title: Predictors of Virological Response in 3,235 Chronic HCV Egyptian Patients Treated with Peginterferon Alpha-2a Compared with Peginterferon Alpha-2b Using Statistical Methods and Data Mining Techniques.
abstract: Despite the appearance of new oral antiviral drugs, pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN)/RBV may remain the standard of care therapy for some time, and several viral and host factors are reported to be correlated with therapeutic effects. This study aimed to reveal the independent variables associated with failure of sustained virological response (SVR) to PEG-IFN alpha-2a versus PEG-IFN alpha-2b in treatment of naive chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) Egyptian patients using both statistical methods and data mining techniques. This retrospective cohort study included 3,235 chronic hepatitis C patients enrolled in a large Egyptian medical center: 1,728 patients had been treated with PEG-IFN alpha-2a plus ribavirin (RBV) and 1,507 patients with PEG-IFN alpha-2b plus RBV between 2007 and 2011. Both multivariate analysis and Reduced Error Pruning Tree (REPTree)-based model were used to reveal the independent variables associated with treatment response. In both treatment types, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) >10 ng/mL and HCV viremia >600 × 10(3) IU/mL were the independent baseline variables associated with failure of SVR, while male gender, decreased hemoglobin, and thyroid-stimulating hormone were the independent variables associated with good response (P < 0.05). Using REPTree-based model showed that low AFP was the factor of initial split (best predictor) of response for either PEG-IFN alpha-2a or PEG-IFN alpha-2b (cutoff value 8.53, 4.89 ng/mL, AUROC = 0.68 and 0.61, P = 0.05). Serum AFP >10 ng/mL and viral load >600 × 10(3) IU/mL are variables associated with failure of response in both treatment types. REPTree-based model could be used to assess predictors of response.
authors: 1 Department of Endemic Medicine and Hepatology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University , Cairo, Egypt .
authors: Maissa
authors: M
authors: El Raziky
authors: 1 Department of Endemic Medicine and Hepatology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University , Cairo, Egypt .
authors: Waleed Fouad
authors: WF
authors: Fathalah
authors: 1 Department of Endemic Medicine and Hepatology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University , Cairo, Egypt .
authors: Zeinab
authors: Z
authors: Zakaria
authors: 1 Department of Endemic Medicine and Hepatology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University , Cairo, Egypt .
authors: Hadeel Gamal
authors: HG
authors: Eldeen
authors: 1 Department of Endemic Medicine and Hepatology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University , Cairo, Egypt .
authors: Amr
authors: A
authors: Abul-Fotouh
authors: 1 Department of Endemic Medicine and Hepatology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University , Cairo, Egypt .
authors: Ahmed
authors: A
authors: Salama
authors: 2 Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Computers and Information, Cairo University , Cairo, Egypt .
authors: Abubakr
authors: A
authors: Awad
authors: 1 Department of Endemic Medicine and Hepatology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University , Cairo, Egypt .
authors: Gamal
authors: G
authors: Esmat
authors: 1 Department of Endemic Medicine and Hepatology, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University , Cairo, Egypt .
authors: Mahasen
authors: M
authors: Mabrouk
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D057225:Data Mining; D004534:Egypt; D005260:Female; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000188:drug therapy*; D006801:Humans; D007279:Injections, Subcutaneous; D000077190:Interferon alpha-2; D016898:Interferon-alpha / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011092:Polyethylene Glycols / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D011994:Recombinant Proteins / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000627:therapeutic use; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D000077190:Interferon alpha-2; D016898:Interferon-alpha; D011994:Recombinant Proteins; D011092:Polyethylene Glycols; C417083:peginterferon alfa-2b; C100416:peginterferon alfa-2a