title: The Impact of Alzheimer's Disease on the Chinese Economy.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Recent increases in life expectancy may greatly expand future Alzheimer's Disease (AD) burdens. China's demographic profile, aging workforce and predicted increasing burden of AD-related care make its economy vulnerable to AD impacts. Previous economic estimates of AD predominantly focus on health system burdens and omit wider whole-economy effects, potentially underestimating the full economic benefit of effective treatment.
  
  
  METHODS
  AD-related prevalence, morbidity and mortality for 2011-2050 were simulated and were, together with associated caregiver time and costs, imposed on a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. Both economic and non-economic outcomes were analyzed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Simulated Chinese AD prevalence quadrupled during 2011-50 from 6-28 million. The cumulative discounted value of eliminating AD equates to China's 2012 GDP (US$8 trillion), and the annual predicted real value approaches US AD cost-of-illness (COI) estimates, exceeding US$1 trillion by 2050 (2011-prices). Lost labor contributes 62% of macroeconomic impacts. Only 10% derives from informal care, challenging previous COI-estimates of 56%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Health and macroeconomic models predict an unfolding 2011-2050 Chinese AD epidemic with serious macroeconomic consequences. Significant investment in research and development (medical and non-medical) is warranted and international researchers and national authorities should therefore target development of effective AD treatment and prevention strategies.
authors.affiliation: Department of Global Health and Development, Faculty of Public Health & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London WC1H 9SH, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Marcus R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Keogh-Brown
authors.affiliation: Global Development Section, Department of Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Henning Tarp
authors.initials: HT
authors.lastname: Jensen
authors.affiliation: Janssen Pharmaceutical Research & Development, LLC, 6500 Paseo Padre Parkway, Fremont, CA 94555, United States.
authors.forename: H Michael
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Arrighi
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Public Health & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Richard D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Smith
mesh_terms: D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology; D002681:China; D017281:Cost of Illness; D059066:Gross Domestic Product; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006801:Humans; D018803:Models, Economic
keywords: AD, Alzheimer's Disease; Alzheimer's Disease; CDR, Clinical Dementia Rating; CGE, Computable General Equilibrium; COI, Cost Of Illness; China; DALYs, Disability Adjusted Life Years; GDP, Gross Domestic Product; GTAP, Global Trade Analysis Project; IADL, Instrumental Activities of Daily Living; Macroeconomic; Modelling; NPV, Net Present Value; PADL, Personal Activities of Daily Living; RMB, Renminbi; SAM, Social Accounting Matrix; YLD, Years Lived with a Disability; YLL, Years of Life Lost; p.a., per annum