title: Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.
abstract: Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g., via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle and swine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventing outbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of market disruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on position along the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggest that trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks, which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. We assess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions from the perspectives of regulators and the market, using percolation analysis. We show that preferentially targeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when the costs to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Our study highlights the importance of assessing joint economic-epidemiological risks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade.
authors.affiliation: MaIAGE, INRA, Université Paris-Saclay, Jouy-en-Josas 78350, France Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK AgroParisTech, Paris 75005, France mathieu@moslonkalefebvre.com.
authors.forename: Mathieu
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9841-9384
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Moslonka-Lefebvre
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK.
authors.forename: Christopher A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Gilligan
authors.affiliation: MaIAGE, INRA, Université Paris-Saclay, Jouy-en-Josas 78350, France.
authors.forename: Hervé
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8225-495X
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Monod
authors.affiliation: INRA, UMR1300 Biologie, Epidémiologie et Analyse de Risques en santé animale, CS 40706, Nantes 44307, France LUNAM Université, Oniris, Ecole nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique, UMR BioEpAR, Nantes 44307, France.
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Belloc
authors.affiliation: INRA, UMR1300 Biologie, Epidémiologie et Analyse de Risques en santé animale, CS 40706, Nantes 44307, France LUNAM Université, Oniris, Ecole nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique, UMR BioEpAR, Nantes 44307, France.
authors.forename: Pauline
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0034-8950
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Ezanno
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK Integrative Animal Science, School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK.
authors.forename: João A N
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Filipe
authors.affiliation: MaIAGE, INRA, Université Paris-Saclay, Jouy-en-Josas 78350, France.
authors.forename: Elisabeta
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Vergu
mesh_terms: D000820:Animal Diseases / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D058751:Livestock; D008954:Models, Biological; D018803:Models, Economic
keywords: animal trade networks; disease prevention; economic epidemiology; livestock; multiple-criteria decision analyses; risk-based surveillance