title: Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis of Scarlet Fever Incidence in Beijing, China, 2005-2014.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To probe the spatiotemporal patterns of the incidence of scarlet fever in Beijing, China, from 2005 to 2014.
  
  
  METHODS
  A spatiotemporal analysis was conducted at the district/county level in the Beijing region based on the reported cases of scarlet fever during the study period. Moran's autocorrelation coefficient was used to examine the spatial autocorrelation of scarlet fever, whereas the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic was used to determine the hotspot incidence of scarlet fever. Likewise, the space-time scan statistic was used to detect the space-time clusters, including the relative risk of scarlet fever incidence across all settings.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 26,860 scarlet fever cases were reported in Beijing during the study period (2005-2014). The average annual incidence of scarlet fever was 14.25 per 100,000 population (range, 6.76 to 32.03 per 100,000). The incidence among males was higher than that among females, and more than two-thirds of scarlet fever cases (83.8%) were among children 3-8 years old. The seasonal incidence peaks occurred from March to July. A higher relative risk area was mainly in the city and urban districts of Beijing. The most likely space-time clusters and secondary clusters were detected to be diversely distributed in every study year.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The spatiotemporal patterns of scarlet fever were relatively unsteady in Beijing from 2005 to 2014. The at-risk population was mainly scattered in urban settings and dense districts with high population, indicating a positive relationship between population density and increased risk of scarlet fever exposure. Children under 15 years of age were the most susceptible to scarlet fever.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China. gbmahara@gmail.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. gbmahara@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Gehendra
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Mahara
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China. 13810147054@139.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. 13810147054@139.com.
authors.forename: Chao
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Institute for Infectious Disease &amp; Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention &amp; Control (CDC), Beijing Center for Preventive Medical Research, Beijing 100069, China. howardhuo@139.com.
authors.forename: Da
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Huo
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China. xuqinhuachong@126.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. xuqinhuachong@126.com.
authors.forename: Qin
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China. hff87hff87@163.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. hff87hff87@163.com.
authors.forename: Fangfang
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China. taolixin.2008@163.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. taolixin.2008@163.com.
authors.forename: Lixin
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Tao
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China. guojin5827501@163.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. guojin5827501@163.com.
authors.forename: Jin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China. anzhen602@163.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. anzhen602@163.com.
authors.forename: Kai
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Cao
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China. llstatistics@163.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. llstatistics@163.com.
authors.forename: Liu
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Long
authors.affiliation: Department of Geriatrics, XuanWu Hospital of Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China. chhetri_jk@hotmail.com.
authors.forename: Jagadish K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Chhetri
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China. gaoqi@ccmu.edu.cn.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. gaoqi@ccmu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Qi
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China. wei.wang@ecu.edu.au.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. wei.wang@ecu.edu.au.|Systems and Intervention Research Centre for Health, School of Medical Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Perth 6027, Australia. wei.wang@ecu.edu.au.
authors.forename: Wei
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Institute for Infectious Disease &amp; Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Prevention &amp; Control (CDC), Beijing Center for Preventive Medical Research, Beijing 100069, China. bjcdcxm@126.com.
authors.forename: Quanyi
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100069, China. guoxiuh@ccmu.edu.cn.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. guoxiuh@ccmu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Xiuhua
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Guo
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000068476:Beijing / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011156:Population Density; D012307:Risk Factors; D012424:Rural Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012541:Scarlet Fever / Q000453:epidemiology; D012621:Seasons; D012737:Sex Factors; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Beijing; children; scarlet fever; spatiotemporal patterns