title: The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise.
abstract: Sea-level rise can threaten the long-term sustainability of coastal communities and valuable ecosystems such as coral reefs, salt marshes and mangroves. Mangrove forests have the capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise and to avoid inundation through vertical accretion of sediments, which allows them to maintain wetland soil elevations suitable for plant growth. The Indo-Pacific region holds most of the world's mangrove forests, but sediment delivery in this region is declining, owing to anthropogenic activities such as damming of rivers. This decline is of particular concern because the Indo-Pacific region is expected to have variable, but high, rates of future sea-level rise. Here we analyse recent trends in mangrove surface elevation changes across the Indo-Pacific region using data from a network of surface elevation table instruments. We find that sediment availability can enable mangrove forests to maintain rates of soil-surface elevation gain that match or exceed that of sea-level rise, but for 69 per cent of our study sites the current rate of sea-level rise exceeded the soil surface elevation gain. We also present a model based on our field data, which suggests that mangrove forests at sites with low tidal range and low sediment supply could be submerged as early as 2070.
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4072, Australia.|Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Catherine E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Lovelock
authors.affiliation: Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, United States Geological Survey, Maryland 20708, USA.
authors.forename: Donald R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Cahoon
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, 1 Arts Link, Singapore 117570, Singapore.
authors.forename: Daniel A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Friess
authors.affiliation: Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, United States Geological Survey, Maryland 20708, USA.
authors.forename: Glenn R
authors.initials: GR
authors.lastname: Guntenspergen
authors.affiliation: National Wetlands Research Center, United States Geological Survey, Louisiana 70506, USA.
authors.forename: Ken W
authors.initials: KW
authors.lastname: Krauss
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4072, Australia.|Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4072, Australia.|Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK.
authors.forename: Ruth
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Reef
authors.affiliation: School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Wollongong, Wollongong 2522, Australia.
authors.forename: Kerrylee
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Rogers
authors.affiliation: Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Megan L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Saunders
authors.affiliation: The Institute for Marine Research and Observation, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, Bali 82251, Indonesia.
authors.forename: Frida
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Sidik
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4072, Australia.|National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton 3251, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Swales
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney 2109, Australia.
authors.forename: Neil
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Saintilan
authors.affiliation: University of Science, Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
authors.forename: Le Xuan
authors.initials: le X
authors.lastname: Thuyen
authors.affiliation: University of Science, Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.|International Crane Foundation, Wisconsin 53913, USA.
authors.forename: Tran
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Triet
mesh_terms: D000531:Altitude; D032407:Avicennia / Q000502:physiology*; D057231:Climate Change / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D065928:Forests; D019015:Geologic Sediments / Q000032:analysis; D019156:Indian Ocean; D010140:Pacific Ocean; D043982:Rhizophoraceae / Q000502:physiology*; D012623:Seawater / Q000032:analysis*; D012987:Soil; D053833:Wetlands
chemical_list: D012987:Soil