title: New risk-scoring system including non-alcoholic fatty liver disease for predicting incident type 2 diabetes in East China: Shanghai Baosteel Cohort.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The present study aimed to explore the incidence of type 2 diabetes, and to develop a risk-scoring model for predicting diabetes among the adult health check-up population in East China.
  
  
  METHODS
  Participants from the Shanghai Baosteel Cohort (age ≥20 years) without diabetes at baseline were recruited in a 6-year follow-up study. In order to explore risk factors for diabetes, this cohort was categorized into two groups: new diabetes and no diabetes. Three models were developed by Cox regression analysis. The model accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 6,542 individuals were included in the Shanghai Baosteel Cohort Study. Of them, 368 (5.6%) developed type 2 diabetes at the end of the follow-up period. Cox regression analysis found a close association between incident type 2 diabetes and several risk factors including non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases at baseline. The Shanghai Baosteel Score including advanced age (2 points), hypertriglyceridemia (2 points), obesity (2 points), non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases (2 points) and impaired fasting glucose (3 points) had a good diagnostic performance with estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.724), sensitivity (57.9%) and specificity (72.2%) at a cut-off point of >3.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A risk-scoring system including non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases can help identify individuals at a high risk of diabetes in the East Chinese population.
authors.affiliation: Center for Fatty Liver Disease Department of Gastroenterology Xinhua Hospital Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine Shanghai China.
authors.forename: Guang-Yu
authors.initials: GY
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Center for Fatty Liver Disease Department of Gastroenterology Xinhua Hospital Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine Shanghai China.
authors.forename: Hai-Xia
authors.initials: HX
authors.lastname: Cao
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology Zhongshan Hospital Fudan University Shanghai China.
authors.forename: Feng
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology Shanghai First People's Hospital Shanghai China.
authors.forename: Xiao-Bo
authors.initials: XB
authors.lastname: Cai
authors.affiliation: Center for Health Care Shanghai Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. Shanghai China.
authors.forename: Qing-Hong
authors.initials: QH
authors.lastname: Ao
authors.affiliation: Center for Health Care Shanghai Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. Shanghai China.
authors.forename: Yan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.affiliation: Center for Fatty Liver Disease Department of Gastroenterology Xinhua Hospital Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine Shanghai China.
authors.forename: Jian-Gao
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Fan
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001786:Blood Glucose; D002681:China; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006949:Hyperlipidemias / Q000150:complications; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D065626:Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease / Q000150:complications*; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose
keywords: Diabetes; Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease; Proportional hazard models