title: Worldwide Alien Invasion: A Methodological Approach to Forecast the Potential Spread of a Highly Invasive Pollinator.
abstract: The ecological impacts of alien species invasion are a major threat to global biodiversity. The increasing number of invasion events by alien species and the high cost and difficulty of eradicating invasive species once established require the development of new methods and tools for predicting the most susceptible areas to invasion. Invasive pollinators pose serious threats to biodiversity and human activity due to their close relationship with many plants (including crop species) and high potential competitiveness for resources with native pollinators. Although at an early stage of expansion, the bumblebee species Bombus terrestris is becoming a representative case of pollinator invasion at a global scale, particularly given its high velocity of invasive spread and the increasing number of reports of its impacts on native bees and crops in many countries. We present here a methodological framework of habitat suitability modeling that integrates new approaches for detecting habitats that are susceptible to Bombus terrestris invasion at a global scale. Our approach did not include reported invaded locations in the modeling procedure; instead, those locations were used exclusively to evaluate the accuracy of the models in predicting suitability over regions already invaded. Moreover, a new and more intuitive approach was developed to select the models and evaluate different algorithms based on their performance and predictive convergence. Finally, we present a comprehensive global map of susceptibility to Bombus terrestris invasion that highlights priority areas for monitoring.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão, travessa 14, n. 321, 05508-090, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.|Research Center on Biodiversity and Computing-BioComp, Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, travessa 3, n.158, 05508-900, São Paulo Capital, São Paulo State, Brazil.
authors.forename: André L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Acosta
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão, travessa 14, n. 321, 05508-090, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.|Vale Institute of Technology-Sustainable Development, Rua Boaventura da Silva, n. 955, 66055-090, Belém, Pará, Brazil.|Research Center on Biodiversity and Computing-BioComp, Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, travessa 3, n.158, 05508-900, São Paulo Capital, São Paulo State, Brazil.
authors.forename: Tereza C
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Giannini
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology, Bioscience Institute, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão, travessa 14, n. 321, 05508-090, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.|Vale Institute of Technology-Sustainable Development, Rua Boaventura da Silva, n. 955, 66055-090, Belém, Pará, Brazil.|Research Center on Biodiversity and Computing-BioComp, Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, travessa 3, n.158, 05508-900, São Paulo Capital, São Paulo State, Brazil.
authors.forename: Vera L
authors.initials: VL
authors.lastname: Imperatriz-Fonseca
authors.affiliation: Department of Computing and Digital Systems Engineering, Polytechnic School, Universidade de São Paulo, Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, n. 380, 05508-970, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.|Research Center on Biodiversity and Computing-BioComp, Av. Prof. Luciano Gualberto, travessa 3, n.158, 05508-900, São Paulo Capital, São Paulo State, Brazil.
authors.forename: Antonio M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Saraiva
mesh_terms: D063147:Animal Distribution / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D001516:Bees / Q000502:physiology*; D002980:Climate; D003163:Competitive Behavior / Q000502:physiology*; D005060:Europe; D058865:Introduced Species; D007564:Japan; D007843:Latin America; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009520:New Zealand; D058974:Phylogeography; D054817:Pollination / Q000502:physiology*