title: Enteric disease episodes and the risk of acquiring a future sexually transmitted infection: a prediction model in Montreal residents.
abstract: The sexual transmission of enteric diseases poses an important public health challenge. We aimed to build a prediction model capable of identifying individuals with a reported enteric disease who could be at risk of acquiring future sexually transmitted infections (STIs).
  
  
  
  Passive surveillance data on Montreal residents with at least 1 enteric disease report was used to construct the prediction model. Cases were defined as all subjects with at least 1 STI report following their initial enteric disease episode. A final logistic regression prediction model was chosen using forward stepwise selection.
  
  
  
  The prediction model with the greatest validity included age, sex, residential location, number of STI episodes experienced prior to the first enteric disease episode, type of enteric disease acquired, and an interaction term between age and male sex. This model had an area under the curve of 0.77 and had acceptable calibration.
  
  
  
  A coordinated public health response to the sexual transmission of enteric diseases requires that a distinction be made between cases of enteric diseases transmitted through sexual activity from those transmitted through contaminated food or water. A prediction model can aid public health officials in identifying individuals who may have a higher risk of sexually acquiring a reportable disease. Once identified, these individuals could receive specialized intervention to prevent future infection.
  
  
  
  The information produced from a prediction model capable of identifying higher risk individuals can be used to guide efforts in investigating and controlling reported cases of enteric diseases and STIs.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, 1020 Pine Ave West, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H3A 1A2.
authors.forename: Melissa
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Caron
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, 1020 Pine Ave West, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H3A 1A2.|Direction de santé publique, CIUSSS du Centre-Est-de-l'Île-de-Montréal, 1301 Sherbrooke St East, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H2L 1M3.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Allard
authors.affiliation: Direction de santé publique, CIUSSS du Centre-Est-de-l'Île-de-Montréal, 1301 Sherbrooke St East, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H2L 1M3.|École de santé publique, Université de Montréal, 7101 avenue du Parc, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H3N 1X9.
authors.forename: Lucie
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Bédard
authors.affiliation: Direction de santé publique, CIUSSS du Centre-Est-de-l'Île-de-Montréal, 1301 Sherbrooke St East, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H2L 1M3.
authors.forename: Jérôme
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Latreille
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, 1020 Pine Ave West, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H3A 1A2 david.buckeridge@mcgill.ca.|Direction de santé publique, CIUSSS du Centre-Est-de-l'Île-de-Montréal, 1301 Sherbrooke St East, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H2L 1M3.
authors.forename: David L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Buckeridge
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001424:Bacterial Infections / Q000635:transmission*; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D018451:Homosexuality, Male; D006801:Humans; D007410:Intestinal Diseases / Q000150:complications*; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D062486:Public Health Surveillance; D011792:Quebec; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012749:Sexually Transmitted Diseases / Q000209:etiology / Q000635:transmission*; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: decision support techniques; food-borne diseases; public health surveillance; sexually transmitted diseases