title: Using national movement databases to help inform responses to swine disease outbreaks in Scotland: the impact of uncertainty around incursion time.
abstract: Modelling is an important component of contingency planning and control of disease outbreaks. Dynamic network models are considered more useful than static models because they capture important dynamic patterns of farm behaviour as evidenced through animal movements. This study evaluates the usefulness of a dynamic network model of swine fever to predict pre-detection spread via movements of pigs, when there may be considerable uncertainty surrounding the time of incursion of infection. It explores the utility and limitations of animal movement data to inform such models and as such, provides some insight into the impact of improving traceability through real-time animal movement reporting and the use of electronic animal movement databases. The study concludes that the type of premises and uncertainty of the time of disease incursion will affect model accuracy and highlights the need for improvements in these areas.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, UK.
authors.forename: Thibaud
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Porphyre
authors.affiliation: School of Veterinary Medicine, Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
authors.forename: Lisa A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Boden
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology Research Unit, SRUC, Drummondhill, Stratherrick Road, Inverness, UK.
authors.forename: Carla
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Correia-Gomes
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology Research Unit, SRUC, Drummondhill, Stratherrick Road, Inverness, UK.
authors.forename: Harriet K
authors.initials: HK
authors.lastname: Auty
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology Research Unit, SRUC, Drummondhill, Stratherrick Road, Inverness, UK.
authors.forename: George J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Gunn
authors.affiliation: Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, UK.
authors.forename: Mark E J
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Woolhouse
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D016208:Databases, Factual; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D062486:Public Health Surveillance; D012606:Scotland / Q000453:epidemiology; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D035501:Uncertainty
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