title: Nutritional predictors of chronic disease in a Central Australian Aboriginal cohort: A multi-mixture modelling analysis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Chronic diseases (including diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypertension and chronic kidney disease) are major contributors to the total burden of disease for Aboriginal people. Here we used novel epidemiological modelling to investigate nutritional profiles at a population level associated with chronic disease.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Multi-mixture modelling, was used to group members of a Central Australian Aboriginal population (n = 444) based on their nutritional profile from a risk factor prevalence survey in 1995. Multi-mixture modelling assigned % membership to four classes; Class 1 (young, low adiposity and lipids, low dietary antioxidants; n = 171.7); Class 2 (older, greater adiposity and lipids; n = 22.6); Class 3 (predominantly female, greater adiposity and antioxidants, low smoking; n = 134.3) and Class 4 (predominantly male, greater lipids and adiposity, low antioxidants, high smoking prevalence; n = 115.4). For persons free of chronic disease (n = 285), incident chronic disease for classes 1, 3 and 4 was determined using follow up hospital, primary health care and death records collected in 2004/05. Fifty-four percent of Class 4 had incident chronic disease, an excess of 3355 events per 100,000 person years relative to Class 1. Incident CVD, hypertension, or CKD was highest for Class 4 and incident diabetes highest for Class 3.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Multi-mixture modelling appears useful in identifying population subgroups of an Aboriginal population at risk of chronic conditions.
authors.affiliation: Onemda Group, Indigenous Health Equity Unit, Centre for Health Equity, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton South, VIC 3053, Australia. Electronic address: jnluke@unimelb.edu.au.
authors.forename: J N
authors.initials: JN
authors.lastname: Luke
authors.affiliation: Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton South, VIC 3053, Australia.
authors.forename: D F
authors.initials: DF
authors.lastname: Schmidt
authors.affiliation: Onemda Group, Indigenous Health Equity Unit, Centre for Health Equity, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton South, VIC 3053, Australia.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ritte
authors.affiliation: Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton South, VIC 3053, Australia.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: O'Dea
authors.affiliation: Wardliparingga Aboriginal Research Unit, South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton South, VIC 3053, Australia.
authors.forename: L S
authors.initials: LS
authors.lastname: Piers
authors.affiliation: NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2050, Australia.
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Jenkins
authors.affiliation: Onemda Group, Indigenous Health Equity Unit, Centre for Health Equity, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Carlton South, VIC 3053, Australia.
authors.forename: K G
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Rowley
mesh_terms: D050154:Adiposity / Q000208:ethnology; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000975:Antioxidants / Q000008:administration & dosage; D001315:Australia; D002908:Chronic Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology; D004032:Diet / Q000208:ethnology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004041:Dietary Fats / Q000008:administration & dosage; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D015596:Nutrition Assessment; D009752:Nutritional Status / Q000208:ethnology; D015995:Prevalence; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D065840:Protective Factors; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D000975:Antioxidants; D004041:Dietary Fats
keywords: Aboriginal; Chronic disease; Multi-mixture modelling; Nutrition