title: A Model for Predicting Spring Emergence of Monochamus saltuarius (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) from Korean white pine, Pinus koraiensis.
abstract: Monochamus saltuarius Gebler is a vector that transmits the pine wood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, to Korean white pine, Pinus koraiensis, in Korea. To reduce the damage caused by this nematode in pine forests, timely control measures are needed to suppress the cerambycid beetle population. This study sought to construct a forecasting model to predict beetle emergence based on spring temperature. Logs of Korean white pine were infested with M. saltuarius in 2009, and the infested logs were overwintered. In February 2010, infested logs were then moved into incubators held at constant temperature conditions of 16, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30 or 34°C until all adults had emerged. The developmental rate of the beetles was estimated by linear and nonlinear equations and a forecasting model for emergence of the beetle was constructed by pooling data based on normalized developmental rate. The lower threshold temperature for development was 8.3°C. The forecasting model relatively well predicted the emergence pattern of M. saltuarius collected from four areas in northern Republic of Korea. The median emergence dates predicted by the model were 2.2-5.9 d earlier than the observed median dates.
authors.affiliation: Division of Forest Insect Pests and Diseases, Korea Forest Research Institute, 57 Hoegiro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 130-712, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Chan Sik
authors.initials: CS
authors.lastname: Jung
authors.affiliation: Division of Forest Insect Pests and Diseases, Korea Forest Research Institute, 57 Hoegiro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 130-712, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Sang-Hyun
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Koh
authors.affiliation: Division of Forest Insect Pests and Diseases, Korea Forest Research Institute, 57 Hoegiro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 130-712, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Youngwoo
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Nam
authors.affiliation: Agricultural Research Institute for Climate Change, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, 281 Ayeon-ro, Jeju 690-150, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Jeong Joon
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Ahn
authors.affiliation: Division of Forest Insect Pests and Diseases, Korea Forest Research Institute, 57 Hoegiro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 130-712, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Cha Young
authors.initials: CY
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Division of Forest Insect Pests and Diseases, Korea Forest Research Institute, 57 Hoegiro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 130-712, Republic of Korea. wchoi71@korea.kr choi_71@hanmail.net.
authors.forename: Won I L
authors.initials: WI
authors.lastname: Choi
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001517:Coleoptera / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D028223:Pinus / Q000254:growth & development; D011157:Population Dynamics; D056910:Republic of Korea; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature
keywords: Monochamus saltuarius; forecasting model; lower developmental threshold temperature; phenology; pine wilt disease