title: The size of the population potentially in need of palliative care in Germany--an estimation based on death registration data.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  No data exist on the size of the population potentially in need of palliative care in Germany. The aim of this study is to estimate the size of the German population that may benefit from palliative care.
  
  
  METHODS
  Based on existing population-based methods (Rosenwax and Murtagh), German death registration data were analyzed and contrasted with international results. The data include all death cases in 2013 in Germany.
  
  
  RESULTS
  According to the method Rosenwax defined, between 40.7% (minimal estimate) and 96.1% (maximal estimate) of death cases could benefit from palliative care. The estimation, based on Murtagh's refined method, results in 78.0% of death cases potentially being eligible for palliative care. The percentage of potential palliative care candidates is conditioned by age. Based on the Murtagh Method, in the age category between 30 and 39 years, a potential demand for palliative care can be found for 40.4% percent of all deaths occurring in this age category, with this number increasing to 80.3% in the age bracket of 80 years and over.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  An estimation of the size of the population in need is essential for healthcare planning. Therefore, our data serve as a guide and starting point for further research.
authors.affiliation: IMVR - Institute for Medical Sociology, Health Services Research and Rehabilitation Science, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany. nadine.scholten@uk-koeln.de.
authors.forename: Nadine
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Scholten
authors.affiliation: IMVR - Institute for Medical Sociology, Health Services Research and Rehabilitation Science, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
authors.forename: Anna Lena
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Günther
authors.affiliation: IMVR - Institute for Medical Sociology, Health Services Research and Rehabilitation Science, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
authors.forename: Holger
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Pfaff
authors.affiliation: IMVR - Institute for Medical Sociology, Health Services Research and Rehabilitation Science, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
authors.forename: Ute
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Karbach
mesh_terms: D018672:Community Health Planning / Q000379:methods*; D003643:Death; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D010166:Palliative Care / Q000379:methods*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D014798:Vital Statistics