A New Empirical Constraint on the Prevalence of Technological Species in the Universe.
In this article, we address the cosmic frequency of technological species. Recent advances in exoplanet studies provide strong constraints on all astrophysical terms in the Drake equation. Using these and modifying the form and intent of the Drake equation, we set a firm lower bound on the probability that one or more technological species have evolved anywhere and at any time in the history of the observable Universe. We find that as long as the probability that a habitable zone planet develops a technological species is larger than ∼10(-24), humanity is not the only time technological intelligence has evolved. This constraint has important scientific and philosophical consequences.



Life-Intelligence-Extraterrestrial life. Astrobiology 2016, 359-362.
1 Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester , Rochester, New York.
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Frank
2 Department of Astronomy and Astrobiology Program, University of Washington , Seattle, Washington.
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Sullivan
D005118:Extraterrestrial Environment; D055585:Physical Phenomena; D016083:Planets