title: Innate biology versus lifestyle behaviour in the aetiology of obesity and type 2 diabetes: the GLACIER Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We compared the ability of genetic (established type 2 diabetes, fasting glucose, 2 h glucose and obesity variants) and modifiable lifestyle (diet, physical activity, smoking, alcohol and education) risk factors to predict incident type 2 diabetes and obesity in a population-based prospective cohort of 3,444 Swedish adults studied sequentially at baseline and 10 years later.
  
  
  METHODS
  Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the predictive ability of genetic and lifestyle risk factors on incident obesity and type 2 diabetes by calculating the AUC.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The predictive accuracy of lifestyle risk factors was similar to that yielded by genetic information for incident type 2 diabetes (AUC 75% and 74%, respectively) and obesity (AUC 68% and 73%, respectively) in models adjusted for age, age(2) and sex. The addition of genetic information to the lifestyle model significantly improved the prediction of type 2 diabetes (AUC 80%; p = 0.0003) and obesity (AUC 79%; p < 0.0001) and resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 58% for type 2 diabetes and 64% for obesity.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These findings illustrate that lifestyle and genetic information separately provide a similarly high degree of long-range predictive accuracy for obesity and type 2 diabetes.
authors.affiliation: Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Clinical Research Center Building 91, Level 10, Jan Waldenströms gata 35, SE-20502, Malmö, Sweden.|Department of Genetics, Physical Anthropology and Animal Physiology, Faculty of Science and Technology, University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU), Bilbao, Spain.
authors.forename: Alaitz
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Poveda
authors.affiliation: Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Clinical Research Center Building 91, Level 10, Jan Waldenströms gata 35, SE-20502, Malmö, Sweden.
authors.forename: Robert W
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Koivula
authors.affiliation: Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Clinical Research Center Building 91, Level 10, Jan Waldenströms gata 35, SE-20502, Malmö, Sweden.
authors.forename: Shafqat
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ahmad
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Wellcome Trust Genome Campus, Hinxton, Cambridge, UK.|NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, Institute of Metabolic Science, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK.|Metabolic Research Laboratories Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge, UK.
authors.forename: Inês
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Barroso
authors.affiliation: Department of Biobank Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
authors.forename: Göran
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Hallmans
authors.affiliation: Department of Odontology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
authors.forename: Ingegerd
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Johansson
authors.affiliation: Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Clinical Research Center Building 91, Level 10, Jan Waldenströms gata 35, SE-20502, Malmö, Sweden.|Department of Biobank Research, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
authors.forename: Frida
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Renström
authors.affiliation: Genetic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Clinical Research Center Building 91, Level 10, Jan Waldenströms gata 35, SE-20502, Malmö, Sweden. paul.franks@med.lu.se.|Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section for Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden. paul.franks@med.lu.se.|Department of Nutrition, Harvard Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. paul.franks@med.lu.se.
authors.forename: Paul W
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Franks
mesh_terms: D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood* / Q000209:etiology* / Q000378:metabolism; D015444:Exercise / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D008019:Life Style; D016015:Logistic Models; D009765:Obesity / Q000097:blood* / Q000209:etiology* / Q000378:metabolism; D011446:Prospective Studies
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose
keywords: Environment; Genes; Obesity; Predictors; Type 2 diabetes