title: Habitat Suitability Model for the Distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Minnesota.
abstract: Ixodes scapularis Say, the black-legged tick, is the primary vector in the eastern United States of several pathogens causing human diseases including Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. Over the past two decades, I. scapularis-borne diseases have increased in incidence as well as geographic distribution. Lyme disease exists in two major foci in the United States, one encompassing northeastern states and the other in the Upper Midwest. Minnesota represents a state with an appreciable increase in counties reporting I. scapularis-borne illnesses, suggesting geographic expansion of vector populations in recent years. Recent tick distribution records support this assumption. Here, we used those records to create a fine resolution, subcounty-level distribution model for I. scapularis using variable response curves in addition to tests of variable importance. The model identified 19% of Minnesota as potentially suitable for establishment of the tick and indicated with high accuracy (AUC = 0.863) that the distribution is driven by land cover type, summer precipitation, maximum summer temperatures, and annual temperature variation. We provide updated records of established populations near the northwestern species range limit and present a model that increases our understanding of the potential distribution of I. scapularis in Minnesota.
authors.affiliation: Bacterial Diseases Branch, Division of Vector-borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 3156 Rampart Rd, Fort Collins, CO 80521 (uzj6@cdc.gov; dyn2@cdc.gov), uzj6@cdc.gov.
authors.forename: T L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Johnson
authors.affiliation: Minnesota Department of Health, 625 Robert St N, St. Paul, MN 55164 (jenna.bjork@state.mn.us; david.neitzel@state.mn.us; franny.dorr@state.mn.us; elizabeth.schiffman@state.mn.us).
authors.forename: J K H
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Bjork
authors.affiliation: Minnesota Department of Health, 625 Robert St N, St. Paul, MN 55164 (jenna.bjork@state.mn.us; david.neitzel@state.mn.us; franny.dorr@state.mn.us; elizabeth.schiffman@state.mn.us).
authors.forename: D F
authors.initials: DF
authors.lastname: Neitzel
authors.affiliation: Minnesota Department of Health, 625 Robert St N, St. Paul, MN 55164 (jenna.bjork@state.mn.us; david.neitzel@state.mn.us; franny.dorr@state.mn.us; elizabeth.schiffman@state.mn.us).
authors.forename: F M
authors.initials: FM
authors.lastname: Dorr
authors.affiliation: Minnesota Department of Health, 625 Robert St N, St. Paul, MN 55164 (jenna.bjork@state.mn.us; david.neitzel@state.mn.us; franny.dorr@state.mn.us; elizabeth.schiffman@state.mn.us).
authors.forename: E K
authors.initials: EK
authors.lastname: Schiffman
authors.affiliation: Bacterial Diseases Branch, Division of Vector-borne Diseases, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 3156 Rampart Rd, Fort Collins, CO 80521 (uzj6@cdc.gov; dyn2@cdc.gov).
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Eisen
mesh_terms: D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D017753:Ecosystem; D018884:Ixodes / Q000502:physiology*; D008910:Minnesota; D008954:Models, Biological
keywords: Ixodes scapularis; Lyme disease; Maxent; species distribution model