title: Toward a Mechanistic Understanding of Environmentally Forced Zoonotic Disease Emergence: Sin Nombre Hantavirus.
abstract: Understanding the environmental drivers of zoonotic reservoir and human interactions is crucial to understanding disease risk, but these drivers are poorly predicted. We propose a mechanistic understanding of human-reservoir interactions, using hantavirus pulmonary syndrome as a case study. Crucial processes underpinning the disease's incidence remain poorly studied, including the connectivity among natural and peridomestic deer mouse host activity, virus transmission, and human exposure. We found that disease cases were greatest in arid states and declined exponentially with increasing precipitation. Within arid environments, relatively rare climatic conditions (e.g., El Niño) are associated with increased rainfall and reservoir abundance, producing more frequent virus transmission and host dispersal. We suggest that deer mice increase their occupancy of peridomestic structures during spring-summer, amplifying intraspecific transmission and human infection risk. Disease incidence in arid states may increase with predicted climatic changes. Mechanistic approaches incorporating reservoir behavior, reservoir-human interactions, and pathogen spillover could enhance our understanding of global hantavirus ecology, with applications to other directly transmitted zoonoses.
authors.affiliation: Scott Carver ( scott.carver@utas.edu.au ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula.
authors.forename: Scott
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Carver
authors.affiliation: Scott Carver ( scott.carver@utas.edu.au ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula.
authors.forename: James N
authors.initials: JN
authors.lastname: Mills
authors.affiliation: Scott Carver ( scott.carver@utas.edu.au ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula.
authors.forename: Cheryl A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Parmenter
authors.affiliation: Scott Carver ( scott.carver@utas.edu.au ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula.
authors.forename: Robert R
authors.initials: RR
authors.lastname: Parmenter
authors.affiliation: Scott Carver ( scott.carver@utas.edu.au ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula.
authors.forename: Kyle S
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Richardson
authors.affiliation: Scott Carver ( scott.carver@utas.edu.au ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula.
authors.forename: Rachel L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Harris
authors.affiliation: Scott Carver ( scott.carver@utas.edu.au ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula.
authors.forename: Richard J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Douglass
authors.affiliation: Scott Carver ( scott.carver@utas.edu.au ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula.
authors.forename: Amy J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Kuenzi
authors.affiliation: Scott Carver ( scott.carver@utas.edu.au ) and Rachel L. Harris are affiliated with the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Tasmania, in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. James N. Mills is affiliated with the Special Pathogens Branch of the Division of Viral and Rickettsial Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Population Biology, Ecology, and Evolution Group at Emory University, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cheryl A. Parmenter is affiliated with the Museum of Southwestern Biology in the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Robert R. Parmenter is affiliated with the Department of the Interior (National Park Service), in Jemez Springs, New Mexico. Kyle Richardson is affiliated with the Hopkirk Research Institute, at Massey University, in Palmerston North, New Zealand. SC, KR, Richard J. Douglass, and Amy J. Kuenzi are affiliated with the Department of Biology at Montana Tech of the University of Montana, in Butte. Angela D. Luis is affiliated with the College of Forestry and Conservation at the University of Montana, in Missoula.
authors.forename: Angela D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Luis
keywords: Peromyscus maniculatus; Sin Nombre virus; emerging infectious disease; hantavirus pulmonary syndrome; human–reservoir interactions