title: Exhaled Breath Temperature as a Novel Marker of Future Development of COPD: Results of a Follow-Up Study in Smokers.
abstract: Although only less than one-third of smokers develop COPD, early marker(s) of COPD development are lacking. The aim of this research was to assess the ability of an average equilibrium exhaled breath temperature (EBT) in identifying susceptibility to cigarette smoke so as to predict COPD development in smokers at risk. The study was a part of a multicenter prospective cohort study in current smokers (N = 140, both sexes, 40-65 years, ≥20 pack-years) with no prior diagnosis of COPD. Diagnostic workup includes history, physical, quality of life, hematology and highly sensitive CRP, EBT before and after smoking a cigarette, lung function with bronchodilator test, and 6-minute walk test. Patients without a diagnosis of COPD and in GOLD 1 stage at initial assessment were reassessed after 2 years. COPD was additionally diagnosed based on lower level of normal (LLN) lung function criteria. Utility of EBT for disease progression was analyzed using receiver operator curve (ROC) and logistic regression analyses. Change in EBT after smoking a cigarette at initial visit (ΔEBT) was significantly predictive for disease progression (newly diagnosed COPD; newly diagnosed COPD + severity progression) after 2 years (p < 0.05 for both). ΔEBT had an AUC of 0.859 (p = 0.011) with sensitivity of 66.7% and specificity of 98.1% for newly diagnosed COPD using LLN criteria. We conclude that EBT shows potential for predicting the future development of COPD in current smokers. This was best seen using LLN to diagnose COPD, adding further evidence to question the use of GOLD criteria for diagnosing COPD.
authors.affiliation: a Department of Pulmonology , University Hospital Center Osijek , Osijek , Croatia.|e Faculty of Medicine , J.J. Strossmayer University of Osijek , Osijek , Croatia.
authors.forename: Marina
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Labor
authors.affiliation: b Department of Pulmonology and Immunology , General Hospital Dubrovnik , Dubrovnik , Croatia.|c University of Dubrovnik , Dubrovnik , Croatia.
authors.forename: Žarko
authors.initials: Ž
authors.lastname: Vrbica
authors.affiliation: d Department of Pulmonology , University Hospital Center Split , Split , Croatia.
authors.forename: Ivan
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Gudelj
authors.affiliation: a Department of Pulmonology , University Hospital Center Osijek , Osijek , Croatia.|e Faculty of Medicine , J.J. Strossmayer University of Osijek , Osijek , Croatia.
authors.forename: Slavica
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Labor
authors.affiliation: f Department of Cardiology , University Hospital Center Osijek , Osijek , Croatia.
authors.forename: Iva
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Jurić
authors.affiliation: e Faculty of Medicine , J.J. Strossmayer University of Osijek , Osijek , Croatia.|g Research Department , Children's Hospital Srebrnjak , Zagreb , Croatia.
authors.forename: Davor
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Plavec
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015415:Biomarkers; D001944:Breath Tests; D018450:Disease Progression; D045853:Exhalation; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005541:Forced Expiratory Volume; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology / Q000503:physiopathology*; D012372:ROC Curve; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000503:physiopathology*; D013696:Temperature; D014797:Vital Capacity; D000070857:Walk Test
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers
keywords: Biological markers; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); cigarette smoking; cohort study; disease susceptibility; exhaled breath temperature; trial registration