title: [Short term effect of weather patterns on the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease aged ≤5 years old in Jinan city].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To investigate the effect of weather patterns on the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Jinan.
  
  
  METHODS
  HFMD confirmed cases aged ≤5 years old for the period of 2012-2014 were collected from National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS). Simultaneous meteorological data, including daily average temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind velocity, rainfall and duration of sunshine were obtained from the website of Jinan meteorological bureau. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to identify the relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the study period, a total of 40 405 HFMD cases aged ≤5 years old were reported. The incident peak occurred from May to July, a total of 22 254 cases were reported during this period, which accounted for 55.08% of whole cases. After adjusting by "year", each 1 °C rise of weekly average temperature corresponded to an increase of 6.70% (95%CI:6.35% to 7.06%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a 1 kPa rise of weekly average atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 44.77% (95%CI: -46.23% to -41.91%). Likewise, a one percent rise in weekly average relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.96% (95%CI: 1.84% to 2.09%), a 1 m/h rise in weekly average wind velocity corresponded to an increase of 16.63% (95% CI:14.08% to 19.25%), a hour add in weekly duration of sunshine corresponded to a decrease of 0.82% (95% CI : -0.93% to -0.72%), in the weekly number of HFMD cases.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Weather factors including temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, wind velocity, and duration of sunshine had a significant influence on occurrence and transmission of HFMD in Jinan city.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.
authors.forename: Yunqing
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China.
authors.forename: Xingyi
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Geng
authors.forename: Xiaoxue
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Weiru
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Email: zhangji1967@163.com.
authors.forename: Ji
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D006232:Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D013696:Temperature; D014887:Weather