title: Teaching examples for the design of experiments: geographical sensitivity and the self-fulfilling prophecy.
abstract: Many scientists believe that small experiments, guided by scientific intuition, are simpler and more efficient than design of experiments. This belief is strong and persists even in the face of data demonstrating that it is clearly wrong. In this paper, we present two powerful teaching examples illustrating the dangers of small experiments guided by scientific intuition. We describe two, simple, two-dimensional spaces. These two spaces give rise to, and at the same time appear to generate supporting data for, scientific intuitions that are deeply flawed or wholly incorrect. We find these spaces useful in unfreezing scientific thinking and challenging the misplaced confidence in scientific intuition.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
authors.forename: Dennis W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Lendrem
authors.affiliation: Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
authors.forename: B Clare
authors.initials: BC
authors.lastname: Lendrem
authors.affiliation: Centre for Bioengineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
authors.forename: Ruth
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Rowland-Jones
authors.affiliation: Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
authors.forename: Fabio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: D'Agostino
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematics & Statistics, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
authors.forename: Matt
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Linsley
authors.affiliation: Medicines Research Centre, Glaxo Smith Kline, Stevenage, UK.
authors.forename: Martin R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Owen
authors.affiliation: Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
authors.forename: John D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Isaacs
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D012107:Research Design / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000068916:Spatial Regression; D013663:Teaching
keywords: DOE; behavioral economics; decision-making; design of experiments; scientific thinking; teaching