title: ICU physicians are unable to accurately predict length of stay at admission: a prospective study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the accuracy of prediction of intensive care unit length of stay made by physicians at patient admission.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Three medical-surgical intensive care units in an oncology hospital.
  
  
  METHODS
  All patients admitted between January and December 2014.
  
  
  METHODS
  None.
  
  
  METHODS
  Intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay was estimated by the physicians responsible for patient admission and categorized as <48 h, 2-5 days or more than 5 days. Agreement between predicted and actual intensive care unit length of stay was calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 2955 patients were admitted during the study period. Physicians accurately predicted ICU length of stay in 1557 (52.7%) admissions. ICU length of stay was underestimated in 864 (29.2%) and overestimated in 534 (18.1%) cases. Agreement between predicted and actual intensive care unit length of stay was poor (Kappa = 0.22) and not associated with physician characteristics. Predictions of an intensive care unit length of stay of >5 days were significantly less accurate than those of <48 h and of 2-5 days (31.1, 59.8 and 53.1%, respectively, P < 0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The intensive care unit length of stay prediction in these oncological intensive care units is inaccurate and, ideally, should not be made at admission.
authors.affiliation: Intensive Care Unit, AC Camargo Cancer Center, São Paulo-SP, Brazil Discipline of Medical Emergencies, Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
authors.forename: Antonio Paulo
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Nassar
authors.affiliation: Intensive Care Unit, AC Camargo Cancer Center, São Paulo-SP, Brazil Pulmonary Division- Heart Institute (InCor), Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
authors.forename: Pedro
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Caruso
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001938:Brazil; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007362:Intensive Care Units; D007902:Length of Stay / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010820:Physicians; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: critical care; forecasting; intensive care; length of stay; management; quality of health care