title: Prediction of trauma-specific death rates of pedestrians of Fars Province, Iran.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Pedestrians are the most vulnerable group to accidents among road users. Due to the well-known concerns and complications of accidents involving pedestrians, the aim of this study was to identify the rate of such accidents for five-year period.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analyzed all fatalities among pedestrians caused by traffic accidents during years of 2009-2013 in Fars Province in Iran. The study was a cross-sectional study in which logistic regression analysis was used to predict the death rate among pedestrians. Sensitivity analysis using the Monte Carlo method was used to increase the accuracy of the results. Then, we predicted the death rates for the years 2014-2018 predicted and compared the results with the actual data from the previous five-year period (2009-2013).
  
  
  RESULTS
  During 2009-2013, 1723 out of 8689 (20.3%) of the people killed in traffic accidents were pedestrians. The death rate for male pedestrians in 2011 was estimated to be 10.86 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 9.85-12.05 per 100,000). Compared to the data for 2006, this represented a decrease of 20% (with a mean decrease of 4% per year). Based on these data, the death date in 2018n was projected to be 8.08 per 100,000 (with an uncertainty interval of 95% giving a range of 7.26-8.87). Similar data and analysis for women indicated that the reduction in the rate of fatalities has been smaller than that for men in recent years, i.e., 2.2% versus 4%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although great progress has been made in reducing traffic accidents, to date, the death rate is still high among pedestrians. It is essential to continue to find ways to reduce traffic accidents and the pedestrians' deaths associated with them, especially among the elderly, who make up a disproportionate fraction of the deaths.
authors.affiliation: M.Sc. in Epidemiology, Health Policy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
authors.forename: Maryam
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Akbari
authors.affiliation: M.Sc. in Epidemiology, Health Policy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
authors.forename: Reza
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Tabrizi
authors.affiliation: Assistant Professor of Biostatistics, Health Policy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
authors.forename: Seyed Taghi
authors.initials: ST
authors.lastname: Heydari
authors.affiliation: Assistant Professor of Biostatistics, Health Policy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
authors.forename: Eghbal
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Sekhavati
authors.affiliation: Assistant Professor of Epidemiology, Health Sciences Research Center, Faculty of Health, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran.
authors.forename: Mahmood
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Moosazadeh
authors.affiliation: Professor of Internal Medicine, Health Policy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
authors.forename: Kamran Bagheri
authors.initials: KB
authors.lastname: Lankarani
keywords: Fars Province; modeling death rate; pedestrians