title: Modeling Reef Fish Biomass, Recovery Potential, and Management Priorities in the Western Indian Ocean.
abstract: Fish biomass is a primary driver of coral reef ecosystem services and has high sensitivity to human disturbances, particularly fishing. Estimates of fish biomass, their spatial distribution, and recovery potential are important for evaluating reef status and crucial for setting management targets. Here we modeled fish biomass estimates across all reefs of the western Indian Ocean using key variables that predicted the empirical data collected from 337 sites. These variables were used to create biomass and recovery time maps to prioritize spatially explicit conservation actions. The resultant fish biomass map showed high variability ranging from ~15 to 2900 kg/ha, primarily driven by human populations, distance to markets, and fisheries management restrictions. Lastly, we assembled data based on the age of fisheries closures and showed that biomass takes ~ 25 years to recover to typical equilibrium values of ~1200 kg/ha. The recovery times to biomass levels for sustainable fishing yields, maximum diversity, and ecosystem stability or conservation targets once fishing is suspended was modeled to estimate temporal costs of restrictions. The mean time to recovery for the whole region to the conservation target was 8.1(± 3SD) years, while recovery to sustainable fishing thresholds was between 0.5 and 4 years, but with high spatial variation. Recovery prioritization scenario models included one where local governance prioritized recovery of degraded reefs and two that prioritized minimizing recovery time, where countries either operated independently or collaborated. The regional collaboration scenario selected remote areas for conservation with uneven national responsibilities and spatial coverage, which could undermine collaboration. There is the potential to achieve sustainable fisheries within a decade by promoting these pathways according to their social-ecological suitability.
authors.affiliation: Wildlife Conservation Society, Marine Programs, Coral Reef Conservation Project, Mombasa, Kenya.
authors.forename: Timothy R
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: McClanahan
authors.affiliation: Wildlife Conservation Society, Marine Programs, Coral Reef Conservation Project, Mombasa, Kenya.|Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environment Decisions, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia.|Department of Environmental Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales 2109, Australia.
authors.forename: Joseph M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Maina
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.|Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Nicholas A J
authors.initials: NA
authors.lastname: Graham
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environment Decisions, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia.|School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Kendall R
authors.initials: KR
authors.lastname: Jones
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D018533:Biomass; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D057894:Coral Reefs; D019156:Indian Ocean; D008954:Models, Biological