title: Childhood to Early-Midlife Systolic Blood Pressure Trajectories: Early-Life Predictors, Effect Modifiers, and Adult Cardiovascular Outcomes.
abstract: Previous studies examining blood pressure change over time have modeled an average population trajectory. Recent research among older adults suggests there may be subgroups with different blood pressure trajectories. Identifying subgroups at risk of developing adult hypertension early in life can inform effective risk reduction efforts. We sought to identify different systolic blood pressure trajectories from childhood, their correlated risk factors, and early-midlife cardiovascular outcomes. Blood pressure data at ages 7, 11, 18, 26, 32, and 38 years from a longitudinal, representative birth cohort study (n=975) were used to identify 4 distinct trajectory groups via group-based trajectory modeling: normal (21.8%), high-normal (43.3%), prehypertensive (31.6%), and hypertensive (4.2%). The categories refer to blood pressure beginning at the age of 7 years and most recently measured at the age of 38 years. Family history of high blood pressure (odds ratio [OR], 43.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.27-354.65), male sex (OR, 109.48; 95% CI, 26.82-446.96), being first born (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.00-8.69) and low birth weight (OR, 2.79; 95% CI, 2.49-3.09) were associated with hypertensive group membership (compared with the normal group). Higher body mass index and cigarette smoking resulted in increasing blood pressure across trajectories, particularly for the higher blood pressure groups. Prehypertensive and hypertensive trajectory groups had worse cardiovascular outcomes by early midlife. Harmful blood pressure trajectories are identifiable in childhood, associated with both antecedent and modifiable risk factors over time, and predict adult cardiovascular disease risk. Early detection and subsequent targeted prevention and intervention may reduce the lifecourse burden associated with higher blood pressure.
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC. moana.theodore@otago.ac.nz richie.poulton@otago.ac.nz.
authors.forename: Reremoana F
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Theodore
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: Jonathan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Broadbent
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Nagin
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: Antony
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ambler
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: Sean
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hogan
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: Sandhya
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ramrakha
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: Wayne
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Cutfield
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: Michael J A
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: HonaLee
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Harrington
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: Terrie E
authors.initials: TE
authors.lastname: Moffitt
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: Avshalom
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Caspi
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: Barry
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Milne
authors.affiliation: From the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit, Department of Psychology (R.F.T., S.H., S.R., R.P.), Department of Oral Rehabilitation, Sir John Walsh Research Institute, Faculty of Dentistry (J.B.), Department of Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine (M.J.A.W.), University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand; Heinz School of Public and Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (D.N.); Medical Research Council Social, Genetic, and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, United Kingdom (A.A., T.E.M., A.C.); Liggins Institute (W.C.) and Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (B.M.), University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; and Departments of Psychology and Neuroscience (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.) and Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences (H.L.H., T.E.M., A.C.), Duke University, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: Richie
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Poulton
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001794:Blood Pressure / Q000502:physiology*; D001835:Body Weight / Q000502:physiology; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000517:prevention & control; D002319:Cardiovascular System / Q000503:physiopathology*; D002648:Child; D042241:Early Diagnosis; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000503:physiopathology*; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D058246:Prehypertension / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000503:physiopathology*; D012307:Risk Factors; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: blood pressure; follow-up studies; hypertension; pediatrics; risk factor