Evaluation of the 'Jumping to conclusions' bias in different subgroups of the at-risk mental state: from cognitive basic symptoms to UHR criteria.
Patients with psychosis display the so-called 'Jumping to Conclusions' bias (JTC) - a tendency for hasty decision-making in probabilistic reasoning tasks. So far, only a few studies have evaluated the JTC bias in 'at-risk mental state' (ARMS) patients, specifically in ARMS samples fulfilling 'ultra-high risk' (UHR) criteria, thus not allowing for comparisons between different ARMS subgroups.



In the framework of the PREVENT (secondary prevention of schizophrenia) study, a JTC task was applied to 188 patients either fulfilling UHR criteria or presenting with cognitive basic symptoms (BS). Similar data were available for 30 healthy control participants matched for age, gender, education and premorbid verbal intelligence. ARMS patients were identified by the Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms (SIPS) and the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument - Adult Version (SPI-A).



The mean number of draws to decision (DTD) significantly differed between ARM -subgroups: UHR patients made significantly less draws to make a decision than ARMS patients with only cognitive BS. Furthermore, UHR patients tended to fulfil behavioural criteria for JTC more often than BS patients. In a secondary analysis, ARMS patients were much hastier in their decision-making than controls. In patients, DTD was moderately associated with positive and negative symptoms as well as disorganization and excitement.



Our data indicate an enhanced JTC bias in the UHR group compared to ARMS patients with only cognitive BS. This underscores the importance of reasoning deficits within cognitive theories of the developing psychosis. Interactions with the liability to psychotic transitions and therapeutic interventions should be unravelled in longitudinal studies.
Central Institute of Mental Health,Medical Faculty Mannheim,Heidelberg University,Germany.
F
F
Rausch
Central Institute of Mental Health,Medical Faculty Mannheim,Heidelberg University,Germany.
S
S
Eisenacher
Central Institute of Mental Health,Medical Faculty Mannheim,Heidelberg University,Germany.
H
H
Elkin
Central Institute of Mental Health,Medical Faculty Mannheim,Heidelberg University,Germany.
S
S
Englisch
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,University of Bonn,Germany.
S
S
Kayser
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,University of Bonn,Germany.
N
N
Striepens
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,Charité University Medicine Campus Mitte,Berlin,Germany.
M
M
Lautenschlager
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,Charité University Medicine Campus Mitte,Berlin,Germany.
A
A
Heinz
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,Charité University Medicine Campus Mitte,Berlin,Germany.
Y
Y
Gudlowski
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,Heinrich-Heine-University Duesseldorf,Germany.
B
B
Janssen
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,Heinrich-Heine-University Duesseldorf,Germany.
W
W
Gaebel
Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics,University Aachen,Germany.
T M
TM
Michel
Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics,University Aachen,Germany.
F
F
Schneider
Department for Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf,Germany.
M
M
Lambert
Department for Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf,Germany.
D
D
Naber
Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy, and Preventive Medicine,Ruhr University Bochum,Germany.
G
G
Juckel
Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy, and Preventive Medicine,Ruhr University Bochum,Germany.
S
S
Krueger-Oezguerdal
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,Georg-August-University Goettingen,Goettingen,Germany.
T
T
Wobrock
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,Ludwig-Maximilians-University,Munich,Germany.
A
A
Hasan
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,Ludwig-Maximilians-University,Munich,Germany.
M
M
Riedel
Department for Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf,Germany.
S
S
Moritz
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,University of Cologne,Germany.
H
H
Müller
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,University of Cologne,Germany.
J
J
Klosterkötter
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,University of Cologne,Germany.
A
A
Bechdolf
Central Institute of Mental Health,Medical Faculty Mannheim,Heidelberg University,Germany.
M
M
Zink
Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy,University of Bonn,Germany.
M
M
Wagner
D000328:Adult; D060825:Cognitive Dysfunction / Q000503:physiopathology*; D003657:Decision Making / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012306:Risk; D012559:Schizophrenia / Q000503:physiopathology*; D055815:Young Adult
At-risk mental state; jumping-to-conclusion; metacognition; probabilistic reasoning; prodrome; schizophrenia