title: Modelling marine protected areas: insights and hurdles.
abstract: Models provide useful insights into conservation and resource management issues and solutions. Their use to date has highlighted conditions under which no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) may help us to achieve the goals of ecosystem-based management by reducing pressures, and where they might fail to achieve desired goals. For example, static reserve designs are unlikely to achieve desired objectives when applied to mobile species or when compromised by climate-related ecosystem restructuring and range shifts. Modelling tools allow planners to explore a range of options, such as basing MPAs on the presence of dynamic oceanic features, and to evaluate the potential future impacts of alternative interventions compared with 'no-action' counterfactuals, under a range of environmental and development scenarios. The modelling environment allows the analyst to test if indicators and management strategies are robust to uncertainties in how the ecosystem (and the broader human-ecosystem combination) operates, including the direct and indirect ecological effects of protection. Moreover, modelling results can be presented at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and relative to ecological, economic and social objectives. This helps to reveal potential 'surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses. Using illustrative examples, this paper briefly covers the history of the use of simulation models for evaluating MPA options, and discusses their utility and limitations for informing protected area management in the marine realm.
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004, Australia beth.fulton@csiro.au.
authors.forename: Elizabeth A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Fulton
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004, Australia.
authors.forename: Nicholas J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Bax
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
authors.forename: Rodrigo H
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9787-338X
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Bustamante
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Digital Productivity, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004, Australia.
authors.forename: Jeffrey M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Dambacher
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Dichmont
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Piers K
authors.initials: PK
authors.lastname: Dunstan
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Digital Productivity, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Keith R
authors.initials: KR
authors.lastname: Hayes
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004, Australia.
authors.forename: Alistair J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Hobday
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
authors.forename: Roland
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Pitcher
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, PO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
authors.forename: Éva E
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4740-4200
authors.initials: ÉE
authors.lastname: Plagányi
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Box 355020, Seattle, WA 98195-5020, USA.
authors.forename: André E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Punt
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire Ressources Halieutiques, Centre Manche - Mer du Nord, 150, quai Gambetta, BP 699, 62321 Boulogne sur Mer Cedex, France.
authors.forename: Marie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Savina-Rolland
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004, Australia.
authors.forename: Anthony D M
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point, Tasmania 7004, Australia.
authors.forename: David C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Smith
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D057894:Coral Reefs; D017753:Ecosystem; D006801:Humans; D008386:Marine Biology; D008954:Models, Biological
keywords: MPA; counterfactual; modelling; spatial management