title: Health Impact Assessment for Second-Hand Smoke Exposure in Germany--Quantifying Estimates for Ischaemic Heart Diseases, COPD, and Stroke.
abstract: Evidence of the adverse health effects attributable to second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure is available. This study aims to quantify the impact of SHS exposure on ischaemic heart diseases (IHD), chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), and stroke in Germany. Therefore, this study estimated and forecasted the morbidity for the three outcomes in the German population. Furthermore, a health impact assessment was performed using DYNAMO-HIA, which is a generic software tool applying a Markov model. Overall 687,254 IHD cases, 231,973 COPD cases, and 288,015 stroke cases were estimated to be attributable to SHS exposure in Germany for 2014. Under the assumption that the population prevalence of these diseases and the prevalence of SHS exposure remain constant, the total number of cases will increase due to demographic aging. Assuming a total eradication of SHS exposure beginning in 2014 leads to an estimated reduction of 50% in cases, compared to the reference scenario in 2040 for all three diseases. The results highlight the relevance of SHS exposure because it affects several chronic disease conditions and has a major impact on the population's health. Therefore, public health campaigns to protect non-smokers are urgently needed.
authors: Department of Public Health Medicine, School of Public Health, Bielefeld University, 33615 Bielefeld, Germany. f.fischer@uni-bielefeld.de.
authors: Florian
authors: F
authors: Fischer
authors: Department of Public Health Medicine, School of Public Health, Bielefeld University, 33615 Bielefeld, Germany. alexander.kraemer@uni-bielefeld.de.
authors: Alexander
authors: A
authors: Kraemer
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D005858:Germany; D062489:Health Impact Assessment; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008875:Middle Aged; D017202:Myocardial Ischemia / Q000139:chemically induced* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000139:chemically induced* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D020521:Stroke / Q000139:chemically induced* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D014028:Tobacco Smoke Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects*; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D014028:Tobacco Smoke Pollution
keywords: COPD; Health Impact Assessment; environmental epidemiology; ischaemic heart diseases; second-hand smoke; stroke