title: Childhood asthma prediction models: a systematic review.
abstract: Early identification of children at risk of developing asthma at school age is crucial, but the usefulness of childhood asthma prediction models in clinical practice is still unclear. We systematically reviewed all existing prediction models to identify preschool children with asthma-like symptoms at risk of developing asthma at school age. Studies were included if they developed a new prediction model or updated an existing model in children aged 4 years or younger with asthma-like symptoms, with assessment of asthma done between 6 and 12 years of age. 12 prediction models were identified in four types of cohorts of preschool children: those with health-care visits, those with parent-reported symptoms, those at high risk of asthma, or children in the general population. Four basic models included non-invasive, easy-to-obtain predictors only, notably family history, allergic disease comorbidities or precursors of asthma, and severity of early symptoms. Eight extended models included additional clinical tests, mostly specific IgE determination. Some models could better predict asthma development and other models could better rule out asthma development, but the predictive performance of no single model stood out in both aspects simultaneously. This finding suggests that there is a large proportion of preschool children with wheeze for which prediction of asthma development is difficult.
authors.affiliation: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands. Electronic address: H.A.Smit@umcutrecht.nl.
authors.forename: Henriette A
authors.initials: HA
authors.lastname: Smit
authors.affiliation: Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Barcelona, Spain; Hospital del Mar Research Institute (IMIM), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain; Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, University of Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Mariona
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pinart
authors.affiliation: Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Barcelona, Spain; Hospital del Mar Research Institute (IMIM), Barcelona, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain; Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, University of Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Josep M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Antó
authors.affiliation: Institute of Social Medicine, Epidemiology and Health Economics, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; Institute of Clinical Epidemiology and Biometry, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Keil
authors.affiliation: WHO Collaborating Center for Asthma and Rhinitis, Montpellier, France; University Hospital of Montpellier, Hôpital Arnaud de Villeneuve, Montpellier, France.
authors.forename: Jean
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bousquet
authors.affiliation: Department of Paediatrics, Oslo University Hospital and University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: Kai H
authors.initials: KH
authors.lastname: Carlsen
authors.affiliation: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands; Dutch Cochrane Centre, Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Karel G M
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Moons
authors.affiliation: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands; Dutch Cochrane Centre, Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Lotty
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hooft
authors.affiliation: Department of Paediatrics, Oslo University Hospital and University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: Karin C Lødrup
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Carlsen
mesh_terms: D001249:Asthma / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002648:Child; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018570:Risk Assessment