title: Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the 'high risk' patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk.
  
  
  METHODS
  Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien-Dindo classification.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 2-3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4-5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the 'high-risk' patient.
authors.affiliation: Sandwell General Hospital, Lyndon, West Bromwich, West Midlands, B71 4HJ, UK.
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Stonelake
authors.affiliation: Whipps Cross Hospital, Whipps Cross Road, London, E11 1NR, UK.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Thomson
authors.affiliation: Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham, Mindelsohn Way, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2GW, UK.
authors.forename: Nigel
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Suggett
keywords: Emergency laparotomy risk prediction mortality