title: Rapid Recent Warming of Coral Reefs in the Florida Keys.
abstract: Coral reef decline in the Florida Keys has been well-publicized, controversial, and polarizing owing to debate over the causative agent being climate change versus overfishing. The recurrence of mass bleaching in 2014, the sixth event since 1987, prompted a reanalysis of temperature data. The summer and winter of 2014 were the warmest on record. The oldest known in-situ temperature record of any coral reef is from Hens and Chickens Reef (H&C) in the Florida Keys, which showed significant warming from 1975-2014. The average number of days ≥31.5 and 32(o)C per year increased 2670% and 2560%, respectively, from the mid-1990 s to present relative to the previous 20 years. In every year after 1992 and 1994, maximum daily average temperatures exceeded 30.5 and 31°C, respectively. From 1975-1994, temperatures were <31 °C in 61% of years, and in 44% of the years prior to 1992 temperatures were <30.5 °C. The measured rate of warming predicts the start of annual bleaching between 2020 and 2034, sooner than expected from climate models and satellite-based sea temperatures. These data show that thermal stress is increasing and occurring on a near-annual basis on Florida Keys reefs due to ocean warming from climate change.
authors.affiliation: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories (AOML), NOAA, 4301 Rickenbacker Cswy., Miami, FL 33149.
authors.forename: Derek P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Manzello
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D037421:Anthozoa / Q000502:physiology; D057231:Climate Change; D057894:Coral Reefs; D005431:Florida; D006358:Hot Temperature; D012621:Seasons