title: Growing sensitivity of maize to water scarcity under climate change.
abstract: Climate change can reduce crop yields and thereby threaten food security. The current measures used to adapt to climate change involve avoiding crops yield decrease, however, the limitations of such measures due to water and other resources scarcity have not been well understood. Here, we quantify how the sensitivity of maize to water availability has increased because of the shift toward longer-maturing varieties during last three decades in the Chinese Maize Belt (CMB). We report that modern, longer-maturing varieties have extended the growing period by an average of 8 days and have significantly offset the negative impacts of climate change on yield. However, the sensitivity of maize production to water has increased: maize yield across the CMB was 5% lower with rainfed than with irrigated maize in the 1980s and was 10% lower (and even >20% lower in some areas) in the 2000s because of both warming and the increased requirement for water by the longer-maturing varieties. Of the maize area in China, 40% now fails to receive the precipitation required to attain the full yield potential. Opportunities for water saving in maize systems exist, but water scarcity in China remains a serious problem.
authors.affiliation: College of Resources &Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China.|Department of Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, California 94305, USA.|Institute of Crop Science, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and the Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China.
authors.forename: Qingfeng
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Meng
authors.affiliation: College of Resources &Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China.
authors.forename: Xinping
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, California 94305, USA.
authors.forename: David B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Lobell
authors.affiliation: College of Resources &Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China.
authors.forename: Zhenling
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Cui
authors.affiliation: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
authors.forename: Yi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, NE 68583, USA.
authors.forename: Haishun
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: College of Resources &Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China.
authors.forename: Fusuo
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002681:China; D057231:Climate Change; D005502:Food; D005523:Food Supply; D006801:Humans; D013696:Temperature; D014867:Water; D014881:Water Supply; D003313:Zea mays / Q000254:growth & development*
chemical_list: D014867:Water