title: Development and evaluation of a regression-based model to predict cesium-137 concentration ratios for saltwater fish.
abstract: Data from published studies and World Wide Web sources were combined to develop a regression model to predict (137)Cs concentration ratios for saltwater fish. Predictions were developed from 1) numeric trophic levels computed primarily from random resampling of known food items and 2) K concentrations in the saltwater for 65 samplings from 41 different species from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. A number of different models were initially developed and evaluated for accuracy which was assessed as the ratios of independently measured concentration ratios to those predicted by the model. In contrast to freshwater systems, were K concentrations are highly variable and are an important factor in affecting fish concentration ratios, the less variable K concentrations in saltwater were relatively unimportant in affecting concentration ratios. As a result, the simplest model, which used only trophic level as a predictor, had comparable accuracies to more complex models that also included K concentrations. A test of model accuracy involving comparisons of 56 published concentration ratios from 51 species of marine fish to those predicted by the model indicated that 52 of the predicted concentration ratios were within a factor of 2 of the observed concentration ratios.
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiological and Environmental Health Sciences, Colorado State University, 305 W. Magnolia, PMB 231, Fort Collins, CO 80521, USA. Electronic address: jepinder@uga.edu.
authors.forename: John E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Pinder
authors.affiliation: Canadian Nuclear Laboratories, Chalk River Laboratories, Chalk River, Ontario K0J 1J0, Canada. Electronic address: djrowan@bell.net.
authors.forename: David J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Rowan
authors.affiliation: School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth P01 3 QL, United Kingdom. Electronic address: jim.smith@portac.uk.
authors.forename: Jim T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Smith
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001267:Atlantic Ocean; D002588:Cesium Radioisotopes / Q000378:metabolism*; D005399:Fishes / Q000378:metabolism*; D020387:Food Chain; D008954:Models, Biological; D010140:Pacific Ocean; D011188:Potassium / Q000032:analysis; D000069079:Radiation Exposure; D011834:Radiation Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012623:Seawater / Q000737:chemistry; D014875:Water Pollutants, Radioactive / Q000378:metabolism*
chemical_list: D002588:Cesium Radioisotopes; D014875:Water Pollutants, Radioactive; D011188:Potassium
keywords: Cs concentration ratios; K concentrations; Predictive model; Regression; Saltwater fish; Trophic levels