title: Characterization of the Human Risk of Salmonellosis Related to Consumption of Pork Products in Different E.U. Countries Based on a QMRA.
abstract: In response to the European Food Safety Authority's wish to assess the reduction of human cases of salmonellosis by implementing control measures at different points in the farm-to-consumption chain for pork products, a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) was developed. The model simulated the occurrence of Salmonella from the farm to consumption of pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready-to-eat sausage, respectively, and a dose-response model was used to estimate the probability of illness at consumption. The QMRA has a generic structure with a defined set of variables, whose values are changed according to the E.U. member state (MS) of interest. In this article we demonstrate the use of the QMRA in four MSs, representing different types of countries. The predicted probability of illness from the QMRA was between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10 million per serving across all three product types. Fermented ready-to-eat sausage imposed the highest probability of illness per serving in all countries, whereas the risks per serving of minced meat and pork chops were similar within each MS. For each of the products, the risk varied by a factor of 100 between the four MSs. The influence of lack of information for different variables was assessed by rerunning the model with alternative, more extreme, values. Out of the large number of uncertain variables, only a few of them have a strong influence on the probability of illness, in particular those describing the preparation at home and consumption.
authors: Food-DTU - National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Søborg, Denmark.
authors: Håkan
authors: H
authors: Vigre
authors: Food-DTU - National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Søborg, Denmark.
authors: Kristen
authors: K
authors: Barfoed
authors: RIVM - Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors: Arno N
authors: AN
authors: Swart
authors: Epidemiology, Surveillance & Risk Group, Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, UK.
authors: Robin R L
authors: RR
authors: Simons
authors: Epidemiology, Surveillance & Risk Group, Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, UK.
authors: Andrew A
authors: AA
authors: Hill
authors: Epidemiology, Surveillance & Risk Group, Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, UK.
authors: Emma L
authors: EL
authors: Snary
authors: Food-DTU - National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Søborg, Denmark.
authors: Tine
authors: T
authors: Hald
mesh_terms: D000003:Abattoirs; D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005062:European Union; D000072480:Farms; D005506:Food Contamination / Q000032:analysis; D005511:Food Handling; D005516:Food Microbiology; D059022:Food Safety; D006801:Humans; D008461:Meat Products / Q000382:microbiology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011336:Probability; D000069466:Red Meat / Q000382:microbiology; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012475:Salmonella; D012478:Salmonella Food Poisoning; D012481:Salmonella Infections, Animal / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000635:transmission*; D013552:Swine
keywords: QMRA; Salmonella in pork; risk characterization; uncertainty analysis