title: A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data: how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?
abstract: Estimating population spread rates across multiple species is vital for projecting biodiversity responses to climate change. A major challenge is to parameterise spread models for many species. We introduce an approach that addresses this challenge, coupling a trait-based analysis with spatial population modelling to project spread rates for 15 000 virtual mammals with life histories that reflect those seen in the real world. Covariances among life-history traits are estimated from an extensive terrestrial mammal data set using Bayesian inference. We elucidate the relative roles of different life-history traits in driving modelled spread rates, demonstrating that any one alone will be a poor predictor. We also estimate that around 30% of mammal species have potential spread rates slower than the global mean velocity of climate change. This novel trait-space-demographic modelling approach has broad applicability for tackling many key ecological questions for which we have the models but are hindered by data availability.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Viale dell'Università 32, 00185, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Luca
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-5418-3688
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Santini
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Cornulier
authors.affiliation: NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK.
authors.forename: James M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Bullock
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK.
authors.forename: Stephen C F
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Palmer
authors.affiliation: NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK.|Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK.
authors.forename: Steven M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: White
authors.affiliation: Department of Evolution, Ecology and Behaviour, University of Liverpool, Biosciences Building, Crown Street, Liverpool, L69 7ZB, UK.
authors.forename: Jenny A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Hodgson
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK.
authors.forename: Greta
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Bocedi
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ, UK.
authors.forename: Justin M J
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Travis
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D003710:Demography; D008322:Mammals; D008962:Models, Theoretical
keywords: climate change velocity; demographic models; dispersal; integrodifference equations; life-history traits; population spread rate; range shift; rangeShifter; trait space; virtual species