title: Damages and Expected Deaths Due to Excess NOx Emissions from 2009 to 2015 Volkswagen Diesel Vehicles.
abstract: We estimate the damages and expected deaths in the United States due to excess emissions of NOx from 2009 to 2015 Volkswagen diesel vehicles. Using data on vehicle registrations and a model of pollution transport and valuation, we estimate excess damages of $430 million and 46 excess expected deaths. Accounting for uncertainty about emissions gives a range for damages from $350 million to $500 million, and a range for excess expected deaths from 40 to 52. Our estimates incorporate significant local heterogeneity: for example, Minneapolis has the highest damages despite having fewer noncompliant vehicles than 13 other cities. Our estimated damages greatly exceed possible benefits from reduced CO2 emissions due to increased fuel economy.
authors.affiliation: University of North Carolina at Greensboro , Greensboro, North Carolina 27412, United States.|National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.|Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth , Hanover, New Hampshire 03755, United States.|National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.|Middlebury College, Middlebury, Vermont 05753, United States.|National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.|University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, United States.
authors.forename: Stephen P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Holland
authors.affiliation: University of North Carolina at Greensboro , Greensboro, North Carolina 27412, United States.|National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.|Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth , Hanover, New Hampshire 03755, United States.|National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.|Middlebury College, Middlebury, Vermont 05753, United States.|National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.|University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, United States.
authors.forename: Erin T
authors.initials: ET
authors.lastname: Mansur
authors.affiliation: University of North Carolina at Greensboro , Greensboro, North Carolina 27412, United States.|National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.|Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth , Hanover, New Hampshire 03755, United States.|National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.|Middlebury College, Middlebury, Vermont 05753, United States.|National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.|University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, United States.
authors.forename: Nicholas Z
authors.initials: NZ
authors.lastname: Muller
authors.affiliation: University of North Carolina at Greensboro , Greensboro, North Carolina 27412, United States.|National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.|Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth , Hanover, New Hampshire 03755, United States.|National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.|Middlebury College, Middlebury, Vermont 05753, United States.|National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States.|University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, United States.
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Yates
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*; D001336:Automobiles / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D002947:Cities; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D009589:Nitrogen Oxides / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*; D011634:Public Health; D014481:United States; D001335:Vehicle Emissions / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D009589:Nitrogen Oxides; D001335:Vehicle Emissions