title: Twentieth century turnover of Mexican endemic avifaunas: Landscape change versus climate drivers.
abstract: Numerous climate change effects on biodiversity have been anticipated and documented, including extinctions, range shifts, phenological shifts, and breakdown of interactions in ecological communities, yet the relative balance of different climate drivers and their relationships to other agents of global change (for example, land use and land-use change) remains relatively poorly understood. This study integrated historical and current biodiversity data on distributions of 115 Mexican endemic bird species to document areas of concentrated gains and losses of species in local communities, and then related those changes to climate and land-use drivers. Of all drivers examined, at this relatively coarse spatial resolution, only temperature change had significant impacts on avifaunal turnover; neither precipitation change nor human impact on landscapes had detectable effects. This study, conducted across species' geographic distributions, and covering all of Mexico, thanks to two large-scale biodiversity data sets, could discern relative importance of specific climatic drivers of biodiversity change.
authors.affiliation: Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA.
authors.forename: A Townsend
authors.initials: AT
authors.lastname: Peterson
authors.affiliation: Museo de Zoología, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México Distrito Federal 04510, México.
authors.forename: Adolfo G
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Navarro-Sigüenza
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México Distrito Federal 04510, México.
authors.forename: Enrique
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Martínez-Meyer
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México Distrito Federal 04510, México. ; Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO), Insurgentes Sur-Periférico 4903, Tlalpan, México Distrito Federal 14010, México.
authors.forename: Angela P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Cuervo-Robayo
authors.affiliation: Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO), Insurgentes Sur-Periférico 4903, Tlalpan, México Distrito Federal 14010, México.
authors.forename: Humberto
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Berlanga
authors.affiliation: Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA.
authors.forename: Jorge
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Soberón
keywords: Climate change; Temperature; endemic species; faunal change; land use; precipitation; turnover