title: A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf.
abstract: Climate change and decadal variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the exposure of a species to a stressor (climate change and decadal variability) and the sensitivity of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability. Quantitative data are used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion are used when quantitative data is lacking. Here we conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on 82 fish and invertebrate species in the Northeast U.S. Shelf including exploited, forage, and protected species. We define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change and decadal variability. We find that the overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for approximately half the species assessed; diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability. In addition, the majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. Negative effects of climate change are expected for approximately half of the species assessed, but some species are expected to be positively affected (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region). These results will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and decadal variability.
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett Laboratory, 28 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, Rhode Island, 02818, United States of America.
authors.forename: Jonathan A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Hare
authors.affiliation: Earth Resources Technology, Inc. Under contract for NOAA NMFS, Office of Sustainable Fisheries, 1315 East West Highway, Silver Spring, Maryland 20910, United States of America.
authors.forename: Wendy E
authors.initials: WE
authors.lastname: Morrison
authors.affiliation: Earth Resources Technology, Inc. Under contract for NOAA NMFS, Office of Sustainable Fisheries, 1315 East West Highway, Silver Spring, Maryland 20910, United States of America.
authors.forename: Mark W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Nelson
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS, Office of Sustainable Fisheries, 1315 East West Highway, Silver Spring, Maryland 20910, United States of America.
authors.forename: Megan M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Stachura
authors.affiliation: Earth Resources Technology, Inc. Under contract for NOAA NMFS, Office of Sustainable Fisheries, 1315 East West Highway, Silver Spring, Maryland 20910, United States of America.
authors.forename: Eric J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Teeters
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS, Office of Science and Technology, 1315 East West Highway, Silver Spring, Maryland 20910, United States of America.
authors.forename: Roger B
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: Griffis
authors.affiliation: NOAA OAR Earth Systems Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, Colorado 80305-3337, United States of America.
authors.forename: Michael A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Alexander
authors.affiliation: NOAA OAR Earth Systems Research Laboratory, 325 Broadway, Boulder, Colorado 80305-3337, United States of America.
authors.forename: James D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Scott
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole Laboratory, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, United States of America.
authors.forename: Larry
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Alade
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett Laboratory, 28 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, Rhode Island, 02818, United States of America.
authors.forename: Richard J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Bell
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole Laboratory, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, United States of America.
authors.forename: Antonie S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Chute
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole Laboratory, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, United States of America.
authors.forename: Kiersten L
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Curti
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Greater Atlantic Regional Fisheries Office, 55 Great Republic Drive, Gloucester, Massachusetts, 01930, United States of America.
authors.forename: Tobey H
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: Curtis
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Maine Field Station, 17 Godfrey Drive-Suite 1, Orono, Maine 04473, United States of America.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kircheis
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Maine Field Station, 17 Godfrey Drive-Suite 1, Orono, Maine 04473, United States of America.
authors.forename: John F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Kocik
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole Laboratory, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, United States of America.
authors.forename: Sean M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Lucey
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett Laboratory, 28 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, Rhode Island, 02818, United States of America.
authors.forename: Camilla T
authors.initials: CT
authors.lastname: McCandless
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Milford Laboratory, 212 Rogers Ave, Milford, Connecticut 06460, United States of America.
authors.forename: Lisa M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Milke
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett Laboratory, 28 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, Rhode Island, 02818, United States of America.
authors.forename: David E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Richardson
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole Laboratory, 166 Water Street, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, United States of America.
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Robillard
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett Laboratory, 28 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, Rhode Island, 02818, United States of America.
authors.forename: Harvey J
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Walsh
authors.affiliation: Integrated Statistics Under contract for NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett Laboratory, 28 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, Rhode Island, 02818, United States of America.
authors.forename: M Conor
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: McManus
authors.affiliation: Integrated Statistics Under contract for NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett Laboratory, 28 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, Rhode Island, 02818, United States of America.
authors.forename: Katrin E
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Marancik
authors.affiliation: NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett Laboratory, 28 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, Rhode Island, 02818, United States of America.
authors.forename: Carolyn A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Griswold
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001267:Atlantic Ocean; D057231:Climate Change; D064308:Ecological Parameter Monitoring; D063366:Estuaries; D005399:Fishes; D007448:Invertebrates; D008873:Mid-Atlantic Region; D009511:New England; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012098:Reproduction
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