title: A Patient-Based Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival after Radiofrequency Ablation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a prognostic nomogram based on specific patient and tumor factors capable of estimating individual survival outcomes after radiofrequency (RF) ablation as a primary therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
  
  
  METHODS
  This retrospective study included 893 patients who were initially treated with curative RF ablation for HCC; patients were temporally divided into derivation (n = 607) and validation (n = 286) cohorts. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model for overall survival was developed and validated. The discriminatory accuracy of the model was compared with the preexisting Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) system and the Tokyo score previously proposed for percutaneous therapy for HCC by analyzing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A nomogram was generated for 3-year survival, incorporating largest tumor diameter and number of tumors, serum albumin and creatinine, platelet count, prothrombin time, and serum α-fetoprotein on a logarithmic scale. It had good calibration and discrimination abilities with a C-index of 0.74. The validation results also showed that the nomogram performed well in terms of goodness-of-fit and discrimination (C-index, 0.72). Analysis of ROC curves in the validation cohort indicated that the model had better predictive power than CLIP and Tokyo scores (C-indexes, 0.54 and 0.66, respectively).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This prognostic tool quantifying per-patient expected survival after RF ablation can be used in daily clinical decision making with regard to patients with HCC deemed suitable for radical ablation and is probably more reliable than existing guidelines.
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Seohyun
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Statistics, Gachon University, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Seungbong
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Han
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: s5854@medimail.co.kr.
authors.forename: Ju Hyun
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Shim
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: So Yeon
authors.initials: SY
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Hyung Jin
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Won
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Yong Moon
authors.initials: YM
authors.lastname: Shin
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Pyo Nyun
authors.initials: PN
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Jihyun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: An
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Danbi
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Kang Mo
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Young-Suk
authors.initials: YS
authors.lastname: Lim
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Young-Hwa
authors.initials: YH
authors.lastname: Chung
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Yung Sang
authors.initials: YS
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, 388-1 Poongnap-2dong, Songpa-gu, Seoul 138-736, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Han Chu
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Lee
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D017115:Catheter Ablation / Q000401:mortality*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery*; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D049451:Nomograms; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D018802:Patient-Centered Care / Q000379:methods; D015995:Prevalence; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D056910:Republic of Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D017678:Sex Distribution; D015996:Survival Rate; D016896:Treatment Outcome