title: Utility of Continuous Metabolic Syndrome Score in Assessing Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: The Isfahan Diabetes Prevention Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  It is not clear whether levels of continuous metabolic syndrome (cMetS) are associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D). The aim of this study was to determine the ability of the cMetS score to predict progression to T2D in non-diabetic first-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with T2D in Isfahan, Iran.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 1,869 non-diabetic FDRs 30-70 years old in 2003-2005 were followed through 2014 for the occurrence of T2D. At baseline and through follow-ups, participants underwent a standard 75 g 2-h oral glucose tolerance test. MetS was defined by the National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III. The cMetS score was calculated using age- and gender-standardized Z-score for MetS components. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the association between cMetS and components of MetS with T2D.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During 13,571 person-years of follow-up, 72 men and 210 women developed diabetes. Those in the top quartile of cMetS were 8.0 times more likely to develop diabetes than those in the bottom quartile (OR 7.96; 95% CI 4.88-12.99). On ROC curve analysis, a higher area under the ROC were found for FPG (74.3%; 95% CI 70.8-77.8), than for cMetS (69.4%; 95% CI 66.0-72.8).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The cMetS score is a robust predictor of T2D and may be more effective and efficient than the current binary definition of MetS in predicting progression to T2D in our study population.
authors.affiliation: Isfahan Endocrine and Metabolism Research Center, Isfahan, Iran.
authors.forename: Mohsen
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Janghorbani
authors.forename: Masoud
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Amini
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015992:Body Mass Index; D001835:Body Weight; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors