title: Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus.
abstract: Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked public health concern. In 2013, the virus began to spread across other parts of Oceania and in 2015, a large outbreak in Latin America began in Brazil. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas.
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Jane P
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-7829-1272
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Messina
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Moritz Ug
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-8838-7147
authors.initials: MU
authors.lastname: Kraemer
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Oliver J
authors.initials: OJ
authors.lastname: Brady
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.|Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States.
authors.forename: David M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Pigott
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Freya M
authors.initials: FM
authors.lastname: Shearer
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Daniel J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Weiss
authors.affiliation: Department of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Nick
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Golding
authors.affiliation: WorldPop project, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Corrine W
authors.initials: CW
authors.lastname: Ruktanonchai
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Peter W
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Gething
authors.affiliation: Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Emily
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Cohn
authors.affiliation: Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: John S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Brownstein
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.|Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.
authors.forename: Kamran
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.affiliation: WorldPop project, Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom.|Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Tatem
authors.affiliation: Section Clinical Tropical Medicine, Department for Infectious Diseases, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany.|German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Heidelberg partner site, Heidelberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Jaenisch
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States.
authors.forename: Christopher Jl
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Murray
authors.affiliation: Secretariat of Health Surveillance, Ministry of Health Brazil, Brasilia, Brazil.
authors.forename: Fatima
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Marinho
authors.affiliation: Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, United States.
authors.forename: Thomas W
authors.initials: TW
authors.lastname: Scott
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.|Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States.
authors.forename: Simon I
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-0611-7272
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: Hay
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D004777:Environment; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D000072138:Mosquito Vectors / Q000254:growth & development*; D014329:Tropical Climate; D000071244:Zika Virus / Q000502:physiology*; D000071243:Zika Virus Infection / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*
keywords: Zika virus; disease mapping; epidemiology; global health; human; infectious disease; microbiology; vector-borne disease; virus