title: Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050.
  
  
  METHODS
  For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in south and east Asia. Adoption of climate-stabilisation pathways would reduce the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71%, depending on their stringency.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The health effects of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be substantial, and exceed other climate-related health impacts that have been estimated. Climate change mitigation could prevent many climate-related deaths. Strengthening of public health programmes aimed at preventing and treating diet and weight-related risk factors could be a suitable climate change adaptation strategy.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food.
authors.affiliation: Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. Electronic address: marco.springmann@dph.ox.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Springmann
authors.affiliation: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, USA.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Mason-D'Croz
authors.affiliation: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, USA.
authors.forename: Sherman
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Robinson
authors.affiliation: Food Climate Research Network, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Tara
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Garnett
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: H Charles J
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Godfray
authors.affiliation: Oxford Department of International Development, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Douglas
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Gollin
authors.affiliation: Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Mike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rayner
authors.affiliation: Oxford Department of International Development, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Paola
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Ballon
authors.affiliation: Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Scarborough
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000639:trends; D001835:Body Weight / Q000502:physiology; D002423:Cause of Death / Q000639:trends; D057231:Climate Change; D019049:Developed Countries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003906:Developing Countries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004032:Diet / Q000639:trends; D002149:Energy Intake; D005523:Food Supply; D014943:Global Health / Q000639:trends*; D006304:Health Status; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors