title: Rates and predictors of three-year mortality in older people in rural Tanzania.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  There are few data on mortality rates in the general elderly living in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to detail three-year mortality rates in a population of rural community-dwelling older adults in northern Tanzania.
  
  
  METHODS
  We performed a community-based study of 2232 people aged 70 years and over living in Hai district, Tanzania. At baseline, participants underwent clinical assessment for disability, neurological disorders, hypertension, atrial fibrillation and memory problems. At three-year follow-up mortality data were collected. Mortality rates were compared to UK estimates.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At follow-up, data were available for 1873 subjects (83.9%). Of those, 208 (11.1%, 95% CI 9.7-12.5) had died. The age-standardised mortality rate was 10.2% (95% CI 8.8-11.6). Age-standardised mortality rates were lower than estimated for the UK (13.9%). In Cox regression analysis, greater age, higher levels of functional disability, use of a walking aid, subjective report of memory problems, being severely underweight and being normotensive were significant predictors of mortality.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Those who survive to old age in Tanzania appear to have relatively low mortality rates. Physical and cognitive disabilities were strongly associated with mortality risk in this elderly community-dwelling population. The association between blood pressure and mortality merits further study.
authors.affiliation: Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust, North Tyneside General Hospital, North Shields, UK.
authors.forename: William K
authors.initials: WK
authors.lastname: Gray
authors.affiliation: Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust, North Tyneside General Hospital, North Shields, UK; Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
authors.forename: Felicity
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Dewhurst
authors.affiliation: Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust, North Tyneside General Hospital, North Shields, UK; Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
authors.forename: Matthew J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Dewhurst
authors.affiliation: Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre, Moshi, Tanzania.
authors.forename: Golda
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Orega
authors.affiliation: District Medical Office, PO Box 27, Hai District Hospital, Boman'gombe, Hai, Tanzania.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kissima
authors.affiliation: District Medical Office, PO Box 27, Hai District Hospital, Boman'gombe, Hai, Tanzania.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Chaote
authors.affiliation: Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust, North Tyneside General Hospital, North Shields, UK; Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. Electronic address: Richard.walker@nhct.nhs.uk.
authors.forename: Richard W
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Walker
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living / Q000523:psychology; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000453:epidemiology; D002908:Chronic Disease / Q000401:mortality* / Q000523:psychology; D006233:Persons with Disabilities; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D015577:Geriatric Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening; D009422:Nervous System Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012424:Rural Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D013636:Tanzania / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Africa; Barthel index; Disability; Elderly; Memory problems; Mortality; Neurological disorders; Older adults; Tanzania