title: Impacts of IOD, ENSO and ENSO Modoki on the Australian Winter Wheat Yields in Recent Decades.
abstract: Impacts of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), two different types of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki, on the year-to-year winter wheat yield variations in Australia have been investigated. It is found that IOD plays a dominant role in the recent three decades; the wheat yield is reduced (increased) by -28.4% (12.8%) in the positive (negative) IOD years. Although the canonical ENSO appears to be responsible for the wheat yield variations, its influences are largely counted by IOD owing to their frequent co-occurrence. In contrast, the ENSO Modoki may have its distinct impacts on the wheat yield variations, but they are much smaller compared to those of IOD. Both the observed April-May and the predicted September-November IOD indices by the SINTEX-F ocean-atmosphere coupled model initialized on April 1st just before the sowing season explain ~15% of the observed year-to-year wheat yield variances. The present study may lead to a possible scheme for predicting wheat yield variations in Australia in advance by use of simple climate mode indices.
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.|Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan.
authors.forename: Chaoxia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Yuan
authors.affiliation: Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan.
authors.forename: Toshio
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Yamagata