title: Rising population of survivors of oral squamous cell cancer in the United States.
abstract: The incidence of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) and a subset of oral cavity cancer (OCC) is increasing in the United States. To the authors' knowledge, the presumed growing prevalence of survivors of OPC and OCC has not been investigated to date.
  
  
  
  Retrospective analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data (1975-2012) estimated changes in incidence, 5-year cause-specific survival, and prevalence for OPC and OCC. Changes in incidence, cause-specific survival and prevalence were estimated by linear regression and expressed as the percentage change (B). Differences in incidence trends over time were determined by joinpoint analysis.
  
  
  
  The incidence of OPC increased by 62.6% from 1975 through 2012. Notable increases in OPC incidence were observed among men, white individuals, and those of younger ages. The 5-year survival for OPC increased significantly for all sexes, races, and individuals aged >30 years, with white individuals and males experiencing the largest increase in survival. By contrast, the incidence of OCC declined by 22.3% during the same time period. OCC incidence decreased across all groups but increased among individuals aged 30 to 39 years. Significant increases in survival were observed for OCC, except for those who were female, black, and aged <40 years. The prevalence of survivors of OPC increased from 2000 to 2012 (B, 115.1 per 100,000 individuals per year; P<.0001), whereas the prevalence of survivors of OCC significantly decreased (B, -15.8 per 100,000 individuals per year; P<.0001).
  
  
  
  The prevalence of survivors of OPC is increasing, whereas the prevalence of survivors of OCC is declining. These data portend significant implications for long-term care planning for survivors of OPC and OCC. Cancer 2016;122:1380-1387. © 2016 American Cancer Society.
authors.affiliation: Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Mira A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Patel
authors.affiliation: Division of Oncology Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Amanda L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Blackford
authors.affiliation: Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Eleni M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Rettig
authors.affiliation: Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Jeremy D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Richmon
authors.affiliation: Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: David W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Eisele
authors.affiliation: Department of Otolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Carole
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Fakhry
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D044383:Black People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D002294:Carcinoma, Squamous Cell / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology / Q000532:radiotherapy / Q000601:surgery; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009062:Mouth Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology / Q000532:radiotherapy / Q000601:surgery; D009959:Oropharyngeal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000208:ethnology / Q000532:radiotherapy / Q000601:surgery; D015995:Prevalence; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018426:SEER Program; D017678:Sex Distribution; D017741:Survivors / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D044465:White People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D001741:Black or African American
keywords: human papillomavirus; oral cancer; oropharyngeal cancer; survivors