title: The probability of simple versus complex causal models in causal analyses.
abstract: Complex causal models, accompanied by causal analyses based on large correlation matrices, are more common in the social sciences than are simple causal models accompanied by a single correlation coefficient. The increased complexity of the former, relative to the latter, seems to carry with it an augmented scientific respectability or credibility. In contrast, the axioms of probability suggest an argument in the opposite direction.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, Mexico. dtrafimo@nmsu.edu.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Trafimow
mesh_terms: D015984:Causality; D006801:Humans; D011336:Probability
keywords: Causal analysis; Causal structure; Complex causal model; Conjunction fallacy; Simple causal model