title: Non-random patterns in viral diversity.
abstract: It is currently unclear whether changes in viral communities will ever be predictable. Here we investigate whether viral communities in wildlife are inherently structured (inferring predictability) by looking at whether communities are assembled through deterministic (often predictable) or stochastic (not predictable) processes. We sample macaque faeces across nine sites in Bangladesh and use consensus PCR and sequencing to discover 184 viruses from 14 viral families. We then use network modelling and statistical null-hypothesis testing to show the presence of non-random deterministic patterns at different scales, between sites and within individuals. We show that the effects of determinism are not absolute however, as stochastic patterns are also observed. In showing that determinism is an important process in viral community assembly we conclude that it should be possible to forecast changes to some portion of a viral community, however there will always be some portion for which prediction will be unlikely.
authors.affiliation: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.|Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.|EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, New York, New York 10001, USA.
authors.forename: Simon J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Anthony
authors.affiliation: EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, New York, New York 10001, USA.
authors.forename: Ariful
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Islam
authors.affiliation: One Health Institute &Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA.
authors.forename: Christine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Johnson
authors.affiliation: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
authors.forename: Isamara
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Navarrete-Macias
authors.affiliation: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.|EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, New York, New York 10001, USA.
authors.forename: Eliza
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Liang
authors.affiliation: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
authors.forename: Komal
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Jain
authors.affiliation: One Health Institute &Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA.|Department of Animal Environment and Health, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, PO Box 7068, SE-750 07 Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Peta L
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7528-7056
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Hitchens
authors.affiliation: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
authors.forename: Xiaoyu
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Che
authors.affiliation: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Soloyvov
authors.affiliation: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
authors.forename: Allison L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Hicks
authors.affiliation: Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, México D.F. 04510, Mexico.
authors.forename: Rafael
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7122-2968
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ojeda-Flores
authors.affiliation: EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, New York, New York 10001, USA.
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Zambrana-Torrelio
authors.affiliation: Nicolaus Copernicus University, Lwowska 1, 87-100 Toruń, Poland.
authors.forename: Werner
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8715-6619
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Ulrich
authors.affiliation: EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, New York, New York 10001, USA.
authors.forename: Melinda K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Rostal
authors.affiliation: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
authors.forename: Alexandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Petrosov
authors.affiliation: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
authors.forename: Joel
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Garcia
authors.affiliation: International Centre for Diahorreal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), GPO Box 128, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh.|Section for Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Bülowsvej 27, DK-1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark.
authors.forename: Najmul
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5980-3460
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Haider
authors.affiliation: Metabiota, Inc. One Sutter, Suite 600, San Francisco, CA 94104, USA.
authors.forename: Nathan
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Wolfe
authors.affiliation: One Health Institute &Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA.
authors.forename: Tracey
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Goldstein
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
authors.forename: Stephen S
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Morse
authors.affiliation: IEDCR (Institute of epidemiology and disease control research), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of Bangladesh, Mohakhali, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh.
authors.forename: Mahmudur
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rahman
authors.affiliation: EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, New York, New York 10001, USA.
authors.forename: Jonathan H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Epstein
authors.affiliation: One Health Institute &Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA.
authors.forename: Jonna K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Mazet
authors.affiliation: EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, New York, New York 10001, USA.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Daszak
authors.affiliation: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.|Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, USA.
authors.forename: W Ian
authors.initials: WI
authors.lastname: Lipkin
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild; D001459:Bangladesh / Q000453:epidemiology; D005243:Feces / Q000821:virology*; D014644:Genetic Variation; D008253:Macaca mulatta; D008969:Molecular Sequence Data; D008992:Monkey Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology*; D014777:Virus Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000662:veterinary* / Q000821:virology; D014780:Viruses / Q000235:genetics*