title: Utility of Prediction Scores for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Treated with Nucleos(t)ide Analogues.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The utility of risk scores to predict the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) remains to be elucidated.
  
  
  METHODS
  CU-HCC (The Chinese University of Hong Kong-HCC) and GAG-HCC (Guide with Age, Gender, HBV DNA, Core promoter mutations and Cirrhosis) scores of 225 Japanese patients treated with NAs for at least 2 years were calculated before and 2 years after the NA treatment. According to the cutoff values, the patients were categorized into high-score or low-score groups.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Sixteen of 225 patients developed HCC. Patients with a high score before the NA treatment showed a significantly higher HCC incidence than those with a low score using both score models (p < 0.001). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analyses based on scores before and 2 years after the NA treatment showed that both models exhibited moderate accuracy in predicting HCC development. The HCC incidence was significantly lower in the patients whose scores decreased below the cutoff values in response to the NA treatment than in those whose scores remained high using both models (p < 0.01).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The predictive performance of the CU-HCC and GAG-HCC scores in the CHB patients treated with NAs is comparable to that in the NA-naive patients. The patients with sustained high scores after the NA treatment showed a higher incidence of HCC development.
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology and Nephrology, Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan.
authors.forename: Akinobu
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Tawada
authors.forename: Tetsuhiro
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Chiba
authors.forename: Tomoko
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Saito
authors.forename: Sadahida
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ogasawara
authors.forename: Eiichiro
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Suzuki
authors.forename: Yoshihiko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ooka
authors.forename: Makoto
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Arai
authors.forename: Tatsuo
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kanda
authors.forename: Masami
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Shinozaki
authors.forename: Nobuaki
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Goto
authors.forename: Kengo
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nagashima
authors.forename: Osamu
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Yokosuka
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001663:Bilirubin / Q000097:blood; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy*; D002681:China; D004279:DNA, Viral / Q000097:blood; D005260:Female; D005838:Genotype; D006515:Hepatitis B virus / Q000235:genetics; D019694:Hepatitis B, Chronic / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000235:genetics / Q000473:pathology*; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000473:pathology; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D011401:Promoter Regions, Genetic / Q000235:genetics; D012306:Risk; D012709:Serum Albumin / Q000032:analysis; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D004279:DNA, Viral; D012709:Serum Albumin; D001663:Bilirubin