title: Modelling carbon stocks and fluxes in the wood product sector: a comparative review.
abstract: In addition to forest ecosystems, wood products are carbon pools that can be strategically managed to mitigate climate change. Wood product models (WPMs) simulating the carbon balance of wood production, use and end of life can complement forest growth models to evaluate the mitigation potential of the forest sector as a whole. WPMs can be used to compare scenarios of product use and explore mitigation strategies. A considerable number of WPMs have been developed in the last three decades, but there is no review available analysing their functionality and performance. This study analyses and compares 41 WPMs. One surprising initial result was that we discovered the erroneous implementation of a few concepts and assumptions in some of the models. We further described and compared the models using six model characteristics (bucking allocation, industrial processes, carbon pools, product removal, recycling and substitution effects) and three model-use characteristics (system boundaries, model initialization and evaluation of results). Using a set of indicators based on the model characteristics, we classified models using a hierarchical clustering technique and differentiated them according to their increasing degrees of complexity and varying levels of user support. For purposes of simulating carbon stock in wood products, models with a simple structure may be sufficient, but to compare climate change mitigation options, complex models are needed. The number of models has increased substantially over the last ten years, introducing more diversity and accuracy. Calculation of substitution effects and recycling has also become more prominent. However, the lack of data is still an important constraint for a more realistic estimation of carbon stocks and fluxes. Therefore, if the sector wants to demonstrate the environmental quality of its products, it should make it a priority to provide reliable life cycle inventory data, particularly regarding aspects of time and location.
authors.affiliation: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany.|Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, University of Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E-2411, BE-3001, Leuven, Belgium.
authors.forename: Pau
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Brunet-Navarro
authors.affiliation: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374, Müncheberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Hubert
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Jochheim
authors.affiliation: Division Forest, Nature and Landscape, University of Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E-2411, BE-3001, Leuven, Belgium.
authors.forename: Bart
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Muys
mesh_terms: D002244:Carbon; D057486:Carbon Cycle; D057231:Climate Change; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D065928:Forests; D007221:Industry; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014934:Wood / Q000737:chemistry*
chemical_list: D002244:Carbon
keywords: carbon retention curve; carbon sequestration; cascading; climate change; first-order decay; half-life; low-carbon economy; mitigation; wood industry
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