title: Effect of Gun Carrying on Perceptions of Risk Among Adolescent Offenders.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We observed how perceptions of risks, costs, crime rewards, and violence exposure change as individual gun-carrying behavior changes among high-risk adolescents.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analyzed a longitudinal study (2000-2010) of serious juvenile offenders in Maricopa County, Arizona, or Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, assessing within-person changes in risk and reward perceptions, and violence exposure as individuals initiated or ceased gun carrying.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Despite being associated with heightened exposure to violence, gun carrying was linked to lower perceptions of risks and costs and higher perceived rewards of offending. Gun carrying was not time-stable, as certain individuals both started and stopped carrying during the study. Within-person changes in carrying guns were associated with shifting perceptions of risks, costs, and rewards of crime, and changes in exposure to violence in expected directions.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Gun carrying reduces perceptions of risks associated with offending while increasing actual risk of violence exposure. This suggests that there is an important disconnect between perceptions and objective levels of safety among high-risk youths. Gun-carrying decisions may not only be influenced by factors of protection and self-defense, but also by perceptions of risks and reward associated with engaging in crime more generally.
authors.affiliation: Thomas A. Loughran and Megan Eileen Collins are with Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland, College Park. Joan A. Reid is with Criminology Program, University of South Florida, St Petersburg. Edward P. Mulvey is with Western Psychiatric Institute and Clinic, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA.
authors.forename: Thomas A
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Loughran
authors.affiliation: Thomas A. Loughran and Megan Eileen Collins are with Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland, College Park. Joan A. Reid is with Criminology Program, University of South Florida, St Petersburg. Edward P. Mulvey is with Western Psychiatric Institute and Clinic, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA.
authors.forename: Joan A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Reid
authors.affiliation: Thomas A. Loughran and Megan Eileen Collins are with Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland, College Park. Joan A. Reid is with Criminology Program, University of South Florida, St Petersburg. Edward P. Mulvey is with Western Psychiatric Institute and Clinic, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA.
authors.forename: Megan Eileen
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Collins
authors.affiliation: Thomas A. Loughran and Megan Eileen Collins are with Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland, College Park. Joan A. Reid is with Criminology Program, University of South Florida, St Petersburg. Edward P. Mulvey is with Western Psychiatric Institute and Clinic, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA.
authors.forename: Edward P
authors.initials: EP
authors.lastname: Mulvey
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000294:Adolescent Behavior / Q000208:ethnology / Q000523:psychology; D001741:Black or African American; D001130:Arizona; D005389:Firearms; D006630:Hispanic or Latino; D006801:Humans; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D010414:Pennsylvania; D012306:Risk; D014754:Violence / Q000517:prevention & control