Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data.
Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon.
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
Chris
C
Geremia
Wildlife Health Program, Colorado Division of Parks and Wildlife, Fort Collins, Colorado, Colorado, United States of America.
Michael W
MW
Miller
Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
Jennifer A
JA
Hoeting
Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
Michael F
MF
Antolin
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
N Thompson
NT
Hobbs
D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003120:Colorado / Q000453:epidemiology; D003670:Deer / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D005843:Geography; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D015995:Prevalence; D017096:Prion Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012621:Seasons; D016019:Survival Analysis; D034081:Wasting Disease, Chronic / Q000453:epidemiology; D014959:Wyoming / Q000453:epidemiology