title: Assessment of future changes in water availability and aridity.
abstract: Substantial changes in the hydrological cycle are projected for the 21st century, but these projections are subject to major uncertainties. In this context, the "dry gets drier, wet gets wetter" (DDWW) paradigm is often used as a simplifying summary. However, recent studies cast doubt on the validity of the paradigm and also on applying the widely usedP-E(precipitation - evapotranspiration) metric over global land surfaces. Here we show in a comprehensive CMIP5-based assessment that projected changes in mean annualP-Eare generally not significant, except for high-latitude regions showing wetting conditions until the end of the 21st century. Significant increases in aridity do occur in many subtropical and also adjacent humid regions. However, combining both metrics still shows that approximately 70% of all land area will not experience significant changes. Based on these findings, we conclude that the DDWW paradigm is generally not confirmed for projected changes in most land areas.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland; Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM)ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Greve
authors.affiliation: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland.
authors.forename: S I
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: Seneviratne
keywords: CMIP5; aridity; climate change; dry gets drier, wet gets wetter; water availability