title: Disease Spread through Animal Movements: A Static and Temporal Network Analysis of Pig Trade in Germany.
abstract: Animal trade plays an important role for the spread of infectious diseases in livestock populations. The central question of this work is how infectious diseases can potentially spread via trade in such a livestock population. We address this question by analyzing the underlying network of animal movements. In particular, we consider pig trade in Germany, where trade actors (agricultural premises) form a complex network.
  
  
  
  The considered pig trade dataset spans several years and is analyzed with respect to its potential to spread infectious diseases. Focusing on measurements of network-topological properties, we avoid the usage of external parameters, since these properties are independent of specific pathogens. They are on the contrary of great importance for understanding any general spreading process on this particular network. We analyze the system using different network models, which include varying amounts of information: (i) static network, (ii) network as a time series of uncorrelated snapshots, (iii) temporal network, where causality is explicitly taken into account.
  
  
  
  We find that a static network view captures many relevant aspects of the trade system, and premises can be classified into two clearly defined risk classes. Moreover, our results allow for an efficient allocation strategy for intervention measures using centrality measures. Data on trade volume do barely alter the results and is therefore of secondary importance. Although a static network description yields useful results, the temporal resolution of data plays an outstanding role for an in-depth understanding of spreading processes. This applies in particular for an accurate calculation of the maximum outbreak size.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Epidemiology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute, Südufer 10, 17493 Greifswald, Germany.
authors.forename: Hartmut H K
authors.initials: HH
authors.lastname: Lentz
authors.affiliation: Institute of Theoretical Physics, Technische Universität Berlin, Hardenbergstraße 36, 10623 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Koher
authors.affiliation: Institute of Theoretical Physics, Technische Universität Berlin, Hardenbergstraße 36, 10623 Berlin, Germany.|Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Philippstraße 13, 10115 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Philipp
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Hövel
authors.affiliation: Institute of Epidemiology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute, Südufer 10, 17493 Greifswald, Germany.
authors.forename: Jörn
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gethmann
authors.affiliation: Institute of Epidemiology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute, Südufer 10, 17493 Greifswald, Germany.
authors.forename: Carola
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sauter-Louis
authors.affiliation: Unit Epidemiology, Statistics and Mathematical Modelling, Federal Research Institute for Risk Assessment, Alt-Marienfelde 17-21, 12277 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Selhorst
authors.affiliation: Institute of Epidemiology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute, Südufer 10, 17493 Greifswald, Germany.
authors.forename: Franz J
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Conraths
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D005858:Germany; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000635:transmission*