title: Assessment of accident severity in the construction industry using the Bayesian theorem.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Construction is a major source of employment in many countries. In construction, workers perform a great diversity of activities, each one with a specific associated risk. The aim of this paper is to identify workers who are at risk of accidents with severe consequences and classify these workers to determine appropriate control measures.
  
  
  METHODS
  We defined 48 groups of workers and used the Bayesian theorem to estimate posterior probabilities about the severity of accidents at the level of individuals in construction sector. First, the posterior probabilities of injuries based on four variables were provided. Then the probabilities of injury for 48 groups of workers were determined.
  
  
  RESULTS
  With regard to marginal frequency of injury, slight injury (0.856), fatal injury (0.086) and severe injury (0.058) had the highest probability of occurrence. It was observed that workers with <1 year's work experience (0.168) had the highest probability of injury occurrence. The first group of workers, who were extensively exposed to risk of severe and fatal accidents, involved workers ≥ 50 years old, married, with 1-5 years' work experience, who had no past accident experience.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The findings provide a direction for more effective safety strategies and occupational accident prevention and emergency programmes.
authors.affiliation: a Tabriz University of Medical Sciences , Iran.
authors.forename: Seyed Shamseddin
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Alizadeh
authors.affiliation: b Tarbiat Modares University , Iran.
authors.forename: Seyed Bagher
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Mortazavi
authors.affiliation: b Tarbiat Modares University , Iran.
authors.forename: Mohammad
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mehdi Sepehri
mesh_terms: D000062:Accidents, Occupational / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000328:Adult; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D060389:Construction Industry; D006801:Humans; D015601:Injury Severity Score; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: Bayesian; accident consequence; construction sector; posterior probabilities