title: Species Distribution Modelling of Aedes aegypti in two dengue-endemic regions of Pakistan.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Statistical tools are effectively used to determine the distribution of mosquitoes and to make ecological inferences about the vector-borne disease dynamics. In this study, we utilised species distribution models to understand spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti in two dengue-prevalent regions of Pakistan, Lahore and Swat. Species distribution models can potentially indicate the probability of suitability of Ae. aegypti once introduced to new regions like Swat, where invasion of this species is a recent phenomenon.
  
  
  METHODS
  The distribution of Ae. aegypti was determined by applying the MaxEnt algorithm on a set of potential environmental factors and species sample records. The ecological dependency of species on each environmental variable was analysed using response curves. We quantified the statistical performance of the models based on accuracy assessment and spatial predictions.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Our results suggest that Ae. aegypti is widely distributed in Lahore. Human population density and urban infrastructure are primarily responsible for greater probability of mosquito occurrence in this region. In Swat, Ae. aegypti has clumped distribution, where urban patches provide refuge to the species in an otherwise hostile heterogeneous environment and road networks are assumed to have facilitated in passive-mediated dispersal of species.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In Pakistan, Ae. aegypti is expanding its range northwards; this could be associated with rapid urbanisation, trade and travel. The main implication of this expansion is that more people are at risk of dengue fever in the northern highlands of Pakistan.
authors.affiliation: Department of Space Science, Institute of Space Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan.
authors.forename: Syeda Hira
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Fatima
authors.affiliation: Institute of Geographical Information System, National University of Sciences and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan.
authors.forename: Salman
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Atif
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan.
authors.forename: Syed Basit
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Rasheed
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan.
authors.forename: Farrah
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Zaidi
authors.affiliation: Institute of Geographical Information System, National University of Sciences and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan.
authors.forename: Ejaz
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Hussain
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes; D000818:Animals; D003710:Demography; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000635:transmission; D004777:Environment; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010154:Pakistan / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Aedes aegypti; MaxEnt; Pakistan; Paquistán; Vector ecology; ecología de vectores; écologie du vecteur