title: The Economic Impact of Eradicating Peste des Petits Ruminants: A Benefit-Cost Analysis.
abstract: Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important cause of mortality and production loss among sheep and goats in the developing world. Despite control efforts in a number of countries, it has continued to spread across Africa and Asia, placing an increasing burden on the livelihoods of livestock keepers and on veterinary resources in affected countries. Given the similarities between PPR and rinderpest, and the lessons learned from the successful global eradication of rinderpest, the eradication of PPR seems appealing, both eliminating an important disease and improving the livelihoods of the poor in developing countries. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to examine the economic returns from a proposed programme for the global eradication of PPR. Based on our knowledge and experience, we developed the eradication strategy and estimated its costs. The benefits of the programme were determined from (i) the averted mortality costs, based on an analysis of the literature, (ii) the downstream impact of reduced mortality using a social accounting matrix, and (iii) the avoided control costs based on current levels of vaccination. The results of the benefit-cost analysis suggest strong economic returns from PPR eradication. Based on a 15-year programme with total discounted costs of US$2.26 billion, we estimate discounted benefits of US$76.5 billion, yielding a net benefit of US$74.2 billion. This suggests a benefit cost ratio of 33.8, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 199%. As PPR mortality rates are highly variable in different populations, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on lower and higher mortality scenarios. All the scenarios examined indicate that investment in PPR eradication would be highly beneficial economically. Furthermore, removing one of the major constraints to small ruminant production would be of considerable benefit to many of the most vulnerable communities in Africa and Asia.
authors.affiliation: Production and Population Health Department, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hatfield, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Bryony A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.affiliation: Lab 863 Limited, Edgware, United Kingdom, and Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: Karl M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Rich
authors.affiliation: Tufts Cummings School of Veterinary Medicine, North Grafton, Massachusetts, United States of America.
authors.forename: Jeffrey C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Mariner
authors.affiliation: The Nelson Mandela African Institute of Science and Technology, Arusha, Tanzania.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Anderson
authors.affiliation: Geelong Centre for Emerging Infectious Disease, Medical Faculty, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia.
authors.forename: Martyn
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jeggo
authors.affiliation: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
authors.forename: Sam
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Thevasagayam
authors.affiliation: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
authors.forename: Yi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Cai
authors.affiliation: Scotland's Rural College, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Andrew R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Peters
authors.affiliation: Taurus Animal Health, Headley Down, Hampshire, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Roeder
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D060740:Disease Eradication / Q000191:economics*; D004797:Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay; D015511:Goat Diseases / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control; D006041:Goats; D029021:Peste-des-Petits-Ruminants / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D018107:Peste-des-petits-ruminants virus / Q000502:physiology; D012756:Sheep; D012757:Sheep Diseases / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control