Lost in space: design of experiments and scientific exploration in a Hogarth Universe.
A Hogarth, or 'wicked', universe is an irregular environment generating data to support erroneous beliefs. Here, we argue that development scientists often work in such a universe. We demonstrate that exploring these multidimensional spaces using small experiments guided by scientific intuition alone, gives rise to an illusion of validity and a misplaced confidence in that scientific intuition. By contrast, design of experiments (DOE) permits the efficient mapping of such complex, multidimensional spaces. We describe simulation tools that enable research scientists to explore these spaces in relative safety.
Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK. Electronic address: dennis.lendrem@newcastle.ac.uk.
Dennis W
DW
Lendrem
Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.
B Clare
BC
Lendrem
Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
David
D
Woods
Centre for Bioengineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.
Ruth
R
Rowland-Jones
GlaxoSmithKline, King of Prussia, PA, USA.
Matthew
M
Burke
Centre for Medicines Research, GlaxoSmithKline, Stevenage, UK.
Marion
M
Chatfield
Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.
John D
JD
Isaacs
Centre for Medicines Research, GlaxoSmithKline, Stevenage, UK.
Martin R
MR
Owen
D003198:Computer Simulation; D004777:Environment; D006801:Humans; D012107:Research Design; D012586:Science / Q000379:methods*