title: Spillover and pandemic properties of zoonotic viruses with high host plasticity.
abstract: Most human infectious diseases, especially recently emerging pathogens, originate from animals, and ongoing disease transmission from animals to people presents a significant global health burden. Recognition of the epidemiologic circumstances involved in zoonotic spillover, amplification, and spread of diseases is essential for prioritizing surveillance and predicting future disease emergence risk. We examine the animal hosts and transmission mechanisms involved in spillover of zoonotic viruses to date, and discover that viruses with high host plasticity (i.e. taxonomically and ecologically diverse host range) were more likely to amplify viral spillover by secondary human-to-human transmission and have broader geographic spread. Viruses transmitted to humans during practices that facilitate mixing of diverse animal species had significantly higher host plasticity. Our findings suggest that animal-to-human spillover of new viruses that are capable of infecting diverse host species signal emerging disease events with higher pandemic potential in that these viruses are more likely to amplify by human-to-human transmission with spread on a global scale.
authors.affiliation: One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA USA.
authors.forename: Christine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Kreuder Johnson
authors.affiliation: One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA USA.
authors.forename: Peta L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Hitchens
authors.affiliation: One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA USA.
authors.forename: Tierra
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Smiley Evans
authors.affiliation: One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA USA.
authors.forename: Tracey
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Goldstein
authors.affiliation: One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA USA.
authors.forename: Kate
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.affiliation: USAID, Bureau for Global Health, Washington DC, USA.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Clements
authors.affiliation: Metabiota, San Francisco, CA USA.
authors.forename: Damien O
authors.initials: DO
authors.lastname: Joly
authors.affiliation: Metabiota, San Francisco, CA USA.
authors.forename: Nathan D
authors.initials: ND
authors.lastname: Wolfe
authors.affiliation: EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY USA.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Daszak
authors.affiliation: EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY USA.
authors.forename: William B
authors.initials: WB
authors.lastname: Karesh
authors.affiliation: One Health Institute, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA USA.
authors.forename: Jonna K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Mazet
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D000569:Americas / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D001208:Asia / Q000453:epidemiology; D021821:Communicable Diseases, Emerging / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D016679:Genome, Viral; D058507:Host Specificity; D006802:Human Activities; D006801:Humans; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D058873:Pandemics; D014777:Virus Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D014780:Viruses / Q000235:genetics / Q000472:pathogenicity; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology