Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation.
Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes.
British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK james.pearce-higgins@bto.org.
James W
JW
Pearce-Higgins
British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK.
Nancy
N
Ockendon
British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.
David J
DJ
Baker
IUCN Global Species Programme, 219c Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
Jamie
J
Carr
United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
Elizabeth C
EC
White
Cambridge Conservation Initiative, c/o Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1AG, UK.
Rosamunde E A
RE
Almond
Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
Tatsuya
T
Amano
Fauna and Flora International, Jupiter House, Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2JD, UK.
Esther
E
Bertram
RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, RSPB, The Lodge, Sandy, Beds SG19 2DL, UK.
Richard B
RB
Bradbury
Fauna and Flora International, Jupiter House, Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2JD, UK.
Cassie
C
Bradley
BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Cambridge CB3 0NA, UK.
Stuart H M
SH
Butchart
United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
Nathalie
N
Doswald
IUCN Global Species Programme, 219c Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK Department of Botany and Zoology, University of Stellenbosch, P/Bag X1, Matieland, 7602 Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Wendy
W
Foden
Fauna and Flora International, Jupiter House, Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2JD, UK.
David J C
DJ
Gill
Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, RSPB, The Lodge, Sandy, Beds SG19 2DL, UK.
Rhys E
RE
Green
Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
William J
WJ
Sutherland
Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK.
Edmund V J
EV
Tanner
D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D005843:Geography; D010944:Plants; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011891:Rain; D013696:Temperature
biodiversity; climate change; climatic limiting factors; energy–water hypothesis; latitudinal variation