title: Development and Validation of a Risk-Score Model for Type 2 Diabetes: A Cohort Study of a Rural Adult Chinese Population.
abstract: Some global models to predict the risk of diabetes may not be applicable to local populations. We aimed to develop and validate a score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a rural adult Chinese population. Data for a cohort of 12,849 participants were randomly divided into derivation (n = 11,564) and validation (n = 1285) datasets. A questionnaire interview and physical and blood biochemical examinations were performed at baseline (July to August 2007 and July to August 2008) and follow-up (July to August 2013 and July to October 2014). A Cox regression model was used to weigh each variable in the derivation dataset. For each significant variable, a score was calculated by multiplying β by 100 and rounding to the nearest integer. Age, body mass index, triglycerides and fasting plasma glucose (scores 3, 12, 24 and 76, respectively) were predictors of incident T2DM. The model accuracy was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), with optimal cut-off value 936. With the derivation dataset, sensitivity, specificity and AUC of the model were 66.7%, 74.0% and 0.768 (95% CI 0.760-0.776), respectively. With the validation dataset, the performance of the model was superior to the Chinese (simple), FINDRISC, Oman and IDRS models of T2DM risk but equivalent to the Framingham model, which is widely applicable in a variety of populations. Our model for predicting 6-year risk of T2DM could be used in a rural adult Chinese population.
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shenzhen University School of Medicine, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Ming
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shenzhen University School of Medicine, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.|Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Hongyan
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Chongjian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shenzhen University School of Medicine, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.|Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Yongcheng
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ren
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shenzhen University School of Medicine, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.|Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Bingyuan
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shenzhen University School of Medicine, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.|Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Lu
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shenzhen University School of Medicine, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.|Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Xiangyu
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shenzhen University School of Medicine, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.|Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Yang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shenzhen University School of Medicine, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.|Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Chengyi
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Han
authors.affiliation: Department of Prevention and Health Care, Military Hospital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Chao
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Pang
authors.affiliation: Department of Prevention and Health Care, Military Hospital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Lei
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Yin
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Yuan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Xue
authors.affiliation: Department of Prevention and Health Care, Military Hospital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou, Henan, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Jingzhi
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shenzhen University School of Medicine, Shenzhen, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Dongsheng
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Hu
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D044466:Asian People; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis; D015992:Body Mass Index; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood*; D005260:Female; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009850:Oman; D012372:ROC Curve; D012307:Risk Factors; D012424:Rural Population; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014280:Triglycerides / Q000097:blood
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D014280:Triglycerides