title: The influence of assumptions on generation time distributions in epidemic models.
abstract: A simple class of stochastic models for epidemic spread in finite, but large, populations is studied. The purpose is to investigate how assumptions about the times between primary and secondary infections influences the outcome of the epidemic. Of particular interest is how assumptions of individual variability in infectiousness relates to variability of the epidemic curve. The main concern is the final size of the epidemic and the time scale at which it evolves. The theoretical results are illustrated by simulations.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Stockholm university, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Electronic address: akes@math.su.se.
authors.forename: Åke
authors.initials: Å
authors.lastname: Svensson
mesh_terms: D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D058872:Epidemics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D055641:Mathematical Concepts; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Basic reproduction number; Epidemic curve; Epidemic models; Generation time distribution; Kermack–McKendrick-model