title: Early signs of range disjunction of submountainous plant species: an unexplored consequence of future and contemporary climate changes.
abstract: Poleward and upward species range shifts are the most commonly anticipated and studied consequences of climate warming. However, these global responses to climate change obscure more complex distribution change patterns. We hypothesize that the spatial arrangement of mountain ranges and, consequently, climatic gradients in Europe, will result in range disjunctions. This hypothesis was investigated for submountainous forest plant species at two temporal and spatial scales: (i) under future climate change (between 1950-2000 and 2061-2080 periods) at the European scale and (ii) under contemporary climate change (between 1914-1987 and 1997-2013 periods) at the French scale. We selected 97 submountainous forest plant species occurring in France, among which distribution data across Europe are available for 25 species. By projecting future distribution changes for the 25 submountainous plant species across Europe, we demonstrated that range disjunction is a likely consequence of future climate change. To assess whether it is already taking place, we used a large forest vegetation-plot database covering the entire French territory over 100 years (1914-2013) and found an average decrease in frequency (-0.01 ± 0.004) in lowland areas for the 97 submountainous species - corresponding to a loss of 6% of their historical frequency - along with southward and upward range shifts, suggesting early signs of range disjunctions. Climate-induced range disjunctions should be considered more carefully since they could have dramatic consequences on population genetics and the ability of species to face future climate changes.
authors: AgroParisTech, UMR 1092, Laboratoire d'Étude des ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), 54042, Nancy, France.|INRA, UMR 1092, Laboratoire d'Étude des ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), 54280, Champenoux, France.
authors: Emilien
authors: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8371-1630
authors: E
authors: Kuhn
authors: Unité de Recherche 'Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés' (EDYSAN, FRE3498 CNRS-UPJV), Université de Picardie Jules Verne, 80037, Amiens, France.
authors: Jonathan
authors: J
authors: Lenoir
authors: AgroParisTech, UMR 1092, Laboratoire d'Étude des ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), 54042, Nancy, France.|INRA, UMR 1092, Laboratoire d'Étude des ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), 54280, Champenoux, France.
authors: Christian
authors: C
authors: Piedallu
authors: AgroParisTech, UMR 1092, Laboratoire d'Étude des ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), 54042, Nancy, France.|INRA, UMR 1092, Laboratoire d'Étude des ressources Forêt-Bois (LERFoB), 54280, Champenoux, France.
authors: Jean-Claude
authors: JC
authors: Gégout
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D065928:Forests; D005602:France; D008954:Models, Biological; D010944:Plants / Q000145:classification*; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis
keywords: evolution; global warming; population; range margin; range shift; species distribution modelling; species frequency; vegetation