title: Predictions Burden of Diabetes and Economics Cost: Contributing Risk Factors of Changing Disease Prevalence and its Pandemic Impact to Qatar.
abstract: Background:The Middle East region is predicted to have one of the highest prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in the world. The risk of diabetes continues to increase worldwide and its public health burden is unevenly distributed across socioeconomic strata. This burden is not only related to health care costs, but also to indirect costs caused by loss of productivity from disability and premature mortality.Aim:This study aims to estimate the economics cost of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus [T2DM] among adults in Qatar using national data, and to quantify the potential effect of a suggested preventive intervention program.Design:It is an observational cohort study.Setting:The survey was based on registry at the Hamad General Hospital and Primary Health Care (PHC) centers in the State of Qatar.Subject:This study consisted of patients above 25 years of age with diagnosed diabetes mellitus registered at Hamad General Hospital and Primary Health Care (PHC) centers during January 2004 to July 2014.Methods:We developed a dynamic model in which actual incidence, prevalence, and life expectancy data are used and alternative assumptions about future trends in these parameters can be incorporated. Linear regression model has been performed to forecast the burden of diabetes in oil-rich country.Results:According to the dynamic model, a 10% increased in the number of diabetic patients in the State of Qatar from 33 610 in 2005 to 122 000 in 2012 (about 1% annually). The annual diabetes incidence rate was higher in women than in men during a period between 2005 to 2015 years. The static model forecasted as 10% increase over 10 years. The relative increase in prevalence of diabetes and number of diabetic people are higher in women than in men (16.6%; 17.5% and 18.4% in men vs. 22.6%; 23.8% and 25.1% in women). Most of the increase in prevalence of diabetes is projected to occur in younger age groups where it is estimated to increase among age groups of 50-59 years and above 60 years, respectively.Conclusion:The burden of diabetes in Qatar is markedly larger than proposed by IDF estimations - suggesting that Qatar would be one of the top 10 countries worldwide in diabetes prevalence. Family history of diabetes, consanguinity marriages', hereditary gene-environment interactions, poor nutrition in utero and in early life plus over nutrition in later life may also contribute to the current diabetes epidemic in Qatari's Arab populations. Finally, continuous training of primary health care professionals on diabetes care and prevention is an essential tool of improving diabetes in Qatar.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics & Medical Informatics, Cerrahpaşa Faculty of Medicine, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bener
authors.affiliation: Qatar Diabetic Association and Qatar Foundation, Doha, State of Qatar.
authors.forename: A O A A
authors.initials: AO
authors.lastname: Al-Hamaq
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017281:Cost of Illness; D016208:Databases, Factual; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000628:therapy; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018803:Models, Economic; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015995:Prevalence; D011780:Qatar / Q000453:epidemiology