title: Emission Projections for Long-Haul Freight Trucks and Rail in the United States through 2050.
abstract: This work develops an integrated model approach for estimating emissions from long-haul freight truck and rail transport in the United States between 2010 and 2050. We connect models of macroeconomic activity, freight demand by commodity, transportation networks, and emission technology to represent different pathways of future freight emissions. Emissions of particulate matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and total hydrocarbon (THC) decrease by 60%-70% from 2010 to 2030, as older vehicles built to less-stringent emission standards retire. Climate policy, in the form of carbon tax that increases apparent fuel prices, causes a shift from truck to rail, resulting in a 30% reduction in fuel consumption and a 10%-28% reduction in pollutant emissions by 2050, if rail capacity is sufficient. Eliminating high-emitting conditions in the truck fleet affects air pollutants by 20% to 65%; although these estimates are highly uncertain, they indicate the importance of durability in vehicle engines and emission control systems. Future infrastructure investment will be required both to meet transport demand and to enable actions that reduce emissions of air and climate pollutants. By driving the integrated model framework with two macroeconomic scenarios, we show that the effect of carbon tax on air pollution is robust regardless of growth levels.
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States.
authors.forename: Liang
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States.
authors.forename: Taesung
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hwang
authors.affiliation: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , Champaign, Illinois 61820, United States.
authors.forename: Sungwon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States.
authors.forename: Yanfeng
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ouyang
authors.affiliation: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , Champaign, Illinois 61820, United States.
authors.forename: Bumsoo
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , College Park, Maryland 20740, United States.
authors.forename: Steven J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory , Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States.
authors.forename: Fang
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, Pennsylvania State University , University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, United States.
authors.forename: Kathryn
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Daenzer
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign , Urbana, Illinois 61801, United States.
authors.forename: Tami C
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Bond
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control; D002248:Carbon Monoxide / Q000032:analysis; D058735:Environmental Policy; D006838:Hydrocarbons / Q000032:analysis; D018803:Models, Economic; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018986:Motor Vehicles / Q000191:economics; D009589:Nitrogen Oxides / Q000032:analysis; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis; D011890:Railroads / Q000191:economics; D014481:United States; D001335:Vehicle Emissions / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D006838:Hydrocarbons; D009589:Nitrogen Oxides; D052638:Particulate Matter; D001335:Vehicle Emissions; D002248:Carbon Monoxide