title: Plasma interleukin-10 predicts short-term mortality of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.
abstract: Interleukin (IL)-10 is a pleiotropic cytokine with anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive properties in liver failure. Biomarkers are urgently needed to predict prognosis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF).
  
  
  
  To investigate the potential diagnostic value of plasma IL-10 as a biomarker for predicting the mortality of ACHBLF.
  
  
  
  This prospective study consisted of 115 newly diagnosed ACHBLF patients from May 2009 to October 2013 as a training cohort and 54 ACHBLF patients from November 2013 to March 2015 as a validating cohort. Plasma IL-10 level was measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.
  
  
  
  In the training cohort, the plasma IL-10 level of nonsurvivals [median (centile25; centile75): 12.38 (8.76; 15.52) pg/mL] was significantly higher than that in survivals [6.55 (5.43; 7.65) pg/mL, P < 0.001]. Plasma IL-10 (hazard ratio = 1.205, 95% confidence interval: 1.145-1.267, P < 0.001) was identified as an independent risk factor for mortality of ACHBLF patients. Furthermore, plasma IL-10 showed higher area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) than model for end-stage liver diseases (MELD) for predicting 1-month (0.887 vs. 0.779, P < 0.05), 2-month (0.878 vs. 0.779, P < 0.05) and 3-month (0.917 vs. 0.776, P < 0.001) mortality. However, we did not find significant differences in AUROC between IL-10 and IL-10 plus MELD for 1-, 2- and 3-month mortality. ACHBLF patients with plasma IL-10 > 9.6 pg/mL showed poor survival time than patients with plasma IL-10 ≤ 9.6 pg/mL at the end of 1 month in the training and validation cohorts.
  
  
  
  Plasma IL-10 performed better than MELD in predicting the prognosis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure. Furthermore, plasma IL-10 > 9.6 pg/mL predicts a poor 1-month mortality.
authors.affiliation: Department of Hepatology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China.
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Hepatology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China.|Institute of Hepatology, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
authors.forename: Y-C
authors.initials: YC
authors.lastname: Fan
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: H H-X
authors.initials: HH
authors.lastname: Xia
authors.affiliation: Department of Hepatology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China.
authors.forename: Y-Y
authors.initials: YY
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Department of Hepatology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China.|Institute of Hepatology, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D065290:Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure / Q000401:mortality*; D000328:Adult; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D004797:Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay; D005260:Female; D019694:Hepatitis B, Chronic / Q000097:blood*; D006801:Humans; D016753:Interleukin-10 / Q000097:blood*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D016753:Interleukin-10