title: Prevalence of Prostate Cancer Clinical States and Mortality in the United States: Estimates Using a Dynamic Progression Model.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To identify patient populations most in need of treatment across the prostate cancer disease continuum, we developed a novel dynamic transition model based on risk of disease progression and mortality.
  We modeled the flow of patient populations through eight prostate cancer clinical states (PCCS) that are characterized by the status of the primary tumor, presence of metastases, prior and current treatment, and testosterone levels. Simulations used published US incidence rates for each year from 1990. Progression and mortality rates were derived from published clinical trials, meta-analyses, and observational studies. Model outputs included the incidence, prevalence, and mortality for each PCCS. The impact of novel treatments was modeled in three distinct scenarios: metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), non-metastatic CRPC (nmCRPC), or both.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The model estimated the prevalence of prostate cancer as 2,219,280 in the US in 2009 and 3,072,480 in 2020, and incidence of mCRPC as 36,100 and 42,970, respectively. All-cause mortality in prostate cancer was estimated at 168,290 in 2009 and 219,360 in 2020, with 20.5% and 19.5% of these deaths, respectively, occurring in men with mCRPC. The majority (86%) of incidence flow into mCRPC states was from the nmCRPC clinical state. In the scenario with novel interventions for nmCRPC states, the progression to mCRPC is reduced, thus decreasing mCRPC incidence by 12% in 2020, with a sustained decline in mCRPC mortality. A limitation of the model is that it does not estimate prostate cancer-specific mortality.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The model informs clinical trial design for prostate cancer by quantifying outcomes in PCCS, and demonstrates the impact of an effective therapy applied in an earlier clinical state of nmCRPC on the incidence of mCRPC morbidity and subsequent mortality.
authors.affiliation: Genitourinary Oncology Service, Department of Medicine, Sidney Kimmel Center for Prostate and Urologic Cancers, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, and Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, United States of America.
authors.forename: Howard I
authors.initials: HI
authors.lastname: Scher
authors.affiliation: Lexidyne, Colorado Springs, Colorado, United States of America.
authors.forename: Kirk
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Solo
authors.affiliation: Lexidyne, Colorado Springs, Colorado, United States of America.
authors.forename: Jason
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Valant
authors.affiliation: Janssen Global Services, South Raritan, New Jersey, United States of America.
authors.forename: Mary B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Todd
authors.affiliation: Janssen Global Services, South Raritan, New Jersey, United States of America.
authors.forename: Maneesha
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mehra
mesh_terms: D017326:Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology