title: Proposal of a predictive model for advanced fibrosis containing Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein in chronic hepatitis C.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We aimed to construct a predictive model for advanced fibrosis containing Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2-binding protein (WFA+-M2BP) level in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and to validate its accuracy in an independent cohort.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 386 patients with CHC were retrospectively analyzed. For the purpose of this study, we formed a training set (n = 210) and a validation set (n = 176). In the training set, we investigated variables linked to the presence of advanced fibrosis using univariate and multivariate analyses. We constructed a formula for predicting advanced fibrosis and validated its accuracy in the validation cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was carried out for calculating the area under the ROC (AUROC).
  
  
  RESULTS
  In multivariate analyses, WFA+-M2BP (P = 0.029) and prothrombin time (PT) (P = 0.018) were found to be significant predictive factors linked to the presence of advanced fibrosis; platelet count (P = 0.098) and hyaluronic acid (P = 0.078) showed borderline statistical significance for the presence of advanced fibrosis. Using these four variables (with the initials MPPH), we constructed the following formula: MPPH score = -3.584 - (0.275 × WFA+-M2BP) + (0.068 × platelet count) + (0.042 × PT) - (0.005 × hyaluronic acid). In the training and validation sets, MPPH score yielded the highest AUROCs (0.87 and 0.83) for predicting advanced fibrosis among eight serum liver fibrosis markers. Similarly, in the training and validation sets, MPPH score had the highest diagnostic accuracies for predicting advanced fibrosis among eight serum variables (81.4% and 74.4%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our proposed MPPH scoring system can be useful for predicting advanced fibrosis in patients with CHC.
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Hiroki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nishikawa
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Ryo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Takata
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Hirayuki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Enomoto
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Kazunori
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Yoh
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Kyohei
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kishino
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Yoshihiro
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Shimono
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Yoshinori
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Iwata
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Kunihiro
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hasegawa
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Chikage
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Nakano
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Takashi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nishimura
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Nobuhiro
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Aizawa
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Yoshiyuki
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Sakai
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Naoto
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Ikeda
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Tomoyuki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Takashima
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Akio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ishii
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Hiroko
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Iijima
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Hyogo College of Medicine, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan.
authors.forename: Shuhei
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Nishiguchi
keywords: WFA+-M2BP; chronic hepatitis c; liver fibrosis; predictive model; validation