title: Estimating Temperature-Mortality Exposure-Response Relationships and Optimum Ambient Temperature at the Multi-City Level of China.
abstract: Few studies have explored temperature-mortality relationships in China, especially at the multi-large city level. This study was based on the data of seven typical, large Chinese cities to examine temperature-mortality relationships and optimum temperature of China. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the acute-effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality, and meta-analysis was used to merge data. Furthermore, the lagged effects of temperature up to 40 days on mortality and optimum temperature were analyzed using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We found that for all non-accidental mortality, high temperature could significantly increase the excess risk (ER) of death by 0.33% (95% confidence interval: 0.11%, 0.56%) with the temperature increase of 1 °C. Similar but non-significant ER of death was observed when temperature decreased. The lagged effect of temperature showed that the relative risk of non-accidental mortality was lowest at 21 °C. Our research suggests that high temperatures are more likely to cause an acute increase in mortality. There was a lagged effect of temperature on mortality, with an optimum temperature of 21 °C. Our results could provide a theoretical basis for climate-related public health policy.
authors.affiliation: Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Huayue Road, Hedong District, Tianjin 300011, China. zengqianghaiyan@126.com.
authors.forename: Qiang
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.affiliation: Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China. liguoxing@hsc.pku.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Guoxing
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Huayue Road, Hedong District, Tianjin 300011, China. yushan.273@163.com.
authors.forename: Yushan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Cui
authors.affiliation: Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Huayue Road, Hedong District, Tianjin 300011, China. jiangguohongtjcdc@126.com.
authors.forename: Guohong
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.affiliation: Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China. xcpan@hsc.pku.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Xiaochuan
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Pan
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D044466:Asian People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D002947:Cities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002980:Climate; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D018882:Heat Stress Disorders / Q000401:mortality*; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D062486:Public Health Surveillance; D011640:Public Policy; D012306:Risk; D014504:Urban Health
keywords: distributed lag non-linear model; generalized additive model; lagged effects; mortality; temperature