title: RETRACTED: Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species' distribution and abundance changes.
abstract: The responses of animals and plants to recent climate change vary greatly from species to species, but attempts to understand this variation have met with limited success. This has led to concerns that predictions of responses are inherently uncertain because of the complexity of interacting drivers and biotic interactions. However, we show for an exemplar group of 155 Lepidoptera species that about 60% of the variation among species in their abundance trends over the past four decades can be explained by species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Distribution changes were less well predicted, but nonetheless, up to 53% of the variation was explained. We found that species vary in their overall sensitivity to climate and respond to different components of the climate despite ostensibly experiencing the same climate changes. Hence, species have undergone different levels of population "forcing" (exposure), driving variation among species in their national-scale abundance and distribution trends. We conclude that variation in species' responses to recent climate change may be more predictable than previously recognized.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK.
authors.forename: Georgina
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Palmer
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK.
authors.forename: Jane K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Hill
authors.affiliation: Butterfly Conservation, Manor Yard, East Lulworth, Wareham, Dorset BH20 5QP, UK.
authors.forename: Tom M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Brereton
authors.affiliation: AgroEcology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK.
authors.forename: David R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Brooks
authors.affiliation: AgroEcology Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK. ; Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9EZ, UK.
authors.forename: Jason W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Chapman
authors.affiliation: Butterfly Conservation, Manor Yard, East Lulworth, Wareham, Dorset BH20 5QP, UK.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Fox
authors.affiliation: NERC (Natural Environment Research Council) Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK.
authors.forename: Tom H
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: Oliver
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK.
authors.forename: Chris D
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Thomas
keywords: Lepidoptera; anthropocene; biogeographic responses; climatic variability; colonisation; environmental change; extinction; population dynamics; range shifts; sensitivity