title: Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.
abstract: Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector.
authors.affiliation: EPAL, SA, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres, Av. Liberdade, 24, 1250-144 Lisboa, Portugal. Electronic address: analuis@adp.pt.
authors.forename: Ana
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Luís
authors.affiliation: Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, UK. Electronic address: f.lickorish@cranfield.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Fiona
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Lickorish
authors.affiliation: Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, UK. Electronic address: s.pollard@Cranfield.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Pollard
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D060766:Drinking Water / Q000032:analysis*; D005544:Forecasting; D011174:Portugal; D012308:Risk Management; D014881:Water Supply / Q000191:economics
chemical_list: D060766:Drinking Water
keywords: Future scenarios; Master planning; Morphological analysis; Strategic risk