title: Mexico SimSmoke: how changes in tobacco control policies would impact smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Mexico.
abstract: We examined the effect of tobacco control policies in Mexico on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths using the Mexico SimSmoke model. The model is based on the previously developed SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy, and uses population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Mexico. It assesses, individually, and in combination, the effect of six tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths. Policies included: cigarette excise taxes, smoke-free laws, anti-smoking public education campaigns, marketing restrictions, access to tobacco cessation treatments and enforcement against tobacco sales youth. The model estimates that, if Mexico were to adopt strong tobacco control policies compared to current policy levels, smoking prevalence could be reduced by 30% in the next decade and by 50% by 2053; an additional 470,000 smoking-related premature deaths could be averted over the next 40 years. The greatest impact on smoking and smoking-related deaths would be achieved by raising excise taxes on cigarettes from 55% to at least 70% of the retail price, followed by strong youth access enforcement and access to cessation treatments. Implementing tobacco control policies in Mexico could reduce smoking prevalence by 50%, and prevent 470,000 smoking-related deaths by 2053.
authors.affiliation: a Center for Social Epidemiology and Population Health, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health , University of Michigan , Ann Arbor , MI , USA.
authors.forename: Nancy L
authors.initials: NL
authors.lastname: Fleischer
authors.affiliation: b Department of Health Promotion, Education, and Behavior, Arnold School of Public Health , University of South Carolina , Columbia , SC , USA.|c Department of Tobacco Research, Center for Population Health Research , National Institute of Public Health , Cuernavaca , Mexico.
authors.forename: James F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Thrasher
authors.affiliation: c Department of Tobacco Research, Center for Population Health Research , National Institute of Public Health , Cuernavaca , Mexico.
authors.forename: Luz Myriam
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Reynales-Shigematsu
authors.affiliation: d Department of Psychiatry & Behavioral Sciences , Medical University of South Carolina , Charleston , SC , USA.
authors.forename: K Michael
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Cummings
authors.affiliation: e Department of Epidemiology , University of Michigan , Ann Arbor , MI , USA.
authors.forename: Rafael
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Meza
authors.affiliation: f Department of Oncology , Georgetown University , Washington , DC , USA.
authors.forename: Yian
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: g Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center , Georgetown University , Washington , DC , USA.
authors.forename: David T
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Levy
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality*; D064424:Tobacco Use / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Mexico; Tobacco control policies; smoking prevalence; smoking-attributable deaths
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