title: Prevalence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Yiyuan County, China, 2005-2014.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is highly endemic in mainland China, where human cases account for 90 % of the total global cases. Yiyuan County is one of the most serious affected areas in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting HFRS incidence in Yiyuan to make the control of HFRS more effective.
  
  
  METHODS
  The study was based on the reported cases of HFRS from the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. The demographic and spatial distributions of HFRS in Yiyuan were established. Then we fit autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and predict the HFRS epidemic trend.
  
  
  RESULTS
  There were 362 cases reported in Yiyuan during the 10-year study period. The human infections in the fall and winter reflected a seasonal characteristic pattern of Hantaan virus (HTNV) transmission. The best model was ARIMA (2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1)12 (AIC value 516.86) with a high validity.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The ARIMA model fits the fluctuations in HFRS frequency and it can be used for future forecasting when applied to HFRS prevention and control.
authors: Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, Shandong Province, P. R. China.
authors: Tao
authors: T
authors: Wang
authors: Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, Shandong Province, P. R. China.
authors: Jie
authors: J
authors: Liu
authors: Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, Shandong Province, P. R. China.
authors: Yunping
authors: Y
authors: Zhou
authors: Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, Shandong Province, P. R. China.
authors: Feng
authors: F
authors: Cui
authors: Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, Shandong Province, P. R. China.
authors: Zhenshui
authors: Z
authors: Huang
authors: Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, Shandong Province, P. R. China. lucywl120@sina.com.
authors: Ling
authors: L
authors: Wang
authors: Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, Shandong Province, P. R. China. zibocdc@163.com.
authors: Shenyong
authors: S
authors: Zhai
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D058872:Epidemics; D005260:Female; D018063:Hantaan virus / Q000302:isolation & purification; D006480:Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D012621:Seasons; D055815:Young Adult