title: The relevance effect and conditionals.
abstract: More than a decade of research has found strong evidence for P(if A, then C)=P(C|A) ("the Equation"). We argue, however, that this hypothesis provides an overly simplified picture due to its inability to account for relevance. We manipulated relevance in the evaluation of the probability and acceptability of indicative conditionals and found that relevance moderates the effect of P(C|A). This corroborates the Default and Penalty Hypothesis put forward in this paper. Finally, the probability and acceptability of concessive conditionals ("Even if A, then still C") were investigated and it was found that the Equation provides a better account of concessive conditionals than of indicatives across relevance manipulations.
authors: Department of Philosophy, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany; Institut für Psychologie, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany. Electronic address: niels.skovgaard.olsen@psychologie.uni-freiburg.de.
authors: Niels
authors: N
authors: Skovgaard-Olsen
authors: Department of Psychology, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
authors: Henrik
authors: H
authors: Singmann
authors: Institut für Psychologie, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany.
authors: Karl Christoph
authors: KC
authors: Klauer
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015987:Effect Modifier, Epidemiologic; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D020407:Internet; D007600:Judgment; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011340:Problem Solving; D011897:Random Allocation; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Concessive conditionals; Indicative conditionals; Reasons; Relevance; The Equation; The New Paradigm