Cost of inaction on sugar-sweetened beverage consumption: implications for obesity in South Africa.
To estimate the effect of increased sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption on future adult obesity prevalence in South Africa in the absence of preventive measures.



A model was constructed to simulate the effect of a 2·4 % annual increase in SSB consumption on obesity prevalence. The model computed the change in energy intake assuming a compounding increase in SSB consumption. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the 2012 South African National Income Dynamics Survey to the log-normal distribution and shifting the mean values.



Over the past decade the prevalence of obesity and related non-communicable diseases has increased in South Africa, as have the sales and availability of SSB. Soft drink sales in South Africa are projected to grow between 2012 and 2017 at an annual compounded growth rate of 2·4 % in the absence of preventive measures to curb consumption.



A 2·4 % annual growth in SSB sales alongside population growth and ageing will result in an additional 1 287 000 obese adults in South Africa by 2017, 22 % of which will be due to increased SSB consumption.



In order to meet the South African target of reducing the number of people who are obese and/or overweight by 10 % by 2020, the country cannot afford to delay implementing effective population-wide interventions. In the face of plans to increase growth of SSB, the country will soon face even greater challenges in overcoming obesity and related non-communicable diseases.
1PRICELESS SA-MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt),School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences,University of the Witwatersrand,Office 231,2nd floor,Wits Education Campus,27 St Andrews Road,Parktown,Johannesburg,South Africa 2193.
Aviva
A
Tugendhaft
1PRICELESS SA-MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt),School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences,University of the Witwatersrand,Office 231,2nd floor,Wits Education Campus,27 St Andrews Road,Parktown,Johannesburg,South Africa 2193.
Mercy
M
Manyema
2School of Population Health,University of Queensland,Brisbane,QLD,Australia.
Lennert J
LJ
Veerman
1PRICELESS SA-MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt),School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences,University of the Witwatersrand,Office 231,2nd floor,Wits Education Campus,27 St Andrews Road,Parktown,Johannesburg,South Africa 2193.
Lumbwe
L
Chola
3Population Health,Health Systems and Innovation,Human Sciences Research Council,Cape Town,South Africa.
Demetre
D
Labadarios
1PRICELESS SA-MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt),School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences,University of the Witwatersrand,Office 231,2nd floor,Wits Education Campus,27 St Andrews Road,Parktown,Johannesburg,South Africa 2193.
Karen J
KJ
Hofman
D002253:Carbonated Beverages / Q000191:economics*; D000073417:Dietary Sugars; D006801:Humans; D064427:Nutritive Sweeteners; D009765:Obesity / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology
D000073417:Dietary Sugars; D064427:Nutritive Sweeteners
Cost; Modelling; Obesity; South Africa; Sugar-sweetened beverages