title: Prediction of survival and tumor recurrence in patients undergoing surgery for pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  This study strives to define prognostic models for outcome after surgery for malignant pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors.
  
  
  METHODS
  Forty-one patients were included. Prognostic models for mortality and disease recurrence were developed with multivariate binary logistic regression.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The proposed prognostic model for tumor recurrence risk after surgery in percentage (AUROC = 0.774, 95%CI = 0.611-0.937) is: Risk in % = Exp(Y)/(1 + Exp(Y)), with Y = -4.360 + (0.015 × tumor diameter in cm) + (0.010 × preoperative platelet count in thousand/μl) + (1.077 × distant metastases, if yes = 1; if no = 0) + (-0.026 × Ki-67-positive cells in %) + (-1.086 × upper abdominal pain, if yes = 1; if no = 0). The proposed prognostic model for observed 3-year survival probability after surgery in % (AUROC = 0.932, 95%CI = 0.857-0.999) is: Survival probability in % = Exp(Y)/(1 + Exp(Y)), with Y = -12.492 + (0.054 × preoperative platelet count in thousand/μl) + (0.112 × minimal distance of the resection margin from the tumor in mm) + (-1.574 × number of positive lymph nodes) + (2.292 × histological tumor infiltration, if yes = 1; if no = 0) CONCLUSIONS: The platelet count was identified as a relevant risk factor. Proposed prognostic models with good model-fit display properties that indicate potential clinical usefulness.
authors.affiliation: Department of General, Visceral and Transplant Surgery, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.|Core Facility Quality Management and Health Technology Assessment in Transplantation, Integrated Research and Treatment Center-Transplantation (IFB-Tx), Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.|Department of Trauma and Orthopaedic Surgery, Federal Armed Forces Hospital Westerstede, Westerstede, Germany.
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kaltenborn
authors.affiliation: Core Facility Quality Management and Health Technology Assessment in Transplantation, Integrated Research and Treatment Center-Transplantation (IFB-Tx), Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.|Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Armed Forces Hospital Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Svenja
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Matzke
authors.affiliation: Department of General, Visceral and Transplant Surgery, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.
authors.forename: Moritz
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kleine
authors.affiliation: Institute of Pathology, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.
authors.forename: Till
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Krech
authors.affiliation: Department of General, Visceral and Transplant Surgery, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.
authors.forename: Wolf
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Ramackers
authors.affiliation: Department of General, Visceral and Transplant Surgery, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.
authors.forename: Florian W R
authors.initials: FW
authors.lastname: Vondran
authors.affiliation: Department of General, Visceral and Transplant Surgery, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.
authors.forename: Jürgen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Klempnauer
authors.affiliation: Department of General, Visceral and Transplant Surgery, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.
authors.forename: Hüseyin
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Bektas
authors.affiliation: Department of General, Visceral and Transplant Surgery, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.|Core Facility Quality Management and Health Technology Assessment in Transplantation, Integrated Research and Treatment Center-Transplantation (IFB-Tx), Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.
authors.forename: Harald
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Schrem
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D019540:Area Under Curve; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D019394:Ki-67 Antigen / Q000097:blood*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis*; D018358:Neuroendocrine Tumors / Q000097:blood / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000097:blood / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D010976:Platelet Count; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D019394:Ki-67 Antigen
keywords: metastasis; multivariate analysis; neuroendocrine tumors; pancreas; prognosis; thrombocytes