title: Projecting Fish Mercury Levels in the Province of Ontario, Canada and the Implications for Fish and Human Health.
abstract: Fish mercury levels appear to be increasing in Ontario, Canada, which covers a wide geographical area and contains about 250 000 lakes including a share of the North American Great Lakes. Here we project 2050 mercury levels in Ontario fish, using the recently measured levels and rates of changes observed during the last 15 years, and present potential implications for fish and human health. Percentage of northern Ontario waterbodies where sublethal effects of mercury on fish can occur may increase by 2050 from 60% to >98% for Walleye (WE), 44% to 59-70% for Northern Pike (NP), and 70% to 76-92% for Lake Trout (LT). Ontario waterbodies with unrestricted fish consumption advisories for the general population may deteriorate from 24-76% to <1-33% for WE, 40-95% to 1-93% for NP, and 39-89% to 18-86% for LT. Similarly, Ontario waterbodies with do not eat advisories for the sensitive population may increase from 32-84% to 73-100% for WE, 9-72% to 12-100% for NP, and 19-71% to 24-89% for LT. Risk to health of Ontario fish and humans consuming these fish may increase substantially over the next few decades if the increasing mercury trend continues and updated advisories based on continued monitoring are not issued/followed.
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough , Scarborough, Ontario Canada M1C 1A4.
authors.forename: Nilima
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Gandhi
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough , Scarborough, Ontario Canada M1C 1A4.|School of the Environment, University of Toronto , Toronto, Ontario Canada M5S 3E8.|Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch, Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change , 125 Resources Road, Toronto, Ontario Canada M9P 3V6.
authors.forename: Satyendra P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Bhavsar
authors.affiliation: School of the Environment, University of Toronto , Toronto, Ontario Canada M5S 3E8.
authors.forename: Rex W K
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough , Scarborough, Ontario Canada M1C 1A4.|School of the Environment, University of Toronto , Toronto, Ontario Canada M5S 3E8.
authors.forename: George B
authors.initials: GB
authors.lastname: Arhonditsis
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D017859:Esocidae; D005399:Fishes; D005506:Food Contamination; D006801:Humans; D060106:Lakes; D008628:Mercury / Q000032:analysis*; D009864:Ontario; D010471:Perches; D011634:Public Health; D014337:Trout; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical; D008628:Mercury