The potential distribution of Bactrocera dorsalis: considering phenology and irrigation patterns.
A species in the Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) complex was detected in Kenya during 2003 and classified as Bactrocera invadens Drew, Tsuruta & White. Having spread rapidly throughout Africa, it threatens agriculture due to crop damage and loss of market access. In a recent revision of the B. dorsalis complex, B. invadens was incorporated into the species B. dorsalis. The potential distribution of B. dorsalis has been previously modelled. However, previous models were based on presence data and did not incorporate information on the seasonal phenology of B. dorsalis, nor on the possible influence that irrigation may have on its distribution. Methyl eugenol-baited traps were used to collect B. dorsalis in Africa. Seasonal phenology data, measured as fly abundance throughout the year, was related to each location's climate to infer climatic growth response parameters. These functions were used along with African distribution records and development studies to fit the niche model for B. dorsalis, using independent global distribution records outside Africa for model validation. Areas at greatest risk of invasion by B. dorsalis are South and Central America, Mexico, southernmost USA, parts of the Mediterranean coast, parts of Southern and Eastern Australia and New Zealand's North Island. Under irrigation, most of Africa and Australia appear climatically suitable.
Department of Conservation Ecology and Entomology,Faculty of AgriSciences,Stellenbosch University,Private Bag X1,Matieland 7602,South Africa.
M
M
De Villiers
Citrus Research International,Department of Conservation Ecology and Entomology,Faculty of AgriSciences,Stellenbosch University,P.O. Box 2201,Matieland 7602,South Africa.
V
V
Hattingh
CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences and Biosecurity Flagship,GPO Box 1700,Acton,Canberra,ACT 2601,Australia.
D J
DJ
Kriticos
European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation,Paris,France.
S
S
Brunel
CIRAD,Persyst,UPR HortSys,34398 Montpellier,France.
J-F
JF
Vayssières
Université d'Abomey Calavi,Faculté des Sciences Agronomiques (FSA),03BP2819 Cotonou,Benin.
A
A
Sinzogan
Department of Animal Biology & Conservation Science,University of Ghana,Box LG. 67,Legon-Accra,Ghana.
M K
MK
Billah
International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology,P.O. Box 30772-00100,Nairobi,Kenya.
S A
SA
Mohamed
Department of Crop Science and Production,Sokoine University of Agriculture,Box 3005,Chuo Kikuu,Morogoro,Tanzania.
M
M
Mwatawala
Agricultural Research Corporation,Crop Protection Research Centre,Entomology Section,P.O. Box 126,Wad Madani,Sudan.
H
H
Abdelgader
Department of Crop Protection,Faculty of Agricultural Sciences,University of Gezira,Wad Madani,P.O. Box 20,Sudan.
F E E
FE
Salah
Invertebrate Unit,Royal Museum for Central Africa,Leuvensesteenweg 13,B-3080 Tervuren,Belgium.
M
M
De Meyer
D000349:Africa; D000383:Agriculture; D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density; D033621:Tephritidae / Q000502:physiology*
Africa; Bactrocera invadens; Bactrocera papayae; Bactrocera philippinensis; CLIMEX; climate; distribution; invasion; seasonal phenology