title: A Mathematical Model of Intra-Colony Spread of American Foulbrood in European Honeybees (Apis mellifera L.).
abstract: American foulbrood (AFB) is one of the severe infectious diseases of European honeybees (Apis mellifera L.) and other Apis species. This disease is caused by a gram-positive, spore-forming bacterium Paenibacillus larvae. In this paper, a compartmental (SI framework) model is constructed to represent the spread of AFB within a colony. The model is analyzed to determine the long-term fate of the colony once exposed to AFB spores. It was found out that without effective and efficient treatment, AFB infection eventually leads to colony collapse. Furthermore, infection thresholds were predicted based on the stability of the equilibrium states. The number of infected cell combs is one of the factors that drive disease spread. Our results can be used to forecast the transmission timeline of AFB infection and to evaluate the control strategies for minimizing a possible epidemic.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.|UPLB Bee Program, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.
authors.forename: Eduardo O
authors.initials: EO
authors.lastname: Jatulan
authors.affiliation: Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.|UPLB Bee Program, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.
authors.forename: Jomar F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Rabajante
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.|UPLB Bee Program, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.
authors.forename: Charina Gracia B
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Banaay
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.|UPLB Bee Program, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.
authors.forename: Alejandro C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Fajardo
authors.affiliation: Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.|UPLB Bee Program, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.
authors.forename: Editha C
authors.initials: EC
authors.lastname: Jose
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000820:Animal Diseases / Q000382:microbiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D000818:Animals; D001516:Bees / Q000382:microbiology*; D016908:Gram-Positive Bacterial Infections; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D056507:Paenibacillus