title: Predicting the geographical distributions of the macaque hosts and mosquito vectors of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in forested and non-forested areas.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic pathogen, transmitted among macaques and to humans by anopheline mosquitoes. Information on P. knowlesi malaria is lacking in most regions so the first step to understand the geographical distribution of disease risk is to define the distributions of the reservoir and vector species.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used macaque and mosquito species presence data, background data that captured sampling bias in the presence data, a boosted regression tree model and environmental datasets, including annual data for land classes, to predict the distributions of each vector and host species. We then compared the predicted distribution of each species with cover of each land class.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Fine-scale distribution maps were generated for three macaque host species (Macaca fascicularis, M. nemestrina and M. leonina) and two mosquito vector complexes (the Dirus Complex and the Leucosphyrus Complex). The Leucosphyrus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with disturbed, but not intact, forest cover (> 60% tree cover) whereas the Dirus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with 10-100% tree cover as well as vegetation mosaics and cropland. Of the macaque species, M. nemestrina was mainly predicted to occur in forested areas whereas M. fascicularis was predicted to occur in vegetation mosaics, cropland, wetland and urban areas in addition to forested areas.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The predicted M. fascicularis distribution encompassed a wide range of habitats where humans are found. This is of most significance in the northern part of its range where members of the Dirus Complex are the main P. knowlesi vectors because these mosquitoes were also predicted to occur in a wider range of habitats. Our results support the hypothesis that conversion of intact forest into disturbed forest (for example plantations or timber concessions), or the creation of vegetation mosaics, will increase the probability that members of the Leucosphyrus Complex occur at these locations, as well as bringing humans into these areas. An explicit analysis of disease risk itself using infection data is required to explore this further. The species distributions generated here can now be included in future analyses of P. knowlesi infection risk.
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, The Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK. catherinemoyes@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Catherine L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Moyes
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, The Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK.
authors.forename: Freya M
authors.initials: FM
authors.lastname: Shearer
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.
authors.forename: Zhi
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, The Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK.
authors.forename: Antoinette
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wiebe
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.
authors.forename: Harry S
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Gibson
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Sciences, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, OX1 0BP, UK.
authors.forename: Vincent
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Nijman
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, Faculty of Resource Science and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, 94300, Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Jayasilan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Mohd-Azlan
authors.affiliation: Departments of Zoology and Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada.|Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada.
authors.forename: Jedediah F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Brodie
authors.affiliation: Primate Research Unit, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, 10330, Thailand.
authors.forename: Suchinda
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Malaivijitnond
authors.affiliation: Fauna & Flora International, Singapore, 247672, Singapore.
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Linkie
authors.affiliation: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Kamiyamaguchi 2108-11, Hayama-cho, 240-0115, Kanagawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Hiromitsu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Samejima
authors.affiliation: Wildlife Conservation Society, Mpala Research Center, Nanyuki, 10400, Kenya.
authors.forename: Timothy G
authors.initials: TG
authors.lastname: O'Brien
authors.affiliation: Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Northern Territory, 0909, Australia.|Faculty of Science and Technology, Federation University Australia, Mt Helen, Victoria, 3350, Australia.
authors.forename: Colin R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Trainor
authors.affiliation: Evolutionary Morphology Section, Primate Research Institute, Kyoto University, Inuyama, Japan.
authors.forename: Yuzuru
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hamada
authors.affiliation: Field Conservation Program, S.P.E.C.I.E.S., Ventura, CA, USA.|Conservation Science Program, Tiger Creek Wildlife Refuge, Tyler, TX, USA.
authors.forename: Anthony J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Giordano
authors.affiliation: Wildlife Conservation Society, Mpala Research Center, Nanyuki, 10400, Kenya.
authors.forename: Margaret F
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Kinnaird
authors.affiliation: Eijkman-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Jakarta, Indonesia.
authors.forename: Iqbal R F
authors.initials: IR
authors.lastname: Elyazar
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.
authors.forename: Marianne E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Sinka
authors.affiliation: Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Indra
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Vythilingam
authors.affiliation: Department of Entomology, Faculty of Agriculture, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand.|Public Health and Malaria Control Department, International SOS, Jalan Kertajasa, Kuala Kencana, Papua, 99920, Indonesia.
authors.forename: Michael J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Bangs
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA.
authors.forename: David M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Pigott
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK.
authors.forename: Daniel J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Weiss
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology & Epidemiology Group, The Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK.
authors.forename: Nick
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Golding
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA.|Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7BN, UK.
authors.forename: Simon I
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: Hay
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001210:Asia, Southeastern / Q000453:epidemiology; D009033:Culicidae / Q000469:parasitology / Q000502:physiology*; D065928:Forests; D008251:Macaca; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000469:parasitology*; D008992:Monkey Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000469:parasitology*; D016790:Plasmodium knowlesi / Q000302:isolation & purification*
keywords: Deforestation; Species distribution model