title: Mortality Characteristic and Prediction of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To analyze the mortality distribution of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013, to predict the mortality in the ensuing five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.
  
  
  METHODS
  Mortality data for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, sex and age differences, urban-rural differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the ensuing five years in the future.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In China, the standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma increased with time from 1996, reaching the peak values of 1.45 /105 at the year of 2002, and decreased gradually afterwards. With males being 1.51 times higher than females, and the city had a higher rate than the rural during the past two decades. The mortality rate increased from age 40. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from middle to southern China.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma is falling. The regional disease control for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma should be focused on Guangdong province of China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men, especially after the age of 40. The mortality of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma will decrease in the next five years.
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, China E-mail : klin@stu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Zhen-Xi
authors.initials: ZX
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Zhi-Xiong
authors.initials: ZX
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.forename: Jia-Ying
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.forename: Ku-Sheng
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.forename: Pei-Ling
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Du
authors.forename: Yang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.forename: Wen-Rui
authors.initials: WR
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.forename: Xiao-Ling
authors.initials: XL
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Lin
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002277:Carcinoma / Q000401:mortality* / Q000517:prevention & control; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D009303:Nasopharyngeal Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000517:prevention & control; D012042:Registries; D012424:Rural Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012737:Sex Factors; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D055815:Young Adult