Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.
Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring.
Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, UK pirotta.enrico@gmail.com.
Enrico
E
Pirotta
Scottish Oceans Institute, East Sands, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 8LB, UK Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9LZ, UK.
John
J
Harwood
Lighthouse Field Station, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cromarty IV11 8YL, UK.
Paul M
PM
Thompson
Washington State University, 14204 Salmon Creek Avenue, Vancouver, WA 98686, USA.
Leslie
L
New
Lighthouse Field Station, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cromarty IV11 8YL, UK.
Barbara
B
Cheney
Scottish Oceans Institute, East Sands, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 8LB, UK.
Monica
M
Arso
Scottish Oceans Institute, East Sands, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 8LB, UK.
Philip S
PS
Hammond
Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9LZ, UK.
Carl
C
Donovan
Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, UK.
David
D
Lusseau
D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001522:Behavior, Animal / Q000502:physiology*; D050681:Bottle-Nosed Dolphin / Q000502:physiology*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D005260:Female; D006802:Human Activities; D009042:Motivation; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012767:Ships; D016019:Survival Analysis
behavioural response; human development; individual heterogeneity; individual-based modelling; management; population consequences of disturbance