title: Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain.
abstract: Be-FAST is a computer program based on a time-spatial stochastic spread mathematical model for studying the transmission of infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. The present work describes a new module integrated into Be-FAST to model the economic consequences of the spreading of classical swine fever (CSF) and other infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. CSF is financially one of the most damaging diseases in the swine industry worldwide. Specifically in Spain, the economic costs in the two last CSF epidemics (1997 and 2001) reached jointly more than 108 million euros. The present analysis suggests that severe CSF epidemics are associated with significant economic costs, approximately 80% of which are related to animal culling. Direct costs associated with control measures are strongly associated with the number of infected farms, while indirect costs are more strongly associated with epidemic duration. The economic model has been validated with economic information around the last outbreaks in Spain. These results suggest that our economic module may be useful for analysing and predicting economic consequences of livestock disease epidemics.
authors.affiliation: VISAVET Center and Animal Health Department, Veterinary School, Complutense University of Madrid, Av. Puerta de Hierro s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain. Electronic address: eduardofc@ucm.es.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Fernández-Carrión
authors.affiliation: MOMAT Research Group, IMI-Institute and Applied Mathematics Department, Complutense University of Madrid, Plaza de Ciencias, 3, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Ivorra
authors.affiliation: CADMS, Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, School of Veterinary Medicine, UC Davis, One Shields Avenue, 1112 Tupper Hall, Davis, CA 95616, United States.
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Martínez-López
authors.affiliation: MOMAT Research Group, IMI-Institute and Applied Mathematics Department, Complutense University of Madrid, Plaza de Ciencias, 3, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Ramos
authors.affiliation: VISAVET Center and Animal Health Department, Veterinary School, Complutense University of Madrid, Av. Puerta de Hierro s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Sánchez-Vizcaíno
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D006691:Classical Swine Fever / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000191:economics / Q000662:veterinary*; D058751:Livestock; D018803:Models, Economic; D012984:Software; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission
keywords: Be-FAST; Classical swine fever; Economic modeling; Epidemiological modeling; Risk surveillance