title: Online Tool to Improve Stratification of Adverse Events in Stroke Clinical Trials.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Knowing characteristic adverse events (AEs) and their incidence among patients participating in acute stroke trials may assist interpretation of future studies. We aimed to develop an online tool to inform stroke trial safety.
  
  
  METHODS
  We identified relevant AEs from patients within the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA), using receiver operating characteristic principles. We modeled their incidence on patient age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and comorbidities using binary logistic regression. Models with an R(2) >5% were deemed powerful enough to predict expected AE incidences and were included. The calculator was developed using programs R and Visual Studios.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Forty-eight of the most common AEs were identified and incorporated into the IschAEmic Stroke Calculator. The calculator, publicly available at http://www.vistacollaboration.org calculates the expected incidence of AEs or groups of AEs in a trial cohort and where possible compares them with the observed incidence.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The IschAEmic Stroke Calculator is an open access resource to support safety interpretation within acute stroke trials. Prediction of AEs with higher likelihood of occurrence may direct preventive clinical measures.
authors.affiliation: From the Medical School (K.H.), Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences (A.H.A.-R, K.R.L., R.L.M.), University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom; Department of Neurology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA (P.D.L.); and Department of Statistics, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bieberach, Germany (E.B.).
authors.forename: Kerrick
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hesse
authors.affiliation: From the Medical School (K.H.), Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences (A.H.A.-R, K.R.L., R.L.M.), University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom; Department of Neurology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA (P.D.L.); and Department of Statistics, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bieberach, Germany (E.B.).
authors.forename: Rachael L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: MacIsaac
authors.affiliation: From the Medical School (K.H.), Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences (A.H.A.-R, K.R.L., R.L.M.), University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom; Department of Neurology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA (P.D.L.); and Department of Statistics, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bieberach, Germany (E.B.). Azmil.Abdul-Rahim@glasgow.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Azmil H
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: Abdul-Rahim
authors.affiliation: From the Medical School (K.H.), Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences (A.H.A.-R, K.R.L., R.L.M.), University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom; Department of Neurology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA (P.D.L.); and Department of Statistics, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bieberach, Germany (E.B.).
authors.forename: Patrick D
authors.initials: PD
authors.lastname: Lyden
authors.affiliation: From the Medical School (K.H.), Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences (A.H.A.-R, K.R.L., R.L.M.), University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom; Department of Neurology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA (P.D.L.); and Department of Statistics, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bieberach, Germany (E.B.).
authors.forename: Erich
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bluhmki
authors.affiliation: From the Medical School (K.H.), Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences (A.H.A.-R, K.R.L., R.L.M.), University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom; Department of Neurology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA (P.D.L.); and Department of Statistics, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bieberach, Germany (E.B.).
authors.forename: Kennedy R
authors.initials: KR
authors.lastname: Lees
mesh_terms: D001109:Archives; D006801:Humans; D020407:Internet / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000069451:Long Term Adverse Effects / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012372:ROC Curve; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic; D020521:Stroke / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*
keywords: comorbidity; factor analysis, statistical; incidence; prognosis; stroke