title: A mathematical model for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever: tick-borne dynamics with conferred host immunity.
abstract: Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a highly contagious tick-borne disease that impacts many countries in parts of Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Outbreaks are episodic, but deadly. Due to the highly contagious nature of this disease, suspected cases are taken extremely serious, with very strong control measures implemented almost immediately. It is primarily those living on farms, livestock workers, and medical workers who are at risk. The virus responsible for CCHF is transmitted asymptomatically and transiently to livestock, and symptomatically to humans. The fatality rate in human cases can be very high. The number of methods and directions of viral transmission is large, including tick-to-tick, tick-to-livestock, tick-to-human, livestock-to-tick, livestock-to-human, and human-to-human. We model CCHF using a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations. This compartment model allows us to analyse threshold parameters and equilibria describing the magnitude and progression of cases of the disease in a hypothetical outbreak.
authors.affiliation: a Department of Mathematics and Statistics , California State Polytechnic University , Pomona , CA , USA.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Switkes
authors.affiliation: b Department of Mathematics , School of Physical Sciences, College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University , Kampala , Uganda.
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Nannyonga
authors.affiliation: b Department of Mathematics , School of Physical Sciences, College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University , Kampala , Uganda.
authors.forename: J Y T
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Mugisha
authors.affiliation: b Department of Mathematics , School of Physical Sciences, College of Natural Sciences, Makerere University , Kampala , Uganda.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Nakakawa
mesh_terms: D006479:Hemorrhagic Fever, Crimean / Q000276:immunology / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D017282:Tick-Borne Diseases / Q000276:immunology / Q000635:transmission*
keywords: 92B05; 92D30; Crimean-Congo fever; efficacious contact rate; tick-bornedynamics; tick–livestock–human model