title: Cross-immunity between strains explains the dynamical pattern of paramyxoviruses.
abstract: Viral respiratory tract diseases pose serious public health problems. Our ability to predict and thus, be able to prepare for outbreaks is strained by the complex factors driving the prevalence and severity of these diseases. The abundance of diseases and transmission dynamics of strains are not only affected by external factors, such as weather, but also driven by interactions among viruses mediated by human behavior and immunity. To untangle the complex out-of-phase annual and biennial pattern of three common paramyxoviruses, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), Human Parainfluenza Virus (HPIV), and Human Metapneumovirus (hMPV), we adopt a theoretical approach that integrates ecological and immunological mechanisms of disease interactions. By estimating parameters from multiyear time series of laboratory-confirmed cases from the intermountain west region of the United States and using statistical inference, we show that models of immune-mediated interactions better explain the data than those based on ecological competition by convalescence. The strength of cross-protective immunity among viruses is correlated with their genetic distance in the phylogenetic tree of the paramyxovirus family.
authors.affiliation: Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802; Department of Biology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112; szb16@psu.edu.
authors.forename: Samit
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bhattacharyya
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112; Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112;
authors.forename: Per H
authors.initials: PH
authors.lastname: Gesteland
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112; Pediatric Clinical Program, Intermountain Healthcare, Salt Lake City, UT 84111;
authors.forename: Kent
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Korgenski
authors.affiliation: Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892;
authors.forename: Ottar N
authors.initials: ON
authors.lastname: Bjørnstad
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112; Department of Mathematics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112.
authors.forename: Frederick R
authors.initials: FR
authors.lastname: Adler
mesh_terms: D056738:Cross Protection / Q000276:immunology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D029121:Metapneumovirus / Q000276:immunology*; D018448:Models, Immunological; D018184:Paramyxoviridae Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology*; D015995:Prevalence; D012136:Respiratory Syncytial Viruses / Q000276:immunology*; D018108:Respirovirus / Q000276:immunology*; D012621:Seasons; D013045:Species Specificity
keywords: cross-immunity; human parainfluenza; paramyxoviruses; pathogen interactions; respiratory syncytial viruses