title: Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures.
abstract: Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.
authors.affiliation: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, USA. ; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
authors.forename: Wei
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Mei
authors.affiliation: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, USA.
authors.forename: Shang-Ping
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Xie
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
authors.forename: François
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Primeau
authors.affiliation: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
authors.forename: James C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: McWilliams
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Milano-Bicocca, I-20126 Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Claudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Pasquero
keywords: Climate Variability and Change; air-sea interaction; hurricanes; intensification duration; intensification rate; sea surface temperature; tropical cyclones; typhoon intensification; upper-ocean warming