title: Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.
abstract: Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.
authors.affiliation: Conservation Ecology Group, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.
authors.forename: Philip A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Stephens
authors.affiliation: Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Centre for Conservation Science, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK.
authors.forename: Lucy R
authors.initials: LR
authors.lastname: Mason
authors.affiliation: Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Centre for Conservation Science, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK. Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
authors.forename: Rhys E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Green
authors.affiliation: Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Centre for Conservation Science, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK.
authors.forename: Richard D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Gregory
authors.affiliation: United States Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, 12100 Beech Forest Road, Laurel, MD 20708, USA.
authors.forename: John R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Sauer
authors.affiliation: Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Crown Street, Liverpool L69 3BX, UK.
authors.forename: Jamie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Alison
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Biology, University of Latvia, Jelgavas iela 1, Riga, LV-1004, Latvia.
authors.forename: Ainars
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Aunins
authors.affiliation: Center for Mediterranean Forest Research, Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya, InForest JRU, Solsona 25280, Spain. REAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Catalonia, Spain. CSIC, Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193, Catalonia, Spain.
authors.forename: Lluís
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Brotons
authors.affiliation: Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK. BirdLife International, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.
authors.forename: Stuart H M
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Butchart
authors.affiliation: MITO2000 National Committee; c/o Dream Italia, Via Garibaldi 3, 52015, Pratovecchio-Stia, Arezzo, Italy.
authors.forename: Tommaso
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Campedelli
authors.affiliation: Ogólnopolskie Towarzystwo Ochrony Ptaków, Odrowąża 24,05-270 Marki, Poland.
authors.forename: Tomasz
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Chodkiewicz
authors.affiliation: Museum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Wilcza 64, 00-679 Warszawa, Poland.
authors.forename: Przemysław
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Chylarecki
authors.affiliation: BirdWatch Ireland, Unit 20 Block D Bullford Business Campus, Kilcoole, County Wicklow, Ireland.
authors.forename: Olivia
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Crowe
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Vanemuise Street 46, 51014 Tartu, Estonia. Estonian Ornithological Society, Veski 4, 51005 Tartu, Estonia.
authors.forename: Jaanus
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Elts
authors.affiliation: Sociedad Española de Ornitología/BirdLife Melquiades Biencinto, 34, 28053 Madrid. Spain.
authors.forename: Virginia
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Escandell
authors.affiliation: European Bird Census Council, Post Office Box 6521, 6503 GA Nijmegen, Netherlands. Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Post Office Box 6521, 6503 GA Nijmegen, Netherlands. Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University, Post Office Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Ruud P B
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Foppen
authors.affiliation: Dansk Ornitologisk Forening-BirdLife Denmark and University of Aarhus, Vesterbrogade 140, 1620 København V, Denmark.
authors.forename: Henning
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Heldbjerg
authors.affiliation: European Bird Census Council-Catalan Ornithological Institute, Natural History Museum of Barcelona, Plaça Leonardo da Vinci 4-5, 08019 Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.
authors.forename: Sergi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Herrando
authors.affiliation: Section for Science, Nord University, 7600 Levanger, Norway.
authors.forename: Magne
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Husby
authors.affiliation: UMR7204 Sorbonne Universités-MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, CESCO, CRBPO, CP 135, 43 Rue Buffon, 75005 Paris, France.
authors.forename: Frédéric
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Jiguet
authors.affiliation: The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, Post Office Box 17, 00014 University of Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Aleksi
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lehikoinen
authors.affiliation: Biodiversity Unit, Department of Biology, Lund University, Ecology Building, S-223 62 Lund, Sweden.
authors.forename: Åke
authors.initials: Å
authors.lastname: Lindström
authors.affiliation: The British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK.
authors.forename: David G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Noble
authors.affiliation: Natagora, Département Études, Rue Nanon 98, B-5000 Namur, Belgium.
authors.forename: Jean-Yves
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Paquet
authors.affiliation: Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic. Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology, Faculty of Science, Palacký University Olomouc, 17 Listopadu 50, 771 43 Olomouc, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Jiri
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Reif
authors.affiliation: Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204 Sempach, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sattler
authors.affiliation: Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Nyíregyháza, Sóstói út 31/b, 4400 Nyíregyháza, Hungary.
authors.forename: Tibor
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Szép
authors.affiliation: BirdLife Austria, Museumsplatz 1/10/8, A-1070 Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Norbert
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Teufelbauer
authors.affiliation: Dachverband Deutscher Avifaunisten e.V. (Federation of German Avifaunists), An den Speichern 6, D-48157 Münster, Germany.
authors.forename: Sven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Trautmann
authors.affiliation: Statistics Netherlands, Post Office Box 24500, 2490 HA The Hague, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Arco J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: van Strien
authors.affiliation: Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Post Office Box 6521, 6503 GA Nijmegen, Netherlands. Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University, Post Office Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Chris A M
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: van Turnhout
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology, Faculty of Science, Palacký University Olomouc, 17 Listopadu 50, 771 43 Olomouc, Czech Republic. Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme, Czech Society for Ornithology, Na Bělidle 252/34, CZ-15000 Prague 5, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Petr
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Vorisek
authors.affiliation: Conservation Ecology Group, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.
authors.forename: Stephen G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Willis
mesh_terms: D025041:Animal Migration; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D001717:Birds; D001947:Breeding; D057231:Climate Change; D064308:Ecological Parameter Monitoring; D005060:Europe; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014481:United States