title: The Interaction between Vector Life History and Short Vector Life in Vector-Borne Disease Transmission and Control.
abstract: Epidemiological modelling has a vital role to play in policy planning and prediction for the control of vectors, and hence the subsequent control of vector-borne diseases. To decide between competing policies requires models that can generate accurate predictions, which in turn requires accurate knowledge of vector natural histories. Here we highlight the importance of the distribution of times between life-history events, using short-lived midge species as an example. In particular we focus on the distribution of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) which determines the time between infection and becoming infectious, and the distribution of the length of the gonotrophic cycle which determines the time between successful bites. We show how different assumptions for these periods can radically change the basic reproductive ratio (R0) of an infection and additionally the impact of vector control on the infection. These findings highlight the need for detailed entomological data, based on laboratory experiments and field data, to correctly construct the next-generation of policy-informing models.
authors.affiliation: School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.|WIDER (Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research) Centre, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Samuel P C
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Brand
authors.affiliation: School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.|WIDER (Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research) Centre, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Kat S
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-8414-7648
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Rock
authors.affiliation: School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.|WIDER (Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research) Centre, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.|Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Matt J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Keeling
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D001819:Bluetongue / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D001820:Bluetongue virus / Q000472:pathogenicity; D002519:Ceratopogonidae / Q000254:growth & development / Q000821:virology; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D019295:Computational Biology; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D007299:Insect Bites and Stings / Q000821:virology; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000821:virology; D008018:Life Cycle Stages; D008954:Models, Biological