title: Empirical Estimation of R0 for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta.
abstract: We consider the problem of estimating the basic reproduction number R0 from data on prevalence dynamics at the beginning of a disease outbreak. We derive discrete and continuous time models, some coefficients of which are to be fitted from data. We show that prevalence of the disease is sufficient to determine R0. We apply this method to chronic wasting disease spread in Alberta determining a range of possible R0 and their sensitivity to the probability of deer annual survival.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada; Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada; Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada.
authors.forename: Alex
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Potapov
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada.
authors.forename: Evelyn
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Merrill
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada; Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, 6909-116 St., Edmonton, AB, T6H 4P2, Canada.
authors.forename: Margo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pybus
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada; Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada; Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada.
authors.forename: Mark A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Lewis
mesh_terms: D000416:Alberta / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000662:veterinary; D003670:Deer; D036262:Empirical Research; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D034081:Wasting Disease, Chronic / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission