title: Prediction model for sustained hepatitis B e antigen seroconversion to peginterferon alfa-2a in chronic hepatitis B.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Clinically applicable models to predict hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) response to peginterferon (PEG-IFN) are scarce. This study aimed to develop simple scoring systems, based on multiple parameters, for predicting sustained HBeAg seroconversion to PEG-IFN.
  
  
  METHODS
  Eighty-five treatment-naïve patients with HBeAg-positive CHB underwent 52-week PEG-IFN treatment and 24-week follow-up. Logistic regression analysis assessed parameters at baseline and weeks 12, 24, and 52 to predict HBeAg seroconversion at week 24 off-treatment. The best three predictors at each time point were included in prediction models of PEG-IFN therapy efficacy.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The three most meaningful predictors were alanine aminotransferase (ALT) > 5 × ULN, HBeAg ≤ 500 S/CO, and antibody to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc) > 10.7 S/CO at baseline; HBeAg ≤ 20 S/CO, anti-HBc > 11.7 S/CO, and HBeAg decline > 1 log10S/CO at week 12; ALT > 2 × ULN, HBeAg ≤ 15 S/CO, and anti-HBc > 10.4 S/CO at week 24; HBeAg ≤ 5 S/CO, anti-HBc > 11.1 S/CO, and hepatitis B virus DNA decline > 2 log10copies/mL at week 52. Parameters meeting optimal cutoff thresholds were scored 1 or otherwise scored 0. For total scores of 0 versus 3 at baseline and weeks 12, 24, and 52, response rates were 6.3%, 12.5%, 0%, and 0% versus 90.0%, 83.3%, 76.9%, and 86.4%, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We successfully established prediction models for PEG-IFN response in HBeAg-positive CHB.
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
authors.forename: Huilan
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
authors.forename: Changtai
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
authors.forename: Yafei
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
authors.forename: Shaofeng
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wei
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
authors.forename: Xu
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
authors.forename: Zhenhua
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D000410:Alanine Transaminase / Q000097:blood; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D019540:Area Under Curve; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D006512:Hepatitis B Core Antigens / Q000097:blood; D006513:Hepatitis B e Antigens / Q000097:blood*; D006515:Hepatitis B virus / Q000187:drug effects* / Q000276:immunology; D019694:Hepatitis B, Chronic / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D016898:Interferon-alpha / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D016015:Logistic Models; D011092:Polyethylene Glycols / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D011994:Recombinant Proteins / Q000627:therapeutic use; D000069078:Seroconversion; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D015415:Biomarkers; D006512:Hepatitis B Core Antigens; D006513:Hepatitis B e Antigens; D016898:Interferon-alpha; D011994:Recombinant Proteins; D011092:Polyethylene Glycols; D000410:Alanine Transaminase; C100416:peginterferon alfa-2a
keywords: chronic hepatitis B; hepatitis B e antigen; model; peginterferon; therapy