title: Risk analysis for dengue suitability in Africa using the ArcGIS predictive analysis tools (PA tools).
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Risk maps identifying suitable locations for infection transmission are important for public health planning. Data on dengue infection rates are not readily available in most places where the disease is known to occur.
  
  
  METHODS
  A newly available add-in to Esri's ArcGIS software package, the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Toolset (PA Tools), was used to identify locations within Africa with environmental characteristics likely to be suitable for transmission of dengue virus.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A more accurate, robust, and localized (1 km × 1 km) dengue risk map for Africa was created based on bioclimatic layers, elevation data, high-resolution population data, and other environmental factors that a search of the peer-reviewed literature showed to be associated with dengue risk. Variables related to temperature, precipitation, elevation, and population density were identified as good predictors of dengue suitability. Areas of high dengue suitability occur primarily within West Africa and parts of Central Africa and East Africa, but even in these regions the suitability is not homogenous.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This risk mapping technique for an infection transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes draws on entomological, epidemiological, and geographic data. The method could be applied to other infectious diseases (such as Zika) in order to provide new insights for public health officials and others making decisions about where to increase disease surveillance activities and implement infection prevention and control efforts. The ability to map threats to human and animal health is important for tracking vectorborne and other emerging infectious diseases and modeling the likely impacts of climate change.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and GeoInformation Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 6C3, Fairfax, VA 22030-4444, USA; Esri, 8615 Westwood Center Drive, Vienna, VA 22182, USA. Electronic address: dattaway@esri.com.
authors.forename: David F
authors.initials: DF
authors.lastname: Attaway
authors.affiliation: Department of Global and Community Health, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 5B7, Fairfax, VA 22030-4444, USA.
authors.forename: Kathryn H
authors.initials: KH
authors.lastname: Jacobsen
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and GeoInformation Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 6C3, Fairfax, VA 22030-4444, USA.
authors.forename: Allan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Falconer
authors.affiliation: Laboratory for Geoinformatics and Earth Observations, Department of Geography and Institute for Cyberscience, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
authors.forename: Germana
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Manca
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and GeoInformation Science, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 6C3, Fairfax, VA 22030-4444, USA; Institute of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Calgary, 3280Hospital Drive NW, Calgary, AB T2 N 4Z6, Canada.
authors.forename: Nigel M
authors.initials: NM
authors.lastname: Waters
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000821:virology; D000349:Africa; D000818:Animals; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D003716:Dengue Virus / Q000302:isolation & purification; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology; D011156:Population Density; D011634:Public Health; D012307:Risk Factors; D012984:Software
keywords: Africa; Dengue; Developing countries; Geographic information systems; Medical geography; Risk mapping