title: Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for E. integriceps is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.
authors.affiliation: Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Rasha
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Aljaryian
authors.affiliation: Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Lalit
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kumar
authors.affiliation: Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Subhashni
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Taylor
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D005544:Forecasting; D020062:Heteroptera; D058865:Introduced Species / Q000639:trends*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011891:Rain; D013696:Temperature
keywords: CLIMEX; Eurygaster integriceps; climate change; sunn pest distribution