title: Recurring flood distribution patterns related to short-term Holocene climatic variability.
abstract: Millennial- and multi-centennial scale climate variability during the Holocene has been well documented, but its impact on the distribution and timing of extreme river floods has yet to be established. Here we present a meta-analysis of more than 2000 radiometrically dated flood units to reconstruct centennial-scale Holocene flood episodes in Europe and North Africa. Our data analysis shows a general increase in flood frequency after 5000 cal. yr BP consistent with a weakening in zonal circulation over the second half of the Holocene, and with an increase in winter insolation. Multi-centennial length phases of flooding in UK and central Europe correspond with periods of minimum solar irradiance, with a clear trend of increasing flood frequency over the last 1000 years. Western Mediterranean regions show synchrony of flood episodes associated with negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation that are out-of-phase with those evident within the eastern Mediterranean. This long-term flood record reveals complex but geographically highly interconnected climate-flood relationships, and provides a new framework to understand likely future spatial changes of flood frequency.
authors.affiliation: Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, Serrano 115 bis, 28006 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Gerardo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Benito
authors.affiliation: Centre for Catchment and Coastal Research and the River Basin Dynamics and Hydrology Research Group, Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Ceredigion SY23 3DB, UK.|Innovative River Solutions, Institute of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, 4442, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Mark G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Macklin
authors.affiliation: Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, Lengory 1, Moscow, 119991, Russia.
authors.forename: Andrei
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Panin
authors.affiliation: University of Padua, Department of Geosciences, Via Gradenigo, 6. 35131 Padova, Italy.
authors.forename: Sandro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rossato
authors.affiliation: University of Padua, Department of Geosciences, Via Gradenigo, 6. 35131 Padova, Italy.
authors.forename: Alessandro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Fontana
authors.affiliation: School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Policy, University College Dublin, Newman Building, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland.
authors.forename: Anna F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.affiliation: Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, Serrano 115 bis, 28006 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Maria J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Machado
authors.affiliation: Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, Lengory 1, Moscow, 119991, Russia.
authors.forename: Ekaterina
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Matlakhova
authors.affiliation: University of Padua, Department of Geosciences, Via Gradenigo, 6. 35131 Padova, Italy.
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Mozzi
authors.affiliation: Leipzig University, Institute of Geography, Johannisallee 19a, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Zielhofer