title: Socially mediated effects of climate change decrease survival of hibernating Alpine marmots.
abstract: In the context of global change, an increasing challenge is to understand the interaction between weather variables and life histories. Species-specific life histories should condition the way climate influences population dynamics, particularly those that are associated with environmental constraints, such as lifestyles like hibernation and sociality. However, the influence of lifestyle in the response of organisms to climate change remains poorly understood. Based on a 23-year longitudinal study on Alpine marmots, we investigated how their lifestyle, characterized by a long hibernation and a high degree of sociality, interacts with the ongoing climate change to shape temporal variation in age-specific survival. As generally reported in other hibernating species, we expected survival of Alpine marmots to be affected by the continuous lengthening of the growing season of plants more than by changes in winter conditions. We found, however, that Alpine marmots displayed lower juvenile survival over time. Colder winters associated with a thinner snow layer lowered juvenile survival, which in turn was associated with a decrease in the relative number of helpers in groups the following years, and therefore lowered the chances of over-winter survival of juveniles born in the most recent years. Our results provide evidence that constraints on life-history traits associated with hibernation and sociality caused juvenile survival to decrease over time, which might prevent Alpine marmots coping successfully with climate change.
authors.affiliation: Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon, France - Université Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France.
authors.forename: Célia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Rézouki
authors.affiliation: Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon, France - Université Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France.
authors.forename: Marion
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tafani
authors.affiliation: Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon, France - Université Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France.
authors.forename: Aurélie
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cohas
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'écologie Alpine, CNRS UMR5553, Université de Savoie, Bâtiment Belledonne, F-73376, Le Bourget-du-Lac, France.
authors.forename: Anne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Loison
authors.affiliation: Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon, France - Université Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France.
authors.forename: Jean-Michel
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Gaillard
authors.affiliation: Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon, France - Université Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France.
authors.forename: Dominique
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Allainé
authors.affiliation: Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon, France - Université Lyon 1, CNRS, UMR5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, F-69622, Villeurbanne, France.
authors.forename: Christophe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bonenfant
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001522:Behavior, Animal; D057231:Climate Change; D005602:France; D006605:Hibernation; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008392:Marmota / Q000502:physiology*; D012914:Snow; D012919:Social Behavior; D016019:Survival Analysis
keywords: French Alps; Marmota marmota; lifestyle; path analysis; sociality; winter conditions