title: Estimating the probability distribution of the incubation period for rabies using data from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo.
abstract: Data of 98 rabies cases in dogs and cats from the 1948-1954 rabies epidemic in Tokyo were used to estimate the probability distribution of the incubation period. Lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions were used to model the incubation period. The maximum likelihood estimates of the mean incubation period ranged from 27.30 to 28.56 days according to different distributions. The mean incubation period was shortest with the lognormal distribution (27.30 days), and longest with the Weibull distribution (28.56 days). The best distribution in terms of AIC value was the lognormal distribution with mean value of 27.30 (95% CI: 23.46-31.55) days and standard deviation of 20.20 (15.27-26.31) days. There were no significant differences between the incubation periods for dogs and cats, or between those for male and female dogs.
authors.affiliation: Ikiiki Chikusan Chiba Support Center, 324-4 Fukutawara, Togane-shi, Chiba Prefecture 283-0812, Japan.
authors.forename: Kageaki
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Tojinbara
authors.affiliation: School of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Kagoshima University, 8-35-1 Sakuragaoka, Kagoshima-shi, Kagoshima Prefecture 890-8544, Japan.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sugiura
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Yamada
authors.affiliation: Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan.
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Kakitani
authors.affiliation: Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan.
authors.forename: N C L
authors.initials: NCL
authors.lastname: Kwan
authors.affiliation: Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan. Electronic address: aksugiur@mail.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sugiura
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002371:Cat Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000266:history* / Q000821:virology; D002415:Cats; D004283:Dog Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000266:history* / Q000821:virology; D004285:Dogs; D058872:Epidemics / Q000266:history / Q000662:veterinary*; D005260:Female; D049673:History, 20th Century; D055256:Infectious Disease Incubation Period; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008297:Male; D011818:Rabies / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000266:history / Q000662:veterinary* / Q000821:virology; D014041:Tokyo / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Bootstrap; Incubation period; Japan; Maximum likelihood estimates; Rabies