Predictors of 10-year smoking abstinence in smokers abstinent for 1 year after treatment.
OBJECTIVE
To identify factors predicting long-term relapse to smoking in people attending smoking treatment services who have maintained at least 1 year abstinence.


METHODS
Observational, prospective study with multiple logistic regression used to model predictors of relapse between 1 and 10 years from cessation using variables measured pre-cessation.


METHODS
Among smokers receiving behavioural support for cessation in a clinic in Spain, in some cases with nicotine patches or bupropion, 366 had remained abstinent after 1 year of follow-up and were included into the study.


METHODS
Predictive measures (disease history, psychological disorder, age of starting smoking, years of smoking, cigarette dependence and smoking cessation treatment used) were obtained at the time of the quit attempt, and 'failure' (defined as reported smoking, loss to follow-up, died or an expired air carbon monoxide reading of > 5 parts per million) was assessed 10 years later.


RESULTS
At follow-up, abstinence status was confirmed in 50.5% (n = 185) of participants, while 21.0% (n = 77) reported that they had resumed smoking, and 28.5% (n = 104) were lost to follow-up (also counted as having resumed smoking). In the multiple regression model, the main factor that predicted relapse had a psychological disorder (odds ratio = 1.85, 95% confidence interval = 1.13-3.05; P < 0.02).


CONCLUSIONS
Having a psychological disorder at the time of stopping smoking is a risk factor for relapse to smoking, even after more than 1 year of abstinence.
Unidad Médico Quirúrgica de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío, Seville, Spain.
Francisco Javier
FJ
Álvarez Gutiérrez
Unidad Médico Quirúrgica de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío, Seville, Spain.
Marta
M
Ferrer Galván
Unidad Médico Quirúrgica de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío, Seville, Spain.
Ana
A
Ruiz Bernal
Unidad Médico Quirúrgica de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío, Seville, Spain.
Juan Francisco
JF
Medina Gallardo
Unidad Médico Quirúrgica de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío, Seville, Spain.
Beatriz
B
Romero Romero
Statistics Department Asma Unit, Seville, Spain.
Antonia
A
Sáez Díaz
Unidad Médico Quirúrgica de Enfermedades Respiratorias, Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío, Seville, Spain.
Auxiliadora
A
Romero Falcón
D000328:Adult; D016642:Bupropion / Q000627:therapeutic use; D018765:Dopamine Uptake Inhibitors / Q000627:therapeutic use; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D059012:Lost to Follow-Up; D008297:Male; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012008:Recurrence; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D013030:Spain; D013997:Time Factors; D061485:Tobacco Use Cessation Devices; D014029:Tobacco Use Disorder / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000628:therapy*
D018765:Dopamine Uptake Inhibitors; D016642:Bupropion
Long-term abstinence from smoking; predictors of smoking cessation; smoking