title: Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases.
abstract: Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.
authors.affiliation: University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK. deirdre.hollingsworth@warwick.ac.uk.
authors.forename: T Déirdre
authors.initials: TD
authors.lastname: Hollingsworth
authors.affiliation: Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, L3 5QA, UK.
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authors.initials: ER
authors.lastname: Adams
authors.affiliation: Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.
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authors.affiliation: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
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authors.affiliation: Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.
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authors.affiliation: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, USA.
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authors.affiliation: Erasmus University Medical Center, 3015 CE, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
authors.forename: David J
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authors.lastname: Blok
authors.affiliation: University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
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authors.affiliation: Erasmus University Medical Center, 3015 CE, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Luc
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authors.lastname: Coffeng
authors.affiliation: University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
authors.forename: Orin
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authors.lastname: Courtenay
authors.affiliation: University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
authors.forename: Ron E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Crump
authors.affiliation: Erasmus University Medical Center, 3015 CE, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
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authors.lastname: de Vlas
authors.affiliation: Princeton University, New Jersey, NJ, 08544, USA.
authors.forename: Andy
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Dobson
authors.affiliation: University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
authors.forename: Louise
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Dyson
authors.affiliation: University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
authors.forename: Hajnal
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authors.lastname: Farkas
authors.affiliation: Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06520, USA.
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authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Galvani
authors.affiliation: Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3800, Australia.
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authors.lastname: Gambhir
authors.affiliation: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, 44106, USA.
authors.forename: David
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authors.lastname: Gurarie
authors.affiliation: University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
authors.forename: Michael A
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authors.lastname: Irvine
authors.affiliation: University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
authors.forename: Sarah
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authors.lastname: Jervis
authors.affiliation: University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
authors.forename: Matt J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Keeling
authors.affiliation: Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, L3 5QA, UK.
authors.forename: Louise
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authors.lastname: Kelly-Hope
authors.affiliation: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, 44106, USA.
authors.forename: Charles
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authors.lastname: King
authors.affiliation: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
authors.forename: Bruce Y
authors.initials: BY
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Erasmus University Medical Center, 3015 CE, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Epke A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Le Rutte
authors.affiliation: University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, 94143, USA.
authors.forename: Thomas M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Lietman
authors.affiliation: Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06520, USA.
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authors.lastname: Ndeffo-Mbah
authors.affiliation: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
authors.forename: Graham F
authors.initials: GF
authors.lastname: Medley
authors.affiliation: University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN, 47556, USA.
authors.forename: Edwin
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Michael
authors.affiliation: Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06520, USA.
authors.forename: Abhishek
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authors.lastname: Pandey
authors.affiliation: Princeton University, New Jersey, NJ, 08544, USA.
authors.forename: Jennifer K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Peterson
authors.affiliation: Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3800, Australia.
authors.forename: Amy
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authors.lastname: Pinsent
authors.affiliation: University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, 94143, USA.
authors.forename: Travis C
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Porco
authors.affiliation: Erasmus University Medical Center, 3015 CE, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jan Hendrik
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Richardus
authors.affiliation: Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, L3 5QA, UK.
authors.forename: Lisa
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authors.lastname: Reimer
authors.affiliation: University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.
authors.forename: Kat S
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Rock
authors.affiliation: University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN, 47556, USA.
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authors.initials: BK
authors.lastname: Singh
authors.affiliation: Erasmus University Medical Center, 3015 CE, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
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authors.lastname: Stolk
authors.affiliation: Vector Control Research Centre, Pondicherry, 605006, India.
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authors.lastname: Swaminathan
authors.affiliation: Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, L3 5QA, UK.
authors.forename: Steve J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Torr
authors.affiliation: Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06520, USA.
authors.forename: Jeffrey
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authors.lastname: Townsend
authors.affiliation: Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.
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authors.lastname: Truscott
authors.affiliation: Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, UK.
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authors.affiliation: Children's Investment Fund Foundation, London, W1S 2FT, UK.
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mesh_terms: D056808:Biostatistics; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods*; D060740:Disease Eradication; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000517:prevention & control*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D058069:Neglected Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*