title: Monitoring schistosomiasis risk in East China over space and time using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach.
abstract: Schistosomiasis remains a major public health problem and causes substantial economic impact in east China, particularly along the Yangtze River Basin. Disease forecasting and surveillance can assist in the development and implementation of more effective intervention measures to control disease. In this study, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model to describe trends in schistosomiasis risk in Anhui Province, China, using annual parasitological and environmental data for the period 1997-2010. A computationally efficient approach-Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation-was used for model inference. A zero-inflated, negative binomial model best described the spatio-temporal dynamics of schistosomiasis risk. It predicted that the disease risk would generally be low and stable except for some specific, local areas during the period 2011-2014. High-risk counties were identified in the forecasting maps: three in which the risk remained high, and two in which risk would become high. The results indicated that schistosomiasis risk has been reduced to consistently low levels throughout much of this region of China; however, some counties were identified in which progress in schistosomiasis control was less than satisfactory. Whilst maintaining overall control, specific interventions in the future should focus on these refractive counties as part of a strategy to eliminate schistosomiasis from this region.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China.|Laboratory for Spatial Analysis and Modeling, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Collaborative Innovation Center of Social Risks Governance in Health,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
authors.forename: Yi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: University of Sydney Faculty of Veterinary Science, NSW 2570, Australia.
authors.forename: Michael P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Ward
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China.|Laboratory for Spatial Analysis and Modeling, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
authors.forename: Congcong
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Xia
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China.|Laboratory for Spatial Analysis and Modeling, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
authors.forename: Rui
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China.|Laboratory for Spatial Analysis and Modeling, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
authors.forename: Liqian
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China.|Laboratory for Spatial Analysis and Modeling, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Collaborative Innovation Center of Social Risks Governance in Health,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
authors.forename: Henry
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lynn
authors.affiliation: Anhui Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuhu, People's Republic of China 230061, China.
authors.forename: Fenghua
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.affiliation: Anhui Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuhu, People's Republic of China 230061, China.
authors.forename: Qizhi
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Anhui Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuhu, People's Republic of China 230061, China.
authors.forename: Shiqing
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China.|Collaborative Innovation Center of Social Risks Governance in Health,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
authors.forename: Chenglong
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Xiong
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China.|Laboratory for Spatial Analysis and Modeling, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Collaborative Innovation Center of Social Risks Governance in Health,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
authors.forename: Zhijie
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200032, China.|Laboratory for Spatial Analysis and Modeling, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Collaborative Innovation Center of Social Risks Governance in Health,School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
authors.forename: Qingwu
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Jiang
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044466:Asian People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D019295:Computational Biology / Q000379:methods; D019353:Endemic Diseases; D062306:Geography, Medical; D006790:Host-Parasite Interactions; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D012549:Schistosoma japonicum / Q000502:physiology*; D012554:Schistosomiasis japonica / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000208:ethnology / Q000469:parasitology*; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis