title: Predictive Mortality Index for Community-Dwelling Elderly Koreans.
abstract: There are very few predictive indexes for long-term mortality among community-dwelling elderly Asian individuals, despite its importance, given the rapid and continuous increase in this population. We aimed to develop 10-year predictive mortality indexes for community-dwelling elderly Korean men and women based on routinely collected clinical data.We used data from 2244 elderly individuals (older than 60 years of age) from the southwest Seoul Study, a prospective cohort study, for the development of a prognostic index. An independent longitudinal cohort of 679 elderly participants was selected from the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study in Ansan City for validation.During a 10-year follow-up, 393 participants (17.5%) from the development cohort died. Nine risk factors were identified and weighed in the Cox proportional regression model to create a point scoring system: age, male sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, triglyceride, total cholesterol, white blood cell count, and hemoglobin. In the development cohort, the 10-year mortality risk was 6.6%, 14.8%, 18.2%, and 38.4% among subjects with 1 to 4, 5 to 7, 8 to 9, and ≥10 points, respectively. In the validation cohort, the 10-year mortality risk was 5.2%, 12.0%, 16.0%, and 16.0% according to these categories. The C-statistic for the point system was 0.73 and 0.67 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively.The present study provides valuable information for prognosis among elderly Koreans and may guide individualized approaches for appropriate care in a rapidly aging society.
authors: From the Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul (NHK, HJC, JHS, HJL, JHY, HSC, HJY, JAS, SGK, SHB, DSC, KMC); Division of Epidemiology and Health Index, Center for Genome Science, Korea National Institute of Health, Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Cheongju (SK); Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, Korea (CS).
authors: Nan H
authors: NH
authors: Kim
authors: Hyun J
authors: HJ
authors: Cho
authors: Soriul
authors: S
authors: Kim
authors: Ji H
authors: JH
authors: Seo
authors: Hyun J
authors: HJ
authors: Lee
authors: Ji H
authors: JH
authors: Yu
authors: Hye S
authors: HS
authors: Chung
authors: Hye J
authors: HJ
authors: Yoo
authors: Ji A
authors: JA
authors: Seo
authors: Sin Gon
authors: SG
authors: Kim
authors: Sei Hyun
authors: SH
authors: Baik
authors: Dong Seop
authors: DS
authors: Choi
authors: Chol
authors: C
authors: Shin
authors: Kyung Mook
authors: KM
authors: Choi
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D057187:Independent Living; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D056910:Republic of Korea; D018570:Risk Assessment