Breeding phenology and winter activity predict subsequent breeding success in a trans-global migratory seabird.
Inter-seasonal events are believed to connect and affect reproductive performance (RP) in animals. However, much remains unknown about such carry-over effects (COEs), in particular how behaviour patterns during highly mobile life-history stages, such as migration, affect RP. To address this question, we measured at-sea behaviour in a long-lived migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus) and obtained data for individual migration cycles over 5 years, by tracking with geolocator/immersion loggers, along with 6 years of RP data. We found that individual breeding and non-breeding phenology correlated with subsequent RP, with birds hyperactive during winter more likely to fail to reproduce. Furthermore, parental investment during one year influenced breeding success during the next, a COE reflecting the trade-off between current and future RP. Our results suggest that different life-history stages interact to influence RP in the next breeding season, so that behaviour patterns during winter may be important determinants of variation in subsequent fitness among individuals.
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK akikosho@gmail.com.
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Shoji
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada K1N 6N5 sarisbro@uottawa.ca.
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Aris-Brosou
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
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Culina
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
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Fayet
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
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Kirk
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
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Padget
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
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Juarez-Martinez
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
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Boyle
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
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Nakata
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
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Perrins
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK tim.guilford@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
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Guilford
D025041:Animal Migration / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds / Q000502:physiology*; D008018:Life Cycle Stages; D012098:Reproduction / Q000502:physiology*; D012621:Seasons; D013686:Telemetry
adaptive boosting; machine learning; migration; multi-event capture–mark–recapture model; phenology