title: A Preliminary Formula to Predict Timing of Symptom Resolution for Collegiate Athletes Diagnosed With Sport Concussion.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Symptom presentation and recovery after sport concussion (SC) are variable. Empirically based models documenting typical symptom duration would assist health care providers in managing return to play after SC.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To develop a prediction model for SC symptom duration.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cross-sectional study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Two National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I university laboratories.
  
  
  METHODS
  Seventy-six (51 male and 25 female) concussed athletes with an average age of 19.5 ± 1.65 years who were evaluated within 24 hours of diagnosis.
  
  
  METHODS
  Participants completed the Revised Head Injury Scale (HIS-r), Immediate Post-Concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT), and Sensory Organization Test within 24 hours of SC diagnosis.
  
  
  METHODS
  A stepwise multivariate regression incorporating ImPACT and Sensory Organization Test composites and HIS-r symptom severity-duration was used to predict the number of days athletes reported symptoms after SC. The resulting regression formula was cross-validated using the Stine cross-validation coefficient.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The final formula consisted of the HIS-r's self-reported neck pain, drowsiness, tingling, and nervousness duration and ImPACT total symptom severity (R = 0.62, R(2) = 39%, R(2)(adj) = 34.2%, P < .001). Approximately 29% (R(2)(cv) = 29%) of the variance associated with total days symptomatic after SC was explained by our preliminary formula when cross-validated. The current formula correctly identified 76% of participants who recovered within 10 days of injury.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our results suggest that self-reported duration of 4 symptoms during the initial 24 hours after injury along with total symptom severity as measured by ImPACT accounted for a considerable amount of variance associated with days symptomatic after SC in collegiate athletes. Until the formula is cross-validated in a college-aged sample, caution is warranted in using it clinically.
authors.affiliation: Exercise and Sport Injury Laboratory, Department of Kinesiology, The University of Virginia, Charlottesville;
authors.forename: Jacob E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Resch
authors.affiliation: The University of Georgia, Athens;
authors.forename: Cathleen N
authors.initials: CN
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: Atlanta Neuropsychology LLC, GA;
authors.forename: Stephen N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Macciocchi
authors.affiliation: The University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas;
authors.forename: C Munro
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Cullum
authors.affiliation: Orthopedic Specialty Associates, Fort Worth, TX;
authors.forename: Damond
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Blueitt
authors.affiliation: The University of New Hampshire, Durham.
authors.forename: Michael S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Ferrara
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D056352:Athletes; D001265:Athletic Injuries / Q000175:diagnosis*; D001924:Brain Concussion / Q000175:diagnosis*; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D000068958:Return to Sport; D057566:Self Report; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D014495:Universities; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: prediction; prolonged recovery; symptom duration; symptom severity; traumatic brain injuries