title: A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion.
abstract: A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world's biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth's at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.
authors.affiliation: The Nature Conservancy, Development by Design Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
authors.forename: James R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Oakleaf
authors.affiliation: The Nature Conservancy, Development by Design Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
authors.forename: Christina M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Kennedy
authors.affiliation: The Nature Conservancy, Development by Design Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
authors.forename: Sharon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Baruch-Mordo
authors.affiliation: Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America.
authors.forename: Paul C
authors.initials: PC
authors.lastname: West
authors.affiliation: Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, United States of America.
authors.forename: James S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Gerber
authors.affiliation: Land Use and Global Environment (LUGE) Research Group, Liu Institute for Global Issues, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
authors.forename: Larissa
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Jarvis
authors.affiliation: The Nature Conservancy, Development by Design Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
authors.forename: Joseph
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kiesecker
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa; D000383:Agriculture / Q000639:trends*; D000569:Americas; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods / Q000639:trends*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D011157:Population Dynamics / Q000639:trends*