title: Applying GIS to develop a model for forest fire risk: A case study in Espírito Santo, Brazil.
abstract: A forest fire risk map is a basic element for planning and protecting forested areas. The main goal of this study was to develop a statistical model for preparing a forest fire risk map using GIS. Such model is based on assigning weights to nine variables divided into two classes: physical factors of the site (terrain slope, land-use/occupation, proximity to roads, terrain orientation, and altitude) and climatic factors (precipitation, temperature, water deficit, and evapotranspiration). In regions where the climate is different from the conditions of this study, the model will require an adjustment of the variables weights according to the local climate. The study area, Espírito Santo State, exhibited approximately 3.81% low risk, 21.18% moderate risk, 30.10% high risk, 41.50% very high risk, and 3.40% extreme risk of forest fire. The areas classified as high risk, very high and extreme, contemplated a total of 78.92% of heat spots.
authors.affiliation: Federal University of Espírito Santo/UFES, PostGraduate Programme in Forest Sciences, Av. Governador Lindemberg, 316, 29550-000 Jerônimo Monteiro, ES, Brazil. Electronic address: coelho.fernando@yahoo.com.br.
authors.forename: Fernando Coelho
authors.initials: FC
authors.lastname: Eugenio
authors.affiliation: Federal University of Espírito Santo/UFES, PostGraduate Programme in Forest Sciences, Av. Governador Lindemberg, 316, 29550-000 Jerônimo Monteiro, ES, Brazil. Electronic address: mundogeomatica@yahoo.com.br.
authors.forename: Alexandre Rosa
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: dos Santos
authors.affiliation: Federal University of Espírito Santo/UFES, PostGraduate Programme in Forest Sciences, Av. Governador Lindemberg, 316, 29550-000 Jerônimo Monteiro, ES, Brazil. Electronic address: fiedler@cnpq.pq.br.
authors.forename: Nilton Cesar
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Fiedler
authors.affiliation: In Memorian, Federal University of Viçosa/UFES, Graduate Program in Forest Science, Avenida P. H. Rolfs, s/n, Campus Universitário, 36570-000 Viçosa, MG, Brazil. Electronic address: gribeiro@ufv.br.
authors.forename: Guido Assunção
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Ribeiro
authors.affiliation: Federal University of Espírito Santo/UFES, PostGraduate Programme in Forest Sciences, Av. Governador Lindemberg, 316, 29550-000 Jerônimo Monteiro, ES, Brazil. Electronic address: agsilva@yahoo.com.br.
authors.forename: Aderbal Gomes
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: da Silva
authors.affiliation: Federal University of Espírito Santo/UFES, PostGraduate Programme in Forest Sciences, Av. Governador Lindemberg, 316, 29550-000 Jerônimo Monteiro, ES, Brazil. Electronic address: aureobs@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Áureo Banhos
authors.initials: ÁB
authors.lastname: dos Santos
authors.affiliation: Federal University of Espírito Santo/UFES, PostGraduate Programme in Forest Sciences, Av. Governador Lindemberg, 316, 29550-000 Jerônimo Monteiro, ES, Brazil. Electronic address: gpaneto@yahoo.com.br.
authors.forename: Greiciane Gaburro
authors.initials: GG
authors.lastname: Paneto
authors.affiliation: Federal University of Espírito Santo/UFES, PostGraduate Programme in Forest Sciences, Av. Governador Lindemberg, 316, 29550-000 Jerônimo Monteiro, ES, Brazil. Electronic address: schettino.vitor@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Vitor Roberto
authors.initials: VR
authors.lastname: Schettino
mesh_terms: D001938:Brazil; D004189:Disaster Planning; D005390:Fires / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D065928:Forests; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012307:Risk Factors; D014197:Trees
keywords: Environmental preservation; Geotechnology; Risk map