title: Uncertainty of Monetary Valued Ecosystem Services - Value Transfer Functions for Global Mapping.
abstract: Growing demand of resources increases pressure on ecosystem services (ES) and biodiversity. Monetary valuation of ES is frequently seen as a decision-support tool by providing explicit values for unconsidered, non-market goods and services. Here we present global value transfer functions by using a meta-analytic framework for the synthesis of 194 case studies capturing 839 monetary values of ES. For 12 ES the variance of monetary values could be explained with a subset of 93 study- and site-specific variables by utilizing boosted regression trees. This provides the first global quantification of uncertainties and transferability of monetary valuations. Models explain from 18% (water provision) to 44% (food provision) of variance and provide statistically reliable extrapolations for 70% (water provision) to 91% (food provision) of the terrestrial earth surface. Although the application of different valuation methods is a source of uncertainty, we found evidence that assuming homogeneity of ecosystems is a major error in value transfer function models. Food provision is positively correlated with better life domains and variables indicating positive conditions for human well-being. Water provision and recreation service show that weak ownerships affect valuation of other common goods negatively (e.g. non-privately owned forests). Furthermore, we found support for the shifting baseline hypothesis in valuing climate regulation. Ecological conditions and societal vulnerability determine valuation of extreme event prevention. Valuation of habitat services is negatively correlated with indicators characterizing less favorable areas. Our analysis represents a stepping stone to establish a standardized integration of and reporting on uncertainties for reliable and valid benefit transfer as an important component for decision support.
authors.affiliation: UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department Computational Landscape Ecology, 04318 Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Schmidt
authors.affiliation: UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department Computational Landscape Ecology, 04318 Leipzig, Germany.|Caprion Proteome, Montréal, QC H2X 3Y7, Canada.
authors.forename: Ameur M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Manceur
authors.affiliation: UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department Computational Landscape Ecology, 04318 Leipzig, Germany.|iDiv, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.|Institute of Geoscience & Geography, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, 06099 Halle (Saale), Germany.
authors.forename: Ralf
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Seppelt
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D018533:Biomass; D002980:Climate; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000191:economics* / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D017753:Ecosystem; D033161:Government Regulation; D006801:Humans; D011998:Recreation / Q000191:economics*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D035501:Uncertainty; D014881:Water Supply / Q000191:economics*