title: Cervical Cancer Mortality Trends in China, 1991-2013, and Predictions for the Future.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in China from 1991-2013 and forecast the mortality distribution in future five years (2014-2018), and provide clues for prevention and treatment.
  
  
  METHODS
  Mortality data for cervical cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics and distribution, including the trend of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, and age variation. Trend-surface analysis was used to analyze the geographical distribution of mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were performed to predict and forecast mortality trends.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In recent years, the mortality rate of cervical cancer has increased, and there is also a steady increase in the incidence from 2003 to 2013 in China. Mortality rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas. The mortality dramatically increases in the 40+ yr age group, reaching a peak in the >85 yr age group. In addition, geographical analysis showed that the cervical cancer mortality increased from the southwest to west-central and from the southeast to northeast of the country.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The incidence rate and the mortality rate are increasing from 1991 to 2013, and the predictions show this will continue in the future. Thus, implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especially for rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions (the west-central).
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China E-mail : klin@stu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Pei-Ling
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Du
authors.forename: Ku-Sheng
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.forename: Jia-Ying
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.forename: Yang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.forename: Zhen-Xi
authors.initials: ZX
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Wen-Rui
authors.initials: WR
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.forename: Xiao-Ling
authors.initials: XL
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Lin
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D012424:Rural Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D002583:Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality* / Q000517:prevention & control; D055815:Young Adult