title: Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation.
abstract: Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose) niche in Andorra (Pyrenees). This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species's distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km(2) or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9-70.1 km(2) by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species' plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions.
authors.affiliation: Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i la Muntanya d'Andorra, Institut d'Estudis Andorrans (CENMA - IEA), Avinguda Rocafort 21-23, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Principality of Andorra.
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Komac
authors.affiliation: Departament de Geografia Física i Anàlisi Geogràfica Regional, Facultat de Geografia i Història, Universitat de Barcelona, Carrer de Montalegre 6-8, 08001 Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Pere
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Esteban
authors.affiliation: Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i la Muntanya d'Andorra, Institut d'Estudis Andorrans (CENMA - IEA), Avinguda Rocafort 21-23, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Principality of Andorra.
authors.forename: Laura
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Trapero
authors.affiliation: Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i la Muntanya d'Andorra, Institut d'Estudis Andorrans (CENMA - IEA), Avinguda Rocafort 21-23, AD600 Sant Julià de Lòria, Principality of Andorra.
authors.forename: Roger
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Caritg
mesh_terms: D000531:Altitude; D000725:Andorra; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D065928:Forests; D015233:Models, Statistical; D063148:Plant Dispersal / Q000502:physiology*; D029793:Rhododendron / Q000502:physiology*; D012621:Seasons; D036226:Seedlings / Q000502:physiology*; D012914:Snow
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