title: Drought prediction and sustainable development of the ecological environment.
abstract: In the 1990s ecological early warning research began with the aim of elucidating the effect of drought in dry regions of the world. Drought has been a prevalent natural disaster, ravaging the Yun'nan province of China for over 5 years since 2009. Due to the extensive range, depth and devastating losses, the drought has reached a once-in-a-century severity. Yun'nan province suffered particularly badly from the drought, which took its toll on both the ecological environment and the sustainable economic development of the province. We chose to study Pu'er city in Yun'nun province for this research, and analysed the drought traits of Pu'er city utilizing geographic information technology. We applied the Mann-Kendall test for trend, linear tendency estimation and percentage of precipitation anomalies, as well as using combinations of monthly data searches of meteorological reports from 1980-2010. The results showed that except for a small rise in spring precipitation, the overall rainfall of Pu'er city showed a decreasing trend. The results of this study can provide an adequate and reliable theoretical basis and technological methods for use in government decision making, and promote research into early warning ecology.
authors.affiliation: School of Resource Environment and Earth Science, Yunnan University, 2th of Cuihu North Road, Kunming, 650091, China.
authors.forename: X H
authors.initials: XH
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: School of Resource Environment and Earth Science, Yunnan University, 2th of Cuihu North Road, Kunming, 650091, China. xuxh@ynu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Z Q
authors.initials: ZQ
authors.lastname: Lv
authors.affiliation: Institution of Traveling and Geology Science, Jilin Normal University, Siping, 136000, China.
authors.forename: X Y
authors.initials: XY
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: School of Resource Environment and Earth Science, Yunnan University, 2th of Cuihu North Road, Kunming, 650091, China.
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Jiang
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D055864:Droughts; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011379:Prognosis; D011891:Rain; D012621:Seasons
keywords: Drought prediction; Ecological environment; Sustainable development