title: Design and prospective evaluation of a risk-based surveillance system for shrimp grow-out farms in northeast Brazil.
abstract: The farming of Pacific white shrimp Litopennaeus vannamei in northeast Brazil, has proven to be a promising sector. However, the farming of Pacific white shrimp in Brazil has been affected negatively by the occurrence of viral diseases, threatening this sector's expansion and sustainability. For this reason, the drafting of a surveillance system for early detection and definition of freedom from viral diseases, whose occurrence could result in high economic loses, is of the utmost importance. The stochastic model AquaVigil was implemented to prospectively evaluate different surveillance strategies to determine freedom from disease and identify the strategy with the lowest sampling efforts, making the best use of available resources through risk-based surveillance. The worked example presented was designed for regional application for the state of Ceará and can easily be applied to other Brazilian states. The AquaVigil model can analyse any risk-based surveillance system that considers a similar outline to the strategy here presented.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Department of Preventive Veterinary Medicine and Animal Health, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of São Paulo, Av. Prof. Dr. Orlando Marques de Paiva, 87, University City, CEP: 05508270 Sao Paulo, Brazil. Electronic address: ritinha@usp.br.
authors.forename: Ana Rita
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Marques
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Immunoparasitology, Department of Parasitology, Institute of Biomedical Sciences, University of São Paulo, Av. Prof. Lineu Prestes, 1374, Laboratory 131, University City, CEP: 05508-900 Sao Paulo, Brazil.
authors.forename: Marcelo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pereira
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Fisheries and Aquaculture Collaborative Network in Veterinary Epidemiology - AquaEpi, Brazil.
authors.forename: Jose Soares
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Ferreira Neto
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Fisheries and Aquaculture Collaborative Network in Veterinary Epidemiology - AquaEpi, Brazil.
authors.forename: Fernando
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Ferreira
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D017756:Aquaculture / Q000379:methods*; D001938:Brazil; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D033561:Penaeidae / Q000821:virology*; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D018406:Virus Physiological Phenomena
keywords: AquaVigil; Risk-based surveillance; Shrimp aquaculture Brazil; Surveillance system shrimp aquaculture