title: Burden of cancer associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japan, 2010-2030.
abstract: Diabetes mellitus constitutes a major disease burden globally, and the prevalence of diabetes continues to increase worldwide. We aimed to estimate the burden of cancer associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japan between 2010 and 2030. In this study, we estimated the population attributable fraction of cancer risk associated with type 2 diabetes in 2010 and 2030 using the prevalence estimates of type 2 diabetes in Japan from 1990 to 2030, summary hazard ratios of diabetes and cancer risk from a pooled analysis of eight large-scale Japanese cohort studies, observed incidence/mortality of cancer in 2010 and predicted incidence/mortality for 2030 derived from the age-period-cohort model. Our results showed that between 2010 and 2030, the total numbers of cancer incidence and mortality were predicted to increase by 38.9% and 10.5% in adults aged above 20 years, respectively. In the number of excess incident cancer cases associated with type 2 diabetes, an increase of 26.5% in men and 53.2% in women is expected between 2010 and 2030. The age-specific analysis showed that the population attributable fraction of cancer will increase in adults aged >60 years over time, but will not change in adults aged 20-59 years. In conclusion, this study suggests a modest but steady increase in cancers associated with type 2 diabetes.
authors.affiliation: AXA Department of Health and Human Security, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.|Epidemiology and Prevention Group, Center for Public Health Sciences, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Eiko
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Saito
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Prevention Group, Center for Public Health Sciences, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Hadrien
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Charvat
authors.affiliation: Department of Diabetes Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.|Department of Public Health, Tokyo Women's Medical University, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Atsushi
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Goto
authors.affiliation: Division of Surveillance, Center for Cancer Control and Information Services, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Tomohiro
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Matsuda
authors.affiliation: Department of Diabetes Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.|Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes, Saitama Medical University, Moroyama, Japan.
authors.forename: Mitsuhiko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Noda
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Prevention Group, Center for Public Health Sciences, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Shizuka
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sasazuki
authors.affiliation: AXA Department of Health and Human Security, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.|Epidemiology and Prevention Group, Center for Public Health Sciences, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Manami
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Inoue
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: APC models; cancer; diabetes mellitus; population attributable fraction; prediction