title: Coral reef fish populations can persist without immigration.
abstract: Determining the conditions under which populations may persist requires accurate estimates of demographic parameters, including immigration, local reproductive success, and mortality rates. In marine populations, empirical estimates of these parameters are rare, due at least in part to the pelagic dispersal stage common to most marine organisms. Here, we evaluate population persistence and turnover for a population of orange clownfish, Amphiprion percula, at Kimbe Island in Papua New Guinea. All fish in the population were sampled and genotyped on five occasions at 2-year intervals spanning eight years. The genetic data enabled estimates of reproductive success retained in the same population (reproductive success to self-recruitment), reproductive success exported to other subpopulations (reproductive success to local connectivity), and immigration and mortality rates of sub-adults and adults. Approximately 50% of the recruits were assigned to parents from the Kimbe Island population and this was stable through the sampling period. Stability in the proportion of local and immigrant settlers is likely due to: low annual mortality rates and stable egg production rates, and the short larval stages and sensory capacities of reef fish larvae. Biannual mortality rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.55 and varied significantly spatially. We used these data to parametrize a model that estimated the probability of the Kimbe Island population persisting in the absence of immigration. The Kimbe Island population was found to persist without significant immigration. Model results suggest the island population persists because the largest of the subpopulations are maintained due to having low mortality and high self-recruitment rates. Our results enable managers to appropriately target and scale actions to maximize persistence likelihood as disturbance frequencies increase.
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Excellence 'CORAIL', USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD CRIOBE, Perpignan, France oceane.salles@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Océane C
authors.initials: OC
authors.lastname: Salles
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Excellence 'CORAIL', USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD CRIOBE, Perpignan, France SymbioSeas and Marine Applied Research Center, Wilmington, NC 28411, USA.
authors.forename: Jeffrey A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Maynard
authors.affiliation: Université de Montpellier 2, UMR 5149 I3M, Pl Eugene Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France.
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Joannides
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Pennsylvania, 800 Blockley Hall, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
authors.forename: Corentin M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Barbu
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Chile.
authors.forename: Pablo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Saenz-Agudelo
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Excellence 'CORAIL', USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD CRIOBE, Perpignan, France.
authors.forename: Glenn R
authors.initials: GR
authors.lastname: Almany
authors.affiliation: Red Sea Research Center, Division of Biological and Environmental Sciences and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955, Saudi Arabia.
authors.forename: Michael L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Berumen
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
authors.forename: Simon R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Thorrold
authors.affiliation: ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Geoffrey P
authors.initials: GP
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Excellence 'CORAIL', USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD CRIOBE, Perpignan, France.
authors.forename: Serge
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Planes
mesh_terms: D025041:Animal Migration; D000818:Animals; D057894:Coral Reefs; D004247:DNA / Q000032:analysis; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D010219:Papua New Guinea; D010473:Perciformes / Q000235:genetics / Q000502:physiology*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012098:Reproduction
chemical_list: D004247:DNA
keywords: Amphiprion percula; long-term monitoring; parentage analysis; persistence; population demography; self-recruitment