title: Dissecting geographic variation in population synchrony using the common vole in central Europe as a test bed.
abstract: Spatial synchrony of population fluctuations is ubiquitous in nature. Theoretical models suggest that correlated environmental stochasticity, dispersal, and trophic interactions are important promoters of synchrony in nature to leave characteristic signatures of distance-dependent decays in synchrony. Recent refinements of this theory have clarified how distance-decay curves may steepen if local dynamics are governed by different density-dependent feedbacks and how synchrony should vary regionally if the importance and correlation of environmental stochasticity is location-specific. We analysed spatiotemporal data for the common vole, Microtus arvalis from 49 districts in the Czech Republic to examine the pattern of population synchrony between 2000 and 2014. By extending the nonparametric covariation function, we develop a quantitative method that allows a dissection of the effects of distance and additional variables such as altitude on synchrony. To examine the pattern of local synchrony, we apply the noncentered local-indicators of spatial association (ncLISA) which highlights areas with different degrees of synchrony than expected by the region-wide average. Additionally, in order to understand the obtained pattern of local spatial correlations, we have regressed LISA results against the proportion of forest in each district. The common vole abundances fluctuated strongly and exhibited synchronous dynamics with the typical tendency for a decline of synchrony with increasing distance but, not with altitude. The correlation between the neighbor districts decreases as the proportion of forest increases. Forested areas are suboptimum habitats and are strongly avoided by common voles. The investigation of spatiotemporal dynamics in animal populations is a key issue in ecology. Although the majority of studies are focused on testing hypotheses about which mechanisms are involved in shaping this dynamics it is crucial to understand the sources of variation involved in order to understand the underlying processes.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science Palacky University Olomouc Šlechtitelů 27 77146 Olomouc Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Ana R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Gouveia
authors.affiliation: Departement of Entomology and the Centre for Infectious Disease Dynamics the Pennsylvania State University State College Pennsylvania 16802.
authors.forename: Ottar N
authors.initials: ON
authors.lastname: Bjørnstad
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science Palacky University Olomouc Šlechtitelů 2777146 Olomouc Czech Republic; Institute of Vertebrate Biology Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Květná 8603 65 Brno Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Emil
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Tkadlec
keywords: Altitudinal gradient; LISA; Microtus arvalis; partial nonparametric correlation function; spatiotemporal dynamics
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