title: Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones.
abstract: Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward.
authors.affiliation: Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901, USA.
authors.forename: S M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Glenn
authors.affiliation: Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901, USA.
authors.forename: T N
authors.initials: TN
authors.lastname: Miles
authors.affiliation: Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901, USA.
authors.forename: G N
authors.initials: GN
authors.lastname: Seroka
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, 3663 Zhongshan Road North, Shanghai 200062, China.
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901, USA.
authors.forename: R K
authors.initials: RK
authors.lastname: Forney
authors.affiliation: Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 7 Nanhai Road, Qingdao 266071, China.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.affiliation: Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901, USA.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Roarty
authors.affiliation: Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901, USA.
authors.forename: O
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Schofield
authors.affiliation: Center for Ocean Observing Leadership, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901, USA.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kohut