title: Trust and health: testing the reverse causality hypothesis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Social capital research has consistently shown positive associations between generalised trust and health outcomes over 2 decades. Longitudinal studies attempting to test causal relationships further support the theory that trust is an independent predictor of health. However, as the reverse causality hypothesis has yet to be empirically tested, a knowledge gap remains. The aim of this study, therefore, was to investigate if health status predicts trust.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data employed in this study came from 4 waves of the British Household Panel Survey between years 2000 and 2007 (N=8114). The sample was stratified by baseline trust to investigate temporal relationships between prior self-rated health (SRH) and changes in trust. We used logistic regression models with random effects, as trust was expected to be more similar within the same individuals over time.
  
  
  RESULTS
  From the 'Can trust at baseline' cohort, poor SRH at time (t-1) predicted low trust at time (t) (OR=1.38). Likewise, good health predicted high trust within the 'Cannot' trust cohort (OR=1.30). These patterns of positive association remained after robustness checks, which adjusted for misclassification of outcome (trust) status and the existence of other temporal pathways.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study offers empirical evidence to support the circular nature of trust/health relationship. The stability of association between prior health status and changes in trust over time differed between cohorts, hinting at the existence of complex pathways rather than a simple positive feedback loop.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden Centre for Economic Demography (CED), Lund University, Malmö, Sweden.
authors.forename: Giuseppe Nicola
authors.initials: GN
authors.lastname: Giordano
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden Centre for Economic Demography (CED), Lund University, Malmö, Sweden.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lindström
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006304:Health Status; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013548:Sweden; D035502:Trust; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: LONGITUDINAL STUDIES; SELF-RATED HEALTH; SOCIAL CAPITAL; SOCIAL EPIDEMIOLOGY; TIME-SERIES