title: Probability of atrial fibrillation after ablation: Using a parametric nonlinear temporal decomposition mixed effects model.
abstract: Atrial fibrillation is an arrhythmic disorder where the electrical signals of the heart become irregular. The probability of atrial fibrillation (binary response) is often time varying in a structured fashion, as is the influence of associated risk factors. A generalized nonlinear mixed effects model is presented to estimate the time-related probability of atrial fibrillation using a temporal decomposition approach to reveal the pattern of the probability of atrial fibrillation and their determinants. This methodology generalizes to patient-specific analysis of longitudinal binary data with possibly time-varying effects of covariates and with different patient-specific random effects influencing different temporal phases. The motivation and application of this model is illustrated using longitudinally measured atrial fibrillation data obtained through weekly trans-telephonic monitoring from an NIH sponsored clinical trial being conducted by the Cardiothoracic Surgery Clinical Trials Network.
authors.affiliation: 1 Heart and Vascular Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA.
authors.forename: Jeevanantham
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rajeswaran
authors.affiliation: 1 Heart and Vascular Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA.
authors.forename: Eugene H
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: Blackstone
authors.affiliation: 1 Heart and Vascular Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ehrlinger
authors.affiliation: 2 The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, University of Texas, Houston, TX, USA.
authors.forename: Liang
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: 3 Division of Biostatistics, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA.
authors.forename: Hemant
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ishwaran
authors.affiliation: 4 Mount Sinai Center for Biostatistics, Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY, USA.
authors.forename: Michael K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Parides
mesh_terms: D055011:Ablation Techniques; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000209:etiology* / Q000601:surgery*; D006801:Humans; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
keywords: Binary longitudinal response; mixed effects model; multiphase model; nonlinear model; temporal decomposition; time varying coefficient