title: The role of numeracy and approximate number system acuity in predicting value and probability distortion.
abstract: It is well documented that individuals distort outcome values and probabilities when making choices from descriptions, and there is evidence of systematic individual differences in distortion. In the present study, we investigated the relationship between individual differences in such distortions and two measures of numerical competence, numeracy and approximate number system (ANS) acuity. Participants indicated certainty equivalents for a series of simple monetary gambles, and data were used to estimate individual-level value and probability distortion, using a cumulative prospect theory framework. We found moderately strong negative correlations between numeracy and value and probability distortion, but only weak and non-statistically reliable correlations between ANS acuity and distortions. We conclude that low numeracy contributes to number distortion in decision making, but that approximate number system acuity might not underlie this relationship.
authors.affiliation: Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT, USA. apatalano@wesleyan.edu.|Department of Psychology, Wesleyan University, 207 High St, Middletown, CT, 06459, USA. apatalano@wesleyan.edu.
authors.forename: Andrea L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Patalano
authors.affiliation: Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT, USA.
authors.forename: Jason R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Saltiel
authors.affiliation: Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT, USA.
authors.forename: Laura
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Machlin
authors.affiliation: Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT, USA.
authors.forename: Hilary
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Barth
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D003657:Decision Making / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007206:Individuality; D008297:Male; D055641:Mathematical Concepts; D011336:Probability; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: ANS acuity; Cumulative prospect theory; Numeracy; Probability weighting