title: Uncertainty analysis of primary water pollutant control in China's pulp and paper industry.
abstract: The total emission control target of water pollutants (e.g., COD and NH4-N) for a certain industrial sector can be predicted and analysed using the popular technology-based bottom-up modelling. However, this methodology has obvious uncertainty regarding the attainment of mitigation targets. The primary uncertainty comes from macro-production, pollutant reduction roadmap, and technical parameters. This research takes the paper and pulp industry in China as an example, and builds 5 mitigation scenarios via different combinations of raw material structure, scale structure, procedure mitigation technology, and end-of-pipe treatment technology. Using the methodology of uncertainty analysis via Monte Carlo, random sampling was conducted over a hundred thousand times. According to key parameters, sensitive parameters that impact total emission control targets such as industrial output, technique structure, cleaner production technology, and end-of-pipe treatment technology are discussed in this article. It appears that scenario uncertainty has a larger influence on COD emission than NH4-N, hence it is recommended that a looser total emission control target for COD is necessary to increase its feasibility and availability while maintaining the status quo of NH4-N. Consequently, from uncertainty analysis, this research recognizes the sensitive products, techniques, and technologies affecting industrial water pollution.
authors.affiliation: State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China. Electronic address: wenzg@tsinghua.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Zong-guo
authors.initials: ZG
authors.lastname: Wen
authors.affiliation: State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
authors.forename: Jing-han
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Di
authors.affiliation: State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
authors.forename: Xue-ying
authors.initials: XY
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D007220:Industrial Waste / Q000032:analysis; D007221:Industry; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D010209:Paper; D035501:Uncertainty; D014873:Water Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D014876:Water Pollution / Q000032:analysis
chemical_list: D007220:Industrial Waste; D014873:Water Pollutants
keywords: COD and NH(4)–N emission; Paper and pulp industry; Total emission control; Uncertainty analysis