title: Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios in China.
abstract: This study investigates how energy structure and energy security in China will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways in a computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China needs to shift its energy structure from fossil fuel dominance to renewables and nuclear. The lower the allowable emissions, the larger the shifts required. Among fossil fuels, coal use particularly must significantly decrease. Such structural shifts will improve energy self-sufficiency, thus enhancing energy security. Under the policy scenarios, energy-source diversity as measured by the Herfindahl Index improves until 2050, after which diversity declines because of high dependence on a specific energy source (nuclear and biomass). Overall, however, it is revealed that energy security improves along with progress in climate mitigation. These improvements will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement risks.
authors.affiliation: School of Environmental Science, The University of Shiga Prefecture, Hikone, Shiga, Japan.
authors.forename: Ken'ichi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Matsumoto
mesh_terms: D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis / Q000517:prevention & control; D000465:Algorithms; D002681:China; D057231:Climate Change; D003031:Coal; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D004736:Energy-Generating Resources / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005544:Forecasting; D005579:Fossil Fuels; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical
chemical_list: D003031:Coal; D005579:Fossil Fuels