title: Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse).
abstract: The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations.
authors.affiliation: Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors.forename: Kamil
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Erguler
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EA, United Kingdom.|Sainsbury Laboratory, University of Cambridge, Bateman Street, Cambridge, CB2 1LR, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Stephanie E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Smith-Unna
authors.affiliation: Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus.|Department of Life Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Joanna
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Waldock
authors.affiliation: Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors.forename: Yiannis
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Proestos
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom.|Computation-based Science and Technology Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors.forename: George K
authors.initials: GK
authors.lastname: Christophides
authors.affiliation: Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, The Cyprus Institute, 2121 Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus.|Department of Atmospheric Chemistry, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, D-55128 Mainz, Germany.
authors.forename: Jos
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lelieveld
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health and Policy, Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, United Kingdom.|Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St. Mary's campus, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Paul E
authors.initials: PE
authors.lastname: Parham
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000502:physiology* / Q000821:virology; D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D065632:Chikungunya Fever / Q000635:transmission; D002646:Chikungunya virus / Q000502:physiology; D002980:Climate; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003715:Dengue / Q000635:transmission; D003716:Dengue Virus / Q000502:physiology; D064666:Diapause, Insect; D017753:Ecosystem; D005060:Europe; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000502:physiology* / Q000821:virology; D008877:Middle East; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013696:Temperature