title: Tackling intraspecific genetic structure in distribution models better reflects species geographical range.
abstract: Genetic diversity provides insight into heterogeneous demographic and adaptive history across organisms' distribution ranges. For this reason, decomposing single species into genetic units may represent a powerful tool to better understand biogeographical patterns as well as improve predictions of the effects of GCC (global climate change) on biodiversity loss. Using 279 georeferenced Iberian accessions, we used classes of three intraspecific genetic units of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana obtained from the genetic analyses of nuclear SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), chloroplast SNPs, and the vernalization requirement for flowering. We used SDM (species distribution models), including climate, vegetation, and soil data, at the whole-species and genetic-unit levels. We compared model outputs for present environmental conditions and with a particularly severe GCC scenario. SDM accuracy was high for genetic units with smaller distribution ranges. Kernel density plots identified the environmental variables underpinning potential distribution ranges of genetic units. Combinations of environmental variables accounted for potential distribution ranges of genetic units, which shrank dramatically with GCC at almost all levels. Only two genetic clusters increased their potential distribution ranges with GCC. The application of SDM to intraspecific genetic units provides a detailed picture on the biogeographical patterns of distinct genetic groups based on different genetic criteria. Our approach also allowed us to pinpoint the genetic changes, in terms of genetic background and physiological requirements for flowering, that Iberian A. thaliana may experience with a GCC scenario applying SDM to intraspecific genetic units.
authors.affiliation: CREAF Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193 Spain; Univ Autònoma de Barcelona Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193 Spain.
authors.forename: Arnald
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Marcer
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Genética Molecular de Plantas Centro Nacional de Biotecnología (CNB) Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) 28049 Madrid Spain.
authors.forename: Belén
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Méndez-Vigo
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Genética Molecular de Plantas Centro Nacional de Biotecnología (CNB) Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) 28049 Madrid Spain.
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Alonso-Blanco
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ecología Integrativa Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD) Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) 41092 Sevilla Spain.
authors.forename: F Xavier
authors.initials: FX
authors.lastname: Picó
keywords: Arabidopsis thaliana; genetic structure; global climate change; potential distribution range; species distribution models