title: Livestock Production in the UK in the 21(st) Century: A Perfect Storm Averted?
abstract: There is a school of thought that future demand for meat and other farm animal products is unsustainable for several reasons, including greenhouse gas emissions, especially from ruminants; standards of farm animal health and welfare, especially when farm animals are kept intensively; efficiency of conversion by livestock of solar energy into (human) food, particularly by pigs and poultry; water availability and usage for all types of agricultural production, including livestock; and human health and consumption of meat, eggs and milk. Demand for meat is forecast to rise as a result of global population growth and increasing affluence. These issues buttress an impending perfect storm of food shortages, scarce water and insufficient energy, which is likely to coincide with global population reaching about 9 billion people in 2030 (pace Beddington). This paper examines global demand for animal products, the narrative of 'sustainable intensification' and the implications of each for the future of farm animal welfare. In the UK, we suggest that, though non-ruminant farming may become unsustainable, ruminant agriculture will continue to prosper because cows, sheep and goats utilize grass and other herbage that cannot be consumed directly by humans, especially on land that is unsuitable for other purposes. However, the demand for meat and other livestock-based food is often for pork, eggs and chicken from grain-fed pigs and poultry. The consequences of such a perfect storm are beginning to be incorporated in long-term business planning by retailers and others. Nevertheless, marketing sustainable animal produce will require considerable innovation and flair in public and private policies if marketing messages are to be optimized and consumer behaviour modified.
authors.affiliation: The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, AL9 7TA, UK. cmwathes@rvc.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Christopher M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Wathes
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, University of Exeter, Amory Building, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK. H.Buller@exeter.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Henry
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Buller
authors.affiliation: The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, AL9 7TA, UK. heather@hcmconsulting.org.uk.
authors.forename: Heather
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Maggs
authors.affiliation: The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, AL9 7TA, UK. reprovet_uk@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Madeleine L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Campbell
keywords: livestock; sustainability; welfare