title: A joint model based on longitudinal CA125 in ovarian cancer to predict recurrence.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a new package of joint model to fit longitudinal CA125 in epithelial ovarian cancer relapse.
  
  
  METHODS
  Included were 305 epithelial ovarian cancer patients who reached complete remission after cytoreductive surgery and first-line chemotherapy. Univariate and multivariate analysis with a joint model was performed to select independent risk factors, which were subsequently combined to predict recurrence.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Independent factors were longitudinal CA125, age, stage and residual tumor size (p < 0.05). Prediction of recurrence with these factors had an average of 80.7% accuracy, 5.6-10.7% better than kinetic factors.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The new package of joint model fits longitudinal CA125 well. Potential application can be extended to other biomarkers.
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, Republic of China.
authors.forename: Chung
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology, Kaohsiung Veterans General Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, Republic of China.|Department of Biological Sciences, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, Republic of China.|Department of Pharmacy & Graduate Institute of Pharmaceutical Technology, Tajen University, Pingtung, Taiwan, Republic of China.
authors.forename: An Jen
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Chiang
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, Republic of China.
authors.forename: Wei-An
authors.initials: WA
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, Republic of China.
authors.forename: Hsueh-Wen
authors.initials: HW
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.affiliation: Multidisciplinary Science Research Center, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, Republic of China.|Da-Yeh University, Changhua, Taiwan, Republic of China.
authors.forename: Jiabin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D018394:CA-125 Antigen / Q000378:metabolism*; D000077216:Carcinoma, Ovarian Epithelial; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009375:Neoplasms, Glandular and Epithelial / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000378:metabolism*; D010051:Ovarian Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000378:metabolism*; D011379:Prognosis; D012008:Recurrence; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D018394:CA-125 Antigen
keywords: joint model; longitudinal CA125; ovarian cancer; recurrence