title: Prediction of the anti-RhD donor population size for managerial decision-making.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Rhesus D (RhD)-negative women pregnant with a RhD-positive child receive prophylactic injections to prevent haemolytic disease of the newborn. Because of the success of the prophylaxis, the number of naturally immunized women has decreased, thereby also decreasing the number of potential donors who provide the plasma from which the prophylaxis is made. As the current donor pool is ageing, the availability of the prophylaxis is threatened.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  Objectives are to investigate whether the anti-D population and the changes therein can be described by a relatively simple model, to determine the impact of ageing of the anti-D donors on the decline of the population and how many new donors should be recruited to meet future supply demand.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data on Dutch anti-D donors in 1994-2013 were used to simulate the donor population size and age composition for various donor recruitment scenarios.
  
  
  RESULTS
  With a continuous influx of 27 new donors per year and a donor stopping rate of 10% per year, the population size will stabilize at 195 donors, with 2·3% of donors stopping annually due to reaching the donor age limit. A formula is derived to estimate which donor recruitment and retention efforts are required to maintain a prespecified donor pool.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A relatively simple model can already describe and predict the size of the anti-D donor population and the impact of ageing accurately.
authors.affiliation: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.|Transfusion Technology Assessment Department, Sanquin Blood Supply, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: L R
authors.initials: LR
authors.lastname: van Hoeven
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Immunohematology, Sanquin Research, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.|Landsteiner Laboratory, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Berkowska
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Immunohematology, Sanquin Research, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.|Landsteiner Laboratory, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: O J H M
authors.initials: OJ
authors.lastname: Verhagen
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Technology & Services Research, MIRA Institute for Biomedical Technology and Technical Medicine, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Koffijberg
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Immunohematology, Sanquin Research, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.|Landsteiner Laboratory, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: C E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: van der Schoot
authors.affiliation: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.|Transfusion Technology Assessment Department, Sanquin Blood Supply, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: M P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Janssen
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001782:Blood Donors / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003657:Decision Making; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011156:Population Density; D012203:Rh Isoimmunization / Q000517:prevention & control; D012204:Rh-Hr Blood-Group System / Q000276:immunology*
chemical_list: D012204:Rh-Hr Blood-Group System
keywords: anti-D plasma donors; donor retention; population size; prediction; simulation