title: Statistically tested comparisons of the accuracy of forecasting methods for age-specific and sex-specific mortality and life expectancy.
abstract: Although there are continuing developments in the methods for forecasting mortality, there are few comparisons of the accuracy of the forecasts. The subject of the statistical validity of these comparisons, which is essential to demographic forecasting, has all but been ignored. We introduce Friedman's test statistics to examine whether the differences in point and interval forecast accuracies are statistically significant between methods. We introduce the Nemenyi test statistic to identify which methods give results that are statistically significantly different from others. Using sex-specific and age-specific data from 20 countries, we apply these two test statistics to examine the forecast accuracy obtained from several principal component methods, which can be categorized into coherent and non-coherent forecasting methods.
authors.affiliation: a Australian National University.|b University of Southampton.
authors.forename: Han Lin
authors.initials: HL
authors.lastname: Shang
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D003710:Demography / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality; D011157:Population Dynamics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012107:Research Design; D012737:Sex Factors
keywords: Friedman's test statistics; Hyndman–Ullah method; Lee–Carter method; Lee–Miller method; Nemenyi's test statistics; functional time-series forecasting; interval score; mean absolute forecast error