title: Australia is 'free to choose' economic growth and falling environmental pressures.
abstract: Over two centuries of economic growth have put undeniable pressure on the ecological systems that underpin human well-being. While it is agreed that these pressures are increasing, views divide on how they may be alleviated. Some suggest technological advances will automatically keep us from transgressing key environmental thresholds; others that policy reform can reconcile economic and ecological goals; while a third school argues that only a fundamental shift in societal values can keep human demands within the Earth's ecological limits. Here we use novel integrated analysis of the energy-water-food nexus, rural land use (including biodiversity), material flows and climate change to explore whether mounting ecological pressures in Australia can be reversed, while the population grows and living standards improve. We show that, in the right circumstances, economic and environmental outcomes can be decoupled. Although economic growth is strong across all scenarios, environmental performance varies widely: pressures are projected to more than double, stabilize or fall markedly by 2050. However, we find no evidence that decoupling will occur automatically. Nor do we find that a shift in societal values is required. Rather, extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance. Our results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so.
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia.
authors.forename: Steve
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hatfield-Dodds
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia.
authors.forename: Heinz
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Schandl
authors.affiliation: Victoria University, Flinders Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia.
authors.forename: Philip D
authors.initials: PD
authors.lastname: Adams
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Julius Avenue, North Ryde, NSW 2113, Australia.
authors.forename: Timothy M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Baynes
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Energy Centre, Mayfield West, NSW 2304, Australia.
authors.forename: Thomas S
authors.initials: TS
authors.lastname: Brinsmead
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, SA 5064, Australia.
authors.forename: Brett A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Bryan
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia.
authors.forename: Francis H S
authors.initials: FH
authors.lastname: Chiew
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Energy Centre, Mayfield West, NSW 2304, Australia.
authors.forename: Paul W
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Graham
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia.
authors.forename: Mike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Grundy
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia.
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Harwood
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia.
authors.forename: Rebecca
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: McCallum
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Ecosciences Precinct, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia.
authors.forename: Rod
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: McCrea
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Ecosciences Precinct, Dutton Park, QLD 4102, Australia.
authors.forename: Lisa E
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: McKellar
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Yarralumla Laboratories, Yarralumla, ACT 2601, Australia.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Newth
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, SA 5064, Australia.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Nolan
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia.
authors.forename: Ian
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Prosser
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Julius Avenue, North Ryde, NSW 2113, Australia.
authors.forename: Alex
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wonhas
mesh_terms: D001315:Australia; D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change / Q000191:economics*; D003246:Conservation of Energy Resources; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000191:economics / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000639:trends; D057217:Economic Development / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000639:trends; D058735:Environmental Policy / Q000191:economics / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000639:trends; D005523:Food Supply; D018803:Models, Economic; D011050:Policy Making; D011057:Politics; D014881:Water Supply