title: Exploration and exploitation in the macrohistory of the pre-Hispanic Pueblo Southwest.
abstract: Cycles of demographic and organizational change are well documented in Neolithic societies, but the social and ecological processes underlying them are debated. Such periodicities are implicit in the "Pecos classification," a chronology for the pre-Hispanic U.S. Southwest introduced in Science in 1927 which is still widely used. To understand these periodicities, we analyzed 29,311 archaeological tree-ring dates from A.D. 500 to 1400 in the context of a novel high spatial resolution, annual reconstruction of the maize dry-farming niche for this same period. We argue that each of the Pecos periods initially incorporates an "exploration" phase, followed by a phase of "exploitation" of niches that are simultaneously ecological, cultural, and organizational. Exploitation phases characterized by demographic expansion and aggregation ended with climatically driven downturns in agricultural favorability, undermining important bases for social consensus. Exploration phases were times of socio-ecological niche discovery and development.
authors.affiliation: Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-4910, USA.; Crow Canyon Archaeological Center, Cortez, CO 81321, USA.
authors.forename: R Kyle
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-1862-3428
authors.initials: RK
authors.lastname: Bocinsky
authors.affiliation: CyberGIS Center for Advanced Digital and Spatial Studies, National Center for Supercomputing Applications, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA.; Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.
authors.forename: Johnathan
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-6853-8494
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rush
authors.affiliation: School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA.
authors.forename: Keith W
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9821-3634
authors.initials: KW
authors.lastname: Kintigh
authors.affiliation: Department of Anthropology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-4910, USA.; Crow Canyon Archaeological Center, Cortez, CO 81321, USA.; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA.
authors.forename: Timothy A
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Kohler
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000266:history*; D001106:Archaeology / Q000266:history*; D002910:Chronology as Topic; D002980:Climate; D003710:Demography; D017753:Ecosystem; D049690:History, Ancient; D006801:Humans; D014481:United States
keywords: Agriculture; Climate change; Prehispanic Pueblo Southwest; socio-ecological cycles