title: Regional forecast model for the Olea pollen season in Extremadura (SW Spain).
abstract: The olive tree (Olea europaea) is a predominantly Mediterranean anemophilous species. The pollen allergens from this tree are an important cause of allergic problems. Olea pollen may be relevant in relation to climate change, due to the fact that its flowering phenology is related to meteorological parameters. This study aims to investigate airborne Olea pollen data from a city on the SW Iberian Peninsula, to analyse the trends in these data and their relationships with meteorological parameters using time series analysis. Aerobiological sampling was conducted from 1994 to 2013 in Badajoz (SW Spain) using a 7-day Hirst-type volumetric sampler. The main Olea pollen season lasted an average of 34 days, from May 4th to June 7th. The model proposed to forecast airborne pollen concentrations, described by one equation. This expression is composed of two terms: the first term represents the resilience of the pollen concentration trend in the air according to the average concentration of the previous 10 days; the second term was obtained from considering the actual pollen concentration value, which is calculated based on the most representative meteorological variables multiplied by a fitting coefficient. Due to the allergenic characteristics of this pollen type, it should be necessary to forecast its short-term prevalence using a long record of data in a city with a Mediterranean climate. The model obtained provides a suitable level of confidence to forecast Olea airborne pollen concentration.
authors.affiliation: Department of Construction, Polytechnic School, University of Extremadura, Avda. de la Universidad s/n, Cáceres, Spain. santiferro@unex.es.
authors.forename: Santiago
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fernández-Rodríguez
authors.affiliation: Department of Construction, Polytechnic School, University of Extremadura, Avda. de la Universidad s/n, Cáceres, Spain.
authors.forename: Pablo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Durán-Barroso
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Physics, Engineering Agricultural School, University of Extremadura, Avda. Adolfo Suárez s/n, Badajoz, Spain.
authors.forename: Inmaculada
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Silva-Palacios
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Biology, Ecology and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Extremadura, Avda. Elvas s/n, Badajoz, Spain.
authors.forename: Rafael
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Tormo-Molina
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Biology, Ecology and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Extremadura, Avda. Elvas s/n, Badajoz, Spain.
authors.forename: José María
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Maya-Manzano
authors.affiliation: Section of Allergology, Hospital Universitario Infanta Cristina, Avda. Elvas s/n, Badajoz, Spain.
authors.forename: Ángela
authors.initials: Á
authors.lastname: Gonzalo-Garijo
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000485:Allergens / Q000032:analysis*; D005544:Forecasting; D006813:Humidity; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D031658:Olea; D011058:Pollen; D011891:Rain; D012621:Seasons; D013030:Spain; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D000485:Allergens
keywords: Forecasting; Olea europaea; Temporal modelling; Time series analysis