title: Hispanic-White Differences in Lifespan Variability in the United States.
abstract: This study is the first to investigate whether and, if so, why Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites in the United States differ in the variability of their lifespans. Although Hispanics enjoy higher life expectancy than whites, very little is known about how lifespan variability-and thus uncertainty about length of life-differs by race/ethnicity. We use 2010 U.S. National Vital Statistics System data to calculate lifespan variance at ages 10+ for Hispanics and whites, and then decompose the Hispanic-white variance difference into cause-specific spread, allocation, and timing effects. In addition to their higher life expectancy relative to whites, Hispanics also exhibit 7 % lower lifespan variability, with a larger gap among women than men. Differences in cause-specific incidence (allocation effects) explain nearly two-thirds of Hispanics' lower lifespan variability, mainly because of the higher mortality from suicide, accidental poisoning, and lung cancer among whites. Most of the remaining Hispanic-white variance difference is due to greater age dispersion (spread effects) in mortality from heart disease and residual causes among whites than Hispanics. Thus, the Hispanic paradox-that a socioeconomically disadvantaged population (Hispanics) enjoys a mortality advantage over a socioeconomically advantaged population (whites)-pertains to lifespan variability as well as to life expectancy. Efforts to reduce U.S. lifespan variability and simultaneously increase life expectancy, especially for whites, should target premature, young adult causes of death-in particular, suicide, accidental poisoning, and homicide. We conclude by discussing how the analysis of Hispanic-white differences in lifespan variability contributes to our understanding of the Hispanic paradox.
authors.affiliation: Department of Sociology, University of Memphis, 223 Clement Hall, Memphis, TN, 38152, USA. joseph.lariscy@memphis.edu.
authors.forename: Joseph T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Lariscy
authors.affiliation: The Johns Hopkins Global Obesity Prevention Center, Bloomberg School of Public Health, W3508, 615 Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
authors.forename: Claudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Nau
authors.affiliation: Population Research Institute and Department of Sociology and Criminology, The Pennsylvania State University, 902 Oswald Tower, University Park, PA, 16802, USA.
authors.forename: Glenn
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Firebaugh
authors.affiliation: Carolina Population Center and Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 206 West Franklin Street, Room 211, Chapel Hill, NC, 27516, USA.
authors.forename: Robert A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Hummer
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D002648:Child; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D006630:Hispanic or Latino; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000208:ethnology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D013405:Suicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014481:United States; D044465:White People; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Adult mortality; Cause of death; Hispanic paradox; Lifespan variability; Race/ethnicity