title: Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change.
abstract: For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology (CSIC-Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Barcelona, Spain.|Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Sánchez-Fernández
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology (CSIC-Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Valeria
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Rizzo
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology (CSIC-Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Alexandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cieslak
authors.affiliation: Zoologische Staatsammlung, Muenchhausenstrasse, Munich, Germany.
authors.forename: Arnaud
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Faille
authors.affiliation: Ca de Massa, Llesp - El Pont de Suert, Spain.|Museu de Ciències Naturals, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Javier
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fresneda
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology (CSIC-Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Ignacio
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Ribera
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D001517:Coleoptera / Q000145:classification; D057232:Global Warming; D008954:Models, Biological; D010802:Phylogeny; D013696:Temperature