title: Solar pacing of storm surges, coastal flooding and agricultural losses in the Central Mediterranean.
abstract: Storm surges, leading to catastrophic coastal flooding, are amongst the most feared natural hazards due to the high population densities and economic importance of littoral areas. Using the Central Mediterranean Sea as a model system, we provide strong evidence for enhanced periods of storminess leading to coastal flooding during the last 4500 years. We show that long-term correlations can be drawn between storminess and solar activity, acting on cycles of around 2200-yr and 230-yr. We also find that phases of increased storms and coastal flooding have impacted upon mid- to late Holocene agricultural activity on the Adriatic coast. Based on the general trend observed during the second half of the 20(th) century, climate models are predicting a weakening of Mediterranean storminess. By contrast, our new data suggest that a decrease in solar activity will increase and intensify the risk of frequent flooding in coastal areas.
authors.affiliation: Université Paul Sabatier-Toulouse 3, EcoLab (Laboratoire d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Bâtiment 4R1, 118 Route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse cedex 9, France.|CNRS, EcoLab (Laboratoire d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), 31062 Toulouse cedex 9, France.|Institut Universitaire de France, Secteur Biologie-Médecine-Santé, 103 boulevard Saint Michel, 75005 Paris, France.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kaniewski
authors.affiliation: CNRS, Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement UMR6249, Université de Franche-Comté, UFR ST, 16 Route de Gray, 25030 Besançon, France.
authors.forename: Nick
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Marriner
authors.affiliation: Institut Universitaire de France, Secteur Biologie-Médecine-Santé, 103 boulevard Saint Michel, 75005 Paris, France.|Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, UM 34, Europôle de l'Arbois BP80, 13545 Aix-en-Provence, France.
authors.forename: Christophe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Morhange
authors.affiliation: University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, Department of Geography, Marulićev trg 19/II, 10 000 Zagreb, Croatia.
authors.forename: Sanja
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Faivre
authors.affiliation: Université Paul Sabatier-Toulouse 3, EcoLab (Laboratoire d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Bâtiment 4R1, 118 Route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse cedex 9, France.|CNRS, EcoLab (Laboratoire d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), 31062 Toulouse cedex 9, France.
authors.forename: Thierry
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Otto
authors.affiliation: Université Paul Sabatier-Toulouse 3, EcoLab (Laboratoire d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), Bâtiment 4R1, 118 Route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse cedex 9, France.|CNRS, EcoLab (Laboratoire d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), 31062 Toulouse cedex 9, France.
authors.forename: Elise
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Van Campo