title: Projecting future temperature-related mortality in three largest Australian cities.
abstract: We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted.
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Queensland 4006, Australia. Electronic address: y.guo1@uq.edu.au.
authors.forename: Yuming
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Queensland 4006, Australia.
authors.forename: Shanshan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: NSW Department of Industry, Skills and Regional Development, WaggaWagga Agricultural Institute, New South Wales 2650, WaggaWagga, Australia.
authors.forename: De Li
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Ecosystem Sciences, CSIRO, Melbourne, Victoria 3190, Australia.
authors.forename: Dong
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Queensland 4006, Australia.
authors.forename: Gail
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland 4059, Australia.
authors.forename: Shilu
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tong
mesh_terms: D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D001831:Body Temperature; D002947:Cities; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D003080:Cold Temperature; D005544:Forecasting; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012621:Seasons
keywords: Climate change; Mortality; Projection; Temperature