title: More heads choose better than one: Group decision making can eliminate probability matching.
abstract: Probability matching is a robust and common failure to adhere to normative predictions in sequential decision making. We show that this choice anomaly is nearly eradicated by gathering individual decision makers into small groups and asking the groups to decide. The group choice advantage emerged both when participants generated responses for an entire sequence of choices without outcome feedback (Exp. 1a) and when participants made trial-by-trial predictions with outcome feedback after each decision (Exp. 1b). We show that the dramatic improvement observed in group settings stands in stark contrast to a complete lack of effective solitary deliberation. These findings suggest a crucial role of group discussion in alleviating the impact of hasty intuitive responses in tasks better suited to careful deliberation.
authors.affiliation: Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany. cschulze@mpib-berlin.mpg.de.|University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. cschulze@mpib-berlin.mpg.de.
authors.forename: Christin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Schulze
authors.affiliation: University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
authors.forename: Ben R
authors.initials: BR
authors.lastname: Newell
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002755:Choice Behavior; D003299:Cooperative Behavior; D003657:Decision Making; D005246:Feedback; D005260:Female; D006126:Group Processes; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011336:Probability; D011582:Psychological Theory; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Group decision making; Probability matching; Rational choice theory