title: Pancreatic cysts in general population on ultrasonography: Prevalence and development of risk score.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Pancreatic cysts are related to the presence of ductal adenocarcinomas elsewhere in the pancreas, and are also associated with an increased risk of pancreatic adenocarcinoma in the future. Most of the previous studies that investigated the prevalence of pancreatic cysts focused on patients within a hospital or out-patient setting, which may not be representative of the general population. We investigated the prevalence and predictive factors for the presence of pancreatic cysts within a large number of subjects via general health examination.
  
  
  METHODS
  Between December 2007 and December 2013, a total of 5198 subjects were enrolled that underwent ultrasonography (US) on general health examination. We established a scoring system for predicting the presence of one or more pancreatic cysts using a split-sample method.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among the enrolled subjects, the prevalence of a pancreatic cyst was 3.5 %. In multivariate analysis, the prevalence was significantly increased with older age, female sex, and the presence of gall bladder adenomyomatosis (GB-ADM). Based on multivariate analysis in the training sample (n = 2,599), we established the scoring system consisting of age, sex, and the presence of GB-ADM to predict the presence of pancreatic cysts. This scoring system was validated in the testing sample (n = 2,599) and produced an area under the curve of 0.711.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The prevalence of pancreatic cyst detected by US was 3.5 % in the general population, and increased with age, female sex, and the presence of GB-ADM. A new scoring system developed in the present study may help to identify better candidates for further examination when the pancreas is not visible by US.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Laboratory, The University of Tokyo Hospital, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.|Department of Biofunctional Informatics, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Yoko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Soroida
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Laboratory, The University of Tokyo Hospital, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan. satoma-int@h.u-tokyo.ac.jp.|Department of Gastroenterology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. satoma-int@h.u-tokyo.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Masaya
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sato
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Laboratory, The University of Tokyo Hospital, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
authors.forename: Hiromi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hikita
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Laboratory, The University of Tokyo Hospital, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
authors.forename: Shu
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hagiwara
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Laboratory, The University of Tokyo Hospital, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
authors.forename: Mamiko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sato
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Laboratory, The University of Tokyo Hospital, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
authors.forename: Hiroaki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Gotoh
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Laboratory, The University of Tokyo Hospital, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
authors.forename: Sachiko
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kato
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Laboratory, The University of Tokyo Hospital, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.
authors.forename: Tomomi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Iwai
authors.affiliation: Center for Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Tsutomu
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Yamazaki
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Laboratory, The University of Tokyo Hospital, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.|Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Yutaka
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yatomi
authors.affiliation: Department of Biofunctional Informatics, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Tetsuo
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sasano
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Laboratory, The University of Tokyo Hospital, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan.|Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Hitoshi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ikeda
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D005705:Gallbladder Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010181:Pancreatic Cyst / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000473:pathology; D015995:Prevalence; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D014463:Ultrasonography
keywords: Adenomyomatosis; General population; Pancreatic cyst; Scoring system; Ultrasonography