title: Migraine incidence in 5 years: a population-based prospective longitudinal study in Turkey.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The incidence of migraine has been investigated only in a few studies worldwide and it is not known in our country. We, therefore, aimed to estimate the migraine incidence in a previously accomplished population-based prevalence study sample of 5323 individuals in the year 2008.
  
  
  METHODS
  The former Turkish headache prevalence study has been completed as a nationwide, randomized, home-based study of face-to-face examination by physicians trained for headache diagnosis by using ICHD criteria. Five years after this study an optimized survey including 50 questions was performed to estimate the migraine incidence in migraine-free individuals in the previous study, with a 56.4 % responder rate. Two validation studies for this survey were performed prior and after the study each in 100 subjects by comparing the gold standard of expert diagnosis of headache, showing high rate of reliability (Crohnbach alpha: 0.911 and 0.706, respectively).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Migraine incidence was estimated as 2.38 % (2.98 % in women and 1.93 % in men) per year in 2563 migraine-free individuals; if the population at risk is defined as the group without any headaches, the migraine incidence decreased to 1.99 %. The chronic migraine (CM) incidence [without medication overuse (MOH)] was 0.066 % and that of MOH was 0.259 %. We found a significant burden of the disease on the occupational functionality as well as on social and family life, even in the early years of the migraine. The family history of headaches especially in the fathers could be useful to predict new cases of migraine, besides the well-known risk factor, diagnosis of depression, whereas income and education did not seem to relate to migraine onset.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our study with a large population-based nation-wide sample, using ICHD-II criteria, with structured headache interviews as well as blinded re-validation of the questionnaire diagnoses showed a 2.38 % incidence rate of migraine in Turkey, higher than most of the other previous reports; a finding which could be related to genetic factors and also to the methodological differences in the study designs. Moreover the incidence of CM was found to be 0.066 %.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University, Millet Cad, 34390, Capa/Istanbul, Turkey. betulbaykanbaykal@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Betul
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Baykan
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University, Millet Cad, 34390, Capa/Istanbul, Turkey. drmustafaertas@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Mustafa
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ertas
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, School of Medicine, University of Uludag, Bursa, Turkey. nkarli@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Necdet
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Karlı
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Cerrahpasa School of Medicine, Istanbul University, Millet Cad, 34390, Capa/Istanbul, Turkey. deryaulu@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Derya
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Uluduz
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Cerrahpasa School of Medicine, Istanbul University, Millet Cad, 34390, Capa/Istanbul, Turkey. uuygun1903@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Ugur
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Uygunoglu
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University, Millet Cad, 34390, Capa/Istanbul, Turkey. esmeekizoglu@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Esme
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Ekizoglu
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Istanbul Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University, Millet Cad, 34390, Capa/Istanbul, Turkey. elifkorhan@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Elif
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kocasoy Orhan
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Cerrahpasa School of Medicine, Istanbul University, Millet Cad, 34390, Capa/Istanbul, Turkey. ssaip@istanbul.edu.tr.
authors.forename: Sabahattin
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Saip
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, School of Medicine, University of Uludag, Bursa, Turkey. mzarifoglu@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Mehmet
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zarifoglu
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Cerrahpasa School of Medicine, Istanbul University, Millet Cad, 34390, Capa/Istanbul, Turkey. akselsiva@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Aksel
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Siva
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008881:Migraine Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods; D011446:Prospective Studies; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012307:Risk Factors; D016037:Single-Blind Method; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires / Q000592:standards; D014421:Turkey / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Headache epidemiology; Incidence; Migraine