title: [Effects of future climate change on climatic suitability of rubber plantation in China].
abstract: Global warming may seriously affect the climatic suitability distribution of rubber plantation in China. Five main climate factors affecting rubber planting were mean temperature of the coldest month, mean extremely minimum temperature, the number of monthly, mean temperature ≥18 °C, annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation. Climatic suitability areas of rubber plantation in 1981-2010, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 were analyzed by the maximum entropy model based on the five main climate factors and the climate data of 1981-2010 and RCP4.5 scenario data. The results showed that under the background of the future climate change, the climatic suitability area of rubber plantation would have a trend of expansion to the north in 2041-2060, 2061-2080. The climatic suitability areas of rubber plantation in 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 increased more obviously than in 1981-2010. The suitable area and optimum area would increase, while the less suitable area would decrease. The climatic suitability might change in some areas, such as the total suitable area would decrease in Yunnan Province, and the suitability grade in both Jinghong and Mengna would change from optimum area to suitable area. However, the optimum area of rubber plantation would increase significantly in Hainan Island and Leizhou Peninsula of Guangdong Province, and a new less suitable area of rubber planting would appear in Taiwan Island due to the climate change.
authors.forename: Shao-jun
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Guang-sheng
authors.initials: GS
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.forename: Shi-bo
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.forename: Jing-hong
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002681:China; D057232:Global Warming; D028482:Hevea / Q000502:physiology*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012408:Rubber; D013624:Taiwan; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D012408:Rubber