title: Prognostic relevance of motor talent predictors in early adolescence: A group- and individual-based evaluation considering different levels of achievement in youth football.
abstract: In the debate about the usefulness of motor diagnostics in the talent identification process, the prognostic validity for tests conducted in early adolescence is of critical interest. Using a group- and individual-based statistical approach, this prospective cohort study evaluated a nationwide assessment of speed abilities and technical skills regarding its relevance for future achievement levels. The sample consisted of 22,843 U12-players belonging to the top 4% in German football. The U12-results in five tests served as predictors for players' selection levels in U16-U19 (youth national team, regional association, youth academy, not selected). Group-mean differences proved the prognostic relevance for all predictors. Low individual selection probabilities demonstrated limited predictive values, while excellent test results proved their particular prognostic relevance. Players scoring percentile ranks (PRs) ≥ 99 had a 12 times higher chance to become youth national team players than players scoring PR < 99. Simulating increasing score cut-off values not only enhanced specificity (correctly identified non-talents) but also led to lower sensitivity (loss of talents). Extending the current research, these different approaches revealed the ambiguity of the diagnostics' prognostic relevance, representing both the usefulness and several pitfalls of nationwide diagnostics. Therefore, the present diagnostics can support but not substitute for coaches' subjective decisions for talent identification, and multidisciplinary designs are required.
authors.affiliation: a Institute of Sports Science , Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen , Tübingen , Germany.
authors.forename: Oliver
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Höner
authors.affiliation: a Institute of Sports Science , Eberhard Karls University of Tübingen , Tübingen , Germany.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Votteler
mesh_terms: D000124:Achievement; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D001076:Aptitude; D054874:Athletic Performance; D005080:Exercise Test / Q000592:standards*; D005538:Football; D005858:Germany; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009048:Motor Skills; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012420:Running; D012916:Soccer; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Motor diagnostics; sensitivity; soccer; specificity; talent prognosis