title: Effect of Climate Factors on the Childhood Pneumonia in Papua New Guinea: A Time-Series Analysis.
abstract: This study aimed to assess the association between climate factors and the incidence of childhood pneumonia in Papua New Guinea quantitatively and to evaluate the variability of the effect size according to their geographic properties. The pneumonia incidence in children under five-year and meteorological factors were obtained from six areas, including monthly rainfall and the monthly average daily maximum temperatures during the period from 1997 to 2006 from national health surveillance data. A generalized linear model was applied to measure the effect size of local and regional climate factor. The pooled risk of pneumonia in children per every 10 mm increase of rainfall was 0.24% (95% confidence interval: -0.01%-0.50%), and risk per every 1 °C increase of the monthly mean of the maximum daily temperatures was 4.88% (95% CI: 1.57-8.30). Southern oscillation index and dipole mode index showed an overall negative effect on childhood pneumonia incidence, -0.57% and -4.30%, respectively, and the risk of pneumonia was higher in the dry season than in the rainy season (pooled effect: 12.08%). There was a variability in the relationship between climate factors and pneumonia which is assumed to reflect distribution of the determinants of and vulnerability to pneumonia in the community.
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, Korea. secondmath85@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Jinseob
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 2066 Seobu-ro, Jangan-gu, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do 16419, Korea. kimjh32@skku.edu.
authors.forename: Jong-Hun
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 2066 Seobu-ro, Jangan-gu, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do 16419, Korea. hkcheong@skku.edu.
authors.forename: Hae-Kwan
authors.initials: HK
authors.lastname: Cheong
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, and Institute of Public Health and Environment, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, Korea. hokim@snu.ac.kr.
authors.forename: Ho
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577, Japan. honda@taiiku.tsukuba.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Yasushi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Honda
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Dankook University College of Medicine, 119 Dandae-ro, Dongnam-gu, Cheonan, Chungcheongnam-do 31116, Korea. minaha@dku.edu.
authors.forename: Mina
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ha
authors.affiliation: Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, 1-12-4 Sakamoto Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan. hashizum@nagasaki-u.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Masahiro
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hashizume
authors.affiliation: National Department of Health, P.O. Box 807 Waigani, Port Moresby, National Capital District, Papua New 131, Guinea. joel_kolam@health.gov.pg.
authors.forename: Joel
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kolam
authors.affiliation: National Weather Service, P.O. Box 1240 Boroko, Port Mresby, National Capital District, Papua New 111, Guinea. kinape@pngmet.gov.pg.
authors.forename: Kasis
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Inape
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002980:Climate; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D010219:Papua New Guinea / Q000453:epidemiology; D011014:Pneumonia / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012621:Seasons
keywords: Asia-Pacific; El Niño southern oscillation; Indian Ocean dipole; climate; meta-analysis; seasonality; tropical area; vulnerability