title: [Estimation of excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing with adjusted Serfling regression model].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing from 1 January 2011 to 23 May 2015.
  
  
  METHODS
  The excess numbers of diarrheal cases among the children aged <5 years were estimated by using weekly outpatient visit data from two children's hospital in Beijing and adjusted Serfling regression model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The incidence peaks of viral diarrhea were during 8th-10th week and 40th-42nd week in 2011, 40th-46th week in 2012, 43rd-49th week in 2013 and 45th week in 2014 to 11th week in 2015 respectively. The excess numbers of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in the two children's hospital were 911(95%CI: 261-1 561), 1 998(95%CI: 1 250-2 746), 1 645 (95%CI: 891-2 397), 2 806(95%CI: 1 938-3 674) and 1 822(95%CI: 614-3 031) respectively, accounting for 40.38%(95%CI: 11.57%-69.19%), 44.21% (95% CI: 27.66%-60.77%), 45.08% (95% CI: 24.42%-65.69%), 60.87% (95% CI: 42.04%-79.70%) and 66.62% (95% CI: 22.45%-110.82%) of total outpatient visits due to diarrhea during 2011-2015, respectively. Totally, the excess number of viral diarrheal cases among children aged <5 years in Beijing was estimated to be 18 731(95%CI: 10 106-27 354) from 2011 to 23 May 2015.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Winter is the season of viral diarrhea for children aged <5 years. The adjusted Serfling regression model analysis suggested that close attention should be paid to the etiologic variation of viruses causing acute gastroenteritis, especially the etiologic variation of norovirus.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China.
authors.forename: Lei
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Jia
authors.affiliation: Institute of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China.
authors.forename: Xiaoli
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Institute of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China.
authors.forename: Shuangsheng
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Chaoyang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China.
authors.forename: Jianxin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Tongzhou District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 101100, China.
authors.forename: Hongjun
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Institute of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China.
authors.forename: Zhiyong
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.affiliation: Institute of Infectious Disease and Endemic Disease Control, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China.
authors.forename: Quanyi
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000068476:Beijing / Q000453:epidemiology; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003967:Diarrhea / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology*; D004769:Enterovirus Infections; D005759:Gastroenteritis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D029322:Norovirus; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012621:Seasons