title: Projection of Climate Change Influences on U.S. West Nile Virus Vectors.
abstract: While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. We describe a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vector-borne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, we estimate mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location, however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, mid-summer decreases in abundance may be off-set by shorter extrinsic incubation periods resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
authors.forename: Heidi E
authors.initials: HE
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
authors.forename: Alex
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Young
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
authors.forename: Joceline
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lega
authors.affiliation: Center for Vector Biology & Zoonotic Diseases, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven, CT, USA.
authors.forename: Theodore G
authors.initials: TG
authors.lastname: Andreadis
authors.affiliation: Colorado Mosquito Control, Denver, CO, USA.
authors.forename: Jessica
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Schurich
authors.affiliation: School of Geography & Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Comrie