title: Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.
abstract: Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on anad hocbasis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers.WIREs Clim Change2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.
authors.affiliation: Hadley Centre Met Office Exeter UK.
authors.forename: Peter A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Stott
authors.affiliation: Hadley Centre Met Office Exeter UK.
authors.forename: Nikolaos
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Christidis
authors.affiliation: Centre for the Environment Oxford University Oxford UK.
authors.forename: Friederike E L
authors.initials: FE
authors.lastname: Otto
authors.affiliation: National Climate Center China Meteorological Adminstration Beijing China.
authors.forename: Ying
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Observatoire de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines for University of Versailles Versailles France.
authors.forename: Jean-Paul
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Vanderlinden
authors.affiliation: Weather and Climate Modeling Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut De Bilt Netherlands.
authors.forename: Geert Jan
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: van Oldenborgh
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement for Centre National de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) Paris France.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Vautard
authors.affiliation: Institut für Küstenforschung Geesthacht Germany.
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: von Storch
authors.affiliation: Centre for the Environment Oxford University Oxford UK.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Walton
authors.affiliation: Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation in the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment Gif-sur-Yvette France.
authors.forename: Pascal
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Yiou
authors.affiliation: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Victoria Canada.
authors.forename: Francis W
authors.initials: FW
authors.lastname: Zwiers