title: The risk of allowing blood donation from men having sex with men after a temporary deferral: predictions versus reality.
abstract: In most industrialized countries, men who had sex with men (MSM) are permanently deferred from blood donation. Some countries have adopted a temporary deferral after the MSM behavior, thus avoiding donations made during the window period of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. However, one concern with this approach is the possible increase in the number of HIV-positive donations obtained from unknowingly infected, abstinent MSM; such donations might inadvertently be made available for transfusion, a risk that was previously estimated through mathematical modeling.
  
  
  
  Model predictions were compared to the actual donor rate of HIV in three countries that went from a permanent to a temporary deferral: Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada.
  
  
  
  Depending on the model, a temporary deferral should have increased the rate of HIV in the male donor pool by 73% to more than 3400%. In reality, the very low baseline rate of HIV before the change in these three countries (22 cases/year) remained unchanged 2 years after the revised policy (16 cases/year).
  
  
  
  These observations strongly suggest that a temporary deferral for MSM incurs zero risk to recipients, at least in jurisdictions where HIV epidemiology is comparable to that of countries where the change happened.
authors.affiliation: Héma-Québec, Quebec, Quebec, Canada.
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Germain
mesh_terms: D001315:Australia; D001782:Blood Donors; D001803:Blood Transfusion / Q000592:standards; D002170:Canada; D046148:Donor Selection / Q000379:methods*; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D018451:Homosexuality, Male; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012306:Risk; D065227:Transfusion Reaction; D006113:United Kingdom