Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.
Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.
CNRS USR 2936, Station d'Ecologie Expérimentale de Moulis, Moulis, France; CNRS, Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier, ENFA; UMR5174 EDB (Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique), Toulouse, France; Environmental and Sustainability Institute, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom.
Elvire
E
Bestion
CNRS, Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier, ENFA; UMR5174 EDB (Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique), Toulouse, France; Terrestrial Ecology Unit, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
Aimeric
A
Teyssier
CNRS USR 2936, Station d'Ecologie Expérimentale de Moulis, Moulis, France.
Murielle
M
Richard
CNRS USR 2936, Station d'Ecologie Expérimentale de Moulis, Moulis, France.
Jean
J
Clobert
CNRS, Université Toulouse III Paul Sabatier, ENFA; UMR5174 EDB (Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique), Toulouse, France.
Julien
J
Cote
D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D049628:Body Size; D057231:Climate Change; D052284:Clutch Size; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005260:Female; D005602:France; D006358:Hot Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects; D008018:Life Cycle Stages; D008116:Lizards / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D012098:Reproduction; D012306:Risk; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013312:Stress, Physiological; D016019:Survival Analysis