title: Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature risk surfaces.
abstract: We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1.6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.6 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
authors.forename: Ander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wilson
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA.
authors.forename: Brian J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Reich
authors.affiliation: US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
authors.forename: Christopher G
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Nolte
authors.affiliation: US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
authors.forename: Tanya L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Spero
authors.affiliation: US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, Health and Environmental Impacts Division, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
authors.forename: Bryan
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Hubbell
authors.affiliation: US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA.
authors.forename: Ana G
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Rappold
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000032:analysis; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000032:analysis; D000818:Animals; D002947:Cities; D057231:Climate Change / Q000401:mortality*; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010126:Ozone / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000032:analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014505:Urban Population
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D010126:Ozone