title: Estimating the Time to Benefit for Preventive Drugs with the Statistical Process Control Method: An Example with Alendronate.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  For physicians dealing with patients with a limited life expectancy, knowing the time to benefit (TTB) of preventive medication is essential to support treatment decisions.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of statistical process control (SPC) for determining the TTB in relation to fracture risk with alendronate versus placebo in postmenopausal women.
  
  
  METHODS
  We performed a post hoc analysis of the Fracture Intervention Trial (FIT), a randomized, controlled trial that investigated the effect of alendronate versus placebo on fracture risk in postmenopausal women. We used SPC, a statistical method used for monitoring processes for quality control, to determine if and when the intervention group benefited significantly more than the control group. SPC discriminated between the normal variations over time in the numbers of fractures in both groups and the variations that were attributable to alendronate. The TTB was defined as the time point from which the cumulative difference in the number of clinical fractures remained greater than the upper control limit on the SPC chart.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For the total group, the TTB was defined as 11 months. For patients aged ≥70 years, the TTB was 8 months [absolute risk reduction (ARR) = 1.4%]; for patients aged <70 years, it was 19 months (ARR = 0.7%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  SPC is a clear and understandable graphical method to determine the TTB. Its main advantage is that there is no need to define a prespecified time point, as is the case in traditional survival analyses. Prescribing alendronate to patients who are aged ≥70 years is useful because the TTB shows that they will benefit after 8 months. Investigators should report the TTB to simplify clinical decision making.
authors.affiliation: Geriatrics Section, Department of Internal Medicine, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. emmvandeglind@gmail.com.|Dutch Cochrane Centre, University Medical Center, Utrecht, The Netherlands. emmvandeglind@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Esther M M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: van de Glind
authors.affiliation: Geriatrics Section, Department of Internal Medicine, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Hanna C
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Willems
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Informatics, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.|Pharmaceutical Research Center, School of Pharmacy, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
authors.forename: Saeid
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Eslami
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Informatics, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Ameen
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Abu-Hanna
authors.affiliation: Department of Rheumatology, VU Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Willem F
authors.initials: WF
authors.lastname: Lems
authors.affiliation: Dutch Cochrane Centre, University Medical Center, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Lotty
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hooft
authors.affiliation: Geriatrics Section, Department of Internal Medicine, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.|University Center for Geriatric Medicine, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Sophia E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: de Rooij
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Dennis M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Black
authors.affiliation: Geriatrics Section, Department of Internal Medicine, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.|Department of Geriatric Medicine, Gelre Hospitals, Apeldoorn, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Barbara C
authors.initials: BC
authors.lastname: van Munster
mesh_terms: D019386:Alendronate / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D015519:Bone Density; D005260:Female; D050723:Fractures, Bone / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D015663:Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal / Q000188:drug therapy*; D012306:Risk; D016103:Spinal Fractures / Q000517:prevention & control; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D019386:Alendronate