title: What Has Caused Desertification in China?
abstract: Desertification is the result of complex interactions among various factors, including climate change and human activities. However, previous research generally focused on either meteorological factors associated with climate change or human factors associated with human activities, and lacked quantitative assessments of their interaction combined with long-term monitoring. Thus, the roles of climate change and human factors in desertification remain uncertain. To understand the factors that determine whether mitigation programs can contribute to desertification control and vegetation cover improvements in desertified areas of China, and the complex interactions that affect their success, we used a pooled regression model based on panel data to calculate the relative roles of climate change and human activities on the desertified area and on vegetation cover (using the normalized-difference vegetation index, NDVI, which decreases with increasing desertification) from 1983 to 2012. We found similar effect magnitudes for socioeconomic and environmental factors for NDVI but different results for desertification: socioeconomic factors were the dominant factor that affected desertification, accounting for 79.3% of the effects. Climate change accounted for 46.6 and 20.6% of the effects on NDVI and desertification, respectively. Therefore, desertification control programs must account for the integrated effects of both socioeconomic and natural factors.
authors.affiliation: Cold and Arid Regions Environmental Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 320, Donggang West Road, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Qi
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.affiliation: Guangxi Hydraulic Research Institute, No. 1-5 Minzhu Road, Nanning, Guangxi, 530023, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Hua
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.affiliation: School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, No. 35, Qinghuadong Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Xuemei
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.affiliation: School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, No. 35, Qinghuadong Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Xin
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, No. 35, Qinghuadong Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Shixiong
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Cao
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002681:China; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013696:Temperature