title: Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes.
abstract: Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous-the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world's fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch, $53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits.
authors.affiliation: Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106; costello@bren.ucsb.edu.
authors.forename: Christopher
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Costello
authors.affiliation: Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Ovando
authors.affiliation: Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
authors.forename: Tyler
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Clavelle
authors.affiliation: Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010;
authors.forename: C Kent
authors.initials: CK
authors.lastname: Strauss
authors.affiliation: School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
authors.forename: Ray
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hilborn
authors.affiliation: School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
authors.forename: Michael C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Melnychuk
authors.affiliation: School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
authors.forename: Trevor A
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Branch
authors.affiliation: Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
authors.forename: Steven D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Gaines
authors.affiliation: Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
authors.forename: Cody S
authors.initials: CS
authors.lastname: Szuwalski
authors.affiliation: Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
authors.forename: Reniel B
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: Cabral
authors.affiliation: Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010;
authors.forename: Douglas N
authors.initials: DN
authors.lastname: Rader
authors.affiliation: Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010;
authors.forename: Amanda
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Leland
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D018533:Biomass; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D005398:Fisheries / Q000191:economics*; D005399:Fishes; D005523:Food Supply; D006801:Humans
keywords: bioeconomic model; fishery recovery; fishery reform; rights-based fishery management