title: An analysis of ozone damage to historical maize and soybean yields in the United States.
abstract: Numerous controlled experiments find that elevated ground-level ozone concentrations ([O3]) damage crops and reduce yield. There have been no estimates of the actual yield losses in the field in the United States from [O3], even though such estimates would be valuable for projections of future food production and for cost-benefit analyses of reducing ground-level [O3]. Regression analysis of historical yield, climate, and [O3] data for the United States were used to determine the loss of production due to O3 for maize (Zea mays) and soybean (Glycine max) from 1980 to 2011, showing that over that period production of rain-fed fields of soybean and maize were reduced by roughly 5% and 10%, respectively, costing approximately $9 billion annually. Maize, thought to be inherently resistant to O3, was at least as sensitive as soybean to O3 damage. Overcoming this yield loss with improved emission controls or more tolerant germplasm could substantially increase world food and feed supply at a time when a global yield jump is urgently needed.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801;
authors.forename: Justin M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: McGrath
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa;
authors.forename: Amy M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Betzelberger
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801; National Center for Supercomputing Applications, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801;
authors.forename: Shaowen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH 44242;
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Shook
authors.affiliation: Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801; Partner Institute for Computational Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences-Max Planck Society, Shanghai 200031, China;
authors.forename: Xin-Guang
authors.initials: XG
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.affiliation: Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801; Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801; Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801; slong@illinois.edu lisa.ainsworth@ars.usda.gov.
authors.forename: Stephen P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Long
authors.affiliation: Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801; Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801; Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Urbana, IL 61801 slong@illinois.edu lisa.ainsworth@ars.usda.gov.
authors.forename: Elizabeth A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Ainsworth
mesh_terms: D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000254:growth & development*; D008954:Models, Biological; D010126:Ozone / Q000633:toxicity*; D013025:Glycine max / Q000254:growth & development*; D014481:United States; D003313:Zea mays / Q000254:growth & development*
chemical_list: D010126:Ozone
keywords: agriculture; air pollution; maize; ozone; soybean