title: Predicting microbial water quality with models: Over-arching questions for managing risk in agricultural catchments.
abstract: The application of models to predict concentrations of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) in environmental systems plays an important role for guiding decision-making associated with the management of microbial water quality. In recent years there has been an increasing demand by policy-makers for models to help inform FIO dynamics in order to prioritise efforts for environmental and human-health protection. However, given the limited evidence-base on which FIO models are built relative to other agricultural pollutants (e.g. nutrients) it is imperative that the end-user expectations of FIO models are appropriately managed. In response, this commentary highlights four over-arching questions associated with: (i) model purpose; (ii) modelling approach; (iii) data availability; and (iv) model application, that must be considered as part of good practice prior to the deployment of any modelling approach to predict FIO behaviour in catchment systems. A series of short and longer-term research priorities are proposed in response to these questions in order to promote better model deployment in the field of catchment microbial dynamics.
authors.affiliation: Biological & Environmental Sciences, School of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK. Electronic address: david.oliver@stir.ac.uk.
authors.forename: David M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Oliver
authors.affiliation: Biological & Environmental Sciences, School of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK.
authors.forename: Kenneth D H
authors.initials: KD
authors.lastname: Porter
authors.affiliation: USDA ARS, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, MD 20705, USA.
authors.forename: Yakov A
authors.initials: YA
authors.lastname: Pachepsky
authors.affiliation: AgResearch Ltd, Land & Environment, Invermay Research Centre, Private Bag 50034, Mosgiel 9053, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Richard W
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Muirhead
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.
authors.forename: Sim M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Reaney
authors.affiliation: School of Biosystems Engineering, Agriculture and Food Science Centre, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin, Ireland.
authors.forename: Rory
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Coffey
authors.affiliation: Centre for Research into Environment & Health, Aberystwyth University, Wales SY23 3DB, UK.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kay
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.
authors.forename: David G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Milledge
authors.affiliation: USDA ARS, Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, MD 20705, USA.
authors.forename: Eunmi
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Hong
authors.affiliation: ADAS Group Ltd, HQ Pendeford House, Pendeford Business Park, Wolverhampton WV9 5AP, UK.
authors.forename: Steven G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Anthony
authors.affiliation: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK.
authors.forename: Trevor
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Page
authors.affiliation: Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, UK.
authors.forename: Jack W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Bloodworth
authors.affiliation: TEAGASC, Agricultural Catchments Programme, Johnstown Castle, Wexford, Ireland.
authors.forename: Per-Erik
authors.initials: PE
authors.lastname: Mellander
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.
authors.forename: Patrice E
authors.initials: PE
authors.lastname: Carbonneau
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, UK.
authors.forename: Scott J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: McGrane
authors.affiliation: Biological & Environmental Sciences, School of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK.
authors.forename: Richard S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Quilliam
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012308:Risk Management; D014871:Water Microbiology; D014876:Water Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D060753:Water Quality / Q000592:standards*
keywords: Catchment management; Diffuse pollution; Faecal indicator organism; Human health; Pathogens