title: Enrollment Management in Medical School Admissions: A Novel Evidence-Based Approach at One Institution.
abstract: In higher education, enrollment management has been developed to accurately predict the likelihood of enrollment of admitted students. This allows evidence to dictate numbers of interviews scheduled, offers of admission, and financial aid package distribution. The applicability of enrollment management techniques for use in medical education was tested through creation of a predictive enrollment model at the University of Michigan Medical School (U-M).
  
  
  
  U-M and American Medical College Application Service data (2006-2014) were combined to create a database including applicant demographics, academic application scores, institutional financial aid offer, and choice of school attended. Binomial logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression models were estimated in order to study factors related to enrollment at the local institution versus elsewhere and to groupings of competing peer institutions. A predictive analytic "dashboard" was created for practical use.
  
  
  
  Both models were significant at P < .001 and had similar predictive performance. In the binomial model female, underrepresented minority students, grade point average, Medical College Admission Test score, admissions committee desirability score, and most individual financial aid offers were significant (P < .05). The significant covariates were similar in the multinomial model (excluding female) and provided separate likelihoods of students enrolling at different institutional types.
  
  
  
  An enrollment-management-based approach would allow medical schools to better manage the number of students they admit and target recruitment efforts to improve their likelihood of success. It also performs a key institutional research function for understanding failed recruitment of highly desirable candidates.
authors.affiliation: J.C. Burkhardt is a lecturer, Departments of Emergency Medicine and Learning Health Sciences, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, Michigan. S.L. DesJardins is professor, School of Education and School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. C.A. Teener is admissions director, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, Michigan. S.E. Gay is assistant dean for admissions and assistant professor, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, Michigan. S.A. Santen is assistant dean for educational research and quality improvement and professor, Departments of Emergency Medicine and Learning Health Sciences, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
authors.forename: John C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Burkhardt
authors.forename: Stephen L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: DesJardins
authors.forename: Carol A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Teener
authors.forename: Steven E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Gay
authors.forename: Sally A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Santen
mesh_terms: D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008824:Michigan; D012570:School Admission Criteria / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012577:Schools, Medical / Q000458:organization & administration* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D013337:Students, Medical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data