title: Testing the accuracy ratio of the Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) through Ebola haemorrhagic fever outbreaks.
abstract: Mathematical modelling is an important tool for understanding the dynamics of the spread of infectious diseases, which could be the result of a natural outbreak or of the intentional release of pathogenic biological agents. Decision makers and policymakers responsible for strategies to contain disease, prevent epidemics and fight possible bioterrorism attacks, need accurate computational tools, based on mathematical modelling, for preventing or even managing these complex situations. In this article, we tested the validity, and demonstrate the reliability, of an open-source software, the Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM), designed to help scientists and public health officials to evaluate and create models of emerging infectious diseases, analysing three real cases of Ebola haemorrhagic fever (EHF) outbreaks: Uganda (2000), Gabon (2001) and Guinea (2014). We discuss the cases analysed through the simulation results obtained with STEM in order to demonstrate the capability of this software in helping decision makers plan interventions in case of biological emergencies.
authors.affiliation: International Master Courses in Protection Against CBRNe events,Department of Industrial Engineering and School of Medicine and Surgery,University of Rome Tor Vergata,Italy.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Baldassi
authors.affiliation: International Master Courses in Protection Against CBRNe events,Department of Industrial Engineering and School of Medicine and Surgery,University of Rome Tor Vergata,Italy.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: D'Amico
authors.affiliation: International Master Courses in Protection Against CBRNe events,Department of Industrial Engineering and School of Medicine and Surgery,University of Rome Tor Vergata,Italy.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Carestia
authors.affiliation: International Master Courses in Protection Against CBRNe events,Department of Industrial Engineering and School of Medicine and Surgery,University of Rome Tor Vergata,Italy.
authors.forename: O
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-8679-4918
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Cenciarelli
authors.affiliation: International Master Courses in Protection Against CBRNe events,Department of Industrial Engineering and School of Medicine and Surgery,University of Rome Tor Vergata,Italy.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Mancinelli
authors.affiliation: International Master Courses in Protection Against CBRNe events,Department of Industrial Engineering and School of Medicine and Surgery,University of Rome Tor Vergata,Italy.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Gilardi
authors.affiliation: International Master Courses in Protection Against CBRNe events,Department of Industrial Engineering and School of Medicine and Surgery,University of Rome Tor Vergata,Italy.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Malizia
authors.affiliation: International Master Courses in Protection Against CBRNe events,Department of Industrial Engineering and School of Medicine and Surgery,University of Rome Tor Vergata,Italy.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: DI Giovanni
authors.affiliation: International Master Courses in Protection Against CBRNe events,Department of Industrial Engineering and School of Medicine and Surgery,University of Rome Tor Vergata,Italy.
authors.forename: P M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Soave
authors.affiliation: International Master Courses in Protection Against CBRNe events,Department of Industrial Engineering and School of Medicine and Surgery,University of Rome Tor Vergata,Italy.
authors.forename: C
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-5129-119X
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bellecci
authors.affiliation: International Master Courses in Protection Against CBRNe events,Department of Industrial Engineering and School of Medicine and Surgery,University of Rome Tor Vergata,Italy.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Gaudio
authors.affiliation: International Master Courses in Protection Against CBRNe events,Department of Industrial Engineering and School of Medicine and Surgery,University of Rome Tor Vergata,Italy.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Palombi
mesh_terms: D021821:Communicable Diseases, Emerging / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D015023:Democratic Republic of the Congo / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D029043:Ebolavirus / Q000502:physiology*; D005681:Gabon / Q000453:epidemiology; D016701:Guinea / Q000453:epidemiology; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012984:Software / Q000592:standards*; D014454:Uganda / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Ebola virus; infectious disease; mathematical modelling; viral haemorrhagic fever; virology