title: Ecological Niche Modeling of main reservoir hosts of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran.
abstract: Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL), caused by Leishmania major, is a common zoonotic vector-borne disease in Iran. Close contact with infected reservoir hosts increases the probability of transmission of Leishmania parasite infections to susceptible humans. Four gerbil species (Rodentia: Gerbillidae) serve as the main reservoir hosts for ZCL in different endemic foci of Iran. These species include Rhombomys opimus, Meriones libycus, Meriones hurrianae and Tatera indica; while notable infection has been reported in Nesokia indica as well. The purpose of this study is to model the distribution of these reservoirs to identify the risk areas of ZCL. A data bank was developed including all published data during the period of 1970-2015. Maximum entropy model was used to find the most appropriate ecological niches for each species. The areas under curve obtained were 0.961, 0.927, 0.922, 0.997 and 0.899, instead of 1, for training test in R. opimus, M. libycus, T. indica, M. hurrianae and N. indica, respectively. The environmental variable with the highest gain when used in isolation was slope for R. opimus and N. indica, annual mean temperature for M. libycus, and seasonal precipitation for T. indica and M. hurrianae. Summation of presence probabilities for three main species, i.e., R. opimus, M. libycus and T. indica revealed favorable ecological niches in wide areas of 16 provinces. This is the first study to predict the distribution of ZCL reservoir hosts in Iran. Climatology and topography variables had high contributions toward the prediction of potential distribution of the main reservoir species; therefore, as climate changes, the models should be updated periodically with novel data, and the results should be used in disease-monitoring programs.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Parasitology & Mycology, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Mostafa
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gholamrezaei
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Parasitology & Mycology, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Center for Research of Endemic Parasites of Iran (CREPI),Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. Electronic address: mohebali@tums.ac.ir.
authors.forename: Mehdi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mohebali
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Department of Human Ecology, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. Electronic address: aahanafibojd@tums.ac.ir.
authors.forename: Ahmad Ali
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Hanafi-Bojd
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Mohammad Mehdi
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Sedaghat
authors.affiliation: Zoonotic Department, Center for Communicable Diseases Management (CDC), Ministry of Health & Medical Education, Tehran, Iran; Zoonoses Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Mohammad Reza
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Shirzadi
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000469:parasitology; D004463:Ecology; D005849:Gerbillinae / Q000469:parasitology; D006801:Humans; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D018320:Leishmania major / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D016773:Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000469:parasitology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015047:Zoonoses
keywords: Animal reservoir host; Ecological Niche Modeling; Iran; Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis