title: Negative global phosphorus budgets challenge sustainable intensification of grasslands.
abstract: Grasslands provide grass and fodder to sustain the growing need for ruminant meat and milk. Soil nutrients in grasslands are removed through withdrawal in these livestock products and through animal manure that originates from grasslands and is spread in croplands. This leads to loss of soil fertility, because globally most grasslands receive no mineral fertilizer. Here we show that phosphorus (P) inputs (mineral and organic) in global grasslands will have to increase more than fourfold in 2050 relative to 2005 to achieve an anticipated 80% increase in grass production (for milk and meat), while maintaining the soil P status. Combined with requirements for cropland, we estimate that mineral P fertilizer use must double by 2050 to sustain future crop and grassland production. Our findings point to the need to better understand the role of grasslands and their soil P status and their importance for global food security.
authors.affiliation: Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: S Z
authors.initials: SZ
authors.lastname: Sattari
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences-Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80021, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands.|PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: A F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Bouwman
authors.affiliation: Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands.|Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Livestock Information, Sector Analysis and Policy branch (AGAL), Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Martinez Rodríguez
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences-Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80021, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands.|PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: A H W
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: Beusen
authors.affiliation: Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: M K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: van Ittersum
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D005308:Fertilizers / Q000032:analysis; D065948:Grassland; D058751:Livestock / Q000502:physiology; D010758:Phosphorus / Q000032:analysis*; D012987:Soil / Q000737:chemistry*
chemical_list: D005308:Fertilizers; D012987:Soil; D010758:Phosphorus