title: Spatial variability versus parameter uncertainty in freshwater fate and exposure factors of chemicals.
abstract: We compared the influence of spatial variability in environmental characteristics and the uncertainty in measured substance properties of seven chemicals on freshwater fate factors (FFs), representing the residence time in the freshwater environment, and on exposure factors (XFs), representing the dissolved fraction of a chemical. The influence of spatial variability was quantified using the SimpleBox model in which Europe was divided in 100 × 100 km regions, nested in a regional (300 × 300 km) and supra-regional (500 × 500 km) scale. Uncertainty in substance properties was quantified by means of probabilistic modelling. Spatial variability and parameter uncertainty were expressed by the ratio k of the 95%ile and 5%ile of the FF and XF. Our analysis shows that spatial variability ranges in FFs of persistent chemicals that partition predominantly into one environmental compartment was up to 2 orders of magnitude larger compared to uncertainty. For the other (less persistent) chemicals, uncertainty in the FF was up to 1 order of magnitude larger than spatial variability. Variability and uncertainty in freshwater XFs of the seven chemicals was negligible (k < 1.5). We found that, depending on the chemical and emission scenario, accounting for region-specific environmental characteristics in multimedia fate modelling, as well as accounting for parameter uncertainty, can have a significant influence on freshwater fate factor predictions. Therefore, we conclude that it is important that fate factors should not only account for parameter uncertainty, but for spatial variability as well, as this further increases the reliability of ecotoxicological impacts in LCA.
authors: Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9010, 6500, GL, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
authors: Carl O P
authors: CO
authors: Nijhof
authors: Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9010, 6500, GL, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
authors: Mark A J
authors: MA
authors: Huijbregts
authors: Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9010, 6500, GL, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
authors: Laura
authors: L
authors: Golsteijn
authors: Department of Environmental Science, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9010, 6500, GL, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. Electronic address: r.vanzelm@science.ru.nl.
authors: Rosalie
authors: R
authors: van Zelm
mesh_terms: D004777:Environment; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005060:Europe; D005618:Fresh Water / Q000737:chemistry; D008956:Models, Chemical; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D035501:Uncertainty; D014877:Water Pollution, Chemical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
keywords: Environmental partitioning; European regions; Landscape parameters; Multimedia fate modelling; Statistical uncertainty