title: China's air pollution reduction efforts may result in an increase in surface ozone levels in highly polluted areas.
abstract: China, as a fast growing fossil-fuel-based economy, experiences increasing levels of air pollution. To tackle air pollution, China has taken the first steps by setting emission-reduction targets for nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) in the 11th and 12th Five Year Plans. This paper uses two models-the Energy-Environment-Economy Model at the Global level (E3MG) and the global Chemistry Transport Model pTOMCAT-to test the effects of these policies. If the policy targets are met, then the maximum values of 32 % and 45 % reductions below 'business as usual' in the monthly mean NO x and SO2 concentrations, respectively, will be achieved in 2015. However, a decrease in NO x concentrations in some highly polluted areas of East, North-East and South-East China can lead to up to a 10% increase in the monthly mean concentrations in surface ozone in 2015. Our study demonstrates an urgent need for the more detailed analysis of the impacts and designs of air pollution reduction guidelines for China.
authors.affiliation: School of Environmental Sciences and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK. a.anger-kraavi@uea.ac.uk.|Emmanuel College, St Andrews Street, Cambridge, CB2 3AP, UK. a.anger-kraavi@uea.ac.uk.|Downing College, Regent Street, Cambridge, CB2 1DQ, UK. a.anger-kraavi@uea.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Annela
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Anger
authors.affiliation: Energy Institute, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN, UK. o.dessens@ucl.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Olivier
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Dessens
authors.affiliation: Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 417, No. 72 Wenhua Road, Shenyang, 110016, China. xifengming@iae.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Fengming
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Xi
authors.affiliation: School of Environmental Sciences and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK. tsb1@cam.ac.uk.|Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge, CB3 9EP, UK. tsb1@cam.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Terry
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Barker
authors.affiliation: Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 417, No. 72 Wenhua Road, Shenyang, 110016, China. njwurui@126.com.
authors.forename: Rui
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Wu
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000517:prevention & control*; D002681:China; D002947:Cities; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009589:Nitrogen Oxides / Q000032:analysis*; D010126:Ozone / Q000032:analysis*; D012939:Social Planning; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D009589:Nitrogen Oxides; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide; D010126:Ozone
keywords: Atmospheric pollution; China; Five Year Plan; Surface ozone