title: Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.
abstract: A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. xuwei@bnu.edu.cn.|Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs &amp; Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. xuwei@bnu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Wei
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China. zhuoli@mail.sysu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Li
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Zhuo
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou 510080, China. zhengjing@grmc.gov.cn.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zheng
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control & Resource Re-use, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China. geyi@nju.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Yi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ge
authors.affiliation: College of Architecture & Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China. gzh@szu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Zhihui
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Gu
authors.affiliation: School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China. ygangtian@cug.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Yugang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Tian
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D057231:Climate Change; D004189:Disaster Planning; D004190:Disasters / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D006801:Humans; D055904:Meteorology; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012621:Seasons
keywords: China; casualty; exceedance probability; information diffusion; meteorological hazard; risk of multiple hazards