title: An integrated Bayesian model for estimating the long-term health effects of air pollution by fusing modelled and measured pollution data: A case study of nitrogen dioxide concentrations in Scotland.
abstract: The long-term health effects of air pollution can be estimated using a spatio-temporal ecological study, where the disease data are counts of hospital admissions from populations in small areal units at yearly intervals. Spatially representative pollution concentrations for each areal unit are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over grid level concentrations from an atmospheric dispersion model. We propose a novel fusion model for estimating spatially aggregated pollution concentrations using both the modelled and monitored data, and relate these concentrations to respiratory disease in a new study in Scotland between 2007 and 2011.
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematics and Statistics, University Gardens, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QW, UK. Electronic address: g.huang.1@research.gla.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Guowen
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematics and Statistics, University Gardens, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QW, UK.
authors.forename: Duncan
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematics and Statistics, University Gardens, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QW, UK.
authors.forename: Marian
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Scott
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis* / Q000506:poisoning*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D000465:Algorithms; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D004787:Environmental Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009585:Nitrogen Dioxide / Q000032:analysis* / Q000506:poisoning*; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis / Q000506:poisoning*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012137:Respiratory System / Q000187:drug effects; D012140:Respiratory Tract Diseases / Q000139:chemically induced / Q000453:epidemiology; D012606:Scotland / Q000453:epidemiology; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter; D009585:Nitrogen Dioxide
keywords: Air pollution; Health effects; Respiratory disease; Spatial-temporal model