title: [Driving force analysis of land use change in the developed area based on Probit regression model: A case study of Nanjing City, China].
abstract: Based on the remote sensing image in 1996, 2002 and 2010, with the help of RS and GIS technology, and using the Probit regression model, this paper analyzed the characteristics of land use change in Nanjing City from 1996 to 2010, and the driving factors of land use change. The results showed that the cultivated land and woodland decreased, constructive land, garden plot and grassland continued to increase, and the comprehensive land use change rate was rising since 1996. The results of regression model for cultivated land and woodland change indicated that the change of cultivated land in the years 1996-2002 was mainly affected by the factors of "distance to the nearest rural settlement" and "farmers' population density". However, in the years 2002-2010 it was mainly affected by the factors of "change of per area GDP", "distance to the rural settlement" and "distance to the nearest road". The change of woodland in the years 1996-2002 was mainly affected by the factors of "the elevation" and "distance to the rural settlement". However, in the years 2002-2010 it was mainly affected by the factors of "change of per area GDP", "population density" and "distance to the nearest road". By comparison, the early driving factors of land use change were mainly natural factors, but in recent years, they were mainly social, economic and demographic factors.
authors.forename: Kang
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Yue-e
authors.initials: YE
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Qun
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.forename: Jian-fen
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Shen
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002681:China; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D065928:Forests; D065948:Grassland; D008962:Models, Theoretical