title: Letter to the Editor: Probabilistic population forecasts for informed decision making.
abstract: Demographic forecasts are inherently uncertain. Nevertheless, an appropriate description of this uncertainty is a key underpinning of informed decision making. In recent decades various methods have been developed to describe the uncertainty of future populations and their structures, but the uptake of such tools amongst the practitioners of official population statistics has been lagging behind. In this letter we revisit the arguments for the practical uses of uncertainty assessments in official population forecasts, and address their implications for decision making. We discuss essential challenges, both for the forecasters and forecast users, and make recommendations for the official statistics community.
authors.affiliation: University of Southampton.
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authors.affiliation: formerly the UN Population Division.
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authors.affiliation: University of Southampton.
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authors.affiliation: UN Population Division.
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authors.lastname: Owens
authors.affiliation: University of Washington.
authors.forename: Adrian
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authors.lastname: Raftery
authors.affiliation: University of Washington.
authors.forename: Hana
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authors.lastname: Ševčíková
authors.affiliation: University of Southampton.
authors.forename: Peter W F
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Smith