title: Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.
abstract: As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tas., 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Martin Pierre
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Marzloff
authors.affiliation: Department of the Environment, Australian Antarctic Division, Channel Highway, Kingston, Tas., 7005, Australia.|Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tas., 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Jessica
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Melbourne-Thomas
authors.affiliation: LEI - Wageningen UR, PO Box 29703, 2502 LS, 'S Gravenhage, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Katell G
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Hamon
authors.affiliation: Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 84, Hobart, Tas., 7001, Australia.|CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tas., 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Eriko
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Hoshino
authors.affiliation: Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 84, Hobart, Tas., 7001, Australia.|Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas., 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Jennings
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tas., 7001, Australia.|Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas., 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Ingrid E
authors.initials: IE
authors.lastname: van Putten
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tas., 7001, Australia.|Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tas., 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Gretta T
authors.initials: GT
authors.lastname: Pecl
mesh_terms: D059001:Aquatic Organisms; D001315:Australia; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D008962:Models, Theoretical
keywords: climate change; management support tool; qualitative modelling of system feedback; qualitative network models; range shifts; temperate reef; trophic cascade; tropicalisation