title: An Ecological Paradox: The African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus) Is Not Attracted to Water Points When Water Is Scarce in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe.
abstract: In dry biomes, spatio-temporal variation in surface water resource stocks is pervasive, with unknown effects on the ranging behaviour of large predators. This study assessed the effect of spatial variation in surface water resources on the ranging behaviour of the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus). We analyzed data for 1992 (dry year with 20 water points) and 2000 (wet year with 30 water points) against presence-only data for five packs of L. pictus in a part of Hwange National Park and adjacent smallholder communal farming areas in western Zimbabwe. Modelling the potential habitat for L. pictus using Maxent with distance from water points (Dw) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as predictor variables was successful for 2000 (AUC = 0.793) but not successful for 1992 (AUC = 0.423), with L. pictus probability of occurrence near water points being more for year 2000 than for year 1992. The predicted L. pictus range was wider in 1992 (~13888.1 km2) than in 2000 (~958.4 km2) (Test of Proportions, χ2 = 124.52, df = 1, P = 0.00). Using the 2nd order Multitype Nearest Neighbour Distance Function (Gcross), we also observed significant attraction between L. pictus and water points within only ~1km radius for 1992 but up to ~8km radius for 2000. Our study reinforced the notion that surface water resources attract wild dogs in the savannahs but paradoxically less so when water resources are scarce. In particular, our study furthers current understanding of the effects of changing water availability regimes on the endangered L. pictus, providing evidence that the endangered predator's home range encroaches into potential ecological traps (i.e., smallholder communal farming areas) when water resources are scarce.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Geo-information and Earth Observation Centre, University of Zimbabwe, Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe.
authors.forename: Henry
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ndaimani
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Geo-information and Earth Observation Centre, University of Zimbabwe, Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe.
authors.forename: Paradzayi
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Tagwireyi
authors.affiliation: Zimbabwe Parks and Wildlife Management Authority, Causeway, Harare, Zimbabwe.
authors.forename: Lovelater
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Sebele
authors.affiliation: Painted Dog Conservation, Hwange National Park, Dete, Zimbabwe.
authors.forename: Hillary
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Madzikanda
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild / Q000502:physiology; D019540:Area Under Curve; D001522:Behavior, Animal; D046028:Canidae / Q000502:physiology*; D017753:Ecosystem; D008954:Models, Biological; D012372:ROC Curve; D014881:Water Supply; D015030:Zimbabwe
references.citation: Science. 1997 Jan 24;275(5299):550-3
references.pmid: 8999803
references.citation: PLoS One. 2014 Jan 21;9(1):e86265
references.pmid: 24465998
references.citation: PLoS One. 2014 Jun 20;9(6):e100202
references.pmid: 24949735
references.citation: PLoS One. 2012;7(12):e51490
references.pmid: 23284700
references.citation: PLoS One. 2013 Jul 02;8(7):e67800
references.pmid: 23844097
references.citation: Oecologia. 2001 Aug;128(4):465-479
references.pmid: 28547391
references.citation: PLoS One. 2015 Feb 26;10(2):e0118461
references.pmid: 25719494
references.citation: PLoS One. 2014 Jun 04;9(6):e98846
references.pmid: 24896638
references.citation: Comp Biochem Physiol A Mol Integr Physiol. 2008 Oct;151(2):185-90
references.pmid: 18644247
references.citation: PLoS One. 2013 May 30;8(5):e63931
references.pmid: 23750191
references.citation: Ecol Lett. 2009 Sep;12(9):982-98
references.pmid: 19614756
references.citation: PLoS One. 2014 Jul 01;9(7):e101346
references.pmid: 24983377
references.citation: J Exp Biol. 2001 Jul;204(Pt 13):2301-11
references.pmid: 11507113
references.citation: Behav Processes. 2015 Apr;113:163-71
references.pmid: 25680329
references.citation: Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 1967 May;42(2):207-64
references.pmid: 4859903
references.citation: Monogr Popul Biol. 1982;17:1-296
references.pmid: 7162524