title: Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route.
abstract: During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR.
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Polar Research, Tokyo, Japan.|Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan.|SOKENDAI (Graduate University for Advanced Studies), Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Jun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Inoue
authors.affiliation: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Akira
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Yamazaki
authors.affiliation: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Jun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ono
authors.affiliation: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Klaus
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Dethloff
authors.affiliation: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Marion
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Maturilli
authors.affiliation: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Roland
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Neuber
authors.affiliation: Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada.
authors.forename: Patti
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Edwards
authors.affiliation: The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan.
authors.forename: Hajime
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yamaguchi