title: Vulnerability of maize production under future climate change: possible adaptation strategies.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Climate change can affect the productivity and geographic distribution of crops. Therefore, evaluation of adaptive management options is crucial in dealing with negative impacts of climate change. The objectives of this study were to simulate the impacts of climate change on maize production in the north-east of Iran. Moreover, vulnerability index which indicated that how much of the crop yield loss is related to the drought was computed for each location to identify where adaptation and mitigation strategies are effective. Different sowing dates were also applied as an adaptation approach to decrease the negative impacts of climate change in study area.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The results showed that the maize yield would decline during the 21st century from -2.6% to -82% at all study locations in comparison with the baseline. The result of vulnerability index also indicated that using the adaptation strategies could be effective in all of the study areas. Using different sowing dates as an adaptation approach showed that delaying the sowing date will be advantageous in order to obtain higher yield in all study locations in future.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study provided insight regarding the climate change impacts on maize production and the efficacy of adaptation strategies. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.
authors: Department of Agronomy, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
authors: Mohammad
authors: M
authors: Bannayan
authors: Department of Agriculture, Islamic Azad University - Mashhad Branch, P.O. Box 91735-413, Mashhad, Iran.
authors: Parisa
authors: P
authors: Paymard
authors: Department of Irrigation Science, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
authors: Batool
authors: B
authors: Ashraf
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological / Q000528:radiation effects; D057231:Climate Change / Q000191:economics; D003198:Computer Simulation; D000069599:Crop Production / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000191:economics / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology* / Q000528:radiation effects; D003889:Desert Climate; D055864:Droughts / Q000191:economics; D035263:Flowering Tops / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology / Q000528:radiation effects; D005523:Food Supply / Q000191:economics; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007492:Iran; D008954:Models, Biological; D018515:Plant Leaves / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology / Q000528:radiation effects; D012621:Seasons; D012639:Seeds / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology* / Q000528:radiation effects; D013472:Sunlight; D003313:Zea mays / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology* / Q000528:radiation effects
keywords: DSSAT; LARS-WG; adaptation; maize; vulnerability index