title: Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming.
abstract: EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon rainfall are known to have an inverse relationship, which we have observed in the rainfall spectrum exhibiting a spectral dip in 3-5 y period band. It is well documented that El Nino events are known to be associated with deficit rainfall. Our analysis reveals that this spectral dip (3-5 y) is likely to shift to shorter periods (2.5-3 y) in future, suggesting a possible shift in the relationship between ENSO and monsoon rainfall. Spectral analysis of future climate projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) models are employed in order to corroborate our findings. Change in spectral dip speculates early occurrence of drought events in future due to multiple factors of global warming.
authors.affiliation: Indian Institute of Technology Mandi, Mandi 75001 Himachal Pradesh, India.
authors.forename: Sarita
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Azad
authors.affiliation: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan 411 008 Pune, India.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rajeevan
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