title: The pace of plant community change is accelerating in remnant prairies.
abstract: Patterns of biodiversity are changing rapidly. "Legacy studies" use historical data to document changes between past and present communities, revealing long-term trends that can often be linked to particular drivers of ecological change. However, a single pair of historical samples cannot ascertain whether rates of change are consistent or whether the impact and identity of drivers have shifted. Using data from a second resurvey of 47 Wisconsin prairie remnants, we show that the pace of community change has increased with shifts in the strength of particular drivers. Annual rates of local colonization and extinction accelerated by 129 and 214%, respectively, between 1950 and 1987 and between 1987 and 2012. Two anthropogenic drivers-patch area and fire history-increased in importance between these periods. As the strength and number of anthropogenic forces increase, rates of biodiversity change are likely to accelerate in other ecosystems as well.
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, 444 Birge Hall, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
authors.forename: Amy O
authors.initials: AO
authors.lastname: Alstad
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, 451 Birge Hall, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
authors.forename: Ellen I
authors.initials: EI
authors.lastname: Damschen
authors.affiliation: Department of Botany, 315 Birge Hall, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
authors.forename: Thomas J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Givnish
authors.affiliation: Department of Landscape Architecture, 25c Agricultural Hall, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
authors.forename: John A
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-7891-7159
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Harrington
authors.affiliation: Integral Sustainability Consulting, N4731 510th Street, Menomonie, WI 54751, USA.
authors.forename: Mark K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Leach
authors.affiliation: Biological Science, 323 Greenquist Hall, University of Wisconsin-Parkside, Kenosha, WI 53144, USA.
authors.forename: David A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Rogers
authors.affiliation: Department of Botany, 232b Birge Hall, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
authors.forename: Donald M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Waller
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005390:Fires; D065948:Grassland; D010944:Plants; D013997:Time Factors; D014922:Wisconsin
keywords: Biodiversity; ecological communities; ecological diversity; ecology; environmental sciences; novelty; plant communities