title: Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.
abstract: Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.
authors: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
authors: Yuanyuan
authors: Y
authors: Yin
authors: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
authors: Qiuhong
authors: Q
authors: Tang
authors: Department of Earth Sciences, Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI), Indianapolis IN 46202, USA.
authors: Lixin
authors: L
authors: Wang
authors: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
authors: Xingcai
authors: X
authors: Liu
mesh_terms: D057486:Carbon Cycle; D002681:China; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D005843:Geography; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012307:Risk Factors; D035501:Uncertainty