title: Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems.
abstract: Identifying regions important for spreading and mediating perturbations is crucial to assess the susceptibilities of spatio-temporal complex systems such as the Earth's climate to volcanic eruptions, extreme events or geoengineering. Here a data-driven approach is introduced based on a dimension reduction, causal reconstruction, and novel network measures based on causal effect theory that go beyond standard complex network tools by distinguishing direct from indirect pathways. Applied to a data set of atmospheric dynamics, the method identifies several strongly uplifting regions acting as major gateways of perturbations spreading in the atmosphere. Additionally, the method provides a stricter statistical approach to pathways of atmospheric teleconnections, yielding insights into the Pacific-Indian Ocean interaction relevant for monsoonal dynamics. Also for neuroscience or power grids, the novel causal interaction perspective provides a complementary approach to simulations or experiments for understanding the functioning of complex spatio-temporal systems with potential applications in increasing their resilience to shocks or extreme events.
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam 14412, Germany.|Department of Physics, Humboldt University, Newtonstrasse 15, Berlin 12489, Germany.
authors.forename: Jakob
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Runge
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam 14412, Germany.
authors.forename: Vladimir
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Petoukhov
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam 14412, Germany.|Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, Stockholm 11419, Sweden.
authors.forename: Jonathan F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Donges
authors.affiliation: Department of Nonlinear Dynamics and Complex Systems, Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod vodárenskou věží 2, Prague 8 18207, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Jaroslav
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hlinka
authors.affiliation: Department of Nonlinear Dynamics and Complex Systems, Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod vodárenskou věží 2, Prague 8 18207, Czech Republic.|Department of Atmospheric Physics, Charles University, V Holešovičkách 2, Prague 8 18000, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Nikola
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Jajcay
authors.affiliation: Department of Nonlinear Dynamics and Complex Systems, Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod vodárenskou věží 2, Prague 8 18207, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Vejmelka
authors.affiliation: Department of Nonlinear Dynamics and Complex Systems, Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod vodárenskou věží 2, Prague 8 18207, Czech Republic.|Computer Science Institute, Charles University, Malostranské náměstí, 2/25, Prague 1, 18000, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Hartman
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam 14412, Germany.
authors.forename: Norbert
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Marwan
authors.affiliation: Department of Nonlinear Dynamics and Complex Systems, Institute of Computer Science, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Pod vodárenskou věží 2, Prague 8 18207, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Milan
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Paluš
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam 14412, Germany.|Department of Physics, Humboldt University, Newtonstrasse 15, Berlin 12489, Germany.|Institute for Complex Systems and Mathematical Biology, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 3UE, UK.|Department of Control Theory, Nizhny Novgorod State University, Gagarin Avenue 23, Nizhny Novgorod 606950, Russia.|Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ul Ulyanova 46, 603950, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia.
authors.forename: Jürgen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kurths