title: The Novel Scoring System for 30-Day Mortality in Patients with Non-variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.
abstract: Although the mortality rates for non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) have recently decreased, it remains a significant medical problem.
  
  
  
  The main aim of this prospective multicenter database study was to construct a clinically useful predictive scoring system by using our predictors and compare its prognostic accuracy with that of the Rockall scoring system.
  
  
  
  Data were collected from consecutive patients with NVUGIB. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Each independent predictor was assigned an integral point proportional to the odds ratio (OR) and we used the area under the curve to compare the discrimination ability between the new predictive model and the Rockall score.
  
  
  
  The independent predictors of mortality included age >65 years [OR 2.627; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.298-5.318], hemodynamic instability (OR 2.217; 95 % CI 1.069-4.597), serum blood urea nitrogen level >40 mg/dL (OR 1.895; 95 % CI 1.029-3.490), active bleeding at endoscopy (OR 2.434; 95 % CI 1.283-4.616), transfusions (OR 3.811; 95 % CI 1.640-8.857), comorbidities (OR 3.481; 95 % CI 1.405-8.624), and rebleeding (OR 10.581; 95 % CI 5.590-20.030). The new predictive model showed a high discrimination capability and was significantly superior to the Rockall score in predicting the risk of death (OR 0.837;95 % CI 0.818-0.855 vs. 0.761; 0.739-0.782; P = 0.0123).
  
  
  
  The new predictive score was significantly more accurate than the Rockall score in predicting death in NVUGIB patients. We need to prospectively validate the accuracy of this score for predicting mortality in NVUGIB patients.
authors.affiliation: Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kyungpook National University Medical Center, 474 Hakjeongdong, Buk-gu, Daegu, South Korea.
authors.forename: Sejin
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hwang
authors.affiliation: Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kyungpook National University Medical Center, 474 Hakjeongdong, Buk-gu, Daegu, South Korea. sw-jeon@hanmail.net.
authors.forename: Seong Woo
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9539-9389
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Jeon
authors.affiliation: Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Catholic University of Daegu School of Medicine, Daegu, South Korea.
authors.forename: Joong Goo
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Kwon
authors.affiliation: Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Catholic University of Daegu School of Medicine, Daegu, South Korea.
authors.forename: Dong Wook
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Gyeongsang National University Hospital, Jinju, South Korea.
authors.forename: Chang Yoon
authors.initials: CY
authors.lastname: Ha
authors.affiliation: Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Keimyung University Dongsan Medical Center, Daegu, South Korea.
authors.forename: Kwang Bum
authors.initials: KB
authors.lastname: Cho
authors.affiliation: Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Yeungnam University College of Medicine, Daegu, South Korea.
authors.forename: ByungIk
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Jang
authors.affiliation: Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Dongguk University College of Medicine, Gyeongju, South Korea.
authors.forename: Jung Bae
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Park
authors.affiliation: Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Soonchunhyang University Hospital, Gumi, South Korea.
authors.forename: Youn Sun
authors.initials: YS
authors.lastname: Park
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006471:Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D041742:Upper Gastrointestinal Tract / Q000473:pathology*
keywords: Gastrointestinal hemorrhage; Mortality; Prediction; Risk assessment