title: Critical Links and Nonlocal Rerouting in Complex Supply Networks.
abstract: Link failures repeatedly induce large-scale outages in power grids and other supply networks. Yet, it is still not well understood which links are particularly prone to inducing such outages. Here we analyze how the nature and location of each link impact the network's capability to maintain a stable supply. We propose two criteria to identify critical links on the basis of the topology and the load distribution of the network prior to link failure. They are determined via a link's redundant capacity and a renormalized linear response theory we derive. These criteria outperform the critical link prediction based on local measures such as loads. The results not only further our understanding of the physics of supply networks in general. As both criteria are available before any outage from the state of normal operation, they may also help real-time monitoring of grid operation, employing countermeasures and support network planning and design.
authors.affiliation: Network Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization (MPIDS), 37077 Göttingen, Germany.|Forschungszentrum Jülich, Institute for Energy and Climate Research-Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), 52428 Jülich, Germany.|Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Cologne, 50937 Köln, Germany.
authors.forename: Dirk
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Witthaut
authors.affiliation: Network Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization (MPIDS), 37077 Göttingen, Germany.|IIIrd Institute of Physics, Faculty of Physics, Georg August University, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.|Department of Physics and Earth Sciences, Jacobs University, 28759 Bremen, Germany.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rohden
authors.affiliation: Network Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization (MPIDS), 37077 Göttingen, Germany.
authors.forename: Xiaozhu
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Network Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization (MPIDS), 37077 Göttingen, Germany.
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hallerberg
authors.affiliation: Network Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization (MPIDS), 37077 Göttingen, Germany.|Institute for Nonlinear Dynamics, Faculty of Physics, Georg August University Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Timme