title: Effects of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and tobacco-attributable deaths in Mexico: the SimSmoke model.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To examine how policies adopted in Mexico in response to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control affected smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.
  
  
  METHODS
  The SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy is applied to Mexico. This discrete time, first-order Markov model uses data on population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy for Mexico. It assesses, individually and jointly, the effects of seven types of policies: cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, advertising bans, warning labels, cessation treatment, and youth tobacco access policies.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The Mexico SimSmoke model estimates that smoking rates have been reduced by about 30% as a result of policies implemented since 2002, and that the number of smoking-attributable deaths will have been reduced by about 826 000 by 2053. Increases in cigarette prices are responsible for over 60% of the reductions, but health warnings, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions and cessation treatments also play important roles.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Mexico has shown steady progress towards reducing smoking prevalence in a short period of time, as have other Latin American countries, such as Brazil, Panama and Uruguay. Tobacco control policies play an important role in continued efforts to reduce tobacco use and associated deaths in Mexico.
authors.affiliation: Department of Tobacco Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico.
authors.forename: Luz Myriam
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Reynales-Shigematsu
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States of America.
authors.forename: Nancy L
authors.initials: NL
authors.lastname: Fleischer
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, United States of America.
authors.forename: James F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Thrasher
authors.affiliation: Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States of America, dl777@georgetown.edu.
authors.forename: Yian
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States of America.
authors.forename: Rafael
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Meza
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry & Behavioral Sciences, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, United States of America.
authors.forename: K Michael
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Cummings
authors.affiliation: Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States of America, dl777@georgetown.edu.
authors.forename: David T
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Levy
mesh_terms: D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D008800:Mexico; D015995:Prevalence; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology; D016540:Smoking Cessation; D014026:Nicotiana