title: IV-treated pulmonary exacerbations in the prior year: An important independent risk factor for future pulmonary exacerbation in cystic fibrosis.
abstract: Single-center analyses have suggested that the number of CF pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) treated with intravenous antibiotics an individual has experienced in the prior year is significantly associated with their future PEx hazard.
  
  
  
  We studied Prior-year PEx association with future PEx hazard by Cox proportional hazards regression among CF Foundation Patient Registry patients who experienced PEx after Jan 1, 2010.
  
  
  
  Among 13,579 patients, those with 1, 2, 3, or ≥4 Prior-year PEx treated with intravenous antibiotics were at 1.8, 2.9, 4.8, and 8.7 higher PEx hazard vs those without (P<.0001). Adjustment with significant demographic and clinical covariates (univariate P≤.0001) reduced Prior-year PEx hazard ratios to 1.6, 2.4, 3.6, and 6.0 (P<.0001). No other covariates had adjusted hazard ratios of >1.7.
  
  
  
  Prior-year PEx strongly associate with future PEx hazard and should be accounted for in prospective trials where treatment-associated change in PEx hazard is an efficacy outcome.
authors.affiliation: Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, OH, USA. Electronic address: drv15@case.edu.
authors.forename: Donald R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: VanDevanter
authors.affiliation: Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, OH, USA.
authors.forename: Nathan J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Morris
authors.affiliation: Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, OH, USA.
authors.forename: Michael W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Konstan
mesh_terms: D061605:Administration, Intravenous; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003550:Cystic Fibrosis / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000503:physiopathology; D017050:Episode of Care; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012141:Respiratory Tract Infections / Q000188:drug therapy*; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D000067251:Symptom Flare Up; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents
keywords: Cystic fibrosis; Exacerbation hazard; Modeling; Pulmonary exacerbation; Risk factors