title: New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate current and future specialist neurologist demand and supply to assist with health sector planning.
  
  
  METHODS
  Current demand for the neurology workforce in New Zealand was assessed using neuroepidemiological data. To assess current supply, all New Zealand neurology departments were surveyed to determine current workforce and estimate average neurologist productivity. Projections were made based on current neurologists anticipated retirement rates and addition of new neurologists based on current training positions. We explored several models to address the supply-demand gap.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The current supply of neurologists in New Zealand is 36 full-time equivalents (FTE), insufficient to meet current demand of 74 FTE. Demand will grow over time and if status quo is maintained the gap will widen.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Pressures on healthcare dollars are ever increasing and we cannot expect to address the identified service gap by immediately doubling the number of neurologists. Instead we propose a 12-year strategic approach with investments to enhance service productivity, strengthen collaborative efforts between specialists and general service providers, moderately increase the number of neurologists and neurology training positions, and develop highly skilled non-specialists including trained.
authors.affiliation: MD, PhD, FRACP, Medicine, Cancer, and Community Directorate, Wellington Regional Hospital, Level 6, Grace Neil Block, Private Bag 7902, Wellington South. anna.ranta@otago.ac.nz.
authors.forename: Annemarei Anna
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Ranta
authors.forename: Priyesh
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Tiwari
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Mottershead
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Abernethy
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Simpson
authors.forename: Kiri
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Brickell
authors.forename: Christopher
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Lynch
authors.forename: Elizabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Walker
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Frith
mesh_terms: D003363:Cost Control; D006290:Health Planning Technical Assistance; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006280:Health Workforce / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D009462:Neurology / Q000191:economics / Q000458:organization & administration; D009520:New Zealand; D010820:Physicians / Q000600:supply & distribution*