title: Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic.
abstract: As of November 2015, the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that began in West Africa in late 2013 is waning. The human toll includes more than 28,000 EVD cases and 11,000 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the most heavily-affected countries. We reviewed 66 mathematical modeling studies of the EVD epidemic published in the peer-reviewed literature to assess the key uncertainties models addressed, data used for modeling, public sharing of data and results, and model performance. Based on the review, we suggest steps to improve the use of modeling in future public health emergencies.
authors.affiliation: Department of Defense, Division of Integrated Biosurveillance, Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Silver Spring, United States.
authors.forename: Jean-Paul
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Chretien
authors.affiliation: MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Riley
authors.affiliation: Department of Health and Human Services, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Washington, United States.
authors.forename: Dylan B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: George
mesh_terms: D000354:Africa, Western / Q000453:epidemiology; D058872:Epidemics; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical
keywords: ebola; epidemiology; forecasting; global health; human; modeling