title: Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea.
abstract: The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public's attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number R0 reaches up to 4.422. The numerical analysis shows that the reasons of the outbreak spread quickly are lack of self-protection sense and targeted control measures. Through partial correction analysis, the parameters β1 and γ have strong correlations with R0, i.e., the infectivity and proportion of the asymptomatic infected cases have much influence on the spread of disease. By sensitivity analysis, strengthening self-protection ability of susceptible and quickly isolating or monitoring close contacts are effective measures to control the disease.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, PR China.|Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China.
authors.forename: Zhi-Qiang
authors.initials: ZQ
authors.lastname: Xia
authors.affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China.
authors.forename: Juan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, PR China.
authors.forename: Ya-Kui
authors.initials: YK
authors.lastname: Xue
authors.affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China.
authors.forename: Gui-Quan
authors.initials: GQ
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China.
authors.forename: Zhen
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Jin
mesh_terms: D018352:Coronavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D065207:Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus; D008954:Models, Biological; D056910:Republic of Korea / Q000453:epidemiology