title: Modelling populations of Lygus hesperus on cotton fields in the San Joaquin Valley of California: the importance of statistical and mathematical model choice.
abstract: Understanding the population dynamics of herbivorous insects is critical to developing and implementing effective pest control protocols. In the context of inverse problems, we explore the dynamic effects of pesticide treatments on Lygus hesperus, a common pest of cotton in the western United States. Fitting models to field data, we explore the topic of model selection for an appropriate mathematical model and corresponding statistical models, and use techniques including ANOVA-based model comparison tests and residual plot analysis to make the best selections. In addition we explore the topic of data information content: in this example, we are testing the question of whether data, as it is currently collected, can support time-dependent parameter estimation. Furthermore, we investigate the statistical assumptions often haphazardly made in the process of parameter estimation and consider the implications of unfounded assumptions.
authors.affiliation: a Center for Research in Scientific Computation , North Carolina State University , Raleigh , NC , USA.
authors.forename: H T
authors.initials: HT
authors.lastname: Banks
authors.affiliation: b Department of Environmental Science, Division of Sciences and Mathematics (SAM) , University of Washington , Tacoma , WA , USA.
authors.forename: J E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Banks
authors.affiliation: c Department of Entomology and Nematology, Center for Population Biology , University of California , Davis , CA , USA.
authors.forename: Jay
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rosenheim
authors.affiliation: d Center for Research in Scientific Computation , North Carolina State University , Raleigh , NC , USA.
authors.forename: Kristen
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Tillman
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002140:California; D020062:Heteroptera / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D010575:Pesticides; D011157:Population Dynamics
chemical_list: D010575:Pesticides
keywords: Inverse problem; bootstrapping; generalized least squares; hemiptera; herbivory; information content; linear splines; model selection; ordinary least squares; pest suppression; pesticide; residual plots