title: Balancing research and funding using value of information and portfolio tools for nanomaterial risk classification.
abstract: Risk research for nanomaterials is currently prioritized by means of expert workshops and other deliberative processes. However, analytical techniques that quantify and compare alternative research investments are increasingly recommended. Here, we apply value of information and portfolio decision analysis-methods commonly applied in financial and operations management-to prioritize risk research for multiwalled carbon nanotubes and nanoparticulate silver and titanium dioxide. We modify the widely accepted CB Nanotool hazard evaluation framework, which combines nano- and bulk-material properties into a hazard score, to operate probabilistically with uncertain inputs. Literature is reviewed to develop uncertain estimates for each input parameter, and a Monte Carlo simulation is applied to assess how different research strategies can improve hazard classification. The relative cost of each research experiment is elicited from experts, which enables identification of efficient research portfolios-combinations of experiments that lead to the greatest improvement in hazard classification at the lowest cost. Nanoparticle shape, diameter, solubility and surface reactivity were most frequently identified within efficient portfolios in our results.
authors.affiliation: Environmental Lab, Engineer Research and Development Center, US Army Corps of Engineers, 696 Virginia Road, Concord, Massachusetts 01742, USA.
authors.forename: Matthew E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Bates
authors.affiliation: Management Sciences &Information Systems Department, University of Massachusetts Boston, 100 Morrissey Boulevard, Boston, Massachusetts 02125, USA.
authors.forename: Jeffrey M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Keisler
authors.affiliation: Environmental Lab, Engineer Research and Development Center, US Army Corps of Engineers, 696 Virginia Road, Concord, Massachusetts 01742, USA.|Department of Chemical Engineering, University of California Santa Barbara, University of California, Mail Code 5080, Santa Barbara, California 93106, USA.
authors.forename: Niels P
authors.initials: NP
authors.lastname: Zussblatt
authors.affiliation: Environmental Lab, Engineer Research and Development Center, US Army Corps of Engineers, 696 Virginia Road, Concord, Massachusetts 01742, USA.
authors.forename: Kenton J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Plourde
authors.affiliation: Environmental Lab, Engineer Research and Development Center, US Army Corps of Engineers, 696 Virginia Road, Concord, Massachusetts 01742, USA.|School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, PO Box 875306, Tempe, Arizona 85287, USA.
authors.forename: Ben A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Wender
authors.affiliation: Environmental Lab, Engineer Research and Development Center, US Army Corps of Engineers, 696 Virginia Road, Concord, Massachusetts 01742, USA.
authors.forename: Igor
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Linkov