title: Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of Enteropathogenic Yersinia in Finnish Pig Serum Samples.
abstract: Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the pig's and herd's true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia in serum samples collected from Finnish pig farms. The sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test were also estimated for the commercially available ELISA which is used for antibody detection against enteropathogenic Yersinia. The Bayesian analysis was performed in two steps; the first step estimated the prior true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia with data obtained from a systematic review of the literature. In the second step, data of the apparent prevalence (cross-sectional study data), prior true prevalence (first step), and estimated sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods were used for building the Bayesian model. The true prevalence of Yersinia in slaughter-age pigs was 67.5% (95% PI 63.2-70.9). The true prevalence of Yersinia in sows was 74.0% (95% PI 57.3-82.4). The estimates of sensitivity and specificity values of the ELISA were 79.5% and 96.9%.
authors.affiliation: Department of Food Hygiene and Environmental Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 66, Agnes Sjöbergin katu 2, 00014 Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Vilar
authors.affiliation: Research and Laboratory Department, Risk Assessment Research Unit, EVIRA Finnish Food Safety Authority, Mustialankatu 3, 00790 Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ranta
authors.affiliation: Department of Food Hygiene and Environmental Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 66, Agnes Sjöbergin katu 2, 00014 Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Virtanen
authors.affiliation: Department of Food Hygiene and Environmental Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 66, Agnes Sjöbergin katu 2, 00014 Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Korkeala
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000907:Antibodies, Bacterial / Q000097:blood*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002353:Carrier State / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000382:microbiology / Q000662:veterinary; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D015995:Prevalence; D013552:Swine / Q000382:microbiology*; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D015007:Yersinia / Q000276:immunology / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D015009:Yersinia Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000382:microbiology* / Q000662:veterinary
chemical_list: D000907:Antibodies, Bacterial