title: Determinant of Road Traffic Crash Fatalities in Iran: A Longitudinal Econometric Analysis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Injuries and deaths from road traffic crashes are one of the main public health problems throughout the world. This study aimed to identify determinants of fatality traffic accident in Iran for the twenty-span year from 1991 to 2011.
  
  
  METHODS
  A time series analysis (1991-2011) was used to examine the effects of some of the key explanatory factors (GDP per capita, number of doctors per 10,000 populations, degree of urbanization, unemployment rate and motorization rate) on deaths from road traffic in Iran. In order to examine long- and short-run effects of variables, we employed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and error correction method (ECM). The data for the study was obtained from the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), Iranian Statistical Center (ISC) and Legal medical organizations (LMO).
  
  
  RESULTS
  GDP per capita, doctor per 10,000 populations, degree of urbanization and motorization rate had a significant impact on fatality from road traffic in Iran. We did not observe any short- and long-term effects of the unemployment rate on fatality from road traffic.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  GDP per capita, doctor per 10,000 populations, degree of urbanization and motorization rate were identified as main determinant of fatality from road traffic accidents in Iran. We hope the results of the current study enable health policy-makers to understand better the factors affecting deaths from road traffic accidents in the country.
authors.affiliation: Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran. satarrezaei@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Satar
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rezaei
authors.affiliation: Health Policy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
authors.forename: Kamran
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Bagheri Lankarani
authors.affiliation: Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
authors.forename: Behzad
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Karami Matin
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Management and Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Mohammad
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bazyar
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, School of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
authors.forename: Behrooz
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Hamzeh
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, School of Public Health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran. Fnajafi@kums.ac.ir.
authors.forename: Farid
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Najafi
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality* / Q000639:trends*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D017059:Models, Econometric
keywords: Autoregressive Distributed Lag; Fatalities; Iran; Road Traffic Accidents; Time Series Analysis