Dynamics of SI epidemic with a demographic Allee effect.
In this paper, we present an extended SI model of Hilker et al. (2009). In the presented model the birth rate and the death rate are both modeled as quadratic polynomials. This approach provides ample opportunity for taking into account the major contributors to an Allee effect and effectively captures species' differential susceptibility to the Allee effects. It is shown that, the behaviors (persistence or extinction) of the model solutions are characterized by the two essential threshold parameters λ0 and λ1 of the transmissibility λ and a threshold quantity μ(∗) of the disease pathogenicity μ. If λ<λ0, the model is bistable and a disease cannot invade from arbitrarily small introductions into the host population at the carrying capacity, while it persists when λ>λ0 and μ<μ(∗). When λ>λ1 and μ>μ(∗), the disease derives the host population to extinction with origin as the only global attractor. For the special cases of the model, verifiable conditions for host population persistence (with or without infected individuals) and host extinction are derived. Interestingly, we show that if the values of the parameters α and β of the extended model are restricted, then the two models are similar. Numerical simulations show how the parameter β affects the dynamics of the model with respect to the host population persistence and extinction.
Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Pretoria, South Africa. Electronic address: kunyasco@yahoo.com.
Salisu
S
Usaini
Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Pretoria, South Africa. Electronic address: roumen.anguelov@up.ac.za.
Roumen
R
Anguelov
Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Pretoria, South Africa. Electronic address: salisu.garba@up.ac.za.
Salisu M
SM
Garba
D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000401:mortality / Q000635:transmission; D003710:Demography; D058872:Epidemics; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics
Allee effect; Carrying capacity; Extinction; Persistence; Threshold