title: Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations.
abstract: Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lying on bedrock below sea level may be vulnerable to marine-ice-sheet instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence that MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE), which contains ice equivalent to more than a metre of global sea-level rise. If triggered in other regions, the centennial to millennial contribution could be several metres. Physically plausible projections are challenging: numerical models with sufficient spatial resolution to simulate grounding-line processes have been too computationally expensive to generate large ensembles for uncertainty assessment, and lower-resolution model projections rely on parameterizations that are only loosely constrained by present day changes. Here we project that the Antarctic ice sheet will contribute up to 30 cm sea-level equivalent by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200 (95% quantiles) where the ASE dominates. Our process-based, statistical approach gives skewed and complex probability distributions (single mode, 10 cm, at 2100; two modes, 49 cm and 6 cm, at 2200). The dependence of sliding on basal friction is a key unknown: nonlinear relationships favour higher contributions. Results are conditional on assessments of MISI risk on the basis of projected triggers under the climate scenario A1B (ref. 9), although sensitivity to these is limited by theoretical and topographical constraints on the rate and extent of ice loss. We find that contributions are restricted by a combination of these constraints, calibration with success in simulating observed ASE losses, and low assessed risk in some basins. Our assessment suggests that upper-bound estimates from low-resolution models and physical arguments (up to a metre by 2100 and around one and a half by 2200) are implausible under current understanding of physical mechanisms and potential triggers.
authors.affiliation: CNRS, LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, France.|Université Grenoble Alpes, LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, France.
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ritz
authors.affiliation: Department of Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, Faculty of Science, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UK.|Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.
authors.forename: Tamsin L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Edwards
authors.affiliation: CNRS, LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, France.|Université Grenoble Alpes, LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, France.
authors.forename: Gaël
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Durand
authors.affiliation: Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.
authors.forename: Antony J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Payne
authors.affiliation: CNRS, LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, France.|Université Grenoble Alpes, LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, France.
authors.forename: Vincent
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Peyaud
authors.affiliation: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
authors.forename: Richard C A
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Hindmarsh
mesh_terms: D000864:Antarctic Regions; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002138:Calibration; D057232:Global Warming / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D046448:Ice Cover; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D019370:Observation; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D012623:Seawater / Q000032:analysis*