title: Strategic modeling of the neonatal nurse practitioner workforce.
abstract: Neonatal nurse practitioners (NNPs) play a vital role in the medical care of newborns and infants. There is expected to be a shortage of NNPs in the near future.
  
  
  
  To assess the present NNP workforce and study the impact of potential policy changes to alleviate forecasted shortages.
  
  
  
  We modeled the education and workforce system for NNPs. Forecasting models were combined with optimal decision-making to derive best-case scenario admission levels for graduate and undergraduate programs.
  
  
  
  Under the best-case scenario for the current system, the shortage of NNPs is expected to last 10 years. We analyzed the impact of improving the certification examination passing rate, increasing the annual growth rate of master's programs, and reducing the workforce annual attrition rate. We found that policy changes may reduce the forecasted shortage to 4 years.
  
  
  
  Present forecasts of demand for NNPs indicate that the existing workforce and education system will be unable to satisfy the growing demand. Policy changes may reduce the expected shortage and potentially improve access to care for newborns and infants.
authors.affiliation: Center for Naval Analyses, Arlington, VA. Electronic address: schellg@umich.edu.
authors.forename: Greggory J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Schell
authors.affiliation: Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
authors.forename: Mariel S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Lavieri
authors.affiliation: Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
authors.forename: Filip
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Jankovic
authors.affiliation: Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
authors.forename: Xiang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA.
authors.forename: Alejandro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Toriello
authors.affiliation: School of Nursing, Emory University, Atlanta, GA.
authors.forename: Kristy K
authors.initials: KK
authors.lastname: Martyn
authors.affiliation: Child Health Evaluation and Research Unit, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
authors.forename: Gary L
authors.initials: GL
authors.lastname: Freed
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006280:Health Workforce / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009722:Nurse Practitioners / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000639:trends*; D000072221:Nurses, Neonatal / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000639:trends*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014481:United States
keywords: Neonatal nurse practitioner; Workforce