title: Prevalence of disability in Australian elderly: Impact of trends in obesity and diabetes.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We aimed to estimate the impact of past and future changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence in mid-life on disability prevalence for adult Australians.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analysed data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab) including participants aged 45-64years, disability-free at baseline (1999/2000) with disability information at follow-up (2011/12) (n=2107). We used coefficients from multinomial logistic regression to predict 10-year probabilities of disability and death from baseline predictors (age, sex, obesity, smoking, diabetes and hypertension). We estimated the prevalence of disability attributable to past (1980) and expected future (2025) changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence using the life table approach.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We estimated that the prevalence of disability for those aged between 55 and 74years would have been 1697 cases per 100,000 persons less in 2010 (10.3% less) if the rates of obesity and diabetes observed in 2000 had been as low as the levels observed in 1980. However, if instead the prevalence of obesity and diabetes had been as high as the levels expected in 2025, then the prevalence of disability would have been an additional 2173 per 100,000 persons (an additional 13.2%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We demonstrate, for the first time, a substantial potential impact of obesity and diabetes trends on disability amongst those aged 55-74years. In Australian adults by 2025 we estimate that around 26% of disability cases would have been avoidable if there had been no change in obesity and diabetes prevalence since 1980. A similar impact is likely around the world in developed countries.
authors.affiliation: Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Level 4, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne 3004, Australia; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 5, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne 3004, Australia. Electronic address: Evelyn.Wong@bakeridi.edu.au.
authors.forename: Evelyn
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Wong
authors.affiliation: The George Institute for Global Health, University of Sydney, Level 10, King George V Building, 83-117 Missenden Rd, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia; The George Institute for Global Health, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Woodward
authors.affiliation: School of Health and Social Development, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood 3125, Australia.
authors.forename: Christopher
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Stevenson
authors.affiliation: Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Level 4, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne 3004, Australia; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 5, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne 3004, Australia.
authors.forename: Kathryn
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Backholer
authors.affiliation: Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Level 4, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne 3004, Australia.
authors.forename: Danja
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Sarink
authors.affiliation: Baker IDI Heart and Diabetes Institute, Level 4, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne 3004, Australia; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 5, 99 Commercial Road, Melbourne 3004, Australia.
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Peeters
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D048909:Diabetes Complications; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension; D008019:Life Style; D015993:Life Tables; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires
keywords: Ageing; Diabetes; Disability; Epidemiological modelling; Life table; Obesity; Prevalence