title: Modelling the effect of temperature on the seasonal population dynamics of temperate mosquitoes.
abstract: Mosquito-borne diseases cause substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide. These impacts are widely predicted to increase as temperatures warm and extreme precipitation events become more frequent, since mosquito biology and disease ecology are strongly linked to environmental conditions. However, direct evidence linking environmental change to changes in mosquito-borne disease is rare, and the ecological mechanisms that may underpin such changes are poorly understood. Environmental drivers, such as temperature, can have non-linear, opposing impacts on the demographic rates of different mosquito life cycle stages. As such, model frameworks that can deal with fluctuations in temperature explicitly are required to predict seasonal mosquito abundance, on which the intensity and persistence of disease transmission under different environmental scenarios depends. We present a novel, temperature-dependent, delay-differential equation model, which incorporates diapause and the differential effects of temperature on the duration and mortality of each life stage and demonstrates the sensitivity of seasonal abundance patterns to inter- and intra-annual changes in temperature. Likely changes in seasonal abundance and exposure to mosquitoes under projected changes in UK temperatures are presented, showing an increase in peak vector abundance with warming that potentially increases the risk of disease outbreaks.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK; School of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science and Engineering, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom. Electronic address: davewi@ceh.ac.uk.
authors.forename: D A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Ewing
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science and Engineering, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom; The Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
authors.forename: C A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Cobbold
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK.
authors.forename: B V
authors.initials: BV
authors.lastname: Purse
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK.
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Nunn
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK; Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford, Oxfordshire OX2 6GG, UK. Electronic address: smwhit@ceh.ac.uk.
authors.forename: S M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: White
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D009033:Culicidae / Q000254:growth & development*; D064666:Diapause, Insect; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000254:growth & development; D008018:Life Cycle Stages; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012307:Risk Factors; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Climate change; Culex pipiens; Delay-differential equation; Stage-structured modelling; Vector modelling