title: Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.
abstract: Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.
authors.affiliation: Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UK.|Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Drake Circus, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK.|Marine Biological Association of the UK, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UK.
authors.forename: Philip C
authors.initials: PC
authors.lastname: Reid
authors.affiliation: Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Überlandstrasse 133, CH-8600, Dübendorf, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Renata E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Hari
authors.affiliation: Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UK.|Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d'Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG), UMR 8187 LOG, Université des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, BP 80, 62930, Wimereux, France.
authors.forename: Grégory
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Beaugrand
authors.affiliation: Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Überlandstrasse 133, CH-8600, Dübendorf, Switzerland.
authors.forename: David M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Livingstone
authors.affiliation: WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Flüelastrasse 11, CH-7260, Davos, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Marty
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Limnological Institute, University of Konstanz, 78464, Konstanz, Germany.
authors.forename: Dietmar
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Straile
authors.affiliation: Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.|Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, L'Orme des Merisiers, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
authors.forename: Jonathan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Barichivich
authors.affiliation: Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UK.|Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d'Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG), UMR 8187 LOG, Université des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, BP 80, 62930, Wimereux, France.
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Goberville
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecosystem Research, Leibniz- Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 301, D-12587, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Rita
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Adrian
authors.affiliation: Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Osaka Prefecture University, Sakai, 599-8531, Japan.
authors.forename: Yasuyuki
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Aono
authors.affiliation: Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada Ouranos, 550 Sherbrooke St. West, 19th Floor, Montréal, QC, H3A 1B9, Canada.
authors.forename: Ross
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: Code 917, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA.
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Foster
authors.affiliation: National Centers for Environment Information - Center for Weather and Climate, Federal Building, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC, 28801, USA.|P.P. Shirshov Institute for Oceanology, RAS, 36 Nakhimovsky Avenue, 117997, Moscow, Russia.
authors.forename: Pavel
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Groisman
authors.affiliation: Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, PL1 2PB, UK.
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Hélaouët
authors.affiliation: Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, 128 Academia Road, Section 2, Nankang, Taipei, 115, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Huang-Hsiung
authors.initials: HH
authors.lastname: Hsu
authors.affiliation: Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Drake Circus, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Kirby
authors.affiliation: Met Office, Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, UK.
authors.forename: Jeff
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Knight
authors.affiliation: Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Biologische Anstalt Helgoland, Kurpromenade 201, 27498, Helgoland, Germany.
authors.forename: Alexandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kraberg
authors.affiliation: College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.|Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing, 100875, China.
authors.forename: Jianping
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Weather Forecast Center, Central Weather Bureau, 64 Gongyuan Road, Taipei, 10048, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Tzu-Ting
authors.initials: TT
authors.lastname: Lo
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 685 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.
authors.forename: Ranga B
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: Myneni
authors.affiliation: Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Überlandstrasse 133, CH-8600, Dübendorf, Switzerland.|Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, D-21502, Geesthacht, Germany.
authors.forename: Ryan P
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6572-4742
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: North
authors.affiliation: Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve, Tropical Science Center, Santa Elena, Puntarenas, 5655-73, Costa Rica.
authors.forename: J Alan
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Pounds
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 71 C, 60-625, Poznań, Poland.|Faculty of Engineering, Environment and Computing, Coventry University, Coventry, CV1 5FB, UK.|Fachgebiet für Ökoklimatologie, Technische Universität München, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354, Freising, Germany.|Institute for Advanced Study, Technische Universität München, Lichtenbergstrasse 2a, 85748, Garching, Germany.
authors.forename: Tim
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sparks
authors.affiliation: Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Ch. de l'Aérologie 1, CH-1530, Payerne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: René
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Stübi
authors.affiliation: Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Yushan Road 5, Qingdao, 266003, China.|Japan Sea National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, Chuo-ku, Niigata, 951-8121, Japan.
authors.forename: Yongjun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.affiliation: Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Biologische Anstalt Helgoland, Kurpromenade 201, 27498, Helgoland, Germany.
authors.forename: Karen H
authors.initials: KH
authors.lastname: Wiltshire
authors.affiliation: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
authors.forename: Dong
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.|Center for Applications of Spatial Information Technologies in Public Health, Beijing, 100101, China.
authors.forename: Zaichun
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhu
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change / Q000266:history*; D049673:History, 20th Century; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D025341:Principal Component Analysis; D013696:Temperature; D018707:Volcanic Eruptions
keywords: Earth systems; climate; global change; regime shift; statistical analysis; time series; volcanic forcing