title: Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health.
abstract: Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a "business as usual scenario", that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.
authors.affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. RGarland@csir.co.za.|Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North West University, Potchefstroom 2520, South Africa. RGarland@csir.co.za.
authors.forename: Rebecca M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Garland
authors.affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. matooanemr@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Mamopeli
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Matooane
authors.affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. FEngelbrecht@csir.co.za.|School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa. FEngelbrecht@csir.co.za.
authors.forename: Francois A
authors.initials: FA
authors.lastname: Engelbrecht
authors.affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. m.m.bopape@reading.ac.uk.|Meteorology Department, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK. m.m.bopape@reading.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Mary-Jane M
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Bopape
authors.affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. WALandman@csir.co.za.|Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0028, South Africa. WALandman@csir.co.za.
authors.forename: Willem A
authors.initials: WA
authors.lastname: Landman
authors.affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. MNaidoo4@csir.co.za.
authors.forename: Mogesh
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Naidoo
authors.affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. JHvdMerwe@csir.co.za.
authors.forename: Jacobus van der
authors.initials: Jv
authors.lastname: Merwe
authors.affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. cwright@mrc.ac.za.|Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0028, South Africa. cwright@mrc.ac.za.
authors.forename: Caradee Y
authors.initials: CY
authors.lastname: Wright
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa; D057231:Climate Change; D005544:Forecasting; D006358:Hot Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D011634:Public Health; D012306:Risk
keywords: Africa; climate change; climate services; human health; regional climate modelling