title: A new risk-scoring model for predicting 30-day mortality after repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms in the era of endovascular procedures.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To propose a new, multivariable risk-scoring model for predicting 30-day mortality in individuals underwent repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA).
  
  
  METHODS
  Four hundred eighty-five consecutive patients who underwent AAA repair from January 2000 to December 2010 were included in the study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the risk factors, and a risk-scoring model was developed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Multivariate analysis identified three independent preoperative risk factors associated with mortality, and a risk-scoring model was created by assigning an equal value to each factor. The independent predictors were location of the AAA, rupture of AAA, and preoperative pulmonary dysfunction. The multivariable regression model demonstrated moderate discrimination (c statistic, 0.811) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.793). The observed mortality rate did not differ significantly from that predicted by our risk-scoring model.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our risk-scoring model has excellent ability to predict 30-day mortality after AAA repair, and awaits validation in further studies.
authors.affiliation: Department of Trauma and Vascular Surgery, The Catholic University of Korea, Uijeongbu St. Mary's Hospital, Uijeongbu, Korea.
authors.forename: Jihoon T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Biostatistics Collaboration Unit, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Min-Ju
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Youngjin
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Han
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Ji Yoon
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Choi
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Gi-Young
authors.initials: GY
authors.lastname: Ko
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Tae-Won
authors.initials: TW
authors.lastname: Kwon
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Yong-Pil
authors.initials: YP
authors.lastname: Cho
keywords: Abdominal aortic aneurysm; Operative surgical procedures; Risk; Treatment outcome