title: Functional traits help to explain half-century long shifts in pollinator distributions.
abstract: Changes in climate and land use can have important impacts on biodiversity. Species respond to such environmental modifications by adapting to new conditions or by shifting their geographic distributions towards more suitable areas. The latter might be constrained by species' functional traits that influence their ability to move, reproduce or establish. Here, we show that functional traits related to dispersal, reproduction, habitat use and diet have influenced how three pollinator groups (bees, butterflies and hoverflies) responded to changes in climate and land-use in the Netherlands since 1950. Across the three pollinator groups, we found pronounced areal range expansions (>53%) and modelled range shifts towards the north (all taxa: 17-22 km), west (bees: 14 km) and east (butterflies: 11 km). The importance of specific functional traits for explaining distributional changes varied among pollinator groups. Larval diet preferences (i.e. carnivorous vs. herbivorous/detritivorous and nitrogen values of host plants, respectively) were important for hoverflies and butterflies, adult body size for hoverflies, and flight period length for all groups. Moreover, interactions among multiple traits were important to explain species' geographic range shifts, suggesting that taxon-specific multi-trait analyses are needed to predict how global change will affect biodiversity and ecosystem services.
authors.affiliation: Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Biodiversity Dynamics, postbus 9517, 2300 RA, Leiden, The Netherlands.|Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED), Computational Geo-Ecology, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 HX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jesús
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Aguirre-Gutiérrez
authors.affiliation: Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED), Computational Geo-Ecology, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 HX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: W Daniel
authors.initials: WD
authors.lastname: Kissling
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade de Brasília, Campus Universitário Darcy Ribeiro, Brasília, DF, 70910-900, Brazil.|Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (CE3C), Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal.
authors.forename: Luísa G
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Carvalheiro
authors.affiliation: De Vlinderstichting/Dutch Butterfly Conservation, P.O. Box 506, 6700 AM Wageningen, The Netherlands.|Wageningen University, Laboratory of Entomology, P.O. Box 16, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Michiel F
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: WallisDeVries
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Ecology, UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Halle, Germany.
authors.forename: Markus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Franzén
authors.affiliation: Naturalis Biodiversity Center, Biodiversity Dynamics, postbus 9517, 2300 RA, Leiden, The Netherlands.|Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED), Computational Geo-Ecology, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 HX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jacobus C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Biesmeijer
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001516:Bees; D044822:Biodiversity; D002080:Butterflies; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D009426:Netherlands; D054817:Pollination; D019655:Quantitative Trait, Heritable; D062206:Spatial Analysis