title: Nomograms to estimate long-term overall survival and breast cancer-specific survival of patients with luminal breast cancer.
abstract: Luminal breast cancer constitutes a group of highly heterogeneous diseases with a sustained high risk of late recurrence. We aimed to develop comprehensive and practical nomograms to better estimate the long-term survival of luminal breast cancer.Patients with luminal breast cancer diagnosed between 1990 and 2006 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly divided into the training (n = 87,867) and validation (n = 88,215) cohorts. The cumulative incidence function (CIF) and a competing-risks model were used to estimate the probability of breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and death from other causes. We integrated significant prognostic factors to build nomograms and subjected the nomograms to bootstrap internal validation and to external validation.We screened 176,082 luminal breast cancer cases. The 5- and 10-year probabilities of overall death were 0.089 and 0.202, respectively. The 5- and 10-year probabilities of breast cancer-specific mortality (BCSM) were 0.053 and 0.112, respectively. Nine independent prognostic factors for both OS and BCSS were integrated to construct the nomograms. The calibration curves for the probabilities of 5- and 10-year OS and BCSS showed excellent agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-indexes of the nomograms were high in both internal validation (0.732 for OS and 0.800 for BCSS) and external validation (0.731 for OS and 0.794 for BCSS).We established nomograms that accurately predict OS and BCSS for patients with luminal breast cancer. The nomograms can identify patients with higher risk of late overall mortality and BCSM, helping physicians in facilitating individualized treatment.
authors.affiliation: Department of Breast Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.|Cancer Institute, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.|Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Wei
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Department of Breast Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.|Cancer Institute, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.|Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Yi-Zhou
authors.initials: YZ
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.affiliation: Department of Breast Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.|Cancer Institute, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.|Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Yi-Rong
authors.initials: YR
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Breast Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.|Cancer Institute, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.|Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Ding
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.affiliation: Department of Breast Surgery, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.|Cancer Institute, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.|Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, P.R. China.|Institutes of Biomedical Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Zhi-Ming
authors.initials: ZM
authors.lastname: Shao
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy; D018270:Carcinoma, Ductal, Breast / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy; D018275:Carcinoma, Lobular / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D003131:Combined Modality Therapy; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D009361:Neoplasm Invasiveness; D049451:Nomograms; D011379:Prognosis; D018426:SEER Program; D015996:Survival Rate; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: breast cancer-specific survival; luminal breast cancer; nomogram; overall survival