title: Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland.
abstract: Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick-host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. The model is useful in improving understanding of the spatial determinants and system mechanisms of Lyme disease pathogen transmission and its sensitivity to temperature changes.
authors.affiliation: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK sen.li@ouce.ox.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Sen
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1177-7339
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, UK.
authors.forename: Lucy
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Gilbert
authors.affiliation: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Library Avenue, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK.
authors.forename: Paula A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Harrison
authors.affiliation: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK.
authors.forename: Mark D A
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Rounsevell
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001096:Arachnid Vectors; D025065:Borrelia burgdorferi; D005260:Female; D057232:Global Warming; D006801:Humans; D018884:Ixodes; D008193:Lyme Disease / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D012307:Risk Factors; D012606:Scotland; D012621:Seasons
keywords: Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato; Ixodes ricinus; agent-based model; climate warming; environmental health hazard; spatio-temporal dynamics