title: Predicting mortality in bronchiectasis using bronchiectasis severity index and FACED scores: a 19-year cohort study.
abstract: The clinical course of bronchiectasis is unpredictable, posing a challenge both in clinical practice and in research. Two mortality prediction scores, the bronchiectasis severity index (BSI) and FACED scores, have recently been developed. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of these scores to predict long-term mortality and to compare the two scores.The study was a single-centre retrospective cohort analysis consisting of 91 subjects originally recruited in 1994. BSI and FACED scores were calculated at the time of enrolment and long-term mortality ascertained. Data was available for 74 patients with a median of 18.8 years of follow-up.Both scoring systems had similar predictive power for 5-year mortality (area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) 0.79 for BSI and 0.8 for FACED). Both scores were able to predict 15-year mortality with the FACED score showing slightly superior predictive power (AUC 0.82 versus 0.69, p=0.0495).This study provides further validation of the FACED and BSI scores for the prediction of mortality in bronchiectasis and demonstrates their utility over a longer period than originally described. Whilst both scores had excellent predictive power, the FACED score was superior for 15-year mortality.
authors.affiliation: Host Defence Unit, Royal Brompton Hospital, London, UK These authors contributed equally to this paper.
authors.forename: Huw C
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Ellis
authors.affiliation: Host Defence Unit, Royal Brompton Hospital, London, UK Imperial College, London, UK These authors contributed equally to this paper.
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Cowman
authors.affiliation: St George's Medical School, London, UK.
authors.forename: Michele
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fernandes
authors.affiliation: Host Defence Unit, Royal Brompton Hospital, London, UK Imperial College, London, UK.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Wilson
authors.affiliation: Host Defence Unit, Royal Brompton Hospital, London, UK Imperial College, London, UK m.loebinger@rbht.nhs.uk.
authors.forename: Michael R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Loebinger
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015992:Body Mass Index; D001987:Bronchiectasis / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000401:mortality* / Q000503:physiopathology; D002353:Carrier State / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005541:Forced Expiratory Volume; D006193:Haemophilus influenzae; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011550:Pseudomonas aeruginosa; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013296:Streptococcus pneumoniae; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed