title: Fitting the Incidence Data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, Based on Dengue Transmission Modellings Considering Time-Dependent Entomological Parameters.
abstract: Four time-dependent dengue transmission models are considered in order to fit the incidence data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, recorded from October 1st 1995 to September 30th 2012. The entomological parameters are allowed to depend on temperature and precipitation, while the carrying capacity and the hatching of eggs depend only on precipitation. The whole period of incidence of dengue is split into four periods, due to the fact that the model is formulated considering the circulation of only one serotype. Dengue transmission parameters from human to mosquito and mosquito to human are fitted for each one of the periods. The time varying partial and overall effective reproduction numbers are obtained to explain the incidence of dengue provided by the models.
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Matemática e Computação Científica (IMECC), Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Hyun Mo
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Matemática e Computação Científica (IMECC), Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: José Luiz
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Boldrini
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Matemática e Computação Científica (IMECC), Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP, Brazil.|Instituto de Matemática e Computação (IMC), Universidade Federal de Itajubá (UNIFEI), Itajubá, MG, Brazil.
authors.forename: Artur César
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Fassoni
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Matemática e Computação Científica (IMECC), Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Luiz Fernando Souza
authors.initials: LF
authors.lastname: Freitas
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Matemática e Computação Científica (IMECC), Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Miller Ceron
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Gomez
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Matemática e Computação Científica (IMECC), Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Karla Katerine Barboza
authors.initials: KK
authors.lastname: de Lima
authors.affiliation: Superintendencia de Controle de Endemias (SUCEN), Campinas, SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Valmir Roberto
authors.initials: VR
authors.lastname: Andrade
authors.affiliation: Coordenadoria de Vigilância Sanitária (COVISA), Campinas, SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: André Ricardo Ribas
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Freitas
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000821:virology; D000818:Animals; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D002980:Climate; D003715:Dengue / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007303:Insect Vectors; D008962:Models, Theoretical