title: Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations.
abstract: We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations.
authors.affiliation: Crop Science Group, INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
authors.forename: Holger
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hoffmann
authors.affiliation: Crop Science Group, INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
authors.forename: Gang
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
authors.forename: Senthold
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Asseng
authors.affiliation: Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bindi
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Biernath
authors.affiliation: INRA, Auzeville, France.
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Constantin
authors.affiliation: Department of Soil and Environment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Elsa
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Coucheney
authors.affiliation: Thünen-Institute of Climate-Smart-Agriculture, Braunschweig, Germany.
authors.forename: Rene
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Dechow
authors.affiliation: Desertification Research Group, Universitá degli Studi di Sassari, Sassari, Italy.
authors.forename: Luca
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Doro
authors.affiliation: Department of Crop Production Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Henrik
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Eckersten
authors.affiliation: Crop Science Group, INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Gaiser
authors.affiliation: Thünen-Institute of Climate-Smart-Agriculture, Braunschweig, Germany.
authors.forename: Balázs
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Grosz
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Florian
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Heinlein
authors.affiliation: Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
authors.forename: Belay T
authors.initials: BT
authors.lastname: Kassie
authors.affiliation: Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Kurt-Christian
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Kersebaum
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Klein
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Matthias
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kuhnert
authors.affiliation: Department of Soil and Environment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Elisabet
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Lewan
authors.affiliation: CNR-Ibimet, Florence, Italy.
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Moriondo
authors.affiliation: Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Claas
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Nendel
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Neuherberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Eckart
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Priesack
authors.affiliation: INRA, Auzeville, France.
authors.forename: Helene
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Raynal
authors.affiliation: Desertification Research Group, Universitá degli Studi di Sassari, Sassari, Italy.
authors.forename: Pier P
authors.initials: PP
authors.lastname: Roggero
authors.affiliation: Environmental Impacts Group, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Vantaa, Finland.
authors.forename: Reimund P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Rötter
authors.affiliation: Crop Science Group, INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Siebert
authors.affiliation: Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Xenia
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Specka
authors.affiliation: Environmental Impacts Group, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Vantaa, Finland.
authors.forename: Fulu
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Tao
authors.affiliation: Systems Modelling Team (Sustainable Production Group), The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited, Canterbury Agriculture & Science Centre, Lincoln, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Edmar
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Teixeira
authors.affiliation: Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
authors.forename: Giacomo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Trombi
authors.affiliation: INRA, Auzeville, France.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Wallach
authors.affiliation: Agrosphere Institute (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany.
authors.forename: Lutz
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Weihermüller
authors.affiliation: The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Jagadeesh
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Yeluripati
authors.affiliation: Crop Science Group, INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Ewert
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000379:methods*; D057231:Climate Change; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000254:growth & development*; D016208:Databases, Factual; D012275:Oryza / Q000254:growth & development; D012987:Soil / Q000737:chemistry*; D014908:Triticum / Q000254:growth & development; D014867:Water; D003313:Zea mays / Q000254:growth & development
chemical_list: D012987:Soil; D014867:Water