title: Climate change surpasses land-use change in the contracting range boundary of a winter-adapted mammal.
abstract: The effects of climate change on biodiversity have emerged as a dominant theme in conservation biology, possibly eclipsing concern over habitat loss in recent years. The extent to which this shifting focus has tracked the most eminent threats to biodiversity is not well documented. We investigated the mechanisms driving shifts in the southern range boundary of a forest and snow cover specialist, the snowshoe hare, to explore how its range boundary has responded to shifting rates of climate and land cover change over time. We found that although both forest and snow cover contributed to the historical range boundary, the current duration of snow cover best explains the most recent northward shift, while forest cover has declined in relative importance. In this respect, the southern range boundary of snowshoe hares has mirrored the focus of conservation research; first habitat loss and fragmentation was the stronger environmental constraint, but climate change has now become the main threat. Projections of future range shifts show that climate change, and associated snow cover loss, will continue to be the major driver of this species' range loss into the future.
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Dr. Madison, WI 53706-1598, USA.
authors.forename: Sean M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Sultaire
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Dr. Madison, WI 53706-1598, USA.
authors.forename: Jonathan N
authors.initials: JN
authors.lastname: Pauli
authors.affiliation: Community, Natural Resource, and Economic Development Program, University of Wisconsin-Extension, 432 N. Lake St Madison, WI 53706, USA.
authors.forename: Karl J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Martin
authors.affiliation: Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, 107 Sutliff Ave, Rhinelander, WI 54501, USA.
authors.forename: Michael W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Meyer
authors.affiliation: Center for Climactic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1225 West Dayton St Madison, WI 53706, USA.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Notaro
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Dr. Madison, WI 53706-1598, USA bzuckerberg@wisc.edu.
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Zuckerberg
mesh_terms: D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D065928:Forests; D034621:Hares / Q000502:physiology*; D012914:Snow; D014922:Wisconsin
keywords: forest fragmentation; global change; mammal distribution; range boundary; snow cover; trailing edge