title: Latitudinal-Related Variation in Wintering Population Trends of Greylag Geese (Anser Anser) along the Atlantic Flyway: A Response to Climate Change?
abstract: The unusually high quality of census data for large waterbirds in Europe facilitates the study of how population change varies across a broad geographical range and relates to global change. The wintering population of the greylag goose Anser anser in the Atlantic flyway spanning between Sweden and Spain has increased from 120 000 to 610 000 individuals over the past three decades, and expanded its wintering range northwards. Although population sizes recorded in January have increased in all seven countries in the wintering range, we found a pronounced northwards latitudinal effect in which the rate of increase is higher at greater latitudes, causing a constant shift in the centre of gravity for the spatial distribution of wintering geese. Local winter temperatures have a strong influence on goose numbers but in a manner that is also dependent on latitude, with the partial effect of temperature (while controlling for the increasing population trend between years) being negative at the south end and positive at the north end of the flyway. Contrary to assumptions in the literature, the expansion of crops exploited by greylag geese has made little contribution to the increases in population size. Only in one case (expansion of winter cereals in Denmark) did we find evidence of an effect of changing land use. The expanding and shifting greylag population is likely to have increasing impacts on habitats in northern Europe during the course of this century.
authors.affiliation: Wetland Ecology Department, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Sevilla, Spain.
authors.forename: Cristina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ramo
authors.affiliation: Wetland Ecology Department, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Sevilla, Spain.
authors.forename: Juan A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Amat
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
authors.forename: Leif
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Nilsson
authors.affiliation: Office National de la Chasse et de la Faune Sauvage, Nantes, France.
authors.forename: Vincent
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Schricke
authors.affiliation: Servicio Territorial de Medio Ambiente de Zamora, Junta de Castilla León, Zamora, Spain.
authors.forename: Mariano
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rodríguez-Alonso
authors.affiliation: Sección de Espacios Naturales y Especies Protegidas, Consejería de Fomento y Medio Ambiente, Junta de Castilla y León, Palencia, Spain.
authors.forename: Enrique
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Gómez-Crespo
authors.affiliation: Avespalencia.org, Palencia, Spain.
authors.forename: Fernando
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Jubete
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Ciencias Marinas y Limnológicas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile.
authors.forename: Juan G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Navedo
authors.affiliation: Grupo de Biología de la Conservación, Universidad de Extremadura, Badajoz, Spain.
authors.forename: José A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Masero
authors.affiliation: Servicio Territorial de Medio Ambiente de Zamora, Junta de Castilla León, Zamora, Spain.
authors.forename: Jesús
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Palacios
authors.affiliation: Research Agency in Applied Ecology, Naturaconst@, Wilshausen, France.
authors.forename: Mathieu
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Boos
authors.affiliation: Wetland Ecology Department, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC), Sevilla, Spain.
authors.forename: Andy J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Green
mesh_terms: D025041:Animal Migration; D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D005060:Europe; D005777:Geese; D005843:Geography; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012621:Seasons