title: Constructing criteria to diagnose the likelihood of extreme events in the case of the electric power grid.
abstract: A set of new criteria for the diagnosis of the possible occurrence of a large blackout are constructed, using the output from a model for the dynamics of the electric power grid (the OPA model). The approach used is to look for maximum values of the Transfer Entropy between time series of the system variables and the time series of large blackouts. The best criterion is found by looking at the number of overloaded lines at the beginning of the day.
authors.affiliation: CIEMAT - Laboratorio Nacional de Fusión, Avda. Complutense 40, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: B Ph
authors.initials: BP
authors.lastname: van Milligen
authors.affiliation: BACV Solutions, 110 Mohawk Road, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37830, USA.
authors.forename: B A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Carreras
authors.affiliation: Physics Department, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, USA.
authors.forename: D E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Newman