Generating an agricultural risk map based on limited ecological information: A case study using Sicyos angulatus.
In this study, we propose a method for estimating the risk of agricultural damage caused by an invasive species when species-specific information is lacking. We defined the "risk" as the product of the invasion probability and the area of potentially damaged crop for production. As a case study, we estimated the risk imposed by an invasive weed, Sicyos angulatus, based on simple cellular simulations and governmental data on the area of crop that could potentially be damaged in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. Simulation results revealed that the current distribution range was sufficiently accurate for practical purposes. Using these results and records of crop areas, we present risk maps for S. angulatus in agricultural fields. Managers will be able to use these maps to rapidly establish a management plan with minimal cost. Our approach will be valuable for establishing a management plan before or during the early stages of invasion.
National Institute for Agro-environmental Sciences, 3-1-3, Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8604, Japan. arosawa@gmail.com.
Takeshi
T
Osawa
Miyagi Prefectural Furukawa Agricultural Experiment Station, 88, Osaki-fukoku, Furukawa, Miyagi, 989-6227, Japan.
Shigenori
S
Okawa
NARO Agricultural Research Center, 3-1-1, Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0856, Japan.
Shunji
S
Kurokawa
Miyagi Prefectural Furukawa Agricultural Experiment Station, 88, Osaki-fukoku, Furukawa, Miyagi, 989-6227, Japan.
Shinichiro
S
Ando
D000383:Agriculture / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods* / Q000639:trends; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000254:growth & development; D019662:Cucurbitaceae / Q000254:growth & development*; D004463:Ecology; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D062305:Geographic Mapping; D058865:Introduced Species; D007564:Japan; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D057685:Plant Weeds / Q000254:growth & development*; D012306:Risk
Agricultural risk; Alien invasive species; Management strategy; Risk management; Risk mapping; Virtual ecology