title: Effects of Model Formulation on Estimates of Health in Individual Right Whales (Eubalaena glacialis).
abstract: Right whales are vulnerable to many sources of anthropogenic disturbance including ship strikes, entanglement with fishing gear, and anthropogenic noise. The effect of these factors on individual health is unclear. A statistical model using photographic evidence of health was recently built to infer the true or hidden health of individual right whales. However, two important prior assumptions about the role of missing data and unexplained variance on the estimates were not previously assessed. Here we tested these factors by varying prior assumptions and model formulation. We found sensitivity to each assumption and used the output to make guidelines on future model formulation.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling (CREEM), The Observatory, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9LZ, UK. rss5@st-andrews.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Robert S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Schick
authors.affiliation: John H. Prescott Marine Laboratory, New England Aquarium, Boston, MA, 02110, USA. skraus@neaq.org.
authors.forename: Scott D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Kraus
authors.affiliation: John H. Prescott Marine Laboratory, New England Aquarium, Boston, MA, 02110, USA. rrolland@neaq.org.
authors.forename: Rosalind M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Rolland
authors.affiliation: John H. Prescott Marine Laboratory, New England Aquarium, Boston, MA, 02110, USA. aknowlton@neaq.org.
authors.forename: Amy R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Knowlton
authors.affiliation: John H. Prescott Marine Laboratory, New England Aquarium, Boston, MA, 02110, USA. phamiltn@neaq.org.
authors.forename: Philip K
authors.initials: PK
authors.lastname: Hamilton
authors.affiliation: John H. Prescott Marine Laboratory, New England Aquarium, Boston, MA, 02110, USA. hpettis@neaq.org.
authors.forename: Heather M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Pettis
authors.affiliation: Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling (CREEM), The Observatory, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9LZ, UK. len@mcs.st-and.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Len
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.affiliation: Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling (CREEM), The Observatory, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9LZ, UK. jh17@st-andrews.ac.uk.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Harwood
authors.affiliation: Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA. jimclark@duke.edu.
authors.forename: James S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Clark
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D006262:Health; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014907:Whales / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: Bayesian; Body condition; Missing data; Photo identification; Process error