title: Quantitative effects of a declaration of a state of emergency on foot-and-mouth disease.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The law in Japan requires the declaration of a state of emergency and implementation of countermeasures for an epidemic of a new infectious disease. However, because a state of emergency has never been declared in Japan, its effects remain unknown. The required countermeasures are similar to those implemented in the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Miyazaki in 2010. This study aimed to quantitatively estimate the effect of the declaration in 2010 and investigate the nature of the epidemic based on the day on which the declaration took effect.
  
  
  METHODS
  Only publicly available data were used. Data for farms in the most affected town were analyzed. A modified susceptible-infected-recovered model was used to estimate the effect and for the simulation. Another model was used to estimate the effective reproduction number.
  
  
  RESULTS
  After the declaration, the intra-bovine transmission rate decreased by 18.1 %, and there were few days when the effective reproduction number was >1.0. A few weeks delay in the declaration significantly increased the possibility of epidemic, number of farms at peak, and final infection scale.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Based on the substantial decrease in the transmission rate after the declaration of a state of emergency in 2010, a future declaration will have a similar effect for a new infectious disease even though a direct extrapolation is not valid. Although a declaration should be carefully considered owing to the potential socioeconomic effects, it is essential to prepare for the implementation given that a delay of only a few weeks should be acceptable.
authors.affiliation: Department of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Showa University, Tokyo, 142-8555, Japan.
authors.forename: Takenori
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Yamauchi
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Miyazaki, Miyazaki, 889-1692, Japan.
authors.forename: Shouhei
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Takeuchi
authors.affiliation: Center for Collaborative Research and Community Cooperation, University of Miyazaki, Miyazaki, 889-1692, Japan.
authors.forename: Yoichiro
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Horii
authors.affiliation: Department of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Showa University, Tokyo, 142-8555, Japan.
authors.forename: Yuko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yamano
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Miyazaki, Miyazaki, 889-1692, Japan.
authors.forename: Yoshiki
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Kuroda
authors.affiliation: Department of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Showa University, Tokyo, 142-8555, Japan. nakadate@med.showa-u.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Toshio
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nakadate
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D004630:Emergencies / Q000662:veterinary*; D058872:Epidemics / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000662:veterinary*; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008962:Models, Theoretical
keywords: Declaration of a state of emergency; Effective reproduction number; Foot-and-mouth disease; Mathematical model; New infectious disease