title: Modelling the species jump: towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas.
abstract: The scientific understanding of the driving factors behind zoonotic and pandemic influenzas is hampered by complex interactions between viruses, animal hosts and humans. This complexity makes identifying influenza viruses of high zoonotic or pandemic risk, before they emerge from animal populations, extremely difficult and uncertain. As a first step towards assessing zoonotic risk of influenza, we demonstrate a risk assessment framework to assess the relative likelihood of influenza A viruses, circulating in animal populations, making the species jump into humans. The intention is that such a risk assessment framework could assist decision-makers to compare multiple influenza viruses for zoonotic potential and hence to develop appropriate strain-specific control measures. It also provides a first step towards showing proof of principle for an eventual pandemic risk model. We show that the spatial and temporal epidemiology is as important in assessing the risk of an influenza A species jump as understanding the innate molecular capability of the virus. We also demonstrate data deficiencies that need to be addressed in order to consistently combine both epidemiological and molecular virology data into a risk assessment framework.
authors.affiliation: Royal Veterinary College , London, UK ; Animal and Plant Health Agency , New Haw, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: A A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Hill
authors.affiliation: Animal and Plant Health Agency , New Haw, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Dewé
authors.affiliation: Animal and Plant Health Agency , New Haw, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Kosmider
authors.affiliation: Royal Veterinary College , London, UK ; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations , Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Von Dobschuetz
authors.affiliation: Instituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venizie , Padua, Italy.
authors.forename: O
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Munoz
authors.affiliation: Animal and Plant Health Agency , New Haw, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hanna
authors.affiliation: Instituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venizie , Padua, Italy.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Fusaro
authors.affiliation: Instituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venizie , Padua, Italy.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: De Nardi
authors.affiliation: Animal and Plant Health Agency , New Haw, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Howard
authors.affiliation: Royal Veterinary College , London, UK.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Stevens
authors.affiliation: Animal and Plant Health Agency , New Haw, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kelly
authors.affiliation: RIVM, Bilthoven , The Netherlands.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Havelaar
authors.affiliation: Royal Veterinary College , London, UK.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Stärk
keywords: avian influenza; risk assessment; zoonoses