title: [Analysis of prognostic value of initial serum paraquat concentration in patients with paraquat poisoning].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To investigate the prognostic values of initial serum paraquat (PQ) concentration and time lag after PQ ingestion in patients with PQ poisoning.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective analysis was performed on 189 patients who ingested PQ between 2.5 and 48 h before admission. The values of initial serum PQ concentration and time lag after PQ ingestion for the prognosis after poisoning were analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and multiple logistic regression analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The serum PQ concentration of non-survivors was significantly higher than that of survivors (P<0.01) , and the time lag after PQ ingestion of non-survivors was significantly longer than that of survivors (P<0.01). The ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) showed no significant difference between initial serum PQ concentration and serum PQ concentration-time data when the time lag after PQ ingestion was between 2.5 and 48 h (z=0.563, P=0.574) ; the AUC showed a significant difference between initial serum PQ concentration and serum PQ concentration-time data when the time lag after PQ ingestion was between 2.5 and 6 h (z=2.199, P=0.034) and between 6 and 48 h (z=2.525, P=0.012).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Initial serum PQ concentration has a better predictive power than serum PQ concentration-time data in evaluating the prognosis of patients when the time lag after PQ ingestion is within 6 h. However, serum PQ concentration-time data has a better predictive power than PQ concentration alone in evaluating the prognosis of patients when the time lag after PQ ingestion is between 6 and 48 h.
authors.affiliation: Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Pingjin Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Armed Police Logistics College, Tianjin 300162, China.
authors.forename: Liang
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Pingjin Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Armed Police Logistics College, Tianjin 300162, China.
authors.forename: Pengbo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.affiliation: Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Pingjin Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Armed Police Logistics College, Tianjin 300162, China.
authors.forename: Yang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Pingjin Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Armed Police Logistics College, Tianjin 300162, China.
authors.forename: Luqing
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Wei
authors.affiliation: Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Pingjin Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Armed Police Logistics College, Tianjin 300162, China; E-mail: hrct2008@aliyun.com.
authors.forename: Guoqiang
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Li
mesh_terms: D019540:Area Under Curve; D006801:Humans; D010269:Paraquat / Q000097:blood*; D011041:Poisoning / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis*; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D017741:Survivors; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D010269:Paraquat