title: Agricultural vulnerability over the Chinese Loess Plateau in response to climate change: Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.
abstract: Understanding how the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change can differ spatially has practical significance to sustainable management of agricultural systems worldwide. Accordingly, this study developed a conceptual framework to assess the agricultural vulnerability of 243 rural counties on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Indicators representing the climate/agriculture interface were selected to describe exposure and sensitivity, while stocks of certain capitals were used to describe adaptive capacity. A vulnerability index for each county was calculated and the spatial distribution was mapped. Results showed that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity occur independently, with most contributing indicator values concentrated in a narrow range after normalization. Within the 49 most vulnerable counties, which together encompass 81 % of the vulnerability index range, 42 were characterized by high exposure and sensitivity but low adaptive capacity. The most vulnerable area was found to be located in the central northeast-southwest belt of Loess Plateau. Adaptation measures for both ecological restoration and economic development are needed and potential adaptation options need further investigation.
authors.affiliation: The School of Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2007, Australia. xueling.li@student.uts.edu.au.
authors.forename: Xueling
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: School of Science and Health, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW, 2751, Australia. J.Philp@westernsydney.edu.au.
authors.forename: Joshua
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Philp
authors.affiliation: Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Departments of Geosciences and Economics, University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, Hamburg, 20144, Germany. roger.cremades@hzg.de.
authors.forename: Roger
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Cremades
authors.affiliation: Natural Decisions Pty Ltd, PO Box 123, Newstead, VIC, 3462, Australia. anna.roberts@naturaldecisions.com.au.
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Roberts
authors.affiliation: Agro-meteorological Centre, National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China. xhl860728@163.com.
authors.forename: Liang
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: He
authors.affiliation: The School of Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2007, Australia. longhui.li@uts.edu.au.
authors.forename: Longhui
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: The School of Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, 2007, Australia. qiang.yu@uts.edu.au.
authors.forename: Qiang
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Yu
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002681:China; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D005308:Fertilizers; D006153:Guanosine Diphosphate; D007182:Income; D012424:Rural Population; D062066:Water Resources
chemical_list: D005308:Fertilizers; D006153:Guanosine Diphosphate
keywords: Adaptation; Climate change; County level; Loess Plateau; Vulnerability analysis; Yield variability