title: Colorectal Cancer Mortality Characteristics and Predictions in China, 1991-2011.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To identify the epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer mortality in China during the period of 1991-2011, and forecast the future five-year trend.
  
  
  METHODS
  Mortality data for colorectal cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe epidemiological characteristics in terms of age group, gender, and rural/urban residence. Trend surface analysis was performed to analyze the geographical distribution of colorectal cancer. Four models including curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling and joinpoint regression were applied to forecast the trends for the future five years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Since 1991 the colorectal cancer mortality rate increased yearly, and our results showed that the trend would continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate in males was higher than that of females and the rate in urban areas was higher than in rural areas. The mortality rate was relatively low for individuals less than 60 years of age, but increased dramatically afterwards. People living in the northeastern China provinces or in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for colorectal cancer than those living in middle or western China provinces.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The steadily increasing mortality of colorectal cancer in China will become a substantial public health burden in the foreseeable future. For this increasing trend to be controlled, further efforts should concentrate on educating the general public to increase prevention and early detection by screening. More effective prevention and management strategies are needed in higher mortality areas (Eastern parts of China) and high-risk populations (60+ years old).
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Xinling Road, Shantou, Guangdong, China E-mail : klin@stu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Jia-Ying
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.forename: Hong-Li
authors.initials: HL
authors.lastname: Dong
authors.forename: Xue-Jin
authors.initials: XJ
authors.lastname: Sang
authors.forename: Bin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Xie
authors.forename: Ku-Sheng
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.forename: Pei-Ling
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Du
authors.forename: Zhen-Xi
authors.initials: ZX
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Xiao-Yue
authors.initials: XY
authors.lastname: Jia
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Lin
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D005260:Female; D005843:Geography; D006266:Health Education; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D012424:Rural Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D012737:Sex Factors; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends