title: The HIV Cure Research Agenda: The Role of Mathematical Modelling and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.
abstract: The research agenda towards an HIV cure is building rapidly. In this article, we discuss the reasons for and methodological approach to using mathematical modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis in this agenda. We provide a brief description of the proof of concept for cure and the current directions of cure research. We then review the types of clinical economic evaluations, including cost analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and cost-effectiveness analysis. We describe the use of mathematical modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis early in the HIV epidemic as well as in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy. We then highlight the novel methodology of Value of Information analysis and its potential role in the planning of clinical trials. We close with recommendations for modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis in the HIV cure agenda.
authors.affiliation: Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Disease, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard University Center for AIDS Research, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Kenneth A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Freedberg
authors.affiliation: Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases and Bio-Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
authors.forename: Cristina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Possas
authors.affiliation: University of California San Francisco Department of Medicine, San Francisco General Hospital, San Francisco, CA, USA; Office of AIDS Research, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; American Society for Clinical Investigation, Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Deeks
authors.affiliation: International and Scientific Relations Office, ANRS, Paris, France; International AIDS Society, Geneva, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Anna Laura
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Ross
authors.affiliation: Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Disease, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Katherine L
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Rosettie
authors.affiliation: Division of Clinical Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, The National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD, USA.
authors.forename: Michele
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Di Mascio
authors.affiliation: Community Mobilization Division, Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), Geneva, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Collins
authors.affiliation: Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Disease, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard University Center for AIDS Research, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Infectious Disease, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Rochelle P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Walensky
authors.affiliation: INSERM, IAME, UMR 1137, F-75018 Paris, France; Université Paris Diderot, IAME, UMR 1137, Sorbonne Paris Cité, F-75018 Paris, France; AP-HP, Hôpital Bichat, Services de Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, F-75018 Paris, France.
authors.forename: Yazdan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yazdanpanah
keywords: HIV/AIDS; cost-effectiveness; cure; mathematical modeling