title: Expert Elicitation of Population-Level Effects of Disturbance.
abstract: Expert elicitation is a rigorous method for synthesizing expert knowledge to inform decision making and is reliable and practical when field data are limited. We evaluated the feasibility of applying expert elicitation to estimate population-level effects of disturbance on marine mammals. Diverse experts estimated parameters related to mortality and sublethal injury of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). We are now eliciting expert knowledge on the movement of right whales among geographic regions to parameterize a spatial model of health. Expert elicitation complements methods such as simulation models or extrapolations from other species, sometimes with greater accuracy and less uncertainty.
authors.affiliation: John Muir Institute of the Environment, The Barn, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, 95616, USA. efleishman@ucdavis.edu.
authors.forename: Erica
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Fleishman
authors.affiliation: School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, 3010, Australia. markab@unimelb.edu.au.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Burgman
authors.affiliation: Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, US Geological Survey, Laurel, MD, 20708, USA. mrunge@usgs.gov.
authors.forename: Michael C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Runge
authors.affiliation: Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9LZ, UK. rss5@st-andrews.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Robert S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Schick
authors.affiliation: John H. Prescott Marine Laboratory, New England Aquarium, Boston, MA, 02110, USA. skraus@neaq.org.
authors.forename: Scott
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kraus
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014907:Whales / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: Conceptual models; Decision-making; Health; North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis); Parameterization