title: A simple algorithm for analyzing uncertainty of accident reconstruction results.
abstract: In order to analyzing the uncertainty in accident reconstruction, based on the theory of extreme value and the convex model theory, the uncertainty analysis problem is turn to an extreme value problem. In order to calculate the range of the dependent variable, the extreme value in the definition domain and on the boundary of the definition domain are calculated independently, and then the upper and lower bound of the dependent variable can be given by these obtained extreme values. Based on such idea and through analyzing five numerical cases, a simple algorithm for calculating the range of an accident reconstruction result was given; appropriate results can be obtained through the proposed algorithm in these cases. Finally, a real world vehicle-motorcycle accident was given, the range of the reconstructed velocity of the vehicle was calculated by employing the Pc-Crash, the response surface methodology and the new proposed algorithm, the range was [66.1-67.3] km/h. This research will provide another choice for uncertainty analysis in accident reconstruction.
authors.affiliation: Hunan Province Key Laboratory of Safety Design and Reliability Technology for Engineering Vehicle (Changsha University of Science & Technology), Changsha 410114, Hunan, China; School of Automobile and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China. Electronic address: tiefang@163.com.
authors.forename: Tiefang
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Zou
authors.affiliation: Hunan Province Key Laboratory of Safety Design and Reliability Technology for Engineering Vehicle (Changsha University of Science & Technology), Changsha 410114, Hunan, China; School of Automobile and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China.
authors.forename: Lin
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: Traffic Management Research Institute of ministry of Public Security, Wuxi 214151, Jiangsu, China.
authors.forename: Pingfan
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Hunan Province Key Laboratory of Safety Design and Reliability Technology for Engineering Vehicle (Changsha University of Science & Technology), Changsha 410114, Hunan, China; School of Automobile and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China.
authors.forename: Hequan
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wu
keywords: Accident reconstruction; Convex model; Extreme value; Interval; Uncertainty analysis