title: Costs, effects and implementation of routine data emergency admission risk prediction models in primary care for patients with, or at risk of, chronic conditions: a systematic review protocol.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Emergency admission risk prediction models are increasingly used to identify patients, typically with one or more chronic conditions, for proactive management in primary care to avoid admissions, save costs and improve patient experience.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To identify and review the published evidence on the costs, effects and implementation of emergency admission risk prediction models in primary care for patients with, or at risk of, chronic conditions.
  
  
  METHODS
  We shall search for studies of healthcare interventions using routine data-generated emergency admission risk models. We shall report: the effects on emergency admissions and health costs; clinician and patient views; and implementation findings. We shall search ASSIA, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library, HMIC, ISI Web of Science, MEDLINE and Scopus from 2005, review references in and citations of included articles, search key journals and contact experts. Study selection, data extraction and quality assessment will be performed by two independent reviewers.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  No ethical permissions are required for this study using published data. Findings will be disseminated widely, including publication in a peer-reviewed journal and through conferences in primary and emergency care and chronic conditions. We judge our results will help a wide audience including primary care practitioners and commissioners, and policymakers.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  CRD42015016874; Pre-results.
authors.affiliation: Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, UK.
authors.forename: Mark Rhys
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Kingston
authors.affiliation: Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, UK.
authors.forename: Bridie Angela
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Evans
authors.affiliation: Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, UK.
authors.forename: Kayleigh
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nelson
authors.affiliation: Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, UK.
authors.forename: Hayley
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hutchings
authors.affiliation: Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, UK.
authors.forename: Ian
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Russell
authors.affiliation: Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, UK.
authors.forename: Helen
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0173-8843
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Snooks
mesh_terms: D002908:Chronic Disease / Q000191:economics*; D004632:Emergency Medical Services / Q000191:economics*; D006801:Humans; D015201:Meta-Analysis as Topic; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010343:Patient Admission / Q000191:economics*; D011320:Primary Health Care / Q000458:organization & administration*; D012107:Research Design; D000078202:Systematic Reviews as Topic
keywords: EPIDEMIOLOGY; PREVENTIVE MEDICINE; PRIMARY CARE; Risk management < HEALTH SERVICES ADMINISTRATION & MANAGEMENT