title: [Comparison of the prognostic value of mortality Child Pugh Score and forecasting models of chronic liver disease in patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Peru].
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The assessment of prognosis is an essential part of the evaluation of all patients with liver cirrhosis. Currently continues to develop new models to optimize forecast accuracy mortality score is calculated by the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD).
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  Compare the prognostic accuracy of hospital mortality and short-term mortality CTP, MELD and other models in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective descriptive study, comparison type of diagnostic test that included 84 patients. The score CTP, MELD and other models were calculated on the first day of hospitalization. The prognostic accuracy of mortality was assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUROCs) of score CTP, MELD and other models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Hospital mortality and mortality in the short-term monitoring was 20 (23.8%) and 44 (52.4%), respectively. The AUROCs CTP, MELD, MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, RefitMELD and RefitMELD Na to predict hospital mortality was 0.4488, 0.5645, 0.5426, 0.5578, 0.5719, 0.5598 and 0.5754; and to predict short-term mortality was 0.5386, 0.5747, 0.5770, 0.5781, 0.5631, 0.5881 and 0.5693, respectively. By comparing each AUROCs of the CTP score, MELD and other models proved to be no better than the other (p>0.05).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study has not shown the predictive utility of the CTP score, MELD and other models (MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit Refit MELD and MELD Na) to evaluate hospital mortality or short-term mortality in a sample of patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Cayetano Heredia.
authors.affiliation: Hospital Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú.
authors.forename: Vanessa
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Valenzuela Granados
authors.affiliation: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú.
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Salazar-Quiñones
authors.affiliation: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú.
authors.forename: Lester
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Cheng-Zárate
authors.affiliation: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú.
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Malpica-Castillo
authors.affiliation: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú.
authors.forename: Jorge
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Huerta Mercado
authors.affiliation: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú.
authors.forename: Ray
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ticse
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D058625:End Stage Liver Disease / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006779:Hospitals, Public; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010568:Peru; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D012720:Severity of Illness Index