title: Effects of Response to 2014-2015 Ebola Outbreak on Deaths from Malaria, HIV/AIDS, and Tuberculosis, West Africa.
abstract: Response to the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in West Africa overwhelmed the healthcare systems of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, reducing access to health services for diagnosis and treatment for the major diseases that are endemic to the region: malaria, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. To estimate the repercussions of the Ebola outbreak on the populations at risk for these diseases, we developed computational models for disease transmission and infection progression. We estimated that a 50% reduction in access to healthcare services during the Ebola outbreak exacerbated malaria, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis mortality rates by additional death counts of 6,269 (2,564-12,407) in Guinea; 1,535 (522-2,8780) in Liberia; and 2,819 (844-4,844) in Sierra Leone. The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak was catastrophic in these countries, and its indirect impact of increasing the mortality rates of other diseases was also substantial.
authors.forename: Alyssa S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Parpia
authors.forename: Martial L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Ndeffo-Mbah
authors.forename: Natasha S
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Wenzel
authors.forename: Alison P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Galvani
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000401:mortality*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003198:Computer Simulation; D017281:Cost of Illness; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D016701:Guinea / Q000453:epidemiology; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000401:mortality; D006297:Health Services Accessibility; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D007988:Liberia / Q000453:epidemiology; D008288:Malaria / Q000401:mortality*; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D012807:Sierra Leone / Q000453:epidemiology; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000401:mortality*; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Ebola virus; HIV/AIDS and other retroviruses; healthcare; malaria; mathematical model; mortality rate; mycobacteria; parasites; parasitic; tuberculosis and other mycobacteria; vector-borne infections; viruses; zoonoses