Impact of temperature variation between adjacent days on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease during April and July in urban and rural Hefei, China.
Previous studies have found that both high temperature and low temperature increase the risk of childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). However, little is known about whether temperature variation between neighboring days has any effects on childhood HFMD. A Poisson generalized linear regression model, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model, was applied to examine the relationship between temperature change and childhood HFMD in Hefei, China, from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2012. Temperature change was defined as the difference of current day's mean temperature and previous day's mean temperature. Late spring and early summer (April-July) were chosen as the main study period due to it having the highest childhood HFMD incidence. There was a statistical association between temperature change between neighboring days and childhood HFMD. The effects of temperature change on childhood HFMD increased below a temperature change of 0 °C (temperature drop). The temperature change has the greatest adverse effect on childhood HFMD at 7 days lag, with 4 % (95 % confidence interval 2-7 %) increase per 3 °C drop of temperature. Male children and urban children appeared to be more vulnerable to the effects of temperature change. Temperature change between adjacent days might be an alternative temperature indictor for exploring the temperature-HFMD relationship.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China.
Jian
J
Cheng
Department of Child and Maternal Health Care, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China.
Rui
R
Zhu
School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Brisbane, QLD, 4509, Australia.
Zhiwei
Z
Xu
Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Anhui province, Hefei, Anhui, 230061, China.
Jinju
J
Wu
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China.
Xu
X
Wang
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China.
Kesheng
K
Li
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China.
Liying
L
Wen
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China.
Huihui
H
Yang
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China. suhong5151@sina.com.
Hong
H
Su
D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006232:Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors
Childhood; Foot and mouth disease; Hand; Hefei; Temperature change