title: Evaluation of the AnnAGNPS Model for Predicting Runoff and Nutrient Export in a Typical Small Watershed in the Hilly Region of Taihu Lake.
abstract: The application of hydrological and water quality models is an efficient approach to better understand the processes of environmental deterioration. This study evaluated the ability of the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS) model to predict runoff, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loading in a typical small watershed of a hilly region near Taihu Lake, China. Runoff was calibrated and validated at both an annual and monthly scale, and parameter sensitivity analysis was performed for TN and TP before the two water quality components were calibrated. The results showed that the model satisfactorily simulated runoff at annual and monthly scales, both during calibration and validation processes. Additionally, results of parameter sensitivity analysis showed that the parameters Fertilizer rate, Fertilizer organic, Canopy cover and Fertilizer inorganic were more sensitive to TN output. In terms of TP, the parameters Residue mass ratio, Fertilizer rate, Fertilizer inorganic and Canopy cover were the most sensitive. Based on these sensitive parameters, calibration was performed. TN loading produced satisfactory results for both the calibration and validation processes, whereas the performance of TP loading was slightly poor. The simulation results showed that AnnAGNPS has the potential to be used as a valuable tool for the planning and management of watersheds.
authors.affiliation: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, No. 1, Weigang Road, Xuanwu District, Nanjing 210095,Jiangsu, China. lc_notek@163.com.
authors.forename: Chuan
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.affiliation: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, No. 1, Weigang Road, Xuanwu District, Nanjing 210095,Jiangsu, China. lizhaofu@njau.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Zhaofu
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 73, Beijing East Road, Nanjing 210095,Jiangsu, China. hpli@niglas.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Hengpeng
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, No. 1, Weigang Road, Xuanwu District, Nanjing 210095,Jiangsu, China. xmchen@njau.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Xiaomin
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002138:Calibration; D002681:China; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005308:Fertilizers; D062070:Hydrology; D060106:Lakes; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009584:Nitrogen / Q000032:analysis; D010758:Phosphorus / Q000032:analysis; D014872:Water Movements; D060753:Water Quality
chemical_list: D005308:Fertilizers; D010758:Phosphorus; D009584:Nitrogen
keywords: AnnAGNPS model; nitrogen; parameter sensitivity analysis; phosphorus; runoff