title: Uncertainty-based Optimization Algorithms in Designing Fractionated Spacecraft.
abstract: A fractionated spacecraft is an innovative application of a distributive space system. To fully understand the impact of various uncertainties on its development, launch and in-orbit operation, we use the stochastic missioncycle cost to comprehensively evaluate the survivability, flexibility, reliability and economy of the ways of dividing the various modules of the different configurations of fractionated spacecraft. We systematically describe its concept and then analyze its evaluation and optimal design method that exists during recent years and propose the stochastic missioncycle cost for comprehensive evaluation. We also establish the models of the costs such as module development, launch and deployment and the impacts of their uncertainties respectively. Finally, we carry out the Monte Carlo simulation of the complete missioncycle costs of various configurations of the fractionated spacecraft under various uncertainties and give and compare the probability density distribution and statistical characteristics of its stochastic missioncycle cost, using the two strategies of timing module replacement and non-timing module replacement. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the comprehensive evaluation method and show that our evaluation method can comprehensively evaluate the adaptability of the fractionated spacecraft under different technical and mission conditions.
authors.affiliation: College of Astronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an, Shaan xi 710072, People's Republic of China.|Department of Mechanical &Manufacturing Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T3A1L9.
authors.forename: Xin
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Ning
authors.affiliation: College of Astronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an, Shaan xi 710072, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Jianping
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Yuan
authors.affiliation: College of Astronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an, Shaan xi 710072, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Xiaokui
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Yue