title: Quantifying the impact of rising food prices on child mortality in India: a cross-district statistical analysis of the District Level Household Survey.
abstract: Rates of child malnutrition and mortality in India remain high. We tested the hypothesis that rising food prices are contributing to India's slow progress in improving childhood survival.
  
  
  
  Using rounds 2 and 3 (2002-08) of the Indian District Level Household Survey, we calculated neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates in 364 districts, and merged these with district-level food price data from the National Sample Survey Office. Multivariate models were estimated, stratified into 27 less deprived states and territories and 8 deprived states ('Empowered Action Groups').
  
  
  
  Between 2002 and 2008, the real price of food in India rose by 11.7%. A 1% increase in total food prices was associated with a 0.49% increase in neonatal (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13% to 0.85%), but not infant or under-five mortality rates. Disaggregating by type of food and level of deprivation, in the eight deprived states, we found an elevation in neonatal mortality rates of 0.33% for each 1% increase in the price of meat (95% CI: 0.06% to 0.60%) and 0.10% for a 1% increase in dairy (95% CI: 0.01% to 0.20%). We also detected an adverse association of the price of dairy with infant (b = 0.09%; 95% CI: 0.01% to 0.16%) and under-five mortality rates (b = 0.10%; 95% CI: 0.03% to 0.17%). These associations were not detected in less deprived states and territories.
  
  
  
  Rising food prices, particularly of high-protein meat and dairy products, were associated with worse child mortality outcomes. These adverse associations were concentrated in the most deprived states.
authors.affiliation: Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, jasmine.fledderjohann@sociology.ox.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Jasmine
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fledderjohann
authors.affiliation: Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, Public Health Foundation of India, Delhi, India and.
authors.forename: Sukumar
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Vellakkal
authors.affiliation: Public Health Foundation of India, Delhi, India and.
authors.forename: Zaky
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.affiliation: Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
authors.forename: Shah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ebrahim
authors.affiliation: Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, Public Health Foundation of India, Delhi, India and.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Stuckler
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D046688:Child Mortality; D015362:Child Nutrition Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003132:Commerce; D005260:Female; D005502:Food / Q000191:economics*; D005523:Food Supply / Q000191:economics*; D006801:Humans; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology; D007223:Infant; D007226:Infant Mortality; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009749:Nutrition Surveys; D011203:Poverty; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires
keywords: India; child health; food prices; mortality