title: The Pathologist Workforce in the United States: II. An Interactive Modeling Tool for Analyzing Future Qualitative and Quantitative Staffing Demands for Services.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Pathologists are physicians who make diagnoses based on interpretation of tissue and cellular specimens (surgical/cytopathology, molecular/genomic pathology, autopsy), provide medical leadership and consultation for laboratory medicine, and are integral members of their institutions' interdisciplinary patient care teams.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To develop a dynamic modeling tool to examine how individual factors and practice variables can forecast demand for pathologist services.
  
  
  METHODS
  Build and test a computer-based software model populated with data from surveys and best estimates about current and new pathologist efforts.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Most pathologists' efforts focus on anatomic (52%), laboratory (14%), and other direct services (8%) for individual patients. Population-focused services (12%) (eg, laboratory medical direction) and other professional responsibilities (14%) (eg, teaching, research, and hospital committees) consume the rest of their time. Modeling scenarios were used to assess the need to increase or decrease efforts related globally to the Affordable Care Act, and specifically, to genomic medicine, laboratory consolidation, laboratory medical direction, and new areas where pathologists' expertise can add value.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our modeling tool allows pathologists, educators, and policy experts to assess how various factors may affect demand for pathologists' services. These factors include an aging population, advances in biomedical technology, and changing roles in capitated, value-based, and team-based medical care systems. In the future, pathologists will likely have to assume new roles, develop new expertise, and become more efficient in practicing medicine to accommodate new value-based delivery models.
authors.forename: Stanley J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Robboy
authors.forename: Saurabh
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Gupta
authors.forename: James M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Crawford
authors.forename: Michael B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Cohen
authors.forename: Donald S
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Karcher
authors.forename: Debra G B
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Leonard
authors.forename: Barbarajean
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Magnani
authors.forename: David A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Novis
authors.forename: Michael B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Prystowsky
authors.forename: Suzanne Z
authors.initials: SZ
authors.lastname: Powell
authors.forename: David J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Gross
authors.affiliation: From the Department of Pathology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina (Dr Robboy); The Smart Cube, Noida, India (Mr Gupta); the Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, North Shore-Long Island Jewish Health System, Manhasset, New York (Dr Crawford); the Department of Pathology, Huntsman Cancer Hospital, University of Utah, Salt Lake City (Dr Cohen); the Department of Pathology, George Washington University, Washington, DC (Dr Karcher); the Department of Pathology, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington (Dr Leonard); the Department of Pathology, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts (Dr Magnani); Novis Consulting, Lee, New Hampshire (Dr Novis); the Department of Pathology, Albert Einstein College of Medicine and Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, New York (Dr Prystowsky); the Department of Pathology and Genomic Medicine, The Methodist Hospital, Houston, Texas (Dr Powell); Policy Roundtable, College of American Pathologists, Washington, DC (Dr Gross); the Department of Pathology, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston (Dr Black-Schaffer).
authors.forename: W Stephen
authors.initials: WS
authors.lastname: Black-Schaffer
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D006280:Health Workforce / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D020380:Needs Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D010338:Pathology, Clinical; D010346:Patient Care Management / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D014481:United States