title: Projected habitat loss for Atlantic herring in the Baltic Sea.
abstract: Projected, climate-driven changes in rainfall patterns are expected to alter the salinity (S) of estuaries and larger brackish water bodies, such as the Baltic Sea. Some marine fish larvae are potentially more sensitive to low salinity than older stages, hence we compared the low salinity tolerance of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) larvae at the individual and population levels including four populations in the North and Baltic Seas. Acute low salinity tolerance was similar (S = 1.9-2.7) across populations and increased with increasing body size. Based on this physiological threshold and a regionally down-scaled climate model, spawning habitats in the northern and eastern Baltic Sea are projected to be largely unsuitable for herring by 2100. Although adaptive mechanisms may attenuate the effect in some species, the limited physiological tolerance of fish larvae will remain an important bottleneck for the persistence of marine fish populations in brackish waters undergoing climate-driven freshening.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, Hamburg, D-22767, Germany. Electronic address: Bjoern.Illing@uni-hamburg.de.
authors.forename: Björn
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Illing
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, Hamburg, D-22767, Germany.
authors.forename: Marta
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Moyano
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, Hamburg, D-22767, Germany.
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hufnagl
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, Hamburg, D-22767, Germany.
authors.forename: Myron A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Peck
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001454:Baltic States; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005399:Fishes / Q000502:physiology*; D009792:Oceans and Seas
keywords: Adaptation; Atlantic herring; Baltic Sea; Climate change; Clupea harengus; Salinity