title: AN "ENVIRO-INFORMATIC" ASSESSMENT OF SAGINAW BAY (LAKE HURON, USA) PHYTOPLANKTON: DATA-DRIVEN CHARACTERIZATION AND MODELING OF MICROCYSTIS (CYANOPHYTA)(1).
abstract: Phytoplankton and Microcystis aeruginosa (Kütz.) Kütz. biovolumes were characterized and modeled, respectively, with regard to hydrological and meteorological variables during zebra mussel invasion in Saginaw Bay (1990-1996). Total phytoplankton and Microcystis biomass within the inner bay were one and one-half and six times greater, respectively, than those of the outer bay. Following mussel invasion, mean total biomass in the inner bay decreased 84% but then returned to its approximate initial value. Microcystis was not present in the bay during 1990 and 1991 and thereafter occurred at/in 52% of sample sites/dates with the greatest biomass occurring in 1994-1996 and within months having water temperatures >19°C. With an overall relative biomass of 0.03 ± 0.01 (mean + SE), Microcystis had, at best, a marginal impact upon holistic compositional dynamics. Dynamics of the centric diatom Cyclotella ocellata Pant. and large pennate diatoms dominated compositional dissimilarities both inter- and intra-annually. The environmental variables that corresponded with phytoplankton distributions were similar for the inner and outer bays, and together identified physical forcing and biotic utilization of nutrients as determinants of system-level biomass patterns. Nonparametric models explained 70%-85% of the variability in Microcystis biovolumes and identified maximal biomass to occur at total phosphorus (TP) concentrations ranging from 40 to 45 μg · L(-1) . From isometric projections depicting modeled Microcystis/environmental interactions, a TP concentration of <30 μg · L(-1) was identified as a desirable contemporary "target" for management efforts to ameliorate bloom potentials throughout mussel-impacted bay waters.
authors.affiliation: Florida Institute of Oceanography, University of South Florida & Florida Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish & Wildlife Commission, Saint Petersburg, Florida 33701, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory-Lake Michigan Field Station, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Muskegon, Michigan 49441, USADepartment of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio 45701, USAOld Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve, Ohio Department of Natural Resources, 2514 Cleveland Rd., West, Huron, Ohio 44839, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105, USABCS, Incorporated, 8920 Stephens Rd., Laurel, Maryland 20723, USA.
authors.forename: David F
authors.initials: DF
authors.lastname: Millie
authors.affiliation: Florida Institute of Oceanography, University of South Florida & Florida Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish & Wildlife Commission, Saint Petersburg, Florida 33701, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory-Lake Michigan Field Station, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Muskegon, Michigan 49441, USADepartment of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio 45701, USAOld Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve, Ohio Department of Natural Resources, 2514 Cleveland Rd., West, Huron, Ohio 44839, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105, USABCS, Incorporated, 8920 Stephens Rd., Laurel, Maryland 20723, USA.
authors.forename: Gary L
authors.initials: GL
authors.lastname: Fahnenstiel
authors.affiliation: Florida Institute of Oceanography, University of South Florida & Florida Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish & Wildlife Commission, Saint Petersburg, Florida 33701, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory-Lake Michigan Field Station, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Muskegon, Michigan 49441, USADepartment of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio 45701, USAOld Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve, Ohio Department of Natural Resources, 2514 Cleveland Rd., West, Huron, Ohio 44839, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105, USABCS, Incorporated, 8920 Stephens Rd., Laurel, Maryland 20723, USA.
authors.forename: Gary R
authors.initials: GR
authors.lastname: Weckman
authors.affiliation: Florida Institute of Oceanography, University of South Florida & Florida Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish & Wildlife Commission, Saint Petersburg, Florida 33701, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory-Lake Michigan Field Station, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Muskegon, Michigan 49441, USADepartment of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio 45701, USAOld Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve, Ohio Department of Natural Resources, 2514 Cleveland Rd., West, Huron, Ohio 44839, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105, USABCS, Incorporated, 8920 Stephens Rd., Laurel, Maryland 20723, USA.
authors.forename: David M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Klarer
authors.affiliation: Florida Institute of Oceanography, University of South Florida & Florida Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish & Wildlife Commission, Saint Petersburg, Florida 33701, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory-Lake Michigan Field Station, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Muskegon, Michigan 49441, USADepartment of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio 45701, USAOld Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve, Ohio Department of Natural Resources, 2514 Cleveland Rd., West, Huron, Ohio 44839, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105, USABCS, Incorporated, 8920 Stephens Rd., Laurel, Maryland 20723, USA.
authors.forename: Julianne
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Dyble
authors.affiliation: Florida Institute of Oceanography, University of South Florida & Florida Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish & Wildlife Commission, Saint Petersburg, Florida 33701, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory-Lake Michigan Field Station, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Muskegon, Michigan 49441, USADepartment of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio 45701, USAOld Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve, Ohio Department of Natural Resources, 2514 Cleveland Rd., West, Huron, Ohio 44839, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105, USABCS, Incorporated, 8920 Stephens Rd., Laurel, Maryland 20723, USA.
authors.forename: Henry A
authors.initials: HA
authors.lastname: Vanderploeg
authors.affiliation: Florida Institute of Oceanography, University of South Florida & Florida Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish & Wildlife Commission, Saint Petersburg, Florida 33701, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory-Lake Michigan Field Station, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Muskegon, Michigan 49441, USADepartment of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Ohio University, Athens, Ohio 45701, USAOld Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve, Ohio Department of Natural Resources, 2514 Cleveland Rd., West, Huron, Ohio 44839, USAGreat Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105, USABCS, Incorporated, 8920 Stephens Rd., Laurel, Maryland 20723, USA.
authors.forename: Daniel B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Fishman
keywords: Laurentian Great Lakes; harmful algal blooms; nonparametric statistics; phosphorus; toxic cyanobacteria