title: Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity.
abstract: The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimodality of the LMI distribution means that major storms (LMI >96 kt) are not very rare compared with less intense storms. Rapid intensification (RI) is the dramatic strengthening of a TC in a short time, and is notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate. Here we show that the bimodality of the LMI distribution reflects two types of storms: those that undergo RI during their lifetime (RI storms) and those that do not (non-RI storms). The vast majority (79%) of major storms are RI storms. Few non-RI storms (6%) become major storms. While the importance of RI has been recognized in weather forecasting, our results demonstrate that RI also plays a crucial role in the TC climatology.
authors.affiliation: International Research Institute of Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, New York 10964, USA.
authors.forename: Chia-Ying
authors.initials: CY
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York 10027, USA.|Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia.
authors.forename: Michael K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Tippett
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York 10027, USA.|Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York 10964, USA.
authors.forename: Adam H
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: Sobel
authors.affiliation: Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York 10964, USA.
authors.forename: Suzana J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Camargo
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