title: Assessment of the impact of the malaria elimination programme on the burden of disease morbidity in endemic areas of Iran.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Controlling and preventive measures considerably reduced malaria incidence in Iran over the past few years, which confined the endemic areas to some regions in the southeastern Iran. The National Malaria Elimination Programme commenced in 2010. With regard to the presumption that the elimination programme interventions have accelerated the declining trend of malaria incidence across the endemic areas of Iran, the present study attempted to assess the effectiveness of the elimination programme by reviewing malaria incidence status, over a 14-year period, and comparing the trend of malaria incidence across malaria-endemic areas between the control and pre-elimination phase, and the elimination phase.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective analysis of malaria surveillance data was conducted in a 14-year period (2001-2014), using multilevel Poisson regression. The epidemiological malaria maps and indicators also were developed and compared between the control and pre-elimination phase, and the elimination phase.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean of malaria incidence was 2.2 (1.7-2.7) for the entire study period. This rate was 3.4 (2.6-4.1) in the control and pre-elimination phase, and 0.41 (0.25-0.57) for the elimination phase. During the malaria elimination phase, the decline of annual malaria incidence had significantly accelerated and autochthonous cases had the greatest difference in malaria incidence decline (compared to the control and pre-elimination phase), whereas, falciparum cases had the lowest difference in malaria incidence decline, followed by non-Iranian and imported cases. Furthermore, there was a decline in Iranians to non-Iranians ratio and an increase in the ratios of over 15 to under 15, as well as male to female, in the elimination phase in comparison to the control and pre-elimination phase.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  It seems that the decline of malaria transmission, which has been initiated over the past few years, has accelerated as a result of the elimination programme, and Iran is approaching the goals set regarding the elimination of this disease.
authors.affiliation: Research Center for Modeling in Health, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
authors.forename: Khodadad
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sheikhzadeh
authors.affiliation: Regional Knowledge Hub, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran. ahaghdoost@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Ali Akbar
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Haghdoost
authors.affiliation: Research Center for Modeling in Health, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
authors.forename: Abbas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bahrampour
authors.affiliation: Research Center for Modeling in Health, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
authors.forename: Farzaneh
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Zolala
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Entomology and Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Ahmad
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Raeisi
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000469:parasitology / Q000517:prevention & control; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009017:Morbidity; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Iran; Malaria elimination; Multilevel; Poisson