title: The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming.
abstract: Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms.
authors.affiliation: water@leeds, School of Geography, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Graeme T
authors.initials: GT
authors.lastname: Swindles
authors.affiliation: water@leeds, School of Geography, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Paul J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Morris
authors.affiliation: School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology, Queen's University Belfast, BT7 1NN, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Donal
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Mullan
authors.affiliation: water@leeds, School of Geography, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Elizabeth J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Watson
authors.affiliation: water@leeds, School of Geography, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: T Edward
authors.initials: TE
authors.lastname: Turner
authors.affiliation: Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, EX4 4RJ, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Thomas P
authors.initials: TP
authors.lastname: Roland
authors.affiliation: Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, EX4 4RJ, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Matthew J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Amesbury
authors.affiliation: Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), University of Copenhagen, DK-1350, Denmark.
authors.forename: Ulla
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Kokfelt
authors.affiliation: Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Kristian
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Schoning
authors.affiliation: Département de Géographie and GEOTOP, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
authors.forename: Steve
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Pratte
authors.affiliation: Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, EX4 4RJ, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Angela
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gallego-Sala
authors.affiliation: Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, EX4 4RJ, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Dan J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Charman
authors.affiliation: Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, EX4 4RJ, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Nicole
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Sanderson
authors.affiliation: Département de Géographie and GEOTOP, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
authors.forename: Michelle
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Garneau
authors.affiliation: water@leeds, School of Geography, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Jonathan L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Carrivick
authors.affiliation: water@leeds, School of Geography, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Clare
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Woulds
authors.affiliation: water@leeds, School of Geography, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Joseph
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Holden
authors.affiliation: School of Interdisciplinary Studies, Dumfries Campus, University of Glasgow, Rutherford/McCowan Building, Crichton, Dumfries, DG1 4ZL, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Lauren
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Parry
authors.affiliation: Natural Resources Canada/Ressources naturelles Canada, Geological Survey of Canada/Commission géologique du Canada, Calgary, Alberta, T2L 2A7, Canada.
authors.forename: Jennifer M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Galloway