title: Can the Excess Heat Factor Indicate Heatwave-Related Morbidity? A Case Study in Adelaide, South Australia.
abstract: Although heatwave-related excess mortality and morbidity have been widely studied, results are not comparable spatially and often longitudinally because of different heatwave definitions applied. The excess heat factor (EHF) quantifies heatwave intensity relative to the local climate, enabling cross-regional comparisons. Previous studies have shown a strong relationship between EHFs and daily mortality during severe heatwaves. An extensive study about the relationship between EHFs and daily morbidity compared to the currently applied heatwave thresholds in Adelaide has not yet been undertaken. This paper analyzes the association of EHFs with daily morbidity between 2008 and 2014 in the Adelaide metropolitan region, South Australia, and probes three different approaches to calculate the EHF. The EHF is found to differentiate days with heatwave-related excess morbidity significantly better than other widely used weather parameters, resulting in fewer days per year with heatwave alerts than using previously proposed methods. The volume of excess morbidity can be predicted by the EHF more reliably with a model proposed for the SA Ambulance Service to support their heatwave preparation plan.
authors.affiliation: School of Information Technology and Mathematical Sciences, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA, 5095, Australia. gertrud.hatvani-kovacs@mymail.unisa.edu.au.
authors.forename: Gertrud
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Hatvani-Kovacs
authors.affiliation: Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA, Australia.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Belusko
authors.affiliation: Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA, Australia.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pockett
authors.affiliation: Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA, Australia.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Boland
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D018882:Heat Stress Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D012307:Risk Factors; D013021:South Australia / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Australia; Excess heat factor; Heatwave resilience; Heatwave-related morbidity