Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic.
In the current study, a comprehensive, data driven, mathematical model for cholera transmission in Haiti is presented. Along with the inclusion of short cycle human-to-human transmission and long cycle human-to-environment and environment-to-human transmission, this novel dynamic model incorporates both the reported cholera incidence and remote sensing data from the Ouest Department of Haiti between 2010 to 2014. The model has separate compartments for infectious individuals that include different levels of infectivity to reflect the distribution of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases in the population. The environmental compartment, which serves as a source of exposure to toxigenic V. cholerae, is also modeled separately based on the biology of causative bacterium, the shedding of V. cholerae O1 by humans into the environment, as well as the effects of precipitation and water temperature on the concentration and survival of V. cholerae in aquatic reservoirs. Although the number of reported cholera cases has declined compared to the initial outbreak in 2010, the increase in the number of susceptible population members and the presence of toxigenic V. cholerae in the environment estimated by the model indicate that without further improvements to drinking water and sanitation infrastructures, intermittent cholera outbreaks are likely to continue in Haiti.
Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions and College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
Alexander
A
Kirpich
Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America; Department of Environmental and Global Health, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
Thomas A
TA
Weppelmann
Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions and College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
Yang
Y
Yang
Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America; Department of Environmental and Global Health, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
Afsar
A
Ali
Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America; Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
J Glenn
JG
Morris
Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions and College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
Ira M
IM
Longini
D002771:Cholera / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D060766:Drinking Water; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D058872:Epidemics; D006205:Haiti / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014734:Vibrio cholerae / Q000502:physiology
D060766:Drinking Water