title: First-Line Chemotherapy for Metastatic Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Clinico-Biological Predictors of Disease Control.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study aimed to identify predictors of tumor control (TC) in metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients receiving first-line chemotherapy.
  
  
  METHODS
  A development cohort of 68 patients from a prospective multicenter trial (NCT01248299) was used to identify predictors of TC at first radiological tumor assessment and to generate a predictive score for TC. That score was applied in an independent retrospective single-center validation cohort of 60 consecutive patients.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Multivariate analysis identified three predictors of TC: body mass index ≥18.5 (OR 4.5, 95% CI 0.91-22.5), absence of bone metastasis (OR 4.6, 95% CI 0.91-23.2) and albumin ≥35 g/l (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.0-12.1). Based on the presence or absence of these three independent prognosticators, we built a predictive model using a score from 0 to 3. In the development cohort, the TC rates were 14.3 and 78.0% and in the validation cohort 12.5 and 44.2%, for scores of 0-1 and 2-3, respectively. With negative predictive values of 85 and 88% in the development and validation cohorts, respectively, we were able to identify patients with a very low probability of TC.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We have developed and validated a score that can be easily determined at the bedside to predict TC in metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients.
authors.affiliation: Centre Oscar Lambret, Lille, France.
authors.forename: Nuria
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Kotecki
authors.forename: Sandrine
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hiret
authors.forename: Pierre-Luc
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Etienne
authors.forename: Nicolas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Penel
authors.forename: Emmanuelle
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Tresch
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: François
authors.forename: Marie Pierre
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Galais
authors.forename: Meher
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ben Abdelghani
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Michel
authors.forename: Laetitia
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Dahan
authors.forename: François
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Ghiringelli
authors.forename: Laurent
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Bedenne
authors.forename: Emmanuelle
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Samalin
authors.forename: Guillaume
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Piessen
authors.forename: Jafaar
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bennouna
authors.forename: Charlotte
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Peugniez
authors.forename: Farid
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: El Hajbi
authors.forename: Stéphanie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Clisant
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kramar
authors.forename: Christophe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Mariette
authors.forename: Antoine
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Adenis
mesh_terms: D000971:Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols / Q000008:administration & dosage; D019540:Area Under Curve; D015992:Body Mass Index; D001859:Bone Neoplasms / Q000556:secondary*; D002294:Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000556:secondary; D002945:Cisplatin; D004938:Esophageal Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000473:pathology; D005260:Female; D005472:Fluorouracil / Q000008:administration & dosage; D006801:Humans; D002955:Leucovorin / Q000008:administration & dosage; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D009944:Organoplatinum Compounds / Q000008:administration & dosage; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D066066:Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012709:Serum Albumin / Q000378:metabolism; D015996:Survival Rate; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014747:Vinblastine / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000031:analogs & derivatives; D000077235:Vinorelbine
chemical_list: D009944:Organoplatinum Compounds; D012709:Serum Albumin; D014747:Vinblastine; D002945:Cisplatin; D002955:Leucovorin; D000077235:Vinorelbine; D005472:Fluorouracil