title: A Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment for Salmonella in Pigs for the European Union.
abstract: A farm-to-consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for Salmonella in pigs in the European Union has been developed for the European Food Safety Authority. The primary aim of the QMRA was to assess the impact of hypothetical reductions of slaughter-pig prevalence and the impact of control measures on the risk of human Salmonella infection. A key consideration during the QMRA development was the characterization of variability between E.U. Member States (MSs), and therefore a generic MS model was developed that accounts for differences in pig production, slaughterhouse practices, and consumption patterns. To demonstrate the parameterization of the model, four case study MSs were selected that illustrate the variability in production of pork meat and products across MSs. For the case study MSs the average probability of illness was estimated to be between 1 in 100,000 and 1 in 10 million servings given consumption of one of the three product types considered (pork cuts, minced meat, and fermented ready-to-eat sausages). Further analyses of the farm-to-consumption QMRA suggest that the vast majority of human risk derives from infected pigs with a high concentration of Salmonella in their feces (≥10(4) CFU/g). Therefore, it is concluded that interventions should be focused on either decreasing the level of Salmonella in the feces of infected pigs, the introduction of a control step at the abattoir to reduce the transfer of feces to the exterior of the pig, or a control step to reduce the level of Salmonella on the carcass post-evisceration.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) Weybridge, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Emma L
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Snary
authors.affiliation: RIVM - Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Arno N
authors.initials: AN
authors.lastname: Swart
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) Weybridge, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Robin R L
authors.initials: RR
authors.lastname: Simons
authors.affiliation: Food-DTU - National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Mørkhøj Bygade, Søborg, Denmark.
authors.forename: Ana Rita Calado
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Domingues
authors.affiliation: Food-DTU - National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Mørkhøj Bygade, Søborg, Denmark.
authors.forename: Hakan
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Vigre
authors.affiliation: RIVM - Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Eric G
authors.initials: EG
authors.lastname: Evers
authors.affiliation: Food-DTU - National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Mørkhøj Bygade, Søborg, Denmark.
authors.forename: Tine
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hald
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) Weybridge, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Andrew A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Hill
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry; D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control; D005062:European Union; D000072480:Farms; D005506:Food Contamination / Q000032:analysis; D005511:Food Handling; D005516:Food Microbiology; D059022:Food Safety; D006801:Humans; D008461:Meat Products / Q000382:microbiology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011786:Quality Control; D000069466:Red Meat / Q000382:microbiology; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012478:Salmonella Food Poisoning / Q000517:prevention & control*; D012481:Salmonella Infections, Animal / Q000635:transmission*; D013552:Swine / Q000382:microbiology*; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000382:microbiology
keywords: Europe; Salmonella; pigs; risk assessment