Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon.
Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km(2) yr(-1) in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative 'Sustainability' scenario in which we envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km(2) yr(-1)) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation - in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO2 - even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance.
Earth System Science Center (CCST), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), Av. dos Astronautas 1758, São José dos Campos, CEP 12227-010, SP, Brazil.
Ana Paula Dutra
AP
Aguiar
Research and Postgraduate Coordination, Emilio Goeldi Museum of Pará (MPEG), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), Av. Magalhães Barata 376, Belém, CEP 66040-170, PA, Brazil.
Ima Célia Guimarães
IC
Vieira
Earth System Science Center (CCST), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), Av. dos Astronautas 1758, São José dos Campos, CEP 12227-010, SP, Brazil.
Talita Oliveira
TO
Assis
Earth System Science Center (CCST), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), Av. dos Astronautas 1758, São José dos Campos, CEP 12227-010, SP, Brazil.
Eloi L
EL
Dalla-Nora
Earth System Science Center (CCST), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), Av. dos Astronautas 1758, São José dos Campos, CEP 12227-010, SP, Brazil.
Peter Mann
PM
Toledo
Earth System Science Center (CCST), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), Av. dos Astronautas 1758, São José dos Campos, CEP 12227-010, SP, Brazil.
Roberto Araújo Oliveira
RA
Santos-Junior
Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA), Parque Estação Biológica - PqEB s/n°, Brasília, CEP 70770-901, DF, Brazil.|Center for Environmental Studies and Research (NEPAM), State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Cidade Universitária Zeferino Vaz, Campinas, CEP 13083-970, SP, Brazil.
Mateus
M
Batistella
Amazon Regional Center (CRA), Brazilian Institute for Space Research (INPE), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), Parque de Ciência e Tecnologia do Guamá, Av. Perimetral 2651, Belém, CEP 66077-830, PA, Brazil.
Andrea Santos
AS
Coelho
Center for Environmental Studies and Research (NEPAM), State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Cidade Universitária Zeferino Vaz, Campinas, CEP 13083-970, SP, Brazil.
Elza Kawakami
EK
Savaget
Tropical Ecosystems and Environmental Sciences Group (TREES), Remote Sensing Division, Brazilian Institute for Space Research (INPE), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), Av dos Astronautas 1758, São José dos Campos, CEP 12227-010, SP, Brazil.
Luiz Eduardo Oliveira Cruz
LE
Aragão
Higher Education Improvement Coordination (CAPES), Ministry of Education, Setor Bancário Norte, Quadra 2, Bloco L, Lote 06, Brasília, CEP 70040-020, DF, Brazil.
Carlos Afonso
CA
Nobre
Earth System Science Center (CCST), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI), Av. dos Astronautas 1758, São José dos Campos, CEP 12227-010, SP, Brazil.
Jean Pierre H
JP
Ometto
D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D001938:Brazil; D002244:Carbon / Q000032:analysis*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D065928:Forests
D000393:Air Pollutants; D002244:Carbon
Brazilian Amazon; CO2 emissions; deforestation; forest degradation; forest transition; scenarios; secondary vegetation; sustainability