Integrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisions.
Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challenge governments, and is only likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. Here we summarise recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation approaches to better connect emerging issues to the political discourse on environmental and food-related issues. Our categorisation of insights including potential future risks and opportunities to inform policy discussions has emerged from a structured three-year programme of horizon scanning for a UK pan-governmental futures partnership led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Our efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation, utilising a qualitative weight of evidence framework, has created a systematic process for identifying all signals of potential future change with significant impact for the strategic mission and underlying values of policy actors. Our approach encourages an exploration of factors out of the control of organisations, recognising that resilience depends on the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with a variety of unexpected outcomes. We discuss how this approach addresses key cultural and evaluative challenges that policy actors have had in embedding horizon scanning in evidence-based policy processes, and suggest further developments to build confidence in the use of horizon scanning for strategic planning.
Cranfield University, School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, UK. Electronic address: k.garnett@cranfield.ac.uk.
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Garnett
Cranfield University, School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, UK.
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Lickorish
Cranfield University, School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, UK.
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Rocks
Cranfield University, School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, UK.
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Prpich
Cranfield University, School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, UK.
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Rathe
Cranfield University, School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood, Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, UK.
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Pollard
D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D058735:Environmental Policy; D012306:Risk
Futures; Horizon scanning; Policy; Prioritisation; Risk; Strategic decision-making