title: Scenario tree model for animal disease freedom framed in the OIE context using the example of a generic swine model for Aujeszky's disease in commercial swine in Canada.
abstract: "Freedom from animal disease" is an ambiguous concept that may have a different meaning in trade and science. For trade alone, there are different levels of freedom from OIE listed diseases. A country can: be recognized by OIE to be "officially free"; self-declare freedom, with no official recognition by the OIE; or report animal disease as absent (no occurrence) in six-monthly reports. In science, we apply scenario tree models to calculate the probability of a population being free from disease at a given prevalence to provide evidence of freedom from animal disease. Here, we link science with application by describing how a scenario tree model may contribute to a country's claim of freedom from animal disease. We combine the idea of a standardized presentation of scenario tree models for disease freedom and having a similar model for two different animal diseases to suggest that a simple generic model may help veterinary authorities to build and evaluate scenario tree models for disease freedom. Here, we aim to develop a generic scenario tree model for disease freedom that is: animal species specific, population specific, and has a simple structure. The specific objectives were: to explore the levels of freedom described in the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code; to describe how scenario tree models may contribute to a country's claim of freedom from animal disease; and to present a generic swine scenario tree model for disease freedom in Canada's domestic (commercial) swine applied to Aujeszky's disease (AD). In particular, to explore how historical survey data, and data mining may affect the probability of freedom and to explore different sampling strategies. Finally, to frame the generic scenario tree model in the context of Canada's claim of freedom from AD. We found that scenario tree models are useful to support a country's claim of freedom either as "recognized officially free" or as part of a self-declaration but the models should not stand alone in a claim. The generic AD scenario tree model demonstrated the benefit of combining three sources of surveillance data and helped to design the surveillance for the next year. The generic AD scenario model is one piece in Canada's self-declaration of freedom from AD. The model is strongly supported by the fact that AD has never been detected in Canada.
authors.affiliation: Terrestrial Animal Health Epidemiology and Surveillance Section, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, 550 University Avenue, Charlottetown, PEI C1A 4P3, Canada. Electronic address: Jette.Christensen@inspection.gc.ca.
authors.forename: Jette
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Christensen
authors.affiliation: Terrestrial Animal Health Epidemiology and Surveillance Section, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, 3200 rue Sicotte, C.P. 5000 Saint Hyacinthe, Quebec, Canada.
authors.forename: André
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Vallières
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry; D000818:Animals; D002170:Canada / Q000453:epidemiology; D011558:Herpesvirus 1, Suid / Q000502:physiology*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015995:Prevalence; D011336:Probability; D011557:Pseudorabies / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D014944:World Health Organization
keywords: Absence of disease; Aujeszky’s disease; Freedom from animal disease; OIE; Scenario tree modelling; Swine