Estimating times of extinction in the fossil record.
Because the fossil record is incomplete, the last fossil of a taxon is a biased estimate of its true time of extinction. Numerous methods have been developed in the palaeontology literature for estimating the true time of extinction using ages of fossil specimens. These methods, which typically give a confidence interval for estimating the true time of extinction, differ in the assumptions they make and the nature and amount of data they require. We review the literature on such methods and make some recommendations for future directions.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, PA 19081, USA scwang@swarthmore.edu.
Steve C
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8953-285X
SC
Wang
Department of Integrative Biology and Museum of Paleontology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
Charles R
CR
Marshall
D000818:Animals; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005580:Fossils; D008954:Models, Biological; D010163:Paleontology; D013997:Time Factors
Bayesian; Signor–Lipps effect; confidence intervals; fossil record; mass extinction; stratigraphic range