title: Acute pancreatitis gravity predictive factors: which and when to use them?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Acute pancreatitis has as its main causes lithiasic biliary disease and alcohol abuse. Most of the time, the disease shows a self-limiting course, with a rapid recovery, only with supportive treatment. However, in a significant percentage of cases, it runs with important local and systemic complications associated with high mortality rates.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To present the current state of the use of these prognostic factors (predictive scores) of gravity, as the time of application, complexity and specificity.
  
  
  METHODS
  A non-systematic literature review through 28 papers, with emphasis on 13 articles published in indexed journals between 2008 and 2013 using Lilacs, Medline, Pubmed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Several clinical, laboratory analysis, molecular and image variables can predict the development of severe acute pancreatitis. Some of them by themselves can be determinant to the progression of the disease to a more severe form, such as obesity, hematocrit, age and smoking. Hematocrit with a value lower than 44% and serum urea lower than 20 mg/dl, both at admission, appear as risk factors for pancreatic necrosis. But the PCR differentiates mild cases of serious ones in the first 24 h. Multifactorial scores measured on admission and during the first 48 h of hospitalization have been used in intensive care units, being the most ones used: Ranson, Apache II, Glasgow, Iget and Saps II.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Acute pancreatitis is a disease in which several prognostic factors are employed being useful in predicting mortality and on the development of the severe form. It is suggested that the association of a multifactorial score, especially the Saps II associated with Iget, may increase the prognosis accuracy. However, the professional's preferences, the experience on the service as well as the available tools, are factors that have determined the choice of the most suitable predictive score.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Medicine, University José do Rosário Vellano, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
authors.forename: Alexandre de Figueiredo
authors.initials: Ade F
authors.lastname: Ferreira
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil.
authors.forename: Janaina Alves
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Bartelega
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil.
authors.forename: Hugo Corrêa de Andrade
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Urbano
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, Brazil.
authors.forename: Iure Kalinine Ferraz
authors.initials: IK
authors.lastname: de Souza
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D006801:Humans; D010195:Pancreatitis / Q000175:diagnosis*; D011379:Prognosis; D012720:Severity of Illness Index