title: Breast Cancer in Lampang, a Province in Northern Thailand: Analysis of 1993-2012 Incidence Data and Future Trends.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The recent epidemiologic transition in Thailand, with decreasing incidence of infectious diseases along with increasing rates of chronic conditions, including cancer, is a serious problem for the country. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females throughout Thailand. Lampang is a province in the upper part of Northern Thailand. A study was needed to identify the current burden, and the future trends of breast cancer in upper Northern Thai women.
  
  
  METHODS
  Here we used cancer incidence data from the Lampang Cancer Registry to characterize and analyze the local incidence of breast cancer. Joinpoint analysis, age period cohort model and Nordpred package were used to investigate the incidences of breast cancer in the province from 1993 to 2012 and to project future trends from 2013 to 2030.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Age-standardized incidence rates (world) of breast cancer in the upper parts of Northern Thailand increased from 16.7 to 26.3 cases per 100,000 female population which is equivalent to an annual percentage change of 2.0-2.8%, according to the method used. Linear drift effects played a role in shaping the increase of incidence. The three projection method suggested that incidence rates would continue to increase in the future with incidence for women aged 50 and above, increasing at a higher rate than for women below the age of 50.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The current early detection measures increase detection rates of early disease. Preparation of a budget for treatment facilities and human resources, both in surgical and medical oncology, is essential.
authors.affiliation: Lampang Cancer Hospital, Lampang, Thailand E-mail : hutcha.s@psu.ac.th.
authors.forename: Somkiat
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lalitwongsa
authors.forename: Donsuk
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Pongnikorn
authors.forename: Karnchana
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Daoprasert
authors.forename: Hutcha
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Sriplung
authors.forename: Surichai
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bilheem
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008875:Middle Aged; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends*; D011379:Prognosis; D012042:Registries; D013785:Thailand / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors; D047368:Tumor Burden