title: Cancers in Australia in 2010 attributable to and prevented by the use of menopausal hormone therapy.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the proportion and number of cancers occurring in Australia in 2010 attributable to menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use.
  
  
  METHODS
  We estimated the population attributable fraction for cancers causally associated with MHT (breast, endometrium, ovary), and the proportion of colorectal cancers prevented by MHT. We used standard formulae incorporating Australian prevalence data, relative risks of cancer associated with MHT and cancer incidence. We also estimated potential change in cancer incidence under two hypothetical scenarios whereby 25% fewer Australian women used MHT, or women exclusively used oestrogen-only MHT.
  
  
  RESULTS
  An estimated 539 cancers in Australia in 2010 were attributable to MHT: 453 breast, 67 endometrial and 19 ovarian cancers equating to 3.4%, 3.1% and 1.6% of each cancer type, respectively. In contrast, MHT may have prevented 52 colorectal cancers. If 25% fewer women used MHT, then 141 cancers may have been avoided. If women exclusively used oestrogen-only MHT then 240 cancers may have been avoided.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  MHT use caused more than 500 cancers in Australian women in 2010 and prevented ∼50 colorectal cancers.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  MHT use continues to cause an excess of cancers. The risks, benefits, regimen and treatment duration should be carefully considered for each woman before MHT is commenced.
authors.affiliation: QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.|School of Public Health, The University of Queensland.
authors.forename: Susan J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Jordan
authors.affiliation: QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.
authors.forename: Louise F
authors.initials: LF
authors.lastname: Wilson
authors.affiliation: QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.|School of Public Health, The University of Queensland.
authors.forename: Christina M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Nagle
authors.affiliation: QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.|School of Public Health, The University of Queensland.|Cancer Research UK, Manchester Institute and Institute of Inflammation and Repair, University of Manchester, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Adele C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Green
authors.affiliation: QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.|School of Public Health, The University of Queensland.
authors.forename: Catherine M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Olsen
authors.affiliation: QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.|National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Australian Capital Territory.
authors.forename: Christopher J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Bain
authors.affiliation: QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.|School of Public Health, The University of Queensland.
authors.forename: Nirmala
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Pandeya
authors.affiliation: QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.|School of Public Health, The University of Queensland.
authors.forename: David C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Whiteman
authors.affiliation: QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Queensland.|School of Public Health, The University of Queensland.
authors.forename: Penelope M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Webb
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000139:chemically induced* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms; D016889:Endometrial Neoplasms / Q000139:chemically induced* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D015914:Estrogen Replacement Therapy / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008593:Menopause; D008875:Middle Aged; D010051:Ovarian Neoplasms / Q000139:chemically induced* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D015995:Prevalence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: cancer; menopausal hormone therapy; population attributable fraction; potential impact fraction; risk factor