title: Ecological risk assessment of ecosystem services in the Taihu Lake Basin of China from 1985 to 2020.
abstract: There are tremendous theoretical, methodological and policy challenges in evaluating the impact of land-use change on the degradation of ecosystem services (ES) at the regional scale. This study addresses these challenges by developing an interdisciplinary methodology based on the Procedure for Ecological Tiered Assessment of Risk (PETAR). This novel methodology integrates ecological models with a land-use change model. This study quantifies the multi-dimensional degradation risks of ES in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) of China from 1985 to 2020. Four key ES related to water purification, water quantity adjustment, carbon sequestration and grain production are selected. The study employs models of Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC), Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP), Biome-BGC and Agro-ecological Zoning (AEZ) for assimilations. Land-use changes by 2020 were projected using a geographically weighted multinomial logit-cellular automata (GWML-CA) model. The results show that rapid land-use change has posed a great degradation risk of ES in the region in 1985-2020. Slightly less than two-thirds of the basin experienced degradation of ES over the 1985-2010 period, and about 12% of the basin will continue to experience degradation until 2020. Hot spots with severe deterioration in 2010-2020 are projected to be centered around some small and less developed cities in the region. Regulating accelerated urban sprawl and population growth, reinforcing current environmental programs, and establishing monitoring systems for observing dynamics of regional ES are suggested as practical counter-measures.
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA. Electronic address: xbxu@niglas.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Xibao
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China. Electronic address: gsyang@niglas.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Guishan
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Discipline of Geography, Environment and Population, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5000, Australia. Electronic address: yan.tan@adelaide.edu.au.
authors.forename: Yan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Tan
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA. Electronic address: qzhuang@purdue.edu.
authors.forename: Qianlai
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Zhuang
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China. Electronic address: hpli@niglas.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Hengpeng
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China. Electronic address: rrwan@niglas.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Rongrong
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Wan
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China. Electronic address: wzsu@niglas.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Weizhong
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Su
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China. Electronic address: jianzhang@niglas.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Jian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D057965:Carbon Sequestration; D002681:China; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D060106:Lakes / Q000737:chemistry; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011158:Population Growth; D018570:Risk Assessment
keywords: Assimilation models; Ecosystem services; Integrated degradation risk assessment; Land-use change