title: Ontogeny constrains phenology: opportunities for activity and reproduction interact to dictate potential phenologies in a changing climate.
abstract: As global warming has lengthened the active seasons of many species, we need a framework for predicting how advances in phenology shape the life history and the resulting fitness of organisms. Using an individual-based model, we show how warming differently affects annual cycles of development, growth, reproduction and activity in a group of North American lizards. Populations in cold regions can grow and reproduce more when warming lengthens their active season. However, future warming of currently warm regions advances the reproductive season but reduces the survival of embryos and juveniles. Hence, stressful temperatures during summer can offset predicted gains from extended growth seasons and select for lizards that reproduce after the warm summer months. Understanding these cascading effects of climate change may be crucial to predict shifts in the life history and demography of species.
authors.affiliation: School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA.
authors.forename: Ofir
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Levy
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
authors.forename: Lauren B
authors.initials: LB
authors.lastname: Buckley
authors.affiliation: Section of Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, TX, 78712, USA.
authors.forename: Timothy H
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: Keitt
authors.affiliation: School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 85287, USA.
authors.forename: Michael J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Angilletta
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D047108:Embryonic Development; D057232:Global Warming; D008018:Life Cycle Stages; D008116:Lizards / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D009656:North America; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D012098:Reproduction / Q000502:physiology*; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature
keywords: Biophysical model; climate change; embryos; hatchlings; heat events; individual-based model; life cycle; lizards; phenology