title: A risk prediction model for xerostomia: a retrospective cohort study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We investigated the prevalence of xerostomia in dental patients and built a xerostomia risk prediction model by incorporating a wide range of risk factors.
  
  
  METHODS
  Socio-demographic data, past medical history, self-reported dry mouth and related symptoms were collected retrospectively from January 2010 to September 2013 for all new dental patients. A logistic regression framework was used to build a risk prediction model for xerostomia. External validation was performed using an independent data set to test the prediction power.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 12 682 patients were included in this analysis (54.3%, females). Xerostomia was reported by 12.2% of patients. The proportion of people reporting xerostomia was higher among those who were taking more medications (OR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.08-1.13) or recreational drug users (OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.1-1.9). Rheumatic diseases (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.88-2.51), psychiatric diseases (OR = 2.34, 95% CI = 2.05-2.68), eating disorders (OR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.55-3.36) and radiotherapy (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.43-2.80) were good predictors of xerostomia. For the test model performance, the ROC-AUC was 0.816 and in the external validation sample, the ROC-AUC was 0.799.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The xerostomia risk prediction model had high accuracy and discriminated between high- and low-risk individuals. Clinicians could use this model to identify the classes of medications and systemic diseases associated with xerostomia.
authors.affiliation: Division of Oral Medicine and Dentistry, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA. avilla@partners.org.|Department of Oral Medicine, Infection and Immunity, Harvard School of Dental Medicine, Boston, MA, USA. avilla@partners.org.
authors.forename: Alessandro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Villa
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Health-Exposure, Epidemiology and Risk Program, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Nordio
authors.affiliation: Department of General Dentistry, Boston University Henry M. Goldman School of Dental Medicine, Boston, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Anita
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gohel
mesh_terms: D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D015995:Prevalence; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D014987:Xerostomia / Q000175:diagnosis*
keywords: prediction model; risk factors; xerostomia