Development and feasibility of a personalized, interactive risk calculator for knee osteoarthritis.
BACKGROUND
The incidence of knee osteoarthritis (OA) is rising. While several risk factors have been associated with the development of knee OA, this information is not readily accessible to those at risk for osteoarthritis. Risk calculators have been developed for several prevalent chronic conditions but not for OA. Using published evidence on established risk factors, we developed an interactive, personalized knee OA risk calculator (OA Risk C) and conducted a pilot study to evaluate its acceptability and feasibility.


METHODS
We used the Osteoarthritis Policy (OAPol) Model, a validated, state-transition simulation of the natural history and management of OA, to generate data for OA Risk C. Risk estimates for calculator users were based on a set of demographic and clinical factors (age, sex, race/ethnicity, obesity) and select risk factors (family history of knee OA, occupational exposure, and history of knee injury). OA Risk C presents personalized risk of knee OA in several ways to maximize understanding among a wide range of users. We conducted a study of 45 subjects in a primary care setting to establish the feasibility and acceptability of the OA risk calculator. Pilot study participants were asked several questions regarding ease of use, clarity of presentation, and clarity of the graphical representation of their risk. These questions used a five-level agreement scale ranging from strongly disagree to strongly agree.


RESULTS
OA Risk C depicts information about users' risk of symptomatic knee OA in 5 year intervals. Study participants estimated their lifetime risk at 38 %, while their actual lifetime risk, as estimated by OA Risk C, was 25 %. Eighty-four percent of pilot study participants reported that OA Risk C was easy to understand, and 89 % agreed that the graphs depicting their risk were clear and comprehensible.


CONCLUSIONS
We have developed a personalized, computer-based OA risk calculator that is easy to use. OA Risk C may be utilized to estimate individuals' knee OA risk and to deliver educational and behavioral interventions focused on osteoarthritis risk reduction.
Orthopaedic and Arthritis Center for Outcomes Research, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, 75 Francis St, BC 4-016, 02115, Boston, MA, USA. elosina@partners.org.|Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02118, USA. elosina@partners.org.|Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 02115, USA. elosina@partners.org.
Elena
E
Losina
Orthopaedic and Arthritis Center for Outcomes Research, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, 75 Francis St, BC 4-016, 02115, Boston, MA, USA. kristina.klara@gmail.com.
Kristina
K
Klara
Orthopaedic and Arthritis Center for Outcomes Research, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, 75 Francis St, BC 4-016, 02115, Boston, MA, USA. griffinmichl@gmail.com.
Griffin L
GL
Michl
Orthopaedic and Arthritis Center for Outcomes Research, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, 75 Francis St, BC 4-016, 02115, Boston, MA, USA. jcollins13@partners.org.|Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 02115, USA. jcollins13@partners.org.
Jamie E
JE
Collins
Orthopaedic and Arthritis Center for Outcomes Research, Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, 75 Francis St, BC 4-016, 02115, Boston, MA, USA. jnkatz@partners.org.|Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 02115, USA. jnkatz@partners.org.|Division of Rheumatology, Immunology and Allergy, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, 02115, USA. jnkatz@partners.org.
Jeffrey N
JN
Katz
D000328:Adult; D005240:Feasibility Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D020370:Osteoarthritis, Knee; D010865:Pilot Projects; D011320:Primary Health Care; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods