title: Fibulin-3 fragments are prognostic biomarkers of osteoarthritis incidence in overweight and obese women.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the association between three fibulin-3 peptides and the incidence of radiographic and clinical knee osteoarthritis (OA).
  
  
  METHODS
  Women between 50 and 60 years, with a BMI ≥27 kg/m(2), free of knee OA, were recruited. Using binary logistic regression, the association between baseline concentration of serum fibulin (Fib)3-1, Fib3-2 and Fib3-3 and incidence of clinical and radiographic knee OA after 30 months of follow-up was evaluated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Baseline and follow-up measurements were available for 241 women with a mean age of 55.9 ± 3.2 years and mean BMI of 31.7 ± 3.6 kg/m(2). None of the concentrations of the three Fib3 epitopes were associated with the incidence of medial or lateral joint space narrowing (JSN) ≥1.0 mm or the incidence of Kellgren & Lawrence (K&L) grade ≥2 after 30 months. All three Fib3 epitopes were associated with the incidence of the clinical and radiographic ACR-criteria and Fib3-1 and Fib3-3 also with chronic pain at follow-up. When adjusted for the other Fib3 peptide concentrations, only Fib3-1 was significantly associated to the incidence of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR)-criteria (OR 3.2 [1.2-8.7]) and chronic pain at follow-up (OR 3.0 [1.2-7.7]).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Baseline fibulin-3 concentrations are associated with the incidence of clinical knee OA among middle-aged overweight and obese women. Therewith, they meet the criteria of a prognostic biomarker according to the BIPED biomarker classification for OA. Further validation of the fibulin-3 epitopes seems warranted in order to better distinguish subgroups of individuals at increased risk for knee OA development.
authors.affiliation: Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Department of General Practice, The Netherlands; D-BOARD Consortium, an European Committee FP7 Project, UK.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Runhaar
authors.affiliation: D-BOARD Consortium, an European Committee FP7 Project, UK; Bone and Cartilage Research Unit, Arthropôle Liège, University of Liège, CHU Sart-Tilman, Belgium.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sanchez
authors.affiliation: Artialis SA, Liège, Belgium.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Taralla
authors.affiliation: D-BOARD Consortium, an European Committee FP7 Project, UK; Bone and Cartilage Research Unit, Arthropôle Liège, University of Liège, CHU Sart-Tilman, Belgium. Electronic address: yhenrotin@ulg.ac.be.
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Henrotin
authors.affiliation: Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Department of General Practice, The Netherlands; D-BOARD Consortium, an European Committee FP7 Project, UK; Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Department of Orthopedics, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: S M A
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Bierma-Zeinstra
mesh_terms: D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D015992:Body Mass Index; D000939:Epitopes / Q000097:blood; D016326:Extracellular Matrix Proteins / Q000097:blood* / Q000276:immunology; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007118:Immunoassay / Q000379:methods; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications; D020370:Osteoarthritis, Knee / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000209:etiology; D050177:Overweight / Q000150:complications*; D010446:Peptide Fragments / Q000097:blood / Q000276:immunology; D011379:Prognosis; D011859:Radiography; D012720:Severity of Illness Index
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; C119630:EFEMP1 protein, human; D000939:Epitopes; D016326:Extracellular Matrix Proteins; D010446:Peptide Fragments
keywords: Biomarker; Fibulin-3; Osteoarthritis (OA); Serum