title: Controlling range expansion in habitat networks by adaptively targeting source populations.
abstract: Controlling the spread of invasive species, pests, and pathogens is often logistically limited to interventions that target specific locations at specific periods. However, in complex, highly connected systems, such as marine environments connected by ocean currents, populations spread dynamically in both space and time via transient connectivity links. This results in nondeterministic future distributions of species in which local populations emerge dynamically and concurrently over a large area. The challenge, therefore, is to choose intervention locations that will maximize the effectiveness of the control efforts. We propose a novel method to manage dynamic species invasions and outbreaks that identifies the intervention locations most likely to curtail population expansion by selectively targeting local populations most likely to expand their future range. Critically, at any point during the development of the invasion or outbreak, the method identifies the local intervention that maximizes the long-term benefit across the ecosystem by restricting species' potential to spread. In so doing, the method adaptively selects the intervention targets under dynamically changing circumstances. To illustrate the effectiveness of the method we applied it to controlling the spread of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster sp.) outbreaks across Australia's Great Barrier Reef. Application of our method resulted in an 18-fold relative improvement in management outcomes compared with a random targeting of reefs in putative starfish control scenarios. Although we focused on applying the method to reducing the spread of an unwanted species, it can also be used to facilitate the spread of desirable species through connectivity networks. For example, the method could be used to select those fragments of habitat most likely to rebuild a population if they were sufficiently well protected.
authors.affiliation: Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences, Goddard Building, The University of Queensland, Brisbane St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia.|ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Goddard Building, The University of Queensland, Brisbane St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia.|Australian Institute of Marine Science, 1526 Cape Cleveland Road, Townsville, QLD, 4810, Australia.
authors.forename: Karlo
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hock
authors.affiliation: Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences, Goddard Building, The University of Queensland, Brisbane St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia.|ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Goddard Building, The University of Queensland, Brisbane St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Nicholas H
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Wolff
authors.affiliation: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, 2-68 Flinders Street, Townsville, QLD, 4810, Australia.
authors.forename: Roger
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Beeden
authors.affiliation: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, 2-68 Flinders Street, Townsville, QLD, 4810, Australia.
authors.forename: Jessica
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hoey
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, 3-4 Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS, 7004, Australia.
authors.forename: Scott A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Condie
authors.affiliation: Australian Institute of Marine Science, 1526 Cape Cleveland Road, Townsville, QLD, 4810, Australia.
authors.forename: Kenneth R N
authors.initials: KR
authors.lastname: Anthony
authors.affiliation: ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, the NERP Environmental Decisions Hub, Centre for Biodiversity & Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, Goddard Building, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Hugh P
authors.initials: HP
authors.lastname: Possingham
authors.affiliation: Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences, Goddard Building, The University of Queensland, Brisbane St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia.|ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Goddard Building, The University of Queensland, Brisbane St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Peter J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Mumby
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D037421:Anthozoa; D001315:Australia; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013215:Starfish
keywords: Acanthaster; adaptive management; conectividad; connectivity; decision theory; dynamic digraph; dígrafo dinámico; invasives; invasoras; manejo adaptativo; redes espaciales; spatial network; teoría de la decisión