Branch, P.O. Box 5030, Moncton, NB E1C 9B6, Canada.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Guyondet
authors.affiliation: French Institute for Sea Research (IFREMER), BP70, 29280 Plouzané, France.
authors.forename: Cédric
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bacher
authors.affiliation: Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Gulf Fisheries Centre, Science Branch, P.O. Box 5030, Moncton, NB E1C 9B6, Canada.
authors.forename: Luc A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Comeau
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D017756:Aquaculture; D061006:Bays; D018533:Biomass; D049872:Bivalvia; D017753:Ecosystem; D004777:Environment; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010839:Phytoplankton; D011325:Prince Edward Island; D012758:Shellfish
keywords: Aquaculture; Carrying capacity; Ecosystem-based management; Marine spatial planning; Physical-biogeochemical model