title: Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment.
abstract: Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981-2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature-mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI'14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%-7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%-2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050-accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend-show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments.
authors.affiliation: International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200-MD Maastricht, The Netherlands. m.huynen@maastrichtuniversity.nl.
authors.forename: Maud M T E
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Huynen
authors.affiliation: International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200-MD Maastricht, The Netherlands. p.martens@maastrichtuniversity.nl.
authors.forename: Pim
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Martens
mesh_terms: D000064:Acclimatization; D057231:Climate Change; D003080:Cold Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005544:Forecasting; D062489:Health Impact Assessment; D006358:Hot Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D009426:Netherlands; D013312:Stress, Physiological; D013696:Temperature
keywords: adaptation; climate change; cold; health; heat; mortality; scenarios; temperature