title: Assessing Uncertainty in A2 Respiratory Syncytial Virus Viral Dynamics.
abstract: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of bronchiolitis and pneumonia in children younger than 1 year of age in the United States. Moreover, RSV is being recognized more often as a significant cause of respiratory illness in older adults. Although RSV has been studied both clinically and in vitro, a quantitative understanding of the infection dynamics is still lacking. In this paper, we study the effect of uncertainty in the main parameters of a viral kinetics model of RSV. We first characterize the RSV replication cycle and extract parameter values by fitting the mathematical model to in vivo data from eight human subjects. We then use Monte Carlo numerical simulations to determine how uncertainty in the parameter values will affect model predictions. We find that uncertainty in the infection rate, eclipse phase duration, and infectious lifespan most affect the predicted dynamics of RSV. This study provides the first estimate of in vivo RSV infection parameters, helping to quantify RSV dynamics. Our assessment of the effect of uncertainty will help guide future experimental design to obtain more precise parameter values.
authors.affiliation: Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, TX 76132, USA ; Grupo de Matemática Multidisciplinar (GMM), Universidad de Los Andes, Mérida 5101, Venezuela.
authors.forename: Gilberto
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: González-Parra
authors.affiliation: Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas Christian University, Fort Worth, TX 76132, USA.
authors.forename: Hana M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Dobrovolny
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D003198:Computer Simulation; D006801:Humans; D007700:Kinetics; D008954:Models, Biological; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D018357:Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / Q000209:etiology* / Q000821:virology; D012136:Respiratory Syncytial Viruses / Q000502:physiology*; D035501:Uncertainty; D014779:Virus Replication; D055815:Young Adult