title: Assessing 30-day quantity-frequency of U.S. adolescent cigarette smoking as a predictor of adult smoking 14 years later.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To improve measures of monthly tobacco cigarette smoking among non-daily smokers, predictive of future non-daily monthly and daily smoking.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data from United States National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, tracking adolescents, ages 12-21, over 14 years were analyzed. At baseline, 6501 adolescents were assessed; 5114 individuals provided data at waves 1 and 4. Baseline past 30-day non-daily smokers were classified using quantity-frequency measures: cigarettes smoked/day by number of days smoked in the past 30 days.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Three categories of past 30-day non-daily smokers emerged using cigarettes/month (low:1-5, moderate: 6-60, high: 61+) and predicted past 30-day smoking at follow-up (low: 44.5%, moderate: 60.0%, high: 77.0%, versus 74.2% daily smokers; rτ=-0.2319, p<0.001). Two categories of non-smokers plus low, moderate and high categories of non-daily smokers made up a five-category non-daily smoking index (NDSI). High NDSI (61+ cigs/mo.) and daily smokers were equally likely to be smoking 14 years later (High NDSI OR=0.97, 95% CI=0.53-1.80 [daily as reference]). Low (1-5 cigs/mo.) and moderate (6-60 cigs/mo.) NDSI were distinctly different from high NDSI, but similar to one another (OR=0.21, 95% CI=0.15-0.29 and OR=0.22, 95% CI=0.14-0.34, respectively) when estimating future monthly smoking. Among those smoking at both waves, wave 1 non-daily smokers, overall, were less likely than wave 1 daily smokers to be smoking daily 14 years later.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Non-daily smokers smoking over three packs/month were as likely as daily smokers to be smoking 14-years later. Lower levels of non-daily smoking (at ages 12-21) predicted lower likelihood of future monthly smoking. In terms of surveillance and cessation interventions, high NDSI smokers might be treated similar to daily smokers.
authors.affiliation: University at Buffalo, State University of New York, School of Public Health and Health Professions, Department of Community Health and Health Behavior, Buffalo, NY, USA. Electronic address: mls38@buffalo.edu.
authors.forename: M L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Saddleson
authors.affiliation: University at Buffalo, State University of New York, School of Public Health and Health Professions, Department of Community Health and Health Behavior, Buffalo, NY, USA.
authors.forename: L T
authors.initials: LT
authors.lastname: Kozlowski
authors.affiliation: University at Buffalo, State University of New York, School of Public Health and Health Professions, Department of Community Health and Health Behavior, Buffalo, NY, USA.
authors.forename: G A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Giovino
authors.affiliation: University at Buffalo, State University of New York, School of Public Health and Health Professions, Department of Community Health and Health Behavior, Buffalo, NY, USA.
authors.forename: G G
authors.initials: GG
authors.lastname: Homish
authors.affiliation: University at Buffalo, State University of New York, School of Public Health and Health Professions, Department of Community Health and Health Behavior, Buffalo, NY, USA; Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Department of Medicine and Department of Health Behavior, Buffalo, NY, USA.
authors.forename: M C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Mahoney
authors.affiliation: Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Department of Health Behavior, Buffalo, NY, USA.
authors.forename: M L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Goniewicz
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000294:Adolescent Behavior; D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D016017:Odds Ratio; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Adolescents; Future smoking; Longitudinal; Non-daily smoking; Tobacco cigarette smoking