Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales.
Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we investigate the recent impact of multiple environmental changes on European farmland birds, here focusing on climate change and land use change. We analyze more than 800 time series from 18 countries spanning the past two decades. Analysis of long-term population growth rates documents simultaneous responses that can be attributed to both climate change and land-use change, including long-term increases in populations of hot-dwelling species and declines in long-distance migrants and farmland specialists. In contrast, analysis of annual growth rates yield novel insights into the potential mechanisms driving long-term climate induced change. In particular, we find that birds are affected by winter, spring, and summer conditions depending on the distinct breeding phenology that corresponds to their migratory strategy. Birds in general benefit from higher temperatures or higher primary productivity early on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach will be of general use when high-resolution time series are available in large-scale biodiversity surveys.
Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Peter Søgaard
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2621-378X
PS
Jørgensen
Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F) and Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt (Main), Germany.|Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe Universität, Max-von-Laue-Straße 9, 60438, Frankfurt (Main), Germany.
Katrin
K
Böhning-Gaese
Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Kasper
K
Thorup
Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Anders P
AP
Tøttrup
Museum & Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Wilcza 64, 00-679, Warszawa, Poland.
Przemysław
P
Chylarecki
UMR7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, CRBPO CP51, 55 Rue Buffon, 75005, Paris, France.
Frédéric
F
Jiguet
Zoological Unit, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, P. O. Box 17, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.
Aleksi
A
Lehikoinen
British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU, UK.
David G
DG
Noble
Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology, Faculty of Science, Palacký University Olomouc, 17. listopadu 50, 771 43, Olomouc, Czech Republic.
Jiri
J
Reif
Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, CH-6204, Sempach, Switzerland.
Hans
H
Schmid
Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, P.O. Box 6521, 6503 GA, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.|Department of Animal Ecology, Institute for Wetland and Water Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, Toernooiveld 1, 6500 GL, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Chris
C
van Turnhout
BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Girton Road, Cambridge, CB3 0NA, UK.
Ian J
IJ
Burfield
Department of Animal Ecology, Institute for Wetland and Water Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, Toernooiveld 1, 6500 GL, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.|Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, P.O. Box 6521, 6503 GA, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.|European Bird Census Council (EBCC), P.O. Box 6521 6503 GA, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Ruud
R
Foppen
Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology, Faculty of Science, Palacký University Olomouc, 17. listopadu 50, 771 43, Olomouc, Czech Republic.|Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme, Czech Society for Ornithology, Na Bělidle 252/34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic.
Petr
P
Voříšek
Statistics Netherlands, Post Office Box 24500, The Hague, 2490 HA, The Netherlands.
Arco
A
van Strien
Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, SG19 2DL, UK.
Richard D
RD
Gregory
Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Carsten
C
Rahbek
D000383:Agriculture; D025041:Animal Migration; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D001717:Birds; D057231:Climate Change; D004032:Diet; D005060:Europe; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density; D012098:Reproduction; D012621:Seasons
citizen science; climate change; farmland birds; global change attribution; land-use change; multiple temporal scales; multiscale inference; population time series