title: Unveiling Spatial Epidemiology of HIV with Mobile Phone Data.
abstract: An increasing amount of geo-referenced mobile phone data enables the identification of behavioral patterns, habits and movements of people. With this data, we can extract the knowledge potentially useful for many applications including the one tackled in this study - understanding spatial variation of epidemics. We explored the datasets collected by a cell phone service provider and linked them to spatial HIV prevalence rates estimated from publicly available surveys. For that purpose, 224 features were extracted from mobility and connectivity traces and related to the level of HIV epidemic in 50 Ivory Coast departments. By means of regression models, we evaluated predictive ability of extracted features. Several models predicted HIV prevalence that are highly correlated (>0.7) with actual values. Through contribution analysis we identified key elements that correlate with the rate of infections and could serve as a proxy for epidemic monitoring. Our findings indicate that night connectivity and activity, spatial area covered by users and overall migrations are strongly linked to HIV. By visualizing the communication and mobility flows, we strived to explain the spatial structure of epidemics. We discovered that strong ties and hubs in communication and mobility align with HIV hot spots.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia.
authors.forename: Sanja
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Brdar
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia.
authors.forename: Katarina
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Gavrić
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia.|Department of Information Engineering and Computer Science, University of Trento, Trento, 38122, Italy.
authors.forename: Dubravko
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Ćulibrk
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia.|BioSense Institute, University of Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia.
authors.forename: Vladimir
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Crnojević
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D040421:Cell Phone; D062306:Geography, Medical; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance; D015995:Prevalence; D055771:Serbia / Q000453:epidemiology; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D055815:Young Adult