title: Climate Change-Induced Range Expansion of a Subterranean Rodent: Implications for Rangeland Management in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.
abstract: Disturbances, both human-induced and natural, may re-shape ecosystems by influencing their composition, structure, and functional processes. Plateau zokor (Eospalax baileyi) is a typical subterranean rodent endemic to Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which are considered ecosystem engineers influencing the alpine ecosystem function. It is also regarded as a pest aggravating the degradation of overgrazed grassland and subject to regular control in QTP since 1950s. Climate change has been predicted in this region but little research exists exploring its impact on such subterranean rodent populations. Using plateau zokor as a model, through maximum entropy niche-based modeling (Maxent) and sustainable habitat models, we investigate zokor habitat dynamics driven by the future climate scenarios. Our models project that zokor suitable habitat will increase by 6.25% in 2050 in QTP. The predication indicated more threats in terms of grassland degradation as zokor suitable habitat will increase in 2050. Distribution of zokors will shift much more in their southern range with lower elevation compare to northern range with higher elevation. The estimated distance of shift ranges from 1 km to 94 km from current distribution. Grassland management should take into account such predictions in order to design mitigation measures to prevent further grassland degradation in QTP under climate change scenarios.
authors.affiliation: College of Grassland Science, Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecosystem (Ministry of Education), Pratacultural Engineering Laboratory of Gansu Province, Sino-U. S. Centers for Grazing land Ecosystem Sustainability, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, 730070, P. R. China; Gansu Agricultural University-Massey University Research Centre for Grassland Biodiversity, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, 730070, P. R. China; State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, P. R. China.
authors.forename: Junhu
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Su
authors.affiliation: Gansu Agricultural University-Massey University Research Centre for Grassland Biodiversity, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, 730070, P. R. China; Institute of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Private Bag 102 904 North Shore Mail Centre 0632, Auckland, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Achyut
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Aryal
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, P. R. China.
authors.forename: Zhibiao
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Nan
authors.affiliation: College of Grassland Science, Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecosystem (Ministry of Education), Pratacultural Engineering Laboratory of Gansu Province, Sino-U. S. Centers for Grazing land Ecosystem Sustainability, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, 730070, P. R. China; Gansu Agricultural University-Massey University Research Centre for Grassland Biodiversity, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou, 730070, P. R. China; Institute of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Private Bag 102 904 North Shore Mail Centre 0632, Auckland, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Weihong
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Ji
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009115:Muridae / Q000502:physiology*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D018609:Tibet