title: Communicating uncertainty in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts in Europe.
abstract: Across Europe, organizations in different sectors are sensitive to climate variability and change, at a range of temporal scales from the seasonal to the interannual to the multi-decadal. Climate forecast providers face the challenge of communicating the uncertainty inherent in these forecasts to these decision-makers in a way that is transparent, understandable and does not lead to a false sense of certainty. This article reports the findings of a user-needs survey, conducted with 50 representatives of organizations in Europe from a variety of sectors (e.g. water management, forestry, energy, tourism, health) interested in seasonal and interannual climate forecasts. We find that while many participating organizations perform their own 'in house' risk analysis most require some form of processing and interpretation by forecast providers. However, we also find that while users tend to perceive seasonal and interannual forecasts to be useful, they often find them difficult to understand, highlighting the need for communication formats suitable for both expert and non-expert users. In addition, our results show that people tend to prefer familiar formats for receiving information about uncertainty. The implications of these findings for both the providers and users of climate information are discussed.
authors.affiliation: Sustainability Research Institute and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
authors.forename: Andrea L
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8949-1234
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Taylor
authors.affiliation: Sustainability Research Institute and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK s.dessai@leeds.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Suraje
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7879-9364
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Dessai
authors.affiliation: Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
authors.forename: Wändi Bruine
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1601-789X
authors.initials: WB
authors.lastname: de Bruin
keywords: Europe; communicating uncertainty; decadal prediction; risk communication; seasonal climate forecast