title: [Variations between 2 ECG as predictors of atrial fibrillation: Cohort study].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the association between delta variations in the parameters of 2 sinusal ECG with atrial fibrillation (AF) onset.
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective cohort of 9,975 adult patients and members of the prepaid system at Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires from Argentina, who had at least 2 sinusal ECG between 2006 and 2011. Population was followed up for detection of AF. All measurements and electrocardiographic deltas (differences between the 2 ECG) were standardized. Hazard ratio (HR) was estimated for the development of AF for each delta of the different ECG parameters using a Cox regression model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During a median follow up of 3.5 years, 189 patients (1.89%) developed AF. Heart rate delta, ST interval delta and P wave amplitude were predictors of AF. Hazard ratio Adjusted for clinical characteristics and ECGbasal values was 0,86 (CI95%: 0.75-0.98, p=0.024) for heart rate delta, 1.12 (CI95%: 0.98-1.27, p=0.082) for ST interval delta and 1.21 (CI95%: 1.05-1.38, p=0.006) for P wave amplitude delta.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Differences of heart rate and P wave amplitude between ECG's measurements may predict AF, independently of clinical features and ECGbasal values.
authors.affiliation: Área de Investigación en Medicina Interna, Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
authors.forename: María Florencia
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Grande Ratti
authors.affiliation: Área de Investigación en Medicina Interna, Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
authors.forename: María Lourdes
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Posadas-Martínez
authors.affiliation: Sección Hipertensión, Área Clínica Médica, Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
authors.forename: Paula
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Cuffaro
authors.affiliation: Área de Informática Clínica, Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
authors.forename: Analía
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Baum
authors.affiliation: Área de Bioingeniería, Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
authors.forename: Adrián
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gomez
authors.affiliation: Área de Bioingeniería, Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
authors.forename: Máximo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Paltrinieri
authors.affiliation: Área de Bioingeniería, Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
authors.forename: Jorge
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Martínez Garbino
authors.affiliation: Área de Investigación en Medicina Interna, Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
authors.forename: Fernán
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: González Bernaldo de Quirós
authors.affiliation: Sección Electrofisiología, Área Cardiología, Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
authors.forename: Gustavo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Maid
authors.affiliation: Área de Investigación en Medicina Interna, Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina. Electronic address: diego.giunta@hospitalitaliano.org.ar.
authors.forename: Diego
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Hernán Giunta
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000175:diagnosis*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004562:Electrocardiography; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012189:Retrospective Studies
keywords: Argentina; Atrial fibrillation; Electrocadiograma; Electrocardiography; Fibrilación auricular; Tachyarrhythmia; Taquiarritmias