title: An aftermath analysis of the 2014 coal mine accident in Soma, Turkey: Use of risk performance indicators based on historical experience.
abstract: On the 13th of May 2014 a fire related incident in the Soma coal mine in Turkey caused 301 fatalities and more than 80 injuries. This has been the largest coal mine accident in Turkey, and in the OECD country group, so far. This study investigated if such a disastrous event should be expected, in a statistical sense, based on historical observations. For this purpose, PSI's ENSAD database is used to extract accident data for the period 1970-2014. Four different cases are analyzed, i.e., OECD, OECD w/o Turkey, Turkey and USA. Analysis of temporal trends for annual numbers of accidents and fatalities indicated a non-significant decreasing tendency for OECD and OECD w/o Turkey and a significant one for USA, whereas for Turkey both measures showed an increase over time. The expectation analysis revealed clearly that an event with the consequences of the Soma accident is rather unlikely for OECD, OECD w/o Turkey and USA. In contrast, such a severe accident has a substantially higher expectation for Turkey, i.e. it cannot be considered an extremely rare event, based on historical experience. This indicates a need for improved safety measures and stricter regulations in the Turkish coal mining sector in order to get closer to the rest of OECD.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory for Energy System Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institut, CH-5232 Villigen PSI, Switzerland. Electronic address: matteo.spada@psi.ch.
authors.forename: Matteo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Spada
authors.affiliation: Laboratory for Energy System Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institut, CH-5232 Villigen PSI, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Burgherr
mesh_terms: D000062:Accidents, Occupational / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D015984:Causality; D003032:Coal Mining / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D003431:Cross-Cultural Comparison; D005390:Fires / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016272:Occupational Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D060051:Occupational Injuries / Q000401:mortality*; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D014421:Turkey; D014481:United States
keywords: Bayesian analysis; Coal mine accident; Risk assessment