title: Development of Risk Score for Predicting 3-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Risk models and scores have been developed to predict incidence of type 2 diabetes in Western populations, but their performance may differ when applied to non-Western populations. We developed and validated a risk score for predicting 3-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese population.
  
  
  METHODS
  Participants were 37,416 men and women, aged 30 or older, who received periodic health checkup in 2008-2009 in eight companies. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 126 mg/dl, random plasma glucose ≥ 200 mg/dl, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥ 6.5%, or receiving medical treatment for diabetes. Risk scores on non-invasive and invasive models including FPG and HbA1c were developed using logistic regression in a derivation cohort and validated in the remaining cohort.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The area under the curve (AUC) for the non-invasive model including age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, and smoking status was 0.717 (95% CI, 0.703-0.731). In the invasive model in which both FPG and HbA1c were added to the non-invasive model, AUC was increased to 0.893 (95% CI, 0.883-0.902). When the risk scores were applied to the validation cohort, AUCs (95% CI) for the non-invasive and invasive model were 0.734 (0.715-0.753) and 0.882 (0.868-0.895), respectively. Participants with a non-invasive score of ≥ 15 and invasive score of ≥ 19 were projected to have >20% and >50% risk, respectively, of developing type 2 diabetes within 3 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The simple risk score of the non-invasive model might be useful for predicting incident type 2 diabetes, and its predictive performance may be markedly improved by incorporating FPG and HbA1c.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Prevention, Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Akiko
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Nanri
authors.affiliation: Hitachi, Ltd., Ibaraki, Japan.
authors.forename: Tohru
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nakagawa
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Prevention, Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.|Teikyo University, Graduate School of Public Health, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Keisuke
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kuwahara
authors.affiliation: Hitachi, Ltd., Ibaraki, Japan.
authors.forename: Shuichiro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Yamamoto
authors.affiliation: Hitachi, Ltd., Ibaraki, Japan.
authors.forename: Toru
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Honda
authors.affiliation: Mitsui Chemicals, Inc., Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Hiroko
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Okazaki
authors.affiliation: YAMAHA CORPORATION, Shizuoka, Japan.
authors.forename: Akihiko
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Uehara
authors.affiliation: YAMAHA CORPORATION, Shizuoka, Japan.
authors.forename: Makoto
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Yamamoto
authors.affiliation: Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation Kimitsu Works, Chiba, Japan.
authors.forename: Toshiaki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Miyamoto
authors.affiliation: Furukawa Electric Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Takeshi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kochi
authors.affiliation: Furukawa Electric Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Masafumi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Eguchi
authors.affiliation: Mizue Medical Clinic, Keihin Occupational Health Center, Kanagawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Taizo
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Murakami
authors.affiliation: Mizue Medical Clinic, Keihin Occupational Health Center, Kanagawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Chii
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Shimizu
authors.affiliation: Mizue Medical Clinic, Keihin Occupational Health Center, Kanagawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Makiko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Shimizu
authors.affiliation: Mitsubishi Plastics, Inc., Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Kentaro
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Tomita
authors.affiliation: All Japan Labour Welfare Foundation, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Satsue
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Nagahama
authors.affiliation: Azbil Corporation, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Teppei
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Imai
authors.affiliation: Azbil Corporation, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Akiko
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Nishihara
authors.affiliation: Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Corporation, Kanagawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Naoko
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Sasaki
authors.affiliation: Department of Safety and Health, Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Ai
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hori
authors.affiliation: Health Design Inc., Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Nobuaki
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Sakamoto
authors.affiliation: Department of Safety and Health, Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Chihiro
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Nishiura
authors.affiliation: Mizuho Health Insurance Society, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Takafumi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Totsuzaki
authors.affiliation: Fuji Electric Co., Ltd., Kanagawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Noritada
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Kato
authors.affiliation: ADVANTAGE Risk Management Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Kenji
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Fukasawa
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Prevention, Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Hu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Huanhuan
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Prevention, Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Shamima
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Akter
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Prevention, Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Kayo
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kurotani
authors.affiliation: Furukawa Electric Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Isamu
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Kabe
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Prevention, Center for Clinical Sciences, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Tetsuya
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Mizoue
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Public Health, Saitama, Japan.
authors.forename: Tomofumi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sone
authors.affiliation: Mitsui Chemicals, Inc., Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Seitaro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Dohi
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D019540:Area Under Curve; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis; D015992:Body Mass Index; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000032:analysis; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis; D015994:Incidence; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016272:Occupational Health; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking; D055105:Waist Circumference
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin