title: [Prevention of Alzheimer's dementia in Germany : A projection of the possible potential of reducing selected risk factors].
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Current international projections suggest that reducing the prevalence of seven well-established risk factors, midlife hypertension and obesity, diabetes mellitus, depression, physical inactivity, smoking and low educational attainment, may also substantially reduce the prevalence of Alzheimer's dementia (AD).
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  Following the procedures of the international projections, in this study we aimed to provide projections of a corresponding potential for prevention specific for Germany.
  
  
  METHODS
  For each risk factor separately and combined (with adjustment for the association between the risk factors) we calculated (1) the population attributable risk (PAR) for AD, (2) the corresponding total number of attributable AD cases and (3) the potential number of current AD cases that may have been prevented by a 10 %, 25 % and 50 % lower prevalence of the risk factors.
  
  
  RESULTS
  According to the population projections 30.5 % of the current AD cases in Germany could be attributable to the risk factors considered (305,000 AD cases in total). The highest estimated impact on AD prevalence was found for physical inactivity (PAR = 21.7 %, 217,000 attributable cases) and smoking (PAR = 14.9 %, 149,000 cases). A 10-50 % reduction in the prevalence of all seven risk factors could have potentially prevented 23,000-130,000 of the current AD cases in Germany.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The identified possible substantial potential for reducing AD prevalence should act as a strong additional incentive to reduce the seven risk factors in Germany.
authors.affiliation: Medizinische Fakultät, Institut für Sozialmedizin, Arbeitsmedizin und Public Health (ISAP), Universität Leipzig, Philipp-Rosenthal-Straße 55, 04103, Leipzig, Deutschland. tobias.luck@medizin.uni-leipzig.de.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Luck
authors.affiliation: Medizinische Fakultät, Institut für Sozialmedizin, Arbeitsmedizin und Public Health (ISAP), Universität Leipzig, Philipp-Rosenthal-Straße 55, 04103, Leipzig, Deutschland.
authors.forename: S G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Riedel-Heller
mesh_terms: D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D015897:Comorbidity; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D004522:Educational Status; D005240:Feasibility Studies; D005858:Germany; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D015995:Prevalence; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D040242:Risk Reduction Behavior; D057185:Sedentary Behavior; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000074606:Smoking Prevention
keywords: Alzheimer dementia; Lifestyle; Prevalence; Prevention; Risk factors