title: Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes.
abstract: This study addresses the greatest concern facing the large-scale integration of wind, water, and solar (WWS) into a power grid: the high cost of avoiding load loss caused by WWS variability and uncertainty. It uses a new grid integration model and finds low-cost, no-load-loss, nonunique solutions to this problem on electrification of all US energy sectors (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) while accounting for wind and solar time series data from a 3D global weather model that simulates extreme events and competition among wind turbines for available kinetic energy. Solutions are obtained by prioritizing storage for heat (in soil and water); cold (in ice and water); and electricity (in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen), and using demand response. No natural gas, biofuels, nuclear power, or stationary batteries are needed. The resulting 2050-2055 US electricity social cost for a full system is much less than for fossil fuels. These results hold for many conditions, suggesting that low-cost, reliable 100% WWS systems should work many places worldwide.
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; jacobson@stanford.edu.
authors.forename: Mark Z
authors.initials: MZ
authors.lastname: Jacobson
authors.affiliation: Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
authors.forename: Mark A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Delucchi
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
authors.forename: Mary A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Cameron
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
authors.forename: Bethany A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Frew
keywords: climate change; energy cost; energy security; grid stability; renewable energy