title: Exploring the impact of the 2008 global food crisis on food security among vulnerable households in rural South Africa.
abstract: Recurring food crises endanger the livelihoods of millions of households in developing countries around the globe. Owing to the importance of this issue, we explore recent changes in food security between the years 2004 and 2010 in a rural district in Northeastern South Africa. Our study window spans the time of the 2008 global food crises and allows the investigation of its impacts on rural South African populations. Grounded in the sustainable livelihood framework, we examine differences in food security trajectories among vulnerable sub populations. A unique panel data set of 8,147 households, provided by the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Agincourt HDSS), allows us to employ a longitudinal multilevel modeling approach to estimate adjusted growth curves for the differential change in food security across time. We observe an overall improvement in food security that leveled off after 2008, most likely resulting from the global food crisis. In addition, we discover significant differences in food security trajectories for various sub populations. For example, female-headed households and those living in areas with better access to natural resources differentially improved their food security situation, compared to male-headed households and those households with lower levels of natural resource access. However, former Mozambican refugees witnessed a decline in food security. Therefore, poverty alleviation programs for the Agincourt region should work to improve the food security of vulnerable households, such as former Mozambican refugees.
authors.affiliation: University of Colorado at Boulder, Institute of Behavioral Science, CU Population Center, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Raphael J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Nawrotzki
authors.affiliation: University of Colorado at Denver, Colorado School of Public Health, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Kristin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Robson
authors.affiliation: University of Colorado at Anschutz Medical Campus, Colorado School of Public Health, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Margaret J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Gutilla
authors.affiliation: University of Colorado at Boulder, Institute of Behavioral Science, CU Population Center, U.S.A., University of Witwatersrand, School of Public Health, MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), South Africa.
authors.forename: Lori M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Hunter
authors.affiliation: University of the Witwatersrand, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, South Africa.
authors.forename: Wayne
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Twine
authors.affiliation: University of Colorado at Boulder, Department of Geography, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Petra
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Norlund
keywords: Agincourt; Food security; Global food crisis; Growth curve models; Natural resources; South Africa