title: Agriculture, population growth, and statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record.
abstract: The human population has grown significantly since the onset of the Holocene about 12,000 y ago. Despite decades of research, the factors determining prehistoric population growth remain uncertain. Here, we examine measurements of the rate of growth of the prehistoric human population based on statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record. We find that, during most of the Holocene, human populations worldwide grew at a long-term annual rate of 0.04%. Statistical analysis of the radiocarbon record shows that transitioning farming societies experienced the same rate of growth as contemporaneous foraging societies. The same rate of growth measured for populations dwelling in a range of environments and practicing a variety of subsistence strategies suggests that the global climate and/or endogenous biological factors, not adaptability to local environment or subsistence practices, regulated the long-term growth of the human population during most of the Holocene. Our results demonstrate that statistical analyses of large ensembles of radiocarbon dates are robust and valuable for quantitatively investigating the demography of prehistoric human populations worldwide.
authors.affiliation: Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138; zahid@cfa.harvard.edu erick.robinson@uwyo.edu.
authors.forename: H Jabran
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Zahid
authors.affiliation: Department of Anthropology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 zahid@cfa.harvard.edu erick.robinson@uwyo.edu.
authors.forename: Erick
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Robinson
authors.affiliation: Department of Anthropology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071.
authors.forename: Robert L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Kelly
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D001106:Archaeology; D006801:Humans; D011158:Population Growth; D055110:Radiometric Dating
keywords: agriculture; archeology; hunter-gatherers; paleodemography; radiocarbon dating