title: Adaptation pathways of global wheat production: Importance of strategic adaptation to climate change.
abstract: Agricultural adaptation is necessary to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on crop yields and to maintain food production. However, few studies have assessed the course of adaptation along with the progress of climate change in each of the current major food producing countries. Adaptation pathways, which describe the temporal sequences of adaptations, are helpful for illustrating the timing and intensity of the adaptation required. Here we present adaptation pathways in the current major wheat-producing countries, based on sequential introduction of the minimum adaptation measures necessary to maintain current wheat yields through the 21st century. We considered two adaptation options: (i) expanding irrigation infrastructure; and (ii) switching crop varieties and developing new heat-tolerant varieties. We find that the adaptation pathways differ markedly among the countries. The adaptation pathways are sensitive to both the climate model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system, and the degree of sensitivity differs among countries. Finally, the negative impacts of climate change could be moderated by implementing adaptations steadily according to forecasts of the necessary future adaptations, as compared to missing the appropriate timing to implement adaptations.
authors.affiliation: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan.
authors.forename: Akemi
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Tanaka
authors.affiliation: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan.
authors.forename: Kiyoshi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Takahashi
authors.affiliation: College of Agriculture, Ibaraki University, 3-21-1 Chuo, Ami, Inashiki, Ibaraki 300-0393, Japan.
authors.forename: Yuji
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Masutomi
authors.affiliation: Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan.
authors.forename: Naota
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Hanasaki
authors.affiliation: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan.
authors.forename: Yasuaki
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hijioka
authors.affiliation: Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan.
authors.forename: Hideo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Shiogama
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, N10 W5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810, Japan.
authors.forename: Yasuhiro
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yamanaka
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D018556:Crops, Agricultural; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014908:Triticum