title: Daily ambient temperature and renal colic incidence in Guangzhou, China: a time-series analysis.
abstract: Few previous studies have examined the association between temperature and renal colic in developing regions, especially in China, the largest developing country in the world. We collected daily emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) for renal colic from Guangzhou Emergency Center from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012. We used a distributed-lag nonlinear model in addition to the over-dispersed generalized additive model to investigate the association between daily ambient temperature and renal colic incidence after controlling for seasonality, humidity, public holidays, and day of the week. We identified 3158 EADs for renal colic during the study period. This exposure-response curve was almost flat when the temperature was low and moderate and elevated when the temperature increased over 21 °C. For heat-related effects, the significant risk occurred on the concurrent day and diminished until lag day 7. The cumulative relative risk of hot temperatures (90th percentile) and extremely hot temperatures (99th percentile) over lag days 0-7 was 1.92 (95 % confidence interval, 1.21, 3.05) and 2.45 (95 % confidence interval, 1.50, 3.99) compared with the reference temperature of 21 °C. This time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China, suggested a nonlinear and lagged association between high outdoor temperatures and daily EADs for renal colic. Our findings might have important public health significance to prevent renal colic.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, P.O. Box 249, 130 Dong-An Road, Shanghai, 200032, China.
authors.forename: Changyuan
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease, Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Disease, The First Affiliated Hospital, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510182, China.
authors.forename: Xinyu
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, P.O. Box 249, 130 Dong-An Road, Shanghai, 200032, China. chenrenjie@fudan.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Renjie
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, P.O. Box 249, 130 Dong-An Road, Shanghai, 200032, China.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Cai
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, P.O. Box 249, 130 Dong-An Road, Shanghai, 200032, China.
authors.forename: Xia
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Meng
authors.affiliation: Division of Environment and Health Management, Department of Science, Technology and Standards, Ministry of Environmental Protection of PRC, Beijing, 100035, China.
authors.forename: Yue
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wan
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education, and Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment of the Ministry of Health, Fudan University, P.O. Box 249, 130 Dong-An Road, Shanghai, 200032, China. kanh@fudan.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Haidong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Kan
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D002947:Cities / Q000453:epidemiology; D004632:Emergency Medical Services / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D015994:Incidence; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D012044:Regression Analysis; D056844:Renal Colic / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Emergency ambulance dispatches; Epidemiology; Renal colic; Temperature; Time series