title: Development and validation of a risk prediction algorithm for the recurrence of suicidal ideation among general population with low mood.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Suicidal ideation is one of the strongest predictors of recent and future suicide attempt. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction algorithm for the recurrence of suicidal ideation among population with low mood
  
  
  METHODS
  3035 participants from U.S National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions with suicidal ideation at their lowest mood at baseline were included. The Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule, based on the DSM-IV criteria was used. Logistic regression modeling was conducted to derive the algorithm. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in the development and validation cohorts.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the development data, the proportion of recurrent suicidal ideation over 3 years was 19.5 (95% CI: 17.7, 21.5). The developed algorithm consisted of 6 predictors: age, feelings of emptiness, sudden mood changes, self-harm history, depressed mood in the past 4 weeks, interference with social activities in the past 4 weeks because of physical health or emotional problems and emptiness was the most important risk factor. The model had good discriminative power (C statistic=0.8273, 95% CI: 0.8027, 0.8520). The C statistic was 0.8091 (95% CI: 0.7786, 0.8395) in the external validation dataset and was 0.8193 (95% CI: 0.8001, 0.8385) in the combined dataset.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study does not apply to people with suicidal ideation who are not depressed.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The developed risk algorithm for predicting the recurrence of suicidal ideation has good discrimination and excellent calibration. Clinicians can use this algorithm to stratify the risk of recurrence in patients and thus improve personalized treatment approaches, make advice and further intensive monitoring.
authors.affiliation: Departments of Psychiatry and of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Mathison Centre for Mental Health Research & Education, Hotchkiss Brain Institute, University of Calgary, TRW Building, 3280 Hospital Dr. NW, Calgary, AB, Canada T2N 4Z6. Electronic address: liuy@ucalgary.ca.
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, University of Manitoba, PZ430-771 Bannatyne Avenue Winnipeg, MB, Canada R3E 3N4.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Sareen
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, University of Manitoba, PZ430-771 Bannatyne Avenue Winnipeg, MB, Canada R3E 3N4.
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Bolton
authors.affiliation: Departments of Psychiatry and of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Mathison Centre for Mental Health Research & Education, Hotchkiss Brain Institute, University of Calgary, TRW Building, 3280 Hospital Dr. NW, Calgary, AB, Canada T2N 4Z6.
authors.forename: J L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000465:Algorithms; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D019964:Mood Disorders / Q000523:psychology*; D012008:Recurrence; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D059020:Suicidal Ideation; D014481:United States
keywords: Prediction algorithm; Recurrence; Suicidal ideation