title: Is Sex Like Driving? HIV Prevention and Risk Compensation.
abstract: Risk compensation has been called the "Achilles' heel" of HIV prevention policies (Cassell et al 2006). This paper examines the behavioral response to male circumcision, a major HIV prevention policy currently being implemented throughout much of Sub-Saharan Africa. Contrary to the presumption of risk compensation, we find that the response due to the perceived reduction in HIV transmission appears to have been a reduction in risky sexual behavior. We suggest a mechanism for this finding: circumcision may reduce fatalism about acquiring HIV/AIDS and increase the salience of the tradeoff between engaging in additional risky behavior and avoiding acquiring HIV. We also find what appears to be a competing effect that does not operate through the circumcision recipient's belief about the reduction in the risk of acquiring HIV.
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, Reed College.
authors.forename: Nicholas L
authors.initials: NL
authors.lastname: Wilson
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, Harvard University.
authors.forename: Wentao
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Xiong
authors.affiliation: (Formerly) School of Public Health, University of Illinois, Chicago.
authors.forename: Christine L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Mattson
keywords: HIV/AIDS; Kenya; beliefs; male circumcision; risk compensation