title: Control of epidemics on complex networks: Effectiveness of delayed isolation.
abstract: We study isolation as a means to control epidemic outbreaks in complex networks, focusing on the consequences of delays in isolating infected nodes. Our analysis uncovers a tipping point: if infected nodes are isolated before a critical day dc, the disease is effectively controlled, whereas for longer delays the number of infected nodes climbs steeply. We show that dc can be estimated explicitly in terms of network properties and disease parameters, connecting lowered values of dc explicitly to heterogeneity in degree distribution. Our results reveal also that initial delays in the implementation of isolation protocols can have catastrophic consequences in heterogeneous networks. As our study is carried out in a general framework, it has the potential to offer insight and suggest proactive strategies for containing outbreaks of a range of serious infectious diseases.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom.|Institute of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Universidade de São Paulo, São Carlos 13566-590, São Paulo, Brazil.
authors.forename: Tiago
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Pereira
authors.affiliation: Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York 10003, New York, USA.
authors.forename: Lai-Sang
authors.initials: LS
authors.lastname: Young
mesh_terms: D058872:Epidemics / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D010356:Patient Isolation / Q000379:methods; D013995:Time