title: Spatio-temporal modelling of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks.
abstract: We present and analyse data collected during a severe epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) that occurred between July and September 2000 in a region of northeastern Greece with strategic importance since it represents the southeastern border of Europe and Asia. We implement generic Bayesian methodology, which offers flexibility in the ability to fit several realistically complex models that simultaneously capture the presence of 'excess' zeros, the spatio-temporal dependence of the cases, assesses the impact of environmental noise and controls for multicollinearity issues. Our findings suggest that the epidemic was mostly driven by the size and the animal type of each farm as well as the distance between farms while environmental and other endemic factors were not important during this outbreak. Analyses of this kind may prove useful to informing decisions related to optimal control measures for potential future FMD outbreaks as well as other acute epidemics such as FMD.
authors.affiliation: Department of Rural Development,Democritus University of Thrace,Orestiada,Greece.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Malesios
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics,Athens University of Economics and Business,Athens,Greece.
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Demiris
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Veterinary Medicine,University of Thessaly,Karditsa,Greece.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kostoulas
authors.affiliation: Rural Economy and Veterinary Directorate,Region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace,Regional Unit of Evros,Orestiada,Greece.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Dadousis
authors.affiliation: Department of Rural Development,Democritus University of Thrace,Orestiada,Greece.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Koutroumanidis
authors.affiliation: Department of Rural Development,Democritus University of Thrace,Orestiada,Greece.
authors.forename: Z
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Abas
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D004777:Environment; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D029544:Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus / Q000502:physiology*; D015511:Goat Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D006041:Goats; D006115:Greece / Q000453:epidemiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D012756:Sheep; D012757:Sheep Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology
keywords: Bayesian regression models; FMD; kernels; type/size of farms