One-hour plasma glucose as a predictor of the development of Type 2 diabetes in Japanese adults.
To test the hypothesis that 1-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test is a better predictor of the development of diabetes than 2-h plasma glucose, independently of indices of insulin secretion or action in Japanese adults.



A historical cohort study was conducted in 1445 Japanese workers who did not have diabetes. The association between 1-h plasma glucose and the development of Type 2 diabetes was analysed.



Overall, 95 of the study participants developed Type 2 diabetes during a mean follow-up of 4.5 years. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for 1-h plasma glucose for future diabetes [0.88 (95% CI 0.84-0.91)] was greater than that for 2-h plasma glucose [0.79 (95% CI 0.74-0.84)], and for insulinogenic [0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.78)] and disposition indices [0.79 (95% CI 0.74-0.84); P < 0.05]. Compared with the first quartile, the hazard ratio for future diabetes in the fourth quartile of 1-h plasma glucose was 42.5 [95% CI 5.7-315.2 (P < 0.05)] and the hazard ratio in the fourth quartile of 2-h plasma glucose was 4.4 [95% CI 1.8-10.8 (P < 0.05)], after adjustments for covariates including fasting plasma glucose. The significance of the elevated hazard ratio in the fourth quartile of 1-h plasma glucose was maintained after adjustments for 2-h plasma glucose, insulinogenic index or disposition index, whereas the elevation of the hazard ratio in the fourth quartile of 2-h plasma glucose was diminished and was no longer significant after adjustments for 1-h plasma glucose.



One-hour plasma glucose had a greater association with the future development of Type 2 diabetes than did 2-h plasma glucose, independently of oral glucose tolerance test-derived indices of insulin action in a Japanese population.
Department of Internal Medicine, Hokuriku Central Hospital, Toyama, Japan. ririoka@goo.jp.
R
R
Oka
Diabetes Centre, Aizawa Hospital, Matsumoto, Japan.
T
T
Aizawa
Department of Internal Medicine, Hokuriku Central Hospital, Toyama, Japan.
S
S
Miyamoto
Department of Internal Medicine, Kanazawa University Graduate School of Medical Science, Kanazawa, Japan.
T
T
Yoneda
Department of Internal Medicine, Kanazawa University Graduate School of Medical Science, Kanazawa, Japan.
M
M
Yamagishi
D000328:Adult; D044466:Asian People; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000208:ethnology; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D018149:Glucose Intolerance / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000208:ethnology; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D008297:Male; D011236:Prediabetic State / Q000097:blood* / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000208:ethnology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D013997:Time Factors
D001786:Blood Glucose