title: Impact of interventions to reduce Alzheimer's disease pathology on the prevalence of dementia in the oldest-old.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The number of persons aged >90 years will grow significantly in coming decades. This group has the highest rates of dementia, most commonly Alzheimer's disease (AD).
  
  
  METHODS
  Using The 90+ Study, we developed a statistical model for dementia risk based on brain pathologies. Intervention scenarios which reduce or eliminate AD pathology were considered, and the numbers of dementia cases among the U.S. oldest-old that could be prevented were estimated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The U.S. dementia prevalence among the oldest-old will increase from 1.35 million in 2015 to 4.72 million in 2050. If interventions eliminate AD pathology, dementia prevalence would be reduced by approximately 50%, averting nearly 2.4 million cases in 2050. However, large numbers of dementia cases would still remain.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Reducing AD pathology would significantly decrease the public health burden of dementia. However, other interventions are needed to address the burden associated with other dementing pathologies prevalent in the oldest-old.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA. Electronic address: rbrookmeyer@ucla.edu.
authors.forename: Ron
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Brookmeyer
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Department of Neurobiology and Behavior, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Institute for Memory Impairments and Neurological Disorders, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Claudia H
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Kawas
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Nada
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Abdallah
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Annlia
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Paganini-Hill
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathology, University of California, Irvine Medical Center, Orange, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Ronald C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Institute for Memory Impairments and Neurological Disorders, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
authors.forename: María M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Corrada
mesh_terms: D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging / Q000473:pathology*; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology*; D003704:Dementia / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D016017:Odds Ratio; D015995:Prevalence; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Alzheimer's disease; Dementia; Intervention; Oldest-old; Pathology; Prediction; Prevalence; Prevention