title: Demographic buffering and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of disease in a wildlife population.
abstract: Demographic buffering allows populations to persist by compensating for fluctuations in vital rates, including disease-induced mortality. Using long-term data on a badger (Meles meles Linnaeus, 1758) population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis, we built an integrated population model to quantify impacts of disease, density and environmental drivers on survival and recruitment. Badgers exhibit a slow life-history strategy, having high rates of adult survival with low variance, and low but variable rates of recruitment. Recruitment exhibited strong negative density-dependence, but was not influenced by disease, while adult survival was density independent but declined with increasing prevalence of diseased individuals. Given that reproductive success is not depressed by disease prevalence, density-dependent recruitment of cubs is likely to compensate for disease-induced mortality. This combination of slow life history and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of a naturally infected badger population and helps to explain the badger's role as a persistent reservoir of M. bovis.
authors: Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, TR10 9FE, UK.
authors: Jenni L
authors: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5050-750X
authors: JL
authors: McDonald
authors: College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, EX4 4QF, UK.
authors: Trevor
authors: T
authors: Bailey
authors: National Wildlife Management Centre, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodchester Park, Gloucestershire, GL10 3UJ, UK.
authors: Richard J
authors: RJ
authors: Delahay
authors: Environment and Sustainability Institute, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, TR10 9FE, UK.
authors: Robbie A
authors: RA
authors: McDonald
authors: National Wildlife Management Centre, Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodchester Park, Gloucestershire, GL10 3UJ, UK.
authors: Graham C
authors: GC
authors: Smith
authors: Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, TR10 9FE, UK.
authors: Dave J
authors: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4220-2076
authors: DJ
authors: Hodgson
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild / Q000382:microbiology*; D045969:Mustelidae / Q000382:microbiology*; D009163:Mycobacterium bovis / Q000502:physiology; D011156:Population Density; D015995:Prevalence; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality / Q000662:veterinary*
keywords: Badger; Bayesian; Integrated Population Model; Meles meles; bovine tuberculosis; demographic buffering; demography; density-dependence; life history; wildlife reservoir