title: DELirium Prediction Based on Hospital Information (Delphi) in General Surgery Patients.
abstract: To develop a simple and accurate delirium prediction score that would allow identification of individuals with a high probability of postoperative delirium on the basis of preoperative and immediate postoperative data.Postoperative delirium, although transient, is associated with adverse outcomes after surgery. However, there has been no appropriate tool to predict postoperative delirium.This was a prospective observational single-center study, which consisted of the development of the DELirium Prediction based on Hospital Information (Delphi) score (n = 561) and its validation (n = 533). We collected potential risk factors for postoperative delirium, which were identified by conducting a comprehensive review of the literatures.Age, low physical activity, hearing impairment, heavy alcoholism, history of prior delirium, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, emergency surgery, open surgery, and increased preoperative C-reactive protein were identified as independent predictors of postoperative delirium. The Delphi score was generated using logistic regression coefficients. The maximum Delphi score was 15 and the optimal cut-off point identified with the Youden index was 6.5. Generated area under the (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.911 (95% CI: 0.88-0.94). In the validation study, the calculated AUC of the ROC curve based on the Delphi score was 0.938 (95% Cl: 0.91-0.97). We divided the validation cohort into the low-risk group (Delphi score 0-6) and high-risk group (7-15). Sensitivity of Delphi score was 80.8% and specificity 92.5%.Our proposed Delphi score could help health-care provider to predict the development of delirium and make possible targeted intervention to prevent delirium in high-risk surgery patients.
authors.affiliation: From the Department of Nursing (MYK), Ulsan University, Ulsan, Korea; and Department of Surgery (UJP, HTK, WHC), Dongsan Medical Center, Keimyung University, Daegu, Korea.
authors.forename: Min Young
authors.initials: MY
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Ui Jun
authors.initials: UJ
authors.lastname: Park
authors.forename: Hyoung Tae
authors.initials: HT
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Won Hyun
authors.initials: WH
authors.lastname: Cho
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D019540:Area Under Curve; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003693:Delirium / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D003697:Delphi Technique; D005260:Female; D006751:Hospital Information Systems; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D011336:Probability; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D012307:Risk Factors; D013514:Surgical Procedures, Operative