title: A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.
abstract: The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought.
authors.affiliation: CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS - Université de Montpellier - Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier - EPHE - CNRS, 1919 route de Mende, 34293, Montpellier Cedex 5, France.|Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR MARBEC 248, Marine Biodiversity, Exploitation and Conservation. Avenue Jean Monnet, CS 30171, 34203, Sète cedex, France.
authors.forename: Sophie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Monsarrat
authors.affiliation: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN. Depto. de Botânica, Ecologia e Zoologia - DBEZ, Campus Universitário s/n, Lagoa Nova. Cx postal 1524., CEP 59.098-970, Natal (RN), Brazil.
authors.forename: M Grazia
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Pennino
authors.affiliation: World Whaling History, Redding, CA, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Tim D
authors.initials: TD
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Okapi Wildlife Associates, Hudson, Quebec, Canada.
authors.forename: Randall R
authors.initials: RR
authors.lastname: Reeves
authors.affiliation: Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, P.O. Box 1346, Gloucester Point, VA, 23062, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Christine N
authors.initials: CN
authors.lastname: Meynard
authors.affiliation: Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, P.O. Box 1346, Gloucester Point, VA, 23062, U.S.A.
authors.forename: David M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Kaplan
authors.affiliation: CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS - Université de Montpellier - Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier - EPHE - CNRS, 1919 route de Mende, 34293, Montpellier Cedex 5, France.
authors.forename: Ana S L
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Rodrigues
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001267:Atlantic Ocean; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D056727:Endangered Species; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014907:Whales
keywords: Eubalaena; caza de ballenas; feeding grounds; generalized additive modeling; historical baseline; línea base histórica; modelado aditivo generalizado; population size; tamaño de población; whaling; áreas de alimentación