title: Weak signal detection: A discrete window of opportunity for achieving 'Vision 90:90:90'?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  UNAIDS' Vision 90:90:90 is a call to 'end AIDS'. Developing predictive foresight of the unpredictable changes that this journey will entail could contribute to the ambition of 'ending AIDS'. There are few opportunities for managing unpredictable changes. We introduce 'weak signal detection' as a potential opportunity to fill this void.
  
  
  METHODS
  Combining futures and complexity theory, we reflect on two pilot case studies that involved the Archetype Extraction technique and the SenseMaker(®) Collector(™) tool.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Both the piloted techniques have the potentials to surface weak signals--but there is room for improvement.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A management response to a complex weak signal requires pattern management, rather than an exclusive focus on behaviour management.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Weak signal detection is a window of opportunity to improve resilience to unpredictable changes in the HIV/AIDS landscape that can both reduce the risk that emerges from the changes and increase the visibility of opportunities to exploit the unpredictable changes that could contribute to 'ending AIDS'.
authors.affiliation: a PhD, is affiliated to Rural Development and Innovation Hub , University of Limpopo , Turfloop Campus, Polokwane , South Africa.
authors.forename: Christopher J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Burman
authors.affiliation: b Masters in Development, is affiliated to Rural Development and Innovation Hub , University of Limpopo , Turfloop Campus, Polokwane , South Africa.
authors.forename: Marota
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Aphane
authors.affiliation: c MD, PhD is affiliated to School of Public Health , University of the Western Cape , Robert Sobukwe Road, Belville , Cape Town 7535 , South Africa.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Delobelle
mesh_terms: D003153:Community Health Services / Q000458:organization & administration*; D019058:Community Networks / Q000458:organization & administration; D055317:Evidence-Based Practice; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006293:Health Promotion / Q000458:organization & administration*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009936:Organizational Innovation; D010865:Pilot Projects; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Cynefin framework; HIV/AIDS; VIH/SIDA; autopoiesis; complexity theory; futures science; sciences des futures; théorie de la complexité
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