title: Prediction of exacerbation onset in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients.
abstract: The objective of this study was to develop an algorithm for prediction of exacerbation onset in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) patients based on continuous self-monitoring of physiological parameters from telehome-care monitoring. 151 physiological parameters of COPD patients were monitored on a daily/weekly basis for up to 2 years. Data were segmented in 30-day periods leading up to an exacerbation (exacerbation episode) and starting from a 14-day recovery period post-exacerbation (control episode) and tested in 6 intervals to predict exacerbation onset using k-nearest neighbour (k = 1, 3, 5). A classifier with sensitivity of 73%, specificity of 74%, positive predictive value of 69%, negative predictive value of 78% and an accuracy of 74% was achieved using data intervals consisting of 5 days. Intelligent processing of physiological recordings have potential for predicting exacerbation onset.
authors.affiliation: a Department of Health Science and Technology , Aalborg University , Aalborg , Denmark ;
authors.forename: Hans Christian
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Riis
authors.affiliation: a Department of Health Science and Technology , Aalborg University , Aalborg , Denmark ;
authors.forename: Morten H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Jensen
authors.affiliation: a Department of Health Science and Technology , Aalborg University , Aalborg , Denmark ;
authors.forename: Simon Lebech
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Cichosz
authors.affiliation: a Department of Health Science and Technology , Aalborg University , Aalborg , Denmark ;|b Department of Health and Nursing Science , University of Agder , Grimstad , Norway ;|c Department of Computer Science , University of Tromsø , Tromsø , Norway.
authors.forename: Ole K
authors.initials: OK
authors.lastname: Hejlesen
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000465:Algorithms; D001795:Blood Pressure Determination; D003936:Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted / Q000379:methods*; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010092:Oximetry; D011379:Prognosis; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000175:diagnosis*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D017216:Telemedicine / Q000379:methods*
keywords: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; decision modelling; disease exacerbation; telehome-care