title: Prediction of biological sensors appearance with ARIMA models as a tool for Integrated Pest Management protocols.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Powdery mildew caused by Uncinula necator and Downy mildew produced by Plasmopara viticola are the most common diseases in the North-West Spain vineyards. Knowledge of airborne spore concentrations could be a useful tool in the Integrated Pest Management protocols in order to reduce the number of pesticide treatments, applied only when there is a real risk of infection.
  
  
  METHODS
  The study was carried out in a vineyard of the D. O. Ribeiro, in the North-West Spain, during the grapevine active period 2004-2012. A Hirts-type volumetric spore-trap was used for the aerobiological monitoring.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the study period the annual total U. necator spores amount ranged from the 578 spores registered in 2007 to the 4,145 spores sampled during 2008. The highest annual total P. viticola spores quantity was observed in 2010 (1,548 spores) and the lowest in 2005 (210 spores). In order to forecast the concentration of fungal spores, ARIMA models were elaborated.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The most accurate models were an ARIMA (3.1.3) for U. necator and (1.0.3) for P. viticola. The possibility to forecast the spore presence 72 hours in advance open an important horizon for optimizing the organization of the harvest processes in the vineyard.
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Biology and Soil Sciences, Sciences Faculty of Ourense, University of Vigo, Ourense, Spain.
authors.forename: María
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fernández-González
authors.affiliation: Department of Informatics, University of Vigo, Ourense, Spain.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Ramos-Valcárcel
authors.affiliation: Department of Botany, Pharmacy Faculty, University of Santiago of Compostela, Santiago of Compostela, Spain.
authors.forename: María Jesús
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Aira
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Biology and Soil Sciences, Sciences Faculty of Ourense, University of Vigo, Ourense, Spain.
authors.forename: Francisco Javier
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Rodríguez-Rajo
mesh_terms: D001203:Ascomycota / Q000502:physiology; D015374:Biosensing Techniques / Q000379:methods*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000295:instrumentation / Q000379:methods*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009868:Oomycetes / Q000502:physiology; D010571:Pest Control / Q000295:instrumentation / Q000379:methods*; D010935:Plant Diseases / Q000382:microbiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012621:Seasons; D013030:Spain; D013172:Spores, Fungal / Q000502:physiology; D027843:Vitis / Q000382:microbiology*