title: Application of syndromic surveillance on routinely collected cattle reproduction and milk production data for the early detection of outbreaks of Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses.
abstract: This study aimed to evaluate the use of routinely collected reproductive and milk production data for the early detection of emerging vector-borne diseases in cattle in the Netherlands and the Flanders region of Belgium (i.e., the northern part of Belgium). Prospective space-time cluster analyses on residuals from a model on milk production were carried out to detect clusters of reduced milk yield. A CUSUM algorithm was used to detect temporal aberrations in model residuals of reproductive performance models on two indicators of gestation length. The Bluetongue serotype-8 (BTV-8) epidemics of 2006 and 2007 and the Schmallenberg virus (SBV) epidemic of 2011 were used as case studies to evaluate the sensitivity and timeliness of these methods. The methods investigated in this study did not result in a more timely detection of BTV-8 and SBV in the Netherlands and BTV-8 in Belgium given the surveillance systems in place when these viruses emerged. This could be due to (i) the large geographical units used in the analyses (country, region and province level), and (ii) the high level of sensitivity of the surveillance systems in place when these viruses emerged. Nevertheless, it might be worthwhile to use a syndromic surveillance system based on non-specific animal health data in real-time alongside regular surveillance, to increase the sense of urgency and to provide valuable quantitative information for decision makers in the initial phase of an emerging disease outbreak.
authors.affiliation: GD Animal Health, PO Box 9, 7400 AA Deventer, The Netherlands. Electronic address: a.veldhuis@gdanimalhealth.com.
authors.forename: Anouk
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Veldhuis
authors.affiliation: GD Animal Health, PO Box 9, 7400 AA Deventer, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Henriëtte
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Brouwer-Middelesch
authors.affiliation: INRA, UMR1300, Biologie, Epidémiologie et Analyse de Risque en santé animale, F-44307 Nantes, France; LUNAM Université, Oniris, F-44307 Nantes, France.
authors.forename: Alexis
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Marceau
authors.affiliation: INRA, UMR1300, Biologie, Epidémiologie et Analyse de Risque en santé animale, F-44307 Nantes, France; LUNAM Université, Oniris, F-44307 Nantes, France.
authors.forename: Aurélien
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Madouasse
authors.affiliation: CODA-CERVA, Groeselenberg 99, 1180 Brussels, Belgium; Ghent University, Laboratory of Veterinary Immunology, Merelbeke, Belgium.
authors.forename: Yves
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Van der Stede
authors.affiliation: INRA, UMR1300, Biologie, Epidémiologie et Analyse de Risque en santé animale, F-44307 Nantes, France; LUNAM Université, Oniris, F-44307 Nantes, France.
authors.forename: Christine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Fourichon
authors.affiliation: CODA-CERVA, Groeselenberg 99, 1180 Brussels, Belgium.
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Welby
authors.affiliation: GD Animal Health, PO Box 9, 7400 AA Deventer, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Wever
authors.affiliation: GD Animal Health, PO Box 9, 7400 AA Deventer, The Netherlands; Utrecht University, Department of Farm Animal Health, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Gerdien
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: van Schaik
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001530:Belgium / Q000453:epidemiology; D001819:Bluetongue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D001820:Bluetongue virus / Q000302:isolation & purification; D002044:Bunyaviridae Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000662:veterinary* / Q000821:virology; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring / Q000662:veterinary*; D005260:Female; D008892:Milk / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000821:virology; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D016851:Orthobunyavirus / Q000302:isolation & purification; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012098:Reproduction
keywords: Cattle; Early-warning; Syndromic surveillance; Vector-borne