title: Spatio-Temporal Identification of Areas Suitable for West Nile Disease in the Mediterranean Basin and Central Europe.
abstract: West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted Flavivirus belonging to the Japanese encephalitis antigenic complex of the Flaviviridae family. Its spread in the Mediterranean basin and the Balkans poses a significant risk to human health and forces public health officials to constantly monitor the virus transmission to ensure prompt application of preventive measures. In this context, predictive tools indicating the areas and periods at major risk of WNV transmission are of paramount importance. Spatial analysis approaches, which use environmental and climatic variables to find suitable habitats for WNV spread, can enhance predictive techniques. Using the Mahalanobis Distance statistic, areas ecologically most suitable for sustaining WNV transmission were identified in the Mediterranean basin and Central Europe. About 270 human and equine clinical cases notified in Italy, Greece, Portugal, Morocco, and Tunisia, between 2008 and 2012, have been considered. The environmental variables included in the model were altitude, slope, night time Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Enhanced Vegetation Index, and daily temperature range. Seasonality of mosquito population has been modelled and included in the analyses to produce monthly maps of suitable areas for West Nile Disease. Between May and July, the most suitable areas are located in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and North Cyprus. Summer/Autumn months, particularly between August and October, characterize the suitability in Italy, France, Spain, the Balkan countries, Morocco, North Tunisia, the Mediterranean coast of Africa, and the Middle East. The persistence of suitable conditions in December is confined to the coastal areas of Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Israel.
authors.affiliation: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise 'G. Caporale', Teramo, Italy.
authors.forename: Annamaria
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Conte
authors.affiliation: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise 'G. Caporale', Teramo, Italy.
authors.forename: Luca
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Candeloro
authors.affiliation: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise 'G. Caporale', Teramo, Italy.
authors.forename: Carla
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ippoliti
authors.affiliation: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise 'G. Caporale', Teramo, Italy.
authors.forename: Federica
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Monaco
authors.affiliation: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise 'G. Caporale', Teramo, Italy.
authors.forename: Fabrizio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: De Massis
authors.affiliation: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise 'G. Caporale', Teramo, Italy.
authors.forename: Rossana
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Bruno
authors.affiliation: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise 'G. Caporale', Teramo, Italy.
authors.forename: Daria
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Di Sabatino
authors.affiliation: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise 'G. Caporale', Teramo, Italy.
authors.forename: Maria Luisa
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Danzetta
authors.affiliation: Société de Produits Biologiques et Pharmaceutiques vétérinaires (Biopharma), Rabat, Morocco.|Laboratory of Microbiology and Molecular Biology, University Mohamed V, Faculty of Science, Rabat, Morocco.
authors.forename: Abdennasser
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Benjelloun
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Microbiology and Molecular Biology, University Mohamed V, Faculty of Science, Rabat, Morocco.
authors.forename: Bouchra
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Belkadi
authors.affiliation: Société de Produits Biologiques et Pharmaceutiques vétérinaires (Biopharma), Rabat, Morocco.
authors.forename: Mehdi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: El Harrak
authors.affiliation: Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Reparto Epidemiologia delle Malattie Infettive, Centro Nazionale di Epidemiologia, Sorveglianza e Promozione della Salute, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Silvia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Declich
authors.affiliation: Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Reparto Epidemiologia delle Malattie Infettive, Centro Nazionale di Epidemiologia, Sorveglianza e Promozione della Salute, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Caterina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Rizzo
authors.affiliation: Ecole Nationale de Médecine Vétérinaire de Sidi Thabet (ENMV), Sidi Thabet, Tunisia.
authors.forename: Salah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hammami
authors.affiliation: Ecole Nationale de Médecine Vétérinaire de Sidi Thabet (ENMV), Sidi Thabet, Tunisia.
authors.forename: Thameur
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ben Hassine
authors.affiliation: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise 'G. Caporale', Teramo, Italy.
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Calistri
authors.affiliation: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell'Abruzzo e del Molise 'G. Caporale', Teramo, Italy.
authors.forename: Giovanni
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Savini
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D004777:Environment; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D006734:Horse Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D006736:Horses / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D019083:Mediterranean Region / Q000453:epidemiology; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D014901:West Nile Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary; D014902:West Nile virus / Q000502:physiology