title: Predictors of 1-Year Survival After Endovascular Aneurysm Repair.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The purpose of this study was to determine the preoperative variables that best predict 1-year survival following elective endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR), a period of time that would suggest the patient had benefited from the procedure. Most EVAR survival studies focus on early and late survival; scant information is available for 1-year survival.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data from two Australian audits of EVAR (1999-2001 and 2009-13) were combined (n = 1,647). Preoperative variables included routine demographic data, clinical health assessments, computed tomography-derived anatomical data, and all-cause mortality. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions determined which variables best predicted 1-year survival.
  
  
  RESULTS
  One-year survival after EVAR was 93.7% (1,544/1,647) and 30-day survival was 98.4% (1,620/1,647). Univariate analyses found that nine preoperative variables were significantly associated with 1-year survival. Five variables were included in the final multivariate model: American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, aneurysm diameter, creatinine, respiratory assessment, and severity of iliac artery calcification (receiver-operator curve 0.717, R(2) = .117). Predicted 1-year survival ranged from 98.6% to 68.0%, based on differences in aneurysm size and patient comorbidities.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Personalised 1-year survival risk enables surgeons and patients to consider seriously the risks and benefits of EVAR prior to surgery.
authors.affiliation: Discipline of Surgery, The University of Adelaide, Royal Adelaide Hospital and The Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Woodville, South Australia 5011, Australia. Electronic address: robert.fitridge@adelaide.edu.au.
authors.forename: R A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Fitridge
authors.affiliation: Discipline of Surgery, The University of Adelaide, Royal Adelaide Hospital and The Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Woodville, South Australia 5011, Australia.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Boult
authors.affiliation: Discipline of Surgery, The University of Adelaide, Royal Adelaide Hospital and The Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Woodville, South Australia 5011, Australia.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: de Loryn
authors.affiliation: Discipline of Surgery, The University of Adelaide, Royal Adelaide Hospital and The Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Woodville, South Australia 5011, Australia.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Cowled
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Adelaide, South Australia 5000, Australia.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Barnes
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D017544:Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D001027:Aortography / Q000379:methods; D019917:Blood Vessel Prosthesis Implantation / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000401:mortality; D015897:Comorbidity; D016208:Databases, Factual; D017558:Elective Surgical Procedures; D057510:Endovascular Procedures / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013021:South Australia; D013997:Time Factors; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed; D016896:Treatment Outcome
keywords: Abdominal aortic aneurysm; Endovascular procedures; Mortality