Psychometric prediction of penitentiary recidivism.
BACKGROUND
Attempts to predict prison recidivism based on the personality have not been very successful. This study aims to provide data on recidivism prediction based on the scores on a personality questionnaire. For this purpose, a predictive model combining the actuarial procedure with a posteriori probability was developed, consisting of the probabilistic calculation of the effective verification of the event once it has already occurred.


METHODS
Cuestionario de Personalidad Situacional (CPS; Fern&aacute;ndez, Seisdedos, &amp; Mielgo, 1998) was applied to 978 male inmates classified as recidivists or non-recidivists.


RESULTS
High predictive power was achieved, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (p &lt;.001; Se = 0.012; 95% CI [0.826, 0.873]. The answers to the CPS items made it possible to properly discriminate 77.3% of the participants.


CONCLUSIONS
These data indicate the important role of the personality as a key factor in understanding delinquency and predicting recidivism.
Centro Penitenciario de Tarragona.
Pedro M
PM
Medina García
Rosa M
RM
Baños Rivera
D000328:Adult; D003415:Crime / Q000523:psychology*; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010551:Personality; D010556:Personality Tests; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology*; D011594:Psychometrics