title: Hypothetical Outcome Plots Outperform Error Bars and Violin Plots for Inferences about Reliability of Variable Ordering.
abstract: Many visual depictions of probability distributions, such as error bars, are difficult for users to accurately interpret. We present and study an alternative representation, Hypothetical Outcome Plots (HOPs), that animates a finite set of individual draws. In contrast to the statistical background required to interpret many static representations of distributions, HOPs require relatively little background knowledge to interpret. Instead, HOPs enables viewers to infer properties of the distribution using mental processes like counting and integration. We conducted an experiment comparing HOPs to error bars and violin plots. With HOPs, people made much more accurate judgments about plots of two and three quantities. Accuracy was similar with all three representations for most questions about distributions of a single quantity.
authors.affiliation: Information School, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.
authors.forename: Jessica
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hullman
authors.affiliation: School of Information, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States of America.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Resnick
authors.affiliation: School of Information, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States of America.
authors.forename: Eytan
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Adar
mesh_terms: D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D004192:Discrimination, Psychological; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016011:Normal Distribution; D011336:Probability; D015203:Reproducibility of Results