title: Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles.
abstract: The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21(st) century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100.
authors.affiliation: Population Ecology Group, Institut Mediterrani d' Estudis Avançats, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Miquel Marquès, 21, 07190, Esporles, Mallorca, Spain.
authors.forename: Pilar
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Santidrián Tomillo
authors.affiliation: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, c/o Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton University Forrestal Campus, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
authors.forename: Vincent S
authors.initials: VS
authors.lastname: Saba
authors.affiliation: U.S. Fishing and Wildlife Service, USA.
authors.forename: Claudia D
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Lombard
authors.affiliation: Geographic Consulting, St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, USA.
authors.forename: Jennifer M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Valiulis
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Indiana-Purdue University, Fort Wayne, Indiana, USA.
authors.forename: Nathan J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Robinson
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Indiana-Purdue University, Fort Wayne, Indiana, USA.
authors.forename: Frank V
authors.initials: FV
authors.lastname: Paladino
authors.affiliation: Department of Biodiversity, Earth and Environmental Science, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
authors.forename: James R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Spotila
authors.affiliation: Endangered Wildlife Trust, Avda. 11, San José, Costa Rica.
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Fernández
authors.affiliation: Universidad de Granada, Campus Fuentenueva s/n, Granada, Spain.
authors.forename: Marga L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Rivas
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa.
authors.forename: Jenny
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Tucek
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa.
authors.forename: Ronel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Nel
authors.affiliation: Population Ecology Group, Institut Mediterrani d' Estudis Avançats, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Miquel Marquès, 21, 07190, Esporles, Mallorca, Spain.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Oro
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D017691:Caribbean Region; D057231:Climate Change; D019156:Indian Ocean; D010140:Pacific Ocean; D013696:Temperature; D014426:Turtles / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D015053:Zygote / Q000254:growth & development