Disease-emergence dynamics and control in a socially-structured wildlife species.
Once a pathogen is introduced in a population, key factors governing rate of spread include contact structure, supply of susceptible individuals and pathogen life-history. We examined the interplay of these factors on emergence dynamics and efficacy of disease prevention and response. We contrasted transmission dynamics of livestock viruses with different life-histories in hypothetical populations of feral swine with different contact structures (homogenous, metapopulation, spatial and network). Persistence probability was near 0 for the FMDV-like case under a wide range of parameter values and contact structures, while persistence was probable for the CSFV-like case. There were no sets of conditions where the FMDV-like pathogen persisted in every stochastic simulation. Even when population growth rates were up to 300% annually, the FMDV-like pathogen persisted in <25% of simulations regardless of transmission probabilities and contact structure. For networks and spatial contact structure, persistence probability of the FMDV-like pathogen was always <10%. Because of its low persistence probability, even very early response to the FMDV-like pathogen in feral swine was unwarranted while response to the CSFV-like pathogen was generally effective. When pre-emergence culling of feral swine caused population declines, it was effective at decreasing outbreak size of both diseases by ≥80%.
National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, 4101 Laporte Ave., Fort Collins, CO, 80521.
Kim M
KM
Pepin
National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, 4101 Laporte Ave., Fort Collins, CO, 80521.
Kurt C
KC
VerCauteren
D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild; D006691:Classical Swine Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D003140:Communicable Disease Control; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D015233:Models, Statistical; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control