title: Improving marine disease surveillance through sea temperature monitoring, outlooks and projections.
abstract: To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host-pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 12 °C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 12 °C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA Laboratoire d'Excellence "CORAIL" USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE, CRIOBE, Papetoai, Moorea, Polynésie Française maynardmarine@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Jeffrey
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Maynard
authors.affiliation: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
authors.forename: Ruben
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: van Hooidonk
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
authors.forename: C Drew
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Harvell
authors.affiliation: NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NOAA Coral Reef Watch, 5830 University Research Center, E/RA3, College Park, MD 20740, USA.
authors.forename: C Mark
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Eakin
authors.affiliation: NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NOAA Coral Reef Watch, 5830 University Research Center, E/RA3, College Park, MD 20740, USA.
authors.forename: Gang
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Bette L
authors.initials: BL
authors.lastname: Willis
authors.affiliation: School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Anglesey LL59 5AB, UK.
authors.forename: Gareth J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.affiliation: Centre for Veterinary Epidemiological Research, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, Canada C1A 4P3.
authors.forename: Maya L
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3381-6415
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Groner
authors.affiliation: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Dobson
authors.affiliation: NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NOAA Coral Reef Watch, 5830 University Research Center, E/RA3, College Park, MD 20740, USA Marine Geophysical Laboratory, Physics Department, College of Science, Technology and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4814, Australia.
authors.forename: Scott F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Heron
authors.affiliation: Energy and Environmental Affairs, Division of Marine Fisheries, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, 30 Emerson Avenue, Gloucester, MA 01931, USA.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Glenn
authors.affiliation: Department of Marine Resources, Maine, 21 State House Station, Augusta, ME 04333, USA.
authors.forename: Kathleen
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Reardon
authors.affiliation: College of William and Mary, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA 23062, USA.
authors.forename: Jeffrey D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Shields
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001267:Atlantic Ocean; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005398:Fisheries; D005544:Forecasting; D054884:Host-Pathogen Interactions; D008281:Maine; D008121:Nephropidae / Q000382:microbiology*; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Homarus americanus; climate change; epizootic shell disease; marine disease; predictive tools; resource management