title: The death spiral: predicting death in Drosophila cohorts.
abstract: Drosophila research has identified a new feature of aging that has been called the death spiral. The death spiral is a period prior to death during which there is a decline in life-history characters, such as fecundity, as well as physiological characters. First, we review the data from the Drosophila and medfly literature that suggest the existence of death spirals. Second, we re-analyze five cases with such data from four laboratories using a generalized statistical framework, a re-analysis that strengthens the case for the salience of the death spiral phenomenon. Third, we raise the issue whether death spirals need to be taken into account in the analysis of functional characters over age, in aging research with model species as well as human data.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA. ldmuelle@uci.edu.
authors.forename: Laurence D
authors.initials: LD
authors.lastname: Mueller
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA.|Department of Biological Science, California State University Fullerton, 800 North State College Blvd., Fullerton, CA, 92831-3599, USA.
authors.forename: Parvin
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Shahrestani
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA.|UCLA Office of Vice Chancellor for Research-UCLA Grand Challenges, BOX 951405, 2248 Murphy Hall, Los Angeles, CA, 90095-1405, USA.
authors.forename: Casandra L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Rauser
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA.
authors.forename: Michael R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Rose
mesh_terms: D000375:Aging / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003643:Death; D004330:Drosophila / Q000502:physiology*; D005298:Fertility / Q000502:physiology; D008136:Longevity / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011379:Prognosis; D012098:Reproduction / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: Aging; Demography; Disability; Drosophila melanogaster; Fecundity; Virility