title: Edentulism in Brazil: trends, projections and expectations until 2040.
abstract: The aim of this study was to examine the edentulism rates in Brazil and make projections for the next years. Data were collected from three national oral health surveys. The percentage of edentulous jaws was calculated. Projections were made for the years 2020, 2030 and 2040, assuming that edentulism follows a logistic function. Population projections were also performed. Annual change in proportion of edentulous jaws was -0.04% for teenagers, -0.96% for adults and 0.76% for the elderly. By 2040, edentulous jaws will be virtually zero among teenagers, 1.77% among adults and 85.96% among the elderly. Teenagers will slightly decrease in number; adults will increase and subsequently decrease; the elderly will continue to increase. In teenagers and adults, the number of edentulous jaws will decrease, being approximately 616,000 in 2040. In the elderly, it will increase alarmingly, reaching over 64 million in 2040. Edentulism is declining in Brazil among teenagers and middle-aged adults, but is still increasing and will continue to increase for the next decades among the elderly.
authors.affiliation: Universidade Veiga de Almeida, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil, mayracardoso.mc@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Mayra
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cardoso
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Odontologia Social, Instituto de Ciência e Tecnologia, Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho, São José dos Campos, SP, Brasil.
authors.forename: Ivan
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Balducci
authors.affiliation: Faculdade de Odontologia, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
authors.forename: Daniel de Moraes
authors.initials: Dde M
authors.lastname: Telles
authors.affiliation: Faculdade de Odontologia, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
authors.forename: Eduardo José Veras
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Lourenço
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Materiais Odontológicos e Prótese, ICT, Unesp, São José dos Campos, SP, Brasil.
authors.forename: Lafayette
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Nogueira Júnior
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D003753:Dental Health Surveys; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009066:Mouth, Edentulous / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055815:Young Adult