title: Mapping Physiological Suitability Limits for Malaria in Africa Under Climate Change.
abstract: We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.
authors.affiliation: 1 Department of Geography, University of Florida , Gainesville, Florida.|2 Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida , Gainesville, Florida.|3 Center for Global Health and Translational Science, Department of Immunology and Microbiology, Upstate Medical University , Syracuse, New York.|4 School of Life Sciences, College of Agriculture , Engineering, and Science University of KwaZulu-Natal , Durban, South Africa .
authors.forename: Sadie J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Ryan
authors.affiliation: 5 Hydrological Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center , Greenbelt, Maryland.
authors.forename: Amy
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: McNally
authors.affiliation: 6 Division of Integrative Biology, University of South Florida , Tampa, Florida.
authors.forename: Leah R
authors.initials: LR
authors.lastname: Johnson
authors.affiliation: 7 Department of Biology, Stanford University , Stanford, California.
authors.forename: Erin A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Mordecai
authors.affiliation: 8 Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University , New Brunswick, New Jersey.
authors.forename: Tal
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ben-Horin
authors.affiliation: 9 ISGlobal, Barcelona Ctr. Int. Health Res. (CRESIB), Hospital Clínic-Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain .
authors.forename: Krijn
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Paaijmans
authors.affiliation: 10 Western Ecological Research Center, US Geological Survey, Marine Science Institute, University of California , Santa Barbara, California.|11 Marine Science Institute, University of California , Santa Barbara, California.
authors.forename: Kevin D
authors.initials: KD
authors.lastname: Lafferty
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D000852:Anopheles / Q000469:parasitology* / Q000502:physiology; D057231:Climate Change; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000469:parasitology* / Q000502:physiology; D016778:Malaria, Falciparum / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010963:Plasmodium falciparum / Q000502:physiology*; D011156:Population Density; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature
keywords: Africa; Climate change; Malaria; Physiological response