title: Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change.
abstract: Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.|School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4041, South Africa.
authors.forename: Enrico
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Di Minin
authors.affiliation: School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4041, South Africa.|Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Rob
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Slotow
authors.affiliation: School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4041, South Africa.|Panthera, New York, New York, United States of America.
authors.forename: Luke T B
authors.initials: LT
authors.lastname: Hunter
authors.affiliation: Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.|Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Science &Technology Facilities Council, Harwell Oxford Campus, Didcot OX11 0QX, UK.
authors.forename: Federico
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Montesino Pouzols
authors.affiliation: Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.|Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Tuuli
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Toivonen
authors.affiliation: Faculty Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Peter H
authors.initials: PH
authors.lastname: Verburg
authors.affiliation: Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK.
authors.forename: Nigel
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Leader-Williams
authors.affiliation: Panthera, New York, New York, United States of America.
authors.forename: Lisanne
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Petracca
authors.affiliation: Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Atte
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Moilanen
mesh_terms: D000663:Amphibians; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D060435:Carnivory; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D056727:Endangered Species; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D006802:Human Activities; D006801:Humans; D008322:Mammals; D012104:Reptiles; D012106:Research; D013045:Species Specificity