title: [Projection of prisoner numbers].
abstract: The past and future development of occupancy rates in prisons is of crucial importance for the judicial administration of every country. Basic factors for planning the required penal facilities are seasonal fluctuations, minimum, maximum and average occupancy as well as the present situation and potential development of certain imprisonment categories. As the prisoner number of a country is determined by a complex set of interdependent conditions, it has turned out to be difficult to provide any theoretical explanations. The idea accepted in criminology for a long time that prisoner numbers are interdependent with criminal policy must be regarded as having failed. Statistical and time series analyses may help, however, to identify the factors having influenced the development of prisoner numbers in the past. The analyses presented here, first describe such influencing factors from a criminological perspective and then deal with their statistical identification and modelling. Using the development of prisoner numbers in Hesse as an example, it has been found that modelling methods in which the independent variables predict the dependent variable with a time lag are particularly helpful. A potential complication is, however, that for predicting the number of prisoners the different dynamics in German and foreign prisoners require the development of further models.
authors.forename: Rainer
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Metz
authors.forename: Werner
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Sohn
mesh_terms: D003416:Criminal Law / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000639:trends; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D005858:Germany; D006801:Humans; D065186:Interrupted Time Series Analysis; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011329:Prisoners / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011330:Prisons / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D012621:Seasons