Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations.
Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.
Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy.
Giorgio
G
Guzzetta
Piero
P
Poletti
Fabrizio
F
Montarsi
Frederic
F
Baldacchino
Gioia
G
Capelli
Annapaola
A
Rizzoli
Roberto
R
Rosà
Stefano
S
Merler
D000330:Aedes / Q000821:virology*; D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D017753:Ecosystem; D058872:Epidemics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology*; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D011157:Population Dynamics; D015995:Prevalence; D065947:Rainforest; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D000071244:Zika Virus / Q000145:classification / Q000302:isolation & purification* / Q000472:pathogenicity; D000071243:Zika Virus Infection / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology*
Zika virus; imported viral diseases; outbreaks; vector-borne infections