title: Modeling Source Water TOC Using Hydroclimate Variables and Local Polynomial Regression.
abstract: To control disinfection byproduct (DBP) formation in drinking water, an understanding of the source water total organic carbon (TOC) concentration variability can be critical. Previously, TOC concentrations in water treatment plant source waters have been modeled using streamflow data. However, the lack of streamflow data or unimpaired flow scenarios makes it difficult to model TOC. In addition, TOC variability under climate change further exacerbates the problem. Here we proposed a modeling approach based on local polynomial regression that uses climate, e.g. temperature, and land surface, e.g., soil moisture, variables as predictors of TOC concentration, obviating the need for streamflow. The local polynomial approach has the ability to capture non-Gaussian and nonlinear features that might be present in the relationships. The utility of the methodology is demonstrated using source water quality and climate data in three case study locations with surface source waters including river and reservoir sources. The models show good predictive skill in general at these locations, with lower skills at locations with the most anthropogenic influences in their streams. Source water TOC predictive models can provide water treatment utilities important information for making treatment decisions for DBP regulation compliance under future climate scenarios.
authors.affiliation: University of Colorado Boulder , Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering & Applied Science, 428 UCB, 1111 Engineering Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80309-0428, United States.
authors.forename: Carleigh C
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Samson
authors.affiliation: University of Colorado Boulder , Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering & Applied Science, 428 UCB, 1111 Engineering Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80309-0428, United States.
authors.forename: Balaji
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Rajagopalan
authors.affiliation: University of Colorado Boulder , Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering & Applied Science, 428 UCB, 1111 Engineering Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80309-0428, United States.
authors.forename: R Scott
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Summers
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D004203:Disinfection; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012044:Regression Analysis; D045483:Rivers / Q000737:chemistry*; D014481:United States; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*; D018508:Water Purification / Q000379:methods*; D060753:Water Quality
chemical_list: D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical