title: Estimates of global and regional premature cardiovascular mortality in 2025.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  United Nations member states have agreed to reduce premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality 25% by 2025. Global CVD risk factor targets have been recommended. We produced estimates to show how selected risk factor reduction would affect CVD mortality for different regions and countries.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We used mortality, risk factor, and relative risk data from the Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors, and Injuries (GBD) 2013 study to project CVD mortality for 188 countries up to the year 2025. We disaggregated observed CVD mortality in 1990 and 2013 into deaths attributable and unattributable to hypertension, tobacco smoking, diabetes mellitus, and obesity using an age- and sex-specific population-attributable fraction. Risk factors were projected to 2025 assuming that current trends continue. Counterfactual scenarios were then constructed reflecting CVD premature mortality if United Nations risk factor targets are achieved in the year 2025, adjusting for joint effects of risk factors. We estimate 7.8 million premature CVD deaths in 2025 if current risk factor trends continue. Premature CVD deaths would be reduced to 5.7 million if these risk factors targets are achieved as a result of a 26% reduction for men and a 23% reduction for women in the global risk of premature CVD death. Globally, decreasing the prevalence of hypertension accounted for the largest risk reduction, followed by a reduction in tobacco smoking for men and obesity for women, but these results varied by region. The impact of meeting all risk factor targets on CVD mortality varied widely by region and sex.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The United Nations target of a 25% reduction in premature CVD mortality by the year 2025 appears achievable for some countries, but more aggressive risk factor targets may be required if all regions are to reach this goal. Without these reductions in CVD risk factors, many countries will see no change or even an increase in premature CVD mortality.
authors.affiliation: From Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.A.R.), and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.N., M.H.F., A.H.M., M.N., C.J.L.M.), University of Washington, Seattle. rothg@uw.edu.
authors.forename: Gregory A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Roth
authors.affiliation: From Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.A.R.), and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.N., M.H.F., A.H.M., M.N., C.J.L.M.), University of Washington, Seattle.
authors.forename: Grant
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Nguyen
authors.affiliation: From Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.A.R.), and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.N., M.H.F., A.H.M., M.N., C.J.L.M.), University of Washington, Seattle.
authors.forename: Mohammad H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Forouzanfar
authors.affiliation: From Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.A.R.), and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.N., M.H.F., A.H.M., M.N., C.J.L.M.), University of Washington, Seattle.
authors.forename: Ali H
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: Mokdad
authors.affiliation: From Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.A.R.), and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.N., M.H.F., A.H.M., M.N., C.J.L.M.), University of Washington, Seattle.
authors.forename: Mohsen
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Naghavi
authors.affiliation: From Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.A.R.), and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.N., M.H.F., A.H.M., M.N., C.J.L.M.), University of Washington, Seattle.
authors.forename: Christopher J L
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Murray
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality* / Q000517:prevention & control; D019049:Developed Countries; D003906:Developing Countries; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D014943:Global Health / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D061213:Mortality, Premature / Q000639:trends; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D040242:Risk Reduction Behavior; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: epidemiology; population; prevention and control; risk factors