title: Detecting and modelling delayed density-dependence in abundance time series of a small mammal (Didelphis aurita).
abstract: We study the population size time series of a Neotropical small mammal with the intent of detecting and modelling population regulation processes generated by density-dependent factors and their possible delayed effects. The application of analysis tools based on principles of statistical generality are nowadays a common practice for describing these phenomena, but, in general, they are more capable of generating clear diagnosis rather than granting valuable modelling. For this reason, in our approach, we detect the principal temporal structures on the bases of different correlation measures, and from these results we build an ad-hoc minimalist autoregressive model that incorporates the main drivers of the dynamics. Surprisingly our model is capable of reproducing very well the time patterns of the empirical series and, for the first time, clearly outlines the importance of the time of attaining sexual maturity as a central temporal scale for the dynamics of this species. In fact, an important advantage of this analysis scheme is that all the model parameters are directly biologically interpretable and potentially measurable, allowing a consistency check between model outputs and independent measurements.
authors: Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Av. Athos da Silveira Ramos, 149, Cidade Universitária, 21941-972, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
authors: E
authors: E
authors: Brigatti
authors: Laboratório de Vertebrados, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Caixa Postal 68020, 21941-590, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
authors: M V
authors: MV
authors: Vieira
authors: Laboratório de Ecologia de Mamíferos, Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biologia Roberto Alcantara Gomes, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Campus Maracanã, 20550-900, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Kajin
authors: Coordenação de Matemática Aplicada, Laboratório Nacional de Computação Científica, 25651-075, Petrópolis, RJ, Brasil.
authors: P J A L
authors: PJ
authors: Almeida
authors: Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia de Sistemas Complexos, 22290-180, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.|Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Campus da Praia Vermelha, 24210-340, Niterói, RJ, Brasil.
authors: M A
authors: MA
authors: de Menezes
authors: Laboratório de Vertebrados, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Caixa Postal 68020, 21941-590, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
authors: R
authors: R
authors: Cerqueira
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001938:Brazil; D048293:Didelphis / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012098:Reproduction / Q000502:physiology*; D012741:Sexual Maturation / Q000502:physiology*